Picking Longshots In Horse Racing

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How to pick longshots in Horse Racing. Handicapping against groupthink and finding longshots in horse races that increase your ticket value. How to bet on horse racing and find winners. Learn how to find longshots in horse racing and the best races to look for longshots in horse racing.
02:16 The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Horse Racing
05:25 Allais Paradox in Horse Racing
07:35 Avoid Loss Aversion in Horse Race Betting
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Опубликовано:

3 дек 2021

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Комментарии : 36

@derbyologist 2 года назад

What are some of your longshots Angles?

@theravagedgrapefruit8190 2 года назад

I’m new to handicapping , your videos are helping, it also helps I moved by the Oaklawn track so I’m really getting into Horse racing. But I’m still only sticking to doubles and pick 3s. I don’t have a large enough bankroll yet to risk it on pick 4s and 5s. Funny story, I started about year ago and had no idea what I was doing. I singled a pick in every race for a pick5. I won 3 of the first 3 races, lost the 4th then won the 5th. Never have been that close again!!! I’ll talk myself out of picks then they will win. A certain way I’ve been finding long shots is for instance if it’s a 1 mile race and the long shots last race he got 4th at 1 1/6, then 3rd at 1/16, then the trainer sprinted him for a few races before that when he got 7th and then boom 5 races back he won a mile race by 6 HL. I’ll always take a horse like that to win. And I look at the workouts if they are live. I forget the horses name but it won’t back in September at CD at 45-1 and he had a 46.3 sec/ 4 long. And I usually will just bet the long shot to win/show.

@alphaomegastables Год назад

My BEST angle...Jockey/Trainer combos on horses that did nothing, but the jockey is Hot, a particular day at a particular track!! Frat, Irad, Florent...bring home longshots..A LOT!!

@timme6933 2 года назад

always keep an eye out on certain trainers who have won previously with a high-odds horse, look for patterns

@elaineacosta262 4 месяца назад

with me it’s the overall appearance of the horse 🐎 at first sight my gut felling and what I feel and forsee possibly down the line,mannerisms come into play and I go from there.Elaine Acosta

@michaelfesta9289 3 месяца назад

I’m looking forward to the visits to the spa this summer

@timme6933 2 года назад

all about the mindset. longshot angles: surface switches, last 3 races on dirt bad, today on turf and shows better turf speed figures

@elaineacosta262 4 месяца назад

Good point to consider.Elaine Acosta

@forbudt4u2 12 дней назад

I rarely bet longshots in American racing. However, I do take at least one shot at a longshot in the South Africa circuits most days of the week. There are a few trainers that are masters at taking on a proven loser from another barn and hitting paydirt on the horses first race with them when they put one of the top jockey's on it. I've hit numerous 30-1+ longshots with a Kelly Mitchley Trainer / Khumalo, Fourie or Zackey Jockey combo. The only downside is that you really can't play anything outside of a pick 3 at these SA tracks, so you might hit a $1 or 2 thousand $.50 Pick 3 every once in a while when a bomb hits in the sequence. When converting SA to American dollars, some of the local Pick 4, 5, and 6's pay tens of thousands on a regular basis with this angle.

@edwardliiv9443 2 года назад

Great video! I can't wait for SANTA ANITA to open up the day after Christmas. I'm Abita old school. I tend to look for "horses for courses". Some horses won't run at Sanita, but "wake up" at Del Mar....happens every summer. Also I look for "bullet" works a week to ten days before a race at the same. Good luck to all and have a safe holiday season.

@tracks-ct8pv Год назад

I like your presentation and your delivery to the audience well done.

@derbyologist Год назад

Thanks for watching.

@alphaomegastables Год назад

Remember..they are considered Longshot bc the betting public, doesn't think they could/will Win. Rich Strike...is an example of that...Won @ 80-1 in this years K.Derby...

@wayneforet5187 Год назад

Last Sat. Was great for me. I like longshots that had a great time in the past performance, and then I look for the trainer, owner, JOCKEY COMBO. I love those great Cajun jockeys. I bet on Joe Talamo twice that day, and he came in first at 48 to 1, and then he came in second at 74 to 1 both on horses that had back class a year ago, and maybe a layoff. I had place, and show bets, and I won big, and I hit a superfector for a $1 box. Then at keenland I bet Corey Laniere at 45 to one, and he came in second, but the fav. Won so it paid $38 to place but I had a it for $20. On this one day I won 5 superfectors, and 3 big place bets. I don't want to say what I won, but I got escorted to my car, and had to fill out paperwork. So good luck, and I always bet on the graded stakes with at least 10 horses. A mid to long shot is always in the top 4. Good luck.

@derbyologist Год назад

Playing some price horses gives you a chance at a bigger score. Have a good week.

@johnkonley1421 2 года назад

Very Educated Thanks

@derbyologist 2 года назад

Thanks for watching

@michaelfesta9289 3 месяца назад

My best hit was the Arkansas derby when Rocca Mundo the biggest longshot on the board hit I had him with kissing Chris then I had pat days first Kentucky Derby win aboard lil e t

@derbyologist 3 месяца назад

I remember that race

@Jeremiah-bz3ox Год назад

F.G.has had opportunity to ride a few of the KD contenders and with few rides on #12 has mutually decided between jockey and trainer BHC to ride #12. Perhaps, the few rides on prep races has provided enough info to believe horse is improving and can be at least in the money; will need a few LS to fill up exotics and may use this one as one of my exotics.

@wayneforet5187 Год назад

My best play was Mind that Bird with Cajun Calvin Borel. He went off at 50 to 1, and I had it cold for $50. The only bet I made. Then I loved Hall of Famer Mike Smith on Giacomo, and last but not least Rich Strike at 80 to 1. I only bet $10 WPS, but I was rewarded. 😮

@derbyologist Год назад

Nice hit on that race - Kentucky Derby can pay some money.

@SeanPlaysGames- Год назад

When you're done making your picks take a look at the odds currently and then look at the ML odds because sometimes betters think of horses decent but not good enough to win and keep them off the ticket so the price ends up going way up and you get a lot of value

@derbyologist Год назад

Good tip, definitely something to consider.

@Johnny53kgb-nsa 2 года назад

Very interesting information. Could I still use the ABC method, even if I use Twinspires instead of DRF ?

@derbyologist 2 года назад

Yes would have to set up something in excel or similar type of spreadsheet

@tomahawk_nole1343 2 года назад

Where can I get raw data for horse racing?

@theravagedgrapefruit8190 2 года назад

Will you be doing a video about different classes? Is it a good thing or a bad thing when a horse drops a class and do you want to bet them?

@derbyologist 2 года назад

I like horses dropping in class from grade 1 to grade 2 or 3. Also maiden special weight to maiden claiming.

@theravagedgrapefruit8190 2 года назад

@@derbyologist How can you tell when they go up or down to another class?

@johnkonley1421 2 года назад

Great video how about An Example

@derbyologist 2 года назад

Thanks for watching

@salkinfamilychiropractic3142 Год назад

Book by Michael ....????

@mantaraymartin8035 Месяц назад

Why is the "longshot" at the track today? Why have the connections (owners, trainers) put that horse in that race? Is it "practice" for another day, or to win prizemoney and to land bets TODAY? Case A tells you not to bet: Case B to bet. In Case B the trainer is TRYING TO WIN....might fail but IS for real. What tells you the longshot trainer and owners are REALLY TRYING...despite the odds suggesting otherwise? One sign; the horse has come a long way for what looks like too hard a race. That costs time and money. WHY?