There is a big difference between wanting and having. Sometimes the hunt is better than the kill. people save up, wait for the rolex , wear it and take pictures for Instagram. Few months roll by and the allure fades away. You start wanting for the next big thing and the process begins anew.
This is one of the reasons I don't mind waiting for the call on my ceramic Sub. I can wait and enjoy the AD experience. But to tell you the truth, I've been tempted with the new prices to pull the trigger recently. Considering the tax and fees, it's equalizing fast.
So you by any chance have the data to compare the diagram in 4min30sec to an average over the past 5-10 years? My feeling would be: bi-metal has traditionally been relatively unpopular and I don’t consider it unusual that full gold is trading below retail. My point being: this chart looks rather normal and expectable to me, once you ignore the Covid bubble.
I don't have data going back further than 5 yrs. But from past comments, I do agree that bi metal has traditionally been less popular. I recall the out rage when the Explorer I went bi metal. "It's not a true Explorer!"
Well done and thought provoking. Also thank you for confirming that keeping my watch spending powder dry is paying off. After the Pandemic I adopted the philosophy of not paying over list for a Rolex. Which means either I buy from the AD in new condition or wait for the gray market to reset to prices before the Pandemic. Patience is a virtue.
Great work. Another sign of how bad the economy is - and going to get worse. Last week I stopped at the boutique to remind the salesman I was still alive; asked to try on the Skydweller because I thought it was probably too big w the long lugs. Fit. So asked to add it to my list; 5 days later I got the call for the S&G with the champagne dial. No hesitation. And I’m on a huge metropolis, 1st buy at that store. Keep your powder dry gentlemen…
I travel at least 2-3xs a year and I’m perfectly happy rocking my Tudor BB GMT. It’s simple, has vintage vibes, does everything a Rolex does and doesn’t get too much attention which is perfect when you are in sketchy areas.
In retrospect - the predictions you made sir, happened. Although not with immediate effect on the grey market - like many brands, Rolex is having a depressing decline in prices. I know a guy who is one of those so called "premium gray dealers". With the exceptions like Speedmasters and other few iconic models from different brands, he has hard time trying to flip Submariners. He was used to getting them sold in about a week. Now he only renews the listings, but buyer's interest swindle lower and lower. A lot of people are saying that prices we continue to decline little by little.
Thank you. And I agree on continued price declines. The US economy is slowing. And dealers are still dumping. BTW, I'm seeing grey dealers list Subs at ridiculous prices to make it appear the average is still high.
We are surely going back to the times of the '80 ,when AD's across the globe were giving up to 30% off their stock just to make some customers walking in to buy these overpriced timepieces in the first place
I never understood the appeal of a GMT, I just don't like the extra hand and crazy bezel. If I need to track multiple time zones, I take off my sub and whip out my GShock, a 5610U-1. Great analysis as always!
If you want the most accurate time you can also use your phone. A watch is an accessory piece, fancy jewelry that has a function. Don’t think too deep into it.
@@danschlacks7188 if you don’t do business with foreign partners or have friends/relatives living overseas, then probably not a complication you need. Now do Chronos…
When I travel, I usually wear my 'mission impossible' g shock. Don't care if I lose it, or bang it up, or spill coke on it. I also have a Glycine Airman which I prefer for a GMT watch. Love that thing!
Using these extreme luxury models with gem sets to trend anything is nonsense. 👎 You should have trended the standard yellow gold and white gold models. I don’t buy into Rolex hype nonsense but your dataset is flawed using such high priced models from extreme luxury side, and trying to apply it to the larger market.
That's the average. Steel is holding up the average and it still went down. The precious metals are really suffering. And once the new Rolex production comes, the steel models will take a hit.
Thanks for the video, as always good info,, but when you look at the chart dating back to all the way to 2019, prices are just returning back to it 's pre-pandemic / pre-hype prices, right? I mean every watch has been on a steady decline to pre-pandemic prices if we look back at Feb 2024.. Also, what about Pepsi Meteorite version, you missed that one being 10-15K over MSRP vs your run of the mill two tone or all black? Doesn't it vary from model to model with the precious metal?
My feeling is that there is no pre-pandemic pricing. The markets don't have some kind of memory of the past. This is a spin put out by grey dealers to make people think we're near the bottom. But even this analysis shows prices doing down.
@@mywatchjourney6579 are we looking at the same data (Go to the bottom of this page and look at the 5 year graph) .. www.chrono24.com/rolex/rolex-gmt-master-ii-pepsi-meteorite-dial-white-gold-126719blro-2022--id34661027.htm
GMTs are good value. You can get a vintage coke or Pepsi or even TT ceramic oyster for 13.5k or less. You can also get a SeaDweller 43 for the same price.
Agreed. Tremendous value in vintage or near vintage Rolex. I think especially the vintage GMT line has lots of romance of the golden era of air travel.
Rolex always used to be smart at the trade up journey, but the price increases in the solid gold pieces have left them expensive as a trade up and versus alternatives. I'm interested in a white gold yachmaster 42. I tried one on in my AD, and it was offered as a instant purchase. I declined, as I know a 2 year unworn with full box n papers is currently on sales for £6k less in the uk. That difference is a great holiday or a car for my son.
Until we see another surge in consumerism, luxury watch prices will keep dipping until a reasonable point of equilibrium is reached. I think there are a lot of potential buyers for these watches, but they’re not willing to invest until they’re in a good financial position, and until the prices are attractive to them. The watch market will never be as dormant as it once was ever again. Just as with the quartz crisis, the tech boom drove the demand for mechanical timepieces down. Now that they’ve grabbed our attention once more, we’ll always be mindful of them. The day my AD calls me to inform me that they have an OP for me at 20% off retail, I’m definitely heading over.
I absolutely love watches, the high end watch brands are out of my budget but the amzwatch has literally an almost duplicate of every single watch on the market . Always a great but no matter your budget.
@IamnotJokic the difference between retail and market pricing is easy enough but Rolez doesn't even disclose how much they sell never mind trends for a particular model
@@Rommel1988111 there are plenty of sources (eBay sales, Bloomberg Subdial index to name two) - but agree that it doesn’t cover all sales (private) and could include dealer to dealer (prices we mortals will never get). He should give credit to his source.
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I have “real” watches and a lot of them. I have a friend who buys the #MAMACOO we put them side by side and guess what ?! It’s unbelievable!!! I am at the Rolex boutique with her and no one can tell he has a fake
