You want the brutally honest truth? The reason the passing is down is because teams are wildly overpaying mid QBs as "franchise QBs" and then giving them absolute dick to protect them on the O-line, absolute dick to run routes and absolute dick calling plays.
yeah but even those 3 are quite different from each other, how many elite schemers have ever been in the league at one time anyway? Sure maybe it used to be more diverse, but the majority of offenses were bad to mediocre anyway with only a handful of elite ones. I dont think scheme is singlehandedly to blame for the quality of offense
You are clueless. The issue is way too much shotgun formation and easy tells that give away the type of play being run. That’s why under center with running back lined up right behind is so valuable. It maximizes the uncertainty of the play being run. You can do everything well from under center and linebackers are more likely to bite on runs. Running out of shotty is ridiculous and doesn’t give the RB a full head of steam. We are looking at almost 80% shotgun formation in the league and many guys who can not properly do an under center dropback. Shotgun has its merits usually 4 wide so QB can read the defense quicker from start of the play to finish. Meanwhile defenses are disguising more than ever and playing exotic partial man/zone schemes. Forcing everything short. Bracketing players. Huge fast pass rushers that are creating oline mismatches. QBs that CANT adjust their protection. The league has finally caught up to the passing game. QB market about to burst. Only mahomes is worth a damn right now.
@@mikehatten5738 Allen is 100% worth his deal. So far this season, Kyler has been proving his deal was worth it. Lamar is worth his deal. You're delusional if you think Mahomrs is the only good QB out there
I never realized how much QB talent I watched growing up. Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, Rivers, Cam Newton, Not so Dangeruss. Stafford and Eli have 3 super bowls combined. Even the more mid QB's -- Romo top 25 all time passing TD's and Carson Palmer was top 15 in passing yards.
That was the thing. Brady, Manning, Brees, & Rodgers were the top of that era, but a good chunk of teams had a franchise QB they were comfortable leading their teams for 5-10 years, including Ryan, Flacco, Dalton, Cutler, even Alex Smith had a solid back half of his career.
Truly the golden era. Qbs who understood the game at a high level rather than relying on their freak legs to bail them out of a situation they can't process quickly enough
Ayiuk looked like his 2022 version where he dropped a ton. I'll never forget that gimme jimmy G thru that I could have caught 19 times out of 20. BA needs to be 2023 BA that is why he was paid.
What annoys me is that instead of letting the pendulum eventually swing the other way the NFL will probably pass more rules to make it even harder to play defense
It's a little different this time, because the passing game being down is more on the offense than the defense. If you take the last 2 years for example, we saw a shift in how teams play the games, the best teams aren't necessarily heavy run teams, but they try to take the lead early and just try to run on their opponents for the rest of the game. We live in a World currently, where the best way to win isn't to ask your QB to throw the ball 50 times, teams are completely fine with their QB throwing 20 times a game and having 150 Yards if they can just take the lead early, and run the ball on their opponents. We saw it yesterday, and last year with the 3 best teams in the league, the Ravens, the Chiefs and the Niners. The gameplay was simple, start strong, run the ball and rely on your defense, and currently it's just the best way to win.
God, I miss those days. You don't have to look that far back to see them either. 2010 games and ones today look completely different. Almost like you're watching different sports.
@zachschendt7201 you must be Gen Z. I'm used to this current version of football growing up in the 2000s. Sure you had your pass heavy offenses but most teams were at least balance and a lot more run heavy.
This has been my argument for a few years. The pre-nfl football programs are no longer favoring pocket passers and opting for athletic hero qb's and the qb pipeline is now pumping dudes into the league that can't read defenses, don't have good pocket footwork, and never learned how to be true qb, because they always had the option to tuck the ball and run. Now they are in the NFL and they tuck the ball and get knocked out.
Tuck ans run QBs don't usually work for the same reason you cant run a triple option offense: the defensive players are too quick and too smart for it took work often enough to win
@@staidenofanarchy I agree, I would add that you can run option football with great success. The bigger issue is that in order to be a great team, one that can make deep runs, they have to be able to play situational football, they have to sometimes be able to get into a shootout. Sometimes winning is fundamental, strong d and pound the rock. Sometimes it's a QB putting the whole game on their backs. A lot of these new era qb's flat out can't get in a shootout like the qb's of the previous era.
I think it's more along the lines of drafting a certain type of player to match the current trend. Teams have gone so pass heavy defensively they are undersized to stop the run, 10 or 15 years ago most teams were built slow and heavy to stop the run game and the spread became a viable option across the league because defenses weren't built to stop the run outside the numbers. Defenses also have to build for the RPO offense and it leaves you with smaller backers to stuff a true rushing attack.
@@MMMHOTCHEEZEThis is not true I’m sorry. There are more talented and athletic WR’s and TE’s now then there ever has been. It’s 100% the way defenses are built and coached now it’s all to stop the pass. Dominant defenses have won 5 of the last 6 superbowls.
@@tominator028 no no no he means there aren’t enough talented QBs to replace it. Let’s be real here Mahomes Allen Lamar Burrow and the lot are fun but they aren’t equal as a group to Brady Brees Ben Rivers Rodgers the Manning Bros…all of whom have SBs where as the current group is carried by Mahomes in that dept
This was the actual secret to Tom Brady's success. Despite being Tom Brady, he was almost always middle of the pack in terms of pay. He traded getting paid top dollar for the team salary cap necessary to get him receivers and most importantly a top defence.
In all honesty, the NFL and us fans need this. We've been spoiled to the point where we're allowing Offense and Passing to overrun Rushing Attack and Defensive game because the NFL knows how much money itll make off of Quarterbacks. We need more variety in football again!
Or people are just used to the fun looking throws and catches. Not everyone is 40 years old and is nostalgic for the rushing days. Football has most recently been pass dominated, and that’s what most people have become accustomed to.
It always swings back and forth. For a while in the 2000s everyone was an elite rushing offense and then it was all about the ball hawking, physical defense, I remember as it switched and honestly im so insanely glad its going back. I like the idea of some teams being elite passers and some being elite rushers and some with elite defense to all challenge each other
There was a time in the mid 90's through the early 2010's where a QB who would throw 60 yards down the sideline for an incompletion were 100% in fashion. As long as we don't go back to that I'm happy.
Also worth noting that fullbacks are making a comeback. Offensive coaches increasingly rely on them not just for run blocking but as a necessary check against big name major disruptive pass rushers or when staring down blitz packages
Offenses spent 10 years decimating defenses and I think defenses have finally figured it out. Again, it took most teams 10+ years to figure out how to stop these fast paced offenses, but they did it.
Yep. Sometime in the next few years, some OC will figure out how to get over that two high safety look & offenses will run wild again. That is, until the defenses adjust.
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 they have figured it out. Short passes to the open zone spots and big linemen with a power run game. It's just extremely boring to watch.
I am loving the balance coming back. If a game becomes “solved,” it becomes boring. I don’t think that will happen with the NFL given how complex it is.
to be fair i prefer a balance of running and passing games. I hate 40-50+ passing attempts per game. i prefer precision. I would like it to resemble a game of madden, u get a combo of high air play and behind the scrimmage extension of the run game.
@@joekaput747true, but that area I specifically remember multiple qbs having 300, 400 and some 500 yard games. Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Rivers, Cutler, Brady, Manning, Vick, Bradford, Luck, Stafford, Flacco, Palmer, Warner and even Matt Flynn had a 500 yard game. I think offenses have just changed so much that instead of taking so many risks with deep throws, they are more calculated when they do them
to be fair i prefer a balance of running and passing games. I hate 40-50+ passing attempts per game. i prefer precision. I would like it to resemble a game of madden, u get a combo of high air play and behind the scrimmage extension of the run game.
i love watching kenneth walker dance his way up the field while zach charbonnet occasionally trucks the soul out of some poor defensive back. seahawks got a fun running back room!
Google asked for my feedback on this comment so I gave it the smiley face. It asked what made this comment exceptional. I said cause it was funny. You're welcome. 👋
Honestly Big Ben, Brady, Mannings, and Rivers and Brees were all field generals with differing skill sets, but they all read the field much better than most do today.
Well, here's something that crossed my mind in '22. i understand why most _fans think_ QBs come shrink-wrapped to the NFL out of college already programmed with all the knowledge necessary to pass like them. But you had guys like Staley, Hackett, Frank Reich who called games like they thought that the opposing defenses they went up against were NPCs. One wonders if the video game era didn't muck up how some coaches think.
No the lb and DT positions has evolved there much more faster and qbs has less time to make reads and escape the pressure that’s why teams want more athletic qbs more then on time pocket qbs bcuz it’s the off script plays that are becoming more important for big plays bcuz dbs have less success guarding wr longer then 3sec
We've had Elite QBs in the Super Bowl losing because they have to run for their lives. Biggest recent example to me was the Chiefs losing to the Bucs years ago. The Chiefs line had injuries and was not ready for the Super Bowl. Mahomes looked like he was about to die out there despite trying his best to tough it out and win.
Also not the best development programs to get starting quality QBs. Bo is older so he should know a little more than most, but like Shadeur Sanders there is just no way he will develop with his childish mentality.
I think it also has to do with D Coordinators becoming better at stopping a high powered passing offense. Took them almost a decade to do it, but they did it lol. Even when you go back 10 years, when Manning and Brady and Rodgers and Brees were tearing it up, there was still A LOT of horrible QB play.
This is wrong. Defensive philosophy has changed pretty drastically over recent years to make passing defense more complex, take away deep plays, the best defenses employing bend don't break play styles keeping everything in front of the safeties, way more disguised blitzing and coverage schemes, and separating the field into different schemes to make it as confusing to read as possible for the quarterback. And it's been working. It took a bit, but defenses are catching up to offenses.
Finally someone said it. The two main reasons that NFL passing is down is that OLs are currently way outclassed by DLs, and that QBs have recently been valued on their ability to make explosive plays, and not ability to make consistently good reads and throws. The Bears are the perfect example, an OL that couldn’t stop a 4 man rush, much less a blitz, and a rookie QB who was overhyped and rushed in to start Week 1 because of the explosive plays he can produce, despite every other facet of his game being nowhere near other “generational” rookie QBs like Andrew Luck
The big change in the NFL over the last three to five years is the abundance of really good edge rushers and the concurrent decline of quality along the offensive line. Also, given how the league was passing so much, the role and value of the cornerback went way up - think of how many really good corners there are in the league right now... You can see what the league values in terms of play by tracking the increase in contract value by position. Up to the early 2000s, the RB position was most valued, so was the linebacker, but now, both positions really have been deprioritized, so their contract values have gone way down... Remember, offensive and defensive linemen effectively are the same type of athletes. So if the league values edge rushers more than say a left tackle, the better athlete will take up the edge rushers position because it will pay more - it's an economic decision. So over time, the better athletes go on to play as the edge rushers and the second set of athletes go on to play along the offensive line - where they will get dominated by the edge rushers, giving quarterbacks much less time to complete their passes.
that doesn't help, and doesn't make football "exciting" to watch like goodell wants. i don't even know what rule changes could be made at this point to favor the passing game. maybe let the OL line up deeper in the backfield?
@imissryo long live the defense. Screw offense only, let them figure out how to actually develop a qb and maybe don't take 6 in the first 12 picks. Time for the offense to adjust, the defense has been attempting it for years now.
@@mattbryant8320 i’m not saying we should, but roger goodell himself said that he’s not happy with where offense is rn. so i’m just expecting some rules changes
one thing I think you didnt cover is the size of players in the backfield. defenses are built to stop the pass more than ever, which means theyve de-emphasized size and emphasized agility in its place. Defenses are just smaller. gone are the days of 250+ pound middle linebackers. Washington has a starting corner who was drafted in the first round who was 168 pounds when he was drafted, which was a little controversial only because christian gonzales was still on the board. Teams use nickel and dime packages more than ever. The chargers famously used a 7 db base package against the ravens in the 2018 playoffs. modern defenses are smaller, quicker, and can cover more ground, but they can be had when the game gets physical
It's a cycle. In the 80s passing became a major staple of football thanks to players like John elway and Joe Montana, but by the 90s it was all about the run with emmit smith, Barry sanders, and Ricky Watters, and all the best teams being the ones who could run the ball best, even elway won a Superbowl with a 2000 yard rusher when Terrell Davis had his monster season in the late 90s, then in the early 2000s it became a passing league again. But now defenses are designed to stop it slow down the passing game and the running game is becoming more important and impactful than it was a few years ago. The fact they underpay RB's is almost criminal with how defenses allow rushing yards today.
It's not that elite passing is dead, it's more like elite passing require a lot of things and not just a great QB. And like the Ravens the Chiefs or even the Bills did last year in the 2nd part of the season, we are trending to a situation where coaches wants to have the ball as much as possible. And we as fans needs to realize that a QB can have an excellent game and just throw for 150 Yards and 1 TD just like Allen did yesterday or Purdy last week.
Look at New England last week, they have no real passing attack and played that game like it was back in the damn seventies, good D, ground and pound and very selective and safe passes. The old always becomes the new again.
@@SycoticForeverNeverAF Yeah I agree, they were bottom 5 in terms of explosive play last year, it will be different this year. But like we saw against the Ravens, this version of the Chiefs rely on their defense more than ever, and their best version will be when they find the balance between the run game and the passing game.
The difference between QBs then vs now is QBs IQ, playcalling, and weaker O-Lines. QBs like Peyton were insanely intelligent at reading defenses and making audibles at the line. Playcalling today no longer three level passing (short, medium, long), nowadays a lot of plays are gadget plays and short throws. In addition, a lot of teams try to have a balance offense or emphasize the run. Our elite passers in the pass all had really good offensive lines. Good O-Lines means more time to throw, more encouragement to throw down field.
I remember listening to someone a couple years ago warning about the downgrade in quality of QBs knowing how to play the QB position rather than just being talented. A good example is pitchers in MLB being able to throw 90 to 100 mph balls, but not knowing how to truly PITCH, and last long in games or not wearing out their shoulder and elbow One of the reasons Purdy is so good despite, on paper, not fitting what most scouts would call gifted. He understands the game, reading defenses, have just enough mobility to extend plays, vision, accuracy, anticipation, feel in the pocket, intuition...etc. Things the greats like Brady, Manning, Montana, and many other HoFs, and non-HoFs but hads long careers, were able to do to have sustained success In short, the RPO system becoming so popular, not just at high school but every level, has essentially stunted the growth of QBs development from a young age, and causing the QBs who may not be as physically gifted but knew how to properly play the position end up falling through the cracks
@@owenflibbert8019 eh debatable. They all need surgeries now, and they throw harder. But their ability to make adjustments and pitch to contact have significantly diminished.
been sayin the same for a decade plus now....when you can put the fastest guy in pop warner at qb and let him run all over the field and win games, why not? oh bc it makes for poor qb play each level you go up....except now, even in the NFL, you get a guy that can outrun everyone and beat contain for a season or two, he's your new #1 draft pick...no more consistent qb play...but butts in seats for exciting football...you get what you get I guess....Mike Vick never played a full season of football in the league...all you gotta know to see how this has happened
Tom Brady said it best. For whatever reason, the league is dumbing down on offense at the QB position. The nfl thinks they would rather have QBs who can run and don’t rely on what it took to be a great QB 10,20,30 years ago. Lmao QBs cant beat cover 2 smh tell that to the good QBs in past decades. There’s like 4 current QBs who play the game with their minds just as much if not more than they rely on their athleticism. The best baseball pitchers use their heads just as much as their arm. What’s happening in the nfl is the equivalent of making mlb pitchers who do absolutely nothing but throw 100 mph fastballs every single pitch the new norm of superstar pitchers….. Being able to run and throw 65 yard bombs and nothing in between is not what being a good qb is about. But the nfl thinks differently. Of course passing is going to decline
They have to dumb the game down for the influx of black qb’s who lack the intelligence to grasp the intricacies of sport. Back then. It used to be a chess match. Now it’s just tracing lines for them.
I mean Goff, Stafford, Rodgers, Purdy, Baker, Burrow, Tua, Dak, Kirk. I mean that's much more than 4. And all of them are/were(prayers for Tua) eye-popping athleticically (some have great arm talent but most of the ones I picked out also are negatives with mobility) and are decent to great at what they do.
We had Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Brees during the past 20 years, with other great QBs in Rivers, Ryan, Luck, Warner, and (playoffs only Eli). Golden era of QBs
@@Phoenix-pm2qr Russ Wilson was the beginning of the end. He was too small to pass in the pocket and had to scramble too much to make anything happen. On top of that, he had too weak of an arm to throw to sidelines so it left the Seahawks in a situation where they had a QB who could only hit TE's over the middle and throw those rainbow deepballs that Kearse and Baldwin somehow came down with. Bryce Young is just Russel Wilson on steroids.
Brady said this back in June about the current QB play: "I think the quarterbacking has gone backwards a little bit in the NFL, I don’t think it’s improved. I don’t think the teaching’s improved. I think maybe the physical fundamentals might be a little bit improved because there’s better information out there for quarterbacks to study on mechanics. But I don’t think quarterbacks really are really field generals right now like they used to be." QB's right now are relying on their legs, so the passing is taking a hit. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both had like 15 TDs on the ground. Lamar is closing in on #1 all time QB rushing yards leader and he's still young. What makes Mahomes special is his ability to use his athleticism as well as his sound mechanics.
I stopped watching NFL games years ago. I still watch my favorite NFL RU-vidrs because they are actually entertaining. The product on the field is straight garbage. The NBA has the same problem.
Vegas and prop betting has destroyed stats in all sports. There wont be a group of guys having great seasons at the same time prolly ever again. NBA,NFL MLB and any other sport you can bet on, the numbers will never be consistent
I'm honestly suprised at how low final scores have been so far. with tons of new penalties and rules over the last few years specifically designed to help offenses, and the new kickoff rule (which bassically just brings the touchback out to the 30) it's not long until the NFL just starts each drive at the opponents 40 like CFB overtime rules
Passing is down because nobody plays their starters in a shortened preseason. The offenses don’t gel until week three or four now as opposed to firing out of the gate when the starters knocked the rust off in the preseason.
@@yerrrrrrrr4567 joe flacco vs deshaun watson. Joe flacco out performed watson in every single category off the couch at 40 years old yet watson gets to keep his role as a starter and is paid exponentially more.
Mahomes is on pace to be the new GOAT and his mobility is a clear game changer. Every other elite QB in the league is mobile (Allen, Lamar, Hurts, Dak) and the successful young players are also mobile (Stroud, Love). The only successful slow players left are probably Goff and Stanford and they’ve done that with some of the best offensive talent around them in the league to carry them.
It’s just the league realized they need to run 2 high safety’s and blitz less since 2020 because qbs like Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen were cutting through defenses like playdough
Athletic /running QBs are being picked over true passing qbs. Week 1 of NFL top 5 rushing QBs all had over 50 rushing yards. Of those 5 QBs with the most rushing yards, their combined record was 1-4. Please wake me up when a “running” QB wins the Super Bowl.
Running qbs are better bro you have no argument no one wants to watch some in athletic guy give the ball to real football players passing is a new element to pocket qbs are not meta or necessary
@@ktv9247 cool story bro. I will keep rooting for real passing QBs who will continue to win SB’s. Also one of the most memorable and prolific seasons were the 1999 Rams, k own as the greatest show on turf. Kurt Warner throwing bombs is considered one of the greatest QB seasons. Guess lots of people like nonathletic QBs, contrary to what you think.
Probably because teams kept pissing away their money just to keep their QB's happy. You can't pass the ball effectively without an offensive line, and the O-Line is the first thing to go whenever you pay the QB the big bucks. You also can't run the ball effectively without an offensive line, either. Furthermore, more often than not, players who get paid big bucks and especially fully guaranteed contracts don't play as hard as they would have if they were actively trying to earn their contracts. How often does a QB, WR, RB, or defensive back get paid the big bucks, only to stop giving a crap shortly afterwards.
Would like to see a percentage success rate comparing drafted QBs and drafted OL in first and second round over last 30 years. Base it on years in the league, second contracts, Pro-Bowl appearances? Then compare that to money spent? Where do you get more value? GMs need to start picking higher and more often for OL positions.
A big part of this is because everyone's going for these young "mobile" (obvious code word) QBs. Those elite quarterbacks all had something in common. They were gritty, slow, white dudes, who had to make up for that with high IQ plays, and accurate launches downfield. I for one, think that was a lot more fun to watch, than seeing Lamar scramble 50 times a game.
Also, news flash Perna: Patrick Mahomes. Just because the Broncos forgot how to gain more than five yards on a passing play doesn’t mean the rest of the NFL did too.
I'd argue this is just an example of how the offensive line players are dropping off, and they're dropping off for a reason. They don't make big money, they aren't the ones people talk about, and they're often shafted in favor of more money for the QB. So QBs have less time to throw the ball and have a harder time passing because defensive players are rushing in on all angles. Well...that and they keep clinging to busted QBs like Rodgers thinking they'll singlehandedly win everything for them.
The best linemen get paid better than the best running backs, best tight ends, best d tackles, best linebackers, best safeties by a good margin. Not sure what you’re talking about, tackle in particular is one of the most valued positions in the game.
@@MrRyan-wu4jx Tackles get paid the most out of the offensive line protecting the QB. Center gets paid almost five to ten million on average less than a tackle. Guards tend to come in about equal to a running back. Tightends actually pull in annually about what the Center does. Not sure why you're bringing in safeties and all that, I'm talking about Offensive Line, the people protecting the QB so he doesn't get splatted into the ground. Kind of like what happened to Tua last night.
No hitting in practice. Restricted practice timeframes. Don't play In preseason. But we expect the passing game that's based on reps, timing, rapport and o line coordination to be good week 1. People are delusional
And you aren't very smart because we have multiple season worth of evidence at this point that says offenses are dramatically worse than they used to be.
"Alright fellas, to stop these defenses, we're busting out a 1930s NFL playbook like we're the Springfield Sharks lead by that MVP of 1931, Arthur Q. Magillicuddy, the greatest white RB to ever go from working as a bootlegger to the NFL"
Obviously, the NFL is cyclical. When passing is very effective, defenses will adjust to focus on defending that style of passing. Consequentially, that style of passing will become increasingly difficult, but other forms of offense (different passing schemes, running, etc.) become incrementally easier. Those other types of offense then rise to the top for a while and the cycle repeats.
I'm glad! The last time I remember defense is part of the game as well. To me it's boring if teams are able to run up and down the field the whole game with each team scoring 60 points. This isn't basketball. Football is about outsmarting and overpowering your opponent.
This makes me sad. Growing up in the late, 00s, 2010s I was so in love with the aerial assault. Like those 38/52 482 5tds and 2 ints. Those were the days 😅 it's very interesting watching the game change but it stays just as insanely entertaining
no the real elites, Brady, Manning and Brees would eat those two high shells alive with their slot guy and TE and Mahomes is elite because he can take the underneath stuff too and is helped with his..... TE
