The European Championship is coming up soon and I wanted to do an interesting commentary on something weird I noticed going on. I hope it's interesting and if you like my content I would greatly appreciate a sub!
That Italian team was far from average. This is coming from an England supporter. Chiesa, Bonucci, Donnarumma, Jorginho and many more superstars. England were a good team that year, but Italy beat Belgium and Spain and had a much harder road to the final. Put some respect on their names.
The fact is that the Italians did not win the 2020 EC, but the English lost it. If they don't stand back to defend after the early goal, but attack the clearly confused Italians, they will probably decide the match in the first half. Instead, they watched from close range as they slowly regained their composure in roughly half an hour and fought out a tie. Although, regardless of this, they cannot be considered average, because I think the two best and most balanced teams of the tournament played in the final.
@@Geefater79 what is strange is that England used a tactic called Catenaccio. Against the national team who *mastered* it. Imagine playing Spain and using tiki taka
As an Italian, our 2021 squad wasn't bad but it wasn't the best either. Chiellini and Bonucci were old as hell, that was their last dance, Spinazzola was a beast but got injured and replaced by a mediocre Emerson Palmieri, Immobile has always been pretty mid for Italy. Our midfield was great tho and Donnarumma saved our asses multiple times, which is why he won the player of the tournament award
If I remember correctly, France was the first team to fall Victim of the World Cup Curse, and they broke it... Would be poetic, if Germany did the same with this curse
ironically, I believe they only managed to break the curse because they had many absences before the World Cup and had to play with half the reserve team. All the other teams that succumbed to the curse were practically the same ones that were champions, but 4 years older, and with many players in bad form but with a guaranteed place in the starting team because of their status.
It is not really a curse. It just shows that it is very hard to win an international tournament even when you are the host. Sometimes it even gives more pressure to perform.
Ngl, as a german I was super confident, that Germany wont make it far in the Euros, but after beating france twice and also the netherlands and then also having those fantastic seasons of Stuttgart & Leverkusen and 3 Semi Finalists in the CL & Europa League. I have to say Germany is back at a very high level. Probably the strongest team since 2014.
@@Hive__everybody talked shit about Germany and after two good friendly games everybody says they’re back and so strong I doubt that too. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t make it out of the group
@@Definitely_not_pi You just have to look at the players that played in the last two games compared to those who played in the games before. Its a different team now, without players like Süle, Schlotterbeck and other ones that werent good enough for the team.
Exactly, defining not being able to win a highly competitive tournament with multiple very good teams as a “curse” is very lazy. Even with home advantage, so many things need to go your way as a host nation to be able to win it.
Also worth mentioning that Greece had a great manager in 2004 EUROS. One of the greatest to come out of germany and the only foreign manager to win a prestigous trophy with a diff country
Manager AND Trainer, are different positions! In England, these 2 positions, are usually held by the same person, at the same time! Ulrich Hoeneß is a manager in Munich. Sebastian Hoeneß is at trainer in Stuttgart. Dieter Hoeneß is is manager in Berlin. Dieter is the father of Sebastian. Dieter is a brother of Ulrich.
And the Greece back four were epic , that back 4 could keep possession and pass it around until the attackers got tired of chasing them , 👌,I had never seen anything like that before.
To all the ppl saying he's disrespecting Italy, he is saying that it is an average team as far as Italy goes, not that they are average on the European stage
The fact is he could’ve chose better words. It’s fair to say Italy as a team were average perhaps skillfully, however tactically they were far from average as they were the most well organized team in the tournament which is how they got through their tough run to the final playing teams like Belgium and Spain
It's a nonsense argument. Italy don't need to be as good as the Italy squads of the past (many of which win nothing, by the way). They only needed to be as good as the teams they were facing in 2021: Belgium, England, etc. So Italy's regression of the last 2 decades is admirably cancelled out by the fact that the others have not really progressed. Whether Italy of 2021 was weaker than Italy of 2002 is irrelevant.
@@pritapp788 How can anyone tell whether the current Italy squad is objectively better or worse than e.g. the 1994 Italy squad? Tactics shift all the time, and you can only ever play as well as the opposition allows you to. Who the fuck knows how Baggio and Zola would have fared against a high pressing game, for instance?
Bro they were the best team at that tournament. It’s not all about superstars. They played the best football and every pundit player and person with a brain said they were incredible. Not average by any standard. Better than England in every way unless you’re a prem tard
"Italy are average on the world stage, not on the Euro stage" lol that doesn't make sense, litterely the only strong teams are Euro teams plus Brazil and Argentina, in that case how can team be strong for Europe but not for the world?
That Italian team played the best football all tournament. They had to get past Belgium, Spain, and England where all England had an underperforming German side followed by Ukraine and Denmark
That "average" Italian team played better in that Euro than any other team there and even better most teams in the last 30 years. They also hold the record of longest unbeaten streak in international football (almost lost that record to Argentina but Saudis saved them, lol). And France won the Euro in home soil in 1984. That was their first hosting since 1960.
2:42 Wrong. Germany didnt defeated Italy. They played 1-1 in the group stage. Until 2016 Germany was never able to win against Italy in a major tournament (EUROs or World Cup) and technically never after 90 minutes. Calling Italy „average“ at the Euros 2020 is ridiculous. The Team who won the group and won against Belgium, Spain and England in the Final, was a group - a team. Thats what wins you titles. Its coming to Rome 🇮🇹💙
And he was definitely not the center of attention as the author of the video makes it out to be. He had just finished his first year at Man United, and although he was already a very well known and exciting player, the attention was targeted more at Luis Figo and the Porto players that had just won the UCL under Mourinho like Deco and Ricardo Carvalho.
@@danielasdf2004 Ja doch die letzten 3 Turniere waren nichts, muss man jetzt nicht so gierig werden.Finale alleine wäre schon ein Traum und Musiala und Wirtz sind noch jung.
So many big mistakes in this video: 1.Germany didn't actually beat Italy in Euro 1988. The game ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams progressing through the semifinal. To be honest, Germany has never beat Italy when it comes to major tournament games (Euro and World Cup), at least within 90 minutes. In Euro 2016, Germany eliminated Italy in the quarterfinal, but it was a penalty shootout that's technically a draw. 2.France actually hosted the European Championship THREE TIMES! The 2016 was the 3rd one. The 2nd one was back in 1984, when they won the whole thing after beating Spain in the Final by 2-0 scoreline thanks to a masterclass from Michel Platini. 3.Italy are really deserved to win Euro 2020. Calling this winning team as an "average" was quite harsh. Italy played two tough games against Belgium and Spain, whose squads were seemingly better than the Italians. They didn't played too well against Austria in RO16, but managed to escape the scare thanks to Marko Arnautovic's disallowed goal. On the other hand, England's only tough games was against Germany, who were underperformed in that tournament, and their roads were much easier than Italy because of notable surprising results. The Netherlands, who were England's potential opponent in the semifinal, lost to Czechia in RO16. England instead played against Ukraine and Denmark before that Final, with the game against Denmark being so scandalous because of Raheem Sterling's blatant dive that shouldn't resulted in a penalty for England. I will also add numerous infos regarding this video: 1.The interesting thing about England's potential Euro 2020 triumph is the fact they could become the third (only) country to win both men's and women's Euros, after Germany and the Netherlands. More extremely, the women's version of the last European Championship also took place in England, with the Wembley Stadium being the final venue of both men's and women's. The women's team of England defeated Germany 2-1 in the extra time, only 12 months after that men's team's defeat to Italy. This may be a big coincidence. 2.I think Germany's potential Euro 2024 triumph could made this year being so special. Earlier this year, the Asian Cup and AFCON winners were Qatar and Ivory Coast; both being the hosts of the respective continental tournaments.
@@mattis1241 It's equally easy to say of someone "tell me your (sic) from England without telling me you are from England" when coming across an idiot that needlessly hates on Italy's team of 2021.
@@uromi-owuopukeme6081 Nah, they won't win it with this average squad and Berhalter. Berhalter is basically an "American Southgate". Oh yeah, and the USA call football as "soccer".
Also, I just realized another weird thing about the Euros. Since you mentioned Euro 1988 as the "start of Euros host curse", you may notice that the Netherlands had won the tournament with 5 players from PSV Eindhoven that also won the European Cup several weeks ago, including superstar Ronald Koeman. The European Cup Final was also held in West Germany, at Stuttgart's Neckarstadion (now MHPArena). It was also the last time a single country has won both Euros and Champions League the same year. Since then: 1.1992 European Cup winner: Barcelona (Spain). Spain didn't qualify for Euro 1992. 2.1996 Champions League winner: Juventus (Italy). Italy crashed out in the Group Stage, 3rd behind Germany and Czech Republic. 3.2000 Champions League winner: Real Madrid (Spain). Spain lost to France in the Quarterfinal. 4.2004 Champions League winner: Porto (Portugal). Portugal lost to Greece in Final. 5.2008 Champions League winner: Manchester United (England). England didn't qualify for Euro 2008. 6.2012 Champions League winner: Chelsea (England). England lost to Italy in the Quarterfinal. 7.2016 Champions League winner: Real Madrid (Spain). Spain lost to Italy in the Round of 16. 8.2021 Champions League winner: Chelsea (England). England lost to Italy in the Final. Worth noting that Portugal and England lost the Euro Finals, having their respective clubs won the Champions League before! And for this year, a country whose clubs won the Champions League, Spain or Germany, must paid the consequences by getting "cursed" in Euro 2024 itself, with Germany aiming to made 3rd "unlucky hosts", just like Portugal and England, should Borussia Dortmund won the Champions League!
Honestly speaking, you may have home support as hosts, but it isn't always an advantage. The home support can also put pressure on the players, not to mention there is the luck factor or even the strength of the opposition. Honestly speaking, since 1992, only 5 hosts seriously looked to have a chance of winning. They were England in 1996 and 2021, The Netherlands in 2000, Portugal in 2004 and France in 2016. Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Poland and Ukraine were surely not favourites for their home tournaments, and miracles don't happen every day. For the opposition side, the Netherlands faced Italy in the 2000 semi-finals, and lost on penalties to a very strong opponent. It's hard to beat a team with the likes of Maldini, Totti, Del Piero, Nesta, Cannavaro, Conte and more. Portugal were the best of the 2004 favourites, but Greece weren't in the final entirely by chance. They had made a playing system allowing them to defend perfectly on the opponent, to then counter-attack and score with a header. It wasn't spectacular, but their style paid off, like for Spain with Tiki-Taka. England had strong teams both in 1996 and 2020, but they had opponents either as their match or slightly stronger than them. For France, I think they weren't ready to be taken to extra time, and as the players said themselves, they were mentally impacted by Ronaldo leaving the pitch early. They lacked consistency and endurance, also hitting the edge of the post in stoppage time, bad luck.
As a Dutchman, that semi-final against Italy in 2000 still haunts me. I still don't know how we lost that one (apart from being extremely bad on the penalties). Would we have won against France in the final? Hard to say. Reigning world champions of course, but I feel like we could have.
@@DrQuatsch Those Italians were, as I mentioned and named them, tough as hell. They made all of their opponents suffer. Denk ik de Oranjen missed their chance with the 2 penalties they had during the match. Otherwise, I don't think there is more to regret for them. Wat kan ik nog meer zeggen? Het is wat het is.
@@DrQuatsch France send on their subs to have fun in the group game against the Netherlands and a strong Dutch lineup struggled to beat those subs 3-2. I would have bet on a comfortable French win in the eventuality of a France-Netherlands final.
The only 'curse' here is the hosts that lost the finals(+ Greece and Denmark that shouldn't have won it but somehow got all the luck in the world). You are acting like Austria, Ukraine or Belgium for example are destined to win it, just because they are hosts. And then they can't even move from the group stage. This whole curse is just the hosts thinking they already won it, when they are in the final and losing it because of their confidence and false thinking. And at least that proves that the Euros aren't ridged so to say, which I'm not sure could be said for WC, where every 2-3 formats there you have a very big conspiracy and almost always the big hosts are winning it.
What do you mean, "France hosted 2016 for the first time since the inaugural competition"? They hosted it in 1984 and actually WON. I even saw one match in the stadium in Strassbourg, Germany v. Portugal 0:0. Michel Platini played a blinder in that tournament.
In 2000, even the referee wanted Holland to go the final. When he saw we couldn't beat Italy on our own, he gave us two penalties. Of course by now we know it was useless. May be we could beat Italy, but nobody can beat the curse ;) Holland missed both penalties in regular time, as well as four more in the disastrous shoot that followed 😂
The Euros is the hardest tournament to win because Europe has so many top teams. Typically, the best team wins. Italy had the best defence in the world in 2020(1). And Chiesa up front. They weren’t average.
Bro that “average Italian side” holds the world record for longest international unbeaten run (37 games). They had donnarumma in goals, bonucci and Chiellini as CB, concerning whom mourinho said that they could give defending lessons at oxford’s university, Spinazzola as left back, who was arguably a top3 left back in the world at that time; in midfield they had Jorginho, CL winner, Verratti, one of the best midfielders in the world (ask Neymar and mbappe) and barella who won serie a with inter that year and its now Italy’s best player. In attack they had insigne who had a great season with Napoli and chiesa in his prime, who was simply unstoppable. So come on man, put some respect on that team! They completely deserved to win that year
Nah. It was a shock yes. But in my opinion the biggest shock in football is when Leicester defied the odds and won the PL in 2016. They were 5000/1 or so to win the biggest prize in domestic football. It was a fairy tale that we will probably never see again.
@@rstein926 I did have that in mind. But Greece still takes it for me only by a tiny margin. Just based on how shocked I was on both occasions. I couldn’t lift my jaw off the floor for a week when they won it. I think I prefer it because it was a national team, feels so much more special. When I think back I still can’t believe Greece won the euros, how weird does that sound, Greece won the euros. 😂
The irony of a super star Portuguese national team bottling the Euros at HOME, just for a weaker side to win it with an injured Ronaldo, a goal from the weakest player on the team, while facing a super star French national team in their own territory. Yeah we didn’t deserve that trophy, we deserved it back in 04, but that’s football I guess. France went on to win the WC four years later so I guess it is all good 😂
West Germany did not beat Italy in 1988. 1-1, Mancini and Brehme. Germany has never beaten Italy at the World Cup or the Euro Cup; yes, they have eliminated them twice in the Euros, 1996 and 2016... but technically with two draws.
I'm not sure about a curse, there were many hosts that didn't stand a chance to win the tournament to begin with, should we really consider them to be "cursed"? I guess with this logic Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Russia and Quatar are also cursed for not winning their host world cups, these incredible strong football nations that have to suffer from a curse since 2002. Poor USA, Canada and Mexico, they are all favorites to win the next world cup but it can't be helped, they are cursed.
Crazy thing is politics prevented Mexico from winning the world cup 1970 on home soil, their own president fucked them over, making them play their quarter final against the italians in a 25,000 stadium, same stadium where italy played all their group stage games, fifa and mexican federation had it planned for mexico to not leave the capital and force the italians to mexico city and play the quarter finals vs the hosts in front of 110,000 hostile mexicans, surely the result woulda been different. That was mexicos world cup to begin with, maybe they would have lost the final to the brazilians but who knows, knowing ur the underdog, the world cup is on your homeground, and u got 110,000 mexican souls supporting u, who knows but we definitely should have been in a timeline where mexico has been to a world cup final. That 1970 and 1986 mexico squads were the best in their history. Especially that 1970 squad who had come from beating brazil at the maracana in a friendly 1969, including england at the Wembley in 1968 friendly
A good observation another point, the name of the competition ... its called The European Championship's or for short "The Euro's" ... its original name from its inception was The European Nations Cup.
How is this even a curse when teams like Switzerland and Ukraine weren't expected to win the tournament? It is always difficult to win an international tournament, and being the hosts only makes it slightly easier, or adds even more pressure. Going so many years without the hosts winning is not something that is that out of the ordinary IMO. This video is just making things out of nothing.
How is that a curse? 3 out 16 host nations? Last I checked, we now have 24 teams playing the tournament, fairly less is in the past, but still. The expected value of winning the tournament should still be less than 3/16 = 18,75%, last I checked
Dortmund made it to the finals, Bayern made it to the semifinals and Levurkusen have gone undefeated. If German clubs with mostly german players are this good than surely they will win the euros, right?
This video doesn’t really make sense if you’re looking at probabilities. There are 16 teams in the euros so the fact that 3/16 host teams have won it makes the host team 3 times more likely than a regular team to win it which makes sense considering they have home advantage it’s not really that crazy. And lots of the host teams weren’t favourites and are smaller countries who are just worse than other teams.
eh humans love patterns, and even the World Cup winner curse is broken now. If you look back to the earliest EUROs or World Cups you can find any pattern suggesting basically any team could win.
...I always felt, that hosting a national championship has a serious drawback, because the team does not have to qualify...we see a similar pattern with the world champions, who never need to qualify for the next tournament, and then in recent times often catastrophically fail to sometimes even get further than the first round... my thesis is, that those teams didn't develop enough bonds & guts on the challenging path towards qualification, and then get thrown into the cold water... not too weird for me - rather logical...
In the end its quiet simple. Smaller host nations are playing better than expected because of the home advantage but in the end there is a better team who will eliminate them sooner or later.
Intriguingly no team has ever won the Euros or World Cup as hosts since France in 1984 and 1998 respectively: Euro winnes post France 1984 1988 Netherlands 1992 Denmark 1996 Czech Republic 2000 France 2004 Greece 2008 Spain 2012 Spain 2016 Portugal 2021 Italy World Cup winners post France 1998 2002 Brazil 2006 Italy 2010 Spain 2014 Germany 2018 France 2022 Argentina
That's not really a curse... Many of these hosting nations were not great, and even if you're one of the best teams you still have about 20% chance of winning (every time there's about 3-4 great teams and a few underdogs so 20% is normal for a knockout tournament). So 3-13 is a normal win rate for hosting nations.
There is nothing bewildering about this. Home field advantage is not an advantage. On the contrary, the crushing pressure of the expectations can infringe the lightfootedness of players who might be willing to risk more but also be less prone to over zealous mistakes when the stakes aren't so high. Brazil - Germany 2014 world cup semi final on home turf is the best example. You see this in world cups a lot too.
I think this year might be different since thia year has been mark by the host team winning the competition it's regiona and it happened in the Afcon and the afc asia cup wirh ivory coast and qatar
After losing the first game 1;0 to Greece I found a bookie who gave 13/2 for Portugal to win tournament . I stuck £100 on and let it ride ,By the time the final came with both Greece and Portugal contesting final . Portugal had dropped to 7/4 with the draw 5/4 and Greece 5/2 as far as can remember? I decided against covering my bet for an outright win by betting on Greece £200 at 7/4 because I was convinced Portugal and Ronaldo would go all out for revenge and win easily but lightning struck twice !
As someone who watches sports. Lots of different sports. You really never know whats gonna happen. Thats why sports betting is a thing. At least when it comes to team sports, theres soo much going on. The pressures of being favorites is an unpredictable thing. Home advantage in football seems like its a thing when its knockout game or round robin. But if you watch american sports where there are 7 game series, youll know home advantages are not a deal breaker. And for euro cups and world cups travel isnt a thing because all the teams are camping in the host country. This euro cup is really hard to predict, i wouldnt bet on Germany doing it. They could but this is sports dont bet on anything.
I hate to be that guy, but isn’t it mathematically the exact thing that we would expect the most? That the chance of the host aka a single nation winning the euros is far less than any other country winning it? And therefore the outcome of the past 12 euros shouldn’t be anything surprising right? At least that’s what I’m thinking. It’s a great video nonetheless, don’t get me wrong. It’s just that the maths wasn’t mathing for me lol
At first glance yeah, but because there isn't a real "home field advantage", the probability of the host nation winning is almost 0. Not to mention, everyone wants to beat them the most. Because it's the "hardest hit". But a trend you found, none the less.
The logic of this video is a bit weird. There are a lot of teams competing and there are only a hand full of teams that you can consider a contender. Multiple times there have been a host that was just not a good enough team to win it like austria, switzerland, poland and ukrain. If you take the only 3 out of 16 host nation winners used in the video, that is still a 18% win percentage for the host which is actually a good percentage.
In fact, you were splitting some fun facts so it my turn, since Germany will be held for the Euros this year it almost gonna start in June according to you something will also happened weird, as I predicted England to win the euros because they have more chances to win than Germany we all know some nations are strong but England this season is 🔥💀, since they have Cold Palmer, Kane, Belligol, Rice, Mainoo, Foden And last but not least is Branthwaite their performance is about scoring a hattricks & a lot of goals I don't think my prediction will be true if not, I'm picking 3 Nations: France, England And Germany
I think a lot of European teams are just struggling with their identity and lack of real talent. Spain, are trying to replicate 2008-2012 and that’s very very hard considering how great their players were, and how much depth they had. Germany also tryna replicate 2014, but their team is just not good enough, a lot of their positions are filled with some people no one have even heard of. (Also may be due to their historical clubs kicking the buckle after years of Bayern dominance and Bayern also realizing those German talent producing clubs aren’t there so they can’t just snatch up all the Germans, and now have to buy players of different nationalities. Italy won the euros because they were good, but a lot of those good players are gone, or past their prime. Netherlands just don’t seem cohesive enough compared to other teams And actually all these teams have goal scoring problems. There seems to be a epidemic of where there’s no real strikers anymore, no one you can hope will find their way onto a ball as long as it’s in the box. I mean really, there’s only a few countries that really have clinical strikers and some of those teams have like 3 or 4 while others don’t have any.
The Czech Republic National team really fell off, They used to have Pavel Nedved: Ballon d'or winner, petr Czech: best keeper in the world at the time, And Tomas Rosicky top premier league player. Now their just not the same.
Average Italy side who was heading towards 37 games unbeaten gaining a world record. Average Italy team that defeated Belguim, Spain and England who were ranked in the top 5. You continue to celebrate mediocrity in England
its hard to win a tournament. i'd be more surprised if the host won it more often than not.don't think it qualifies as a curse. a curse would be something like, being one of the best strikers in the world, not winning a trophy despite playing in a couple of finals, moving to a team who has won the league every year for over a decade and then procede to win 0 throphies. 😜
Now i'm not looking at this Euro as a football competition as I always do, now this is like a good tv series and I can't wait to see Germany losing the final in the last episode. I'm portuguese btw and thank god i was too young to care about the euro 2004 final, and thank god again for the absolute experience that was 2016, it was insane for us.
