One thing about these side bets I could add which may be helpful.. I’ve been training hundreds of hours before stepping foot into a casino recently. One thing is for sure, training at home and live casino play is a huge adjustment and another hurdle in developing your advantage play. The table I played at had 2 side games that I did not play nor would I … but I noticed how much it slowed the game down. I would say as being new to live casino play, this was helpful to me in helping me keep an accurate count. After a couple of hours when I began to feel more comfortable, I didn’t like the slow pace any longer. But I would definitely say as a new counter, it was nice to have a slower paced game. But it can get old quickly.
Same- one time a guy hit the 3 suited 7’s and won $11,000. He started screaming and running around the casino- couple casino employees in suits came over on their cell phones looking all distressed. Next hand wasn’t dealt for quite a bit😂
@@maximusfrank2835not gonna lie thats the counter argument for throwing a few chips at side bets, do it when there is a potential massive payout. Basically a lottery. The people who play a side bet that pays 4-1 but hits every 6 hands is just dumn it'll siphon those chips sooo fast
Caesars in Las Vegas used to have under/over 13 side bets. You bet on whether or not your first 2 cards would be over or under 13, with Aces always being 11. When the count got well on the + side I would bet over , and bet under when the count got well into the - side. I was winning quite regularly ....soon I had three guys in suits watching me play. I then realized I had outed myself as a card counter. I cashed out a healthy profit and left.
Harrahs in Vegas has a 25-50$ double deck buster blackjack bet but you can’t bet it until the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6 on dealers first card. After she shows a 4, 5 or 6 you have the option to place the buster bet but not before.
Hey Colin, I just wanted to say thank you for all of these videos over the years. Even though I wasn't a succesful long term, full time AP, I loved the job and I loved the experiences I gained from card counting. Thanks for this. Maybe someday I can try again. But that day is a long ways away. Cheers.
In my experience, blackjack tables with Lucky Ladies side bet are more closely scrutinized by casino personnel. You have to decide for yourself what the best course of action is.
@@langdonogeay1141 You're the first person to ask me that question here on RU-vid. No, I'm just an enthusiastic, young green chipper counter with a career. I'm not even close to Ian Andersen or James Grosjean's level. I read Ian Andersen's book in the past, but I have found his camo advice to be only useful in a small number of scenarios, and even then I've had mixed success and don't know if it was worth the loss of EV. Personally, I wonder if Ian Andersen is still alive, or if he'll ever reveal his true identity, say in a book, and schedule its release after he's gone.
Twice in my hometown Cardroom I placed $5 on the BB (buster bet) last time was more memorable cuz it was 4 relatively strangers who all bet the BB. One guy bet $20, another 15, yet another 10 and myself $5....well the lady drew a 7 card bust ..500 to 1 payouts! We were all whopping and hollering.... it did take all of about ten minutes for the management to review the tape and 👌 the payout....needles to say we all took our blk chips and headed to the cash cage!
When the count is really high or really low, a straight or pair is more likely to occur. This is what I’ve noticed not just in my experience, but with the other players at the table as well
@@johnandrews9433 theres no way hes wrong(atleast on the pair part), its just to what degree is where the sim/math will help you. If you think about it, a high/low count means there are more cards of a certain type, so pairs are obv. more likely to appear.
This has also been my experience , when my count got high I started noticing more and more pairs landing. As well as hitting when I know the chances a high card was coming to me and not to the dealer the chances increase of the dealer busting. So no it’s not just you. And those side bets pay
Somebody ran a sim on one of the older Black jack forums. From my understanding Match The Dealer becomes profitable (though very very marginally) starting at a True 7. It's such a slim margin of positive EV that putting anything up there in my view isn't worth the trouble.
I usually don’t play the side bets but match the dealer is the one I play the most I usually set aside and extra $500 just for this particular side bet. And here in New Orleans they have the poker side bets, when there bad there bad and when there good there good having won $10k on a side bet sometimes you have to play them.
Thinking about it, wouldn’t a high true count be beneficial to make player/dealer pair side bets? If it’s more likely to see a lot of face cards then what are the chances you wouldn’t see a few of the same face cards? And with that in mind, if you’re seeing a table with a big negative true count, wouldn’t that be a good 21+3 bet? A lot more smaller cards meaning there’s a good chance you could end up with a 3 card straight or 3 cards totalling 21? The only downside is that you’d need a main bet to play the side bets and you wouldn’t play on a negative true count
This is sort of like going first in a game of Russian roulette. Sure. You're more likely to "win" than people who go after you, but the odds are still terrible. The entire appeal of poker to me, and I guess AP in blackjack, is that you can actually have an edge yourself. There's literally nothing else in a casino where you can do that, even if it's at the blackjack table.
My local casino changed to no hole card blackjack. However if the dealer has blackjack you only loss your original bet. So you don't loss anything from splitting or doubling ect. It's intresting how many people pay attention to the no hole card but ignore the extra rules basically saying it's standard blackjack.
They can be beaten, but you have to have very good memory. If you know that a certain card hasn’t come out very much the probability of 3 of a kind goes up toward the end of the shoe
I just spent the past 2 weeks travelling around using advantage play for the first time. Every casino I was at had the 21+3 game. I'm sure in the long run the side bet is a loser, but man, if I had been playing it I'd have made a fortune. At one casino a player even got irritated at me for never playing it, as I was "winning" about every 3rd or 4th hand had I played it. It was tempting to start playing, but never did. But it was hard after a while.
Ive had a similar situation. with a frustrated player upset he was losing the side bets and seeing that if I had been playing sides id be winning. I never play side bets.
I do well on em. Just in the past week I've hit 4 aces 500 to 1 on lucky aces, which also paid the three of a kind on the 21+3. I wouldn't play lucky aces with real cards though. There is a new casino near me, only have digital blackjack so I play the lucky aces on it. The only side bet I will play religiously is 21+3. There are days it doesn't hardly pay off. There's been other days hit 2 or 3 straight flushes, multiple 3 of a kind and handful of straights.
You forgot one aspect which is reducing rik with one specific side bet. In the case of the side bet called "dealer blackjack" you place a bet that pays usually 19:1 in the case the dealer has a BJ. When you have a high count and you put down a large bet, this side bet would allow you to substantially reduce overall risk, because the high count does not only increase your odds of winning, but also increases the dealer's odds of having a blackjack. The implementation could be for example that on a large bet of say 100 USD you place a "dealer blackjack" of just 5 USD to "insure" yout bet in advance. Cheers.
In my experience, if the count is bad, almost bad enough to trigger a ‘walk away’, then playing the side bets can be a way of hedging your bet or effectively buying insurance; without actually buying insurance. Beyond that, they are there to make the house $
If there is a high count and the dealer pulls a bust card there is an even greater chance they will bust since there are more tens in the shoe. Basic the odds are in favor that they have a ten behind the bust card and will pull another 10 to go bust. 4-6 is pretty much always a stay regardless of what you have. Your play against a 4-6 wouldn't be altered by a high count though you'd just feel more comfortable that a win is coming. However if it was a 2-3 showing you'd alter your play if you had 12 or 13 due to the increased likelihood of both you and the dealer going bust from a shoe rich with 10s.
The casino o deal at has the bonus that pays 9x your bet if you get a straight, flush, and three of a kind, and we also have the Super 3 bonus that pays 90x 180x and 270x your bet
I agree side bets are the biggest sucker bets out there. However idk why but I have done extremely well on dealer bust or the buster side bet. It’s total luck don’t get me wrong but playing heads up with a dealer it’s saved my butt!
@@chrisfinch8637 A true 3 is a true count value, the number that card counters keep track of. If you want to learn how to count cards watch some more of Colin’s videos. If you just want play basic strategy then refusing insurance is the right move.
@@chrisfinch8637 when keeping the count you have to convert it to a true count by dividing the running count by the number of decks left. If that number is 3 or more you want to buy insurance.
Sidebets are great. I do understand that if you play real live in casino it will cost time. However, online it mostly safe me from a bigger loss. I lose my hand but i got a flush or a pair I just got my money back as its a draw. So I dont think its a disadvantage. I play alot of blackjack and sidebets really saved me alot of times. I get alot of x26 x13 x11 x7 x6. Big X are rare but still me and others make alot of those sidebets
Here is a question. I think that i already know the answer, but im mostly interested in the mathematical standpoint. When you talked about 2 different tables, one with better rules and one that goes faster, this is actually a rare case where you generate higher expected value but will be at a higher risk of ruin. If you increase bet size at the slow table you'll be higher expected value too, with higher risk of ruin. Should the consideration not be, which one of the two tables will give the lower risk of ruin given the same expected value per time, or which gives the higher expected value given the same risk of ruin?
It comes down to the specific numbers. However, I think in Colin’s case, it is more about the fact that he wants to stick to what he is familiar with, since learning to count a new game takes time and practice. Say a pro tennis player has the energy to play as many games he wants to, he would choose to play squash everyday and get paid 500 per game than a 6000 tennis game that he can only play once a month.
@@tubeguy4066 I have examined this question in depth and have developed a detailed and in my opinion very accurate conclusion. My hypothesis to the question at hand here is undoubtedly a friendly yet competitive ‘Bagmmiton match between two acquaintances/friends.’
I've made more playing side bets than straight blackjack. A while back, another player sat there criticizing me and my friend for playing side bets. Two hands later, he was dealt two queen of hearts!
All you have to do is find the house edge on that side bet game and apply it however many hands per hour you are using to calculate your EV then subtract that from your EV. If the house edge is 15% and you are playing 100 hands per hour that's -$75/hr EV on your sidebet play. Even if you get those big payouts from the side bet, if you keep playing them long enough you just lose it back. This would be like trying to swim with an anchor tied to your waist. You'd likely be better off trying to bribe the dealer with $75/hr in tips for better penetration and some hole card slips.
I play the $100 minimum tables at WinStar. I usually get up anywhere from $1000 to $1500 and walk. I’ll take $100 of that and I’ll go to the $10 minimum tables and play the $5 progressive bet until I run out of that $100 or until I’m tired and leave. The way I see it, it’s a scratch off ticket. I’ve seen that Jackpot as high as $200,000. Highest I’ve hit is 3 Kings for $1800 just once. But I’ll pay $5 for $200,000. Why not?
My casino has a side bet for natural 20s and matching the dealer. Personally i think playing the nat 20s on high runs is not a bad idea since 10s and aces are more common
Just last week at a kings bounty table I placed $10 on the side bet at a true 3 and hit two kings of spade! (100 to 1 payout) I’m just starting out so I wasn’t aware of the odds with this particular side bet but understood there was a correlation with Hi-Lo. This has been my biggest payout yet :D
Used to deal to multiple cats that would play MORE on the side bet than the actual BJ bet. Of course my casino allowed it! It was insane times. A person would literally get blackjack and be disappointed. Something you have to see as a dealer to believe. These gamblers are nuts.
Push 10 to 1, is a good sidebet if you play it correctly. Only play it with a bet that is 10 percent your wager, and only start playing it if you push with dealer at the beginning of the shoe. Ironically pushes come again if you get one, but if you never get one for half a shoe, don't sidebet it.
Break even for 750 ish hours (8 months of full time play). Lost $46,000 in less than 100 hours, getting treated like a criminal, etc. Run while you can.
@@chriscarlone527 It WAS 128K. Ask anyone about me. My name is "John Smith" on blackjack the Discord. Everything I say is 100% true. Ask Nickles on BJA if you're on there. He knows me well.
I won close to $3700 on a $12.50, 4 card straight side bet. They removed all those tables eventually. And just last week I hit several suited matches on match the dealer side bets. Max bet on thise are $15 for me. Pays nicely.
Oh my I had a pit boss argue with me about this…”THAT’S WHERE THE MONEY IS!” He made fun of me for talking math so I just shut up. ;-) The worst part? I played ONE HAND with the side bets just to shut him up and I won 10X ha ha, “SEE? TOLD YA!” Even in winning, I lost 😂
I was just at a black jack table in Reno Nevada, and it was free to double down, Ive never seen this before but any time you had 10 or 11 they would double it for you! Seemed crazy but cool
@Blackjackapprenticeship Yes, I had never seen it before, but I bought in Twice, Once for $80 , playing $15 per hand and cashed out at $280 Then went back and bought in for $100 and cashed out $300 So It was good
what about the 7s sidebet? i dunno what it's called. possibly keep track of the 7s coming out of the deck? i aint smart so someone tell me why it bad. ty ty
3:30 - I had that exact experience when I went to play Blackjack recently in a big casino. I've arrived early during the afternoon and they only had the Free Bet table open (yes, I know Free Bet sucks). Initially I was doing well up to a certain point, until more jokers started arriving and everyone was wasting their money doing the side-bets, thinking they were genius gamblers. I eventually left the table the moment when I dropped down to my buy-in chips since it was frustrating to me and noticed that the next table was opened and it just happened to have real Blackjack at a slightly higher minimum. In a matter of hours, I managed to raise my chips to almost 9 times my buy-in, just using basic strategy.
Who would count cards? The moment you do too good of a job they just bar you from playing and then the house doesn't even have to worry about you. Modern edge seems impossible given all the little adjustments they do these days on blackjack. More money to be made telling people you can do this and then selling/teaching them a "system" that is obsolete.
I played a few hands of side bets and then didn’t. The time I didn’t I had pocket 7s suited (spade) and the dealer flipped over a 7spade would have had $1300 all because I didn’t put a $5 chip out (that one friggin time)
Great video Colin. In my casino there is a side bet that pays 5 to 1 when you get a "imperfect pair" which is for example a 2 red card and 2 black card, then a colour pair that pays 10 to 1 which same example a 2 and 2 but both red, so 2 of hearts and 2 of Diamond then the best one is 30 to 1 which is perfect pair and continue with the same 2, getting a 2,2 of hearts. What do you think of these side bets?
Is it worth playing a game with side bets that can generate positive EV? Like Lucky Ladies at a true +7. Or is the table limit too low to make it worthwhile
I would treat the LL bet as just an extra way of making money Not something to seek out and specifically play for. The high count needed to beat that bet is rare, so the gain is small, over all. Still, it is worth it if it is available. Table limits can vary widely. I have seen as low as $20 to up as far as $350 and I am sure vary even wider. With that in mind, I agree with Colin, good ole counting is going to be the primary money-maker. Side bets are just that, side bets. Another tool in the bag to be used when needed.
I hit the Lucky Ladies for 25k Dec of 2017 at HollyWood Casino at Charles Town race Track. 25 dollar bet. Got the 2 queen of hearts and dealer was showing a 10 of clubs. He checked the down card and took a step back and said " Whoah Dude..Holy shit. I've got it. He called a pit boss over to flip the card to reveal an ace of diamonds. The whole table was immediately shut down while security started reviewing footage yo make sure it was a legal bet. Finally they came out to get some info from me. After taxes that 25k win paid 18,007 dollars. You have to pay taxes on side bets over 5k. I like that casino because it's a 8 card shoe and pays 3/2. Also, they offer 2 side bets on blackjack that you can play both. The lucky ladies and 3 card poker. 3 card poker pays 9 to 1 and you can bet 5 dollars to 500 each time on that side bet. I've played up to 200 per bet on the 3 card poker side bet and that pays 2700 each time you get a pair, 3 of a kind, a flush, or a straight.
I just won a couple grand on a side bet called "push your luck" where the pay out was 10 to 1 and couldn't exceed more the half of your main bet. I was bet $50 hands and $25 on the side bet. Only time I was aiming for pushes over beating the dealer just cus I was getting paid $250 a hand
I only play lucky ladies after the true count is above a 7 that’s the only side bets I trust I hit them a lot too even when the count is low I feel like every time is sit at a table someone is upset at me because I don’t play them lol
I like playing "Buster bet" (California) when the count is negative(rare that i play it because I'm usually wonging out of that shoe if its a neg count). I think "Buster bet" is self explanatory but if you need an explanation lmk.
@@ELCLAVE300 I don't know what you mean by "bank" I live in northern CA so I play at Hard rock and I go to stations casinos when I am in Vegas. I only like to play BJ with all the good rules (re-split Aces etc.)
@@gstacks510 In California card rooms you are allowed to bank the game. Meaning that the dealers hand is your hand. So if the table loses then you get all the winnings.....but if the dealer loses then you gotta pay the table.... There is more to it. But that's the basics of how banking works.
@@gstacks510 Exactly why I banked the game at cardrooms because of the horrible player advantage. I am an advantage player. I used to play at the socal indian casinos. But I don't have the sizeable bankroll anymore. Ill get back in the game one day if I have at least a $50K bankroll.
what's everyones thoughts on a hitter? are they trolls? are the literally making honest mistakes? or are they hired help to throw a count off.. for instance say 98% of a table stands on a basic strat hand, but that 1 or 2% that hits on say a 20? this is a big flaw I've seen w online cards. your thoughts please.
What other people do on the table doesn't affect anyone else but themselves. In the long run, they will save the table exactly as often as they kill it
I see that at the ultimate table a lot and just as often as they draw a dealers bust card, they would draw small cards that would have given the dealer the win.
$5 side bet in the Casino in 29 palms casino in California is absolutely worth it, pay a $5 side bet and if you get a blackjack, you spin a wheel of fortune where at the very minimum is a win of $50. Wish I knew how to count cards when I was in Cali, seemed like a great place to count thinking back on it
That's a terrible side bet. The average player gets 1 blackjack once per shu. And you play about 30 hands a shu. Meaning your putting in about 150 per shu to win on average 40$. Sure you have that 1% chance of winning more but those wheels are programed to give the lowest amount to 90% of the time.
@TheJssr2 Even at the bare min, a side bet win pays for at minimum of 5 more hands or you get a motorcycle at most but most the time it's between $100-250, theres only one option for $50, one for the motorcycle, (3) for $100, (3) for $150, (2) for $250, (1) Free spin and (1) elusive motorcycle, alternatively, instead of a motorcycle, you can take $25,000 instead. In the 5 years I went there, that was won twice. It's either a $10 bet or $15 bet, it's a very easy side pot to play every hand, there's literally no reason not to. You'll never hit it if you don't!
Hi Colin, I just start to follow your free content and this video generate curiosity, in my local casino, there are side bets that consist on if you get a hand of -13 you get paid 1-1 and the same for a hand that adds +13, my question is it worth to bet on those when the count correlates? Ex I have a +10 running count with 3 decks left so that’s a true 3 can I bet on a +13 hand in that case or you won’t recommended ether way ?
Hey Colin, I read an article ablut beating Bj without csrd counting. They listened two methods, 1) Hole Carding (Identifying the dealers hole card) and 2) Front loading (Predicting the next card). I am not sure what to think about it, can you make a Video about it please. I think this is very interessting. Keep up your great content!
I know there is a special system for counting to beat o/u13 but I can’t really do two different counts at once is there a point in the standard system I can use to accurately tell me when to play o/u13 over is fairly easy for me to estimate myself but the under seems far from that.
One of my favorite insurance conversations was at my local place. Dealer was a seasoned vet and very good at his job. Very personable and I’m pretty sure knew I was an AP but didn’t care. [Dealer has an Ace up] Dealer: “Insurance? Insurance anyone?” Casual player: “So is insurance worth it?” Dealer: “If I have blackjack it is!” [Table laughs] Casual player: “No like what’s the odds behind it?” Dealer: “Think about it this way. Do we have to offer insurance on these games?” Other player: “No” Dealer: “Correct. But we do anyway. What would that tell you?” [Casual player sits dumbfounded] Dealer: “Are you staying in the hotel?” Casual player: “Yes tonight and tomorrow” Dealer: “Is it nice?” Casual player: “Very” Dealer: “Do you think we are able to do that because we offer bets that lose money?” Casual player: “So don’t take insurance?” [Everyone passes on insurance - dealer checks & no blackjack] Casual player: “I knew you didn’t have it” Dealer just smiles and glances at me. I smile back. Like our own private joke that nobody else at the table would even understand.
See Arnold Snyder's Big Book of Blackjack for a ton of info, including beating side bets and some pseudo-blackjack variant games. In reality, he admits most of them aren't worth the effort, but are still, technically, beatable.
At the casino I always play blackjack in, they have a Royal Match side bet. So if my first two cards are suited, it pays more than a blackjack equivalent to the bet. I usually put my spare change on it, and it has often saved me from some bad stiffs and unexpected dealer 21s. I think Side bets are acceptable as long as you treat them like you would a slot machine. Only your chump change and never your main bankroll.
On a freshly shuffled hand tens have a very good chance of winning pairs. Bet the first few hand that way, once you see the tens used up stop. A rule of law, if the house offers it, it is to their advantage. You never buy insurance and you never surrender. ALSO; Take advantage of the dealer offering you insurance when the house shows an ace. The dealer checks his down card, you now know it is not a ten. You will win 67% of the time on that one bet, as long as you play correctly.
The problem is, if you aren't counting than you better be doing the side bets. There is no money in blackjack aside from Side bets or counting. They don't mix as you can see 🤣
thus the trap of side bets, if you don't play them every hand you can miss out, but if you do then you will also likely be pouring money down the drain
Prior to the round Running count : 12 True count: 3 Playing heads you’re holding TT and the dealer has and Ace. Do you take insurance? Don’t know if you take it because it was a true three at the start of the round or after the cards are dealt. At first, played it based on the true count prior to the round then migrated to whatever the true count was prior to the dealer drawing their hole card. Not sure what is the correct way to do it.
When your turn comes around, always consider ALL cards that have seen when considering index plays...including insurance(whether to take it or not). That's your count to consider, not the count prior to the round being dealt. In your hypothetical, I'd probably take the insurance with the true count at an approximate 2.3. (9 divided by a little less than 4 now. The hi-lo system is an imperfect science when it comes to any index plays. Reason being is that sometimes there is a higher or lower proportion of neutral cards left in the deck. And sometimes the percentage of 10's left in the deck can vary if the negative cards you've counted are a higher or lower proportion of Ace's compared to 10's. At a true 3, there's an average of 18.4 tens and 4.6 aces per 52 cards....or 35.4% tens. (a nice advantage on a 1 in 3 bet!) But I'll bet the 95% bell curve( +/- 2 standard deviation) would run something like 33% to 38% on a 6 or 8 deck shoe. That's just a guess. But it almost all but guarantees positive EV on the play. (but not 100% of the time) At a true 2 the average ratio drops to 17.6 tens and 4.4 aces per 52 cards. That's still 33.8 % tens. So this indicates to me that an average true 2 count there will be more chances than not( maybe 60%) that it will be an advantageous bet. But the EV is miniscule. I'll bet the bell curve is something like 31.5% to 36%. Often enough if its a double deck game, I'll take insurance on a true 2. or even less. That is if I've seen a lot of Aces or neutral cards come out. Likewise, I'll refrain on a true 3 if the decks are ace rich and/or if there hasn't been many neutral cards played. Harder to keep track on an 8 deck game haha.
A house I play has the Kings Bounty. I watched this video and have been putting out a bet at true 7. Happens a few time a week. I have been about 25% on hitting on it. I get comments from my players around me like, "wait, you don't play that bet!" I cringe and say I had a feeling. I get a side eye out of the dealer. Just rolling with it. Also, since it is a advantage play are you keeping this money in your EV tracker or are you taking it out? I hit a 75:1 KKss for $1875 the other day but don't know if I should count it as it will skew my numbers BUT it derived from an AP play...so....??
How you track can be up to the player, but playing that side bet at those ideal conditions are part of the game when you're there so I would think it factors into the EV. If it skews your numbers heavily then that more just means it's a great game to play given the ability to also find that extra EV. There's no wrong way to track your stats, as long as you're consistent and the data is meaningful enough to know to follow your progress.
There's a mnemonic technique for cards. So, I think there's a way to *win* side bets. Trusting simulations is key though. We're all part of a simulation. And that's my point, there's people out there that's can literally memorize many decks of cards. They've proven it in this overall "simulation" that we're in
Unfortunately I play based to win on the sides bets. Cause there's two at the casino I go to. Genuine +3 if you and the dealer makes a 3 card flush, straight etc. but they have another one (top 3) where 3 of a kind, straight flush, suited trips it pays 90, 180, and 270 to 1 so yeah I play 10 on main and then 5 or 10 on plus 3 and 5 (max) on the top 3 and sure if I win the hand but no side bets I break even and if I lose on all 3 I can lose $200 easily and it happened last night but luckily later on I hit two 3 of a kinds in 4 hands so it saved me and brought me to profit. I don't have the mentality of trying to bet $40 even $50 on just the main bet and winning. Just me I guess.
@Sheldon Cooper I keep up with w dual system I use only when playing buster which is very rare with the pandemic so it's a only in case of emergency situation
Great site Colin! However Eliot Jacobson is saying in his video 'SEVEN reasons to never count cards' that the win rate is a lot lower than the numbers you have suggested. I am not saying you are wrong, it's just Eliot Jacobson is someone who has been on the scene for a long time and has a lot of integrity.
This is going to be an essay, but bear with me 1) "It's hard to learn" This is so completely ridiculous that it almost invalidates anything else he has to say. If you have a couple hours a day, you can learn Hi-Lo in a week and have it memorized in a month. Actually being able to use it in a casino environment takes a bit longer with real-world practice in a noisy and smokey casino environment, but to say that it's hard to learn is, frankly, bullshit, especially coming from someone who has a PhD. You don't need to learn how to do some things he mentions such as calculating the Kelly criterion or RoR or N_O in order to be a successful AP. You certainly CAN, but it isn't necessary to know all that before sitting down at a table and generating EV. 2) "It's hard to find a good game" Harder than a few decades ago, absolutely. Impossible? No way. Depending on where you live it can be harder than for others. I'm fortunate enough to live near two casinos with single deck 3:2 DOA but they are very small and well off the beaten path. You just need to do your research beforehand. I will concede that if you don't live near any casinos with a decent game, then you have to start factoring travel costs into your expenses and this might disqualify some people from being APs at a serious level, but this shouldn't be used as a blanket statement for anyone looking to learn how to count cards. 3) "It's hard to count cards in a casino" See #1. All it takes is practice and a little time, and I'm still surprised this is coming from someone with a PhD. I'm sure that was hard to do too but he managed to do it. 4) "The profit potential is very low - perfect play" Obviously this depends on what your minimum and spread are since these operate on percentages. Higher average bet, higher total EV, but also requires a higher total bankroll to begin with. Also, he uses no heat/perfect play figures of $33.58/hr and $66.29/hr as a method of discouragement? Even cutting those numbers in half (which he does using an 8x spread with a max of $100), you're looking at anywhere from $15-30/hr for sitting there and playing cards! That's more than most hourly workers make! It's not enough to get you to retire at 40 or anything, but damned if that isn't a great rate for a part time gig, and of course those numbers will scale upwards as your average bet and spread increases. Also his counter-proposal of hole-carding 3-Card Poker at $120/hr is just insane. The only way you would even know that a dealer is doing something like that is to watch every single dealer at the table for extended periods of time, losing 5.32% per hand on average while you're there, or have a dealer in on it and risk their job in the process. I'm astonished this was a serious proposal at all. 5) "The bankroll swings can be brutal" Yes, they can. It takes a much larger starting bankroll to get into counting cards than most people realize, and bad variance at the start can come close to wiping you out if you aren't careful and get incredibly unlucky. But if you're counting near perfect (through practice) and your spread is reasonable, it will always trend upwards in the long run. This isn't a reason to not learn how to count cards as much as it is a warning that variance exists and is accounted for if you're prepared beforehand. 6) "You will get caught" If you do it for long enough and don't much care to disguise yourself or put on an act, then probably. I've been doing it for about a decade at casinos that have some of the best player odds in the country (which you'd think would be most on the lookout for APs) and I've never been backed off, but that's just anecdotal. I don't claim to have the secret to not being backed off. Guess I just come across as a trust fund kid with too much money and time on my hands, who knows. But again, this is only a deterrent if you only have one or two options of casinos with good rules. Colin has a ton of videos dealing with getting backed off and how it isn't that big of a deal. Just part of the job. Also, his claim that almost every casino trains their dealers on card counting identification is just not true. I'm sure some do (and they definitely do for the supervisors), but I highly doubt it's a majority. The fact is that it isn't cost effective to use that time for training when there are statistically so few APs out there. Their time is better spent just dealing and making sure their payouts are correct. I can't find hard numbers on this, but I have to imagine casinos lose more to dealer error than they do to APs. Source: former dealer. 7) "After you're caught, your future is limited" Yes and no. Again, Colin has done videos about how it's not that big of a deal unless you get trespassed, and even then, there are thousands of casinos around the country. Odds are if you live close to one, you live close to three or four, and unless they're owned by the same companies, they almost certainly don't share a card counting database (assuming the place that trespasses you even gets your ID). As a footnote, the fact that he suggests hole-carding, edge-sorting, split-for-less, and skilled cutting (which 99% of dealers are skilled enough to avoid letting you do), as well as vulturing slots (which is a fucking CRIME) as more lucrative alternatives tells you everything you need to know about this man's credibility
As a former dealer and floor supervisor, whenever customers asked about sidebets, I told them they were a waste of money. Most didn’t believe me lol 😂 With that being said, though, I have seen some crazy lucky ladies hands. I was dealing one night where no one was playing it. 3 handed, 2 of the players hands each had a Queen of Hearts Pair and I flipped over a blackjack. My mouth dropped.
Holy shit man.. I hit a lucky ladies my FIRST time betting on that side bet. I didn't even know what I hit until the dealer yelled for the pit boss to come over and the pit boss called the camera pit to confirm. The dealer had a 10 face up and unfortunately when the pit boss had the dealer check for 21 the dealer didnt have it. But I still managed to get 625X my bet.
Bro I hit suited 777 like 2 hours ago in Grovner casino in london .. and guess what it was 270 to 1 + 30 to 1 + 20 to 1 + jackpot .. total is 48k £ dm to show you prove 🤣😊
