Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting

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In this video I explain how to create a forecasting model in Excel for a data set that involves both trend and seasonality. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
I posted a follow up video in which you can handle multiple forecasts at the same time for multiple SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).
• Seasonality and Trend ...
An alternative method could be to use a multiple linear regression model. And I think the regression model is more practical. Yes, I have recorded a video for that as well. The link for the video is • Seasonality and Trend ...
These videos are created for the students at The College at Brockport, State University of New York. However anyone can benefit from them as they should work for any Operations Management class.

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9 фев 2017

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Комментарии : 353

@goforward12ify 4 года назад

THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES

@arifrayhan1126 3 года назад

exactly

@AnkitPatel234 3 года назад

Exactly. Love from India.

@OscarFromIndia 3 года назад

I agree

@Rajdeepdey943 2 года назад

Absolutely

@zazisosibo6015 2 года назад

Nothing but the truth there.I passed an interview practical with this video.

@fabianl9465 3 года назад

This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there

@fsociety_ Год назад

Hy, did this help you in planning in real life? I am a Production Planner myself and I want to know which forecast method people normally use in forecasting demand in real life scenarios.

@randominternetviewer166 11 месяцев назад

@@fsociety_ It depends on the data. This one he presented works well if the data has obvious repeatable patterns that repeat every year, like the one shown in the chart. If it doesnt have that, this method will easily fail.

@jamesjennings9438 4 года назад

This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!

@97NRBhgfdkjsvfdkjl 3 года назад

Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.

@debanshumajumdar9790 3 года назад

Dear Mustafa sir, the whole RU-vid community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have. Thank you sir

@mcanbolat 3 года назад

Thank you!

@jabulanisello3712 4 года назад

This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.

@bensmith6987 5 лет назад

This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.

@anneliesehanson5256 3 года назад

This video was so incredibly helpful! I love how you explained everything.

@matiuszhu8967 3 года назад

Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview. LIFESAVERRRRR

@abhinavgupta1195 3 года назад

You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.

@shubhamraje6122 3 года назад

Very well depicted. Follows all baby steps. Must watch for a newbie learner!

@josephmastropietro5810 2 года назад

Incredibly helpful. Great walkthrough, I was able to replicate the process with my data and drive some great discussion.

@dwnttttttyyyyypppppp 2 года назад

Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.

@iPururin 4 года назад

Straightforward and practical presentation. Thank you.

@godfreyharris4582 2 года назад

Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.

@peterdoherty4558 3 года назад

It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!

@mcanbolat 3 года назад

Thank you Peter! Nice to hear from you!

@selimcanpolat8664 3 года назад

just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!

@michaelyounes29 4 года назад

Absolutely fantastic explanation. You sir are a star!

@Chanheegogo 4 года назад

Thank you so much for sharing this technique. Very clear and simple to understand for even beginner for demand planning Thank you so much. I will try to utilize this method in my workplace

@daniel_ptt Год назад

Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos

@zorkminer 3 года назад

I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.

@mcanbolat 3 года назад

Thank you!

@Kentucky-ev7bd 4 года назад

Very nice!! Love it!! The only thing I would say add is a quick explanation of key terms. Slope, intercept, seasonality.

@deuskrieg5635 2 года назад

This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.

@mcanbolat 2 года назад

Thanks.

@utopia800 5 лет назад

Thanks a lot man, amazing tutorial!!!! So happy to find this :) just simply brilliant

@shikhajaiswal5148 2 года назад

This is the best video I came across on model for forecast

@atgny 4 года назад

Thank you for this very detailed review of forecasting! Amazing!!!! :)

@jbyxxx 4 года назад

Thanks for such detailed explanation. I was looking for something else but now know something new :)

@kellyzimmermann3391 3 года назад

This has helped me so much!! Thank YOU Mustafa!

@y020380 4 года назад

This was extremely helpful, THANKYOU!

@qianwu1873 6 лет назад

This is exactly what I was looking for!! Super helpful for my upcoming interview.

@oddmik7273 4 года назад

Bravo Monsieur, Thank you for your explications.

@OldMenAreHip1 2 года назад

Incredible vid. Helped me on my exam with seasonal linear trend forecasting

@southbayeric 6 лет назад

Great example my friend. Very useful!

@ahammadgalib5810 4 года назад

Awesome video, easy explanation, great presentation. Thank you very much. 👍

@Rabixter 2 года назад

Nice one, I liked the seasonality index idea. It's very simple but still gives a decent accuracy.

@rounaksinghbuttar9083 3 года назад

God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.

@mcanbolat 3 года назад

Thank you!

@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030 3 года назад

Amazing video, i was looking for something like this for a while. Subscribed.

@dianap.carlos4934 2 года назад

Excellent video. Thank you very much for your help Dr. Canbolat.

@drinkbeerandchillwithmzohm4507 Месяц назад

You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿

@ektajain334 3 года назад

AMAZING EXPLANATION- also learnt renaming of a range. thanks sir

@kamsun508 6 лет назад

dude, it is a amazing video , very helpful. thank you a lot

@PradeepRamesh-ew7uh Месяц назад

Simple to understand and Great video

@haveyoumetpia 3 года назад

I got everything that I need. Well explained. Thank you to the creator of this video. New subscriber here 🤗

@vishalkulkarni9227 Год назад

One of the great video regarding forecasting. 👏 Thank you so much need more video like this. Thank you so much.

@jieyeye7302 6 лет назад

Many thanks! Really good explained!

@didimples 2 года назад

amazing breakdown of the forecast methods!

@linaf6299 6 лет назад

Thank you Mustafa.. very clear & helpful!!

@patrickfranciotti6212 3 года назад

Thank you @mustafa. Saved my life with this video. Definitely subscribing.

@AdamTauro 6 лет назад

Thank you Mustafa! Very helpful!

@mahadev2023 Год назад

Thank you Dr. Mustafa. You described very well.

@shashankvaradhi9290 2 года назад

Very very informative. Great explanation. Thank you so much!!

@madinat.3863 Год назад

you're the best! thanks for explaining

@valentinapatino8215 Год назад

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge! An amazing technique

@mcanbolat 6 лет назад

Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVjz1IZT8Hd489ZCifAIM5yTiuyk0qdcoCrdWIbBruk/edit?usp=sharing

@lalu225 6 лет назад

Thank you very much, your video is very useful. Also, I tested the excel sheet that simulates the difference between the two trending approaches and it seems like the the differences in error is indeed random. Do you know if there are any papers or studies suggesting otherwise? Where did people get this impression from, that one needs to de-seasonalise before finding the trend? I'd be interested if this is true over say 100k trials - I'll attempt to run a python script to test it and check the distribution of outcomes

@mcanbolat 6 лет назад

lalu225 I haven’t looked at the literature but if someone proves that there is no benefit it may get published. It would be interesting to try this on a large number of datasets and report empirical output.

@helloh5727 4 года назад

Thabks for the videos man, I am an operations and supply chain management major and your videos are amazing.

@ammaralolaqi7627 2 года назад

Thank you a lot Dr. Mustafa for this great video. I have 2 queries: - is there a name for this forecasting method ? - What about if you had a data set for one year only, 12 months ? (Means January do not repeat etc...). Anything will be applied differently then ?

@woodypham6474 4 года назад

I hope that you will keep doing forecast for different kind of business sales. That would be great

@DavidSme 5 лет назад

Hi Mustafa, very helpful video. Your voice is also pleasant to listen to. Thank you!

@mcanbolat 5 лет назад

Thank you!

@khaledalharbi4028 2 года назад

Thank you so much! I've learned a lot from this video.

@peiyuanshao6248 6 лет назад

Thank you! That's pretty helpful.

@knockoffnomad 4 года назад

Thank you! This was so helpful

@drmilk1100 2 года назад

best video for forecasting!!!

@anihusein6168 3 года назад

Dear Mustafa, you are great.

@dalex7777 5 лет назад

This is GOLD. Thank you so much +MustafaCanbolat!

@varunsurya6811 2 года назад

I loved this method. Superb.

@Simon-pt4ox 2 года назад

perfect video! thank you very much for this!

@chrisdireduryan 2 года назад

This video is so educating it made me post a comment. Couldn't be better. Thanks a million

@mcanbolat 2 года назад

Thank you!

@lennywilson2702 2 года назад

Thank you.Excellent video.

@aloy5678 3 года назад

Excellent Video , Thank you so much Mustafa

@azizony123 3 года назад

Awesome Mustafa, very well explained........

@cowboybuddhaful 4 года назад

THANK YOU! This is great.

@aminualiyu555 11 месяцев назад

Thank you, so much for this insight.

@amithmihiranga1913 2 года назад

Thank you so much. You made my task so much easy with this nice video

@angiesmith3386 2 года назад

Amazing! Thank you! I agree with FSK... you made this so easy!

@yordanmihaylov5986 5 лет назад

Perfect video , very helpful

@SuperAchraf91 4 года назад

Well explained thank you so much Mustafa

@diegocanales6783 11 месяцев назад

Thanks, so muchh the video was really clear and the document help a lot to put It in practise. thanks a lot again.

@TristanBailey 10 месяцев назад

Great forecast work and nice and straight forward. Many other examples are more limited and don’t go this far.

@elenamohanty517 2 года назад

Hi Mustafa, this was great! thanks a lot for your video!

@sebastianmakaruk7339 Год назад

Great video. Thanks so much! :)

@huyhelloworld 4 года назад

Very useful. Thanks a lot!

@ashupashu5559 5 лет назад

Nice video Mr. Canbolat.

@hassanalianees5530 3 года назад

This was so helpful. Thanks

@helpmetoreach10ksubsbefore97 3 года назад

It's very useful. Thank you

@vishalkulkarni9227 Год назад

Great Video, This Video should be at Top...Amazing learned alot and would like to use this in real life. Thank you so much 😊

@alexpressley4469 4 года назад

sindex! Heck yeah. Great video.

@AtomTiger3460 4 года назад

What a godly video *praise*

@jugalpaleja6431 5 лет назад

Super helpful video, I am requesting you make more video other forecast methods or help with link if it's already available somewhere. Thanks a Ton Mustafa

@MohaAlraed 4 года назад

thanks brother i will start my new job as an executive manager for a small factory and this is going to help a lot

@MohaAlraed 4 года назад

few question what if there are "controllable" factors that will effect the demand, for example, huge random advertising, or getting new businesses to order the products in large number I mean it will not be just seasonal, is there a way to determine the future demand? I have one in mind but not sure if it's scientific.

@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030 3 года назад

@@MohaAlraed my take is that since those events weren't seasonal you shouldn't take it into account when doing your forecast.