Super-Spiked Videopods (EP28): The End Is Not Near (for Oil...or Gas) 

Please keep doing these. Clearest thinking out there. Thanks.

Amazing work ❤

Arjun, So well done. Breath of fresh air. Facts based analysis. Keep being rational. Thank you for sharing your analysis here for free. You're the best in this space!

Great vid, thank you

Thx for these clear statements! Fully agree with you on basically all points you said. In order to get the remaining 7 bn people to the living standards we enjoy, we really need innovation and new tech since there is probably not enough affordable (!) oil out there, especially over the long run (100+ years). But being a scientist (chemist) by training, I see a particular challenge to substitute oil in the transportation sector over the long run (in an economically feasible way), especially the long distance and heavy freight segments. Regarding petchem demand, there is probably no real substitute for oil and gas anyway, so this isn't even debatable in my opinion. But coming back to the transportation issue, oil and its products have just the almost perfect properties (only big minus is unfortunately their CO2 footprint) for this application: - it is liquid at room temperature/normal pressure which makes its handling the easiest among all the other state of matters - it is thermodynamically stable under the conditions we operate in -> pretty important property for an energy carrier - it has high energy density (11+ kWh/kg) which is particulary important for transportation -> Newtons 2nd law of motion dictates that F=ma, so mass and force are proportional to each other to achieve the same acceleration - it is relatively cheap relative to what value it provides All other possible energy carriers currently discussed for transportation are just inferior: (1) Batteries (all kinds, even future ones): - low gravimetric energy density (only 200-400, maybe 1000 Wh/kg in the future when we are lucky to develop it somehow) - thermodynamically not very stable => self-discharging over time, irreversible side reactions at the electrodes and or electrolyte, stark performance issues when temperatures too low or too high - highly material intensive = high total costs when mining, refining and recycling is considered (2) Hydrogen: - high gravimetric energy density but being a very light gas it needs high pressure and deep cooling to store it = more difficult to handle + more expensive - still costly to produce but probably the current best shot as "non-oil" long distance transport energy carrier (3) E-fuels: - synthetic oil, so would have same properties as normal oil but is very expensive since it not only needs H2 but also captured CO2 to synthesize which is a quite inefficient process overall - if costs could come down significantly, this would be the best way to go but will still be much more expensive than current oil Besides these 3 options, I don't see any other way to create a stable, highly dense, affordable (net CO2-free) energy carrier that is needed for transportation. Reason why this is so hard to achieve and why "innovation and new tech" will probably not really lead to big breakthroughs in this field is because we are fighting the 2nd law of thermodynamics and entropy when it comes to storing energy, particularly at high densities, over time. I call the 2nd law the "ultimate end boss of the universe" since in the end it always wins. In this regard, oil is kind of a natures gift to us that can hold onto its high energy content over time long enough for us to exploit it in an easy manner. We are kind of blinded by our past successes in the semiconductor and computer industry when it comes to our expectation of what innovation can achieve in other fields. All of the discussed options above are in theory applicable today, but what most people are blind towards are their much higher costs for the same amount of energy and value they provide. And this will still be true in 10+ years due to limited technological progress possible since we are reaching the limits of fundamental physical laws. With regards to its costs and benefits, oil is just very cheap and almost impossible to compete against. People need to wake up to this fact and realize that their lifestyle has been subsidized by cheap energy, especially oil for their entire lifes without ever noticing it.

Good work Arjun !! Getting the energy poor of the world more energy is what the focus should be !! Nuclear power gen. needs to be grown globally 💯💥💥👍

Always insightful, Arjun! Thank you for taking the time/effort to educate us all in a very unbiased/data-driven manner. 🙏

A million “thanks” Arjun. Your passion, intelligence and careful analysis is extremely valuable.

the biggest risk to the forecast is that progess on poverty reduction will slow or stop... what does that trend look like? seems like china may be stalling out for example

The leapfrogging meme might apply correctly to consumer devices though. Electric bikes and scooters have made enormous strides and cost orders of magnitude less. The smaller and lighter the vehicle the more electrification makes sense given scaling laws. Energy consumption is way down (and coalar energy etc vs oil) on a km of scooters/bikes.