Odds of Winning the Rugby World Cup 2027 - 3+ Years Out 

The Boks will be in the running, no doubt about it. The most important thing would be maintaining the level of quality and depth in the tight-5 we've had for the last while. Many of those guys are getting older and we cannot expect them to be on the same level in 2027. For my money, France has to be the favourite. Their average age was 26 last year, with around 35-40 caps. In 2027 they will all be around 30 years old, with an average of 70-80 caps. Prime World Cup-winning material. Given the quality and depth of their team and their domestic scene, they will be seriously tough to beat.

I think the All Blacks and Springboks will both be pushing one another to a higher level than the rest .. The Rivalry is truly alive and well .

I feel like Fiji definitely improve everytime they’re on the world stage but at the same time manage to drop a game you wouldn’t expect.

Good to see that Ireland aren't entirely out of the conversation. Despite the loss of Sexton, there still is a lot of talent likely to come with us to the next World Cup. This year will certainly be a transition year as the team adjusts but I think we still stand a chance at the Six Nations (maybe the tour not so much, but still a lot of oppurtunity in South Africa for us to succeed). Don't know how I feel about NZ being favourites, but I don't think it means too much considering thats how it usually is so far out.

Boks are gonna be going through a transition period, new players coming in but at least a lot of them have had alignment training already and have been introduced to the Bok system. We'll have to see what happens with Rassie after 2025, but if he stays on for 2027 i think we have a good shot at going far in the comp. Will be interesting to see what happens with Jacques, i think his Leinster contract runs out in time for him to join the Boks in 2027

If any team is gonna go 3 in a row in my lifetime, its gonna be the Boks in 2027. After that i reckon the chances of anyone doing a three-peat reduce drastically

Dude, after a long day of work. Only thing I look forward to are your videos!! All the way from South Africa! Well done on the content - very fair, unbiased analysis.

Love It!!! Our Boks are the most successful underdogs in sporting history.... and we like it that way 👍🏻👍🏻 Julle Weet Nie Wat Ons Weet Nie !!!

@ 6:34 Love it - Classic!🤣 Nice segment Mark 👊

With the draw being closer to the world cup and the new format adding an extra round of knockout games, I’m excited to see (hopefully) the most competitive tournament yet.

I initially saw the title and thought "well, its surely just going to be the finishing order of the last world cup? ". But this was a very interesting surprise. Great content!

Ad always very interesting stats Mark!Lets remember to re-visit this in 3 years time!

Having the underdogs tag play in to the hands off Boks. This is great prediction. Keep it up.

Fiji is going to win the next world cup 🎉🎉🎉

It suits the Boks mentality to be under dogs (or rather never be favourites). Objectively speaking (with all the respect in the world for the ABs) , in the week of the RWC final most pundits picked ABs to win even though the previous time the two teams met was at Twickenham. Same with 2019, Boks underdogs after England beat ABs in the semis, Boks win. Going to be interesting with ABs going through a transition phase, but I guess same for the Boks. Two home tests for SA this year

Can’t believe the World Cup hype is starting already. 😂

As an Ireland fan I think its a fair summation. More than anything its based on historical trends and pedigree. I think the systems are in place for Ireland to do well far into the future and we will break the glass ceiling at some point. Also happy enough for Ireland to be talked down a bit.

I would mostly love Ireland to get to a semi final next WC. Harsh sounding, but it would do the world of good to get rid of the "Curse" and stop the terrible jokes from other rugby "fans". Gonna hope the draw is better this time.

Bokke love being under-estimated, bring it!!

Imagine. Razor vs. Rassie. Even just this year already...

So good! The world starting to underestimate the Boks....AGAIN....this world cup cycle. As a Bok fan, we can't thank the bookies enough. Underdogs for life ;)

It’s obviously too early. But given this will be close to home for the ABs I can understand them being favs at moment. But let’s see how the next year goes. I agree the wallabies have a good chance at home.

I think that France's chances are underrated here. They have a very young team of superstars and giving them another 4 years in the oven will make them even better than 2023. The core of there team will mostly remain unchanged and they can build off it. The Springboks, AB's and Ireland are going to have a lot of turnover in their squad over the next 4 years. Many key players are on their way out already. Im an ardent Bok fan but i have a feeling that France will take it in 2027.

The Springboks have a bad winning record down under. Plus we had a poor 2003 & 2011 rwc when it was played in Aus and NZ. So I don't think we'll make it 3 in a row.

First ever triple world cup with Rassie, he will go on to be the greatest ever unbdoubtedly with his team if the Boks win it again.

Great seeing a hint of what a 24-team RWC would look like down under while calculating the odds of winning the whole shebang. Not surprising that the hosts themselves aren't favorites but there's still time for them to fix everything from the ground up with new RA appointments, most importantly Coaching Director so that they stop losing top local coaches overseas. Ironic that NZ are favorites ahead of SA just because Razor is at the helm, we'll see how it goes then for him in Year 1 as All Blacks coach.

Hi Mark. Happy new year Back watching. Your analysis, food for thought and further discussion. Good to be back. Waiting for Super Rugby.

commenting before I watch your post, but I absolutely love it when SA has long odds, I love it when we are written off, I love it when people talk us down, criticize us for our playing style, its called winning rugby, call us cheats, want to change the rules because they suit the Springboks. When will they learn, change the rules tell us its because of you and we will adapt. Give us long odds please, we love it, we embrace it, victory is sweeter when you come from behind. Honestly the mindset of South Africans benefits from a scrap a struggle a fight. One point, one point, one point. bring it on. Now lets hear what the bookies have to say...The springboks fear nothing. Everything is going to pot at home, but the Bokke with their diversity and spirit show us the way to a better future, if we pull together. We may not win sure its sport, but we WILL try harder than the rest, its what we have and the players know it.

I think the reason the Springboks aren't favourites is because the chances of winning a third RWC in a row is extremely unlikely - never been done before.

France surely should be higher….. young team that will be even more experienced in 2027

Another rebuild for the ABs towards 2027 the boks are riding shotgun and as a kiwi the favs to do a 3peat in my opinion,ABs once again behind the 8 ball playing catch up nothing has suggested to me even with razor we're gonna win it,just cant see it 😕

I think All Blacks and Springboks at 1 and 2 seems about right. Let’s see after the next series. But my money is on the AB’s for a huge come back. You could see the pain on the players faces after the final. They will not have forgotten that. Another final between my two favourite teams! Mouth watering prospect.

Argentina playing the championship gives it an advantage that the other teams in the north do not have. He only needs one more step to unleash his talent.

Thought the U20 WC results would tighten the spread a bit more with the top 4. Remember odds are also a product of the weight of money. A big bet can move odds and be a product of loyalty rather than expectation. 2% should be 50/1. 34/1 is 2.9%. Ik there small percentages but its 50% more winnings if your that brave !!!

1st team to go 3 in a row. I'm calling it

Putting my money on France Best u18 Bestu20 I could see the important players staying i reckon them ofcourse the Boks as well and England I reckon France and England final As a saffa im happy with a third place

SA and NZ will always be the favourites going into the World Cup. I'd love to see my own country (Ireland) win it, but I think any nation winning it outside of the NZ and SA domination and Australia would be a great achievement.

I do think this is the ABs cup, right across the way from you, new coaches

The Mighty All Blacks v Springboks final, AB’s winning. Wallabies no where near, the NRL and Aussie Rules have put paid to any resurgence of rugby down there

You see him in sevens, he is already the main contender.

I'd love the hat-trick but I reckon the AB's will have something to say. Will Australia get their bite back though? That's the difficult bet to make.

😂 Saffa’s love to be an underdog

On the one hand, it's good to see the bookies being (somewhat) optimistic about the Wobs, you can see why, some good noises coming from ARU backed up by actual change, a rumored list of very good potential candidates for coach and the spine of a good team. On the other hand, a 10% chance really isn't that great. It's pretty obvious that the ABs and boks are always the teams to beat and we don't know what Ireland and France are going to look like from here yet. It's probably the host advantage pushing them but I would've had England at least ahead of the Wobs with Wales and Fiji and Argentina not that far behind.

Boks to go 3 in a row rassie is a brilliant tactician.

England has acquired Felix Jones, that is huge, they would be my 3rd favourite, after NZ/Boks

Even though it’s 7’s, are you going to be covering rugby at the olympics for this year?

Right now i think France win the next world cup. Their depth of quality is insane! Of course New Zealand and South Africa will be in the mix but i hope someone else wins for a change.

i'm also going to add, i think once the draw is announced a lot of money will go on or off South Africa if their path means they will face Australia in the quarters and semi, probably even for the final. Although that could go for everyone, one factor I think in Austalia's favour is they are very good at home, not unlike the Fijian super team. But SA especially have a poor record in Australia.

Getting me excited for the RWC 2027 already Mark?

put Argentina. of the last 5 world championships he finished semis in 3

Have to have the top four as SA, NZ, France and Ireland, and not necessarily in that order. England and Australia on an outside chance - especially England have what it takes to improve tremendously before then. Australia will need to show signs of life in 2025 for me to think they could make it past the first knockout round

Pretty happy to watch France is low in the odds. Let's give the favorites "tag" to SA and Nz, we all saw it means nothing in World Cups. And i don't even speak about the rugby quality... As SA proved, a very efficient defence and referee adaptation can give you 2 cups. World Rugby rules updates will also influence these odds in the 3 following years.

France beat South Africa Ref was a shocker when south African knocked the ball to prevent a try

Surely this guy must have shares with rebel sports he always has the latest jersey or maybe his sponsored by the briscoes lady 😂😂😂 hope you give us a shout out loud on your next podcast and let us know if the briscoes lady is or is not your sponsor

i know every team and therefore money going on them will change week by week in what is sure to be a 4 year of ups and downs for all team, but I think the odds on NZ will be quite scitzophrenic and have the biggest contrast in fan sentiment each week. Razor will be the messiah and anybody not betting on them stupid one week, then a false messiah who was spoilt by the crusaders particularly with Mo'unga and Whitelock and the forward pack he inherited the next.

I think NZ will as always go in as (co-) favorites, even if they take their time to get into tournament shape like last year they'll very likely respond present when it counts. SA will probably be able to replace some of the oldies that are close to retirement now or just retired, they'll plan long term for 2027. And I think France would be the third favorite, as their core squad is damn good and will have learned a lot by 2027. Their defeat against SA last year will likely have taught them some stuff and maybe motivate them to be better and play safer for the win. Final 2027 will be France vs SA/NZ I reckon.

Same 4 favourites will be my guess. Don't see England in the top 4 unless they change coaching ticket.

We don't want the favourites tag, how dare you bestow it on us. We thrive on having something to prove and being the plucky underdogs.

The last 2 world cups Springboks have knocked out the hosts 😢😮

Cannot wait for South Africa to host a WC tournament again. Variables such as food preparation to our adversaries will surely improve odds of another WC crown.

13% for ireland to win,i fancy us 100% for quaters again,consistancy is key :)

I wanna see how they southern hemisphere teams perform for a season of full rugby before i make a decision. Too early to tell for me

Nz and Sa will be atleast one of the finalists, and they'll play either eachother, France or England in the final. France have the best players, SA are the best coached and the most winning experience and some great player, hard to tell NZ but they're always there or abouts and theyve got Razor. England always get to the final stages and have some great young players.

Springboks. All the way. 3 in a row!!!🤗👍👍👍

I predict England will end up becoming just annoyingly hard to beat under Borthwick. The rugby will be awful, but they will probably find ways to just grind people down. The Wallabies have incentive: avenge the humiliation of their pool exit, and being hosts so they'll be motivated to turn things around. They could well make the final though I don't think they'll win it. France will struggle, most likely Galthie won't make it to 2027 and French rugby will descend into one its periodic phases of civil war, probably until the next time they host. SA will spend the next 4 years losing pretty consistently away from home but will mount a stern challenge, although the age of their squad and the wear of so much traveling over the years will take a toll. Semifinal for them. Wales, Ireland and Scotland will plug away and threaten to derail one or two traditional heavyweights but won't get beyond the quarters. Fiji and Japan will excite but won't be able to seriously trouble anyone. Lastly, and it brings me no pleasure to say so, but NZ will exit at the pool stage for the first time, unless given an extremely friendly draw: their dearth of world class playmaking talent and lack of depth up front gets them bounced early, and "Razor" quits on the flight home. Just my predictions, and (mostly) just for the laugh 😅

Thank you As a SA Rugby fan Well What can i say ?

We going back to back to back🇿🇦

SA don't mind not being favourites because that's when we thrive...to proof a point. The water boy loves a challenge 🏆🏆🏆🏆.

wow pool stage knock out Italy, Japan, Tonga, Samoa, and all those other small teams quarter final knout outs Australia , Scotland , Wales , Fiji, Argentina, Japan semi final knock outs England, Ireland, Australia, Argentina, new Zealand, France, South Africa finalist favourites new Zealand, south Africa, England, France

Australia roughly on a par with Ireland? WTF??

ARGENTINA???????? Losing all respect here TIM.

i would not be in shock ifnthe boks went three

The wallabies are so screwed. They don’t even have a coach yet and their players are all going to go to league. They have no money, no skipper, no viewership, no talent pipeline, no buzz, and they just gutted themselves with the Eddie debacle and the worst World Cup in their history. They’re cooked.

At this point, I still think South Africa will win the next World Cup. I think runner up will be France. 3rd place play off will be Ireland V New Zealand

I think the boks would definitely won the 1987 world cup also with players like Naas Botha, Daniie Gerber, Carl du Plessis,etc

Brutal draws. Only interesting 😂competitive groups are E and F.

Jeez…ALREADY😂

I think France will take it, they’ll have the same spine and squad in 2027, who’ll be really up for this. Everyone else will have to rebuild whereas France do not, barring any career ending injuries of course

Honestly mate, this is very premature as we don't know the DRAW. A favorable draw saw England, who were underrated, come 3rd. Borthwick did very well though. Having said all that the All Blacks and Springboks have to be the favourites. With Robertson taking over, I expect the AllBlacks to regain dominant form. Ireland and France will still be in with a chance though. But, as I said, the draw is a big factor. If the Boks or ABs run into each other in a QF or SF then everyone else's chances rise.

As a saffa the only countries from the top bunch that dont give us grief is the Celtic sides and Italy so im not suprised that we're not favorite's with the bookies not to mention with world rugby themselves having basically not received any awards despite winning the tournament which is wild

ABs were dominant in a decade where the rest of the so called favourites were shat. Didn't make them great just made them better I mean they trashed Boks, ran over wallabies and played pool with Pumas. The rest of the world finally caught up. The have generational players in their teams rn but so does everyone else.

Can wait to see another all SH semi final, and Bok v AB final. Maybe this cycle, the Europeans will have finally learnt that when it comes to rugby, they should shut up, and learn from the best. But I doubt it.

Take a photo of that and check every year

It is long way to go. Ireland,France,South Africa and New Zealand. There is not much difference between these teams. Let’s hope the TMO improves. Let the players on the field decide the game. Not blokes off the field. The All Blacks should win with Razor Robertson as the coach.

If rassie stays head coach to 2027 mark my words South Africa eill win again. If the three peat happens then i highly doubt we will ever see it happen again. Might see a double win every couple decaded but never a 3 peat

about right I think

Awesome, don't give us(SA) the favorites tag, it's like a curse for the RWC 😂

Hmmmm. Interesting, a lot can happen in three years...

If France can make their U20 superstars clik in the Senior team (some already have), then with the core of their actual best player still there by 2027 their team could be stronger than 2023. No pressure from Homeground, i'd say it'll be between them and NZ.

honestly as a proud bok supporter I will always have SA's back, but it would be nice to see an northern hemisphere team take the trophy for once. I also wanted to ask about the tournament that involves the 6 nations squads and new zealand and south africa that is apparently coming in a years time. like a mini world cup, I read about it on bing, does anyone know what thats all about?

people love to hate on the boks... thats why they arent the fav even though they have the best record by miles

Let’s not forget SA have a 100% record in finals….but I prefer them goin in as underdogs

We don't want the favorites tag 😂 we suck when when the favorites... Give us the underdog tag thank you 👌 also please give us a team that can beat us in the pool stages 🙏

Boks to go....back....to BacK to BACKKKKKK BABY

The fact that we won back to back titles means nothing. Yes we stand a chance to do it again theres no evidence to say that its gna be a high chance of it happening again. Alot can change in 3 yrs.

These rankings have little to do with the relative virtues of the teams. They reflect the bookies ideas of how they can make money. That depends, of course, on where the money is coming from.. 3 years out it is all speculative and meaningless. Until the draw is made and there is some indication of how team building is going, it will remain meaningless.

should be 75% Allblacks. Razor is a monster.

The mighty ref?????😢😢😢😢😢

Springboks do better as underdogs. We will cede favorite status to New Zealand, who are our betters until we get our tails up at World Cups.

Wales bro