Section 1 - Andrew Beyer 

that track is all about trainers

U NEED THREE THINGS TO PREDICT WINNERS, THE SPEED OF THE HORSE, THE CLASS, WHETHER GOING UP OR DOWN , AND THE CONDITION OF THE TRACK. HE IS USING TWO OF THE THREE, BUT LEAVING OUT VARIANCE, U REALLY NEED THE LAST FIVE RACE SPEEDS OF EACH HORSE IN A RACE AND THEN DO AN ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (SAME FOR DOG RACES) AS A HIGH SPEED AT LOW VARIANCE MAY LOSE TO A SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEED WITH A HIGHER VARIANCE, AS THE VARIANCES CAN OVERLAP. IF A HORSE IS GOING UP IN CLASS S/HE WILL KEEP GOING UP TIL S/HE GETS TO AAA, AT WHICH TIME S/HE IS RUNNING WITH ALL WINNERS, AND ODDS ARE, S/HE WILL LOSE SO GO DOWN IN CLASS. (WHERE DO U GO FROM THE TOP BUT DOWN) AS FOR FAST SLOW OR MUDDY TRACKS, HE IS TAKING THAT INTO CONSIDERATION IN HIS NUMBERS. SO IF U USE HIS NUMBERS WITH THE SIX BASIC HANDICAPPING TOOLS (FIRST OF WHICH IS FORM, AS IF THE HORSE IS NOT IN TOP FORM U CAN FORGET EVERYTHING ELSE) AND THEN LOOK AT THE STABLE, JOCKEY, STABLES WITH A LOT OF WINNERS, JOCKEYS WHO WIN A LOT OF RACES DONT LIKE TO RIDE LOSERS, SO THEY TEND TO PICK WINNING HORSES, IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT, USUALLY THE HORSE WILL RUN AWAY WITH THE RACE BUT IF U CAN PICK THE TOP TWO AND SEE A POSSIBLE PERFECTA, BET IT. IT IS VERY HARD TO PICK THREE WINNERS, BUT U GET THE DRF AND PICK UR TOP FIVE HORSES THEN GO TO THE BEYER'S NUMBERS AND RANK THEM FIRST SECOND THIRD WITH JMP SOFTWARE, U HAVE DIAMONDS ON AN AVERAGE SPEED LINE, WITH THE WINNERS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AND THE LOSERS LOWER THAN AVERAGE THE WINNERS JUMP OUT AT U AND U CAN SEE THE DISTANCES BETWEEN DIAMONDS IF THERE IS GONNA BE A WINNER, S/H WILL BE AT THE PEAK OF HOWEVER SHALLOW OR STEEP THE MOUNTAIN OF DIAMONDS IS AND IF U KEEP STATITISTICS ON HORSES AND UPDATE THEM DAILY U ALSO NOTE MORNING TRAINING RUNS /SPEEDS ETC U ARE GOING TO WIN A LOT OF BETS THIS WAY WHAT I DONT DO IS LOOK TO SEE WHAT THE ODDS ARE AT THE TIME OF THE RACE IF A MILLION PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON CHARLIE HORSE TO WIN AND SO HIS ODDS ARE ONE TO ONE AND I HAVE THE HORSE'S NUMBERS IT DOESNT MATTER WHAT A MILLION JOE BLOWS THINK I TRUST THE HORSES TO PERFORM OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL HOWEVER A FAST HORSE ON A SLOW OR MUDDY TRACK IS NOT THE SAME AS A FAST HORSE ON A DRY TRACK SO I LIKE TO USE STATS ON DRY TRACKS AND LEAVE OUT THE WET OR SLOW TRACKS THIS IS WHERE I THINK BEYER'S IS WASTING TIME AS HE IS NOT LOOKING AT CLASS IF A HORSE HAS GONE FROM CLASS C TO B TO A, HE IS GOING UP IN CLASS AND THE NEXT RACE HE SHOULD HIT AAA IF HE IS RACING A HORSE THAT WAS ALREADY AAA, OR HAS GONE FROM AAA, TO B, TO C, HIS NEXT RACE HE IS GOING DOWN TO D, THAT IS JUST HIS TREND, DOWNWARD AND IF SPEEDS ARE CLOSE AND VARIANCES OVERLAP, THE SLOWER HORSE CAN BREAK THROUGH AND PASS THE FASTER HORSE (GOING DOWN) WORKS THE SAME IN A DOG RACE AND U CAN SEE THIS IN THE NUMBERS IF U JUST BET HORSE ONE AND HORSE TWO R GONNA FINISH ONE AHEAD OF THE OTHER BUT U DONT SAY WHICH ORDER U LOSE MONEY WHEN U COULD HAVE BET WHICH HORSE WILL COME IN FIRST AND WHICH WILL COME IN SECOND AS THE HORSE MOVING UP IN CLASS HAS JUST BEAT, AND JUST MOVED UP IN CLASS SO BEYER'S IS LEAVING CLASS OUT OF HIS NUMBER WHICH IS WHY U NEED HIS NUMBER AND THE RACING FORMS NUMBERS AND U NEED TO DO THE CALCULATIONS OR HAVE A SPREADSHEET OR STATS PACKAGE (JMP IS THE SAS VERSION USED IN COLLEGE STAT LABS FOR UNDERGRADS AND WORKS FOR A HUGE AMOUNT OF DATA AND IS EASY TO USE, ONCE U LEARN HOW TO ENTER THE DATA U JUST CLICK ON ANOVA AND U GET THE GRAPHS U CAN ALSO USE A STAT CALCULATOR BUT U REALLY NEED A LAPTOP AND JMP. SINCE LAPTOPS WERE NOT AROUND WHEN ANDY BEYER'S STARTED OUT U CAN SEE HE IS AT A DISADVANTAGE BUT THERE IS ANOTHER BOOK WHICH SAYS U NEED THE SPEED OF THE HORSE, THE CLASS AND THE CONDITION OF THE TRACK TO PICK WINNERS AND ONE NUMBER, HIS NUMBER, IS NOT ENOUGH AN ESTIMATE MEANS NOTHING WITHOUT A RANGE A BEYER'S NUMBER NEEDS A RANGE ADDED LIKE A HUNDRED PLUS OR MINUS TWO OR A HUNDRED AND TWENTY PLUS OR MINUS THREE WHERE THE TWO OR THREE GIVES U AN IDEA OF THE RANGE WHAT HORSE RUNS EXACTLY THE SAME SPEED EVERY RACE ?? BTW, PAST IS PROLOGUE, BUT NOT THE FUTURE, U DONT KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE RACE IS RUN BUT BTW, SPORTS HANDICAPPERS FOR FOOTBALL GAMES IN VEGAS HAVE PHDS IN STATISTICS AND BELIEVE ME, WHEN THEY CALCULATE POINT SPREADS THEY ARE TAKING A LOT OF THINGS INTO ACCOUNT PLAYER BY PLAYER TEAM BY TEAM INCLUDING THE TEAMS UR TEAM PLAYS AND THE TEAMS THOSE TEAMS PLAY AND THEY WEIGHT THE ODDS TO ADD UP TO ONE. BUT USE THREE FRACTIONS NOT TWO SO IT IS NOT A HALF AND A HALF BUT THAT IS A DIFFERENT TOPIC

Randy Bailin How much money does the government earn in a typical day of racing? Answer: Nothing! The government doesn't earn anything; it just takes it. That's why it's called "the take". That's what makes it virtually impossible to beat.

Nothing is perfect, and tracks having just a couple route races per day made it a challenge to accurately gauge the two-turn variant, from day to day. Nevertheless, Beyer and his small circle of speed ratings bettors and friends did well until the 80's when the book Picking Winners caught on and forever changed the game. Now the taxes on winnings are so high I doubt anyone under any circumstances could make money at this game. Horse race betting is dead, Beyer and the politicians both killed it.

Let's agree, if we can, that the method works, however it no longer catches overlay value, rendering it, in effect, non-profitable. This game and all investment arenas is about making money, not just picking winners and losing money, in the long run. Why do even have to mention this? And, my God, Man, where have you been, as race tracks continue to boost the take-out, especially on exotic wagers, where the increases are hardly noticeable. You mean you can be fleeced and not even know what is going on? You are not making any money playing the horses, that much is obvious.

Dude, get a grip. Does the Beyer speed figure provide a closed form solution to all tracks under all conditions at all times, to the minute? Of course not, it's impossible. It allows the bettor to compare the speed of the horses in a race, and applies a correction factor to normalize the track bias. This correction factor, of course, has to make several assumptions. No model is perfect, but some are definitely useful. This one is very useful, but you have to realize its limitations. Beyer freely admits them in this video, if you care to listen.

Andy got the track variant wrong. Those that got it right got a great edge. Andy has got it right quite a bit I would say.

you are wrong , it is true that it is very hard to beat the horses, maybe now more than ever ,but i have won over 100,000 dollars in my lifetime, you may think i am full of it and thats ok, but there is a small pct. of people that work hard at it and can make a profit, I have used Andys books the last 40 years, if you apply his ideas you can win.

Peter , with all due respect , I have always wanted to be prove wrong so , would you please pick any track , race and tell us your pick . I know that you can/t win them all but ,like they say show me the money ,Thank you

Rebates and exchanges nowadays make things less tough but the other killer is the late wagering makes it almost impossible to gain an edge.

HI Bongo,I one race pick does not mean anything,its a long term game, When I was playing the horses seriously, and that means going every day, watching all the races at my track, and dedicating 60 to 70 hours a week to my handicapping I made a profit betting on the horses, some days I won and some days I lost but over time I would make a profit, people do it , not many thats for sure , but if you work hard , and you know what you are doing it can be done,