Russell Napier. Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now. 

His 21 lessons are: 1. Spend as much time analyzing supply as you do demand. 2. GDP growth has no relation to future equity returns. 3. Gordon Pepper’s Law: When you see something unsustainable, calculate the maximum period of time that you think it can persist. Then double it and subtract a month. 4. Never think about anything else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives. When forced to choose, governments will give up control of the exchange rate. 5. Governments like markets as long as markets produce the prices governments want. Governments aren’t neutral and they take sides. 6. Mean reversion of corporate profits to GDP is strong: In a free society, this will remain true. 7. Assess monetary policy based on both the quantity of money and interest rates. 8. The most dangerous form of speculation is the reach for yield. 9. Populism is not a threat to countries with strong constitutions. 10. The best way to predict if a country will default on its debt is if they have previously defaulted on their debt. 11. When equity valuations are high, they fall slowly with inflation and quickly with deflation. 12. Never buy emerging market equity in a country with an overvalued exchange rate. 13. Tourism is the best indicator of an overvalued exchange rate. 14. Always buy equities when the CAPE is lower than 10, with three exceptions: when you believe communism or fascism will occur; when you suspect your capital stock can be destroyed by war; or if your currency has entered a new currency regime with an overvalued exchange rate like Greece in the eurozone. 15. Democracy is more suited to operation of capital controls than the free movement of capital. 16. Government does not have to print to inflate away debts because they have citizen savings (using financial repression) so hyper inflation will not occur in developed world. 17. Technology never defeats inflation. 18. Monetary systems fail about every 30 years. 19. Money is almost always in disequilibrium. 20. Never trust a forecast that has a decimal point. 21. Extrapolation is the opiate of the people.

My portfolio for the past 30 years has always been self managed and I own 3 shares of RPC WEALTH IAF Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK:A) which I bought in at about $17,000 during the mid 90s, I’m currently liquidating some of these positions to incorporate new Gen. Stocks, but am I better off re-investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now.

This is truly excellent. Russell is a font of wisdom.

It’s truly criminal that this doesn’t have more views.

Thank you all for producing this.

As an economist, a teacher of economics, and a person who personally takes care of my savings. Out of all educational books and free available content online, this is by far the most superior and comprehensive perspective on the next two or three decades.

Russell is brilliant as ever.

Excellent talk with profound insights. Thanks for uploading, and thanks to the Ytube algorithm for pointing me to it.

Thanks Russell 👍🏻🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Russell is an applied intellect, combining the hard yards of knowledge acquisition with real world commercial nous. The fact he makes the complex so easy to understand is the cherry on the cake.

Library of Mistakes - what an interesting idea. Never trust a decimal point - what an interesting idea! Lessons from History - what an unpopular idea! Subscribed.

Great speaker. Talking about why GDP growth doesn't have a relationship with stock market appreciation he references a 120 year old study and then quotes Warren Buffet: "price is what you pay, value is what you get" if you overpay it can take time to have value. Excellent

Very informative and simply brilliant lecture!

Excellent thanks

The old system is not being replaced. The existing system has evolved, evolved again and evolved again. The beginning was a time of societal control over the commons, a control based on tribal association characterized by an absence of hierarchy and an absence of private property in the commons. With settlement in one place and the growth of permanent towns came the need for law relating to property. The appearance of hierarchy results in the hierarchical claims to property that had once been the commons. Property law favored those who by heredity and by coercion gained control of the commons. They became the landed aristocracy. When deeds to land were established under laws of possession, they by the charging of rents orchestrated a redistribution of wealth from producers to this non-producing rentier elite. To agrarian landlordism was added commercial landlordism, then industrial landlordism and finally financial landlordism. These forms of landlordism has combined to result in the accelerating concentration of income, wealth and hierarchical power that dominates the world's societies today.

Thank you Russell this lecture was amazing

Brilliant.

You had me at "Library of Mistakes". Those who live outside the box, with a wink and nod ❤

AMAZINGLY GOOD VIDEO 👏👏👏

Wow - felt like I was in the room with RN. Excellent - thank you.

Fascinating.

Just wow, great speaker

Muy bueno! Incluso con una referencia al bono a 100 años que metio Toto Caputo con Macri en Argentina... jeje Gracias Señor! Ahora con Milei, esperamos pagar todas nuestras cuentas.

Thanks Russel for getting rid of the San-Ti threat. Good to see economics was your passion all along.

Truly one of the best

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Well, Greece is one example where the people are forced to give moneys to the government to create surplus, just to pay foreigner debt back. Foreigner being mainly German and French banks... This is the shortest and msot accurate explanations I've heard!

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

While Mr. Napier makes all the point of supply and demand like economists always do, not one mention of the basis of law, and whose law. Perhaps it's time to revisit the classic Greek philosophy of Aristotle who questioned the ethics of usury itself. "He believed that people obsessed with attaining wealth, would be too preoccupied to participate in the polis and fail to perform their civic duties". (Kozel, Philip, 2006. “Aristotle’s Discourse on Commodity Exchange.” In Market Sense: Toward A new Economics of Markets and Society. New York and London: Routledge, pp. 17-30). We see the breakdown of the nation states on a global scale today for this very reason.

Very interesting....

Regarding #9, read the "Great Taking" by Tom Webb.

Section 5 big Corporation. It's a natural progression for capitalism to end this way as described in Marx's theory of capitalism. It takes socialist (not neo liberalism) to revert this back to sustainable levels.

The most troubling thing is when he talks about Weimar Germany "Why didn't they mobilise the peoples savings? A because they didn't have any" But that is the case in America today with the vast majority having no savings, and even those earning $100 K claiming they can't make ends meet. Von Mises Crack up Boom theory comes to mind.

Point #6 I believe the “free society” you speak of is specifically the structure change most deny due to bias

Sorry about typos, in a rush, you get the jist.

Master

Logistics/ supply chains are fundamental. Brexit, COVID reminded us just how crucial these are, beyond assessment of supply & demand 😮

All interesting but the truth is that no one, especially academics no what will happen next. Historians particularly, they will tell you exactly who something happened during in the past but use lots of “possibly” or “likely” and so on when talking of the future.

Did he release a book about this? I can’t seem to find anything. Would love to read more

At the start i feared that this would turn into a goldbug but at the half way point it had interesting ideas and I'm optimistic that it won't turn into that.

Ask the General Motors bondholders if the USA has "the rule of law".

During this excellent talk I found myself often thinking, "I'm glad I own bitcoin." With bitcoin I can enjoy deflation as the nautural good order. Inflation is theft of the wealth that deflation naturally brings to society. As technological advancement and debt spirals drive currency debasement I find that everything continues to cost less in bitcoin terms. This is the most interesting aspect of bitcoin, it gives little guys the ability to front run giants. Putting myself on a bitcoin standard has worked wonders. I would say to others not to wait. It is still early.

So if you calculate the returns from stock and or bonds, around 4-12% p.a., for the last 20 years, deduct the inflation rate of around ( my opinion) 14-20%, just check your rent, mortgage, power or food bill if you have any doubt to what the current inflation rate is…you are in my opinion not even hedging….I looked into theasus for about the last 5 years and found bitcoin has had the highest returns over any 4 year period….do you own homework, someone’s Nobel Prize isn’t paying your bills…Take care…

Where is more literature on Pepper’s Law? Origin/person etc

Is there a Rule of LAW? Ask Mr T. that question about NY City

I wish I had smart friends who were interested in this…..

I was not able to come away with any actionable knowledge. Anyone else???

First step: have rich parents Second step: be rich

If all information is in the price explain ... 1994 - 1/8th of an Oz of Weed was $35 (+/-$5) in North Jersey 2024 - $25 - $50, the range is quality & marketing. Note: the quality is higher now (2022 - 24) as a starting point than any point before 2001 or after 2008. How has quality improved? Availability is unchanged and legality has not impacted price.

37:30 In what instance Turkey has defaulted in its debt?

That’s what happens when you have a historian look at economics. Math is lacking so rigor is lacking. But assertions are abundant.

re: 22 ish ... yes, whether a man, woman...any human, shall we say, would be impartial...

🪶

I know someone is legit when they talk about supply. Supply is demand, as I like to say, as in a farmer's supply of wheat will dictate, after its sale, his demand for meat and livestock, say.

Countries that impose sanctions on other political systems, often end up as economies which suffer the brunt of retaliatory sanctions. Can the US mkt afford to remain solvent in the face of such a rational response by China ? As for investments in stock mkts of other countries .. let's consider the opposite side. Why would a country allow an entity of another country to invest in their stock mkts unless they are absolutely sure that the investment isn't actually .. DEBT ? Thirdly, 2008 was a time when people did lose everything. Before that, in 1999. After that, in 2013-14. In different regions of the world, not all at once, but pretty horrific anyway. So, the belief that it's the rule of law coming between someone and their bankruptcy is really quite flawed.

Chinese currency is not pegged to USD

I learned a lot from this video but I disagree that governments do not have to inflate to deal with debt. Russell had some of the opium of the people: he is extrapolating the past. The US and Britain managed to deal with high debt/GDP ratios after WWII without hyperinflation, but now they cannot. Reasons: 1) properly accounted (including Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare), debt/GDP is 1000% now, 2) Populism has decidively won its battle against the forces of fiscal conservatism: now both the Republican and Democratic parties are fierce advocates of fiscal profligacy, 3) the enemy is no longer a centrally planned economy, but a mostly market economy, 4) the environment and natural resources are a much more serious problem, given that population and GDP are much higher. Argentina was wealthier than Switzerland and France in 1920. The US is going to follow a similar path. Because that is what the American peopke will vote for, just like the Argentines did.

Disagree on democracy: That is where you vote on taxes!

If we like it or not: The upcoming changes in society and economy might - in alignment with Amara‘s law - be much bigger than we can imagine right now. What about 100‘s of millions, even billions of young and smart people opting out from the outdated systems of hopelessly indebted nation states and join newly emerging, global ‘network communities becoming network states‘. This can get such a dynamic that no tanks, no airplane-carriers will be able to stop it. The current global governance systems are to us like teenagers forced wearing his/her childhood shoes, no longer feasible in our age of probably irreversible globalization and in coping with the impact and threats of modern technologies. Of course this can trigger moving into the wrong direction with tech corporations taking over the world. Therefore it will be crucial to work on protecting the rule of law and human rights in this next phase of the digital transformation, requiring a ‚Next Generation Internet‘ based on open source, decentralization and self-sovereign identity. Some signs of hope are popping up in latest EU strategy papers, but this will require each and every ‘humanist’ to become active very rapidly, otherwise we will end up in 2084 or a Mad Max world.

There is no Nobel Prize in Economics. Alfred Nobel did not create any such thing. The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was created by some Swedish bank in the 1960s. Of course using Nobel's name was just a coincidence.

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Is ignoring the depreciation of durable consumer goods and not talking about planned obsolescence part of the "Olde Rules?" What is NDP, Net Domestic Product? GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda

President Xi can change one of two things the off shore yuan or GOLD. The world will no do well with a cheaper yuan. China will do better with gold at +3000USD Why cause the own a nationally and individually. Higher gold means pressure on USD. Higher gold does not fuel higher CPIs around the world

10 times CAP? What the heck dos that mean??

It seemed an interesting talk, until he tells that the state gets its money from peoples savings. That is dumb and wrong!!! Even war bonds were never meant to finance war costs!!! Please dont talk about things that you seemingly dont understand.

He is clearly clueless about some of the things he talks about.