No. China Is Not Going To Collapse... Yet 

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According to some RU-vid channels, China’s economy was supposed to collapse 45 times in the last week.

The amount of CHINA COLLAPSE IMMINENT and CHINA IS GOING DOWNHILL content coming out recently is still pretty funny to me. Always happy to see a channel like EE put some actual reason to the noise

As Chinese, there is a funny meme on Chinese social media about how Western media reports on China😂. That is: on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, China will soon collapse; on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, China will be a threat; on Sunday... ummmm, let's think about how to report China next week. Don't worry; we've far gotten used to it. 🤣🤣🤣

Great video like always. I live in Australia and just came back from a business trip of over 15 cities in China, I may be able to provide some insights in how the country changed since the pandemic. The issues you pointed out are true and are well acknowledged by both the common people and various levels of government. I spoke to people from mayors to lower rank government officers, from cab drivers to exporters, from students to university professors, in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, or small towns with population of 50K. The consensus is that they all know the economy is slowing down, for example, the mayor was worried about not being able to sell enough houses than before, but knows very well that the previous mode was not sustainable, so he is trying to encourage eco-friendly industries, build national parks, modern agriculture in his city. Other cities I visited would have new high-tech industries being built everywhere, the support from the government for new technologies and R&D is unpreceded. So what I can see is China is changing from the old real estate driven economy to a more high-tech high-efficient economy. It's probably not going to turn the whole country around by tomorrow, and it is probably going to be very wasteful and painful, but I think they will make it, just as they did before. One obvious example is how streets look like between the China and Australia, of course except for better and newer roads, probably half of the cars on the streets of any cities are electric, compared to probably less than 10% in countries like Australia or US. This can be regarded as the success of the continuous government support for electric vehicles over the last 5 years. From a consumer point of view, those new brands are quite competitive in any counties, they are not the best ones in the market, but cost effective and with sometimes very cool designs. The economy in China has overcame much worse situations before, I don't think this one is any different. The government has policies for those issues since before the pandemic to prevent actual crisis from happening. The economy will probably going to be stagnant for some time, before it finds another growth curve. Another thing that you didn't mention is the consensus from top to bottom, that they have faith in the country and even to the CCP, which is very rare compared to most other countries in the world now. You may argue that brain wash in an era like this will backfire and eventually people will wake up and demand democracy, but what if they keep deliver in the past four decades? In a situation like this, having faith in the economy is the most powerful tool that China has against decline, when people know things will turn around in a few years time, they will have much higher tolerance to hardships.

Haha thanks for the shout-out. I think it is healthy to see multiple videos on the same topic that take slightly different angles. For example, you are right to point out that Japan style stagnation is much worse for China than it is for Japan. Not entirely sure about the inflation situation though. Hyperinflation is 50% PER MONTH and as you said means game over for the USA... So, I stand by calling hyperinflation in the USA just as ridiculous as China's collapse in 30 days:)

I've been hearing about "China's imminent collapse" for over a decade, I remember it began around 2010 or even earlier with the ghost cities and it's been going on ever since. Now with data showing signs that China's economy might be in trouble, some analysts are back at it saying China's economy is on the brick of a mega crisis that could lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. I don't know if there's any real chance of a mega crisis like this, but a few years ago I came to the conclusion that this hypothesis was as much as a possibility as some people's wishful thinking.

Last few minutes of this video is the key! Collectively speaking, most of us, except those rich politicians, won’t benefit from China’s economic collapse, we will be a part of its collateral damages too. Great video!

Thanks you for actually bringing this up. I've been trying to ask creators as to how exactly they come up with those ridiculous numbers and so far i've been greeted with silence.

Love the longer video format, allows for everything to be discussed more throughly, instead of just an overview.

As someone who works in markets, this doco is spot on and impressively put together. You put most paid-for research to shame!

I really appreciate how informative this channel is while remaining free from the exaggerations and overly dramatic statements made by many on the internet. Keep up the great content!

I lived and worked in Hong Kong and China for 11 years and I completely agree. The silly bantar about China collapsing is more to do with a desire to see them fall then a reality. They are a huge country with wealth generated over a short period. With that comes corruption, dodgy policies and all the things you have mentioned. I agree China will have a difficult economic time ahead but in the end China is here to stay and will remain a major power on the World stage.

Kind of weird that this is happening, especially seeing younger people talk about it because this is like the fourth or fifth time a big China collapse news cycle has gone on.

Thank you for creating a counterweight to "Business Basics"

Anglos are seething over a rising China I love it

Just a suggestion: The impact of expansionary monetary policy on inflation can be markedly affected by whether the economy is primarily financial or industrial in nature, the degree of economic maturity, and the degree of wealth concentration. If we are talking about a young, industrial economy with relatively low levels of wealth concentration, then yes money flows from the central bank, to the banks, and then into new factories, services, research and development. New, successful, products and services encourage more market entrants into a growing market; there is more hiring overall, wages and standards of living go up, and there is classic demand-pull inflation. If, however, we are talking about a mature, financial economy with relatively high levels of wealth concentration, then expansionary monetary policy will tend to behave differently. Plutocratic capture of the government will tend to be greater and the effects of policy will be more oriented to rentiers. Money would flow from the central bank, to the banks, and then into asset classes held by the capital class. While that will lead to particular classes of asset appreciation, it will not necessarily lead to new factories, services, research and development. Therefore, there will be few, if any, new and growing markets leading to wage growth and increased demand from the consumer outside of available consumer credit. Monetary expansion, however, can and is used as a popular excuse for all manner of cartel pricing, rent-seeking behavior, and proletariat austerity.

you can live on 14k a year if the cost of living in china is significantly low compared to the west. the average income in here in the UK is significantly less than America (And we are feeling it) but no one says we are a poor country.

very thoughtful video. Mirrors my sentiments exactly. Well done!

Awesome video. Love your content. Thanks!

There is a funny Chinese saying: "An impoverished camel is still bigger than a horse", which I think applies very well here. Something that size is not going to go down easily, quickly, or quietly. If it does, anyone tied to it, and in today's globalized economy, that is practically everyone, will likely suffer injury as it thrashes on the way down.

I moved to China in 2003 and Shanghai has been my home ever since. It has been a great time to be here: Olympics, World Expo and a population full of optimism because every year had been better than the last. The last couple years with COVID, decoupling with the world and the recent lockdowns mark a new phase. This summer I've attended farewell parties for fellow expats on a near weekly basis. I withhold my temptation to write a long diatribe to focus on a couple of points: 1) There may be only one party that shows a united front, but if you look at what various leaders say you will notice divergence. Xi has shifted from a pragmatic, anti-corruption leader to an ideologue. His faction has already said that they think prices of raising children has become too high and are preventing the births that they want to sustain the population/workforce. If you have seen some of Li Keqiang's recent meetings, you know his faction is REALLY worried about getting the economy going again. He basically implored cadres at all levels to pull out all of the stops to get business going again. With nearly 20% unemployment for recent grads, the solution is economic. The CCP is one brand, but they have priority differences and approaches that vary widely. 2) The Chinese protest, and get heard, in their own way. It's different than in the West but it happens nonetheless. From recent "lay flat" trends, to running businesses in COVID with the lobby lights off to avoid fines, the locals are quite resourceful and pragmatic. If there is a loophole or workaround, they will find it and exploit it without hesitation. Unlike other places where the law is the LAW, here it's listen to what they say but then watch what people actually do. Several years ago, China made announcement that they would start issuing fines for running YELLOW traffic lights. Articles around the world talked about it. Guess what? Chinese people hated it, the gov't sensed that and left it on the books without implementing it. Similarly, we've been told for years that we would start paying property tax here in Shanghai. The tax bureau literally has turned people away who showed up trying to pay the tax because there was too much push back after it was announced and they relented. Do people have less freedoms here than in many Western countries? Yes. Are they powerless sheep who eat up propaganda and do everything they are told? Not even remotely.

Always interesting, thank you.

A well written video, I appreciate that!

I sat in on a class at Stanford and the professor who was originally from Taiwan explained the cultural nuance in Asia of the focus being on maintaining what’s been grown which is quite different from our western growth economics model. I think there’s room in the conversation around ‘collapsing economies’ as well to creating understanding around nuanced definitions of “thriving.”

I loved this thank you. I don't understand economics & a lot of other related areas but I watch what I find interesting enough that I can learn. This longer format helped me so much, because so much was explained & brought together. I feel like I understand this video woo!

Excellent, crystal clear! Many thanks

These videos are the best! Thanks

Wow, this was like a mini docu, great work to you and your team, you guys have been really productive lately. You make it easy for me to follow and understand these topics if though I am clueless about economics😂

Let's hope your video will be in the millions of views like the other ones you've mentioned! And let's hope that EE won't be collapsing in 36 days and 7 hours.

Thank you. So well done. Your contribution is appreciated.

Very good conclusive message….

I've watched countless videos that say China is going to collapse, from those that say within a year to a decade. But I've noticed that most of the videos are usually delivered by channels or media that have an anti-China track record, and the content is usually very biased. Others are people who present videos that please their viewers (who have negative sentiments on China) to earn money from youtube.

Seeing you deal with the situation of 'getting scooped' with a video idea by just praising them and shouting them out is awesome

I agree with you, though this is going to be a rough winter.

Thanks for the reasonable, detailed, pragmatic viewpoint

China is like the black knight from Monty Python series. No matter what crisis hits them like the Ever Grande crisis and Zero Covid Policy they will just tell the world that it's "Just a flesh wound".

You just made everyone at the Financial Times cry with your title

I just LOVE how you say ‘mate’ at the end of your videos, it’s just so quintessentially Australian! Plus you’re always balanced towards reality rather than clickbait Touché mate!!

great video. thanks!

"If the economy is not growing, corruption will eat it alive" See South Africa's economy.😔

I think a major problem with all of these commentaries on China's future have to do with arguments about whether or not China will "collapse" as opposed to addressing exactly how bad their recession might be. By how much will China's GDP likely contract over the next two years? 5%? 10%? 30%? How much would a 5% contraction in the world's number two economy affect the rest of us vs. a 30% contraction? I think you could safely argue that the United States economy didn't exactly "collapse" between 1929 and 1932, but things got pretty bad both in the US and around the world as a result of that recession. I'm not saying that will be the overall effect of China's recession, but I do have trouble believing that China's economic downturn won't have significant effects on the global economy as a whole.

Good message at the end.

On RU-vid, China has been experiencing economic collapse since 20 years ago until now

I think the biggest issue with the housing bubble in China is that its combined with population decline. Rapid population readjustment. So instead of real estate losing some value as happens during normal real estate cycles, the loss of value in Chinas case will be extreme.

Thank you so much for sharing such topic ❤️

Terrific documentary, thank you kindly.

Great video, thank you.

thanks for making this, because as you said, there are SO many articles writing the same side...that's probably not going to happen. A more balanced analysis like this is a breath of fresh air.

There is also a difference between Japan and China is that China has a stronger military force than Japan and it is hard to force china to sign deal similar with Plaza Accord that force of appreciation of JPY making jp company less competitive.

Thank You! I've definetly been keeping a closer eye on the Chinese since I subscribed to your channel

I think one of the biggest factors within developing nations tolerance to financial downturn is how big corruption is

Monday, Wednesday, Friday: Collapse Day; Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday:Threat Day; Sunday : off-day

Very well produced!

The questions you ask in each video are usually spot on with the questions that I've asked myself in the recent past, and your analysis and explanation of the underlying principles is always informative! Great video as always.

Thank you.

Tbh, the way people have been using "collapse" over the decades has made the word, more like stagnation than full blown collapse... been seeing videos since 2016 saying the US will collapse every single year and even from the dawn of our country being made, people have always been saying that. so am totally numb to the word collapse. And in Chinas case i also see stagnation not a collapse.

China is one of the most persistent nation I've ever known. A simple economic crisis won't collapse them.

Everyone: Talking about China Me: Why she stopped at middle of traffic 16:44 🍵

Excellent video.

I really like how the videos uses the sources (news articles) to help justify the argument. It really adds legitimacy to the videos and adds value compared to scare mongering ones. Keep up the work and thanks for these videos. I’d like a speculation one about if where the west is going in terms of higher rates and where that will lead us.

Fantastic video. The lessons in the end about the click-bait and collapse are very important, those hoping for them need to go outside and touch grass. Keep up the good work.

Love that you keep your integrity when making videos. Many of the "China is collapsing" channels are blatantly ridiculous. I've been on a mass spree of telling youtube to never recommend those channels again. EE, on the other hand, is always a bastion of reasonability.

You might want to update this video....particularly after it collapses

Well said

I love when he talks about the theory of monetary policy as if Keyensian economics is the obvious bog standard, the only way to structure a healthy and normalized economy. Never once has he considered maybe the "medicine" is also the ailment.

Maybe its the same experts who thought that Russia would collpase after sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion.. That was an epic failure

Thank you very much for making this vdo, this very kind of vdo that make sense!!! Very much appreciated the amount of work that would have to put in to make it. 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

I've noticed heaps of those videos popping up in the algorithm. It's good to see a cool head discussing the topic

Your last part is so true. Remember the last time in the early to mid 1900's, when a certain country face complete and utter collapse? And people were desperate? I'm thinking about that one mustache Austrian who took over beer country basically in an instant. Lol

Isn't China the only economy in 2020-2021 that didn't go into deficit and actually see growth? Technically recession didn't happen to China. But to most other countries in the world.

The shot at 19:16 of the empty car park at Kmart while you're talking about downturns is so depressing, I don't know why

excellent balanced video.

This was so excellent. Probably one of the best you've ever done. Great insights that sparked much conversation in my friend group about the US collapse headlines as well.