People who are mad at QYLD do not know how the fund works. It was never supposed to provide crash protection. I'm still getting my 1% returns every month!
Hey Tony/Lily. Even though I do like JEPi and JEPQ more than QYLD for our current market, I personally wouldn’t sell now to buy them. Only because that seems like the strategic thing to do in terms of timing the market. However. Going off precedent any time I try to time the market I personally have failed…. So I prefer to buy and hold long term. That’s my own personal investing style, and certainly others will do differently. I am buying more JEPi and JEPQ currently, so it’s a similar idea to yours. But I won’t sell my QYLD for more JEPQ. Hopefully this helps. As for tax harvesting. You certainly could, but my guess is you didn’t make a ton of profits this year from investing anyways, so I don’t know how beneficial this would be. But that’s a wild guess. Maybe you’ve been shorting the market and making a killing, I hope so!
"I'm sure it's going to come back" This is where I think you are wrong. It would take a massive long relatively short term rise in QQQ for it to get back to 22 or 23. It is not going to happen.
You might be right, we’ll have to see. But it is up 13% in the past 3 months. We need another 30% to get to 23, so potentially another 6-9 months of exactly what we’ve been doing. Which is basically moving up and down but not really one way or the other. With rate hikes uncertain, and a potential pause… you never know
@@MMuniz Since Nov 3, QYLD is up 8% from 15.69 to 16.95. The QQQ is up 17%, from 260.49 to 306.18. Yes, for QYLD to increase another 30%. it would take a short term increase of QQQ of more than 60% to 490 or so. By the end of the year. I don't think that is happening. If QQQ slowly increases back up to that amount over the course of the next 5 to 10 years, QYLD will not follow due to the nature of its options strategy.
For example, from March to Nov of 2020, QYLD increased 25% from 18.23 to 22.9. QQQ went from 170 to 300. That is the kind of increase that would be required. Another example: from June to August of 2022, QQQ increased by 22% from 270 to 333. QYLD only 7% from 17.3 to 18.5. QQQ was around the same value in Dec 2020 as it is now. QYLD has decreased from 22.6 to 16.95 in the same time frame.
@@mikekeenanphd lol my 3 months was a rough estimate from the low of 15 dollars per share about 3 months ago( sometime between 10/10 and 10/14)…. Not an exact date. And no, that’s now how it works. QYLD gains nav from more inflows of cash, and reinvesting options premiums into the holdings. When qqq goes up super fast it doesn’t actually help QYLD, because of the at the money covered call that has to be exercised in cash.
@@MMuniz Historical evidence would disagree with you. QYLD emphatically does not go up with inflows of cash. That's silly. Maybe I am misunderstanding you. Sorry about that if true. Anyway good luck with your investments! I'll check out some more of your videos.
Congratulations on your retirement. As long as markets remain volatile, options premiums will be plentiful. Hopefully our investments work out for the both of us and happy holidays!
I feel your pain. I bought alot of QYLD & RYLD in December of 2021. I almost sold it 4 times because cost average is $21 and I was nervous, then I thought I need to find another fund that would match what QYLD can give me! So I decided not to sell so I can do more research. I have been Dripping it back into the funds at 100%. My mistake was I put a large part of my portfolio in it before retirement. I believe that if you ever hold on to QYLD or RYLD etc.. you must drip at least 35% of the dividends to protect you from inflation and price depreciation.
For some years it seems this way but it just depends in how long you’ve been in the fund. Time in the market always beats timing the market. QYLD ytd is up 14% and that doesn’t include dividends
Im with you bro , i use qyld and Ryld as my bank account , no sense in losing it to inflation in some bank ....... the share price will be back at 20 before we know it
Nice video, I own all 4 and luckily got in recently, you usually don’t buy high yield funds for growth instead for monthly bill paying dividends. Buy tesla if you want long term growth
I agreed with everything until the last sentence lol! I do love Tesla but personally feel like it’s overvalued. But yes agree with the other points! Thanks for taking the time to view the content and compliment, happy holidays!
@@davidless57 current PE ratio isn’t the only thing I look at if I was to choose an individual stock. I look at forward earnings, competition, market share, etc. right now Tesla is hands down the best in the business when it comes to EV production, especially with their supply processes, but there is minimal competition. As the competition starts to take back market share from their first mover advantage, their earnings and demand will go down. Until Tesla can sell cars to the average American, I think this is a problem. A Tesla is still a luxury buy. But this is just my opinion, who knows, maybe Tesla will be 1k a share next year lol.
@@davidless57 always down for a friendly debate. Tesla’s direct definition of their company is building a world powered by solar energy, running on batteries and transported by electric vehicles. Wouldn’t electric vehicles classify it as an ev company? Also I think over 80% of their revenue comes from auto, but not 100% sure. What do you consider it if it’s not an ev company?
You have understand the psychology of people who buy short-term call options. They're betting that the NASDAQ is going to go up within a month. As long as there's enough of these guys around, the fund can create income. But as that sentiment changes (ie. if we have a prolonged down market) then the income is less and less.
Agreed, I think that people will always lean towards being bullish over bearish, but that’s just my opinion. Even in a continuously rising rate market, tons of people are trying to time the market bottom to make that massive return off a fed pivot or u turn.
It’s an interesting thesis you have here. I agree if it went to 5 dollars per share, but for that to happen, we’d have to see the nasdaq drop by over 75% as well, since QYLD would need to drop 70% and it never drops as much as the index it follows….. I think if that happened there would be chaos lol. Either way, Hopefully we aren’t in a bear market too much longer, definitely agree!
@@MMuniz - Thanks for responding. I know you put way more thought to this than I did. My $5 comment wasn't implying that would happen anytime soon. It's just the pattern of the QYLD never recovering back to it's previous high (like the market does) over the long term, eventually resulting in the super low share price.
@@Emp6ft10in yeah my response was a bit of an exaggeration as well lol. No problem that’s why we are here, to converse and here other people’s opinions. Honestly we don’t know what will happen, but I certainly hope that 5 bucks a share isn’t in the future lol
Well expressed insightful presentation. My feeling is most ETF's are niche plays not buy and forget and QYLD is decidedly a niche play.Might one lose money compared to something else? Yes, as with any investment. Question: In what convoluted way can 'popular' be anything other than positive?
Couldn’t agree more to be honest. Every etf has its own trade offs when compared with others, and certainly some will outperform / underperform. I guess unless you hold only VT which will capitalize on every positive and negative of the worlds market lol. But I’m sure people will consider the trade off of that not capitalizing on outperforming etfs during certain markets. Great question, I can certainly think of examples of popular things being negative but in terms of stocks or etfs I’m not sure I can think of anything, typically popularity would increase value, unless pump and dump schemes like in crypto. Thanks for commenting!
I personally think that JEPQ is a better option to buy today, but mostly because I think we are getting close to a fed pivot or at least a pause on rate hikes. One or two more, inflation keeps decreasing, and we should see some tremendous growth hopefully, which isn’t the best for QYLD. I like your Strat!
Good analysis. QYLD is one possibility among thousands. However I sold it at 23 in 20'21. Yes I guess you could call it market timing. Now le'st say I dumped into MMM. MMM lost 50 pts. It is all relative. Recently I was looking at an immediate pay annuity which matures ( locked) in 15 years paying app.7%.After that, the annuity value is zero! Which would have been the better investment/ retirement vehicle?
A lot of people consider QYLD an alternative to annuities, and I think I would prefer that as well, especially later in life. Mostly bc ideally your family would inherit the nest egg and still be paid even if you aren’t there. Also, selling at 23, wow nice out!!!!
Agreed. But that’s mostly bc QYLD has the spotlight most of the time. Also, since inception, XYLD has outperformed significantly in pretty sure. Especially in the bear market
Hey Alex, thanks and happy holidays! Our distributions will most likely be 1% of nav avain this month because of the QYLDs rule of “ the lesser of .5 of premiums or 1% of nav”. Premiums are extremely high right now due to market volatility. It is possible we get a capital gains distribution like last year, but I don’t think so with the full year of bear market. Not sure though to be honest.
I use QYLD as a high % Emergency savings account. It’s money that is not to be touched unless my family has a dire need. I have 500 shares, and yes I’m down YTD, but I just reinvest the dividends and let it sit. I have other money for my IRA’s, 401k’s and taxable account. QYLD will rebound, with will just up my monthly payment.
I put a set amount monthly in QYLD and reinvest the dividends into QYLD. I have been doing this for a while. Right now the price of QYLD would have to hit around $12.00 a share for me to lose all of my dividend gains and be even for the money I invested over time. Until then every month I reinvest and that $12.00 break-even number goes down a few cents. QYLD, I guess for some, can be a short-term investment. But it is working out best for me over a long period and a possible income stream when I retire. I plan to have $800,000 in QYLD in the next 15 years. That would provide me around $8,000 in income a month before taxes. That and a couple of other investments plus social security if it is still around in 15 years and it somehow scales with inflation better than it has in the last three decades. I should be ok.
@@illslim2100 glad you have a plan and are sticking to it. Maybe if things are going well, your 800,000 in QYLD will be more like a million if the nav goes up 20%
@@MMuniz it will not go up 20%. If anything it will be down 20%, but the dividend will hopefully still be strong and my cost per share will be offset by the reinvestment of the dividend to the point that if QYLD hits $1 a share price. I will still be positive for my actual money I invested. This allows me to sell at any time and not feel the loss as much and move to something else if this investment begins to tank. Right now with dividends factored in, the shares would need to hit $12 for me to be even for the money I actually put into QYLD every month like clockwork. I have never once bought a share of QYLD below $ $15.00.
I do a tiny portion into JEPi and JEPQ also. It’s a pie slice in my m1 portfolio. Not too well versed with the other two so I’ll check ‘em out. Merry Christmas!
