RIDICULOUSLY EARLY Oscar Best Picture Predictions (March 2024) 

I say this because I feel Hollywood wants to see big epic films start winning again and with the mastery and praise of dune 2, Dennis being snubbed for the last film and people just keeping the momentum of it all year plus winning a bunch of techs will help it go to best picture. This years return of the king or titanic. The 2010s were more about the indie films and lower budget ones winning that not a lot of people seen, now it’s going back toward the way it was in the 2000s again. Just my prediction.

Good thinking with Almodovar. I wasn't thinking it would be possible for the film to be finished, but you're right, he turns around projects very fast! I'll add that into my long list. For The History of Sound, I think Wikipedia is wrong on that/is misinformed. CAA Media Finance is not a distributor, but a sales agent. They don't distribute films themselves as far as I know, but they're one of the biggest Hollywood sales agencies. They represented sales for The Holdovers, Sing Sing, May December, and hundreds of other films. - M

@@fantasyfilmball Good to know re The History of Sound. Have to say that I have my eyes on that film now. It also feels like that "elevated Oscar bait". Searchlight potentially bying it makes so much sense.

For the next three episodes! Unfortunately we're back to Zoom after that, as Dyl is back in VA. But we're hoping to do more of these types of meet-ups in the future. - M

Great points! I can see what you mean about before elections with Parasite, and potentially with Oppenheimer. If we go back a bit further, I don't see the comp as much for Spotlight in 2015/2016 as much as I do Moonlight, but can see the argument for The Artist in 2011/2012 being that Oscar voters were pretty happy with the state of things. Back in 2007/2008, No Country for Old Men also feels hard to pinpoint how it connects, while Slumdog Millionaire seems like the feel-good movie that reflects the hope people felt when electing Obama with his promise of "Yes We Can". You are absolutely right about the directness being a potential issue with The Apprentice. I don't think the film will be very on the nose in its approach from what I've heard from people who have worked on it, but the subject matter itself may be too direct. In terms of Dune, I think of it like Barbie's backlash trajectory last year. It came out, was immensely popular and beloved, and very quickly got hit by the "it's not that good" crowd. Some people were very loudly anti-Barbie, and those people faded out when the movies left theaters because it wasn't as much in the zeitgeist anymore. When Oscar noms came out, the Barbie haters came out of the woodwork to proclaim "how dare the Oscars nominate this?". The backlash for Dune will still be here when Oscar noms come next year, and the haters will get loud about it. It won't hurt the film much overall, but it just shows an attitude that'll keep the film from winning Picture IMO. (As a counterpoint, EEAAO did also have a fair bit of backlash, but it seemed to come pretty late in the season, and it seems like it was too late for the haters to gain traction against the wave of love that film had). - M

Interesting! The question then becomes, what do Searchlight have? Makes no sense to put Kinds of Kindness in summer if this is the case, and A Real Pain I don't buy under any circumstances. Nightbitch and In the Blink of an Eye are also doing Hulu, and A Complete Unknown hasn't even finished filming yet! From this point, Supremes looks like the best option.

We'll touch on this deeper in a few weeks, but right now I think it's between The Lord of the Rings and The Wild Robot. I've heard from people who have seen the LOTR trailer in focus groups that it looks breathtaking. Inside Out 2 is borderline for me based on the spotty track record of Pixar sequels that aren't Toy Story. Moana 2 is out imo because it feels like a cash grab, based on the fact it was meant to be a Disney+ show that they retrofitted into a movie. I think just like last year, it's another year where Disney is gonna misfire heavily. Transformers One seems interesting. I'm also looking out for indies like the new Sylvain Chomet and the new Michel Hazanavicius.

Oh my god you're right, it was Danielle Brooks on Broadway, not Danielle Deadwyler. Shout out to me for only reading the first name. Weird that they kept the rest of the cast the same, but swapped Danielles.

I will gladly take my L if it fails, but if it does connect, I shall reap the benefits!!! - D

Great shout out with Those Who Find Me, that's one of my most anticipated of Cannes, and I do believe it could be a big breakout. If my Emmanuelle prediction out of Cannes doesn't work out, Those Who Find Me would be high up my list of international contenders (as would Parthenope - Paolo Sorrentino feels like a filmmaker that could get into Picture/Director some day).

I also got to check it out last year, and while I found the film to be fine, I felt like the buzz around David Straitharn as an Oscar contender was manufactured. I could see him end up being nominated for an Indie Spirit, but he feels like the type of performance that gets Sundance buzz and never goes anywhere (like how Lily Tomlin got Oscar buzz for Grandma in 2015, which never went anywhere after the festival).

@@fantasyfilmball I see. I understand that. Actually, I enjoyed Jane Levys' character more. Thank you for the response!

Divisive in the public maybe, but are we really expecting an anti-Trump movie to be divisive within the Academy? I don't think that's a message many academy members are gonna be bothered by at all. In fact, I'd go as far as to say you automatically have a bigger campaign from very vocally anti-Trump actors like Robert De Niro, who will no doubt endorse the film through the season. - M