I couldn't imagine 3rd year in the war there's still a commander who'd order a tightly packed column to stop in an open view. If that is not he act of treason, then it's incompetence worthy of capital punishment.
We're living in the age of secret service spotting a guy with a range finder 1 hour before he takes a shot at a former president and letting him get away with it.
Russia had a massive amount of soldiers kept in reserve who hadn't seen a lot of combat. The AFU has peeled away from other fronts soldiers and equipment it can't spare, and is in effect just providing those Russian Federation reserves a few weeks of live fire exercises. They'll have losses, but less than 10%, and they'll come away much more experienced. The AFU will come away after getting near 50% casualties, and much demoralized, while losing or abandoning most of their armor and artillery. And they are both much needed elsewhere. Russia should have been better prepared for this, but part of its surprise is that the attack makes no sense. The AFU can succeed elsewhere in sending its armor into Russia, and that will be just as wasteful of them.
Thats my analysis too. If all people care about is territory captured I could use utter stupidity to surprise most people in a game of Risk or whatever but it will eventually lead to a loss.
@@SlackerBabel Maybe that's the plan, force Russia to be better prepared along its borders with regular troops and armoured reserves rather than conscripts.
@@SlackerBabel your analysis makes sense, however conflict is far more nuanced then you think. Keep in mind their are hundreds of factors your not taking into account because well… you haven’t trained nor actually needed to use the skills to fight a conflict on a macro scale. I have a little bit of experience, mostly in fires and namely in training (albeit it’s different generally force on force training can still give you a pretty decent idea what to do in conflict on a macro scale) one thing I’ve consistently noticed is that people’s analysis of fires is extremely lacking, even these so call RU-vid experts are lacking a because well they’ve never actually worked with artillery nor utilized it to facilitate an attack, their understanding of conflict is strictly based on a historical or literature based knowledge rather than a first hand knowledge from experience
@@Irishtradchannel Thats not true but even if it was it wouldn't matter. The side whos army gets defeated loses. It can take time if the enemy is unrelenting and ideologically motivated to die. This is why USA has less of Afghanistan than it had 20 years ago
@@ryanwalters6184 Not even close just this week Russia got yet another Iskander strike on 40+ ukrainian vehicles on train. Ukes are losing tons of equipment. It's possible to make gains when you throw everything at once but its temporary eventually you run out
This operation male High pressure on Russian force now they have tò focus defense all Frontline so they cant use all this unit for invasione of ukraine
@@bw6524 did they say that they will invade Russia? What's the purpose of this invasion? I guess it was easier for them to gain some russian territory than their own or to defend their territory. Also I believe that's a waste. Let's wait and see.
Note: That Ukrainian RECONNAISANCE TROOPS are geolocated at some village in Kursk, and there's a video of a lone vehicle, doesn't mean the Ukrainians have taken it. They will as usual claim that they are holding territory when they're not. They have in the past even dropped a small team with a flag on an island or on the other side of a river to hold up the flag for a drone pic, then leave. Zelensky, like his brethren in Tel Aviv, is a consummate liar.
I think it will be hard for them to hold their Kursk positions because the don't have control over any large settlements. Just small villages and a lot of empty land.
Also the land they captured almost 400 square kilometers, and their units got heavy casualities when entered. I will not suprise if one soldier have to hold in average about dozen of square kilometers. Which overstretch their position and let entire force be mochi-ed.
Нет это не ошибка, а некомпетентность конкретных офицеров (не хочется даже думать что это может быть прямое предательство), за которое они должны понести наказание согласно закону РФ. 😡
The Russians have several problems. 1. They have way fewer forces than was reported. 2. Their tactical leadership is extremely lacking especially in the battalion and company levels. 3. Their intelligence capabilities are terrible. They have no idea where the Ukrainians are building up. The Ukes are using NATO satellites to pin point Russian forces and positions. 4. The Russians have no more reserves. They are spent, and their forces are stretched out. That's why they are mobilizing. 5. Lastly, They have become too cautious. Stalin would have been in Lviv by now. Sure they would have lost hundreds of thousands but they would have won none the less.
They were losing badly for months, this was purely pr stunt to gain some support in the West and it was succesful in that matter, but in military sense its pointless. But i think this will push Russia to go into second gear in their offensive efforts.
nafo bots have been out in full force with maximum shilling the past week, they will go quiet when something happens in Israel or when Ukraine's forces get pushed back
If I understood the map correctly, the Ukrainians are so used to Russian cauldrons that they went to be surrounded by themselves. For what expected gains ?
It's a PR stunt to gather support from western taxpayers for more funds to Ukraine. See all the western media raving about how Ukraine is successfully taking over Russia.
Ukraine captured 350+ Sqkm land with low casualities while inflicting heacy casualities on Russia. Now Russia will lose 10 more soldiers trying to recapture these areas how is that desperation or are you a paid troll?
In Kursk Oblast, the introduction of Russian army reserves halted the Ukrainian advance. Ukrainian forces were pushed back from crucial routes leading to Rylsk, Lgov, and Kurchatov. Attempts by Ukrainian troops to break through from Malaya Loknya to Kromskie Byki and to raid near Korenevo were also repelled. In Sudzha, despite their initial numerical advantage, Ukrainian forces failed to fully take control of the town. Russian forces in the eastern part managed to hold out until reinforcements arrived. As of today, Ukrainian forces have lost the initiative and are now hastily digging in to slow down the advancing Russian troops. The fighting in the region has shifted from a highly maneuverable phase to a more positional one.
Ukrainian forces attempted an amphibious landing in what has been compared to a "Bay of Pigs" scenario, likely hoping to exploit the focus on Kursk Oblast. In the early hours of August 6, Ukraine attempted to land troops on 12 boats at the Tendrovskaya Spit. Three of the boats were sunk along with their crews, and the rest retreated. Last night, Ukrainian forces tried again, sending two boats with 12 special forces personnel to the Kinburn Spit. This landing attempt was completely destroyed
Only Russian sources so far, they are often wrong so i would just wait. Russians also reporting some of their columns getting destroyed, they arent at all organised in the region. Your reality is what the Kremlin hopes to achieve probably
Whoa!! DPA map of the salient area is twice as big as this one. This one makes it appear as if AFU's entire invasion force is completely surrounded....."
Because a lot of other mappers are claiming any geo locations as captured. So that means if 1-2 guys who dismounted 3 days ago walked 20 miles and took a video it now becomes "captured. This is the downside of the modern standard of geolocation being the end all of proof. I talked to him about this and I know he is considering it but its hard to change because Russian didn't really do this type of info warfare just like in the Kupiyansk direction some Russian DRG units managed to get all the way to Oskil river technically they could've made a tiktok video just a few guys and mappers would probably color it red 10km behind the front. But Ukraine is changing the information warfare game Budonov is special forces after all this is all part of hybrid warfare and media gains are part of that
@@GeldUndKokaine-kc1hp they could still drive but not all close up and stopping in the same place. I was watching video yesterday of reinforcements heading to the area and my first thought was that it was very risky knowing that the Ukrainians had been using artillery all around the area.
This reminds me of desperate moves by other nations who were losing wars - For example, Germany at the Battle of the Bulge, or the Confederacy during the US Civil War when Hood turned away from Sherman and invaded Tennessee only to be destroyed at Franklin and Nashville. Sadly, the longer the Ukranians drag this out, the worse will be their loss in the end. Nice try but in the end it will likely cost them more than it was worth and they are obviously having to strip other positions of desperately needed men and supplies to carry it out.
To the surprise of nobody. But Zelensky knows the PR value of a TikTok raid. There’s still normies that think AFU is winning in Krynky, Robotyne, Belgorod, etc
You can see a cauldron forming in the south of the area captured pinning the Ukrainians and NATO forces, who this time may not be allowed to escape back over the border. .
OMG.... I figured that once RU could respond enough to "fix" the Ukrainians in place, no matter how large a salient they created, then RU air power could come in and it would be ggwp for AFU. There are no prepared defenses inside Russia; you can't build a bunker or dugout in one day....AFU would be defenseless..."
Ukraine has a large border with Russia and can attack from any point on the Russian border. They spending resources on a Russian town instead of stopping the Russian advance.
They need to show NATO some results, even if these results ain't doing jackshit to protect thier territory. They will use destroyed russian truck collumn as an excuse to beg for more armored vehicles and F-16 jets.
@@retrictumrectus1010 “lack of resources” the whole world is giving the most advanced weapons worth billions of dollars and they have the worlds top advisors what else do they need
Ukraine have right to defend itself but Russia also have same right in this case of Ukranian in Russia soil. Look some example in past wars... In Croatia indepencence war against Serbia, why was Croatia never do attack operations on Serbia soil? Because in that case Croatia was also will be agressor. Likewise, Croatia did not have a surplus of soldiers and military equipment to be wasted, like Ukraine, so all military forces had to be directed exclusively to the defense of its territory and the strengthening of forces within its borders, and not to be scattered around on military operations that divert the army from essential into non-essential positions and thereby loses military power where it is needed for defense. On the Ukrainian example, those few thousand elite soldiers with advanced military equipment who invaded the Kursk region would contribute more to the defense of Pokrovsk than to carry out such military actions, which have no sense, because the Russians will certainly not negotiate for peace until they regain their territory, and the Ukrainians regardless they can only count on unnecessary losses of the army that would be much more useful in another area. This Ukraine offensive on Kursk region is pure PR stunt or just simple stupidity.
@@ironmonkey1512 Hit and run is a tactic for cowards, It´s the equivalent of a group of stray dogs , annoying a big animal such as a Lion. You see such encounters a lot in the wild, they usually bite and immediately pull back.
Weeb thanks for all your hard work man , been following your RU-vid channel since the beginning and you are one of the few channels that bring unbiased info. Keep up the vids man !
They gambled on a bargain chip… and again they will see that this bet was wrongly placed… wondering if there will be anything called Ukraine will be left within a few years…
People have compared this to the Battle of the Bulge but it seems to match up more with the Soviet attack near Kharkov in 1942 that ran into the German forces preparing for Operation Blau. Looked good early and then the Soviets got cut to pieces. The question now is whether Russia will attempt to encircle the forces by attacking the base of the salient or just push them back and then continue their attack into Sumy/Ukraine.
Encircle them with what? Barely trained conscripts that keep surrendering? First they need to stop them and that'll take some actual units being moved to the area.
Please note that it is false to say that Ukraine sent a lot of forces, when from Russian sources who were in the countries under attack, they heard the soldiers speaking French, those who made this offensive, were mixed groups, mostly formed by allied soldiers. Ukraine has long been short of personnel, since in the past months, it has never managed to oppose the capture of Vovchansk
Who knows, Russian army is pretty slow and not organised at all. Wagner almost took Moscow, Russia cant fight if they dont outnumber their eneymy by a lot
@@Dimension37 The keyboard strategists write down their own phantasies above after three years old SMO, my friend. Never understand the nature of atrition war's realities; Russia doesn't need to take more land in the long-run (say that in the 100 years' period); she needs to have empty fields with tiny population in the surrounding countries; she succeded in the strategic demographics level... Look at the all countries in the surrounding areas of the Russian Federation; they all lost their economic development perspectives according to the growing immigrant population crises, energy-linked crises, declining population in native peoples; economic recession like in Japan or hyper-inflation like in Turkey... Russia thinks with long-term trends, others thinks with short-term trends... Just look at Turkey's economic position (a NATO country since 1952); native population decline (1.52 population growth rate per woman); the huge immigrant crises (15 million ppl); the sticky hyper-inflation; a total decline in all areas of life... What was the starting point? The meddling to the Syrian politics in behalf of the West's interests; and facing with the Russia in Syria... The history repeats itself in Ukraine...
@@Sedona-cl6eg You need to tell your imaginary friend to tell you the truth! Is it really trlling you Ukraine lost over a million imaginary soldiers or is it telling you Ukrainians are reserected to fight again?
I can't find a tactical reason for doing that, with 1.000+ men and some dozents of 40+ years old armoured vehicles and tanks. What and who stands behind?
The age of vehicles is completely irrelevant i don't know why people keep talking like this. If it moves and carries men its 100% equal to any other modern vehicle because no modern vehicle sustains drone or ATGM hits either.
@@off6848I guess because western folks always use the age of RU equipment to determine its efficacy. For example, modernized t72 is piece of old junk, 50 years old. While at the same time, Abrams of similar age is top tier tank.
Prigozhin was right in his criticism of Russian high command .. If Russia wins it will be despite of them , not because of them . Court martials are in order , commanders responsible need to answer for this debacle . .
Not really this could happen to any large nation. They both have around the same amount of men under 1 million but Russia has to man a bigger territory, this means theres ALWAYS a gap to be exploited. But will it change the war? Thats the only thing that matters.
@@off6848it can delay the war, and give ukraine a better position during negotiations. I think this is a long term strategy. Not even Zelensky is dumb enough to capture this territory and not hold it
@@euphoriaggaminghd Why would Russia negotiate before they kick them out? This is the part that makes no sense when people talk about it. They kicked them out of Krynky they can do it here even if it holds for months Russia doesn't have to negotiate until its resolved.
@@off6848 but that's the point, russia will take a very long time to regain the territory. That's the point of negotiations. Russia took a year to capture a few villages like Robotyne, 500sqkm is gonna be very difficult and will be a serious headache for Putin. Remember Ukraine has the PR and the west on its side. All Russia has is its military performance
Todos sabemos cual fue la ultima gran ofensiva de la alemania nazi y en que ciudad rusa se libro y todos sabemos hasta donde llegaron los sovieticos luego de ganar esa batalla Ahora no sera Berlin, si no Kiev
You know what bothers me about this war. People telling me how great Russia is the bear. It hasn't taken Ukraine its been over two years how many more will it take. Ukraine saying there doing great. Ukraine is not doing great they need help and if you think other wise your wrong. This is not a war that need to happened is why i dont like it.
Why does Ukraine "need help" to become a forward operating base for the US and UK to put missiles in Mariupol and warships in the Sea of Azov??? WHY IS THAT SO IMPORTANT TO NATO??"
@@trevorsutherland5263 (I know it was rhetorical, but) in the end, it's always world domination. *sigh* I am resigned to the fact that there will always be a certain % of people who crave total domination, and it the job of the rest of us to keep them out of politics. So far, we have failed
When you think about it, Kursk offensive break the argument that Ukraine is holding its sovereignty. Because if they did, they wont touch any territory that wasn't originally theirs, no matter how undefended that land is. That's the moral part. And we have past that point. Without moral ground, all that remain is might make right. And Ukraine aren't spending their (borrowed) might wisely.
This is Ukraine's Ardennes offensive. It reeks of desperation and it is a big gamble. We all know how the Ardennes offensive turned out for the Germans. These Zelensky fanbois celebrating, counting their eggs before they hatch. The Germans too were doing that in 1944.
6:50 We will not see any more Ukrainian breakthroughs *here*. There are other nearby points where Ukraine may cross the border. I hope Russia is ready to deal with such a surprise this time
