Rule 1 of war: Don't pick a fight with countries who are richer than you. Rule 2 if war: Don't pick a fight with countries whose friends are richer than you.
Friends who show for three year they don't interesting in victory of yours or even civilized peaceful coexistence on European continent. It's insanity, just use million people as living shield, when at that time buying russian gas&oil and support restoration kremlins potential for continue russian war in Ukraine. It's seems not friendship when not motivated stop kremlin war for save Ukrainian population or giving full aid for it.Endless genocide by endless war it's not friendships. When helping dictatorship regimes from both sides forbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice. After all so rich friends which friends if for continue war against freedom and democracy and lives of ordinary population, especially victims of war in Ukraine which forbbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice save lives from danger situation with kremlin drones, missles or nuclear strikes...War for extermination of ordinary population which less then more after all. Genocidian Endless kremlins strike to ukrainian people from technologies and money of friends to kremlin. Why not stop genocide relatively as in Kosovo or Ukrainian population not deserved it? Humanes relationship as in Kosovo?
This is why its so important to commit to long term investments in the Ukrainian defence industry. Putin will only negotiate in good faith when he knows he cannot win!
Good faith? Too late. They should have adhered to the Budapest Memorandum, which Russia presumably signed in good faith. Then they wouldn't have this problem.
When they understand they lost that war, they'll get rid of Putin. Putin will not be given a chance to negotiate. It's too late for him. He should have negotiated in the summer of 2022. I'm guessing the FSB will dismiss Putin and they will negotiate. The sooner the better.
@@sanguiniuethe thing is, they already have. Vlad Vexler actually pointed this out in a couple of his videos, where he talks about the neoliberal ruzzian thought process of weighing the potential risks and benefits when singing up to the meatgrinder, and the Kremlin doubling the paycheck as a means of increasing the number of contractors.
Though it was predicted that Russia would last until early 2026, we also need to factor in the recent Russian firework displays that are being held at the different military storage facilities.
Sure, this is the exact same kind of analysis clown that believed that the sanctions would cripple the Russian economy or that Russia was having to break into dishwashers to get microchips. Russia has plenty of money, raw materials and trading partners to be able to sustain this war until they have won the war, which will likely happen before the end of this year.
There were no real fireworks yet. I'm talking about cities in Europe and America. But you are pissed off to really fight with Russia. Ukraine will fail only because it’s mathematics. Russia has more resources than any other. And there are not so many Ukrainian military personnel left.
Those losses were primarily munitions. Russia has largely used their stockpiled munitions and is operating from current production. So those losses are likely to have a immediate impact on pace of operations, but not on the longer term forecast. Equipment is where the big shortages will be. Tank refurbishment likely hit an inflection point in June or July 2024, where expanding capacity crossed the decreasing availability of readily rebuildable hulls. All-new T-80 production resumed quite some time ago. New T-72/90 hull production might do so as well. Other classes of equipment, especially aircraft, simply require expanding new production at a level the the existing factories can't support.
What many seem to forget is that russia wont quit when 2026 rolls around and the savings run out - pootin will just have to ask China for loans - say for some 99 year leases in Siberia
people that do not have Russia for a neighbor do not remember Czechoslovakia or the Partition of Poland...They do not understand that if the UK and France had attacked Germany in 1939 then that part of WWII would have been over and they may have even gotten Stalin to leave Poland...maybe...if they had show some backbone in 1939, then Anne Frank's grandchildren would be running the streets of the Netherlands. There was a poster in the US in WWII saying: "Give them the tools to win"... funny, that seems to resonate even more today....and not funny, but politicians today are just as bad, self serving and foolish as they were in 1939.
I think Western countries have a moral obligation to help Ukraine defend itself. This is a very clear-cut case of one country invading another country. This is even reinforced by having to send a message to other potential aggressors around the world - that not respecting countries' borders has a very very high price. This is even more reinforced by the fact that this invasion - and the war since 2014 - could be seen as Putin "punishing" Ukraine for choosing a freedom-outlook. It's imperialism. We must support freedom-loving people. The Ukrainians are fighting their war of emancipation from Russian imperialism. - All those reasons apart - there are also more "selfish" and pragmatic reasons to support Ukraine so they win - or at least don't lose - the war (Remember that in a real sense, in war, noone wins): Russia has been and continues to lose much of it's military and industrial power, significantly lowering the potential for future wars. Every Euro and Dollar spend on Ukraine will have to be spent less on defense in the long term (potential peace dividend). We must therefore see that Ukraine is fighting "the good fight". Rarely has there been a more clear-cut case between "good" and "evil". The West is benefiting from them fighting on. We have to support them much more - to save Ukrainian lives and to send a message to fascists like Putin all across the world.
The situation in Russia is like that guy who jumped from a skyscraper. When he reached the 50th floor, he was asked from a window how everything was going. He replied that so far, everything was fine.
Before this war started it was commonly stated that Russia's economy was the same size as Italy's. But not as diverse...why do we know often see Russia as some kind of superpower. It isn't.
In the best years, when oil prices are very high, yes maybe a top ten economy in the world. But on average they are more like the Netherlands ~15-18 in the world. The West is keeping Ukraine alive (unfortunately not more than that) basically without even noticing.
That’s because Russia can make more tanks out of an Italy sized budget than Italy. Because labor (and life) in Russia is cheap. And also: Nukes. Russia isn’t a global power, it’s more of a global nuisance.
@@Grimshak81 This. It's how Russia chooses to invest and its impact on the world that makes it a 'superpower'. Take away their nukes, aggression and absurd military spending and they're nothing special. This is also why imo so many Russians resist change.... they don't want to be 'no better than Italy and leagues below Germany'. They want to continue believing they are something special, not the nuisance they really are.
Factors driving Russia’s inflation: 4) sanctions regime reduces supply, being massively outstripped by demand. 5) price hikes for logistics 6) massive increases in taxes (companies need the increase prices to keep profitable) 7) exchange rate collapse of the Ruble, further escalating price hikes for industry and consumer business.
....and when you were in Russia last time!!?? When you watcing this channel, it means you watching someone who predicted for two and a half year.....and failed. Look to this channel 2 years ago......what did he predict, and what happened in reality? If your conclusions are correct, then explain to me.....the russian economy was the strongest european economy growing in 2022 and 2023. This is about GDP, it is about math!! And this was made by the IMF, and not by some russian propagandists. I often go to Russia and i see myself how things develop. Continue watching this channel, and Anders the "molbo" will create one more idiot.
@@angeurbain6129 "In your dreams" the simple principles of economics don't apply. But then you get to wake if you've not been sent over the top in a meat wave attack.
@@bakedbean37 This is not just what is happening in Russia. Wars have a cost, but up to know Russia can manage this cost quite well and can do so easily for the near future. Russian export are still strong and the money Russia is making out ot these exportation basically cover the cost of the war in Ukraine. Now you also have to look at the other side of the equation: the cost of this war and the santions against Ruia for the western economy. And don't forget that the ukraine is living on the western welfare.
A little something about economic capacity. Russia has a share of 2-3% of global GDP. Ukraine is supported by countries that are responsible for around 50% of global GDP. With inflation in Russia, the 8-9% figure is very implausible. In Russian Telegram channels, there are repeated reports of price increases of 25-30% in the fall for various products and services, such as food, air travel, telephone tariffs, etc. Without naming the basket of goods used for inflation and the prices charged, they can write anything Putin wants.
who cares? are you living in russia? i couldn't care less whether they have 0% inflation or 200000% inflation. the thing that i care about is the fact that gas prices and taxes are through the roof and groceries and everything else has doubled or tripled over the last three years ever since our incompetent and short-sighted leaders started virtue signaling with this whole project ukraine thing and started pushing failed backfiring sanctions that have destroyed our economies and completely deindustrialized countries like germany for example. venezuela has had either 1.5 quadrillion or 15 quadrillion percent inflation since the 1980s with most of it happening within the last 15 years, and have they collapsed? have our sanctions changed anything, or have they just backfired and just increased gas prices ever since the oil industry in venezuela was destroyed? have the sanctions caused their little dictator to go like "awww, quadrillion percent inflation over the last 20 years since supreme comrade chavez.. gee, i guess i better resign now" or are they still in power? so please, stop with the nonsense about how russia this and that and inflation in russia and blah blah. nobody cares about inflation in russia. we're not russia. nobody cares if comrade ivanovitch from siberia is paying 30% more for their phone bill. russia is not gonna collapse because comrade ivanovitch is angry about his phone bill going up. the russian military is going to keep getting everything that it needs. russia has near infinite soviet stockpiles and infinite resources and energy that everyone wants to purchase and that are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars per year allowing them to keep chugging along as if nothing happened and keep making their own stuff and purchasing everything else that they need and continue this conflict indefinitely. unlike zelensky that is begging and breaking the eardrums of our leaders for more cash. unlike ukraine that depends on charity from our taxpayers on the other side of the planet in order to keep going and that has received nearly half a trillion dollars so far in the last two and half years with absolutely no signs of progress in literally two years now. quite the opposite, they're getting worse and worse and are now right on the verge of collapse. so yeah, spare us the stories about russian inflation. not only have we heard these tales a hundred times already, but it has absolutely zero impact on any of us.
@@issadraco532This comment is completely irrelevant to the wider conversation of sustainability for Russia’s war against Ukraine or its economy. If you want to rant about isolationist rhetoric the pen and paper for a manifesto are right next to you.
@@issadraco532 Your comment is a fever dream of nonsensical arguments for disconnected discussions. You might wanna take a deep breath and re evaluate the way you express yourself if you want any chance to be taken at least slightly seriously by anyone. Good luck
@@Princip666 No. Putin is doing that. Obvious truth. Ukraine is fighting for its sovereign independence. Take a look at their neighbouring Poland and get the message. Poland also faces potential damage from Russia just as it did from Hitler and Stalin. Poland is in NATO and an ally of Ukraine and preparing.
@@Princip666 You seem to have drunk too much vodka, because otherwise you would have noticed that the parallels between Hitler's Germany and Putin's Russia are astounding. And if you want to make comparisons, then you had to compare Ukraine with Poland, but with one small difference. In WW2 Poland was invaded by Russia and Nazi Germany, and Ukraine now only by Russia.
Indeed Germany lost the war mainly from a logistical sustainability issue than military. It just couldn't sustain the level of production, especially against the ever increasing production levels of the Allies. Both Japan's and Germany's strategy was to strike quickly, giving a knockout blow and grabbing desperately needed resources. Both failed to complete the job.
Thankyou Anders.! Can I add, from a modeling perspective, that models like the logistics curve predict a surge in recruitment incentives or payments just before the available manpower starts to run out. That model predicts that after the spike you can offer whatever you would like and there simply aren't people who want it. This suggests that the pool of voluntary recruits may be much smaller than it appears at first glance. Its a simple toy model to be clear and doesn't prove anything to be clear but there is cause for worry here if your modelling the Russian side. It shouldn't be controversial to speculate that by 2026 there will be serious issues. Quite the opposite as far as I can tell. It would be borderline insane to suggest we can be confident the Russian side will be stable through 2026.
This assumption is running under the belief that Russia is taking heavy losses on the battlefield, which they are not. Clearly they are taking losses, but their numbers of losses are nowhere near what the western media is trying to tell us they are. Russia would have to have losses in the millions to trigger this, their losses are nowhere near this. Nearly everything this guy has said is pure fiction. Russia is not running this war off of their savings, the US is not the only country that can run deficits and keep their economy going. The Russians did not find expensive ways to bypass the sanctions, they are just trading with the rest of the world.
All of this does not need 20 years of experience in military matters. It commen economics. A main issue in the west is what uneducated children we allow to be journalists.
@@James-sh4zf 'It is common' to be even more pernickety. The second sentence isn't constructed in an especially educated way either. Still if the writer's 'name' is Ork then maybe there's a clue there 🤔😆
@@James-sh4zf If you substitute "commen" for "common," he's right. And Anders was surprised that the journalists hadn't figured out this by themselves.
This is not because journalists are uneducated, it is because journalists are overworked. They have to produce as many news as fast as possible (to compete with social media) leaving them with minimum time to research. A journalist working on daily news normally gets a topic in the morning (a topic that they could have some expertise or none at all) and they have a number of hours (less than working day) to research, contact, produce and edit it. And they cannot give more time to produce better news because they need to have the news fast (if you are not the first publishing nobody will read them), and media makes not enough money to, lets say, double the number of hired journalists (because less people consume traditional media). Imagine that tomorrow you need to produce some news on the last developments of the war in Ukraine, the day after on the US elections, the day after on the public opinion in your country/state about the economical situation in your country/state, the next day on the last UN report on climate change... This is what journalist have to do nowadays. The consequences are obvious. It is a super complicated problem and nobody knows the way out, at least yet.
the West MUST not stop supporting Ukraine, Putins war machine is going to collapse very soon, !! He is DESPARATE !!!!!!! I am praying that the FOOLS in Europe understand that, !!!
Thanks for an excellent video on this topic. It’s aggravating here in the US, having to listen to “economic” arguments against funding Ukraine, which, as noted here, are really political arguments. In the US’s case, they are made mostly by the political right and have little relation to the actual issue. Worst of all, they signal to Russia that Ukraine could very well suffer more militarily, as they already have, thanks to our internal party strife and a Republican Party increasingly enamored with Putin. It’s appalling.
If there's a positive thing about what you described, it may be that this signaling to putin that they should keep going further seals their fate. If they were smart they would be able to look at things the way they are and respond accordingly.
Oh come oh this exact point is beeing said and reurgitated for years now. But where is the projection for upcoming disasters? He doesnt want to bet money on it because He knows it Could Take another 10 years before they collapse, if at all.
Agreed. Although I’d add that many key figures on the US right are far more than ‘enamored’ with Putin, they’re let’s say highly incentivized ($$) by him.
THE very best RU-vid channel to know exactly what is happening in Ukraine on the entire fronts on a daily basis is " Reporting From Ukraine " A MUST SEE !!!!
Russia is not a superpower. They have superpower nostalgia. Their entire economy is worth less than that of Italy. Or, about the same as Belgium + Netherlands. And yes, they will run out of equipment, its happening already as we can see with their use of motorcycles, Chinese 'golf carts' etc. I think it will happen sooner rather than later, as Russia would also need to preserve a minimum for protection against perceived incoming threats
@@ignatziusturret5641 Recently, Russians have suffered significant losses on the battlefield. They nearly surrounded Kyiv, occupied Kherson, and advanced toward Kharkiv, but were eventually pushed back.
Western leaders have said Ukraine should decide the terms of any peace agreement. This should hold. Isolationist approach and sanctions should remain post hostilities indefinitely as long as any part of Ukraine is still under occupation.
Sanctions could be used after the war to slow Russia's rebuilding her war machine to allow the West to strengthen theirs. Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain so a reduction in their nucs with a reduction in the west's nucs for a gradual lifting of sanctions could be negotiated. Also a gradual lifting of sanctions after Russia leaves Ukraine in response to Russia footing the bill to rebuild Ukraine
This is a remarkable and invaluable overview of the fundamentals of the war. The situation is explained in a calm, rational, and lucid manner by a professional military analyst. Upvoted and subscribed - thank you Anders Puck Nielsen !
I am Russian, live Samara. Much of what these says is truth. Inflation is very bad in Russia, there is a thought that it will be like 1990s years once again
All sound points, but it's frustrating to listen to them as a Ukrainian. Ukraine doesn't get enough help to outlast Russia even now, and who knows what happens after elections in the US and other countries. On top of that, our demographic situation is horrible and keeps getting worse. The economy is non-existent. The energy grid is destroyed. With the approach the West has right now, there is simply no bright future for Ukraine. Either we lose, or we somehow survive but remain without people, economy, infrastructure, and probably a significant portion of land.
You are absolutely right, coming from Denmark, a country that "donate" a lot IN COMPARISON, the truth is, its not something we really feel as an economic burden in our daily life. So we can afford more, and so can the rest of Europe. Ps! Dont like the word "donation", but could not come up with a better word. But the truth is, that its the Ukraine that do the hard part.
Russia is the last still existing colonial empire. More than 200 nations still living under Russian oppression. Most got Russified hard 😢 Ich hoffe Russland wird bald enden wie das britische Empire 😊 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪🚨
5 months ago: Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign: will the Russian economy collapse? Today: Russia's war economy is unstable Tomorrow: why are the sanctions not working?
@@lancerevo9747 Absolutely. I'm stunned by the level of propaganda western medias, who supposed to be free and objective, pour every day just for clicks (hopefully not for interests of their governments). I actually inform myself from "eastern" channels, they're much more objective. Sad, but true
Very sensible analysis. Lots of bots trying to persuade western audiences to abandon Ukraine, Russia has too much resource etc. Even Their revised budget increasing 20+% again is all about convincing people they have no intention to stop until Ukraine falls. They can and will keep going (Putin has no other option) but they will inevitably collapse at some point. West strategy should be to protect Ukraine and save as many lives until that day. They could be doing much more in that respect
Please explain how Ukraine will win this conflict, specifically this war of attrition. Russia has a population of 160 million, while Ukraine currently has a population of 20 million. Who runs out of soldiers first? The West has already poured $300 billion into Ukraine and it has not stopped Russia. Europe and the USA's weapon stores are being depleted and they lack the industrial capacity to replenish them at the rate that Ukraine is consuming them. What more can the West do, other than use nuclear weapons? There is no appetite among fighting age men in the collective West to fight Russia. A recent survey showed that if conscripted, 70% would refuse to go.
@@terencedonohoe9123 I just wanted to say that labeling those who have a different opinion with bots means that those who use those labels have poor or no argumentation. I live in a country whose soldiers left their bones in Russia three times in the last 200 years fighting for others, and against the Russians, it is legitimate to question whether to do it for the fourth time, especially knowing the fact that the Russian army has never been in the country where I live.
Russia believed its own hype. Having a huge land mass with lots of natural resources and a bellicose/shouty leadership does not a superpower make. You can view Russia in a completely different light: a huge, sparsely populated country that doesn’t have the GDP to maintain and develop its own resources. It actually has the same amount of sealed motorway as Taiwan, despite Taiwan being about 500x the size. That alone should raise eyebrows. It’s got the same GDP as Texas despite being 25x bigger and 5x the population. Every stat you look at puts Russia at a huge disadvantage, until you start counting nukes. But I think Russia knows that thats a no going to cut it anymore.
They lost approximately 6 months of ammo this week. so direct effect on frontline, how and where to store it, logistical nightmare, the huge cost (2x because they need to remake, rebuy), production time etc. oh and more of these ammodumps Are in range....
It's a snow ball. They lost more as their restock capability is 4 million short of workers. Their ability to transport resources around russia to produce military stuff is also deminished, due to lack of personnel and parts cost/ access. Finally, financing of all this endevour is shrinking.
@@feuervogel1880 i understood that the 1st ammodump was 3 months worth. and they hit 2 more, and a number of smaller ones. in truth its all a guesstimate of course, but let's settle on Lots ;-)
@@puraLusa yupp. also, rail system is collapsing and what no one seems to talk about is the ballbearing issue. russia can't produce them well. bad quality. so they were always importing them. And Everything needs them. factories, truck, trains, planes etc.
The price and availability of FOOD will be the breaking point for the average Russian citizen, just like the USSR. Putin doesn't remember his country's economic history.
Naw, it's a drone thing. IFV is a massive target lose a whole squad, you get a squad of bikes and lose a guy or two Russia don't care. Way cheaper too.
lol i think its more about a show of disrespect. they dont even need real modern troops to beat others.. just because their culture isnt one of luxury seeking entitlement
I have stopped being surprised by how out of touch people that have been following this war for a long time can be, The average journalist or average person has no clue what is going on. That Russia is spending far more money than it can afford long term has been clear since very early in the war, yet people keep talking about Russia being able to afford it indefinitely. Keeps being painful to hear for sure, but it is not surprising anymore.
To those that feel that Ukraine should just surrender and agree to Russia's terms I ask this; why should Ukraine and it's citizens, who were invaded without provocation by Russia, just agree to throw away their country without gain and give up any hope of joining the EU and NATO? Why should they give up their aspirations to be more prosperous and secure? If this happened to your country would you be able or willing to do such a thing? Joel
Just for general development ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-k1CvjeKibR0.html&rco=1 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-wHmX8boBKps.html&rco=1
@@evgeniya7853 In none of those years was Ukraine threatening russia. A civil war in Ukraine is Ukraine's problem, this doesn't give you the right to invade. You don't like how your citizens are treated in Ukraine? Get them out of there, instead of you taking the land. Sorry, but the CONTEXT you talk about only makes it worse for russian justifications
Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. It sure isn't a grateful job 😊 With the Russian penchant for hardship and lack of public opinion, it's near impossible to predict what will happen in that country. Only thing we can do is push as hard as possible by keep sending material to the Ukranians as well as relief to the population.
Yesterday l found out how high real inflation is in Russia. I was watching a Russian video on RU-vid and an advert appeared from a bank offering 25% interest on savings. It also tells you there is a shortage of capital
In the first year after sanctions have been empowered. Inflation in Russia was as high as 60%… from that high level on its now rising about 20% y/y and higher. 😊
Yeah, it has been extremely bad and getting worse since 2022, sadly the western press is busy talking about how Russia can keep this up forever to actually fact check any politician's or Russian state media claim.
It’s not “investment,” it’s spending. And it’s not spending on producing things people can buy, but on stuff that will wind up blown up in Ukraine. Workers and military families with more and more money to spend on fewer and fewer consumer goods equals inflation.
I don't know why anyone couldn't see this. They are essentially spending their money on products they are throwing away in Ukraine. A finite ability helped by decreased revenues from sanctions.
A war economy can be squeezed as hard as it needs to be squeezed. Economic hardship will make people easier to control. The regime won't break until it's put under external pressure. The lesson here isn't so much Germany 1945 but 1918. The German army wasn't stabbed in the back, it's got it's face smashed in with a brick. The military was in control during 4 years of stalemate. Only when in a period of 100 days the military situation got untenable did they shove the civilian leadership in front of themselves to end the war. Look at Britain in WW2, did Chamberlain resign over lower than projected growth? No, the trigger was the loss of Norway. Was Churchill under threat because of disappointing quarterly economic figures? No, military defeats, all of them. The economy became an issue for voters again when the military situation was under control. In both cases the social and economic situations were extremely dire, but they needed the external trigger to put the leadership under question. Without that trigger the war economy will muddle on for years. Maybe that was part of what Ukraine had in mind with Kursk. It needs to be seen to take the initiative and inflict defeats on the Russian Army.
Thanks Anders. Those of us in the US who support a Ukrainian victory must vote for the Harris/Walz ticket as the only way to ensure continued US support, along with a Democratic Congress. Vote Blue! 💙 Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
@@ethandearman3965 Grow up. The russians voted for 1 person for > 2 decades who started more wars than any US admin ever has. Meanwhile Biden admin warned putin "don't do it".
There is another factor - support from China which has its own serious problems in the economy but still has the capacity to prolong significantly Russia's war effort. China's help is not free though, and the price Russia is paying for it will become only steeper.
China has consistently shown it prefers access to Western markets, such as they are, to access to russian markets. Also, the Chinese are facing an economic crisis of their own now.
China has no interest in sacrificing its own economy to prop up a failed Russian one. As China has made clear for years now, Crime is a part of Ukraine and the Western economy is China's only serious customer, sure it would like Russia to keep existing, but it isn't going to commit suicide just to help Russia hold on a bit longer.
Wartime economies can last longer than expected. In South Africa, for example, sanctions began in the 1970's, but the real impact was only felt some 15 to 18 years later in the late 1980's. The government of the day was waging a war in southern Angola for that full period, producing the majority of goods domesticalky. This is why it is a strategic imperative for Ukraine to attack the oil refinieries in Russia. That strategy alone will have a significant economic impact. It should be followed by attacking oli puming stations and railway bridges and large marshaling yards. That will prevent the movement of material and oli etc. Thanks for the insights, they are, as always on pointe.
Ironically the end of South Africa's war in Angola coincided with the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are many factors at play in geopolitical conflicts.
Russia may have stocks of soviet era equipment but after years in the open and no maintenance what is left is very dubious. Despite claims their manufacturing output is still poor and again of dubious quality. Personally I think 2025 is optimistic before their economy fails.
I know you definitely didn't intend this, but this is great timing! It's a great addition to the latest Perun video on the Ukrainian economy. Almost seems like you colluded haha.
Hopefully Western leaders will grasp the truth of what you are saying here and be more committed and forthright about continued support for the liberation of Ukraine.
You don’t think the Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots deep inside Russia with jet drones will eventually make it impossible for Russia to supply their troops?
They will adjust by moving the ammo back out of range. But it will make things even more inefficiënt and that will permanently negatively affect the front line. Plus Ukraine can always build new drones with a longer range.
The majority of Russia's ammunition depots are far out of range of Ukrainian weapons. You forget that Russia is largest country in the world, spanning 7 time zones.
Anders I believe you are right. Industrial wars usually don’t last beyond 4-5 years. For example American civil war, First world war, Second world war, Korean war etc etc Insurgency can last longer but not industrial convertional wars
@@Dennis0824 That’s why he mentioned insurgency wars. The coalition won the Iraq War the Afghan War. It just failed to secure the peace. Counterinsurgency is a very different type of war than a war of attrition.
@@MarcosElMalo2 You are correct. Counterinsurgency is very different from a war of attrition. It can be argued that a counterinsurgency is far more detrimental to the economy than a war of attrition, especially over the long term.
The main benefits to Russia are that productivity must be increasing and their industrial base must be broadening. These will pay dividends after the war if they handle it well but certainly the war is both an economic and social disaster for the country.
This is the goal of sanctions! Add some constrictions to native dictator ego. the Dictator will never adjust his ego, forcing economic consequences to take up those unsustainable changes.
Hopefully the analysts predicting that Russia will run out of resources are right, however just for the record: During WW2 the UK had 6 years with military spending of 30% or above of GDP, the US had 3 years. Ukraine has now had 3 years and Russia 0. If Russia wanted to, had popular backing and the good bureaucratic systems they can keep up the current or even higher levels of investment for decades - luckily it seems none of the prerequisites are present.
It would be wonderful if you could do a video on the effects on logistics after the recent attacks on the ammunition depots at Toropets and Oktyarbr'skii in Tver Oblast and Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar Krai.
Thank you, excellent as usual. Minor correction. Tanks do cost more. First wages go up because labor shortages, second the imported electronics cost more because both sanctions and currency decline against the yuan
Thank you Anders for this Statement! I'm a German intl. Management consultant and I totally agree! In German press and TV they are telling us the same story!!!! And the Russian government tells every day the same lies!!!! I see a total breakdown within one at least two years. 😂😢😮
A lot of commentators can mess up the timeline but the trend is same. It's impossible for Russia to sustain this indefinitely. PS: please comment for RU-vid algorithm.
Russia needs Trump to win so that the military support for Ukraine and sanctions are both canceled. I agree that under the current conditions Russia is done in about a year.
It is more likely that this war will be over before the next president takes office in January. Under the current conditions, Russia clearly has the upper hand. If Trump wins, he will cut all funding to Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table. The USA can no longer afford to fund this conflict.
I've seen a lot of MSM interviews of experts on the conflict, the majority say Russia can't sustain this conflict and the interviewer simply ignores them, then continues with scripted questions. I can't remember seeing an intelligent interview on MSM about this subject, even long format current affairs programs don't go into half the details found on YT. YT channels such as this one are far, far more informative.
"Sanctions don't work" is a thought terminating cliché. Getting the stuff you need gets more expensive, takes longer time, and you might just get an end of life crap component in the end instead of a factory fresh modern one.
War economy is not economy at all... Unless they take over territories and would plunder the wealth there. In this context war economy is like saying "opening and closing same holes without any purpose economy " but much worse...
