When idiots following the ETF, then a centralized bitcoin born! and now manipolating the market and idiots not believing yet!!! They are now control on when pump/dump
The market at the start of 2024 had 7 rate cuts for 2024. Laughable to suggest the Fed is the one that has been getting this wrong. It has proven out that they were right to start hiking in early 2022, aggressively ramp up that funds rate, and then keep it at the terminal rate until now. Also, the Fed on numerous occasions has stated that a recession will likely occur as a result of this hiking cycle. The market consensus has been no or soft landing, which is another thing they will be massively wrong on...........I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 14k to a decent 539k....I'm especially grateful to whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape
It really helped trading with michelle sule analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
GREAT NWES!!started working with sule back in April , and my financial goals have been clearer. It's like having a strategic partner for my money with a solid track record.
Given the high correlation of BTC price with growth in M2, I suspect the very long period of Central Banks coordinating on high rates and other restrictive measures has resulted in a delayed bull market. M2 is starting to grow, so the future looks bright.
This video is about s2f model. 62k is not the price this model predicts. It just not. Of cause you can find some sorts of excuses, but... It just totally failed.
I think these ETFs have convoluted the understanding of the importance of Bitcoin. I think people are confused. They are clinging to the old system. But they don’t take the time to understand why they shouldn’t. It’s frustrating as hell. Just be patient, people. Markets are nothing more than human psychology, on a large scale.
BTC is an enigma to the majority of the planet. Misunderstood and mistrusted by many . If BTC is going to truly multiply tenfold then we may have to wait for an upcoming generation who have been born into it . Let’s see what transpires !
The thing is multi million dollar companies can´t simply buy bitcoin of exchanges due to legal issues, thats why ETFs open the doors to so many big new players in the game. Like plan B said, bitcoin will pump when bitcoin is ready for it. Patience for it is an inevitable self fullfilling prophecy
So are we still early? Yes we are. Once people start realizing that acquiring Bitcoin instead of the ETFs by understanding it's white paper and how it works, then we will exponentially see the adopting curve go higher and faster. Price? You get the idea lol
Retail is skint, they don't have the disposable income, or access to cheap debt that they had in every other cycle. Bitcoin depends on retail buyers jumping in after the halving and FOMO in as the price go up. Their completely absent this cycle
The man in the street will jump very soon.with interest rates coming down and liquidity flowing, cheap credit and more jobs are right around the corner.
You just stated my thesis. And no one online is talking about it. We have NEVER had a bull run trying to start in a low liquidity, ‘high’ interest rate environment. 2-3% rates 2013-2022 is WAY different than 6% today.
OTC has 410K BTC. This is a big amount considering where we are and what this looked like as little as 6 months ago - the ETF buying it all narrative isn't fully accurate.
I've been following you since 2020 and I still believe in you. I always follow smarter than me mentors . You are just that. Keep learning and innovating. Looking forward to our next pump .,
Building a base takes time. The longer the base takes to build, the higher the consequent rise in price, This we can see in the history of BTC price movement, which you have well described in this video. Thankyou for sharing your model with us.
Absolutely agreed, just when everyone thinks that btc will never pump it will hopefully shock some people.. wouldn’t hurt to see another country or two take on some btc in their treasury
I pretty much agree that : 1. There is no cause for alarm over the prolonged sideways price action. It does seem normal to me, too. 2. Rumours regarding price manipulation are unfounded; we experienced an unprecedented new ath just before the most recent halving, remember, and the market is probably still seeking to regain equilibrium. The next ath will be in 2025, not this year, I wager. Having said that, I'd keep a close eye on btc balances on exchanges, as the etfs have been gobbling up (OTC?) supply like there's no tomorrow. What happens when BNY Mellon and other banks start offering BTC custody to their clients? NGL, My Spidey sense is tingling, folks....
My guess is that btc will pump a bit and hit $80k’s end of November or December.. time will tell friends.. easy to think the 4 yr cycles is broken, but I think 2025 may show us otherwise..
Thanks for this. Didn’t the first October video have the average at $500K, with low at $250K and high at $1M for this cycle? What happened to that prediction?
It's not weird at all. A relatively speculative asset like bitcoin bleeds to assets far lower on the risk spectrum like index funds during times of high interest rates. Stock to flow models never account for demand so it's impossible to predict stagnations/bear markets during high-interest rates phases of the economy. Once the fed cuts another 100-200 basis points AND the fed resumes QE, we can assume that the market will naturally trend higher and outperform lower-risk assets.
If it can’t not always go up (consolidation etc) and it’s not going to go down. It’s just doing what it should, going sideways. Btc is on a bull flag pattern and we had a good September, the best September and that predecedes three very good next months.
usually you get all time high around 6 months after halving. so i think by the end of october we might have 74k and by end of november 80k btc price. but this halving should be much shorter, it might end in march. good luck to everyone
We are not in a bull market: Bitcoin dominance is still trending upward. You need to look at a logarithmic regression band and not dots with a paint brush 💀
Thank you Plan B. We've all lived the cycles before, but, its still nice to get that little bit of reassurance because sometimes a little bit of panic does comes out
Judging by the length of prior red dot bull runs and the long length of current red dot sideways bull run, we are almost out of months left for a real upward bull run. This is turning dangerous and a lot of retail investors could bail in next 4 months.
The trigger for the next uptrend is the same catalized externalization as GameStop AMC era, once derivative options based on ETFs are ready. That’s why investing 1 $ on options where bullish as 10$ in GameStop AMC. And this low volatility and stability will make the other type of investors use this products.
Would be bad for everything, including Bitcoin. That lady is worse than a plague, she is a dumb person with initiative. Never dismiss the destructive power of that kind of people.
Because Harris lies will gladly take your rights and bitcoin away. When trump was elected he fulfilled his promises and did everything he could to make it happen. I’ll take trump word over lying Harris
Yeah. Like the last cycle. Just he forgot to take under consideration one fact and all his predictions were dogshit and people lost milions. This guy is a idiot.
Bitcoin and crypto have had a lot of disruptive events and foundational changes over the last five years. It wouldn't surprise me to say that the cycle broke in 2021. I'm also surprised there hasn't been more influence from the Saudi's.
He is talking about the first plot. Yeah I wohld like to know this as well. What kind of information is used for the color. Sure he doesn‘t have to share his formulas, but at least tell us what is being used for it. :)
Very good videos as always. But this time could be diffrent. We have a overall market that could hit recession, but maybe after a pump? Then the bearmarket for bitcoin could be bad, like 20-30k bottom. Maybe the bull cycle is over or at least not gonna pump as much as people think. Maybe 90k
@@frankverhoeven3195 i am not sure in what reality you living. 8 months ago was february. Just check tradingview BTC price. What are you talking about 15k ? 😄 maybe you lost 15k in trade?. LOL
Just like the CME futures impact. ETFs will do the same. Institutions buying up everything the retail dumps, so they can own market share. Also BTC ran from 15k to 70k in a year. 5x. I would say that’s a good pump leading into ETF and Halving. Institutional buying = stability. BTC 125k Nov 2025
its over bro. people had enough time to get rich from this. now its done ans they will just move to the next big thing where they can milk stupid people's money
The market hasn't seen significant retail participation yet, and it's difficult to predict when retail investors will start entering. Right now, everyone is waiting for institutional players to inject more liquidity, but it's uncertain whether that will happen anytime soon.
You hear this every cycle again and again BTC is dead etc. The ETF only brings more buying pressure, while since the halving the BTC being mined is now only 0.8% per year. Fyi BTC ETF demand is now at 4% per year. Add non ETF inflows and BTC being lost + its supply scarcity (the amount of BTC actually being tradeable) and BTC is in a very good position longterm.
Thanks Plan B, for your explanation!! I follow your job since of 2020..21 you at least give us some numbers to analyze by ourselves .. maybe is not 100% correct... But give us a north.. Thanks from Brasil!!
Past results does not mean future results will be the same also you have to keep mind that in the past we have very low interest rate less than 1% which mean cheap money 💰 today that is not the same history also inflation and gas price is higher today but mostly the fed has to cut the interest rate more and no war also .War affect bitcoin as well
There's to many things happening, like wars in Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine, and now the strike in the ports, hope it doesn't affect the bull market
interesting to look at the long boring periods. Together with the bottoms in the chart, it's a repeating wave of inverse head and shoulders formations followed by a pump to new highs, which forms the next left shoulder ..
The problem is BTC/Crypto is correlating to equities and liquidity still, which is not good. Until such time that BTC and the like can decouple from traditional assets, I'll stay very skeptical.
