As a donk, in hand 1, I would say villain's "natural" bluffs are only 9 combos of suited broadway gutters (I think he folds the offsuit ones to BB 3-bet,) as you said 56 got there by the end, so he could also have some diamond connectors, call that 5 combos, and maybe give him another 5 combos of small pairs or unimproved pocket pairs he would turn into big double barrels, his value range as a raise-caller who called a flop bet is 6 combos of AQ, 1 combo of A4s, 3 combos of 44, 3 combos of 77, 3 combos of 33 and 4 combos of 56s. (if he was bluffing and got there.) So excluding weird merges and unnatural bluffs, that's 19 bluff combos and 20 combos of value, so if villain is tripling every natural bluff combo it is an easy call. He is supposed to randomize and give up with some of that crap but if he's good enough to do that, the only way you make money by folding is if you assume he is a nit-reg who has contempt for you and he thinks you're holding exactly a weak ace because you would have turn c-bet the strong aces and folded out your second pair and worse to his turn bet, AND because you're a donk, you'll never fold an ace on the river because I have an ace I'm not folding top pair I'll find a reason to call and say it's GTO, and if this were his thought process he would fire the river only with value and give up all his bluffs, I do play against regs like this in 10NL but this is not 10NL and you are not a donk and probably can't assume that he assumes you're a donk, so seems like a call to me unblocking those diamonds.
on the 2nd hand, I am ok w/ the preflop 3B, but when the flop comes and we have no hand & no draw and it checks through, and the turn comes, and we, predictably have nothing, I think I file it in my "we don't get to win every pot" category and maybe just give up and save ~80bb here.
The one thing about the 67dd hand, it’s never punt once we get to river, because in terms of unblockers and bottom of range it’s the stone cold nut hand to use
good point, but at the same we are not blocking anything good / villains calling range. feels like we are overbluffing, if we jam every time with this hand. i mean we are not repping much for value, right?
i just watched yesterday the podcast you guys did together and I thought this was a recommended video from a long time ago too.. Now I look at it and was posted today ahahah
In spots like this, and this spot specifically CO or BUT vs SB 3 bet. The fact that the flop is QJ2 with the Q and J being different suits, it definitely has a bearing in this exact spot, because CO will open all QJ combos but only call the 4 suited combos to the 3 bet, so the Q and J being different suits mean 2 combos are blocked as opposed to one, this has to factor in in these spots but it’s not really mentioned, I mean in general btw
2:05 He basically just Beasts every Element of Poker, has his Orange carrot fingers in every poker crevice known to man, he has a carrot inserted in every oral ice pertaining to poker. The man is a Beast GG
On hand 2, I sometimes ask myself "is there any part of my range for which the flop is so atrocious that I simply want to check-fold on almost every runout?" and this seems to be such a flop. When villain checks back the flop it seems likely he has something like a jack, but the point is, it doesn't really matter what line villain takes, or what villain has, I would just get out of the way unless we have the specific read that villain way overfolds to flop c-bets in 3-bet pots in position. Because if we're not giving up with this hand, that means we're fighting with our entire range on every flop and I feel that leaves us with too much air.
Hate the way these guys ramble on about a few hands for an hour. What happened to the golden era of PONP where they would ramble on for at least two glorious hours?
55:02 - maybe I don't quite get what he meant or I understand things incorrectly, but to my understanding, there won't be bluffs that are negative EV in our range, because if they're negative, checking instead of bluffing is better. The weakest bluff will be 0EV and indifferent between check/bet. No?
In the first hand, as a simplified analysis of just the river, unblocking all broadways has to be good, but also, he shouldn’t have 44 here at least not full frequency, although villain is IP and deeper,so it’s more whether they open it rather than call the 3 bet, some people will call small pairs IP against BB 3 bets as BB is going to have strong hands that can pay when hit set. But if we say villain doesn’t open 44 then as played only has AQ and QQ on river and we blocking AQ, so once we get to river, call is never a Punt
