This isn’t new. Many have been saying this… but we’re in a democracy so his informed view is worth as much as some “cancel my debt” guy on the street… and there’s a lot more of those than there is of him.
It's is perfectly clear the economy is in a ressession and been so since January 2022. A lagging indicator, of 2 consecutive negative GDP quarters, has always been the definition. An inverted bond yield curve, is also very indicative. The other big, " ressessionary" lagging indicator, is a rising unemployment rate. So, that has not been" officially confirmed", as of yet. We do see some crooked govt employment metrics that don't add up. Oh, and a new "gaslighting" phenomena, to explain, declining productivity numbers, called " quiet quitting" The MSM, fake news , false narratives, knows no bounds.
Michael is opening our eyes on the weak chains in our economy and even leadership. If Michael is right about the coming flock of black swans, we will have a better shape of body. Hopefully, it will teach us to spend less than we earn. The constitution of the US has to add a financial responsibility for all members of the government workers who are guilty in creating a national debt. Our children will see hell earlier than we if we leave them debt 30 trillion dollars. Thank You David for the opportunity to hear the truth from Michael Gayed! Throughout history Americans built a better life by working hard, but now, unfortunately, many are looking for fast, huge and easy money. Theodor Roosevelt said that we have to say (to do) only words that we ready to be responsible for that forever.
Great take on future political follow through… people need to wake up to the unsustainable economic inefficiencies created by policies of wealth transfer. There’s no free lunch
Thank you for pointing out that treasuries are losing money. The TLT has been losing money all year. Interest rates going up usually leads to bonds going down. Hold your treasuries to maturity to get you entire principal back and get the interest payments, better than cash except liquidity is effected.
This was quite ominous , but he is spot on treasuries acting as safe heaven, a scenario in which they don't is an extremely real existential threat to our entire economic system, very unlikely but possible.
Plenty of tradesmen here. How does a US tradesman compete against a Vietnamese or Bangladesh tradesman making $20 day? In the world marketplace, skilled labor has become ultra cheap. The USA builds very few ships not because we don't have skilled shipbuilding, but because the owner can have it built elsewhere for 75% less than here.
Before 1913...The 1913 people were the architects of the Transatlantic slave trade...( Curse of Ham ) They brought west Africans here to pick cotton for Levi Strauss & company in NYC
I have not always agreed with all of Michaels investment advice or asset allocations, but his facts and logical conclusions on a U.S. debt crisis I totally understand and agree with.
Until the US Govt cuts their budget by something like 50% and start using those funds to pay down the debt, then nothing will improve. If the 1st 50% doesn't work, then rinse and repeat until it does.
Than they have to cut their military and stop meddling all around the world. But that also means they can't steal and plunder from all these countries either.
Until they stop printing money and giving it away for free and we begin value peoples time and labor again, nothing will change. And if nothing changes we are on a scary trajectory. I don’t know how to make this more clear to people. This is not a financial conversation even though it is taking place on Kitco. This is social political
Talking is a skill most people have. I built my own house (concrete, plumbing, electrical, framing, cabinetry, roofing, drywall, painting, AC, etc). I pulled the motor and tranny out of my sports car and rebuilt it (rings, bearings, etc). I also talk a lot.
As the old debt matures it has to be paid in full. The US issues new dept at the current market rates in order to pay the previous maturities. This Rollover increases the cost of the old debt if the interest rates are higher. The low interest environments were a great time to borrow money today without thinking about the consequences tomorrow.
The final point your guest makes about education of the masses about the financial markets versus the “fun” hobby-like behavior encouraged by social influencers is extremely important IMHO.
It's not clear we are currently in a recession?? I disagree! It's too late. Inflation is already entrenched. Does anyone really think that after a 40% increase in the money supply in the last 2 years and all the QE from GFC that inflation will go away after a year or two once we go into recession from a few rate hikes?
How about a little Ronald Reagan. Raise rates, cut regulation and taxes. Fundamentally dollar value is low with high inflation because demand is far outpacing supply drastically raising prices, increase output and supply to dampen run away prices. How simple, the main issue is tyrannical GOV stealing value from honest hard working people. We need the gold standard to stop Gov benevolent thugs.
I agree with Alfred. It’s fascinating to watch Michael, who I trust but often disagree with, come to grips with the sovereign financial crisis not only in the United States but across the world. However, would also disagree with him that this is unprecedented or “unparalleled“. This has happened numerous times in history as sovereigns always end up insolvent by devaluing their currency.
Kind of misrepresenting him here. Not saying maliciously or anything like that, but there is nuance: The *reason* this is unparalleled isn't because of high levels of debt, or because of high inflation, or an energy crisis, or bond yields rising and the reserve currency (USD) appreciating, it's that these and more are all happening at the same time which makes this scenario unusual.
Very sobering comments about the unique state of the markets today. Especially alarming about bonds and bond funds. My main portfolio has roughly a 50/50 mix of stocks and bond funds. I should have done better defensively, in a more normal 1970s inflationary environment. But my total portfolio is down nearly 18% year-to-date, indicating this strange concurrent weakness in bonds. I think your guest is spot on.
@@dingfeldersmurfalot4560 My point exactly! Being that I shouldn’t have been down as much as I am with bond protection. However, I do own most of the FAANG stocks separately, which influences my overall return.
Gayed: "it's not clear we're in an economic recession". If inflation is at decades high levels and the GDP is down 2 consecutive quarters, not only did the nominal GDP go down but the amount of good and services decreased. Your assessment is Flaccid. Few. If you let air out of the balloon, did it deflate? If you raise prices by 20% but produce 10% less product did the company grow? Tell that to the unemployed worker you let go.
This is an outstanding interview in which I see Michael thinking the same way I am thinking about the next steps in this impossible equation. The one thing that is missing is an elaboration on the issue of gold. On the other hand Michael says there are no solutions, nowhere to hide -- other than gold. Well... so there is a solution then? This needed to be clarified. But all in all, an outstanding interview.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the Public Treasury. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the Public Treasury with a result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy always followed by dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Fraser Tytler- "Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic"
I wish I could give this video a love instead of a like!! Why are Central Banks and governments blind to this? Michael sounds like a sober person in a drunk world!!
“That which taxes are based off of”… And that, my friends, is why they hired 87K new IRS agents. They plan to adjust taxes to take into account the added interest on their future debt.
He's exactly right. Rising rates, rising inflation, about to have rising unemployment. And we are going to keep printing just like Japan. This does not end well.
One thing I can never get behind. Giving smartphones to children is detrimental and has led to the mental illness crisis among our youth. People might think its cute and a good babysitter for the child but ultimately they are a hindrance to proper child brain development.
I realize that this is an investment/economics show, but in the current state of affairs we cannot overlook the political side. In my opinion, this is not the time for the liberal democrats to push their global green agenda and keep spending like there is no tomorrow. If they do not change direction, there may be no tomorrow economically speaking. I feel we need to vote them out of office and hope that in the meantime they do not do more damage than they have already.
The amazing aspect of this problem is that it has been obvious since when in the 80's the debt started on this runaway trajectory. It will now bare fruit for the World banksters.
Gayed is really good with this stuff. But can someone explain how the dollar is strengthening? Is it due to the Fed raising rates? Is it due to the other currencies falling? Is it due to the Fed cutting its balance sheet (whatever that means)? Or something else?
The U.S. government could raise taxes if they want to pay down the debt. The federal government also owns 28% of the land in America, which can be sold to reduce the debt.
The world is never going to get out of this shit of high inflation and debt pump and dump situation until the current fiat system is replaced...but until then it's just a merry-go-round ghost train. When bitcoin takes the market cap of gold that is when the system will be forced to change...
I do the van life. My van is fully equipped for winter use. TEFL and a degree and can work anywhere... Good nutrition... Light weights.... Cardio... This is a top man talking...I can buy a wood stove and be warm... -Most are slaves to a broken system.... -Expect the government to solve all their ills....
