I've noticed that there seem to be wildly divergent views on FSD. Some people rave about it, claiming virtually zero interventions, while others say it drives like a teen on their first driving lesson. I'm guessing that the reality is somewhere in the middle.
Tasha's point about a legacy company throwing in the towel and licensing FSD is spot-on. The software and technology is hard, and the cultural hurdles may be even bigger.
@@darylfoster6133 It was in reference to the Cyber Cab coming home autonomously. Did you just jump straight to the comments without watching the video?
Launch with fully autonomous with "backup driver" (like early way): Q4 2024 (in multiple cities, 10-20 cities easy) Launch with no backup driver: 2H 2025 (initially in limited geographies, few cities, 1-5 cities)
That's pushing the boundaries of "regulatory approval". . Tesla can say they think is ready. . They can't say "use it as if it's ready" That's just opening a can of worms. . Go to regulators with the data. Ask why it CAN'T be approved. If they can't provide a good reason.... They have to approve it. . If they try to deny the evidence, compare to other systems which *do* have Level 3 (ish).
Who is going to keep robos clean for each fare? Will be a total nightmare when one pulls up and there’s trash, baby throw up, etc. and the person has to waste time waiting for the next one which is hopefully clean.
I believe BYD is the one FSD oem licensee that Tesla is in discussions. The recent Chinese FSD approval seems to need a large local partner to get thru the internal politics.
@@donbreartonii1353Tesla can get a cut of every byd vehicle sold with Fsd. Byd Selling Tesla Fsd would cost byd very little apart from having to buy Tesla ai hardware . And most future cars will need ai hardware anyway
"Large local partner"? I would say that meeting was a great Indication that they *HAVE* "got through the local politics"? . I mean, if you have the "local Politicians" on your side...?
Don't worry about China.... They have it worked out. . Be more concerned about the obstructive and backbiting quagmire in the US where even an agreed plan can charge on a whim, or with a change of "tie color".
Tesla's stock is stuck in a debilitating downtrend and looks just attractive for a long-term investment once the short-term volatility and smoke settle. Right now i'd just like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $500,000 or less..
I think you guys forgot that Tesla is working on wireless EV charging. It has been reported that the Tesla Cybertruck has hidden hardware for wireless charging. The Cybertruck's service manual reveals that its high-voltage battery pack has connectors labeled for an inductive charger. This could be why they are scaling back on their super charger deployment.
Far more likely that the other companies "pulling back" meant that Tesla has sufficient chargers for their own cars with the small number of others using the network. . They are going to complete projects already started, upgrade existing sites and fill gaps in the network. (Ref X post) . *When* others return (if they don't just disappear) and *when* they contribute (rather than saying "we're in" then pulling back) you'll see Tesla raise the game again.
Cathy Woods and TEAM is friggin awesome!! Truly an "AMAZING" lady!! Congrats Ms. Woods !! You and your team are "financial SUPERSTARS" when it comes to TESLA!! Greetings from the shores of Lake Huron, Ontario- CANADA!! GIDDYUP!!
They'll be awesome when the stock price at least partially reflects their wild predictions. Until then, it's all just talk. Other than their Tesla call in 2019, ARK's track record is abysmal.
@@rogerstarkey5390 All the S3XY are viable taxis, not as profitable as proposed 'Cybertaxi' platform but plenty profitable enough. Some cities are already ready. But a host of other things make 8/8 seem unlikely, mainly FSD itself.
100,000 miles per year is 274 miles per day, or 11.5 miles per hour. Every single day. Bulk of the demand would be during rush hours then much less demand the rest of the day. How many miles does the average Uber/taxi driver cover in a shift?
I’m already using a garage door open that connects with the Tesla that opens and closes my garage door when I leave and opens it when I get about 30 feet from the house on the way home. It was only $ 30.
As a name, Cyber Cab might fit more regions of the world (hail a cab vs. hail a taxi)? Also, Cybertruck has minimal Tesla markings, so 3rd party fleets branding also work better? Reduce thickness of stainless steel for Cybercab for scalability? A compromise for manufacturing speed but still gain some rigidity, durability and weight savings?
Tesla likes vertically integration. Why would they give a cut to another cybercab fleet operator when the profit from selling a cybercab will be small compared to the income from the cyber fleet
Everything will be connected so the car ca open the garage itself when it needs charging. Can also park above a wireless charging plate when it is produce, highways with wireless chargers. Snake charger.
$1/mile is a no go. I believe Elon said $0.18/mile. I'm sure when it starts, it could be $1/mile, but city usage, it's great, but not for everyday people who travels 30 to 40 miles. That would be $80 both ways for one day just to go to work. Definitely not worth it. $0.18 /mile would be about $15 per day, not bad if you save on car purchase, maintenance, electric, insurance, etc. One year would be $2160 spend assuming 12k miles per year. Owning a tesla would cost, just insurance is $1200 + cost of car (assume $40k/10 years = $4k) or $5200 per year versus $2160 or you could buy the Tesla robotaxi and let it make money for you.
There are a few assumptions which are almost impossible to meet right now. Full FSD within 2-3 years (how long has Elon been promising this, 10 years?). I reckon full level 5, will longer than 5 years and one fully compliant with regulations and safety probably at least 10 years. Then maybe another 6-8 players will also reach that within that time frame with some cheap Chinese manufacturers. So I'm not bullish a breakout by Tesla to justify a $2000 dollar stock price.
Re “how will Robotaxi (Cybercab) charge without humans?” Does this explain why Tesla acquired the wireless charging company / technology? Perhaps a future product where we just wire a charging pad in a parking spot and the car navigates to it to recharge (like my iRobot).
Who is charging the robo taxi? That is 273 miles per day which is 1.5 charging sessions. You L2 charger will eat up 10hours a day charging your robo taxi.
Why couldn't an individual simply buy a Tesla Model 3 outright, then rent it out themselves as a robotaxi? How would that affect Tesla's revenue stream?
My question is where are all the new fares going to come from? I don’t see tens of thousands of people looking for taxis and Ubers that they can’t find. Or I will just dilute share for maybe the next 5-10 years, no? People are going to want to keep their cars for a long time. Hmmm
Authority should embrace autonomous vehicle, imagine we can stop criminal car remotely, no more hit and run cases, no more robbing and run cases, no more kidnap and run, autonomous vehicle isn’t just for road safety, but also society safety.
Tasha I couldn't message you directly on X so just have to let you know here. I'm an MD btw. The right side of your mouth seems to move more than the left. This could be from a neurological condition...just in case you weren't aware so you can get it checked by a physician.
You are not taking into consideration how disrespectful and entitled most Americans are. If there is no driver to babysit, these robo taxis will all get trashed. People drinking and smoking, having sex and who knows what else. The cars could get scrapped for parts or strip of hardware. I think it's going to be a flop.
I dont understand the celebration of the china FSD approval. Its like investing in the first elevator company that has elevators without an operator. If it works and is safe it will be adopted everywhere be cause if a country doesn't adopt it there is a tremendous cost for that country. If you free up a part of the workforce they can go and do other jobs increasing the productivity of the country. And making transport cheaper makes the population richer in terms of standard of living. So I dont understand all the worry about regulators.
Try having a conversation on raising Aark price. Or is Ark invest profit bottom line just for the company. Are you ever going to address the elephant in the room?
car leasing comapnies are done if robot taxis are reliably everywhere, they are bitching about teslas resell value, with robot taxi, you can do car hopping than keeping the same car, it the price per mile is really that low, it could potentilly impact short distance flight as well
I think that if a Tesla can go out for hours and drive people around as a taxi, it will be able to open the garage, park, and close the garage. Then the robotic charging arm plugs in.
I don't think Insurance for the user will be more expensive, as Tesla will have to take on liability for the Robotaxi network. Charging will be done by the user when it needs it. It'll just drive home and charge. My Model X can open the garage door by itself through home link.
@@VictorCeccato Lol. They have to. Else there will be no Robotaxi. If they are responsible / cause of an accident, they are liable regardless what the insurance document says.
@@VictorCeccato You would have to be an idiot to pay for insurance when Tesla is in control of the vehicle. That's like saying you should pay insurance for your airplane flights. If it crashes, it's Tesla's fault, so Tesla pays the bill.
The $numbers for autonomous ride hale don't make sense me. Still cheaper for me to own my own suv. 50 miles round trip to work every, day 20 days a month and not counting any weekends grocery trips, that's 1000 per month minimimum. With my SUV annualized operating cost broken by month is $884. Minus any significant repairs like failed drive train.
If you don't have a car (or "Autonomous Cab) with A full sensor suite able to collect data before, during and after an incident including: Vision (video) Acceleration / Deceleration Speed, G force, Road markings, signal indications, Position, speed and direction of other vehicles, And a virtual display of the scenario ... You're going to be on the wrong end of the insurance "claim" in FAR more cases than not. . If your vehicle can also "ping" others in the area and essentially ask "what did you see?" So much the better. . If there's a ... 5G network connecting the vehicles, and an AI system that "recognises" when it *sees* an accident then sends it's "witness report" to another vehicle of its type involved in the incident... That's going to move the insurance needle. . (Btw, wasn't there a recent patent application for a 5g network system?)
Seems like Tesla is planning to build a new car model specifically designed to be a Robotaxi that will have no steering wheel. If it's true, are you sure they will allow older models with the steering wheel to participate in the Robotaxi network?
I've never run a cab or Uber, but what about cleanliness? What if the previous customer leaves the robotaxi a mess? Something to think about and probably something that's already been thought about.
You pay by account. (Credit card) When you open the account, you sign a declaration that if you dirty it, abuse it or damage it, you pay the inspection, cleaning and down time. You're on camera while in the vehicle AND as you leave. Refuse to pay? You're walking.
People will have rating system, if you dirty a Robotaxi, their rating goes down and the price of their rides increase. Also the owners of Tesla's who put their cars on the Tesla robotaxi network could elect to have 4 Star or 5 Star rated customers only allowed to have a ride in their Tesla. Customers will want to make sure they keep a good rating or they won't be able to use it. So they'll want to keep the car clean when using the service.
@@peterfireflylund The camera can't see everything. What if the person has muddy shoes? It also can't detect odors. What if a smoker gets in the car, and transfers the odor from their clothes to the car's upholstery?
Interesting discussion thanks. IMHO I thought that public acceptance of Robotaxis would be crucial, just as it was on the eve of Atlantic flights after the Charles Lindbergh crossing served to ease apprehensions about flying over a large expanse of water. I feel that a couple of coast-to-coast journeys without intervention are necessary, particularly in the light of the recent FSD disconnect after the Tesla vehicle hit a pothole.
Hope American legacy company releases FSD before China. Musk likely wants to make them compete to launch first, as well as get other manufacturers on board?
Imo you-all are ignoring how much work is required to solve, or account for, all the issues that are still to be addressed in the last x% of FSD. The number of interventions have lessened but how many of those drives took place in good weather conditions? For example: I can drive my car in a heavy downpour or in near white out conditions. Can FSD?
… I don’t see what’s the problem with the garage door opening/not opening. My model three can open (and close) the garage door. It’s been doing that since November 2018.
My take is that Tesla feels like it has enough stations, at least in the US. Now they will simply increase the number of Superchargers in the highest use stations. Having larger stations should be more economical as opposed to a larger number of small stations.
Commercial grade robotaxis (stainless steel exterior, durable & washable interior) with Tesla bot attendants to maintain the fleet would seems to address most common daily needs for a fleet.
@@allangraham970 My thought was Ford has the power and will to buy. Gets them into profitable EV and robotaxi game. They have the distribution network to put in chargers and have people look after the cars. Tesla gets a ready made purchaser of said taxis, without having to manually manage them, and locations to add superchargers/inductive chargers right across the world. Possible or not?
Batteries in Tesla’s are a structural element. They cannot be easily removed because they are expected to last a million miles. Basically they last forever.
@@Burgermonster Tesla reports that 12% battery range degradation at 200,000 miles. This is confirmed by Tesloop (an early high mileage shuttle service using Tesla) and Tesla app providers. As you might expect it's dependent on a number of factors, but it's safe to say the batteries in modern EVs (those with a thermal management system) will match or outlast a conventional ICE.
@@Burgermonster Dahn has NCM dual electrolyte cells on test at 4 million miles atm. When used in typical private urban cars charged from 30-70% there is no appreciable degradation. CATL has a million mile warranty and BYD million kilometre warranty on LFP cells. Recurrent Auto recent survey shows negligible ex-car battery pack sales for Tesla. Farzad from Tesla warehouse reports very few pack replacements. Dutch/Belgium database from early Model S days shows 300-500 mile ranges for vast majority. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-rOAYjcO6kao.html docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=0
@@jimcarroll8977 that sounds pretty good but I'd be interested to know how quickly it degrades thereafter. I don't think it degrades completely linearly ( I hope that's a word).
