Taiwan has a secret doomsday plan for China 

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Taiwanese here! When I was a conscript in the Taiwanese Army 10 years ago my officer used to tell us about this plan, But we will never do this unless it's absolutely necessary !!! I wish peace upon Taiwan, China and the rest of the world~

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I’m glad I could find this 14 min video with over million views talking about Taiwan’a biggest SECRET

According to a 2017 study by the RAND Corporation, a US think tank, a nuclear strike on the Three Gorges Dam would likely cause it to collapse, resulting in a catastrophic flood that would inundate much of central China. However, the study also found that a conventional strike could also cause significant damage to the dam, depending on the type of ordnance used and the location of the strike. For example, a bunker buster bomb could potentially penetrate the dam's thick concrete walls and damage its internal structure. However, the study found that multiple strikes would likely be required to cause the dam to collapse.

“And while people are not into politics, people are into survival…and when it comes to survival, nothing is contemptible.” …well said!

War is not determined by who is right, but who is left. Very profound indeed.

I feel like a lot of people are forgetting just how strong large amounts of water are. All you need to do is create a crack that allows a dozen gallons per second through, and within a day the entire dam would be destroyed by the force of the flowing water.

I spoke to a Taiwanese General two years ago, and he mentioned the Three Gorges Dam is in plotted solutions of over twenty Taiwanese silos as well as Taiwanese submarines as a target. He said the salve of warheads is unstoppable as many will be fired simultaneously and at least 5 will hit it and its entourage dams.

Thank you. Note that your illustration of the flood after the dam destruction is wrong, as you "flood" the whole basine. If the dam collapses, only downstream areas, lower than the reservoir might be flooded.

the info graphic feels misleading, why would blowing up the dam, flood areas upstream, I understand how downstream areas would suffer and those are the more industrial and valuable parts, but feels a tad bit misleading when you show upstream parts flooding 100's of square kilometers of land. The more realistic thing is that upstream areas would have their water level drop, a great example would be the dam explosion in Ukraine, The reservoir drained, water level upstream from the dam went down, while the areas downstream suffered. As well as the fact that this is such an important target, China would install protection around the dam, but sure, I grant that it is possible and even the mere chance of this happening is a deterant in of it self, still find the video a bit overly sensational.

Two rules of war: 1. There is No such thing as Overkill. 2. If Brute force isn't working, You're NOT using enough.

It may not be useful in preventing an invasion but it might prove useful in persuading China not to use nukes should the invasion go poorly.

Might the weaponization of a water reservoir apply in the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Blue Nile? Filling the reservoir behind the dam as quickly as possible might make the GERD impossible to destroy as the catastrophic release of the full reservoir could overwhelm downstream dams like Aswan and cause floods as far away as Cairo and the Nile delta

Although this plan seems plausible, it is not very practical. The main problem is that the long range cruise missile Taiwan has lacks the payload to deliver a knockout blow. If we look at the Ukraine war, we can see both sides needs at least multiple cruise missile hits on major infrastructure targets to even cause a small amount of damage. The other problem is getting the missiles to their destination and hit the target. China has Taiwan under 24/7 surveillance through their spy satellites, listening positions, and radars, so any major cruise missile launch will be immediately detected by the Chinese military. The missiles will then need to travel all way to the dam through layers and layers of Chinese missile defenses, interceptors, and jamming. Cruise missiles does not have a 100% hit rate even under perfect conditions, so you need at least a handful of missiles to reach its destinations and bypass all the defenses to even have a chance. The chances of a successful missile strike on the Three Gorges Dam is too low unless you are able to achieve air dominance over mainland China.

It's never a secret both to China and Taiwan, I lived in China when I was a kid and I heard of that when I was 8 or 9. The dam is far from TW, India or every direction it may be attacked, and it's huge which makes it difficult to collapse. Also it won't be a huge disaster if it collapse, cuz there still are several huge dams on Yangtze river, which ranks themselves NO.4 NO.6 and No.8 worldwide which will reduce the harm. Besides, even if it been destroyed, it won't be a mutual destruction, I mean, several cities like Wuhan and Nanjing will be destroyed but most part in China will be safe, but it will result in nuclear attacks towards Taiwan immediatly. I don‘t think it's a good idea for TW to do that.

if it was secret we wouldnt know about it

The dam is between 40m (131ft) and 115m (377ft) thick. Would be really interesting to know, how much (and what kind of) ordonance would be required to catastrophically damage it. You'd have to damage the lower, eg thicker, parts to collapse it. Even regarding some pre-existing cracks and rooms inside the dam, 70-80m (250ft) of reinforced concrete is a lot, bunker buster or not

Cixin Liu be like: the deterrence era has begun

I am an engineer and have worked on dams before. I dont think a missile strike could destroy 3 gorges. It would probably not be enough to cause a flood, 3 gorges is so huge, it would need a lot of enormous missiles, I dont know if such a thing even exists outside the relm of nuclear weapons.

It would be insane to believe China doesn't have the air space between Taiwan and the dam protected.

I don't always watch CaspianReport, but when I do it's for Shirvan's one liners.

You know it's really not so secret when you tell everyone about it

That’s alarming. Human life means less and less with each passing day

Three goeges is not a typical dam in the sense we have in the us. It was constructed like a mountain is not the design that holds back rhe water rather the weight that holds back the water. So knowing its importance i doubt any attack would go through and if it did cause a flood, the revenge would wipe the attacker off the map.

There is another problem with this plan that makes it extremely dangerous for Taiwan. Mutually Assured Destruction depends on a capability to hit back at an enemy that initiates a nuclear first strike against you. If the PRC can prevent an attack like this with a nuclear first strike against Taiwan, then Taiwan either needs the ability to launch an attack on the dam with just a few minutes notice, or they need the ability to launch such an attack even after a nuclear strike from the PRC. Otherwise the PRC is heavily incentivized to go nuclear if they think there is even the slightest chance that Taiwan is about to attack the dam.

During WW2 the allies had several failed bombing attempts to take out dams that were critical to the German war effort. Until they developed dam-buster bombs that would skip along the surface of the reservoir right up to the wall of the dam after being dropped by low flying planes. The bombs, more like reinforced barrels, would then sink down behind the wall of the dam and explode at depth, putting maximum pressure on the dam at the lowest point. This allowed all the pressure of the water to help work with the force of the explosion. This was very effective and they blew up several dams key to the German war effort. The damage was so severe to civilians downriver, taking out entire villages, that in the aftermath it was decided that this type of warfare should be outlawed and made a war crime. Back then bombing and other types of warfare was so inaccurate that killing civilians anywhere near the target area was just considered part of war. Unlike today when we are outraged when a bomb or missile goes astray in a warzone by even 100' and hits a civilian structure.

China has long said that attacking the Three Gorges Dam is considered a nuclear strike and will take any measures to counter it

Good Episode .. we need an episode about the Ethiopian GERD and Egyptian army capabilities..

I spent 6 months teaching in Xiaogan and met a member of the PLA airborne division. He was an NCO and still had never jumped out of a plane. He and his colleagues would pay their major so they never had to turn up. He sold hashish to do this. China is wild.

If it’s a Mutually Assured Destruction strategy, then isn’t it important that it not be a “Secret Plan”?

I'm a Chinese-American, a citizen of the United States of course, but I have families back in China, and it'd hurt me both physically and mentally to see my families being wiped out while not offending the political sides of each country... I'm in a extremely tough spot right now. I really do hope this war would never break out, best wishes for peace.

Concrete gravity dams are difficult to damage significantly but 3 Gorges is vulnerable. There is a question concerning it's foundation. All dams need a solid foundation and there is a question about the foundation for the dam and also where the sides of the dam anchor into the hills on either side. This is possibly borne out by the fact that China does not generally allow the reservoir to reach maximum height which could mean that the foundation is not stable enough to handle the increased stress from a full reservoir. So attacking the dam itself probably will not damage it sufficiently to achieve the desired result, attacking the dam and it's anchorages might be sufficient. Water is a powerful force when unleashed, just look at the damage when there are floods in many areas of the world. It is also sufficiently powerful to damage a concrete dam sufficiently to cause massive flooding downstream. Flooding downstream of 3 Gorges Dam is particularly problematic. There was one case, maybe more, of the Chinese government releasing too much water from the dam and causing widespread flooding and damage downstream, and that was a controlled release so it would not require a massive breach of the dam to cause catastrophic damage. So bunker busting warheads that target the foot of the dam along it's entire length could cause failure of the dam. It would be like knocking the legs out from under a chair. Add several more targeting the dam and there should be enough to achieve the desired result. The whole thing about China releasing water to slowly drain the reservoir is a good way to prevent catastrophic flooding, the Chinese government will need to watch how quickly it releases the water or else it will create the flooding itself. And another tactic, once the longer range missiles are available, would be to target the dams upstream of the 3 Gorges at the same time. Failure of even one of those dams could dump enough water into the reservoir to over-top the dam probably resulting in failure of the dam.

The problem with dams, especially large ones, is that they aren't uniformly thick. They typically widen to a foot at the base and contain rooms for workers and turbines. Could you knock out it's ability to produce power? Yes, easily. Turn it into an on demand tsunami? You'd likely need a nuke, a powerful kinetic weapon, or a lot of bunker busters.

Just an o'l Navy man's opinion, but those shipping locks look like a juicy target that would be economically devastating but not a cataclysmic as busting the dam, making it a lot harder for China to justify turning the island into a radio active parking lot. And the shipping locks are a lot softer than the dam it's self!

The water is a problem for the mainland now The Drinking water is so polluted. The mainland is in bad shape!!

Anyone else notice the Buda statue at 3:52 has windows on it's back? That would be a cool place to live/work.

This would be the most stupid plan, making a nuclear capable country desperate and irrational has not ended well historically.

One way to increase the pressure on the three gorges dam would be to destroy dams that are upstream of the river, if there are such structures, I am not sure. And then to target the three gorges dam directly.

0:00: The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest hydropower project, supplying electricity to 20 million people and aiding flood management. 0:34: Taiwanese military planners have suggested attacking the dam to induce mutual assured destruction. 1:42: The consequences of such an attack would be devastating, causing widespread destruction and economic repercussions globally. 8:33: Taiwan is boosting its military spending and doubling its annual missile production target to 497 units. 9:00: The Xiang Xiang 2E missile has a range of 1200 kilometers, while the upgraded unfang supersonic cruise missile has an expected range of 2000 kilometers. 9:24: The amount of firepower needed to deliver a knockout blow is uncertain, with varying opinions on the number of missiles required. Recap by Tammy AI

If the dam ever collapses it will be because of Chinese incompetence and lack of maintenance. Taiwan would never do something like this.

If the US had let Taiwan complete its nuclear deterrence program decades ago, it might have prevented the threat of invasion and world war we face today.

Though admittedly a whole lot smaller than the 3 gorges, during WW2 the British developed a bomb which bounced across the water and was used on the dams in the Ruhr valley. This addresses the issue of dams' inherent resilience as the bombs would sink when they hit the dam wall and detonate at the base causing maximum damage.

Like the meme with Poland pointing to Article 5, Taiwan pointing to the Three Gorges Dam with missles.

I remember there's an entire (mainland China's) military theme TV series (in the 2000s) dedicated to this problem

A catastrophic dam faliour flooding downstream would make the make covid lockdown supply chain issues look like a walk in the park

Shirvan i have been watching your channel for about 8 to 9 years now, and i just have to give you compliments that this has to be the best geopolitics channel that i know of. You present everything in such a way that it is simultaneously very detailed, informative and clear & easy to understand, while also being highly entertaining and i would say even hypnotically captivating. The sound effects you have work to not distract but deepen the concentration on the topic itself. I also have to mention that i much appreciate your cold neutrality in your presentation, it is a very good quality to have. Its what a professional does.

Any attack on three gorges dam would be retaliated with nuclear bomb. Not sure any country would want to test it out.

Why does the graphic show the flooded area going upstream from the dam as well?

No one ever has a good day making an amphibious assault against a well-prepared enemy. China hopefully has someone at the top reminding the others that “one does not simply walk into Mordor” and Taiwan is very much Mordor in this scenario.

The dam is deep into the mainland, will be well protected with AD and would take large amount of precision strikes to damage (look at the Kakhovka dam that had to be mined to be destroyed), so it sounds like daydreaming. Even if such an attack would succeed it would have little relevance to a military conflict, but would mean huge civilian losses - something that would greatly undermine any western support in such a conflict. But that does not seem to bother the author of this article. But promoting what is basically a Ponzi scheme based on artworks seems to be perfectly good idea. Apparently even 1.3M subscribers is not enough.

We should just collaborate the wave in relation to the shield; like antimissle system and ramp up the power to tectonic plates, it would take decades to out think that defense and also superbadass, like driving an island!

It is not a secret if it is shown in public! What we see here, Chinese are also seeing that lol! It is not possible for Taiwan to attack the 3 Gorges Dam, because it is deep in the country.

A deterrent only works if you tell people about it, otherwise there's no point in having it. The Soviets did something similar in the '80s (see the book The Dead Hand) with the intent of dissuading the USA from attempting a swift decapitation strike. But because the Soviets were so paranoid, they kept it a secret. Yes this was the plot of Dr. Strangelove and yet somehow they made the same mistake two decades after the movie came out.

“Ultimately some actions might be worse than a crime, they might be a mistake “ - these little sayings of geopolitical wisdom are always my favorite part of the videos! After the analysis of course!

Also, what are the odds that the damn has hidden structural flaws, water seepage, geological deformation around the dam?

Finally a video that mentioned the 1938 yellow river flood! It’s impossible to find a video about on RU-vid. And it’s so relevant to recent events and so deadly!

That's a dam good plan.

And that ladies and gentleman is what we call a warcrime.

WOw it's so secret it's publicly known by 8 billion people!!

Hitting Three Gorges is the most obvious move given its importance and vulnerability. I can’t imagine it’s secret to anyone who’s thought about the issue for two minutes.

This would be a war crime

Thank you so much for your Comedy, very entertaining

Wouldn't that be like the largest scale war crime ever committed?

If the war breaks out Taiwan has no chance against PRC. They should surrender with conditions and live with peace

3 things for context: 1) To understand the scope of the disaster if the 3 gorges dam ever failed; The entirety of the population of the United States is about 380 millon and Canada is about 30 million, meaning a death toll of 400+ million to put into perspective is like wiping every single person in the US and nearly all of that in Canada off the face of the Earth 2) Needless destruction of civilian infrastructure is today considered a war crime; Civilian infrastructure such as dams can no longer be targeted by militaries unless very specific circumstances allow for it such as if the dam was being used as a base of operations in command and control for the adversary in question And even then a competent military commander would recognize the threat of the potential dam and be very precise in their targeting to limit the structural damage 3) Whoever ordered the complete destruction on the dam would be the newest mass murderer in history; A 400 million loss of life would make the Austrian painter and the Soviet crime boss, and the Chinese communist leader be regulated to water droplets in the newest ocean of blood and the conflict from that would surpass WW2 as the deadliest conflict in the history of mankind

Flooding is so great because there isn't proper drainage. Poor build construction!!

Fascinating Analysis!!!

The ecological damage from blowing that dam would be utterly cataclysmic

Why would destroying the dam cause damage upstream of it? I think you might be highlighting the entire drainage basin instead of the actual affected area...

Go for it brother, scare the Dragon too.

Don't you think the Chinese are aware of this threat? Don't you think the Chinese will certainly prepare for this scenario with sufficient air defences. In spite of this scenario, would Taiwan actually do something as insane as this. Rather Taiwan like Mainland wishes to live in the previous slow peaceful merging. This would be a US agitated act and would have catastrophic consequences.

“And while people are not into politics, people are into survival…and when it comes to survival, nothing is contemptible.” I Love how seamlessly Shirvan integrates adds in his videos. BRAVO !!!

There are lots of caveats to this plan, it's like 1,200 km from the possible points of launch, it's surrounded by mountains and other terrain features, it requires a lot of explosive material to be demolished, and there would be air defenses and interception atemps from the beginning of the attack. There's also like one thousand more immediate and easy targets just less than one hundred kilometers from the possible launch points, warehouses, refineries, bridges, highways, ports, shipping facilities, military bases, including airbases and naval bases.

We’ve had bombs designed specifically to take out dams since WW2. Taiwan is more than technologically advanced enough to make one and put it on a high precision cruise missile.

aint it a war crime if the dam is destroyed causing civilian casualties? Are we gonna ignore that ethical question since taiwan is with the "good guys"?

"War does not determine who is Right, only who is Left." Haha I love a subtle and smart sense of humor! Kind regards from Sweden!

As a resident of Taiwan, let's hope war can be avoided

This video presents it as China wouldn't know that.

Before the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, seven nuclear bombing dam simulation experiments were carried out. Resisting nuclear bombs is really not just talk. Even if the Three Gorges Dam is hit by a nuclear weapon, it will not collapse. It is nothing more than opening a "big gate" on the dam that cannot be closed, and will not pose too much threat of flooding downstream. In addition to the strong anti-strike capability of the Three Gorges Dam itself, our country also has a strict air defense system deployed in its surrounding areas. The basic work of the air defense personnel and weapons and equipment responsible for protecting the Three Gorges Dam is to take the Three Gorges Dam as the center, and carry out evacuation and deployment sequentially from the inside to the outside according to the Army Air Defense Force, Air Force Air Defense Force, and Air Force Aviation Force. The first is the anti-ballistic missile defense system. In the air defense system, my country has deployed phased array radars, high-altitude detection radars, and various electronic warfare systems, and has set up three air defense networks. The second is the three-dimensional interception system in the atmosphere. The main force responsible for this layer of defense tasks is various types of surface-to-air missiles, individual air-to-air missiles, various types of anti-aircraft guns, and various types of PLA combat aircraft. The Three Gorges Dam is located in the interior of China. Any military weapon that wants to break through China's multi-layered and impenetrable three-dimensional defense system is a dream to attack the Three Gorges Dam. Anyone who dares to touch our Three Gorges Dam is tantamount to starting a nuclear war.

it would disproportionally harm civilians, offcourse it is no different than having a nuclear program

Taiwan is kind of like China's Cuba

You don’t think China can intercept missiles, bombers?

we ve seen same thing happened in nova kachovka. huge dam was partially destroyed and villages were flooded up the roofs. but there were not so many causalties and in this case i think depending on terrain the reault would be similar. not much damage. if dan would collapse in one shot as a whole than the wave would have an impact, otherwise you can see how water flows through a hole. nothing "dramatic" so again execution is a key and wety unlikely such a dam could be wiped out with one huge salvo.

only Caspian Report can make such serious and cold videos and then do an ad on raid shadow legends or something

"it is an undeniable and may I say fundamental quality of man that when faced with extinction, every alternative is preferable."

I hope some day this channel can return to historical videos

how can it be a secret doomsday plan if your publishing documentation on it?

Didn't watch the video but when your secret plan is on RU-vid someone likely made countermeasures against it

You don't have to precisionally targets the dams concrete, What you just need to do is just let a pressure of water go big to the point that it can't hold it off... for example an explosion from its base, a shockwave or a quake....

this is a war crime. I doubt they would do this, even in the most extreme circumstances.

Does anyone remember the name Möhne ? The Möhne Dam was, I believe, 80+ feet thick at it's base, and it was breached by just two 10,000 lb bombs which exploded just 9 m underwater. For the 2 bombs that did the breaching, the cement was perforated in the thinner upper section, but severe cracks were created below the level of the explosion, As the waters rushed through the breach, these some of these cracks merged and the breach increased in the vertical dimension. A couple key issues to remember - the Dambusters bombs of WWII were not shaped charges by physical design. They did use the water to some extent, but a more modern shaped explosive can deliver a much higher effective blow than the drum-shape of the Vickers Upkeep. - who is to say the explosives must be delivered by air? Is it difficult to believe that a 20-40k explosive charge could not be hidden in the keel of a large barge, somewhere on the 1000 mile impoundment above the Three Gorges Dam? or under a log-raft? - The three Gorges Dam is anything but solid. Concrete, in great dimensions, takes an exceedingly long time to set. The Hoover Dam is forecast to take at least 125 YEARS to gain it's ultimate strength ... Three Gorges was completed in 2003. It is far from being a solid mass of concrete. Not yet. The task of breaching this dam is significantly different from the 'fable' that is put forth by many in this comment section. It is a big, tough nut ... but not nearly as tough as many here seem to indicate.

A dozen of manuverable re-entry vehicles (MARVs) may be the answer but those are expensive to build a maintain and only ballistic missiles can deliver them.

You need to consider these two things. 1.Taiwan has US and its ally Israel support. It gives a special edge in weapons and also VETO power in UN. 2. China can empty dams but what about nuclear reactors ?

I believe that France had a stated policy during the cold war that they had designed their nuclear deterrence such that it could destroy more Soviets than the number of French citizens so any exchange would be a guaranteed relative loss for the USSR. I must imagine that China is keenly aware of the risks of the dam and has invested heavily in air defense for it. I hope we never find out.

Bye now the Taiwan government has figured out how to destroy that dam. Giving enough time most governments could figure this out.

I would think detonating cruise missiles/bombs in the water behind the dam might have more destructive potential, using the weight of all that water as a force multiplier. I mean that dam has already moved on it's own...

”Some actions might be worse than a crime, they might be a mistake." That seems to be applicable to current state far too often. That needs to be a proverb.

Taiwan is not likely to resort to such extreme measures unless it is on the brink of disaster, which would probably mean that the PLA already has a large force fighting on Taiwanese soil. Under those conditions, Beijing might well hesitate to use nuclear weapons in Taiwan.

MAD in CCP China against MAD in Tiawan. Brilliant! Who wants to go first?