Superforcasting: How to Predict the Future - Philip Tetlock - Animated Book Review

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In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction", Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner teach you how to predict the future following a few simple rules. Remember to be as specific as possible and to always accept new information to avoid falling into the anchoring pitfall. Great superforecasters and predictors have a growth mindset and persevere through pure grit. Learning how to successfully predict the future comes through the retrieval of information and self intuition that is gained through years of experience in a particular field. I really enjoyed reading this book and gained quite a bit of insight after finishing "Superforecasting". Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner are great authors with a close connection to Daniel Kahneman, the great author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow" which talks all about cognitive functions and incorporate quite a few of his ideas in this book.
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1 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 64

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

I personally believe that on May 12, 2017, this channel will have around 5 million total views and at least 100,000 subscribers.

@MrDjkhubaib 8 лет назад

+Practical Psychology I believe you have the potential for 125,000 Subscribers and 8.3 million views on May 12 2017. Good Luck.

@jacktrow1 8 лет назад

+Practical Psychology The snow ball effect is very real, growth will be very slow in the beginning, but will shoot up very fast in the next 6 months or so with consistent content. The 12th of May is my birthday!!

@jacktrow1 7 лет назад

Lol yes i see, the snow ball effect is exponential once the ball is running, crazy to see it action

@jacktrow1 7 лет назад

Practical Psychology READ THIS! SEE HOW FAR YOU HAVE COME

@MarkShaneHansen 7 лет назад

So in 9 months you already went to 21,3 million views and 650.000 subscribers. Not bad. :D

@23drcharles Год назад

The study of the future goes back to the 1960s. Superforecasting is a utopian response to futurist ideology. This may not be based on historical reality and may lead to super forecasting fantasies.

@paulmarsh3363 7 лет назад

Great Review! You really captured the essence of the book! p.s. I am a superforecaster with the Good Judgement Project.

@PracticalPsychologyTips 7 лет назад

Interesting!

@soulreaperichig0 5 лет назад

By Jan 2020 this video will have about 20,000 views give or take two thousand and your subscriber count will still be under 2 million, probably locked at 1.8 million.

@nunya973 3 года назад

nice very close!

@101325 4 года назад

I predict this video will get more traffic because of Dominic Cummings impromptu interview today.

@sagarhowal9918 7 лет назад

please make review on this book 'Future Babble' by Dan Gardner.

@nickj.446 8 лет назад

I believe that this channel will have 500,000 subs

@muhammadalipour1546 3 года назад

Watching in January 2021 currently you’ve 1.9M subscribers and I would say in next year 2022 you’d have 2.23M subscription.

@NumaTakeda 8 лет назад

I really enjoyed your summary! I will begin my initial forecast: By 9/1/2017 you will have 1,271,696 subscriptions and 53, 777, 680 Views I applied the growth rates of 1.36% subs and 1.48% to subs/views with base of 8,769/233,451. I will try to adjust this forecast and provide more accurate figures, with my cutoff date being 8/31/2017. *note This is a very hasty and initial assessment in which I did not delve into more metrics regarding historical RU-vid publisher/broadcaster growth rates for subs/views.

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

That would be awesomeeee. I'm gonna work hard to make you a great predictor. :D

@bokudensatsujin 8 лет назад

Numa, for my own education did you happen to take note of the video's genre in your estimation of growth rates? What metrics DID you use to derive these rates? Thanks to Practical of course!

@MarkShaneHansen 7 лет назад

Your growth rates were slightly high :)

@dscottutube 6 лет назад

This is an amazing book review. The dynamic infographic brings the book's content to life in an easily understandable manner, allowing the listener to grasp the facts quickly, accurately and totally. A very commendable video and one I will recommend as often as possible. Well done on a great job. Many thanks

@gausstesla3852 3 года назад

Puedes explicarme el libro? Te lo agradecería mucho

@gryan1015 7 лет назад

I can teach you how to become a super forecaster

@felixchang1239 2 года назад

The background music is kind of distracting.

@ignaciodelgado8957 5 лет назад

0:43 “quantum mechanics has joined the server”

@akshay8989 7 лет назад

Exponential organisations - Salim Ismail

@DrustZapat 3 года назад

Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker and Utopia for Realists by Rutger Bregman

@tiosurcgib 4 года назад

This channel will completely morph. It will move away from cartoons and voiceovers as RU-vid becomes saturated with individuals cannibalising each other over an increasingly shrinking terrain. Instead, it will turn to closer personal engagement with its audience in a wider magazine style.

@chapter750 6 лет назад

Enjoyed your video. It is interesting that raw IQ POINTHS ARE SUBJECT TO THE LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS.

@fluxpistol3608 6 лет назад

Obviously anyone from Microsoft is going very to a bias claim against apples success at least in the public sphere. Not the best example.

@srenbro916 6 лет назад

Good video and may I suggest: Psychology And Social Policy Paperback by Peter Suedfeld and Peter Tetlock.

@FernandoOleiro 8 лет назад

Para seguir: Era Melhor: "Pratical Teology, a Ciência da Ponta dos Dedos"!, "A Arte de alguns Artistas que andaram na Escola, foram à Universidade e Aprenderam muito Pouco sobre A Evolução de Darwin"!, " O Mundo já não é a Preto e Branco à muito tempo, mas parece que ainda tem O Preto e O Branco, cada vez mais"!, "Apenas nos estamos Expandindo"!, "O que ensinam as Escolas, se não, Precaução, Previsão e Prevenção, algumas ensinam Teologia, outras Criacionismo e muito poucas, A Evolução"!, "Estamos numa sociedade Capitalista e num Mundo, cada vez mais Globalizado, por Enquanto, para Pior, se O Acaso e a Potencia Humana o permitir ou não puder ser Precavida"!, "Às vezes as Bruxas Acertam, quando Dispõem de alguns Dados"!, "Da Simplicidade à Complexidade, existe um percurso muito longo, A Evolução e a Relatividade"!, "A Polémica continua, a O Preto e O Branco, e em, O Espaço e O Tempo"!.

@cyberhero10 8 лет назад

I think you will be at 150k easy if you keep hustling like this

@creativeclone 3 года назад

May I suggest you to do a book review on The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gwande?

@charmanderpokemon7984 7 лет назад

9000000 or more

@OmerSYayla Год назад

Greeting from I202

@jtbroad 8 лет назад

Let's see, I will guess 837,562 subs and 10 million views. Dream big haha. Nice work on these videos. Addicted as all get out. Maybe try the books 'Rework' and 'Remote', both by Jason Fried. Good reads.

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

+JT Broad You're addicted to my videos? That's super encouraging and awesome! I hope I'll hit that mark! I have been planning on getting 'rework', and I'll look into 'Remote', thanks! :)

@darrianegoh9248 8 лет назад

There is a cartoon show called Simpson. The author of making this show were able to predict the future perfectly. You can find it in RU-vid channels.

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

I'd definitely like to learn more about this :)

@brettquimby3274 8 лет назад

I predict that the world really will need to know what Philip Tetlock has to say about expert predictions with all of that nonsense forecasts out there. Thanks for helping him!

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

+Brett Quimby Thank for watching and commenting! Good luck with your predictions! :)

@pushkarraj1663 7 лет назад

The Book "Autobiography of a Yogi"

@MrDjkhubaib 8 лет назад

Can you review The Will to win by Robert Herjavec.

@PracticalPsychologyTips 8 лет назад

+MrDjkhubaib Ohh, he was on Shark Tank, I'll definitely check any of his books out. Thanks :)

@igotapochahontas 6 лет назад

Recommendation: Becoming the iceman. As much as I would like a copy and would enjoy watching you review it, I'm actually more interested in seeing if my superforecast of your sales and marketing skills showing significant increase afterwards comes true. I was also in sales and marketing and would watch a lot of videos like you post to motivate myself. I've never read becoming the iceman but I do the icebath technique and breathing in it and it has had significant improvements on me psychologically and emotionally and that always increases sales.

@gausstesla3852 3 года назад

Puedes explicarme que significa el hombre de hielo

@igotapochahontas 3 года назад

@@gausstesla3852 demasiado dificil En El espanol. Lo siento. Lo tengo(videos in English) si queres.

@gausstesla3852 3 года назад

@@igotapochahontas o un resumen en inglés. Lo más importante.

@igotapochahontas 3 года назад

@@gausstesla3852 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-hqJZR4d80Do.html