I'm so dissapiointed in America. All we have to do is apply like 20% more pressure to never have to worry about the Russian state ever again and we won't do it. It's criminally negligent
@@Kyle-sr6jm Hate to break it to you but a "stable Russia" doesn't exist. It certainly didn't invade Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022 because it was "too stable"
Issue we have is if Russia fully collapses, who gets their nukes. We definitely want them weaker and out of Ukraine, but there's a fear of it having a full collapse.
@@glintongordon6811 you don’t think Mongolia is important to China? If Russia did anything to Mongolia the relationship between China and Russia would return to how it was in the 70s.
During the Soviet collapse, Radio Moscow was broadcasting on Shortwave radio that all was well in the USSR. Right up until the day before the collapse. 📉🚽🌀
@@user-je3sk8cj6g Untrue. The United States has an Embassy in UllaanBataar. They could hand him over at the gate, and then what would China or Russia do when we renditioned him back to the Hague? Start a war with the United States? Nope.
@@user-je3sk8cj6g We can understand the difficulty of their positions, but if there is no punishment for not following on the treaty then the treaty is useless. The Mongolia should just withdraw officially, or to be kicked out if it's possible.
So. . . when do you think the ICC is going to open up a case against George W Bush and Blair for the Invasion of Iraq based on WMD lies? How many months have they can't issue a warrant against Netanyahu in spite of all the evidence of Genocide? The issue with many of the Western apologists is that they fail to recognize their own hypocrisy. That is why we are in the situation we are in today, and those treaties aren't worth the paper they are printed on if the west insists on "do as we say, but not as we do" approach to international relations.
i mean lets say they actually do arrest him… how are they supposed to transport him through china or russia? it just wouldn’t make any sense for them to arrest him tbf.
Putins arrest warrants are not "toothless" but actually bite quite hard. Putin used to love to travel all over the world and ever since the warrant - he has to think hard where he can step foot and as a result, his usual travel plans are cut by a huge amount
Theirs places that are nice that he and his ppl can travel. They have all the money in the world they don’t care about no warrants and sanctions they can still do whatever they want. Theirs nice warm places that they can travel to in the winter and it’s beautiful in Russia in the summer they will be perfectly fine
The arrest warrant worked in South Africa. I forget when, but Putti was going to visit South Africa, and there were steps taken in the direction of getting a court order requiring his arrest by opposition politicians (the government is pro-Putin, but it looks like at long last they're on their way out, having failed to achieve a majority in the last elections - so the long-suffering people have finally stopped forgiving them for the harm they've done the country). He eventually bailed out of his planned visit.
Wouldn't it be wild if Mongolia honored the Rome Treaty? Like secretly China has decided Putin needs to go, so they lure him to Mongolia ensuring he travels there, just to be seized? Now I don't expect this to be the case - but is it too far from being possible?
It would be really funny if Mongolia supplied a Russian-speaking security detail made up of Ukrainian Special Forces. They could have him over the border and on the way to The Hague on his first night in Mongolia.
It'd be incredible but I think China is too dependent geopolitically on Russia. But you never know. They could also view Russia as an obstruction to their ideas in central Asia. Mongolia needs some help in general.
Alot of countries would happily arrest the man if they were offered a bounty and he were willing to go there, but the man's got like a dozen body doubles so you'd be arresting alot of Putins before you ever find the real one.
Local authorities in Mongolia. A coalition of countries with a strong stance against Putin might put pressure on Mongolia to act. However, this would involve complex negotiations.
China is very conscious of the dangers of becoming dependent on Russia. Being dependent on on any single supplier is bad, but Russia has demonstrated a particular eagerness to use energy as a tool of blackmail.
India also found out how Russia operates with their military contract. They ordered an air carrier for lik 1.3B dollars and they ended up paying 5B for a boat that arrived 7+ years late. And it shit anyway.
@@VillenmerthAzul when US was helping your arch enemy Pakistan with advanced weapons to invade the north territory Russia helped save India... Many times with lots of weapons.
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Regarding Mongolia: There is a quite simple Problem: Mongolia is surrounded by Russia and China. Not many options to deport Putin even if they would arrest him.
@@herbtapp3031 Mongolia is a Russian ally with an extremely low male population. Both their army and economy are fully dependent on Russia. There is even a contingent Russian force in their soil to defend against any Chinese attack. a 100,000 strong force is enough to take it. In addition to 300k Soldiers stationed in Syberia, Russia has 5 million conscripts and reservists.
Exactly. Putin wont leave his bunker to go anywhere if there's even a slight chance he'll get taken into international custody. He's a complete coward, just like all dictators.
Mongolia's already suffering massively in the Russian sphere of influence. Like, Russia can't really do much to make it worse short of invading....oh wait, nvm
Would be entertaining to watch the Russians walk back on assertions that there is no body double … and then … so which Putin back in Russia actually the real one ?
Your average Russians are historically used to ruin.....financial, political and social, so it's not such a big deal for them. Whether or not the 80 or so remaining oligarchs are willing to give up their lifestyles is another question....
You might well see ruin as normal (which it isn’t) and accept it as part of life, but if you can clearly pin it on someone or some identifiable group, you will still feel resentment towards them and want to push back, if possible. I don’t think even the Russians just shrug off economic and political mismanagement of that scale.
oligarchs dont have as much power as people think. It is a police state, so fsb, mod, kremlin, omon, military and now also pmc's have power. Oligarchs have been taking flights out their windows lately...
You can bet they want it back, too. I was just thinking that China has or very nearly has Russia right where they'd want to demand all of Manchuko back, most ricky tick.
Yep, I have felt that is China's plan all along. Once Russia has exhausted all it's men and equipment, China will take Manchuria and probably drive all the way to the Siberian Arctic. Russia will have no way to stop them.
China is doing this on purpose China would like to see a post Soviet style breakup of Russia. China makes no secret of the fact that China has territorial clams in the eastern part of Russia and a fall of the Russian federation would open that door for China to retake what they believe is theirs
@waynesworld,Well what what goes around comes around,China has been the main cause of high unemployment due to closures of big businesses in my country,SA,not that I fully blame them but rather our not so clever government.
@@pauldreze3414 That's true but the bigger problem is it's 1 party system, it's Authoritarian Communism, it's unchecked power and Orwellian national culture, where lies are facts and facts are lies.
Not likely since Mongolia sees the West as an unreliable partner - they are so far away. And Mongolia probably is the only country on Russia's borders which is fully sympathetic to them. They after all see the Russians as liberators and a valuable foil against China.
Sanctions? How? All goods have to be tranferred through either Russia or China. It's landlocked between them. I think that Mongolia is more worried about being sanctioned by China and Russia if they arrest Putin. That would be devastating for their economy.
I lived and worked in Mongolia for 10 years. I met my wife there. Believe me, money talks in Mongolia. Putin will fly in and out Scot free and a lot of Mongolians will be more wealthy for looking the other way. Our family is following this very closely but none of us are holding their breath.
Honestly? Likely nothing since they're surrounded on all sides by Russia or China with no sea access and limited capability to fly him out of the country unless they want to make a break for South Korea and hope SK and Japan are willing to ward off Chinese and Russian attempts at interception...aka it ain't happening and arresting him just runs the risk of giving Russia a reason to *ahem* 'recollect' Mongolia so they'll sit and wait for someone with the capabilities to arrest him to do so.
@@thegreatestdane8978 I mean long-term. They prove they are not to be trusted in this instance so anyone doing anything with Mongolia says "well, f you then" if they need any future help.
Don’t forget that Russia makes billions from LNG and food exports to Europe and Britain rakes in billions from refining Russian oil redirected from India.
I'm not an economist or anything of the like. That being said, I believe that China's economic problems are exponentially worse than Russia's. The loss of manufacturing, shipping, and the real estate Armageddon, China has been in an economic deathspiral for over a year. The CCP has done a good job of deflecting from it.
Make that "since 2020". Nothing but a stream of bad news since. Botching the deflation of the real estate bubble, botching their covid response, excessive youth unemployment, a fertility rate close to 1 (and quite possibly the lowest in the world in actual numbers) etc. etc.. And the CCP is far more concerned with looking good than actually fixing anything.
No, they have no idea. If they knew they would do something about it. Weak people don't have shame. Easy to pretend you're "not political" and walk off.
If Russia falls apart, who will be in control of their Nuclear arsenal? I think it’s in our best interest to keep Putin in charge, but under control rather than having lunatics fighting over their nukes.
No country is so desperate and with excess disposable defense budget as to buy anything made in russia, after the perpetual failures of all newly produced armour, air defense, weapons systems displayed all over the internet since Feb 2022
Russian Foreign Military Sales have reduced by two thirds as countries saw the devastating failure of Russian military equipment of all types (from tanks to Attack Helicopters) in Ukraine. The threat of sanctions also played a part, as did the non existent delivery dates as Russia diverted all Foreign Military Sales to its war in Ukraine and put the balance of the orders on indefinite hold.
China's economy slows down which puts Russia ina very dangerous position. Russian currency is not bind with Yuan which means if Yuan drops its value, then Ruble will drop its value too.
China is milking Russia because Putin has made stupid decisions and doesn't have many alternatives, unlike Mainland Europe previously on Energy China will not make the mistake of being dependent on Russia, however the CCP has made catastrophic errors of its own on the Chinese economy as Xi is an ideologist and not an economist, both economies will suffer badly in the next decade!?!
The fact Putin will walk free after his visit goes to show how ineffective the international court system is. There is no enforcement for breaking laws or in this case warrants issued. Mongolia has no reason to comply besides a paper good faith agreement. There’s no consequences for letting Putin walk.
China needs to import more oil from Canada. With the new pipeline it can get over 400,000 barrels a day from Canada at the cheap Western Canadian Select price which is usually $15 cheaper than WTI.
Russia handing war criminal Putin over to the Hague would definitely be a first step, along with removing troops from Ukraine, and reparations to Ukraine to their next, hopefully more quiet, chapter.
Thank you for your clear and informative material and gratuitous pet clips, Joe. The two Poohtins struggling economically at the same time? Beautiful symmetry.
I figured something out. The reason China is cutting their oil imports from Russia in July is because they are having trouble making payments to Russia due to the secondary sanctions. At the same time, China is increasing oil imports from other countries such as Malaysia. This proves the sanctions are working and are negatively impacting Russia's oil revenue.
What a great and glorious irony it would be if the Mongolians were to solemnly promise, before Putin's visit, not to arrest him; then renege on the promise, arrest him and hand him over to the Hague. Unlikely, I agree, but we can dream ....
You're focusing on a very real point in economics; the power of a country and its currency is a reflection of its leadership.When the country is trustworthy, and focused on the future and growth, the investments in that economy are wide, varied, and show lots of promise and potential; if you look at China, the worry there is that people don't want to work for the country anymore because the altruism doesn't pay off, and it's reflected on the generations of poverty that the countryside has had to endure.
Mongolia won't do anything, and thus should be kicked out of the ICC treaty, and any countries with extradition treaties with Mongolia should undo them. I'd even say it's grounds for extending sanctions.
Disagree with the warrant having no teeth, or has been ignored. You have the explanation to both. Putin hasn't been travelling to any of these countries.
is easy answer, other country or people's buying from china is they choice 😂 is up to them if want buy or not, no one forced them or what's buddy also that's mean business can end up trade to trade business to like oil chip or anything. not like usa always want sanctions other country then forced people not to buy 😂 so ya I'm not surprised if they gdp can end up high
Russia bids farewell to billions of rupees for oil stuck in India 😀😀 The year-long negotiations with India on the fate of billions of rupees for Russian oil stuck in the country have ended in Fiasco for the Kremlin.
If China's direct purchases from Russia are down due to secondary sanctions, what amount of oil received from the Middle East and Southeast Asia is 'repackaged' Russian crude? It's an expensive work-around that is absorbed by China (I doubt it) or addition discounts in the Russian export price per barrel that pays for the repackaging (to obscure its origin) or more likely a stop and transfer in the open seas. With transponders turned off, tankers don't just disappear from satellite monitoring.
The question is whether the oil decline is from the drone strikes on Russian oil capacity or Chinese EV growth, whereas EV'S and plugin EV'S hit 50 percent in July in the Chinese market, which will call a decrease in oil imports.
via The Guardian: If China wants Taiwan it should also reclaim land from Russia, says president Lai Ching-te highlights Beijing’s contrasting approach to territorial loss during ‘century of humiliation’ Mon 2 Sep 2024
But China wants land back from Russia - together, spaces bigger than Europe! They just don't pursue this target as hard and aggressively than their demands towards Taiwan... By the way, in the more or less official history interpretation of the Chinese Mongolia is little more than a Chinese province...
@@uweinhamburg I assume he was speaking of Vladivostock and Outer Manchuria. China might want Inner Mongolia fully back in the fold. I'm sure China would like to own Lake Baikal.
Amazing content as always Joe! I'd nearly reached the end and gone to a different video when I remembered I had to come back and see something to put a smile on my face! Hope you have an awesome day!
Great episode as usual Joe! Thanks for accurately reporting on world economics and always using verifiable facts that are either visually or audibly foot-noted in your videos... Here in the self-absorbed USA I would have to subscribe to multiple foreign sources for info, and I still might not get the understanding a single one of your videos confers. Also your endings are the best and DO leave me smiling 😊!
@@martinogold Hmm, that’s weird; The title of the video seems to have mysteriously changed. 🤔 @b1r2y3n and I were referring to the original title which was: ‘Putin To Be Arrested Tomorrow’ - which we both obviously thought sounded a little, shall we say, optimistic & possibly exaggerated. Hopefully now you can understand why the word ‘clickbait’ immediately came to both of our minds, Martin. Not to worry, I’m sure it was just some kind of mistake.
You know what might be interesting? To do a comparison video between Russias economy today and the USSRs economy in 1990… I hear (but haven’t checked) that their gdp was growing and people said they were the second best economy on the planet…
The debt situation in China puzzles me greatly. The big Chinese banks are state owned. I don’t see any reason why the Chinese government can’t just allow them to write off their bad debts, then re-capitalize them. As long as China is in a deflation mode, this should be no problem.
