I think one reason why teams overpay their quarterbacks is because if they don't, some other team will. If the 49ers don't pay up for Brock Purdy for example, he'll just go somewhere else where they'll pay him the whole GDP of France. Then the 49ers have to hope they can find someone decent again, which is never guaranteed.
@@JohnOMalley-c6sWhen Justin Herbert is getting a megacontract to stay on the Chargers, if Purdy doesn’t get paid by the Niners, some shitty team will to get a competent QB
IDK I think this is why Baltimore considered trading Lamar as good as he is, because the thought was get extra picks and draft someone else to be on this really good team, use those picks and the cash savings elsewhere.
@@alanreeves9872 49ers have been to the Super Bowl with 3 different QBs in 15yrs. If there’s any team that can rebound from losing their guy it’s them.
The Twitter GM's absolutely killed the Lions for drafting Penei Sewell over Justin Fields. Partly because doing so was an endorsement of Jared goff, partly because it's an OL over a QB, but mostly because the Lions were just really easy to make fun of back then. But 4 years later, what's happened, Sewell might be the best OL in football, and Fields just got traded for a 6-round pick.
I was on twitter for that draft and most people loved the Sewell pick from what I saw. People got more upset at the broncos for passing on Justin fields
The draft is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you are gonna get. My team is the Raiders. In 2007, we got the first pick in the whole draft. A monster of a good qb--on paper. Jamarcus Russell was one of the Top 3 Busts of All Time. I went into Raider Image and I had my favorite Raider's jersey made for me. #2. Daniel Carlson, the Raiders leading scorer. He made 30 straight field goals and fans COMPLAINED! Loudly.
I've said it before, If Tom Brady goes to the Browns instead of the Patriots, there is no such thing as Tom Brady. Where you go matters. Stafford is a great example of a guy who was nearly burned up in the fire of Detroit's ineptitude. I've watched the NFL since the 70's and I've watched good QB's get blasted on garbage teams, some of them getting injured before their careers could even start.
great analogy.... if you put the best, highest performing, most horsepower engine into a car w/ no tires and no steering wheel.... doesn't really matter.
I totally agree with this. The Panthers were NOT in a position to draft a franchise quarterback. I believe Bryce Young has the tools to become a good quarterback, but it was insane thinking to believe he would carry any of his college proficiency into a garbage team like this. Receivers that can't separate, an O-Line that can't block correctly. I really hope Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson can give Bryce some sort of comfort in the pocket
@@brutalasbucs9719 Well.... It's possible for a really good team with an average QB to win a Super Bowl. The 2017 Eagles, 2012 Ravens, and 2000 Ravens are recent examples where the team was so good that they were able to win with a game manager QB.
@@acidwizard6528Only one of those teams had a game manager. Flacco threw 11 TDs in 4 games that post-season. Foles was a back-up but balled out with 300 yards and 2 TDs a game. He was also good at one point. Trent Dilfer was definitely a game manager. The only other I can really think of is Rex Grossman.
@@blue-pi2kt Flacco was historically a game manager. Him and Foles going off in the playoffs is why they won, but no one was knocking on their doors when they were free agents for a reason. That should tell you everything.
been saying this for the longest. There’s always like 4-7 truly elite guys that can expand the playbook/run your offense smoothly, then everyone else is just overhyped and can be interchanged (Kirk/Dak/etc)
Brother Dak is the 3rd best QB in the NFL right now (behind the obvious top 2 1. Mahomes 2. Allen). He deserved MVP over Lamar last year (check the stats). Only the reason Lamar won was the media narrative and the Ravens record/seed (because of their #1 defense) and recency bias from the Dolphins / Niners games. And Lamar is worse in the playoffs than Dak. Also regarding Kirk, he played like a top 5 QB in the 8 games last year before the Achilles injury, so you might be referring to 2017 to 2022 Kirk.
@@ckq No, he's not. Stats suggest he is, but I wouldn't take him over Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Stroud, and probably Love and Herbert. If you're content with making the playoffs yearly and getting nowhere in them that's fine and Dak is your guy for that. But to suggest he's the third best QB in the league when he'd be lucky to be considered the third best QB in the NFC... Jackson is worse than Dak? Wait, which one made their Conf Champ game last year and which one hasn't gotten past the divisional round ever?
No one with any football knowledge thinks quarterbacks are so valuable that they can make any team a contender every year. First and most obvious is that the qb doesn’t play defense or special teams and therefore impacts at most 50% of the game. Second, you’ve set up an arbitrary standard for being valuable. Teams at random should make the playoffs 25%-40% of the time (winning division or changing wild card rules). That means if a qb single-handedly increased their team’s playoff rate to 50%, they would be immensely valuable, having literally doubled their team’s chance of making the playoffs. The QB is like the queen in chess. It’s estimated the queen is worth 9 “pawns”, rook is 5, bishop and knight are 3, and pawns 1. The queen is significantly more valuable than any other piece. It’s three times as valuable as the third best piece, roughly equal to two of the second best piece, and worth more than every pawn combined. And yet two bishops and a rook would kill a queen. So like a queen, the QB is the most valuable individual player, but not even close to as valuable as the rest of the team.
@mc80466 you missed the point of that part of the video. Elite qbs are elite and should be valued as such. But there are only a handful of them. It’s the good QBs that barely effect their teams success at a replacement level, yet some how get paid at an elite rate, that are being overvalued.
@badsportstakes644 More like he put up amazing numbers with one of the worst OL in the league, with a middle of the road recieving core, and next to no running game, all while HAVING A TORN LABRAL TENDON on his throwing shoulder (for a few years). I tore mine on my throwing shoulder and went from being a great outfielder in baseball, to never playing competitively again because of how messed up my shoulder is. If you put Luck on almost any other team, he would still be in the league with a few super bowls under his belt
@@YouJustAmazeMe no its not. Like an amazing employee getting overused at his job instead of being properly treated and appreciated... its a perfect description of what happened.
While point is important: note that Goff and Purdy are good QBs. This is also a note about it the extreme over valuation of athleticism/oh that looks cool, vs what works.
@@Dryltd Russell Wilson is a good counter example here, and guys like lamar jackson and kaepernick were pretty damn close as well. Wouldn't rule them out as viable tbh.
@@dark8prince201 We might have different definitions of run dominant. I'm talk Vick, Lamar, RG3, those types of guys. You are saying I may need to wa5ch some old Seahawks games to refresh my memory.
The truth is that you just need a good Qb surrounded by an all around great team to win a Superbowl. You need multiple pieces, and a QB just happens to be the most important part of it. A great QB can only do so much though. Aaron Rodgers is proof of this.
I suppose that all I know is that I’ve been a Chiefs fan for 40 odd years & they essentially couldn’t even win a playoff game until they got a great QB. Trent Green, Matt Cassel & Alex Smith couldn’t do shit for them, but Joe Montana got em to a AFC Championship Game & Patrick got em even further. And when they went to their first two Super Bowls, it was with Hall of Fame QB, Lenny Dawson. Edit: I will say, after watching the video, that I agree with your points. A franchise QB will not lift up a shit organization. They can help, but if yo don’t have a team built around him, you’re most likely going to fail.
I wouldn't put Smith in the same group, since he has a playoff win as a Chief, plus one as a 9er. Otherwise I am mostly with you. Dawson(5), DeBerg, Montana(2), and Smith combined for 9 playoff wins for the Chiefs. Mahomes at 15 and counting is absurd. He is averaging 2.5 per year, and 20 behind Brady. Meaning he is on pace to tie that in 8 years, or the last year of his current contract, which is also mind-blowing.
@@JohnClarkWit should also be noted that Andy Reid is widely considered a top 5 coach that primarily works with the offense. It's not a magical phenomenon that lead the Chiefs to where they are today.
Idk I still disagree we have seen QBs lift up shit teams. Mahomes is a great example. He has a good oline and his defense is decent but he goes out there and wins those games for them. Constantly adjusting
A lot if good arguments in here but I think the strongest one you made is that a franchise QB is almost never the solution to a team's problems. If your team finished low enough to pick a franchise QB in the draft, you have many more problems. A good team with a below average QB is still a good team.
@@DS-ux9ldthe Texans had an unusually spicy draft alongside Stroud while also having some second years step up, and the Bengals suffered for Burrow’s rookie year because he immediately got injured due to shit OL play. So the point still stands, a franchise QB alone does not instantly fix an entire team.
NO ONE expects a rookie QB to win a Superbowl year one, But you get a 5 year contract window to build around them. You need an Elite QB to build around if you want a SB
My favorite examples of overrating QBs come from the Vikings: Remember when Kirk Cousins took over for Case Keenum? The Vikings went to the NFC Championship Game the year before. Then they upgraded their "most important position" by giving Cousins a lot of money. That should lead them to the Superbowl, right? Well... Keenum won as many Play Off Games as Cousins for the Vikings. The 2nd example is the 2016. Where they had to replace Teddy Bridgewater on short term notice with Sam Bradford. They started the season 5-0, while Bradford was learning the play book. Bradford did not even start in week one... But after the bye week, they lost 4 straight. Even though Bradford got more comfortable with the offense, they finished the season 8-8 and missed the play-offs. What happened? Well, their Offensive Line fell apart due to injury. They could replace their QB, but they could not replace their Oliner... That should tell you, how important those often forgotten players are for the passing game.
QBs sell tickets. Owners love sales, and will sacrifice team succsess to drive sales. Only 3 QBs in the last 15 years have made a superbowl while accounting for 15% or more of their teams total cap. (Brady, Ryan, and Mahomes) In reality, QB does matter more than any other position, but not every other position. Maximizing Talent within the cap is key, then it just takes a little luck.
@@Derrick-i3r fine. We can go back to 2013. Only the Foles win was with a QB who wasn’t, if not elite, then a notch down. Manning was a shell of himself but still did enough. I used to feel this same way, but present evidence shows otherwise
@@davidhochstetler4068 ok and was there a team that was just trash and the qb helped them win no so an elite qb and a good team makes it Herbert has put up spectacular stats and it hasn’t done nothing for his team
Yes it’s true, the past 6 Super Bowls have been won by teams with Mahomes, Stafford and Brady. But they’ve also been good teams in their own right. 2023 Chiefs: 6th in defense, 18th in rushing 2022 Chiefs: 15th in defense, 10th in rushing 2021 Rams: 9th in defense, 20th in rushing 2020 Bucs: 5th in defense, 10th in rushing 2019 Chiefs: 18th in defense, 13th in rushing 2018 Patriots: 6th in defense, 8th in rushing Having a top 5 QB definitely helped put these teams over the top, but in my opinion they’re far from the only reason why these teams were successful.
QB is the most volatile position in sports. When the team is good, the qb looks like a god. When the team is not good, the qb looks like he shouldn’t have made it past high school varsity
@@no.con.dom15 he quite literally explained it perfectly, qb is 100% the most volatile position, the same way the goalie is in hockey. any elite team, the qb play will more often than not be good enough to avoid serious criticism, (purdy, jimmy g, nick foles, mark sanchez back on that stacked jets team) where as bad teams, the qb will take the brunt of the criticism, just look how guys like justin herbert are talked about. the only elite team with a qb that gets criticized is really dallas, with dak, which is obvious as to why
@@Dave002 No he didn't explain it perfectly. Obviously QB is a volatile position, but that still doesn't make the implications in his statements after correct. A QB elevate their team Judy like their team can elevate them. It's not mutually exclusive.
This is a phenomenal video, I've always thought some of these past QBs were set up to fail but the way you broke it down made a lot of sense. I like how you mentioned that Caleb Williams and JJ McCarthy have been set up pretty well too, gives us a little more insight to who might be good this year
Yes they are overvalued. The NFL is designed to be the most QB friendly it has ever been. Defenses have been forced to give space, allowing receivers to get open easier, you cant hit the QB or else youll get penalized, they all mostly throw from the Shotgun because they didnt learn how to play under center, etc. So now, we are seeing the NFL overpay this position but heres the issue: overpaying a QB does not always equal results. Brady and Mahomes were on ultimate team friendly deals, hence why they managed to keep their teams intact and win so much. Stafford's Rams contract was not nearly as huge as it could have been. More often than not, paying massive bucks to a QB does not equal a SB win or run. It gives people the ILLUSION of thinking they are going to compete without guaranteeing it. Case in point: the Browns. Their overpaid QB (Watson) was hurt and their off the couch backup (Flacco) came in, played better and got them to the playoffs. The Dolpins are going to regret paying Tua because when Hill retires (and he says he will soon), he will be exposed as a subpar passer. The Giants lost their best player (Saquan) because they overpaid their QB. I can bring up other examples like Carson Wentz, Kevin Kolb and Sam Bradford.......QBs who were overpaid and did nothing with that money. Hell my QB, Dak Prescott, got paid......has won one playoff game against a medicore TB team since. Football is a team sport. Overpaying one position means you will be at a detriment to another. When a QB takes up a shit ton of your salary cap, expect to have issues in other areas. Notice how fans are always "THIS QB DOESNT HAVE ENOUGH HELP!!" Probably should blame that QB salary. Team building, chemisty, coaching, scheming, adapting with the players you have......thats what wins championships. Thats why Brady and Mahomes won a combined 5 SBs witnout having a clear #1 receiving threat (yes they had great defenses but to still put up the offensive numbers they did was still insane)......their coaches are masterminds at putting great teams together. Andy Reid doesn't get the respect he deserves for great team building........hes only been doing it for 20+ years.
Sure, all that and having a guy like Montana, Brady or Mahomes who consistently convert game winning drives. Everyone understands the value of _not_ paying a QB and having a strong roster. It's why QB's basically go 1-2-3 every year now. But they also understand the difference between a quality QB and a bad one and how hard it is just to find one of the 18 who doesn't suck. (It's really hard.) And it's even harder to find one of the 10 or so head coaches who make a real difference The reality is more often than not -- 97% of the time -- you aren't going to win a SB regardless of roster construction. But if you have a bad QB you won't win 100% of the time. You're the Browns and Lions and going 10 years without a competent QB and going 0-16. And _that_ is why you pay Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. Because _someone_ will and because they give you a WAY better chance than Marcus Mariota or Brandon Wheedon and being competitive and not winning a SB is 1000% better than being a laughingstock. But QB's are _definitely_ overpaid. That's just what happens in a market with scarcity and no max salary though
@@michaelahurtwhat they are not understanding is a great team with a mid qb will majority of the time fall to a mid team lead by a great qb. Mahomes and Brady don’t have stacked teams. Remember Alex Smith had Tyreek and Kelce and what happen? Oh yea nothing’s. Then they get Mahomes and Kelce is and All time great. The Qb is what’s gonna bring you to the next level
I'm in agreement here, and it's my worries with my Jags. I love this team, I love them dearly, however I do not believe that Lawrence's paycheck reflects his potential. We needed help in so many other areas, boosting our run game, changing up the playbook and having Lawrence play under center more often and working on our D-Line and some better back up in our secondary and working on developing Engram and Allen and on and on and on, NOT throwing all of our money into the salary of our QB and hoping for the best. Of course other things like a classic Baalke draft will set us back a bit but this was egregious. Really hoping Doug knows what he's doing and not just tryna out-talent everyone like back in Philly
The easiest way to a good passing game is a good qb. That's the awnser. You can't just bring up Nick Foles considering that he is like the one exception in the past 11 years
That's just not true. Not at all. Quarterback play is greatly influenced by the play design, play calling and personnel. Look at tua, he looked AWFUL in the beginning, and once they added tyreek and the nerd coach he looks like a superstar. Stafford goes to the rams, superbowl, despite some forgettable Detroit years. Tom brady's final year in New England, pedestrian, goes to the bucs, elite year. Aaron rodgers has a down year in 2019, they change some personnel and coaches, two straight mvp's. I could do this all day.
@TheShepdawg9 @TheShepdawg9 Stafford, Tom, and Aaron are all explained by improving their teams. They had down years but were still good before them. Scheme plays a huge part in any players game. Not just QBs. Using scheme and team as an argument can never work because having a better team or coach around you will always make for a better jump in production. That doesn't make the QB any less valuable. But here are some examples of passing games improving because of QBs and not coaches or players in recent years: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, and Tom Brady which was your example but actually shows how much a QB impacts a passing game. Jameis was a below average QB the year before and as soon as they improved the position they went to the superbowl. Had nothing to do with other positions or coaches. Even Stafford proved this when he immediately won a superbowl after the rams upgraded at qb. Not at coach, not at WR or Oline, Quaterback. The best example of this is far and away Mahomes tho. The Chiefs went from a consistent playoff team that could win a game or two to a borderline dynasty as soon as they replaced a GOOD QB in Alex Smith with a GREAT one. They even lost Tyreek and STILL WON THE SUPERBOWL!!! That's how much of a difference a great qb makes vs a good one
@@marceloverlorx8232 every single one of your examples is a case against yourself. Firstly, I never said having a better qb doesn't help increase production, I said that's its not nearly as important as the other pieces combined. Mahomes is definitely better than Alex Smith, but mahomes benefited from an emerging tyreek hill to go along with an already solidified star in kelce. CJ Stroud received an elevated level of wide receiver play, where 3 of his receivers graded incredibly highly, independent of QB play. Tom is absolutely better than Winston, but the offence's output came from less negative plays. Jameis is a detriment at qb. It wasn't a transition from good to great qb, it was AWFUL to great. The Bengals drafted 2 elite receivers within the same 2 year stretch as burrow joining. Not a good example. I want to know of some examples where the offence was poor despite having good weapons and a mediocre qb. Any ideas? Every example you've given has involved mass team improvement outside of the qb.
@@marceloverlorx8232 also, Alex Smith was not a good qb. Not by any stretch. You're making my point. Alex did absolutely nothing until he arrived on a fantastic squad, with kelce and Andy Reid, and they won 12 games. The difference between superbowl team and 12 win team isn't much at all, in fact a lot of 12 win teams win the superbowl. You can't act like that's a major upgrade.
@@TheShepdawg9 *Lol. Alex Smith made it to a NFC Championship game with the 49ers before getting hurt.* *It's almost as if coaching and defense have an impact on how well the QB plays.*
@murxyYT the last time it happened was 2015 and it took one of the best defenses ever on the other side of the ball. realistically you NEED a good/great qb, or someone like foles or flacco that played at an elite level for their runs
At 20:00 I just wanna say that yes good receivers are part of the reason the yac yards are so high qb accuracy and timing is just as important when it comes to yac yards.
Oh absolutely, it’s a 2 way street. If you hit them in stride it’s a lot easier for them to get 7 yards after the catch. Purdy’s pretty good at that! And the 49ers also have the best YAC group in the league, they can squeeze out as many yards as possible after the catch too
@@dr.pigskin This is a great idea for a future video. The one year Brady had Randy Moss he threw 50 TDs, his previous high being 28 & 23 of the 50 were to Moss. So yeah, he added 23 without subtracting more than 1 from other players. Jerry Rice caught for 3 QBs none of who were anywhere _NEAR_ the MVP discussion without him. Gannon might be the best example. Has any QB ever elevated any WR the way Moss elevated Brady? Is the differential between WRs larger than that between QBs? D.J. Moore has succeeded no matter his QB. So in case like that, not only is he good but were his QBs bad with everyone else or was everyone else bad? (I linked a video featuring INTs Fields was credited with showing his receivers falling down, running the wrong routes, swatting his passes away etc. Can we calculate for that)? If I weren't severely dyslexic I'd have done this myself before now. I'm really tired of undue credit being given to QBs. Andy Reid schemed 3 TD, 2 of 'em game-winners in the last 2 S-Bs. Without that, Mahomes loses both. Meanwhile Lamar's coaches just called RPOs all game putting all decision-making in his hands removing all helpful guidance *in a playoff game against Reid, Spagnuolo, Mahomes & the Chiefs* yet somehow this is _his_ loss? A great idea for a future video. I like this one. & I e-mailed myself the link to your one about Bowles changing defenses just so I always have it 'on speed dial' so to speak.
I agree 99% of the time- that 1% is Lamar who saved the Ravens. That team in 2018 was 4-5 when he took over and Lamar went 6-1 leading them to the playoffs. That Ravens team only had 4 pro bowlers, 3 of which were on defense. The best wr he's ever had was Hollywood Brown and his best rb to date has been Gus Edwards. That guy's value can not be understated. HW: Remind me who his supporting cast was during his first mvp szn
@@thatswhatsgood24 that's just the giants being stupid everyone knew Barkley should have gotten the contract. If anything it shows how poor management decisions get glossed over and are never held responsible. Why is the media talking about Jones only and not everyone involved in drafting him+signing him? We already know he's bad, so let's hold the inviduals responsible for his presence accountable.
Because everyone wants their QB to be Josh Allen. That dude definitely carries his team, but it shines a light on the defense and they have let him down.
@@MrShanester117 was among the best of the league in basicalyl every efficiency and advanced stat lots of turnovers but also lots of touchdowns and he basically willed his team to the 2 seed so
Allen is a product of his cast, not an elite superstar...yet. Before Diggs, inconsistent turn over machine teetering on bust. With Diggs, regular playoff loser. If he falls flat this year he will lose his shot at elite status, but if he can succeed it will HELP boost his stock.
Allen is an amazing QB, but let’s be real, he’s a tier below some current guys, and last season was just evidence that proves he’s not a tier one QB. He single handedly lost the Bills games because of his reckless play. As amazingly talented as he might be, he needs a harness on otherwise he’ll throw games away.
I must say, for someone who has such a small channel this is a well thought out, well edited, well presented really good video. Cheers to you. Earned a sub
i think i agree with the premise but i disagree with the goal..if your goal is to get to the playoffs yeah sure you can make it with a mid QB surrounded by a good team but if your goal is to win the entire damn thing like it should be i absolutely disagree..you do need a demigod at QB bc at the moment we are at the mercy of one of the most talented and clutch players ever under the coaching of one the greatest football minds ever,yes you need elite QB play to have a chance.But yeah if you want to make it to the wild card round i guess Tua will do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Tua’s valuable because there’s a lot worse than Tua out there that the Dolphins could be left with if they let him walk by low balling him. If a GM lets the teams perfectly fine QB go and then the team falls apart next season, that’s their ass on the line. Teams will overpay for a sub-elite QB because it keeps them out of the doldrums of the league, and improving along the margins just might be enough to get over the hump. Having a straight up bad QB makes that impossible in the modern day.
I mean you literally just contradicted your whole statement "most talented and clutch players" following "under the coaching of one of the greatest football minds ever". It's never 1 person who makes a team great or even a super bowl winning team. You are completely correct that having a bad qb will hit a certain limit maximum playoffs, but a qb should be measured by their team not just 1 single person who, lets face it, relies on at least 1 player every single play to either block for them or be open or be in a position so the pass can be made. It's not hard to think about.
Excellent video bro! Football normies don't seem to understand that QBs alone aren't going to turn a franchise around. The entire *team* needs to be complete!
As a niners fan you’re right until it comes to the playoffs and/or super bowl …I’ve watched the elite qb be the SOLE difference in the outcome of the game
I think it's an interesting hypothesis, but it gets disproven every couple years when a team with a promising start loses their QB to injury, then they either scramble to find a replacement, or roll with the backup, and the entire team implodes, not just the QB position. Remember, the Jets were supposed to be an inner circle contender last season after Aaron Rodgers joined them, but they were lucky to claw to 7-10 behind Zach Wilson
Just found your channel this morning talking about the 1 quarter that changed everything. Great work on your videos! Please keep the content coming Doc!
This is a well put-together and thought-provoking video, thank you. I’m only new to American football (I’m an Aussie and have been brought up on our vastly different ‘footy’) and find your fact-based approach far more helpful than highly emotive stuff produced just for clicks. Perhaps an additional argument you could have used was the Chad Henne 98 yard drive during the 2022 playoffs against the Jaguars when Mahomes injured his ankle. Obviously one play isn’t definitive but it surely demonstrates what a good offence the Chiefs have? I’ve heard talk about excluding the QB salary from the overall salary cap. Such a move would enable the same ‘franchise QB messiah’ that currently exists whereas the keeping the QB salary under the price cap may force teams to consider your opinion a little more judiciously. Anyway, thank you for the educating and entertaining piece.
Seriously, can I watch a single QB video without the commenter shitting all over Brock Purdy? As a 49ers fan, the most important thing for me with regards to Purdy is that he rarely makes mistakes / dumb decisions. When he does, he learns from his mistakes and gets better with no ego. Which is more than you can say about Josh Allen / Dak Prescott. 49ers have oozed confidence since Brock took over and they have lost only 1 game because of his play (last year against the Ravens). Purdy plays aggressively (unlike Garrapulo), is calm under pressure and has a killer instinct. All these physical traits / talent is over-rated IMHO. How many QBs were "more talented" than Brady over the last 20+ years.
Shanahan is the reason your team is good not the QB you made a Super Bowl with Garoppolo that means its the coach not the player. That's why Garoppolo and Purdy didn't win one they're not good enough.
I think purdy is a really good QB in a great situation. But I’d wager if Shanahan was given the opportunity to 1 for 1 trade purdy for Allen or Dak he’d do it in a heartbeat.
@@JohnOMalley-c6sfool watch the offense with Jimmy and watch it with Brock it’s Obvious that Brock is superior ..you can hate all you want Brock is amazing just physically limited
@@Ytuser485 Dak hasn’t been in the top 5 payed QBs for years now. He has 3 seasons over 4,000 yards, 3 seasons with a passer rating over 100, 3 seasons over 30 TDs, 3 seasons with MVP votes, has one of the highest completions % in the league (and ever), one of the highest TD-INT rates ever (to put it in perspective Josh Allen has more interceptions than Dak while having almost 40 less passing TD’s). If the cowboys don’t pay him reports are that multiple teams are already lining up to bid for his services next year. Get the bias out and look at it objectively.
Everyone says the quarterback is the most critical, but it takes more skill to catch than it does to throw. The catching is what I’m usually more impressed with than the passing.
Dr. pigskin, this is a very thoughtful piece and I agree with you completely. The quarterback obsession of the NFL is either laziness on the part of organizations and coaches, or/and part of the savior complex of our society, or marketing. You know people love their heroes and you can't find too much of a hero on a gridiron that fields 22 men so easily. Add a dash of looks, charm, or wildly fantastical plays and you've got a good recipe for some good BS right there. The naysayers will tell you the game has changed but your video right here proves that is wrong. I hope you get a lot of subscribers.
Good vid... I wish more of the talking heads would realize that football is a TEAM sport... I just have to hope that my team doesn't fall down the rabbit hole of thinking one position is all they need. (I'm a Seahawks fan by the by)
Thanks for watching! For what it’s worth, I honestly think that Geno is pretty darn good and the Seahawks have done a good job building up their team, drafting Devon Witherspoon and JSN last year, Byron Murphy this year and hiring Mike MacDonald
The thing is, there are the Blake Bortles, Rex Grossmans, Nick Foles of the world. But there are also the Mahomes, Rogers, Peyton Mannings of the world. When you have a general who the soldiers will go to war for (also why Deshaun Watson will never have the same success)
This video basically answers itself. Yes a great team can lead a mid Qb. However when a great team with a mid qb goes up against a mid team with a great qb (Ravens vs Chiefs 49ers vs Chiefs Seahawks vs Patriots.) the mid team with the great qb is going to win. So yes the Qb is the most important position. But the problem is that good and are being paid like great qbs and that is the issue. Not to mention dude you are a hypocrite. Because you keep saying “well Mahomes and Brady are outliers.” But then you use Nick foles as your example for a system qb winning the big one. My guy Nick is an outlier. Overall the System qb is not beating the elite qb.
Like Dr P said, you have to have an elite passing attack to win an SB. You don't need an elite QB to have an elite passing attack. You also don't need a coat to get warm in the snow. You can learn to build a fire and construct shelters instead.
There are some huge problems with your analysis. Changes in rules and offensive strategy make the QB more important than it was for the QBs in your sample. You ignore the effects that a QB effectively executing an offense can have on the running game and defense.
To be honest i think the title of the video should be "The NFL overvalues GOOD quarterbacks" there isnt such thing as overvaluing a mahomes Allen or burrow. The great to elite qbs elevate team be honest if mahomes wasnt the QB of the chiefs would they have made the playoffs let alone the super bowl? If Allen didn't start playing like an MVP would they have turned the season around and got the 2nd seed? Not to mention how the run game for the bills and ravens has been allen and lamar putting it on their backs
Burrow is not that good. The superbowl run was made by their defense. And browning played at least as good as burrow. Just good players. Now joe has to really carry them. He will have trouble making the playoffs the coming years
Mahomes is not carrying that team. The play calling and personnel is elite. In the 4 games he has sat out, the backup quarterbacks played out of their minds.
@@TheShepdawg9 my dude he had the worst weapons in the league last year, i mean reid hadn't won a super bowl before mahomes came to the chiefs, and we saw how matt Nagy ruined trubisky and was run out of Chicago plus his weapons lets not pretend that his weapons werent the worst in the league
When seven of the last ten super bowls have been won by either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, it’s easy to see how standards of QB success can be warped
The way I look at it is that a team can overcome a bad QB and still be good, but a great QB can overcome a bad team and make them good. That's where I think the importance of QB comes in. It just makes things easier regarding personal.
Uhh… you either have a great QB or you better have everything else perfect and an above average QB… And to be honest, those perfect teams don’t always carry over year to year. Especially the defenses…
But what is a great QB. The Cowboys swear Dak is and I think he is fool's gold. QB analyst swear Purdy is not great but he does his job. What's greater than that. Cousin isn't great and he get paid highly for being competent. Brady and Mahomes are great and they took contractually "less" money. Brady was a system QB in his early years. The kicker was winning many of those big patriot games.
This is kind of true, but the whole premise of this video is that the statement you made isn't even as true as you seem to think it is. What have the great QBs not named Mahomes even done in this league? Of course, only one team can ever win the Super Bowl, but in chasing after the Chiefs how many teams, especially AFC teams, have overvalued and overdrafted quarterbacks that aren't even going to be on the field at the same time as Mahomes when they could be drafting players that actually have a legitimate chance of beating him, like defensive lineman and defensive backs? Or even drafting receivers or offensive lineman give their young QB some insulation? The entire point this guy made is that a team like the commanders had absolutely no business drafting a quarterback this year, and he's right. The Falcons are even worse. They payed Kirk Cousins all that money, just to spend the 8th overall pick on yet another quarterback because they were saying that if they are actually good, they aren't going to be drafting at 8 again.
@@JamCooperThe great qb’s in nfl history have all won sb’s or multiple of them. We dont count qb’s that put up gaudy stats in the regular season and then fold over in the playoffs. That is not a great qb
Purdy vs Mahomes was a great example. The chiefs roster on paper should not be where they are at all but Mahomes elevates them. Purdys team is all round great on paper but he doesn’t have the it factor to win them the game. He’s a good QB but he can’t pull a rabbit out of a hat like the generational guys.
@@SycoticForeverNeverAFthat I'd such a dumb thing to say. People like you make me mad for how stupid your comments are. Has it ever occurred to you that other players on the team facilitate those Super Bowl wins? Or are you honestly suggesting that great quarterbacks just win super bowls without any external factors?
I've been saying this forever. Quarterbacks are given far too much credit for the passing game and the proceeding stats. We look at the man throwing the ball as a reductive way to find someone to praise, but in reality the offensive line and the surrounding weapons are far more integral to the offence combined than the qb alone. There is plenty of evidence of quarterbacks looking either elite or average depending on the remainder of the offence. Plenty. If someone cares enough, I'll go through them.
15:41 Rbdm 18:56 Nerd Numbers Triple Crown 👑👑👑 20:44 It works when Purdy is passing it with the 49ers Offense🏈 21:08 Jake Browning’s 2023 Season 🏈 22:37 Non-Elite Quarterbacks leading Elite Passing Games 🏈 24:05 Jimmy G, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff 24:35 🇺🇸🦅The Amazing Eagles-Patriots SuperBowl 52. 25:38 You don’t need to have an Elite QB to have an Elite Passing Game (it’s true, bit Elite QBs win Rings more than unelite QBs, but that’s easy to understand) 30:00 Bad Rosters Lose Most Games. 31:31 OVER-Paid 💰 for an unjustified lack of value. “Aged like milk.” 🥛 32:20 “Tua, $53 Million Dollars, Tagoviloa.” 🐬 33:57 The 49ers are really expensive. 🏅 35:03 It’s not quite as simple as “Have a good quarterback” and things will be fixed. 35:52 Rebuild The Team before putting in a good quarterback, or he’s gonna have a bad time. 37:12 Russell Wilson. And others 37:49 “You need the Franchise to have a Franchise Quarterback.”
As an Eagles fan, one of the things that makes Howie Roseman such a great GM is he is constantly building his teams to support the QB. Always prioritizes a good OL. Then when they drafted Wentz, they picked up Jeffery. After drafting Hurts, they drafted Smith and traded for Brown.
As Brett Kollman mentions in his coverage of Peyton Manning’s disaster game in the playoffs against the ‘04 Patriots: “Peyton is on the Mt. Rushmore of quarterbacks for a reason […] We have learned nothing in the last 20 years. To this day, we still define great quarterbacks by their worst moments, and we use those moments as justification for why they shouldn’t get long-term contracts at the top of the market […] Everyone is overrated apparently, and it’s just exhausting. So the next time you look at the Trevor Laurence deal and raise an eyebrow, or you scoff at Tua making $50+ millions dollars per year which of course he’s going to, or Jared Goff or even Brock Purdy next year, just remember [Peyton’s disaster game]. Remember that even great quarterbacks are capable of frightening levels of mediocrity from time to time. […] Great quarterbacks are still going to have bad games, it doesn’t mean that they’re not great quarterbacks.”
Genuinely a great video. You’re fucking brilliant, this video really entertained me. I agree with alot of your takes, and I’m glad someone finally said them. Also GO 49ers BANG BANG NINER GANG!!! This is what I think of the video:🔥🔥🔥🐐🐐🐐❤️❤️❤️
Bro completely forgot Purdy also led the league in average depth of target too. Wouldn't rule out he just glanced at the niners 3 game skid and said "good enough to say not elite"
Yeah when he got to the "lead the league in YAC" part I was like bruh, he also lead the league in AIR YARDS. Sure the scheme is very important, as it is with anyone else, but you're delusional if you don't think he pushes the ball downfield at an elite level.
I think what a lot of teams are afraid of is if they don't get "their guy" at QB and instead build up the rest of the roster, then their record will never be bad enough to select an elite QB at the top of the draft, despite many teams showing you can win without one. It's a self-fulfilling cycle in a way of "since a QB won't fall to us, we have to take one now"
i mean, a qb that truly elevates their team to playoff contention is rare af. there are not 75 in the history of the nfl that fall into that list imo, really only 4 qbs in the past 2 decades who are like that. (Brady, Peyton, Rodgers & Mahomes)
QBs are like the corner piece in a puzzle. Another piece may contain key details to the central image, or be a better jumping off point. But When in doubt it’s an obvious building block that can determine the path you use to the final goal. Maybe you need a sturdier line for a pure pocket passer, maybe theres a guy that throws deep so you’ll need a reliable Tight to get him out of busted plays, maybe they score quick so having a ball hawk DB is extremely useful for getting the ball back in his hand in a close game, etc.
Consumerism plays a big part too; they want a face of the franchise, they want high scoring games but every position is so important you could really make an argument for any and all positions being focal
"Jimmy G, Purdy, Geoff have all made the super bowl, Lamar Jackson and Jared Allen have not". Um Jackson and Allen have to go through Mahomes to get there in the first place.
You just earned a sub for saying something that needed to be said. I think that one thing you could have talked more about is the several examples of how people's perceptions of quarterbacks have changed after teams gave them more offensive talent to work with. For example, people were calling Josh Allen disappointing until his 2020 season, the year Buffalo added Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps. Also, Tua's job security was heavily questioned (and is still by some people) until his 2022 season, the year Miami added Tyreek Hill to the receiving corps. We can't forget that many Eagles fans were ready for Howie Roseman to trade Jalen Hurts until the 2022 season, the year AJ Brown became a cornerstone of the Eagles' offense. People say that these respective quarterbacks improved during these seasons, but the truth is that the front offices gave these quarterbacks better players to work with. That's not even mentioning how other teams have fallen apart after trading their best non-QB offensive players. You mentioned the DJ Moore trade and how that contributed to the Panthers' awful 2023 season. I think an even more glaring example is the AJ Brown trade. It should be no surprise that Tennessee fell apart after trading Brown (and replacing him with Treylon Burks, who already looks like a massive bust).
Love the analysis overall but QB still stands as the most important, single position on the field. Adding one elite player at any position from OL to K will never match the same impact adding an elite QB will. For proof, look at the Buccs, Chiefs, Broncos, and Rams
@MrShanester117 no. Not at all. Tackles are the 2nd most important but Trent Williams who is the best tackle in the league is not more valuable to a team than a top 10 qb
Disagree with part 3. You cannot find a "franchise QB" through any way other than the draft. U cant get a guy that can be your cornerstone through free agency anymore. QB is the only position like this. U can get a star tackle, WR, CB, LB, and so on through free agency/trades that you can depend on for more than 5 years. Thats not possible with QBs. Ur only shot is drafting a good one. Plus, if u do draft a good one, you get 3-4 cheap years with him, unlike good QBs in free agency
The 49ers literally traded for Steve young from the bucs where he was seen as a bust. Brett favre drafted by the falcons, Trades to the packers after his rookie season. Drew Brees from the chargers to the saints after an almost career ending injury. This is false
Having a quarterback is like owning a house. Sure, you can get by as a homeless guy if you’ve got friends with couches or you’re resourceful with car/camping. The vast majority of homeless people, however, are down bad all day everyday. You can do well by as a renter, and for most people in most cities, renting is the easiest and most sensible thing to do. Investing in a home when your family/financial/career situation isn’t stable is a risk, and most people can’t afford the cost of admission to begin with. When everyone lays their head down at night, they know that owning a home is the only real path to building wealth and offers the greatest chance at stability. When you own a home, there’s always somewhere to go home to, there’s no landlords or leases to deal with, you are free to decorate and remodel it as you see fit. There’s a lot less worry and a lot more freedom, both in the home and financially as you build equity. It’s easy to get The Steelers, Raiders, Giants, and Saints are homeless, and they are living on the streets. The Lions, Falcons, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Jets, and Rams are true renters. Sure, what they’re renting costs about as much per year as owning a home, but they’re comfortable where they are now. They may move or change jobs soon, so they don’t want to settle down. The Titans are also renting, but they’re in a bad neighborhood. They hope that they can remodel it into something comfortable and maybe the neighborhood around them will get gentrified in the meantime too. If not, they’ll move again. The 49ers are a slightly different kind of renter. They have a pre-arranged opportunity to buy the property they’re renting anytime after March 2025. They really love it, but money’s tight, they were burned on a property they rushed into a few years ago, and technically speaking they can’t even make an offer yet. They probably would’ve paid for the property by now if they could, but unfortunately they have to wait, and prices rise every year. The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, and Eagles all own beautiful homes that they plan on staying in as long as they can. The Jaguars, Packers, Dolphins, and Cardinals all have homes they love, but they aren’t in as good a neighborhood as the teams above. The Texans took a chance on a somewhat overlooked property and it’s turned out to be the gem of the neighborhood. They will probably stay forever, but they need a few years to know for sure. The Browns overpaid for a home when the market was really high. It had some structural issues their contractor told them were fixable. So far, the issues are worse than expected, and they’re stuck in it for the long haul. The Bears invested in Nvidia a few years ago and their investment has grown exponentially. They used some of their money to buy the best new construction that’s been on the market in years. Will this home suit them for years to come? They can’t be certain, but the honeymoon phase has them feeling great. If it doesn’t work out, they’re still rich (for now) and can try again. Likewise, the Commanders and Patriots just bought 2 new homes in the same neighborhood as the Bears. Unfortunately, they are both broke now. All of their wealth is tied up in their houses. They hope that they can afford it in the long-term. If not, they have to start all over. The Broncos bought another new construction, cheaper than the others though. They also can’t be sure it’ll work out, but after a decade of renting they were ready to settle down. The Colts bought new construction last year. The price was incredible and they were tired of renting. Unfortunately, a freak flood forced them out of the house very shortly after moving in. They also aren’t sure if this is “it” for them, but hopes are still high after finally being able to move back in this summer. Finally, the Panthers. They bought a new construction home last year in the same neighborhood as the Texans. They were in love with the neighborhood and the design, so much so that they not only exhausted their entire savings, they also sold their cars, and had to get a co-signer to afford it. They got a new job around the same time, but that turned out to be a complete scam (Frank Reich)-the never got paid! They immediately fell behind on payments (no help or development for Bryce) and the stress of it all (losing spectacularly) has revealed they have a debilitating mental illness (David Tepper). They recently got a new job, are on medication, and are going to therapy (new coach and management), but the house still needs work and they’re still behind on payments. Things are looking bleak.
QB contribute the most wins above replacement compared to any other position in football. But their cap hit is also often a few times higher than good players at other positions. Intuitively, the assertion "QBs are overvalued" makes sense, since free agent QBs tend to be paid as if they're in the top 5 of their position pretty often. There are way more "top 5 contracts" than there are actual top 5 QBs, and thus some of them must be overvalued in a literal sense. The problem is making that evaluation correctly, in advance. The end of the video talks about building the situation around the QB first before getting them. That makes some sense, but you're kicking the can. Once that QB + cast performs well, now you must either let that QB go, or let his supporting cast go. Basically, the 49ers' situation. But hey, they made a few superbowls, and might have one more run in them. It does seem to be a fine strategy, despite that it will need resets every few years. Also, good luck keeping a great coaching staff for long!
You can listen to this guy or you can listen to the coaches, teammates, managers and scouts. You know people that actually have skin in the game, all of them will tell you QB is the most important position
In 95% of cases, having an elite QB alone doesn’t guarantee success, but you can’t win a SB without one. Exceptions are if they get hot at the exact right moment or the rest of your team is dynastic.
“Same results” 😂 eh. Historically inaccurate. The great QBs win at a highly disproportionate rate. Patrick Mahomes is running roughshod over the league at the moment.
Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Fran Tarkenton. All in the HOF, none won rings. Moon and Fouts didn't appear in a SuperBowl. Philip Rivers may end up in the Hall. Plenty of great ones never win one.
I think two things can be true at the same time: a truly elite QB can elevate your team and take you to the next level… however, that team still has to be present and at least decent to take advantage of this boost. An average/somewhat above average team with an elite QB will go on to do some pretty great things, but… an elite team can do these pretty great things regardless of who is under center. In fact, you would truly have to have an entirely incompetent QB, head coach, and front office to hinder an elite roster and elite team. As in, this QB would TRULY have to be bad, the head coach not be able to scheme up plays to overcome this bad QB play, and for the front office to do nothing to fix the QB play issue. If you have an elite team with a bad QB, literally all you have to do is trade/draft for even an average or somewhat decent QB. So, with all that said, as an NFL GM, statistically speaking your top priority should be building up talent evenly across your roster before giving up immense draft capital and burning your salary cap space on an elite QB. The Panthers will not put themselves in a position to win a Super Bowl by trading all their first round picks for the foreseeable future and several of their top players to acquire Patrick Mahomes. However… I would bet a team like the 49ers could remain competitive and likely still make it to the Super Bowl by trading Brock Purdy for a decent, serviceable veteran QB on a budget contract and some draft capital for the future.
If you have a team with good OLine, good offensive weapons and a decent mid tier defense, there is a glut of QBs that you can win with. I believe this is going to be more so going forward.
As soon as you said Jon Bois I started to see the resemblance lol. Great video. My one tip would be to maybe make the graphs easier to read. For example with the current gen qb’s you could have the years next to each dot and the rushing attack and defence graph I would have flipped the y axis personally
