If you want to try to win that $15 Million this summer, do it by drafting your best ball rosters EARLY to get the best value possible on these rookies before their ADPs rise! When you use promo code BRETT at play.underdogfantasy.com/p-brett-kollmann with any deposit, they will MATCH that deposit up to $100 so you can get extra entries into Best Ball Mania 4! Time Codes: 0:01 It's Dynasty Season! 1:28 Tier 1 - Bijan Robinson 3:26 Tier 2 - Roschon, Charbonnet, and Gibbs 16:13 Tier 3 - NINE more talented RBs! 37:46 Tier 4 - Role players with limited touches 45:38 Tier 5 - Guys I probably won't take 47:27 Drafting running backs is really hard
i like roschon a lot (and not as high on gibbs as most people), but when it comes to dynasty fantasy football....... its just too difficult to rank a 4th round running back #2. especially when hes going into a backfield where foreman almost ran for 1K yards and herbert averaged 5.7 a carry last year. disagree with him being #2 when it comes to dynasty, but respect the conviction
The one criticism I have toward the Roschon analysis is that the per attempt value can be too biased in his favor because he is getting a significantly lower workload while also benefiting from running behind Robinson, coming in on favorable downs, and getting tired college players trying to stop him. I don’t think Roschon is bad but I think tier 2 is too high considering the talent of the class around him
Last time he did a video on a Lions RB Kerryon Johnson got hurt 2 weeks later and was never the same 😂. The Kollman curse is nothing to mess around with. We don’t want his voodoo messing with any of our players
Devon Achane has a good chance to go off because of the injury concerns ahead of him. Can’t tell you how many times Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr would come out of a game for an injury down the stretch of the year. I think a rotation of these 3 they’ll cycle through them all to keep them healthy
I think Bijan is more akin to someone like CMC rather than Saquon, tho I will acknowledge the the fact that he has much more power than CMC which allows Bijan to run more physical. But going off of measurements/results from Bijan's combine he is way more similar to CMC's combine measurements from size to 40 times, while Saquon, who ran a faster time in both attempts, was an inch taller and over 15 pounds heavier. So I believe he will be a more aggressive CMC.
Bijan Robinson AND Tyler Allgeier in Arthur Smith's offense 😍😍 With guys Like Huntley and Patterson as well... Will Ridder actually need to throw the ball at all next year? :P
Also I like Gibbs cause it feels like a guaranteed that he’s going to get 60 Catches and around 200 Carrie’s which would have him as a mid to high end rb 2 and plenty of potential to boom if he can score more than 8 tds
I think he's discounting swift was purposefuly fazed out of the offense last year but the years before swift was almost exclusively the RB in the redzone similar to how Kamara/ekeler were used. Those guys open up a lot of options in the redzone besides running it down the middle.
I could very well be galaxy-braining this, but because your (Brett) OL analysis is some of the best in the business I pay a lot of attention to your RB analysis. So hyped to be back into Kollmann fantasy season!
I think the point is not invalid that Gibbs has competition for targets because ARSB has been primarily a possession receiver, but "at best" he's the number 2 option for 6 weeks while Jamo is hurt, which is the same situation as Bush had. Yes, Jamo will come back, but statistically should we actually expect anything from Jamo?
My take on Achane is very different but that's because I have very little faith in Mostert and Wilson. Maybe I'm a little high on him but I think Achane beats out both of them in that backfield... only time can tell for sure though, of course.
Even if he beats them out though it still seems like his best possible outcome is being 1A in a 3 committee backfield. Definitely value in that but really caps his ceiling
I disagree on Achane. He won't put his shoulder down and run over a linebacker but he can set guys up to force arm tackles which he can and does break. He's a lot more than pure speed.
I’m a big fan of the breakdown & the reasoning you give through this, even with some of what I differ on. Very insightful as always. Also at 4:39 I’m 90% sure that’s Koolaid & not Gibbs. I blame the SEC copyright for that mistake though lol
I'm very high on Gibbs, but I mostly agree with your take on him. I think he's going to be really effective, in both the run & pass games, and have a really good yards per touch averages. But Montgomery is gonna be the featured back, and the touches for Gibbs, especially early on in the season, aren't going to be frequent enough to justify a high fantasy draft spot. For the actual football games, I believe he's going to help elevate an offense that was already very good. His fantasy value, however, is going to be limited, especially outside of PPR leagues.
I have 2 questions. 1.If the Titans trade derrick henry do you think that tyjae will be the lead back? 2. How early do you think sean tucker would have been drafted if he was fully healthy and do you see a world where he beats rachaad white out as the lead back in Tampa if he is healthy?
I think youre underestimating how much of a role with Kenny in Seattle, theres a lot of hype around here and hes got some of the "getting" skinny skills, ive ever seen and he does have some power and has run over SEC backers But i do think youre right that hell be best used on 3rd down
I enjoy seeing the differences here between dynasty and Redraft leagues Fantasy pros mock draft sim has Bijan going at 1.01 1/2 ppr sometimes which is INSANE
CEH isn’t a good parallel imo. Different caliber of draft investment. Much better receiving metrics. Instead of being a mediocre athlete, Gibbs is an elite one. Not saying he’ll hit, it just wouldn’t be for the same reasons as CEH.
people in dynasty love pass catching RBs but the guys who are more consistent fantasy players are the between the tackles runners and good tackle breakers.
What is be interested to know it's how much of Roschon's stats came against 1st team, came when the game was still competitive or did he get his stats in cleanup duty.
Dalvin Cook will not be a Minnesota Viking post June 1st. Dewayne McBride will instantly become our goal line back and short down yardage back. He definitely doesnt have starting back upside for fantasy but I think theres some major TD upside for him. We picked up Josh Oliver for a reason. Our short yardage running last year was pathetic. We have made moves to ensure we can pound the rock when necessary.
I do think that Walker is the better prospect to charbonnet..... but I don't think it's that far off. I loved the pick. I think they have a two headed monster (plus kenny mcintosh) to compliment a three headed monster at receiver. Man this offense should be explosive.
@@jacksonswinkle3283 I’m in a 32-team dynasty, Foreman is my only RB 😭 …I’ve got the 15th rookie pick, could take Roschon and double down on this backfield. Bad offense though, and Fields will vulture some goal line work, not to mention Khalil…
I drafted Jahmyr Gibbs 1.05 (SF) and I'm pretty confident. Yes, he may not get carries inside the 5 but last year Swift had several pretty nice 10-20 yard Touchdowns and I'm betting on Gibbs to get these touches as well and carry it over the line as well.
Achane, at sub 200 lbs is obviously no Earl Campbell, and things are different against NFL LBs and safeties, but hommie has pretty good contact balance and shiftiness for a "track star".
I think Brett is underestimating Gibbs role in The Lions offense. Swift had 8 TD’s last season for The Lions and he wasn’t healthy for a lot of the season. If Gibbs is healthy he’s gonna get more touches than Swift had. I won’t be surprised if he has 10+ TD’s
"Trent Richardson is a great example of what to look for in a draft prospect. He has ideal speed, strength and vision from the back field. These traits combine to make Richardson a top five player on my draft board and my pick as the No. 1 running back in college football." -- Matt Miller on October, 21, 2011. I wouldn't bet my career on ANY player making it in the NFL.
@@DirectFireDave We know that in hindsight but it was never an issue before the draft. Predictions can only be made using the info we know at the time and not future revelations.
Very based Gibbs take, watching him in person at Texas was underwhelming. Competent defenses will bottle him up bc he can’t bang between the tackles, he relies solely on breaking runs to the outside and excellent lead blocks.
Lions O-Line is gonna open up some massive holes for him to get some space in the middle of the field. There’s a reason why Swift was averaging 10ypc before he got hurt
I traded away my 1st before last season started thinking i had a chance at the ship and it ended up being 1.01... but hey at least I got Dawson Know out of it... 😮💨 Dynasty is fun 🙃
Its my first year and I’m taking over a bad team. It’s tough for me to picture myself taking a high pick on an rb who’s sharing the backfield with Kenneth Walker. Maybe he gets injured but for the future? Am I the only one?
Hi Brett, im a falcons fan and I was just wondering if Tyler Allegier really good rookie season will affect Robinson fanstasy wise...I was suprised you didn't even mention him. Anyway always great videos!
There's a bit of historical precedent that makes Bijan Pretty safe: Teams often feel compelled to justify high pick RB's by feeding them touches (Production is highly correlated with draft position, Dwain McFarland has done some studies on this if you're curious) and RB's with very little invested in them (in the case of Allgier, he's only a 5th round pick) historically have very little job security- no matter how good they were. Just Look at what happened with James Robinson in Jacksonville or Phillip Lindsay with the broncos. The only real concern would be Patterson stealing passing down work from Bijan, but Bijan will probably be as close to a workhorse that we get in the modern NFL.
@@angelcalderon5680 ohhhh I see thank you...I kinda feel bad for Allegier then :/ He had potential, hopefully we can keep him as a good second back still
The Saints ran a lot of inside running plays, but most of it was probably power running plays. In the post draft interview Miller himself acknowledged he wanted to work on his outside zone running. I think he’s going to be successful in our scheme.
Devon Achane is the RB3 on his own team? I feel like thats a shitty take. No chance he plays less than mostert and jeff wilson... He also is not knocked down by a gust of wind. Watch his tape, hes pretty damn physical for his size
2 guys in committees over the guy drafted 12th overall whos also in a commitee. Its just not a great argument. I respect out of the box takes but you really didnt make a good enough argument for it.
@@ryanreynolds192 yes I heard him. I apologize for not trusting his usage predicting crystal ball. There are 3 guys who could all see goaline carries on the bears not including there rushing qb. I will take top 12 capital over 4th round capital and a crystal ball every day. Draft capital also correlates heavily to usage. Oh and btw the guy currently comparing him to Alvin Kamara is his head coach the guy who coached kamara for 4 years. Not saying I agree with the comp but you can bet your ass they aren’t just going to send him to the bench every time they get inside the 20. Btw I love roschon, and I don’t dispute his size and potential usage but he’s a 4th round pick in a crowded backfield and we have no idea how it will shake out. Having him over a top 12 pick is absolutely delusional. If it was just talent eval fine but this is reaching too far.
Wow wow wow, is Gibbs being taken second overall in a redraft or a rookie draft? Even in a rookie draft it seems to me most leagues are going Bijan, Bryce, and then either Stroud or Richardson. Suppose it depends if it's a superflex league or not but still. Second overall in a redraft would be insane. I still think Gibbs has home run potential on the screen, out, and pitch plays
you cannot extrapolate underdog ADPs to espn, yahoo, sleeper, etc. The format and strategy are completely different. Bijan is going 7-9th pick in non underdog leagues.
