PLEASE start dating your videos in the description. I’ve been skipping much of what you post lately because I often end up discovering it’s a repeat that seems like new. It is crucial for context and to understand what the guest knows in terms of developments on the front. Thanks!
Was about to request the same, asking for the date of the interview, as publishing date my or may not correspond to current events and situations on the ground. These interviews are provide useful data as the situation is in constant flux....witness the current drone/missile campaign against refineries, air base, and air defenses.
Seems like this was from early May, before we saw any of the effects of the US aid supplies arrived and when the Northern front was looking difficult for Ukraine, when its now lost momentum and turned in Ukraines favour.
It's not just a cold shower - the water's freezing, and the math is bleak. We support Ukraine to the max now, or we end up having the same problems on NATO's eastern flank in a few year's time. Wake up, people!
We squandered that opportunity last year by sending our weapons stockpiles in piecemeal fashion and the Russians destroyed them all. We will never outproduce Russia in this current war now. Russia isnt going to invade further into Europe though, just considering the logistics makes that impossible. Dont fall for the fearmongering, make peace and rebuild rather than weaken ourselves further continuing this war.
@@rogerc6533 Peace on Putin's terms now would be a deadly trap. Russia is now in a war economy mode, has effectively destroyed its civilian sector, and it is committed to weapons production. While Ukraine is willing and able to fight it should be supported in destroying those weapons. I live in Poland, and we know our Russian neighbors well. Any solemn undertakings made will be worthless, any guarantees given will be broken, and any "permanent peace" proposals will be the prelude to a new war, when their army has had the chance to re-group and re-arm. Logistics in European Russia are similar throughout the region, with not much difference between the approaches to Ukraine, Belarus or the Baltic area, so I'm not sure how Russia would be impeded here. None of this is fear-mongering, it is just listening to Putin and what he plans for my country. If or when the time comes to resist those plans I hope we can succeed, with hopefully some help from our friends.
@@rogerc6533 'Make peace'? That sounds good. But, on whose terms? As Mr. Watling wisely said, the goal is a LASTING peace, with Ukraine remaining autonomous. He said that is only possible if Ukraine receives not only security guarantees from the west, but that they are more concrete than the Budapest memorandum that both the U.S. and UK failed to enforce when Russia seized Crimea. We all want peace. But freezing this conflict now amounts to just a delay tactic, allowing both sides to re-arm and prepare for the next round.
@@rogerc6533 Quite naive of you to assume Ukraine and the west would be "making peace" by making a deal in which Imperialist Russia is allowed to keep some or all of the territory it has invaded. The last six times the west tried that strategy to an unprovoked Russian invasion into a nearby country the Russian dictatorship took that as a sign that the west was weak and so felt emboldened to launch another unprovoked imperialist invasion into a nearby country. If the west lets Russia gain territory from its unprovoked imperialist invasion into Ukraine there is no reason to think that Russia won't behave in exactly the same way it behaved the last time the west tried that strategy.
@@rogerc6533how do we make peace? Russia will have to decide it wants peace first. Currently Russia is offering Ukraine demilitarisation and a ceasefire, Then when Russia rebuilds it's military it can simply takeover the demilliterised Ukraine. That makes no sense. Ukraine might as well surrender now and save the bloodshed or fight.
Excellent once again, but very, very sobering. Everyday Ukrainians are dying while our western leaders avoid their responsibilities. Could you do a session just on American and German escalation management and its failure to successfully thwart the Russians? Dr. Gustav Gressel of the European Resilience Initiative Center would be a good candidate to interview!
Very good interview. Dr. Watling strikes me as objective to the extent possible. Interestingly, the interview did not mention direct combat involvement of NATO countries in Ukraine, which I find increasingly likely.
NATO, are you listening? World leaders, are you getting this information in your daily intelligence briefing? Because I feel more in the loop than our political leaders at this point.
Because everyone knows Russia and the nations of the world operate on Fiat currency. And this means they can simply print the money they need to buy weapons. And their people will suffer through inflation. And that is just the way John Maynard Keynes intended.
Assuming Russia will have an advantage until the end of this year and into next completely ignores the impact of a dramatic increase in Ukr AD Patriot and other AD systems coming in along with the F16s which will arrive soon after that. Also the systematic targetting of Rus AD systems taking many offline should be considered as well. What has allowed Rus to advance has been glide bombs which will evaporate if Ukr gets enough AD systems which it looks like they will. Throw in F16s which will allow Ukr to get local air superiority even for brief periods near the front line… we will see the consequences of that.
@@jibberism9910 unproven with what? it has shot down multiple Russian planes and missiles in Ukraine and been used in multiple theaters and wars for decades.
@@stevenwilson5556 so they say yes. And that is not new. But verified? Different story. Now, if you would just take a bit of your time, you will find I am not making this up. But you won't, will you? It's not that hard.
@@jibberism9910 you do not come across as credible, the Patriot has been used for AD for decades in multiple theaters and purchased by dozens of countries for huge sums, and you are a rando on the internet saying that is all a hoax. Sorry but I am going to believe the countries spending hundreds of millions of their own money to buy this system based on its known performance, and not you.
excellent information ..... talking about the military situation he is giving a very clear picture .... taking into account the economic side, the oil refineries are getting bombed by Zelensky so a very big money income for Russia is coming to a stop .... together with the sanctions and the lost of skilled man power because the western engineers left Russia, plus many Russian high end computer and industrial engineering people left the country in 2022, their long term option is not looking good. Russia will slide back into a state like N. Korea.
I have a collection of youtube videos promising "Russia will be defeated". This one is added up to this collection. When all this is over, i will amuse myself by watching these self-servicing and wishfully-thinking "experts" 😂
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name" (How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.) Almighty God said How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏 Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑 In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏 He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑 There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer. IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️ Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑 The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐 Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑 If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️ What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪 If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏 From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ... Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13) 📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RU-vid! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥 "They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
Russia has already peaked as demonstrated by the last two months! NATO now needs to get the logistics right so Ukraine can begin to recover their territory this summer! NATO also needs to negotiate the total withdraw of all Russian forces to the 2014 borders! Russia is unable to increase production due to massive shortages of skilled Labor!
@@GalAxy-u9s Russian forces are advancing slowly here and there... and losing un-told numbers of men and material to do so. At what point will the people of Russia realise that Putin will continue to waste an entire generation of young Russian men - just to satisfy his distorted visions of power.
The chap interviewed didn't take into consideration wether or not the russian economy can afford to keep the war going. The russian economy is sinking fast.
The most pessimistic view I have heard from an expert and if he is erring on the negative side, it would be because he wants Western governments to do more.
Damn. Subscribed while watching and unsubscribed at the end due to rest of video hidden behind a paywall. Not sure what response this dude expects to this devious format but 'don't recommend this channel' was my response
the exercise seems to be, projecting every emerging trend in a rapidly changing war situation, where the losing side work hard to change the game and stop any losing trend. I wonder why Ukraine does not focus harder on taking out key figures of the putin regime in the hope that war priority there lessens. Putin could do the same but must expect a new ukrainian leader to just carry on the resistance - so this should work better for Ukr.
Making predictions for a long run over a war is kind of very presumptuous and also kind of way to persuade the public opinion in to believe in what have been said
Saying that the Kharkiv operation is a success for Russia is enough for me to understand the "expertise" of the guest. There is a huge overestimation of russian reserves available which hugely degrades the quality of the analysis.
An absurdly uniformed discussion! For brevity sake to say NATO has less combat experience than Ukraine indicates no knowledge or consideration of the last 20 years of history. NATO and the USA have had combat operations overseas (can you say, Iraq, Persian Gulf, Afhganistan, Africa) every year since 1991!!!
TLDR; Seems to skip that major part of Ukraine's unfavorable predicament is directly due to West's failure to provide appropriate and adequate weapons/munitions in a timely manner. Also, being forbidden to strikes many key russian targets. Only recently USA allowed strike in limited range to defend Kharkiv, but STILL forbids Ukraine to strike russian airfields with US weapons, which is where most of the devastating glide-bomb attacks on Ukraine originate. West needs to stop dicking around and provide Ukraine with all it needs, when it needs it and allow it to strike as it needs. If so, most of this interview would likely be moot.
Exactly. The most intelligent thing Ukraine did was assemble the manufacturing of drones, Neptune missiles and other home made gear. I hope they can intensify that production.
Ukrainians have prove that they do not target civilians... crazy that they can't attack airfields from which glide bombs are coming and other important military relevant targets within Ukraine. By limiting them the West is responsible for many Ukrainian deaths both civilian and military..
The first point is directly addressed at 47:38 with the same conclusion. Strike limitations are also addressed in the section on the Kharkiv offensive, but in my opinion not adequately so.
Please don't let down Ukraine after all this support already given!🙌🙌🙌After all these sufferings ukranian people really deserve peace and prosperity together with the West. ❤❤❤
This is the kind of conversation we want, with people who have accademic standards and professionalism. Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the free world. We should provide them with all they require !
Damn right! Thank you Ukraine for stopping an extremely deranged man and his mindless drones from making it farther!!! I consider you as fighting for me too and i can't thank you enough for all that you are doing to stop this! I know there is much suffering there caused by this group, There is no doubt in my mind that if you had not stopped them, they would continue until we all spoke russian and chinese or all life ended on earth.
At 20:00 he says "Russia is producing more tanks per year, than the British army is purchasing over the next decade." That comparison doesn't make any sense. First the British army is primarily naval and air rather than land-based. As a proportion of the budget, of course Russians are going to have more invested in tanks. Next, Russia is in a war, and has already militarized their country. The British army is not fighting. So the British are only replacing tanks based on modernization, and maintaining a base level of forces. Russia is replacing losses. So, of course, Russia is building a lot more. Russia is building 10 times the number of tanks as Britain next year. But the implication is that Russia is generating 10 British militaries worth of force. That's probably not what he meant, but that's the comparison that he made. That's comparing apples to aircraft carriers.
It makes perfect sense. The UK can no longer defend itself without American logistical enablement. The navy isn't worth being called one, neither is the air force, and the army cannot field a single division
@@timthetiny7538 I think you're conflating self-defense with expeditionary capabilities. I think you're also ignoring the fact that Britain is part of a military alliance, which includes countries other than the US.
That was top quality analysis from someone who made overt and obvious sense in all regards. Unfortunately the title of the video is somewhere hopeful and not an accurate description of that which was said
Really interesting to hear why it's better to have NATO trainers in Ukraine vs outside of it. I've never heard anyone break down 'why' it's a good thing, glad to hear it
@@mesquick Another NAFO armchair soldier. Go up from the basement and ask some cookies from your mom. BTW you could check the weather on the internet. As I'm not in Moscow, I don't know...
Just in general liberalism is a cancer that makes us weak and causes us to go around making other powerful nations like Russia our enemies in the first place. Populism would make us both stronger yet more peaceful.
A lot of so called realist thinkers advocate for peace in Ukraine by butchering it and leaving it to russia. Realism isnt the solution to our current geopolitical problems. There is not one politcal ideology that would fix those problems. More a combined way of different ideologys might be the answer to those complex problems.
We’re basing our current preparations on the enemy’s worst case scenario. What if they fix their production issues? What if they just import what they need from North Korea?
@@karabenomar”Russia will run out of missiles by the end of 2022” Remember that one? You can file the Russia’s going to run out of gun barrels under the exact same place Jack, which is labeled ‘bullshit’. Anyone who still believes these moronic statements about how rushes is gonna run out of this or that well they need to go and learn how to think because they don’t know how
It can't be getting better for russia if they're losing thirteen hundred soldiers a day Have had to resort to motorcycles golf carts and scooby doo vans
@@terrysky83 “the orcs” are winning and your arrogance and racism only help them. You aren’t about to succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed. You clearly either don’t pay attention to the Frontline movements or you’re just delusional. The Ukrainians have not had an overall net advance since October 1 of last year. They are losing decisively by every single measure. Like Germany in summer 1918 they have already lost but can’t accept it.
That is not what the French found in their analysis. They found the opposite, but not for Ukraine. You people are not only delusional, you seem to be completely information blind.
I can not begin to diagnose the fundamental flaws in this person's analysis. We went from 1,500 tanks per year to 150 in the same sentence. We already know that Russia is pulling from decrepit Soviet stockpiles. These supplies have been cannibalized for decades and can barely perform on the battlefield, with no modern technology, no night vision, and constant breakdowns. How can you promote yourself as an expert and not comprehend the significance of seeing Chinese motorcycles and even SCOOTERS deployed in active measures? In 2-1/2 years, the Russian army has managed to gain about 25km, while Ukraine was receiving almost no support. Russia also managed to take anywhere from 300,000 to half a MILLION casualties. They will conscript more. An almost endless supply of new Russian graves. But equipment is being used up. They are relying on Glide Bombs to cause civilian casualties and break Ukrainian spirit. But soon, Ukraine will have some air defenses. Meanwhile, Russia is running out of money. There are no men to maintain infrastructure. Inflation is going to double. Gas prices have gone up about 35%. In a war of attrition, Russia is racing towards internal collapse. Putin is desperate. With support, Ukraine is going to win this war. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Analysis is crap.
If EU take a damage 2 Belarus or RF that bloger will be cry all night long,becouse theory of geopolitic will be crush on a thousand pieces. And all that the overwhelming majority of such bloggers talk about is a fascist message of information that started in 2012 and turned into a physical manifestation of aggression towards the Russian Federation and Asian countries in 2014. And soon people from Europe or the United States who came to Russia or Asia will begin to feel some discomfort and prejudice, like Muslims in Europe and the United States
Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008
um, the setback in Finland during WW2 was very minor - when the snows melted, the Finns were beaten into the dust and had to cede thousands of square miles of territory
OP: Never under estimate the power of reason, which is only found in meaningful quantities where men are free to think. And never over-estimate nations of Men who are not permitted to think.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name" (How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.) Almighty God said How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏 Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑 In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏 He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑 There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer. IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️ Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑 The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐 Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑 If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️ What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪 If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏 From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ... Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13) 📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RU-vid! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥 "They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
Any peace, without NATO membership for Ukraine, simply will be a chance for Russia to rearm and raise a new army, so that they can win the rest of Ukraine.
Hell of an interview. This is the first interview I’ve seen from anyone at RUSI besides Justin. Just as impressed. I appreciate the media push to get the word out.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name" (How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.) Almighty God said How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏 Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑 In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏 He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑 There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer. IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️ Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑 The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐 Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑 If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️ What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪 If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏 From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ... Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13) 📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RU-vid! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥 "They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
I am only an interested citizen, but I always find hard to understand why ther is still only talk about expanding the Western defence-industrial capacity. Shouldn't that have been put in action 2 years ago?
Early in this, sounds similar to the " Repple Depot" the US had in WW2. piecemeal replacements rather than whole units pulled off and refitted. Though better than American Civil War. Create new units, send them in
not sure what to make of his take on Russia building more tanks than the British will be buying ??? when asked to clarify; 1500 tanks per year of which 150-200 are new tanks i.e. 1300 refurbished refurbishment can't carry on for ever but if I understand his inferences there's only a maximum of 2 years worth of refurbishments left i.e. 2500 old tanks still in storage still to be refurbished They are losing approx 9 per day would love to know the figures for artillery
With all due respect to Dr Watling, his analysis does seem overly pessimistic. The RuAF’s level of mechanised support has clearly been severely degraded. Despite their ability to refurbish decades old equipment stock, Russian military/industrial production cannot hope to keep up with frontline losses, and stock levels are now severely depleted. Russian missile accuracy may have improved but missile stocks are low and with increasing numbers of state of the art missile defence systems in Ukraine’s arsenal, the Ukrainian interception rate of those Russian missiles is likely to increase rapidly. Ukraine’s new air defence systems, along with a strengthen Ukrainian Air Force, will likely reduce the number of glide bombs that Russia is able to use, bombs that have caused the AFU such problems. The qualitative disparity between Ukrainian and Russian equipment is likely to grow. Russia is clearly desperate to avoid recruiting too many personnel from Moscow and St Petersburg, hence the generous financial inducements to the rural poor and overseas personnel. This approach has its limits. It is also questionable how long the political and economic climate in Russia will allow the war to continue.
@@EvoraGT430I think his assessment is correct as it is based on continual reporting and open source intelligence, pretty much available to anybody ready to collate it thoroughly and view it objectively. The evidence of putler avoiding mobilising the middle class ethnic russians is hardly controversial, which is why so many minority groups have been drafted and now even reports of North Korean subjects are fair game. Watling has minimal access to the inner workings of either the kremlin or russian ministry of defence, production output or poohtie's mobilisation strategies going forward so he's hardly better placed to comment accurately than anybody else willing to do their own due diligence and research. The fact that putler still hasn't even achieved his own admitted minimalist goals in Ukraine ( capturing the entirely of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts to their legitimate administrative borders ) let alone any of his overbloated MAXIMALIST objectives ( removing the Zelensky government with a puppet version, capturing Kyiv and cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea, avoiding Ukraine entry into NATO/EU ) tells us clearly that the dictator is now in an ever faster race against time before it all implodes in his face. This must be the longest " special military operation " in human history. 🇺🇦
broseph, i had newspapers telling me they had peaked 4 weeks after the start of the invasion and would run out of steam within months. then it was said they were done when they retreated from kherson. then it was said they exhausted themselves in bakhmut and that they'd lose in 2023. now nobody is even daring to say they will lose in 2024. so let's play the f16 card and see what happens. what other card do you have left up your sleeve after that? i mean we started with javelins and went from nato MBTs to aircraft. come november, things will get interesting one way or another.
What other card do you have left up your sleeve after this? - Scale card of course, as well as permission to hit the territory of the Russian Federation, and there are more modern models of equipment like the F 35, they are not even talking about this yet but they exist.
We've often heard the phrase quantity is a quality of its own. And Russia certainly has the quantity game going. You beat quantity by quality of tactics. Technology and training. Definitely takes longer than we like but that's where we are
Very good interview - best analysis of the state of the conflict by a long shot. But I agree with another commentator - please give some indication of date of interview and thanks again.
I am really amazed by the number of experts who come to opposite conclusion on close to everything related to this war. This applies to battle front, economy, number of fallen soldiers and so on.
Ever heard of Russian maskirovk or there hybrid warfare doctrine? You need to understand that they are at war against west on there own ideology. Wheter west want it or not. So disinformation is in huge scale at the moment. They have hired people also from west to spread there agenda on eany means that can be used. There goal is not to show there advance but spread competition between western countries and especially to people whom education level is not so high that they could forme there own objektive solution on things. This is Russias hybrid warfare doctrine and has been for decades.
@@georgschett801 suprice my comment has been deleted must be because it expoces there tactics and there style to operate in there hybride warfare doctrine. LMAO
@@georgschett801 But you need to rember the russian minded people are infiltrated deep in the western sociaty for decades now. And eaven if some one show them self as "western" military expert you need to always keep in mind that whom is paying there salery to spreading there so called "knowledge". There for you need the deep understanding about the subject. There for there missinformation operations sinks well in to the people whom has no understanding on those subject and can not chalenge that "knowledge" read misinformation they spread.
Honestly we cant know those numbers besides trusting the russian DOD numbers but those are normally more than far fetched from reality. On that note claimed ukrainen aircraft losses of the russian DOD would have destroyed the UAF more than once. Therefore you always have to take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Russia lost to Afghan-1989 collapsed 1991. Russia lost first Chechen war-2000 or so-to a country 1/100 its population. Russia-high production rate-so what-safe bet They out- equipment-ed the Afghans and Chechyns-by factor of perhaps 1/100 or 1/500-HUGE-it made no difference Russia will lose their taste for dying in Ukraine-just as they have before- There is NOTHING good for an average Russian-from this war. But there is plenty good for average Ukrainian-they don't become LOSE TO RUSSIA Poland Lost to Russia-1939-Russia immediately executed 22,000 POWS Kathryn Forest Massacre-Ukrainians fully aware of this-hell their grandfather might have been involved in the massacre(as USSR citizens/soldiers) so Ukrainians fully aware of who they are fighting.
Something important to know, for all who interested in history and/or support Ukraine: Rus' ought not to be confused with modern “Russia”, which derives its name from the Rus' but historically is a completely different state, which almost all its existence was at war with the Rus'. Just like the Holy Roman Empire was actually Germany, “Russia” is actually Muscovy, despite their best attempts to convince everybody otherwise. Its name “Russia" received only in the 18th century, when Peter I simply changed Muscovy’s name into the “All Russian Empire” (Russia originates from Rosia, name used by the Greek Orthodox Clergy in regards to Rus') Under the reign of Cathrine II Muscovites where even punished for continuing to identify as Muscovites, and were forced to call themselves Russian. Lands that Russia (Muscovy) claims were part of the original Rus', but actually weren't, are Novgorod, Suzdal, and Ryazan, since in historical texts of XI-XII centuries they are mentioned as separate entities from Rus'. They can be considered parts of extended Rus', although their culture was distinct from main Rus'. In 1493, Muscovite duke Ivan III appointed himself to be the Great Ruler of All Rus'. No other kings acknowledged that. From that point on Muscovy started to make false claims on Rus' ownership. “Russia” is an offshoot of Ukraine and not the other way round, despite what Soviet and Russian (Muscovite) historians have been trying to say for years. A Slavicised Finnic, then later, Mongolized offshoot. Kyiv was a developed cultured capital when Moscow was just another swamp village. Moreover, in the Italian sources of the 15th century it is likewise mentioned, that Russia is bordered by Poland to the west, Lithuania and Livonia to the north, and *Muscovy* to the east, further proving that Russia historically speaking, is an exonym of Ukraine, that was stolen by Muscovy. Germany used to call itself the Holy Roman Empire, that didn’t mean they became the Romans, and all of a sudden had a right to claim whole of Italy and its history, but yet, that’s exactly what Russia (Muscovy) did in regards to Rus'-Ukraine, which is a horrible injustice!
Russia has only allocated 6% of its GDP for the war . The IMF have just upgraded Russian economy to fourth biggest in the world and the biggest in Europe . With over 3% growth forecast for the rest of the year . All this is at odds with your predictions Didn’t you also forecast that the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 would succeed and that Crimea would be taken back ? Pardon me if I don’t believe your latest prediction
This assessment seems realistic to me. I don't envision any NATO countries giving Ukraine security guarantees in the next 18 months that would have a material impact on Russia's calculus for continuing the war. I don't envision Ukraine's economy suddenly growing on a double-digit percentage basis for the next couple years relative to prewar levels, and this means that Ukraine will be pressed to rebuild damaged infrastructure or massively scale up military equipment. I don't envision the current Ukrainian army having a significant strategic breakthrough on any front lines that they could exploit to recapture any significant bits of territory in 2024-2025. I don't envision the Russian military running into equipment shortages that would cause their military to suddenly collapse before 2026. And therefore, I believe that to win this war, Ukraine needs to not only continue holding lines and inflicting asymmetric attrition, they need to double-down on deep strikes into Russia that could potentially change the game. Ukraine needs to develop new AI drone capabilities in order to gain an advantage. Maybe develop drones that can follow Russian rail lines autonomously and target+destroy Russian fuel trains. Continue to launch deep strikes on Russian airfields and oil refining. Ideally, develop domestic cruise missiles that can destroy Russia's military industrial capacity... Ukraine needs to launch strikes inside Russia that are deeply painful to Russia's military industry and economy in general. Russian oligarchs need to believe that continuing the war is so damaging to their businesses that the war needs to end. People in Russia need to become so frustrated with the economic pain caused by the war that they start to revolt. If Poland and the Baltic countries want to see the war end then they should give Ukraine financial and industrial assistance to inflict crippling strikes on key Russian industries and infrastructure. Maybe the nordic countries would help with this too. I don't think the USA, Germany, France or the UK are serious about taking steps to ensure that Ukraine defeats Russia's military. They will help Ukraine hold the lines, but that's all. Therefore, for Ukraine to truly defeat Russia, central and northern European countries will have to step up. Develop truly autonomous strike drones with capabilities to autonomously target Russia's most critical, expensive and irreplaceable military and industrial assets.
As the guest said, Western deterrence won't be much of a factor until the west rationalizes and rebuilds our supply chains. I forget what number he said, but I'm thinking this is five years out. That's actually pretty fast as these things normally go. Meanwhile, most of the story is Ukrainian human capital.
I listened to this with great interest, but I'm not convinced about the quality of the data regarding Russian hardware, especially given the primary source is very often Russian. In particular, claims are made about Russian tank and armored vehicle production which turn out to be units taken from the Soviet era stockpile and then put through a refurbishment/modernisation process. In particular it seems Russia makes precious few brand new (T90M) tanks. If they were, they'd be showing up at the front. Also Russia is getting ahead with recruitment over losses, but frustratingly (for Putin) slowly. What we really should be paying more attention to is the impending exhaustion of Russia's stockpile of artillery. At the present average loss rate of 1,500 per month, Russia has months left, not years. I'd like to see a reliable expert opinion on whether for instance, Russia can make new barrels in any quantity.
Russia is able to produce about 40 T90M tanks prior to the war and sanctions, this guy thinks they will be producing 200 a year? Or is he suggesting they are going to start building T80s and T72s again? Or somehow massively improve T90M tank production whilst struggling to acquire parts
Putting responsibility for very basic tactical training on the assigned units is a bad idea for many obvious reasons not least of which are lack of standardization, inability to comprehensively monitor the quality of training, and most importantly burdening the units with basic training responsibilities rather than total focus on advanced more sophisticated training that will be the difference between effectiveness and survival or not.
Quite good analysis. 1) the ukranians are under trained vs western starndards BUT the ukranians understand far better this war than the west does. 2) many commanders dont understand the western training vs what they need, and 3) the ukranians train within the unit not in a depot like most western armies that makes their soldiers more specialized BUT also creates different quality of recruits among the army (ie. 47th brigade troopers have nothing in resemblance with 3rd Assault Brigade)
How do you have any idea what the forces the Russians have in Ukraine right now the quality of those forces and even their recruiting numbers that would have to come in some form from the Russian themselves and as we know, the Russians never exaggerate not saying it’s not true, but I would like to know the source of those numbers
This was a VERY IMPORTANT DISCUSSION! Thank you for bringing this out. I have heard these issues brought up so often but it seems that the support is going in circles.
Losing 20,000 convict soldiers is still losing 20,000 soldiers. Soldiers that could have been used elsewhere. Also I think with its meatwave tactics - Russia has amply demonstrated that has little care for the lives of its soldiers, convict or otherwise. The Bhakmut campaign finished off Vagner, which had been Russias most effective unit. Vagner has ceased to be a force in Ukraine since Bhakmut.
Never mind the sociological effects of the approach to conflict the amount of PTSD alcoholism that’s going to prevail within Russia after this we’ve already seen crime rates increased significantly I think murders of doubled or something like that
have you an actuall video of such "meatwave" attack by Russians? since everything in this war is already filmed by the drones, there must be at least something filmed, but i havent seen a single one yet, maybe you have some example of that? please share...or shut the fuck up
Russia does care for the lives of it soldiers which is why it would rather let Fabs, drones and artillery do most of the fighting for it. Sadly capturing cities and strongpoints will inevitably result in heavy losses, America would suffer similar casualties to Russia if it had to fight Ukraine.
As research shows, ptsd does not occur if a person believes that he is fighting for justice. PTSD is a disease of wars such as Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq where soldiers did not understand what they were fighting for.
