Peter Zeihan on the Collapse of Globalization and Shifts in Global Power Dynamics | Technovation 887 

We apologize for any confusion. It is important to note that this interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.

This had to be recorded before "the debate"....

Whether or not PZ is right on all of his points, his real genius, imo, is in getting us to think about these issues.

Peter is great, wonderful. But, I have not heard him say anything new, in a lonnnnnng time! 🇮🇪🎊🎉🤣

This was obviously recorded a while back. Love Peters commentary, even when he gets it wrong , which is usually surrounding US politics. He is a self admittedly a leftist. Therefore he his political bias shines through. Leftist cannot help themselves when they are dealing with TDS. However I totally enjoy his commentary regardless. I have learned to filter his bias and glean insight post bias filtering. Good job Peter.

The most intelligent questions I have heard in a long time. Good show.

I wanted to commend you on an excellent video. Your questions are brilliant, and I really liked the timestamps. The summary of the video was superb. A bit longer than most, but since it was so well written, it's a good thing. Subscribed

Peter is still in denial after that disastrous debate lol

Peter predicted bit coin would be on it way to less than zero.... $57000 +

Peter thank you very much for your very clear and understandable assessment! I am continually sharing your information!

Thank you for your insights - What a show!

This was fun!

"Adults aren't stupid." What reality does this guy live in??? Clearly not the same one I live in...or that George Carlin lived in.

By now, those antique fireworks are not likely to even make it out of their silos.

Peter is great for geography, demographics and industrial inputs. Trump breaks his mind.

The more I hear Zeihan the more it seems hes just saying the things the people who pay for his advice want to hear.

See peter zeihan interview, watch peter zeihan interview. Never skip!

The correct name for the inflation act should have been "the inflation PRODUCTION act". Atleast in the short-term. Long-term some of it may produce retooling that could help our economy. But our long-term debt may bring us down before then.

So we need a theoretical guide via economics that can propose a system with labor, capital ect.. in decline. Anyone know anybody who is doing stuff like that ?

Thanks for pronouncing his name correctly.

Peter!

Peter also predicted BMW wouldn't be able to produce cars this year because of the Ukraine war.

Trump will shock them all . . .

How many Chinese landing craft could avoid "smart" weapons? How many Chinese paratroopers could avoid "smart" weapons? How long could a Chinese military venture last, once the Mideast oil is cut off through the strait of Malacca? The US probably won't risk their carriers, but the US could deploy a dozen or more subs to close the Taiwan strait.

was this recorded before the debate?

What I do not agree in all of Peter thinking about Russia is their "frontier problem". If nobody will think invading Russia, because will get lost on the vast teritory, even only the european part, a teritory that doesn't have enough infrastructure, roads and railways, in the same way Napoleon get lost and Hitler's armies cannot hold the oil fields near Stalingrad, why the russians will need advanced frontier to the heart of Europe? Is about control of teritories, resources and populations. Is about acces to Bosphorus and better shores on Baltics. Is about the control they had in soviet times. So, about all these countries found protection in NATO, but Putin has his own interpretation about having NATO at the gates.

Outstanding! Do yourself a favor and listen to this video!

As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany”etc at all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they are willing to give up to support having children, the more healthy a population becomes the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is an in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is very focused on China but fails to recognise that the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobia/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense what the analysis describes is China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but foreign ethnic labour and consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest we are all doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell l… it’s a fascinating era.

Peter says Chinas population declines and China cannot feed itself. But if the population declines, there will be more food per person, not? I really don't understand why population decline is a problem. There are more upsides than downsides, I think.

No doubt Peter is highly intelligent but where is he getting his statistics? It would be fresh if he could just put forth his opinions without his left of center ,democratic political leanings seeping through. It is truly obvious in his dialogue. His presentations are becoming less interesting and questionably on point.

Do we go back to a pre-industrial economic model? A nation of small to medium sized family oriented businesses? Churning dollars over back and forth in smaller amounts but on a massive scale? Deconcentration of wealth back to the citizenry? A nation of savers instead of consumers? Nah, nevermind. Couldn’t work.

When was this interview recorded?

Excellent conversation

Soon the world will move on!

If China is going down soon, how can you explain that platforms like TEMU or brands like SHEIN have risen to the top within the last few years? Can anyone explain?

Makes you look at things......Peter needs to get a lil MAGA IN HIM................AMERICA IS THE ONLY THING......NO ONE IS OUR CANNON FODDER......WE HAD NO SECURITY FEAR PETER.....

Well, the CCP's Third Plenum is coming up in the next week. We might get an idea on what Xi is thinking with the official releases from the state media and the various interpretations from the China watchers.

He's calling for a Biden Landslide. So . . . he's an idiot?

Role/future of Africa and Mexico in your predictions?

I wonder how Peter thinks of the policies of the WEF and how this influences the west politics and economics The centralising of power in the central banks

China has huge waters wealth, and land fertility. They also have huge educational investment because education is sacred. They are way bigger than the US in Purchasing Power Parity. They are also wise beyond Western perspectives. So... stop cheering for their demise. I returen this week from 40 days there. China works well, their trains run at 120 to 150 MPH and on time. Their air is on time too. The streets are faster than ours to get you from point a to point b, including Shianghai.

acording to the record, this was recorded on June 20th, 2024 ... (before the 'debate', not that it matters ! ) Zeihan should STAY AWAY FROM THE DOMESTIC POLITICS ! He sucks to High Heaven !

Mr. Doom and Gloom

Peter's great and I have tons of respect for him but the thing I never see acknowledged is that if his theory about Russia being dead-set on plugging/occupying land gaps to their motherland is incorrect then the entire raison d'etre for the supporting Ukraine to ever increasing degrees is completely invalidated and we're rushing hyper-aggressively into a conflict that has a very high likelihood of triggering the 90-minute nuclear war that permanently ends civilization and virtually all human life on earth. To me, that's an insane amount of confidence to put behind a course of action for which we only have our interpretation of historical analogs as evidence. When I consider this in context of how our government has been made a disaster of every conflict since Vietnam (perhaps with the exception of GW I), I'm not left with a great deal of confidence that they're operating with a great deal of competency or clarity in executing this conflict either. If it turns out that Ukraine is on par with Afghanistan (in terms of modeling and execution of the conflict) then we (i.e. the entire human race) is very likely in grave danger.

Can we get an "um" "ah" counter from the host 🙄

Question to you; Who would be the puppet master and who would be the puppet? I think there is no place in a 21st century world for imperialist dominant type thinking. If we can’t share what this life has to offer we will not make it as a species.

And WE (the Goverment of The United States) have lost the faith and trust of the majority of the other Nations of the world. You don't tell people "Hay, let US keep your gold in OUR bank. We will keep it safe, and give it back whenever you want." but read the fine print. "Unless we don't want to, or if you do something we don't like..."

Peter is brilliant on China, but completely unaware of what has been happening here in the US Regarding immigration, the US has long standing legal immigration for the very best and brightest(top 1%). Ideally, we could accept the top 3%.

The only country US is immigration is Canada? That seems to leave out a lot.

Could China not try to evolve into a service economy with 500 million citizens fairly well off and well educated semi South Korea like and outsource the grunt work to VietNam region.

Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.

Very interesting but I echo the comment about when this interview was filmed? Surely there are questions about Biden now after recent poor interview. Maybe that doesn’t affect the election because he is better than the alternative. Interesting about Globalisation was ‘just to get the world on (the USA) our side’. So interesting about population decline, when I was at college we still thought overpopulation was a problem. Now it’s the lack of a young workforce that’s the problem, which many countries fix with immigration. But as Peter says integration can be a problem and I would say that unscrupulous politicians can use the backlash to get elected.

Peter Zeihen is a genius in terms of historic data and future strategy. I just have one problem when it comes to his analysis. In all his predictions USA comes on top like in Hollywood movies. if only he comes out of this imaginative world with obsession for his country USA , he will see that world will be a more multilateral / multipolar / dynamic power shift prone system , where NO one country (USA) or one power concentration ( EU or NATO or five eyes) can say they are morally superior and use their dangerous power concentration to arm-twist a less powerful nation… we will see more and more countries collapsing economically in developing world while Islamists and leftists will ruin USA / UK/germany / France. All four of these countries don’t make enough babies and have to import humans like beef or chicken to run USA economy. The immigrants who come may not hate Russia like existing white Americans and new immigrants may also be not ready to fight USA a war or may not believe in USA maintaining its imaginary superpower status when most nations have woken up to USA s sanctions based diplomacy. USA can be a powerful force but it won’t be able to control the world any more…

Idk about China not being able to compete in high end production. BYD and Hauwei have made insane strides. China by far leads the world in battery technology. China now has luxury cars that outcompete european luxury brands in terms of mileage and reliability. Their ranges as far as EV's are concerned absolutely destroy the competition. , Hauwei just unveiled a phone that can charge from 0-100% in 8 minutes. They have the best cameras a phone can have. They have replicated and are catching up on generative AI, and as far as general AI applications they're the best. Toyota just partnered with Hauwei to use components for autonomous driving. I just don't see it. I'd love to be proven wrong.

He said, prior to the Trump/Biden debate, that Trump will lose as long as Biden doesn't die. He also said he could change his mind if Biden died. Does he now believe that Biden is politically dead?

If you can have a global humiliation, every second of this conflict has been a global humiliation for Putin , i mean really, there must be a very high bar for humiliation in Russia.🙃

What if China immigrated 500 million young people from the third world to work the economy?

I think what you're saying about inflation is wage inflation. Reducing wage inflation to deflate wages is a problem. This continues to be the source of inequality in this country. Don't tax to pay for things. Just deflate wages. Taxation requires cuts and guts. Both parties lack backbone. So I'll vote for the bat shit crazy until it's been addressed.

The debate + prosecution of Trump only solidified the republican base.

Well stop causing chaos around the world. Maybe nobody will want to harm you. Stop harming others

What does the genius PZ say about the election now??? He needs some serious TDS deprogramming. If he turns out to be right I’ll come back and give him props for his prediction. .

I live in Russia, and i like Peter, but i hate him for using "security" and "defend" when talking about Russia. Russia never felt insecurity. Moscow wants to expand the empire that's all

Talk about global destruction. Is it too late to cease Ai? Will everyone be… laid off by Ai? Suffering Ai jobloss for years? Swell robotics doing everything? Then everyone made slaves for an Ai new world order?

Soon as it gets to @39:20 just quit.

Zeihan is lower version of Gordon Chang with worse and less education.

With A.I. and well over 2 million engineers in China, I'm sorry but calling for the demise of China is so premature.

I've been following Mr. Zeihan for 6 years. He will entice you with his confidence and bold statements, and with good skills in presentation. However, nearly all of his predictions are incorrect and what's worse, he's clearly a shill for the 3 letter agencies. It really is that simple. I can list all of the incorrect predictions, but if you doubt it, just keep following him (at your peril).

PZ is so far off on SE Asia I can't believe it. I live here, have for over a decade. The corruption and the influence of the military and Oligarchs is entrenched. Also, the demographics, especially Thailand, are almost as bad as China. PZ is all over the map and I would question/test any of his observations by plumbing alternative opinions. He's provocative but blows a lot of smoke!

Peter has never been right about anything. One of the biggest grifters around.

Peter is lying and in this whole podcast he didn't mention anything about defence corridor of US, effects of petro - dollar which gave rise to infinite minting of dollars. Today it has stopped.

I think this is pompous crap. In the long run, globalization will grow. Human migration has been going on for over a hundred thousand years. Human trade around the world has been going on for over 40,000 years, ever since people were living as tribes, not nation-states. People innately understand the economic benefits of global trade and migration, and will continue to do so, with or without nation-states, as long as it is humanly possible and economically beneficial.

One sided view. Not providing true picture.

Peter speaks so quickly as if that lends credibility… at no point does he really identify any weakness in the current state of the US economy or its equivalent issues with demographics, labour and intellectual capital. (US will always be greatest, China, Russia bad, can only lose… US unbeatable)… Slow down on every sentence buddy, it will make a difference (it’s like Neil Degrass Tyson v Carl Sagan)… one is arrogant, one is a teacher… Peter is arrogant, settle petal… don’t speak down to people as if we are ignorant. As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany” etc., all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they need to spend to support having lots of children, the more healthy a population the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive, and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is increase in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is initially very focused on Peter’s perception of China’s economic and demographic weakness but fails to recognise the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s the fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobic/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense way Peter’s analysis describes China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism but a Xenophobic intent to ‘take’ but never an intent to ‘share’). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but not foreign ethnic labour and , irrelevant of their need… consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example xenophobia v demographic collapse. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest China is doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell… it’s a fascinating era. So let’s summarise the assumptions: 1: Xi dies, something happens, incompetent people take control. I think that’s unrealistic. 2. China currently produces low end consumer products based on a competitive advantage of low cost labour but is incapable of moving up the value scale. Japan has proved that is a successful strategy. Government subsidies are supporting industry… mmm like the US agriculture subsidies fundamentally underpin the very survival of that sector, without those subsidies US agriculture would simply be unable to to compete in the domestic market, let alone in the global market. These arguments lack any sort of substance, politically motivated, and unable to recognise the paradox and the parallels with Japan post WWII from… “Japanese stuff is cheap crap, to hey it’s cheap but not really crap, better than the stuff we make here…”… And the we get the concepts of inevitable failure of Russian and China’s conflict strategies, Peter’s analysis are wildly optimistic about competence and capability.., a whole other discussion Short story, slow the heck down.

Is one “solution” for China to adopt a “Lebensraum” policy to its fertile neighbors to the south?

Talk about complete misinformation!

Peter will never say anything bad about the military or nsa or cia.

There is no historical case of a technological society with electricity collapsing. We live in a world where economists pretend that planned obsolescence is not happening.

Peter is smart, well informed, but he doesn't do nuance because it's bad "tv". Peter is VERY good at what he does. He is a generalist. Which means he only reports on the broadest strokes. He might know the nuance and detailed perspectives... but you don't hear that from him. It's important that anyone listening to him understands this. The best example what him saying Ireland has no agriculture, or too little agriculture. In the broadest sense, an argument could be made for this. But the details reveal that the Irish agricultural "brand" is a huge money maker. Also regarding Russia, Biden has squandered at least one Ukrainian chance for victory by worrying too much about "escalation management". Had Biden let you Ukraine win by giving it what it needed in the window of opportunity, Russia would be out of 90% of non Crimea Ukraine and would be negotiating what to do with Crimea. Instead 100,000s of more deaths.

Peter nailed Trump and the failings of Republican Party which I’ve voted down the line since 1996. You can’t be a Republican, beat up on republicans holding different ideas, then expect those republicans to come out for you in November. I’m not for democrats, I voting against maga.

For someone who gets so much right, Peter is clueless concerning President Trump and the Jones Act.

This man, is so deluded.

The Europeans had no choice but to stand between us and the soviets they could not move. We did not have to convince them.

WHERE DOES THE CONVICTED FELLON CRAP COME FROM? You like zoo courts?

cia point of view

Zeihan is losing all credibility with this election analysis 🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️

I'd like to remind everyone Zeihan has repeatedly stated that he is a Democrat