Professor Chris Miller - “Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology” 

This video is just 7 months and its assessment of China's chip producing capabilities has been demonstrated as being completely off. Incredible. Fast moving field indeed.

Excellent interview/talk and this is the best audio that MIT can provide? Most podcasters in their basement do a better job at audio. The video is excellent to not be too negative.

Creativy comes from scarcity and deprivation. With a strong foundations on education in science and mathematics and a billion people, progress is inevitable.

Amazing, insightful and fascinating presentation and discussion. BRAVO!!! Thank you Professor Miller.

In the 7 months after this discussion, China has cancelled billions in orders for US chips and build their own 7 nm n+2 chip. Although Chris analysis is logical he may have totally underestimated China's ability to innovate and the time it would take for China to catch up. That necessity is the mother of invention is demonstrated by China's ability to produce their own 5G chip in the face of US high tech embargoes.. I think China will continue to surprise the US and the world how fast they will close the gap whether in developing the tools or software to design and manufacture chips. Soon they will roll out their own AI chip..and more

Great event despite the audio quality is not so good.

For a talk center on microchip, I wish the speaker had a deeper understanding about the technology. But university professors need to give talks and write books. And chip war is popular!

Never ever underestimate your adversary -- Sun Tze in The Art of War approximate 350 BC.

The book is fascinating. My thanks to the author for clarifying the history of chip evolving into huge geopolitical problems. Hats off to the great physicists all the intellectual inputs and highest level of engineering expenses.

China is currently about 9 years behind in chip tech. What the Americans are assuming is continued progress in chip innovation. If innovation slows down, it becomes easier for China to catch up. I bet it slows down by 2030 at the latest.

Kind of interesting that wafer size has moved way beyond polycrystalline wafers used in PV manufacturing.

Re: Moore's Law, while not all ions are the same size, as the desired feature size becomes smaller, the mask lines and later beamline implant accuracy must improve. This relationship between feature size and accuracy is likely true for digital circuits, mixed signal A/D, analog op amps, FPGA and specialty chips. In addition, each chip categories is as different as horses, birds or butterflies, to wit they are different products, markets, and prices. I am looking forward to reading your book. You are covering enormous changes in scale from countries to ions. Bravo

The world 🌎 is Control by Technology, this is very Educative information, thanks alot for sharing.

Please, please, please hire someone to provide better audio for this important content. The audio is the MOST important aspect in any talking head video.

The fallacy of this talk is to assume that China needs to catch up with the same chip technology. But one forgets that restrictive policy from the US will force China to catch up by improving the current technology or new technology (quantum computing, graphene, etc). Of course it is hard but protectionism will not work. In fact most US chip companies are doing terrible now as the demand from China has slowed.

seemingly only few that dont get influenced, using the term "WAR" in war times - u think thats more stopping or fueling it?

OK, so we seem to have a pretty clear view - and control of the manufacturing of - the Si, or GaAs, or some similar material chips to be etched to house more and more individual capacitors, resistors, and what not; all with the purpose of controlled shuffling of electrons. But, has Prof Miller ever entertained a possibility for a breakthrough in the physics of these contraptions? Photons - or something else, rather than electrons - might be recruited in these novel devices in an either tighter-controlled or a multivariable way? What then of those 25 giga-dollar behemoth foundries?

Always surprised when the audio is this bad in a premier university

The author has forgotten that the Chinese are very resilient people, they survive under all kinds of circumstances, given my experience as a Chinese diaspora. Look at most of the movers and the chip workers in the U.S., Netherlands, besides Taiwan, they are of Chinese descent. Time will tell.

Professor Miller says it’s almost impossible for China to catch up with the west in high end chip making. What about just forgetting moor’s law and developing new methods similar to graphene based chips or completely new technologies as it was new energy vehicles. China couldn’t compete with the west in legacy technologies such as ICE making however in battery teck China and the west were at the same stage when competition started. So, what happened at the end Chinese are leading now. Could someone please answer my question that what if china 🇨🇳 develops completely new technology in chip making which based on new materials and completely free from moor’s law and existing chip making technologies?

Im sorry, I was anticipating this presentation but I felt the voice quality can be better considering the time that this presentation was taken

This was excellent, thank you.

So many times Prof Chris Miller has said it is very hard. Engineers would not be so sure about it. We have seen it with lot of other really high tech in areas of aerospace.

Fish'n 'chips', the cheapest lunch in town, serve it in up a bowl or wrapped in newspaper; no problem for China.

Critical technology? Really? May be? We need to be more competitive in term of science and technology education, research investment in science. We have spent way too much on wars.

**Summary of Key Highlights:** 1. **Introduction and Context:** - **Speaker and Book Introduction:** Chris Miller, author of *Chip War*, explores the geopolitics, economics, and technology that underpin the semiconductor industry. The book focuses on the global competition for control over semiconductor technology. - **Background:** Miller began studying the role of computing power in military competition during the Cold War, particularly how the U.S. gained a technological edge over the Soviet Union. 2. **Semiconductors and Military Technology:** - **Historical Gap Between U.S. and Soviet Union:** The Soviet Union recognized the importance of computing in military advancements but couldn't match the U.S. due to production challenges, despite having smart physicists and substantial defense budgets. - **Current Geopolitical Landscape:** The struggle for technological dominance continues today, especially between the U.S. and China. Semiconductors remain crucial for military applications and economic security. 3. **Global Semiconductor Supply Chain:** - **Concentration and Vulnerabilities:** The global semiconductor supply chain is highly concentrated. Taiwan's TSMC produces 90% of the world's most advanced processor chips, while Dutch firm ASML dominates the extreme ultraviolet lithography machine market. This concentration poses significant risks in the event of geopolitical instability. - **U.S.-Led Internationalization:** The U.S. government has historically worked to bind key allies and partners (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) into the semiconductor supply chain for strategic and economic reasons. 4. **China’s Industrial Policy and U.S. Response:** - **China’s Ambitions:** In 2014, China launched major initiatives to reduce dependence on imported semiconductors. The government poured billions into domestic semiconductor production but continues to lag behind global leaders. - **U.S. Strategy:** The U.S. implemented the CHIPS Act to boost domestic production and R&D while restricting Chinese access to key technologies. Export controls target both software and machinery tools required for advanced chip manufacturing. 5. **Future Risks and Military Implications:** - **Supply Chain Risks:** Disruption in Taiwan could paralyze global electronics manufacturing, affecting smartphones, PCs, cars, and more. Military systems, increasingly reliant on computing power, could also be affected. - **China-U.S. Competition:** China is trying to catch up technologically, but exponential progress in semiconductors remains challenging. The U.S. aims to widen the technology gap to maintain its advantage, particularly in AI and military systems. 6. **Industry Structure and Innovation:** - **Oligopolies and Innovation:** The semiconductor industry has unique barriers to entry due to high R&D costs and rapid innovation cycles. Despite the oligopolistic structure, there is still significant innovation, particularly in chip design and specialized components. 7. **Final Takeaways:** - **Complexity and Importance:** Semiconductor manufacturing is the most complex manufacturing process in human history, requiring precision tools and specialized software. - **Global Influence:** Control over semiconductor technology directly influences global economic and military power. Competition between the U.S. and China will shape the future of computing and technological leadership. Overall, Miller emphasizes that semiconductors are not just another commodity but a strategic resource pivotal for the balance of global power.

Listening to this talk, and while reading the book, I'm even more interested in what is going on with the Arizona fab, and all the TSMC drama.

I have desktop computers from 2014 and they run current 2023 software on Windows 10 faster than my new 2023 laptop with Windows 11. I have an iPhone 8 from 2017 and yes it is a little slower than the iPhone 14, but the functionality is still the same. The conclusion is that hardware advances do not matter unless supported by software advances. The reality is that is high end chips are "luxury" goods that people pay a premium for but do not actually increase functionality. As with a lot of things, what we need is not the "best", but just "good enough" to solve our problem. China went their own way with their own space station. It is a risky bet that they cannot come up with their own supply chain that is enough to supply the needs.

Thank you MIT and Pr. Miller. Any chance you will add a new chapter in a next to come new edition of the book on disruptive new techs in computing science that might change the whole industry?

I would like to add an alternative POV as a question. Given that the USA and Soviets were by far the most advanced in defense instruments. Would meetings between Zi & Vlad have also included Russia's contribution to building out the Chip industry? China has the execution muscle and Russia have fantastic physicists and engineers...."Rocketry related ..."

Chris is great and his analysis is indispensable, but he misuses the term "semiconductor." What he usually means is "integrated circuit." There are many other electronic elements that are semiconductors, but the critical element--and the one he's talking about--is the integrated circuit. And, he's talking about CMOS digital integrated circuits; there are other also-critical types of integrated circuits (for analog circuits, e.g.). His lack of precision in this regard is puzzling and frankly troubling.

I think the audio system was made in the US not China. Shame MIT engineer did not check it before broadcasting.

Last year, there were 11.84 million new graduates walked out of the Chinese colleges. 60% or more of them has tech fields degrees. A bad news, China just announced that the first EUV light source prototype has been developed domastically. This is the most important/critical part of all parts used in the EUV machine.

👍

What a wonderful presentation. Chris is such a great fact driven Storyteller. 👏

Do you know know how chips started? It was started from 4000 phd Chinese engineers at Silicon Valley sin 1970s. US sanction export chips to China. Just recently I watch a podcast about Huawei is now making the new chips. China cancelled their $90 million chips order.

Ben Franklin Poem "for the want of the nail the shoe was lost..." It is true all the extraordinary number of Tool FAB components must not fail, is it also true that not all Tool FAB components are critical components? If China has access to operational Tool FAB, how long would it take to sort components. How can the US government expect to keep some critical components under wraps, if the USPO keeps publishing?

Thank you. Very interesting. Did japan compete with the Netherlands for the dominance of lithography at a certain point of time? If so, why did they lose?

Pushing Tech companies to relocate from China to Mexico or India is asinine. These technology companies are being asked to relocate to countries who at this very moment are organizing themselves into the the BRICS alliance led by China. Let's see how that works out.

nice speach... but he forgets what people are possible to do if they got under pressure or if there is "no way out"...they find a way. he completely underestimate the ability of chinese people ( and not the gouvernment) to solve problems. i live here and can see every day things finished in one year other countries need ten...and finally he is a history professor...a good one but not more

One Chip To Rule Them All.

So did you find out anything from my super computer? Solor Laser Keys

Great talk! Actually most of material scientists and phycisists in top US tool manufacturing companies are russians:)

I think chip development will hit a wall sometime soon meaning atoms are .1nm and quantum tunneling is becoming an issue more and more the smaller we get. Unless new physics are discovered, I even doubt a 1nm chip will be a viable option. Maybe if quantun computing becomes viable but we are almost at the end of the road!

The most advanced chips aren’t very useful; they are basically for phones only. The less advanced chips are useful, which China can produce.

Are cutting edge chips and computing power that crucial for advanced weapon systems? Russia's semiconductor industry is even less developed than China's, but drones aside, its weapon systems like hypersonic missiles and S-500 air defense systems are superior to the US's

Moore's law is a key reason why C. Miller says China won't catch up soon. Others are falling behing Taiwan. But making transistors smaller has a limit from the size of the atom. The smallest features are now 3nm or ~ 30 atoms. There isn't much room for getting smaller. A parallel technology is chiplet technology. While connecting chips on a circuit board will use wires 1mm in size, connecting chips in a chiplet will use wires with widths measured in microns. And in chiplet technology China is not that far behind. In the specialized area of NAND /flash memory China is on a par with Samsung and Micron. But another consequence of the US chip ban is that US chip companies have lost 40% of their revenue for the most advanced chips. On a 10yr time frame Miller's current conclusions I think are totally wrong. For decades, China's photovoltaic technology was behind the west. For decades their battery technology (for EVs) was behind Japan and Korea. ASPI's report in feb 2023 said that in 44 critical technologies for the 2rd century, the country publishing the most impactful scientific papers was China leading in 37 of the 44 topics.

In conclusion, U.S. is still want to be the world leader, and they will not settle to be second. U.S. political arena is also willing to be at all cost to stay on number one.

Huawei mate 60 pro- am I a joke to you ?

The audio quality of this video is appalingly bad. It sounds like it was recorded in a broom cupboard with the speakers talking through a pillow. I gave up after 5 minutes, it took too much effort to hear what was being said.

The only machine that can produce the small nano chips is by ASML Holland, he could have told us!

Great talk but the audio was recorded with a microphone inside a sock submerged in molasses.

US has just helped set the life's goal of every young Chinese - be self reliant on integrated circuits. However hard, it's made by human.

33% of computing power is produced in Taiwan

Ironic that this discussion on advanced technology has worse sound quality than the local hairdresser's new styles podcast.

How long before they catch up on paper 2058

Thank you for this important presentation. Please investigate bettering the voice recordings. Get professional help.

Young aspiring imperialist point view about semiconductor business. be careful what you say, it will result in war.

Huawei release mate 60 pro with 5G 7nm chip, made in China, US lose the chip war in just 3 years

An excellent talk and Chris quoted that "The weapon factories in thirty years time will be data centres" and this is so insightful with profound implications. Chris was struggling to find an innovation curve that beat Moore's Law. I argue in the following talk that there is an example of more rapid innovation in the following talk "Introduction to Moore's Law on Open Source steroids" ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-H0gg_biZoMs.html

It was cheaper for China to buy reliable Western chips, benefiting both sides. China spends more on chip imports than on oil. The "Made in China 2025" initiative provided substantial funds for chip development, but companies were hesitant due to technical challenges and the risk of competing with established players like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC. With US sanctions, China shifted focus, prompting the emergence of new chip research companies and increased government subsidies, making domestic chip development a top priority for Chinese research institutions. When self-sufficient, China can provide the world with cheaper chips, while the West and its allies lose access to both the Chinese and global markets. The US is developing its own supply chain, but without access to a large market, it cannot be competitive. The US is leaving no knees untouched in its Tonya Harding competition strategy. The Chinese are very grateful to the US for pushing them towards self-sufficiency. Thanks to the US, China now has its own GPS system and space program. More sanctions, please.

Not being a scientist it seems to me that the marginal benefit of being at the top of R&D is not directly proportional to the investments made from the military point of view. I can see the commercial gains for software and machine tools companies because this way they can maintain the oligopoly and/or monopoly. The benefits curb for military purposes will be far from exponential

I would love to hear about the Christian movement in China.

He is the cutest professor EVER!!

Why and where and how the chip would or should be the most critical technology???? This is very odd. Then the moderator said ".... professor of "HISTORY....."! The question ends by itself.

This is quite a comprehensive talk about the Chip War and Taiwan. But as a Taiwanese, I think I should point out some minor errors: Morris Chang was never for transferring the technology to China. As a matter of fact, around 2004 when Taiwanese government was about to approve UMC to set up semiconductor manufacturing in China, TSMC was opposed to it openly.

Damn the audio is horrible. MIT 2023 ... Come on!

Most difficult job mostly no one will like to do

there is a table with seating available and there are people who are sitting in chairs, working on their laps. Wouldn't smart people use the table?

如果中国一定无法研发同样先进的芯片技术，这个教授的结论才是正确的

bet ya cant eat just one

The author's assumption that China will never catch up under the pressure of relentless decoupling efforts by the US government is the weakest part of his book. The Chinese have proven their capability of catching up and exceeding in highly complicated technologies like high speed trains, infrastructure, 5G, Li-ion batteries and EVs. Also, he forgot that many Taiwanese regard themselves as Chinese, so a high percentage of the TSMC engineers will end up working for China after Taiwan is taken over by China.

Roomful of people seriously talk about a joke.

MIT: good with science - not with use of microphones.

America by declaring the Chip war, forced China to Create the whole supply chain locally. A huge challenge that the Chinese are willing to take. Last month they succeeded in making their own lithography machine capable of stitching 28nm chips. If the Chinese keep going with the speed of progress they'll reach the capability of The dutch company ASML in few years and gonna change the whole world of technology.

​ you already lost...just living in denial Go and find out who is Chinese scientist Huang Lung Yi and Loongson chips and can you rival Huawei's Mate 60 Pro

Brendon O Connell (on RU-vid) has been researching Israeli theft of American computer technology since 2009 when he learned about the Israeli Talpiot program and the US Israeli BIRD program, where US transfers to Israel our sensitive technology, owned by the US Taxpayers.u

Neelam Shahzadi

Prof Chris Miller look so much like Bill Gates. The intelligent smiley face. A person's face especially the mouth can say so much about their high IQ.

I am always leery of authors who claim to be experts but have limited knowledge from the very beginning. What does a history professor knows of microchips, except superficially.

A person who 1. have no first hand understanding of the tech and the operation of the chip industry, 2 have no indepth research of the data of the market and industry concerned, 3 no research and understanding of the China industry, culture, characters, capabilities, capacities, history and responses in similar challenge. Actually dare to write a book on chip war between US and China? O M G!!!!!!!!!!

To be charitable, Professor Miller is a newbie, so excuse his numerous errors, bad assumptions and - it follows - mistaken conclusions.

Best not to pick a tech fight with China. They had not a single tank or a plane in 1949, and in Korea war, also ostracised by UN. Despite the turmoils of communism, they caught up on a-bomb, now their own version of Int Space Station, and become No2. They’re a stronger partner to US, don’t make them the enemy

Trying to cut China off, rather than making US more competitive, will not likely work. Anyone will know that once having carefully studied the cases of GPS and space station programs. US once cut China off in one of the Taiwan strait tensions in the 1990s. The end result is that China now has its own Global Positioning System, called Bei Dou. Similarly, US did not allow China to participate in the international space station program, and China now has its own international space station, called Tian Gong, while the international space station is going to retire in a couple of years. Once China is no longer importing all these chips (whether by US embargo or China becoming self reliant), US and others following US may have to “eat” all those chips like Potato chips. China has never wanted to be an enemy of US, or anyone for this matter, but US keeps pushing China harder and harder to become an enemy.

Samsung is essentially at par with TSMC who can't manufacture advanced chips without EUV-LITHOGRAPHER.

My goodness Prof. Miller looks like 13 years old LOL

White see yellow no up!!

too young too simple.

😂 I thot he’s bill gate. He kinda looks like bull gates

This Chris Miller guy has no clue but I bet he made a lot of money writing a book full of misinformation, My guess is he is not EE professor as in Electrical Engineering but some English Exclusive major.

Jesus he looks like the young Bill Gates 😁

Bill Gates?

This dude is too politically unhinged. My guess would be this urge to control will probably lead to loosing it all than containing it.

😂😂😂 He did not know that the chip technology and industry is practically build by enginners and scientists, where 90% of them are ethnic Chinese. It takes the hardwork, discipline and brain of ethnic Chinese to make it work. Well, what will happen next needs no argument.

Is Taiwan ahead of even Us?

A younger Bill Gates？

He will eats his foot after 10 years. Market and the volume of the market dictate tech and innovation. China has both, and they will make it happen.

Moore's law is not a issue here. TSMC and Samsung succeeded due to availability of Western technologies, optimal utilization of capital and disciplined procedural operation skills. Japan lost semiconductor dominance due to unoptimal utilization of capital. US lost foundry capability due to poor capital investment and poor operation discipline. Biggest concern for semiconductor foundry is yield rate and US couldn't keep up with Japanese yield rate due to undesciplined female operators in clean room with simple things like completely covering their hair and male operators from not burping after having spicy food for lunch. Why did Intel fail to advance their foundry capability beyond 7nm wafers? I doubt government subsidy would help Intel, but Micron has been more successful against Asian competitor. Although US government did have to help Micron few times by claiming Asian competitor violated US dumping regulations by acceting their government subsidies or violated alleged Micron IP. The success of CHIPs Act will depend on how well US convince TSMC and Samsung to build and share their technologies here in US without their intellectual property will not be devulged with US foundries. Since CHIPs Act already has clauses to share processes and refund windfall profits, true cooperation with TSMC and Samsung will not be easy. Samsung has lost lawsuits with Apple only in US, but not in any other countries. Even when Samsung when a lawsuit when Apple copied Samsung technology, Obama pardoned Apple. Many Asian chip manufacturers have similar experiences. Having Asian advisors on US negotiating team would help but currently all US negotiators seems to be all caucasian.

Others cannot catch up with Taiwan, therefore similarly China is unlikely to catchup with Taiwan? 😂😂😂😂 You forgot that the very reason that Taiwan is way ahead is because of the capability and cultural characteristics of its engineers. Chinese and Taiwanese are of identical stock!

Who is realizing this guy looks like Bill Gates???