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Red Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks, Trade and Escalation 

Perun
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28 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 1,3 тыс.   
@PerunAU
@PerunAU 9 месяцев назад
Happy new year everyone - apologies in the delay getting this one up but I appreciated the short break, as did the team. I haven't used this episode for reflections on 2023, as it was recorded before the New Year, but will do so in the coming episode(s). I hope you find the small audio flub in this episode amusing (surely Prosperity Garden is a decent alternative operation name, right? my sound guy outright refused to remove it as he found it funny) and I look forward to seeing you again later *this* week.
@jakalordarkblood4331
@jakalordarkblood4331 9 месяцев назад
Prosperity Garden, the operation to ensure the middle east is green again
@Syndr1
@Syndr1 9 месяцев назад
Hi Perun, I'm gonna need a note from The Dean on this one,lol.
@brettpuckridge9522
@brettpuckridge9522 9 месяцев назад
G'day mate, love your work. I think you missed sea in the thumb nail.
@fireiceuk9221
@fireiceuk9221 9 месяцев назад
I admire your work ethic (and anyone on your team). From the poll I thought you will skip this week. Oh, and 16 hours is not a short break, it is barely enough time to sleep and rest.
@Paludion
@Paludion 9 месяцев назад
Happy new year to you too, and thank you for uploading during the holidays.
@DannyHeywood
@DannyHeywood 9 месяцев назад
As a wise man once said: "Ships need water to do Ship Things" - Perun 2024
@flowerpower8722
@flowerpower8722 9 месяцев назад
Boaty McBoatface: 'Here's a man who speaks my language!'
@Jacobstx
@Jacobstx 9 месяцев назад
The wise man immediately followed up with "If there isn't enough water [...] the ships can't ship."
@WackadoodleMalarkey
@WackadoodleMalarkey 8 месяцев назад
And Dr Dre said Nothing you idiots Dr Dres dead he's locked in my basement
@tomhern5463
@tomhern5463 8 месяцев назад
Not much competition at this stage
@pr0xZen
@pr0xZen 8 месяцев назад
We so sory, shippyship no shippyshippy
@elijahsnow3119
@elijahsnow3119 9 месяцев назад
You were sadly very correct about what would happen when non state actors started using cheaper drones after figuring out the implications.
@JoanneLeon
@JoanneLeon 9 месяцев назад
To be fair, people have been talking about this for a decade now, since ISIS started dropping small munitions from drones. In fact analysts have been talking about the impact of the use of drones by all kinds of actors since the war in Iraq.
@elijahsnow3119
@elijahsnow3119 9 месяцев назад
@@JoanneLeon True and quite sensible. It was more of a reference to Perun’s own observation in his earlier videos on the subject.
@jonatand2045
@jonatand2045 9 месяцев назад
Seems youtube doesn't like the mentioning of glassing as a solution.
@Dap1ssmonk
@Dap1ssmonk 9 месяцев назад
@@jonatand2045so based bro, so based. Bold and brash.
@jonatand2045
@jonatand2045 9 месяцев назад
@@Dap1ssmonk Seriously think about it. The prosperity trade brings to many is more important than a few. Besides they get saved from living in Yemen. Of course it is not geopoliticaly feasible, but one can dream.
@Argosh
@Argosh 9 месяцев назад
Spare a thought for the poor mariners. Crew scheduling is a nightmare at the best of times. This situation will have people stuck in what amounts to purgatory for months...
@awannagannaful
@awannagannaful 9 месяцев назад
How about sparing a thought for the 2.3 million Gazans, who are getting bombed in their own homes since months, and the only people standing up for them are equally poor and destitute Yemenis? If anyone gave a crap about them, instead of covering for Israel's war crimes, those ships would all be safe as houses.
@lifeontheX
@lifeontheX 9 месяцев назад
While your content on the conflict in Ukraine is important (please don't stop), I find all of your other content so outstanding that it gives very accurate picture of ongoing world events. If I appreciate all the work and research you put into this.
@matthewriffel188
@matthewriffel188 9 месяцев назад
Perun has become almost a religious ritual for me over the last two years. I’m forever recommending various videos to people who mention anything he’s ever discussed. It feels a crime that they are available for free.
@pansepot1490
@pansepot1490 8 месяцев назад
⁠@@matthewriffel188 they are not actually free though, unless you use an ad blocker. You either pay with your time watching ads or pay the RU-vid premium subscription. I just point this out because your comment gives the impression that Perun doesn’t receive compensation for his work. He does. And the compensation is high enough that he can afford to hire a “team” to produce these videos. We all win.
@Limonadetaart
@Limonadetaart 9 месяцев назад
Such a flex to humbly apologize for being one day late once or twice a year while providing such consistently excellent content every week
@stilllooking7996
@stilllooking7996 9 месяцев назад
Like a Japanese train coy making a public apology for a 12sec departure error. Dependable reliability and responsibility.
@mercenarygundam1487
@mercenarygundam1487 9 месяцев назад
@@stilllooking7996 And somewhat worryingly
@YMandarin
@YMandarin 9 месяцев назад
Tom Scott be like
@antonyjh1234
@antonyjh1234 9 месяцев назад
You leave brittany alone.@@YMandarin
@AZSprocket
@AZSprocket 9 месяцев назад
The level of snark in this video is much bigger than usual. I love it.
@andrewharrison8436
@andrewharrison8436 9 месяцев назад
Even American healthcare got a mention. Agree, it's fabulous
@embreis2257
@embreis2257 9 месяцев назад
22:16 his remark about 'insurance' was a surprise. is it so bad he had to explain this in the past?
@flowerpower8722
@flowerpower8722 9 месяцев назад
@@andrewharrison8436 Oooh yeah, now the gloves are off.
@adz951
@adz951 8 месяцев назад
​​@@embreis2257It's a bit of a dig about how because housing is so expensive in Australia that it's becoming very rare for the younger generations to own property.
@brianwallace9997
@brianwallace9997 9 месяцев назад
Perun, I want to wish you a heartfelt, warm New Year’s greeting. As I sit here grading my student’s very well researched major paper in economics while fighting a virus, I am very mindful of how much effort you put into each of your weekly presentations. I would like nothing better than to crawl back into bed and put this off for another day, but marks are due in, and it can’t be put off. Yet here you are, rain or shine, sick or not, travelling or at home, 52 weeks a year, producing amazing topical presentations that require as least as much research as my student’s paper (which took a term to produce). And you do this while holding down a day job. Incredible! and so much appreciated. You have become my Sunday tradition: Coffee, a fresh croissant and Perun. All the best for the new year.
@NanarStudios
@NanarStudios 9 месяцев назад
41:02 "The stars and stripes don't have magical power" BLASPHEMY
@odinsrensen7460
@odinsrensen7460 9 месяцев назад
I think maybe you mean "HERESY". But I guess "blasphemy" works too.
@andrewharrison8436
@andrewharrison8436 8 месяцев назад
@@odinsrensen7460 I like both!
@OneMoreDesu
@OneMoreDesu 8 месяцев назад
I like that because you are Australian you speak with a pace that respects my time and I don't need to speed you up.
@Canoby
@Canoby 9 месяцев назад
Could we be seeing the birth of a new age of maritime piracy? Or are we just becoming just more aware of what a problem this is, and it just started being an issue for the West recently?
@PerunAU
@PerunAU 9 месяцев назад
Pirates usually need to take over a ship - interdiction where it's enough to sink or damage a ship is potentially more of an issue in the drone / affordable precision era.
@Canoby
@Canoby 9 месяцев назад
@@PerunAU Thanks for the thoughtful response. Love this channel BTW
@Canoby
@Canoby 9 месяцев назад
@@domtweed7323 I'd imagine this could become a thing as drone technology becomes more common and cheaper- right now Ukraine is successfully retrofitting commercially available drones into grenade-dropping platforms. IDK how useful this would be for pirates, but I'd imagine someone will try deploying such drones against private shipping sooner or later.
@burhanbudak6041
@burhanbudak6041 9 месяцев назад
@@Canoby commercial drones as weapons is Pandoras box. Wouldn't be surprised if a world ban is implemented on private drones.
@syjiang
@syjiang 9 месяцев назад
Its an intersection between historic geographic vulnerability and newly available, affordable means of attacking shipping by actors with such interest. This region has historically attracted military conflict over sea trade like the Ottoman-Portuguese war of 1538.
@kylewhite5695
@kylewhite5695 9 месяцев назад
Mate, this is a masterpiece. Excellent work both describing the current situation and predicting how this situation and situations like it will evolve.
@heinedenmark
@heinedenmark 9 месяцев назад
The frigate Denmark is sending, is a Iver Huitfeldt class. It has really good sensors. SM2 and ESSM missiles. Two 76mm Oto Melara Super Rapid cannons and a 35mm CIWS. It also has Harpoon Block 2 missiles, that can hit land target. It' has a Seahawk MH60R onboard and and Special Force detachment (Frogmen Corp).
@grahamstrouse1165
@grahamstrouse1165 9 месяцев назад
The Danish frigates are pretty well-suited for dealing with drones. They’ve got pretty extensive gun systems & good EW suites. The main issue with the Burkes is that when it comes to anti-drone missions nearly everything in their arsenal is overkill. They’ve got their 5” main gun, a couple of 25 mm autocannons & Phalanx but that’s about it as far as low-end ordnance is concerned. And 25 mm guns & CIWS system are really only useful for self-defense, which limits their value as escorts.
@heinedenmark
@heinedenmark 9 месяцев назад
@@grahamstrouse1165 Yup. The 76mm guns can engage the same target or two different targets. The ammunition is equipped with Leonardo's new 4AP multifunction fuses. And the 35mm Millennium Gun uses AHEAD programmable airburst rounds.
@JoanneLeon
@JoanneLeon 9 месяцев назад
Since Maersk is the second biggest container shipping line in the world and carries a big % of trade, I'm happy to see that they are contributing something
@lek1223
@lek1223 9 месяцев назад
it could be an absalon... and you might ask, why send a ASW frigate when there is a AAW frigate... well, last war we sent a submarine to a desert war. v0v. Also, the guns does not shoot every time and it does not have any of the actual missiles, it have the capacity, but a inventory of 0
@heinedenmark
@heinedenmark 9 месяцев назад
@@lek1223 That's BS. It's going to be a Iver Huitfeld. I know a guy that's been called up for the mission. And it's loaded with both SM2 and ESSM missiles. Never heard anything about the guns malfunctioning? Where do you have that information from?
@unhumanized
@unhumanized 9 месяцев назад
Its always amazing how impeccable your upload timing is.
@agcantarero
@agcantarero 8 месяцев назад
Honestly one of my favorite videos of your channel. Understanding how technological development may affect global trade and politics is something that we've come to expect from your channel, but honestly you might be the best creator for this kind of content in the whole of RU-vid. Amazed how quickly your prediction of non-state actors utilizing these technologies came true. Keep up the good work!
@tillerzeit
@tillerzeit 9 месяцев назад
Hi hapag us employee here. Really appreciating the in depth review of this is this stuff does affect everyone
@snapper_maelstrom7960
@snapper_maelstrom7960 9 месяцев назад
"For my millenial and gen z listeners, insurance is something bought by people who actually own things" mint joke Perun 😂 22:14
@chrislilliannorton177
@chrislilliannorton177 9 месяцев назад
Yes, I noticed the meta-commentary on our socio-economic equity problem too... Funny and true, but sadly terrifying in its own way!
@acars9999
@acars9999 9 месяцев назад
Great video as always. You raising the new threats (like the Ukrainian 'jet ski' drone boats) made my blood run cold. I had not considered that. It will only be a matter of days or weeks before the Houthis get those from Iran. They aren't that hard to make.
@jefferyshute6641
@jefferyshute6641 9 месяцев назад
Thank you, for the thorough yet concise way you present your lectures. I say "lectures," because it is akin to a university classroom scenario, albeit more interesting and entertaining. Kudos for the research and well written presentations. Once class begins, I soon find myself immersed in the subject and unable to be easily distracted. As I learn more about geopolitics, the more I appreciate how people around the world are interconnected. Thanks for making learning fun again!
@thebashar
@thebashar 9 месяцев назад
If you are going to do an episode on the LCS class, I would love another episode on the USCG new ships. They are in the process of converting their fleet to just three ship types: National Security Cutters, Offshore Patrol Cutters, and Fast Response Cutters. I would love to hear your thoughts on the program and the ships.
@MM22966
@MM22966 9 месяцев назад
Jesus. I just realized this is actually the conflict the LCS were built for...and you only see Burkes on the board. LOL!
@dalkgamler
@dalkgamler 9 месяцев назад
Thank you for another great PowerPoint presentation. Even though i didn't expect one during the holidays. Please make sure you continue to enjoy making these and take a pause if you need one.
@fl4g
@fl4g 8 месяцев назад
It blows my mind how Perun is able to create this amount of high quality content with such frequency, and still has time to add absolute zingers to every video.
@markoutlaw7702
@markoutlaw7702 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year! Good call giving your production team a little breather (even if it’s just you). Also, given my input on what the subject of this episode should be, I feel as if I tasked this briefing directly. So thank you for answering a question that has been bothering me beyond any reason. “Why are we putting up with this crap and why haven’t we just turned the launch sites into a glass beach?” I had not realized that the Saudi’s had been waging a sustained air campaign against the Houthi’s. As a more concrete thank you, I have now joined your Patreon page and urge others to do so.
@MM22966
@MM22966 9 месяцев назад
The Saudis may be the only people in the world with 4th generation fighters and smartbombs that still can't hit the broad side of a barn.
@OneLeatherBoot
@OneLeatherBoot 9 месяцев назад
@@MM22966 They managed to hit a few wedding parties and get quite a few air frames shot down. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_Saudi_Arabian%E2%80%93led_intervention_in_Yemen
@gaoxiaen1
@gaoxiaen1 9 месяцев назад
@@MM22966 The Saudis are a US "ally" that is cosying up to Russia. What's up with that? That's the first question that the Saudi ambassador should be asked before selling the Saudis another bit of hardware or software! Or even beginning a conversation! Remember, "trusted ally" Israel was selling US tech to Saddam Hussein and Russia before the Gulf Wars!
@dragonmandestructinator2847
@dragonmandestructinator2847 9 месяцев назад
A great video as always, but i do have one complaint. You (and a lot of other people) have described what the Houthis are doing as 'Piracy', and I disagree with that label. Piracy is a profit-seeking venture, pirates are trying to make money. There have been multiple public statements from the Houthi government that their goal is to put pressure on israel to stop its seige of gaza. That would make their goals geopolitical, not monetary, and what they are doing either blockade or trade interdiction. This is actually quite similar to what the russians have been doing in the Black Sea, and everyone called that a blockade and not piracy.
@tonysu8860
@tonysu8860 9 месяцев назад
What the Houthis are doing does fit the definition of piracy. Although recent attacks might have a political reason behind it if you suspect the Iranians are instigating Houthi attacks, generally all ships that are boarded and captured are sailed to a friendly port and kept captive until a ransom is paid. You can say that Houthis attacking and capturing container ships has an unmistakable profit component for a warring faction that has no ordinary, legal means of generating revenue.
@martinjrgensen8234
@martinjrgensen8234 9 месяцев назад
i bet you are fun at parties “well actually”
@dragonmandestructinator2847
@dragonmandestructinator2847 9 месяцев назад
@tonysu8860 they did capture a couple ships, yes, but they have also been firing drones and missiles at ships. I doubt they would turn up their noses at a payday but I still maintain that's not the main goal.
@thecreature456
@thecreature456 9 месяцев назад
@@tonysu8860 then why have the houthis fired at ships? yes taking the ships are also a good monetary benefit obviously but they arent doing it just for money, they are fucking isreali ports that rely on the canal, isreal would be hemmoraging money if daddy america wasnt saving them with our tax dollars as usual. This can be both something to make money from and achieve the goal of pressuring isreal to stop its genocide within gaza
@AnnaBenIsrael
@AnnaBenIsrael 9 месяцев назад
Reminds me of a story about Alexander the Great who captured a pirate. Basically if you are Alexander (or Russia) you can call your robbery many names. If you are a rebel faction that is not recognized as a legitimate government... well, you are just a pirate.
@tomlauer9504
@tomlauer9504 9 месяцев назад
Perun puts outstanding content about real world issues!!
@LeftCoastStephen
@LeftCoastStephen 9 месяцев назад
My thanks and best wishes to you and yours. I truly wish your analysis weren’t needed but am grateful they are here.
@skyscraper5910
@skyscraper5910 9 месяцев назад
Also, it’s a little bit of misinformation that France is only escorting French flagged vessels. That was reported but then corrected soon after as their vessels were seen escorting other merchant ships as well.
@oliverlane9716
@oliverlane9716 9 месяцев назад
One point often missed is that Egypt does not allow any weapons to be carried through the Suez Canal. So ships themselves cannot be armed to defend themselves and instead are reliant upon contactors who board after passing Suez and leave before Suez.
@andrewharrison8436
@andrewharrison8436 9 месяцев назад
Interesting - I wonder if that will change (for a fee).
@gaoxiaen1
@gaoxiaen1 9 месяцев назад
@@andrewharrison8436 In a war situation, Egypt could go f itself if it thinks that it controls anything.
@barthoving2053
@barthoving2053 8 месяцев назад
Well in the Mediterranean there is/was no need for protection, so even without the that restriction the contractors would probably still get on/ off when entering leaving the Suez canal at the Red Sea . If more permanent defensive system is need employed, you probably going to look on some way to seal the system during passage and not have operating crew. Of course if a cost effective system for civilian ships can be designed and allowed in general by governments is a big 'if'.
@tomkelley4119
@tomkelley4119 9 месяцев назад
Hey - don't worry so much about schedule. I'll be here when you upload, and if it takes a few extra days to make an exploration of a topic that you're happy with, I'm willing to wait for that. Make sure you're making the videos you want to make, and make them sustainably.
@evilwelshman
@evilwelshman 9 месяцев назад
13:35 So, if you think about it, with the heliborne attacks on the Red Sea, the Houthis are technically literal sky pirates. Are we in a steampunk fantasy??! 😅😅
@Vandelberger
@Vandelberger 9 месяцев назад
Oh no, a Kharadron Overlord player….
@donkeysaurusrex7881
@donkeysaurusrex7881 9 месяцев назад
Crimson Skies: The High Road to Revenge
@carlosandleon
@carlosandleon 9 месяцев назад
Between Diesel and Cyberpunk
@evilwelshman
@evilwelshman 9 месяцев назад
@@carlosandleon Don't you mean BunkerFuel-Punk? 😁😁
@michaelgreenwood3413
@michaelgreenwood3413 9 месяцев назад
@@donkeysaurusrex7881 Dibs on the Hughes Devastator
@Anonymuskid
@Anonymuskid 8 месяцев назад
Mate, it's very nice of you to apologise for being late, but I hope you know your audience does not deem it necessary:) Thanks for all the hard work you put into the content you provide! I hope you will soon or already are able to live of it and enjoy it
@user-vg6gu8hl8m
@user-vg6gu8hl8m 9 месяцев назад
The section on Djibouti reminded me of my favourite Economist headline: Everyone wants a piece of Djibouti. It’s all about the bases.
@ag7898
@ag7898 9 месяцев назад
Hey look... a 1 hr Perun video on a 1 hr flight! PERFEC😌
@dummre83
@dummre83 8 месяцев назад
Have you ever thought about doing an episode about shipping with “What’s going on with shipping” the two of you with your extensive knowledge would be an interesting episode however some might find it boring but given some of your topics you have found ways to make the mundane somehow incredibly satisfying to listen to. Keep up the great videos Perun your productions are great.
@spitezor
@spitezor 9 месяцев назад
Couple of points: 1. The sword/shield dynamic, unless the shield grows stronger, is going to result in new international norms in how problems and problem states are dealt with. With something as critical as the global economy at stake, if matters continued to escalate (and especially if the Red Sea was as vital as the Straits of Hormuz), the solution to the Houthi problem will be, sooner or later: "What Houthis?" In brief, as the ability to Fuck Around increases, and conventional deterrence/countermeasures at proving insufficient or uneconomical, global actors will look outside the box and examine the framework within which "Fuck Around" operates and decide that artificial restrictions (e.g., morals, international treaties) on Find Out are no longer applicable. Obama-era concerns of if Predator drone strike on Jihadi Wedding inflicted too many casualties on non-involved persons are going to seem outmoded. Because when the stakes change from a potential maybe hypothetical terrorist attack on some American asset in the Middle East to "The EU economy is grinding to a halt and the EU is a stone's throw away from a revolution", you can bet that Houthis will end up as a footnote in history right up there with the Indigenous people of Newfoundland. 2. You've really set yourself up well for a video on the efficiency vs resilience debate. Building monstrously expensive yet super efficient cargo ships is all well and good when nutjobs aren't able to sink them with a few months work using nothing but a recycled jet engine, a cell phone, a vaguely missile-shaped cylinder, and several tonnes of high explosives. The capitalist drive for efficiency resulted in efficiency within the paradigm of the 1990s-2010s world order. That paradigm is clearly shifting on a multitude of fronts.
@airplanemaniacgaming7877
@airplanemaniacgaming7877 9 месяцев назад
"End up as a footnote in history right up there with the Indigenous people of Newfoundland." Ouch. Fellow Canadian?
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 9 месяцев назад
Some form of active “pacification” seems inevitable at this point, although I don’t think this means U.S. boots on the ground. There are other countries with capable military forces with strong interests in Red Sea security (or even the U.N. if it gets to that point). Some of these countries wish to assert themselves as regional powers independent from U.S. “hegemony”, and the U.S. would be all too glad to let them, so long as they are not hostile to the U.S. The actual goals of Operation Prosperity Guardian might be quite different than the current defensive operation we are seeing. Short term, I think the participants are more concerned with broad coordination-not tripping over their own dicks or the dicks of allied non-participants. It’s about military cooperation among interested parties-practical diplomacy of a sort. The Prosperity Guardian participants want to know what the French are doing and vice versa, for example. The last thing we need is a mishap leading to an incident, because a friendly warship shows up in a place where we weren’t expecting it. (Use your imagination, and you can imagine all sorts of screw ups if the various forces aren’t communicating closely.) Longer term? Longer term there really needs to be a foundation and multinational framework for security in the area, both locally and more broadly. Operation PG isn’t going to create such a framework on its own, but it might be part of an effort to coordinate those parties with overlapping interests, basic interests such as trade.
@tizi087
@tizi087 9 месяцев назад
well i can only say: even tough the Un hasnt done it for quite some time: Would russia really Veto any kind of UN force on the ground? or would perhaps another coalition for that says: well we help the internationally recognised govuerment! Either way the Huthis are going a fine line... because i am sure everyone wouldn't mind a ground invasion if that results in lower prices in the shops
@thecreature456
@thecreature456 9 месяцев назад
@@MarcosElMalo2 didnt most of the groups in garden leave and the remaining US vessels too scared of HOUTHI missiles to go forward with it?
@MM22966
@MM22966 9 месяцев назад
@@airplanemaniacgaming7877 Wasn't Newfoundland depopulated twice? Once when (I assume) the Frenchies got rid of the local Indians, and then again when the Brits evicted all the Frenchies and sent them to (I think) New Orleans?
@saint-miscreant
@saint-miscreant 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year, Perun! Looking forward to learning even more from you this year, and I hope your channel gets even bigger because you certainly deserve the recognition. Always appreciate the level headedness, levity and dry humour you bring amidst today’s news landscape. Best wishes for 2024 :)
@rositasultana3958
@rositasultana3958 9 месяцев назад
Some people want to put everyone down to their level of misery…maybe it’s envy, I don’t know. They don’t like to work and innovate and bring themselves to a better life on their own. But bringing everyone down to their level, hell yeah! That’s why I hated the Russian invasion in 2022, they had nothing to offer to anyone who knows what Mordor is and does. They just wanted to spread their misery and submissive way of life. We have to find a way to isolate these people and protect our way of life. Thank you, Perun, for bringing solid information every time. A happy peaceful new year to all!
@dr.brysonsfamilymedicine2453
@dr.brysonsfamilymedicine2453 9 месяцев назад
Excellent as usual. Thanks for your efforts to inform us.
@jakobneubert6801
@jakobneubert6801 9 месяцев назад
Perun, one of your very best videos. Super informative. Good job.
@williamholmes7529
@williamholmes7529 9 месяцев назад
A bucket of cold water moment for Globalisation. Thank you for another great PowerPoint presentation. all the best to you you and your channel for 2024 mate.
@Xezlec
@Xezlec 8 месяцев назад
This really gives some support to those who say the end of globalization is near. The increasing ease with which even nonstate actors can cripple global shipping suggests that some day, global shipping will become more or less a thing of the past, and nations will have to produce their own goods. Not a happy thought to anyone who understands the economic pain this will put us all under (especially the poorest, despite what anti-globalists believe).
@andrewgutierrez4841
@andrewgutierrez4841 7 месяцев назад
"At the Gates of Grief" sounds like a banger metal album
@JessSimpson1313
@JessSimpson1313 9 месяцев назад
Another great episode. I spent 8 years in the US Navy and hearing all the crazy going on right now all I can do is hope our government gives them the ability to defend the shipping and defend themselves till the rest of the world realizes this will impact them just as much and join the cause.
@JustAGamerA
@JustAGamerA 9 месяцев назад
US naval vessels have been defending themselves the whole time. And they defend any ships nearby
@JessSimpson1313
@JessSimpson1313 9 месяцев назад
@@adayinforever rarely have I ever seen a moral side in war.
@advancetotabletop5328
@advancetotabletop5328 9 месяцев назад
@a: Protecting worldwide trade is morally wrong? Of course, since much of the trade in the Red Sea benefits China (trade with EU, oil), I’m fine if we fuggetit. More trade for Canada and Mexico! :/
@cee5429
@cee5429 9 месяцев назад
How do you recommend we ensure the success of the starvation of millions of babies if Yemen isn't stopped? By the way are you only into torturing minors to death or do you enjoy other forms of child abuse?
@thecreature456
@thecreature456 9 месяцев назад
@@advancetotabletop5328 houthis have been open about they only attack isreali bound ships and have killed no one, so far only the US has killed people in the red sea, your defending corporate interests over human lives
@jonesy279
@jonesy279 8 месяцев назад
“The Gates of Lamentation” sounds like some Warhammer 40K shit. Very metal 🤘
@Klint_Izwudd
@Klint_Izwudd 9 месяцев назад
"Stop doing pirate things." "No" *Eagle screech*
@carlosandleon
@carlosandleon 9 месяцев назад
red hawk*
@Klint_Izwudd
@Klint_Izwudd 9 месяцев назад
@@carlosandleonOh yeah I forgot the bald eagle actually makes cute chirping sounds.
@MrBl3ki
@MrBl3ki 8 месяцев назад
Eagle is the one wearing the biggest eye patch.
@davidniemi4051
@davidniemi4051 8 месяцев назад
Thank you for the great video once again. Post'em when you got 'em we'll anxiously await you next in-depth review of the major goings on. Thanks again.
@eliseleonard3477
@eliseleonard3477 9 месяцев назад
Thanks for this! It makes sense out of the huge number of news stories about individual incidents. Happy new year 🎆👍🏼❤️
@pseudonym8791
@pseudonym8791 9 месяцев назад
Thanks again for an excellent presentation! Wasn’t even expecting a video this close to the start of the New Year so definite bonus. Seems that naval conflicts have generally been more prone to a disproportionate sensitivity to small threats due to the high rates of risk aversion in sending valuable assets into harm’s way - see Jellicoe vs the German High Seas Fleet for example...
@dataminerdaniel
@dataminerdaniel 8 месяцев назад
One of your best, most timely, and most important presentations, Perun! You are gifted with seeing the big picture, and drawing conclusions leaders need to learn now, or else. You do all this with a unique sense of humor. Thanks for a New Year of sharing your gifts with the world!
@braf7349
@braf7349 8 месяцев назад
24:40 I'm a software dev, and my boss has always told me. When something runs a day late on the project, you add a day to every task below it. So, being behind one day can result in you being behind dozens more days than you realize.
@h4wk5t4r
@h4wk5t4r 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year! Thanks for the thorough examination of global issues.
@emotingtanooki6405
@emotingtanooki6405 9 месяцев назад
Great timing! One of your videos is a good way to start a new year. Thanks.
@JTown-tv1ix
@JTown-tv1ix 9 месяцев назад
Very interesting & information video as always!
@flanaturalist
@flanaturalist 9 месяцев назад
Many thanks for priming my mind to think more like a geopolitical/military strategist!
@timothymachen687
@timothymachen687 9 месяцев назад
What a fantastic urine presentation and analysis! Thank you for all of your journalism and analysis during 2023. I hope that your keen insight and analysis continues into 2024. Happy new year!
@timothymachen687
@timothymachen687 9 месяцев назад
My fingers are too big to type. I dictated. Obviously I did not mean urine.
@timothymachen687
@timothymachen687 9 месяцев назад
I meant year end.
@odinsrensen7460
@odinsrensen7460 9 месяцев назад
You can just edit your comment and change the word.
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 9 месяцев назад
@@timothymachen687lol. and I thought auto carrot was bad. I propose that you let the error stand because it’s funny. 😅
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 9 месяцев назад
@@odinsrensen7460 How does one edit one’s comment without using their fingers?
@Chilled_Mackers
@Chilled_Mackers 9 месяцев назад
Superb as always Perun, thank you muchly.
@DeaconBlu
@DeaconBlu 9 месяцев назад
Great vid mate. Very eye opening for those not well informed. Keep up the great work! Thank You!
@BrettBaker-uk4te
@BrettBaker-uk4te 9 месяцев назад
What's Going on with Shipping has excellent coverage of this and other maritime issues.
@zyly42
@zyly42 9 месяцев назад
I was waiting for this video! good one Perun
@calebbearup4282
@calebbearup4282 9 месяцев назад
Hot diggity. I've got 90 minutes to listen to this!!! Thank you so much for the release
@pewpew192
@pewpew192 9 месяцев назад
Excellent! Perfect listening for new years day chores!
@metamaxis
@metamaxis 9 месяцев назад
It is a bit terrifying to see how one small thing in the grander scheme of the world can form a massive global bottleneck, with the capacity to ripple costs and force decisions around the world. Sometimes, I do worry the international rules based order might not last as long as we'd like. But I think you might have been a bit too close to the mic on this one, some of that vibration sound came through at some points.
@OrjanGrahn
@OrjanGrahn 9 месяцев назад
Yes and why China is so afraid how narrow the Malacka Strait is. 😊
@advancetotabletop5328
@advancetotabletop5328 9 месяцев назад
@O: But China has that mighty navy of ships! Some of them can even reach the Red Sea! :P
@DakotaofRaptors
@DakotaofRaptors 9 месяцев назад
Think of it as ASMR, Metagross
@demun6065
@demun6065 9 месяцев назад
There will still be trade between the Americas, Europe, Australia and some parts of Asia. Trade will become more regional, in my opinion.
@MossadDid911
@MossadDid911 8 месяцев назад
🇺🇸 puts sanctions against poor nations then pretends to care about “international commerce”. Truth: they only got involved for Israel 😂😂😂
@johndawson8281
@johndawson8281 9 месяцев назад
Great briefing --retired US Navy Officer.
@RonOhio
@RonOhio 9 месяцев назад
Need to accelerate the development of AA lasers, bring the cost down enough to put the "how long can we afford to do this" shoe on the other foot.
@Nejiranu
@Nejiranu 3 месяца назад
I also think that the affordable precision era we are entering into has massive implications for any future major conflict. A single reasonably sized ship, even one with the hauling capacity of an old Liberty ship, has the potential to serve as a carrier to dozens, hundreds, or thousands of potential drones. While weather at sea would be a definite problem, and limit the use of many current solutions we have seen, fixed wing solutions with sufficient thrust would be incredibly dangerous. This situation only becomes more terrifying when one remembers that a majority of shipped foodstuffs are in fact flammable, and would be particularly vulnerable to incendiary payloads. If a non-state actor, or state actor in the event of large enough scale warfare, were to begin employing a modern form of merchant cruisers, using such drones, it would likely take only a dozen or so strikes to render a load of grain, as an example, ablaze beyond the crew's ability to salvage. To say nothing of the effects should these ships be carrying flammables or explosives.
@teddybearroosevelt1847
@teddybearroosevelt1847 9 месяцев назад
This is truly a super interesting video again!
@JH-lo9ut
@JH-lo9ut 9 месяцев назад
Happy new year Perun. I think everyone agrees that the release date is fine. I saw the poll. Happy to find that at least 20% of your viewers share your dry sence of humor.
@robbabcock_
@robbabcock_ 9 месяцев назад
Wonderful! I didn't even know I wanted to know this stuff but it was fascinating.
@janetwilliams7705
@janetwilliams7705 9 месяцев назад
Extraordinary presentation. Thank you so very much.
@LichensLog
@LichensLog 9 месяцев назад
Really enjoyed this one. Thanks, Perun.
@Warpcaller
@Warpcaller 9 месяцев назад
Great job as always, keep up the great work!
@ItsAVolcano
@ItsAVolcano 9 месяцев назад
Panama suffering a drought right now is really compounding issues, as the canals are running heavily reduced operations meaning one of the key go-to alternative routes isn't viable right now.
@holyknightthatpwns
@holyknightthatpwns 9 месяцев назад
Is going through Panama a serious alternate route to the Suez? I don't know a lot about global shipping, but my casual thoughts on geography are telling me that there aren't that many routes through the Mediterranean that Panama is at all reasonable for
@i-Sparki
@i-Sparki 8 месяцев назад
@@holyknightthatpwns Going through Panama skirts dealing with piracy and a warzone. Companies willing to accept the risks of the two would go through the Suez but with the Houthis, they are likely to consider the Panama more and more. As stated though, a major drought is impacting operations and thus going through Panama is much slower now. It's why I personally think Egypt is likely to involve itself in Yemen sometime soon. The Suez is their money printer and the Houthis are threatening to cut it off. There's no way the Egyptian government would let the golden goose choke.
@ItsAVolcano
@ItsAVolcano 8 месяцев назад
​@dominichamer8929 drought in a comparative sense. It's still raining on a constant basis, but the annual torrential downpours were very light the last two years.
@bakawaki
@bakawaki 9 месяцев назад
Thanks for this video, very valuable topic to put a spotlight on.
@the-chow-hall
@the-chow-hall 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year mate, been watching since your first video went live and you've been a part of my week I look forward to every week. Cheers for 2024, thanks for keeping us up to date with new ways of seeing the world.
@PosthumousAddress
@PosthumousAddress 8 месяцев назад
Since his gaming days?
@majornikita1464
@majornikita1464 9 месяцев назад
42:10 its about to get real "proportional" around here
@jckluckhohn
@jckluckhohn 9 месяцев назад
Thank you, Happy New Year, you’ve made this much clearer!
@mihaylo_kovin
@mihaylo_kovin 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year! Perun thanks for your educational and skilful way to share the war-economic presentations!
@MattyK166
@MattyK166 8 месяцев назад
Dude...congrats on pronouncing Hangzhou correctly. Been hearing Hang-zow all week. Love your work. None of it boring. Nice pace as well.
@virariueb7182
@virariueb7182 8 месяцев назад
Thank you. Informative, entertaining, thought-provoking.
@lexvangelder2525
@lexvangelder2525 9 месяцев назад
Great pressentation to start the year with, and again you, Perun, make a good case for the notion that war is a sum of many things among of which ECONOMICS is one of the most important,touching us all where ever we are.
@Tk3997
@Tk3997 9 месяцев назад
Modern civilian vessels being larger and heavier isn't a weakness though. That's actually an aspect where in modern ships defensive capabilities have actually significantly improved, modern civilian ships are in fact by and large probably more directly resistant to damage then warships are. Nothing is armored anymore, so the main defense largely becomes mass and against unitary warheads that by their nature mostly strike above the waterline mass can be a very effective defense. Furthermore the crews might be smaller but the general provisions in terms of watertight sub-division and fire fighting equipment on modern vessels tends to be markedly superior. Still the main thing is that many of these modern freighters and tankers are just enormous, out sizing mid century capital ships easily and can thus soak up large amounts of HE damage as long as it's above the waterline which effectively all 'cheap' anti-ship options besides mines are. Their cargo also often provides a form of spall and fragment protection due to it's bulk and density. We're seeing this in action as despite numerous ships being hit, they're not sinking. Unlike warships in many cases there also isn't really much you can set off to produce a catastrophic kill on the vessel. It's also worth noting that many of the low barrier to entry attack methods are pretty shitty and could actually be countered fairly cheaply. You do no need Aegis to defend against lawnmower engine drones and simplistic ASMs. A few heavy machine guns/MANPADs/Good portable jammers and a couple chaff launchers would give you a very real defense against those. So within the context of like an acutal high intensity war where governments would be willing to authorize or furnish weaponry and equipment to merchant vessels these low end threats actually probably become less effective and given how expensive the high end threats are it's actually questionable if anyone could afford to waste them on merchant vessels that might soak half a dozen weapons to actually sink. Furthermore most of these weapons are only viable in small choke-point areas, none of them have any meaningful ablity to interdict traffic in the open ocean which makes it easier for a defender to know where he needs to defend and concentrate that defense. So I actually think this threat is to a degree overblown in it's likely effectiveness.
@eatingpancakesrightnow2786
@eatingpancakesrightnow2786 8 месяцев назад
Haven't been listening quite as regularly recently, but I really liked this video
@dzzope
@dzzope 9 месяцев назад
I mentioned this in one of your latest releases, really glad your covering it. @whatsgoingonwithshipping has been providing much insight but I'm glad to hear your thoughts on the subject in a more formally built format. The international norms we have all gotten used to feel like they are plunging into chaos, the long predicted wars over shipping lanes/choke points seem to be heating up / under threat from climate (Panama canals lack of water for instance) Peter Ziehan's talk on global watch last month is an interesting watch.. many strong predictions, from the man who apparently predicted Rus invasion of Ukr and when, i think it was 5 years before. Not saying it's anything like certain in playing out how he has stated but he makes many good points and possible conclusions. Demographics are a massivly interesting area to see how wealth distributes over time. (And the results of ose shifts)
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 9 месяцев назад
While I appreciate Pete Zeihan, I’ve found him to be less of a go-to guy over the past year. He’s often guilty of over-simplification. He sometimes gets things wrong when he strays too far out of his lane. And he’s subject to the forces of audience capture, despite being a forthright straight shooter (or projecting that image). He’s often light on detail. Other times he’s too focused on a detail and ignoring other important details. So I don’t know about Pete. He’s very good in his areas of expertise (demographics and geography). But he starts to fall short when he drifts into other areas.
@dzzope
@dzzope 8 месяцев назад
@@MarcosElMalo2 Absolutely, no-one has a crystal ball. Just an interesting look into demographics and how China's are apparently about 10 years ahead of where we thought they were.. The speculation 8nto what WILL happen beyond is just that and should always be taken with some salt.
@Mikelike60
@Mikelike60 9 месяцев назад
I suppose that the goal should be illuminating the benefits of global cooperation (globalization) when it is referring to shared prosperity. Your work is unbelievably impressive, I wonder though, do the right people see it?
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 9 месяцев назад
We are the right people. I assume you are a member of a country governed by some form of consent? Your informed opinion matters to those that govern and now that you’ve been given information, you have the ability to amplify it and pass it on to your fellow citizens. Otherwise, the politicians will be listening to those with uninformed opinions to a larger degree, or to special interests. You matter, my friend. You might not feel significant, but if there are ten of you out of a hundred with informed opinions (even different or opposed opinions) and you’re having conversations, you’re providing a significant counterweight to ignorance.
@tonivazquez1081
@tonivazquez1081 9 месяцев назад
Thanks for yet another amazing video.
@emotingtanooki6405
@emotingtanooki6405 9 месяцев назад
Like a lot of strategic threats, I think ultimately it's going to be how aware politicians are of consequences from beyond their borders that determines things. If even half of the countries hurt decide to actively do something about it then the problem is easily solved. If instead most of the leadership of those countries decide to leave the problem to be solved by a handful of major military countries the problem becomes much harder to solve. Given global trends in politics, I don't have high hopes that very many national leaders will make the logical conclusion that just because they didn't cause a problem doesn't mean it isn't still their problem to deal with. It's the attitude of "I didn't set my neighbors house on fire, and it's not my fault my yard is flammable from lack of rain, so I'm not going to do anything" and then complaining when the fire spreads and burns down their house. I'd love 10 minutes with a number of leaders to point out how self destructive their inaction on problems like this can be. To avoid minor pain now, they are setting themselves up for the equivalent of amputations down the road.
@moritamikamikara3879
@moritamikamikara3879 9 месяцев назад
Or as Vlad Vexler would say, standing out in front of your house preaching about how people deserve a freedom from fire.
@boobah5643
@boobah5643 9 месяцев назад
If step one of solving the problem is 'build a military,' which will be a new problem even if it solves the old one, it's not surprising they don't do this when the problem affects people who already have a military and _also_ need to solve the problem. Their quaint little hut doesn't need to worry so much about fire when the mansion next door will take care of it, just to keep the fire away from the mansion.
@emotingtanooki6405
@emotingtanooki6405 9 месяцев назад
@@boobah5643 There are a LOT of options a country can use besides military force. For example, if Chile wanted to apply pressure they can publicly state they will be supporting people who Don't attack shipping with talks of favorable trade deals, it would cost them basically nothing and apply a little pressure to stop. The reason I commented on there needing to be a wider response is that Chile doing that won't matter much. If however, 50+ other countries do something similar the amount of pressure becomes a LOT more meaningful. And suddenly it isn't a simple calculation of "what can my opponent do to counter my attack" and decisions have to factor in "what happens when anyone who wants to try to stop me has multiple nations willing to back them in both material and immaterial ways"? The real world is complicated, a lot of small bits of pressure can sometimes have more force than a punch to the face.
@odinsrensen7460
@odinsrensen7460 9 месяцев назад
"To avoid minor pain now, they are setting themselves up for the equivalent of amputations down the road." No, even if your logic leading up to this conclusion checks out, they're only setting the COUNTRIES they're managing up for those figurative amputations. The politicians will be fine, they're "world citizens", the globalized class of the global world. The fuck do they care?
@TheVillageIdiotUk
@TheVillageIdiotUk 9 месяцев назад
I feel a bit of the late, great and immensely funny Clive James creeping in to the delivery of some of the humour.. An amazing piece of work. A happy 2024 to all.
@dmdrosselmeyer
@dmdrosselmeyer 9 месяцев назад
Happy New Year!! And thank you so much for the high quality content!
@linmal2242
@linmal2242 8 месяцев назад
Ah bravo. A new Perun popped up on my browser. Wundebar !
@chrislilliannorton177
@chrislilliannorton177 9 месяцев назад
You know you're in a Perun presentation in 2023-4 when aircraft engines and *avocados* are mentioned as high value shipping cargo 😅 Thanks again for another clear presentation of something intricate that seemed quite simple!
@deathflagdrac678
@deathflagdrac678 9 месяцев назад
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
@johninnh4880
@johninnh4880 9 месяцев назад
Thanks for another informative video. Happy New Year! Hopefully 2024 is a better year.
@Meinejambalaya
@Meinejambalaya 9 месяцев назад
If I understood anything, I need to buy Maersk stock
@seneca983
@seneca983 9 месяцев назад
Any info mentioned in this video is likely already reflected in the stock price.
@johngillan4475
@johngillan4475 9 месяцев назад
Happy new year. Thank you for your information video
@earlthepearl3922
@earlthepearl3922 9 месяцев назад
Well done! My best wishes for a happy and healthy New Year for you and yours!
@Julian-pj2zi
@Julian-pj2zi 8 месяцев назад
Brilliant presentation, thank you.
@polegaratho
@polegaratho 9 месяцев назад
Rejoice PowerPoint people ! 2024 Perun has landed
@Samuel-d3b6g
@Samuel-d3b6g 8 месяцев назад
Thanks Peru, happy New year
@therealuncleowen2588
@therealuncleowen2588 9 месяцев назад
Perun, it would have been completely understandable if you'd taken a break this weekend and last weekend and not put out a video either weekend. No need to apologize for shifting the release schedule both weekends. I'm sure all your listeners understand this, as do I. Although I did tease you be answering your recent poll by saying that the recent delay was an outrage. Thank you for the continued production of great content. Happy New Year.
@carlalm6100
@carlalm6100 9 месяцев назад
Nice nod to The Fat Electrician with the passage about touching uncle Sams boats. When you mentioned that the US took out two non-producing iranian oil rigs in retalliation, you forgot to mention the other part of the american "proportional response", that they aslo sunk one ship and severly damaged another.
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