Poker Math You NEED to Know

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Join my weekly $2,000 FREEROLL on CoinPoker, sign-up here: pokercoaching....
Poker is a very mathematical game and it can seem overwhelming at first, but study this video and put the lessons into practice and you will quickly learn how to use these strategies effectively to increase your win rate.
I discuss several key points of poker math and game theory including pot odds, minimum defense frequency, pot sized raises and more!
Poker Math You NEED To Know:
Poker Math Subject #1 - Pot Sized Raise
Poker Math Subject #2 - Pot Odds
Poker Math Subject #3 - Balanced River Value To Bluff Proportion
Poker Math Subject #4 - Required Bluff Success Frequency
Poker Math Subject #5 - Minimum Defense Frequency
In order to take your poker game to the next level it is vitally important you learn all the nuances of the game.
Do you know what ranges of poker hands you should be playing from each position? When should you 3-bet, call or fold? When is the right time to make a hero call or a huge bluff? Do you know how to play preflop, flop, turn & river effectively and how should your poker strategy change depending on the street? What difference does it make if you are playing multi-way vs heads-up?
#pokermath #pokerstrategy #jonathanlittle

Опубликовано:

28 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 129

@Ggoodlad1 3 месяца назад

Minimum defense strategy is my recent focus - THANK you for addressing this! You are the best!

@mikezilberbrand1663 3 месяца назад

One correction. If your opponent bets 100 into 400, then you call 100 in the total of 600pot, getting 1/5 odds. Need to win 1/6th or 16.7%. Other than that, a very good lecture!

@CapoLady 2 месяца назад

Negative ghostwriter, betting $100 into $400= $500

@CapoLady 2 месяца назад

@user-cy1tl4hk7z I don't believe you add your hundred when figuring pot odds

@CapoLady 2 месяца назад

@user-cy1tl4hk7z I don't believe you add your hundred

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

You're correct that Jonathan made an error in that example, and you're correct on your answers. It's just that to calculate the ODDS ratio like Jonathan teaches, and how the poker pros calculate, one determines the amount of the pot *before* the (your) call . Hence, the calculation of the odds ratio is as follows: After the opponent bets 100 into the 400 pot, then the current pot is 500. You then have to call 100 to win the current pot of 500 (that "current" pot is the amount *before* your call). *Thus, the ODDS ratio equal 5:1.* Also, note how, in math terminology, the odds ratio is written (use the colon). You're correct about the percentage. You can compute the percentage the way Jonathan teaches, or one can compute it as follows: Odds ratio of 5:1 means there are 5+1=6 total *parts* (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the probability, or percentage, equals 1 part out of 6 total parts = 1/6 = 16.7%. This might be also how you were calculating the percentage based on the odds ratio. Well, maybe all of my comment is what you were saying, but mine is just long-winded.

@mikezilberbrand1663 2 месяца назад

@@harold7792 Thank you! I am a retired math instructor...

@TheNoobsterForever 3 месяца назад

7:44 is wrong i think, it should be “call 100 to win 500” since we need to add the opponent’s $100 bet too

@piggy4651 3 месяца назад

i agree

@icey2203 3 месяца назад

Yea I was confused on that as well. All hes doing is adding extra math.

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

You're correct. Hence the pot odds ratio = 5:1. And the percentage = 1/6 = 16.7%. The percentage can be computed how Jonathan teaches, which is: Percentage = 100 / (100 + 500) = 100/600 = 1/6 = 16.7%. When you compute the odds ratio first, which is how Jonathan teaches, then another way to compute the percentage is: The odds ratio is 5:1, which means there are 5+1=6 total parts (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the percentage, equals 1 part out of 6 total parts = 1/6 = 16.7%.

@SpaceFortunaa 17 дней назад

This is a must-watch for anyone serious about improving their poker game! 🚀 At Space Fortuna, we always emphasize that poker isn’t just about luck-it’s a game of skill, and mastering the math behind it is crucial for long-term success. Understanding pot odds, equity, and expected value can make all the difference when deciding whether to call, raise, or fold. This video does a fantastic job breaking down the essential math concepts every poker player needs to know. With these insights, players can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of winning. Great content-keep educating and elevating the poker community!

@PokerCoaching 15 дней назад

Thanks, I'm glad you found it helpful!

@johnr733 2 месяца назад

You talking too much and your voice is not appealing.

@johnristheanswer 3 месяца назад

I always struggle with a player saying they're getting say 4 to 1 odds to call or whatever , when half the money in the pot is what they have already put in themselves on previous streets. Isn't that evens ?

@Moosedrool8 3 месяца назад

Yeah but the money you put in the pot is a sunk cost since it’s already in there.

@mikaeus468 3 месяца назад

Basically, if you have 4 to 1 odds on the turn, and are getting those odds, it's a good call. However, if you misplayed the flop, you might still be losing in this situation over the long run. You just lose even more when you fold.

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

I understand your question, and the guys who replied above are correct. I only want to point out that Jonathan made an error in the opponent's 100 bet and 400 pot example. That 400 pot is the bet *before* the opponent's bet. Jonathan states that the odds ratio is 4:1; however, the correct odds ratio is 5:1. Below, I explain why: The odds ratio is computed by determining the ratio of the (your) call to the pot *including (or after)* the opponent's bet. Hence, the pot, including the opponent's 100 bet, is 500. And therefore, the odds ratio is 5:1.

@betweenthepylons5506 3 месяца назад

*me listening and taking notes to remember for later* My Wife from the other room: "what if a blind man is facing three blind mice in the big blind?"

@brianlee1417 3 месяца назад

Is 4-8 limit holdem beatable in the long run with a $5 rake?

@BirdmanPRRT 3 месяца назад

Of course not

@AnHonestPerspective Месяц назад

How strict is that "if raise is 30% of your stack all in"? If I've got pocket 4s and I'm low on chips, am I really all in?

@KEVKEV-yi2mp 3 месяца назад

the 4:1 example is wrong, you state that opponent betting 100 into 100 pot is 2:1 (200:100 odds), so if opponent bets 100 into 400 pot you have to call 100 into what is now a 500 pot (500:100 odds). 5:1

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

I agree with you.

@MajorCanada 2 месяца назад

Pot Odds could be explained less about opponent activities and more simply based on our total call to pot size ratio. The pot becomes $500 if our opponent bets $100 into a $400 pot. Therefore we are getting 5:1 on the call.

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

I agree, and Jonathan made an error in that example.

@gonzalotonini322 3 месяца назад

Thanks for your work

@leonlengauer197 3 месяца назад

Hey :) first I wanna say I love ur videos :) thx so much! Is the equilab still available for free? Because my download does not work. Whould be really nice if u could help me 😅😊

@krellis1000 3 месяца назад

Why multiply by 3 for a pot sized raise? Surely the pot is just the raise + other money in the pot. 4.5 bb facing a 3bb raise, and 9.5bb vs a 2bb raise and 6bb 3bet

@vicosam6055 2 месяца назад

The Best Video Ever!!!

@PokerCoaching 2 месяца назад

So glad you appreciate it!

@Ajfkoeic 3 месяца назад

W video Jonathan!

@Michael-sz7lp 3 месяца назад

Things I learned from this video: I'm not bluffing enough

@theedge8659 Месяц назад

or 1/(1+4)=.20

@CostaRicaJack 3 месяца назад

Thank you for this video. Clears things up a great deal.

@backpacker3421 3 месяца назад

Honestly, there are relatively few math problems to learn and they repeat over and over again as you play. IT PAYS to just memorize them. Nothing is a bigger tell than you sitting there staring at the table and counting silently to yourself or staring at the ceiling while you run the math. If you want to, memorize the math playing online, so you can take a second and work it out without it being an obvious tell. That way, when you are live, you'll just know what the math is and what bets you should fold to, what you should call, or how much to bet to set the price you want to exploit. It's a lot harder to read when you appear to be picking the bet amount out of thin air then when you are clearly carefully considering it.

@cjgooding4512 3 месяца назад

If only everything was converted into big blinds like I can do online with a quick setting change

@backpacker3421 3 месяца назад

@@cjgooding4512 with a little practice, that head math becomes automatic, especially since big blinds are usually super easy head math numbers like 2, 3, 5, 10 etc. Especially if you stick your favored play level, that head math becomes super easy.... but you don't even really need it. It doesn't change the math at all for this purpose. The results will always be the same wether in dollars or blinds.

@martindim7182 3 месяца назад

9:24 "you need to realize at least 20 percent equity", is this another way of saying " you need to have at least 20 percent equity"? The way he says it, it feels like "you must make the effort to realize at least 20 percent" as if I have any control over the cards I have

@sankalpverma618 3 месяца назад

You don't "realize" equity enough from out of position, and over realize it in position. That's the difference from the actual mathematical equity .

@jonathanjones1573 3 месяца назад

As a meth guy, I mean Math guy, I found this breakdown pretty cool. I had been questioning my defense strategy against C bets so this helps!

@michelMedore 3 месяца назад

OMG--people follow this--run Forrest run

@francescoiadicicco1266 3 месяца назад

Ok my brain melted on the required bluff success frequency. How do I figure that my opponent folds X% of the times?

@milessitcawich5947 3 месяца назад

Observing their play

@atfti 3 месяца назад

Yeah, it takes some attentive effort to predict your opponents' actions, which would switch the moment they realize they're giving away information somehow

@johnvaljohn4539 11 дней назад

Thanks god, I have about no Friends but i have maths !! 😏😉

@johnvaljohn4539 11 дней назад

AT some point i wanted to translate ICM in term of a chances to win/ stack ratio..... Surprisingly it told nothing to almost nobody!!! Thé résult IS a curve half log half exp Symetrical in thé center (for hu..) And it tells u that stealing bbs in tourney IS a lot if bs .. 😉😏

@davidboyd374 3 месяца назад

This guy can talk under water....about... NOTHING 😂😂

@allanpeters4297 3 месяца назад

I have been.playing poker for a few years now. Maybe am a bit think but I never have a clue what this guy is talking about. Am sure others keep up quiet well I also consider myself ok at math. I have 3 of his books too which are also a mystery to me.

@allanpeters4297 3 месяца назад

Definitely won't be buying more books or doing any of the courses

@harold7792 Месяц назад

@@allanpeters4297 I suggest reading the Dan Harrington series of books (3 books), in which he explains the fundamentals of poker tournament strategy in a clear and straightforward manner such that a layperson will understand them. They really helped me a lot. Dan Harrington final-tabled the Main Event two years in a row, in 2002 and 2003, when Chris Moneymaker won. The series of books were written, I believe, in the mid- and late 2000s. He talks some about math, but again he breaks it down so nicely. If you reply to this comment, I'll suggest another series of books by a different author that were written in the late 2000s and early 2010s. I've never read any of Jonathan's books, but were his first couple of books easy to understand. I would have to think so. His first few books, as so many books by authors before or around the time he started writing books, were written before the solver era.

@allanpeters4297 Месяц назад

@harold7792 thanks for the advice

@armando.visuals 2 месяца назад

07:39 the math is wrong there. Its 5:1... also in 09:16 the math is wrong... 4:1 is 25% 3:1 is 33%... What is happening!? lol

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

You're right about the example at 07:39 (the odds ratio is 5:1). ....However, you are not correct about his slide in 09:16. I explain why, below. Jonathan shows how to convert odds into a percentage by using the (your) call to the current pot. However, the easier way is the following, and this answers the figures in 09:16: Odds ratio of 4:1 means there are 4+1=5 total parts (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the probability, or percentage, equals 1 part out of 5 total parts = 1/5 = 20%. ...Then, follow these same steps to determine and match the percentages of a 3:1 odds ratio and the other odds ratios Jonathan shows on that screen. I hope that helps.

@armando.visuals 2 месяца назад

@@harold7792 i see thank you!!!

@DavidK-on3nr Месяц назад

Thanks for not calling it "maths"....

@jamestoop4767 3 месяца назад

nerd

@gkb1973 3 месяца назад

I need help with the concept of percentage of bluffs in my range vs my bet size. I think part of my issue is in game I tend to think about my exact hand vs the range I should have based on my position and preflop action. Can you give me an example of a range that arrives on the river making a 2x pot jam needing 43% bluffs?

@DB-dg3gt 3 месяца назад

It’s kind of funny: Many years ago before I saw any of your instructional videos, you really were a complete mystery to me. And as I watched you play with your sunglasses on, you really looked scary formidable. I am sure what added to that, was seeing that you were a very skilled player. I had this thought while just watching you, how different you are from your poker persona. You are actually a really nice guy and a loving husband and father. I don’t think you have talked about one’s poker persona? Do you think this important ??? Thank you for all your help. Clearly God has blessed you with a beautiful family. Oh, I was so happy for you when you won that tournament. Well played.

@stefanthiselton5490 3 месяца назад

u gave wrong detail in pot odds, bet 100 into 400 is 5:1 odds, u said call hundred to win 400 when it is 500. also i love your work, poker coaching has improved my tourney game and cash game remarkably. thank you for ur content J.Little

@harold7792 2 месяца назад

You're correct about his mistake.

@kaisaarnio7208 3 месяца назад

Played my first live bounty tournament today, made one bounty on 2bullets 😅

@areon912 3 месяца назад

Is there a reason why in one example it was 100 into a 400 pot so the equation was 100/(100+400) and in the other example it was 1500 into a 8000 pot but the equation was 1500/(1500+9500) ? One example added the bet we’re facing into the initial pot and one didn’t

@newstandardaccount 3 месяца назад

Yes, Jonathan made a mistake on the 400 pot. If your opponent bets 100 into a $400 pot, it is now a $500 pot, so the odds are 5:1, not 4:1

@fullsamadhi 3 месяца назад

Thank you both! This was bugging me.

@semirgj 3 месяца назад

This almost broke my poor public school brain.

@AT-qm8gv 3 месяца назад

@@newstandardaccountI think he made a mistake on both. The second one should be 1500/(1500+8000) which does = 6.33:1 but the percentage is 15.79%.

@simplexity92 3 месяца назад

⁠@@AT-qm8gvfor percentage it’s risk/(risk+reward), so 1500 to risk and get 9500 reward (8000 in pot + bet of 1500). So 1500/(1500+9500)=0.136 so 13.6%. But your pot odds still are 9500:1500 (simply reward:risk), that means 6.33:1. don’t mix that up with percentage. Bonus… Also you can do 1/(1+6,33)=0.136 so 13.6%

@yws4645 Месяц назад

I’m sorry, but it sounds like you were just reading verbatim out of a textbook rather than explaining this in a way that is easy to understand

@cjgooding4512 3 месяца назад

I like how online you can change it to BBs like who cares how much chips you have or whatever it's all about how many big blinds you have it's nice that you can do a quick setting online to convert it so you don't even have to see the actual chip or money amount. I haven't tried live poker yet except back in the day with some buddies so I don't know if this will be a big adjustment or not but when I play online I only view big blinds aka minimum bet how many minimum bets do you have in your stack.

@vicosam6055 2 месяца назад

Can you make the Poker Math Easier ??

@theedge8659 Месяц назад

oh i see why you the actual pot number to avoid a decimal like 4.3 to one gotcha

@davionharris8005 3 месяца назад

Much needed, thanks a lot JL. Will be reaching out soon.

@PokerCoaching 3 месяца назад

You're welcome!

@ellestar2306 Месяц назад

I learned The Rule of 4 & 2 from the great, Phil Gordon

@AndrewMatias 2 месяца назад

Hi Jonathan, question regarding pot odds I thought you explain. Once you get your pot odds, say 33%, how do we know if our hand will win 33% of the time? Are you assigning a range to your opponent as well as know how often your current hands wins?

@stevenwilson8718 2 месяца назад

I also have a hard time understand that

@kiranjain491 Месяц назад

@@AndrewMatias which is why you account for the range your opponent has and what your outs are to beat em. If you got open ender and flush draw on the turn to beat out your opponent, thats 33% equity right there but you have to piece multiple bits of info to assess. And you’ll never be 100% right, but if you can correctly assess situation then you can get a gage at your equity

@MrMrPopols 3 месяца назад

Bro, so I do need to count my chips to know how much i have, I need to count other 9 players chips to know their stacks, I need to count my pot odds their pot odds more over I some how need to count that mush of chips that diller pulled in to the middle and all that in 30 seconds after the action is on me ? Like there is no way of doing it LIFE ....

@MrMrPopols 3 месяца назад

oh yeah I forgot, how in the world you know how many of witch hands you had or raised or bluffed with ? If gto says you should re-raise and call 50%-50% of the times like 20 hands how will YOU REMEMBER all the hands you had and how you played them ? normally mtt gives me each good had only once if at all

@Witdabear Месяц назад

7:41 A little confused here. If my opponent bet 100 into a 400 pot. Wouldn't I add the pot and bet together and THEN consider what I'd call. So, 400 + 100 = 500. Call Amount: 100 (Pot Odds 5:1) = 16.5% *I'm genuinely asking*

@DavidTURNER-we4ek 2 месяца назад

Thanks. I also would like to know what is and how to use bluff catchers? Another value is the chart of equity of hands preflop and calculating equity on flop, turn, and river. How is that done without a poker solver at the table quickly at a live game?

@shinom0ri 2 месяца назад

I really wish you didn't screw up the math on the odds to percentages section. It really threw me for a loop and made learning this a lot harder than it needed to be.

@liyexiang666 3 месяца назад

can u maybe do one with muiti street consideration? cuz all this only apply on river

@fernandolucero8847 3 месяца назад

I need help in calculating equity of my hand pre-flop

@kiranjain491 Месяц назад

Huge information in this video. Especially river bluff proportions, people think about NUT equity but never bluff equity

@PokerCoaching Месяц назад

I'm so glad it's helped you!

@darcem9752 3 месяца назад

I don’t understand why a pot sized bet is 3x previous bet + remaining amount. Why the 3x? Shouldn’t it be 2x? If someone opened to 2bb, the pot is 3.5. Wouldn’t you make it 5.5 by calling the 2 and raise the 3.5? I feel like I must be missing some fundamental principle. Any clarification would be helpful 😊

@atfti 3 месяца назад

I bet 1. You raise by pot, which is what you *would* call PLUS the size of the pot at that moment. My 1 + your potential 1 makes 2, and the raise is strictly pot size, so your 1 + plus 2 more makes 3. 1*3=3

@qsdailydose8970 3 месяца назад

If you should make it bigger with antes in play why do a lot of tournament players min raise ? Stack size ?

@milessitcawich5947 3 месяца назад

Yes

@Antoinette14273 3 месяца назад

10:53 2nd Paragraph. "Balanced river value to bluff proportion" What happens when my 'opponent' is 'opponents'? Plural? One is crazy loose and the other is nitty?

@atfti 3 месяца назад

When you're multiway, you really wanna have the nuts. Two crazy Villains and you're prolly ahead. Two nitty Villain's and you're definitely behind. One of each means use your position

@Xaros103765 3 месяца назад

Give them worst odds to call

@mgrizz1123 3 месяца назад

I’m going to need to watch this video 100 Times. Thanks again, sir!

@PokerCoaching 3 месяца назад

So glad you found it helpful!

@JTMagXX 2 месяца назад

This entire philosophy of “over time” probability’s is a complete waste of time…you know who doesn’t think about these numbers? Phil Ivy, Daniel L. And their history is proven. One hand at a time, intuition over Overthinking and over analyzing, which is all this is

@dharryg 3 месяца назад

Great, concise information. However, none of it consoles having my Aces cracked in a cash game today by calling an all-in pre-flop by a pair of Kings and then less than an hour later, calling another pre-flop all- in by the same guy and having my Kings cracked by a set of nines. Poker is not all numbers and logic. LOL! Sometimes, it is illogically painful.

@chujwie4028 3 месяца назад

get used to it or stay mad your choice

@mattmatti6183 3 месяца назад

Stick to watching Cocomelon

@DHpoker27 3 месяца назад

U do know when u get all in pre flop. Over pair vs under pair. - AA. Has 83% equity KK 17% equity. So yeah u only win 4 of 5 times. So it is just math. N if u play long term over large sample. The more u realize it's just all math n %

@DHpoker27 3 месяца назад

N sure maybe for a recreational who buys a case of Bud Light on a Friday night n plays for fun. It might be painful But for someone who plays because they love the game. N does it professionally then it's all just math. N no difference in flopping quads n loosing to runner runner straight flush. Or. Getting a coffee at ur local coffee shop. ( it's all routine and happens. A certain % of the time. ) So yeah depends what perspective ur coming from

@nelsonmercadojr2749 3 месяца назад

70% luck 30% skill

@nicusordragne743 3 месяца назад

My friend, what you say there is nonsese! În online, all company's have bots! To keep the biggest pot on them! How do you explain to me in 10 years of playing I do not win 1 tournament? Stop to make this cuz is non sense with the game! With all you're strategy, when them decide to get you out, you're out!!!! Period

@martindim7182 3 месяца назад

What's interesting here is you haven't won a single tournament after 10 years of play and yet, you are still playing?? What exactly is the long term goal here? Someone famous once said "it's ludicrous to do the same thing over and over again and then expect different results"

@nicusordragne743 3 месяца назад

@@martindim7182 I done with online poker since the pas from RNG to the New sistem. I did modyfy my strategy în all ways posible and imposibile, belive me! În key moments aways is a bad beat no matter how you play în position or out of poziționare! And I play a lot, like 15, 20 tournaments a day! It is how it is! Bots!! Many bots like the pot to stay to them! I'm silly about them. When a computer decide my money, is not alright!

@biobio903 3 месяца назад

Perhaps you aren’t as good as think you are.

@adambrown8867 3 месяца назад

If you're lucky is a big part of poker. I'm playing solid, based, fundamentally sound poker yet I'm a loser getting felted 9 out of 10 sessions. This happens to me all the time. Either I'm losing to calling stations playing off suit spread out junk to make the best hand on the river to my big pairs, or flopped set or 2 pair, or they flop a set to my over pair, or I miss flopping a set to their over pair. Over & over & over. So I essentially just quit playing. Im not lucky. Further example of this is I never win anything playing slot machines. I've seen poker players I would say are better than me, knowing charts, lose everything & go to the slot machines & come back with $1500 to $2500 to play poker again in 15 minutes.

@sankalpverma618 3 месяца назад

I think the technical term for this "luck" is - variance. Over the long term it would even out.

@sweeep8609 3 месяца назад

If you are getting felted out 9/10 sessions over the long run, you are not unlucky, you are just worse palyer than your playgroup

@adambrown8867 3 месяца назад

@sweeep8609 Luck is a huge factor in poker, like 50%, that nobody likes to talk about for some reason. If it wasn't the best players would never lose. Simple.

@sweeep8609 3 месяца назад

@@adambrown8867 I never said that, of course there is luck. I said if you keep losing over and over most of the time then there is also a skill issue