The Breakdown of the Republican Coalition (Trump's Fault?) || Peter Zeihan 

Frum is predicting the same thing: Trump can't hold a coalition together, and the Dem factions will come home facing the alternative.

He’s certainly all in. Just glad he isn’t “moving to Canada” if Trump wins.

I think pretty accurate. I was a 216 Trump voter for various reasons too long to get into. But I realized that Trump also talked more than acted and when he acted he acted like a Democrat. He just loved to hear his own voice and out of his boasting and voice MAGA was born which quite a few former Trump voters are disgusted about. They are behaving cult like and have made Trump into a god. In the end I do not see that they alone can pull it out in the general.

@@JG-MV a few thousand votes in democrat strongholds does not equal a “decisive victory” 2022 was the last election democrats steal, or it’s game over

@@TommyBlantonMaybe, just maybe, many will…want to move to somewhere…Canada or anywhere else if… there is so much going on in this new age of politics…even we, Canadians, are wary of the actual cycle ( as we should all be)…😢

They're not, but they are who everyone is polling for.

You can thank rich donors of both parties for that. They pull the strings. We desperately need publicly funded campaigns and a change from first past the post elections. Approval voting is my favorite voting system.

@@Alexadria205 Yes, but... The rich donors have backed Desantis and Haley... Hasn't worked out for them. In fact, it made Desantis kowtow to his donors and alienate possible supporters.

It's like Peter said. The 1 member per district system makes it only really work with 2 main candidates. If another Republican-like party ran it would help Biden win and if another Democrat-like party ran it would help the Republican nominee win. The only way to realistically change things is by pushing an amendment to the electoral system

Vivek ramaswamy

Almost everything he said, was wrong, and does not describe the current system at all. His predictions will all fail because he doesn’t understand anything about American politics.

@@seaneustace9838 Which part was wrong?

@@Odin029 He's definitely wrong. Trump isn't up in the polls for no reason. He's more popular thank you think.

Yes, other than the fact that it completely gets everything wrong. We don’t generally call that nuance, we caught getting everything wrong.

100% I dont know a single person who supports trump out loud now that hes all over Epstein Island

As someone who studied LatAm history in college I always found the term to be extremely stupid.

Musk will be so disappointed to hear this.

Theres Nothing quite like white college academics trying to force a race to use a fabricated term, in the name of being culturally sensitive of course.

The dumbest part is english already HAS a gender neutral term, just fucking 'Latin'. We literally call it Latin music and Latin food, we use it for everything else.

White woke liberals see you as an ally of white supremacy. But then again, they see the killing of the Jews of Israel to be an act of decolonisation, so don't worry about upsetting them.

Save the video yourself. PZ has a tendency to scrub his incorrect predictions.

He is living in the past. Many traditional Democrats are pro-Trump while many in the suburbs are starting to lean left. Its as if he doesn't understand demography

You are absolutely spot on! All of the political wonks are thinking in terms of "votes for," instead of "votes against" and this is where they go off the rails, Peter included.

True, however, it’s also about bringing people out to vote. Trump supporters are highly motivated. No one is highly motivated to vote for Biden, and it’s less of a motivating factor now to vote against Trump (compared to 2020, where Trump got the 2nd highest number of votes of any candidate ever)

@@aibarra4141 Abortion is the motivating issue this time around. And Trump can easily motivate the opposition, since he is on video stating that he believes women seeking abortions need to be punished.

@@NickYankee Abortion today is out of control. Women are using it as a form of birth control. It’s an issue that actually only affects a relatively small percentage of people. Because women are a little over half of the population. Probably half of the women in America can’t have a baby because of age or other reasons. Then also over half would never have an abortion for moral reasons. So when you actually get down to it, it’s a relatively small number of people that are affected by abortion. Go back and look at the history of abortion. Roe was flawed and a joke, and RBG has even admitted that. That is the thing that started the biting America. And it was based on garbage not the constitution. And it is an issue that belongs at the state level because it has no standing under the constitution. Also, when it was passed, it was supposed to basically limit abortion to 12 weeks because even then it was supposed to be something very rarely used. It was supposed to be only when necessary. Even the Democrats even Bill Clinton, and Hillary Clinton originally said abortion should be very rare. Rare and limited. But now the Democrats want lake term abortions for healthy babies that is straight up murder. Almost all of Europe limits abortion to 12 or 13 weeks. The Democrats are actually out of tune with probably 80% of America on this issue. But a few states have tried to make it illegal even for raping incest, which is stupid. Because even pro life, people understand that there are certain situations where an abortion should be allowed. Making that a national issue is ridiculous. Fight that out in your state. Also, Peter has a serious case of Trump derangement syndrome and he’s a left-wing guy so he’s very biased when he comes to this stuff.

@NickYankee you’re right, abortion is motivating across the aisle and independents. I’m not sure if it’s as strong of a factor in the Presidential race vs state/local elections. I don’t think Trump has ever said that women seeking abortions need to be punished. I’m open to being wrong. But Trump dodges abortion question and redirects to it that he got the conservative Justices into SCOTUS.. when people think of Trump, it’s the big lie, not his abortion stance.

Find myself frequently quoting my Dad (I call them 'nuggets of wisdom'); "those who say it can't be done are generally upstaged by those who don't know any better!"

Yea I don’t think anyone knows or can be sure right now, there was “no way Trump would win” in 2016. In the current climate I would not bet against him. I’m not confident he will win but with RFK making waves I really don’t think this is predictable at all.

I started out liking PZ and he keeps putting allowing himself to be used by sources.

You can look at the top Democrats and see they think Trump will win. Anyone that isn't delusional sees that Joe shouldn't be running a lawn care service nevermind a country.

You like delusional fairy tales, Peter lives in the land of facts. Follow the numbers and remember which candidate overturned Roe v Wade? Remind what the majority gender in this country is? What happened in 2020 and 2022, red wave, nah. Numbers don't lie. Delusional idiots do.

They never do. It doesn’t help that outside of demographics and geography. Peter thinks he understands things he clearly does not US politics would be in that category. Here’s a suggestion for Peter, but I don’t think he will take stop getting your politics from ideologues of the left and right Ideology blinds people

@@seaneustace9838 The price of food and gasoline is a better indicator.

He's from Colorado that's why

Oi mate doesn't mean he's right.

idk if i would consider the trump base to be the whole/most of the republican party anymore. its hard to say.

Speak truth to power (the public) without fear or favour.

But he’s not, really. The people he’s pissing off are the MAGA hardcore, the so called “base”. These are the most active (and loud), so they often are the deciding votes in primaries, but their stridency, not to mention their delusions, has been alienating ordinary conservative voters since 2020, if not longer. Back in 2015 there were some of us that saw Trump for what he was and could not support him. Unfortunately we were a small minority, but we’ve been growing. We grew enough by 2020 that Trump lost the election. Sadly, a large amount of non-MAGA Republicans will still vote for Trump because they have problems with Biden. But I don’t think they’re the types that would get mad at Pete for stating the simple facts. It’s the delusional cult members that will loudly argue with Peter.

It's definitely some academic types who take offense at the gendered words in Spanish, yet it's ridiculous to try and change a language which you, presumably, do not speak yourself. Can I ask, does the term Latin, rather than Latino, bother you at all?

@@scottduncan92 When talking about my ethnicity, Latino or Hispanic are accurate and it doesn’t bother me at all. In fact, I prefer it. But it’s annoying when my nationality or heritage are assumed.

That's what left wing politics is all about these days. And why working class voters tend to be Trump voters.

Never mind the fact, the word "Latin" comes from descendants of the Romans/Latin Europe. France, is a Latin country. My family in Italy thinks Italians are "Latin" in the US. It doesn't make sense anywhere but in the US.

@@iceromebuzz781 that’s true. Which is why Hispanic is also interchangeably used when talking about a Spanish-speaking population. I’d rather Americans pushing for LatinX use Hispanic since it is a unisex word except for in Spanish (hispano/hispana) and they’re focusing on the Spanish side of it anyways.

Yes.. but now people who were willing to take a chance in 2016 have seen him govern and had to deal with 8 years of this tantrums. I know many Republicans, Independents and even Democrats who voted for Trump as a protest in 2016 who will not vote for him again.

@@jakenunya1587 That may be the case, but he's picking up votes from both the hispanic and black communities this go round. He's also polling higher than Biden in both head to head and favorability ratings.

2016 was a fluke election aided by Russian troll farms. It's been nonstop losses for trump's republican party since then. 🤠

@@jakenunya1587 Yep, every one of my Republican friends either voted against Trump in 2020, or just didn't vote. Even some of my pro-Trump family members I suspect might have said they were voting for him in public, but then left the box blank in the voting booth in 2020. In public they feel they still need to be part of the team, but even they were frightened by his dictatorial tendencies. Family members that used to chant Trumps name, but now only quietly grumble about Biden instead. The signs are subtle, but they are there.

I voted for him the first time. Won't make that mistake again. If he wasn't such a virulent, narcissistic putz, he would step out of the race for the good of the party and the good of the country, and let a Haley or DeSantis clean Joe Biden's clock.

Donald J. Trump just won the 2024 Election.==> ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-v2SGEY5dm-E.html

Joe and the Ho are gonna go. Don't worry.

2016 the thumb on the scale was not applied hard enough. 2020 fixed that but looked absurd.

The main issue I see for Trump is the same issue I saw for Hillary...it is hard to overcome the otherside coming out to vote against you. It is hard enough to get people to come out and vote for you but when the otherside hates you so much they will come out to to vote against you for spite that is hard to overcome.

He had the benefit of nobody knowing what he was in 2016. At this point let’s be real the VAST majority of people who do vote already know how they feel about Trump and he is hyper popular if you have an R next to your name, but a lot of people outside of the Party despise him

Yeah, this is weird.

Plus more Hispanics voted for Trump the second time lol

So, when polling gave the odds of winning to Shrillary in 2016, they were BS, but now you use them to make Trump a shoe-in? This is not a serious (or useful) comment.

My Texas conservative family voted Republican their entire adult lives, and now either refuse to vote or plan to pinch their nose and vote for Biden. If my traditional Southern mom is so vexed by Trump, I'd be worried that this anecdote isn't so unique.

Don't forget the fraud machine. Expect Zuckerberg, et al to donate 100's of millions of dark money to "Fortify the election".

Zeihan about every third video he does has to say “ I was wrong about that” on just about everything. I m going to have fun watching Zeihans career end when Trumps elected. I felt Zeihan had a real original book but I’m finding the more he talks the more he’s wrong. 😢

I suspect this is nothing but propaganda. It's historically very effective. Social media has changed that. Especially if and when we're on a level playing field.

@@dougarchbold1489 You are delusional. I will hold you to your comments.

@@randolphscottseamons3684 Right! With AI doing lots of the work, you’re going to see a lot more of it!

@@dougarchbold1489 His credibility is going out the window quickly!

I love listening to Peter on many things, but I doubt we’d get a fair opinion. Anyone who actually listens to RFK jr. quickly will realize he’s the only grown up in the room and is the only person capable of healing the divide, but those in power are demonizing him worse than they did Trump, and he’s the only candidate in history that the sitting president has refused protection for. A genuinely honorable man that I say protection prayers for every day. ❤️

The heart wants what the heart can’t have. I noticed the same thing during the first lockdowns in 2020. Never saw more people walking around outside.

Yeah he's getting his party waffle stomped and two elections so far and he's going to get them waffle stomped in a third. But his followers see that as a challenge not as an obvious outcome which it is. Nobody really likes Biden but if the alternative is this dude dear Lord.

@@pathkeepersPeople are fed up at this point. Biden is already losing black vote majorly. Democrats are losing Jews as a whole and normal humans that are democrats are realizing their party is splitting from the far left on the Gaza issue.

Exactly, and the Democrats figured this out, which is why they’re throwing every legal tactic against him. The Democrats *WANT* Trump to be the GOP nominee, and they know that all they have to do to get the MAGA base riled up and energized is to go after Trump. That MAGA base will then be an energized enough coalition in the Primaries to push Trump through as the nominee. A candidate like DeSantis or Haley would actually be a pretty solid threat against Biden, since they don’t have the baggage that Trump has with the Independents. The Dems don’t want a Haley or DeSantis candidate, and they know that MAGA is purely reactionary, so all they have to do is attack Trump. Pretty easy and solid tactic. But, barring any huge change in the political landscape (which, I know, is a laughable caveat in 2024), Biden is going to absolutely demolish Trump, and I’m not a Biden supporter in the least. My main fear is the potential for terrorism after that, because MAGA is going to be convinced that there’s no way unpopular with the general population, so they’re going to believe that the election was stolen.

Trump was spot on on most issues. His annoying personality quirks are the problem. Hopefully many sane conservatives, independents and former democrats can ask themselves if they were better off under trump or biden and see an obvious answer and vote appropriately.

Look up the old meaning of "an act of Congress".

Not in the legal world though.

It just means "a group". That's why it's a "party of 5" at a restaurant and a "search party".

Sounds like the same thing!!! LOL 😂

Political gatherings are a party 🎉. Food, drink, fun, that's how you get workers to go do get out the vote campaigns

Well neither side has any kind of plan. They have campaign promises that don't have the attention span to actually work on the complexity of the issue.

Hey we need immigration reform Where's the Republican trump plan? Build walls that have never worked in the history of mankind? That might work on the really uneducated 80-year-old demographic, But once again alienating educated voters that know most immigration to legal happens from overstay visas. Right now Republicans could probably get something through that makes sense but they're too busy running sham impeachments because that's what Trump wants. Otherwise they've done almost nothing.

​@@jayb6765 Plan? What kind of Plan do you need other than to follow the Rule of Law...oh! Silly me you mean the one where Democrats allow, no, encourage illegal aliens to enter the country un-thwarted then advocate for citizenship to gain an electoral majority, that Plan. You want Republicans to go along with that plan? How about a plan where these illegal aliens are deported to their first country of sanctuary, which is not a plan at all but rather following the Rule of Law.

Your options for immigration in 2024 are building a wall or additional pathways for expediting legal immigration. If immigration is your issue these are your current political options.

@@austinduke8876And we know republicans won't do anything if their last 4 year track record is examined, so maybe we can get something done with two blue branches.

My number one political goal from when I first became able to vote in 2004 was to get enough control of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade. I'm gonna vote for the man who actually got that done and didn't just talk about it. Whatever the hell else he wants to do is fine with me.

@MrBenMcLean "Whatever the hell else he wants to do is fine with me." That is putting a politician on the level of God. Again, sad. PS: If your goal was to reduce abortions, how is that working out? PSS: Almost any GOP candidate would have picked anti Roe vs. Wade judges. Trump was just following the standard corporate GOP playbook.

Trump lies less then the rest of them not saying much but it's true and I rather see another guy be president then trump and definitely not biden again

I think that's partly true but also partly an illusion - keep in mind that media cycles are always driven by negativity - even if a candidate has a whole portfolio of policies they espouse, only the grievances are going to get any air time

@sillyquiet I listen to what trump actually says and posts. In 2016 he would repeat "build that wall and have Mexico pay for it", "lock her up" and "repeal and replace Obamacare." He completed none of them, without losing his base. He learned a lesson; why promise anything, no one cares. This time, he is as vague as can be...at best he is going to make things "great" or "better" with no real specifics. The only thing he is consistent about is REVENGE.

that‘s very secretly…

PZ works for the deep state, & must say these things. 😅

That is good news.

That’s fantastic news

It’s called common sense.

It called the great realignment

What realignment, for those of us outside the US?

doesn't effect outside the US. the neocon and neoliberal factions have failed to suppress opposition.@@mrgyani

Fourth Turning

@@mrgyani Populism causing things like Trump and Brexit to keep the political establishment from having too much control over major institutions.

They have said that ever since I cast my first presidential election vote in 1968.

the TDS is strong in this one.

I think he probably knows better, but he also knows who pays him.

To be honest he's absolutely right, but he says the truth and idiots like to believe politics is their Identity for some stupid reason so they don't want to hear the things that don't make them happy.

@@peetky8645His analysis isn’t wrong though. Very few see the fault lines on the Republican side but they’re there. A lot of conservatives are pissed at Trump and he isn’t even trying to mend anything.

Or unlike most Muricans, he can think objectively, which pisses off every other Yank.

Nah

Except in 2016, the majority said f-you through Trump, the new candidate. And now, having actually lived with him for four years, many want to say f-you *at* Trump.

@@guydreamr Those people are the ones who voted agaisnt him in 2016 so nothing has really changed

@@theliato3809 Actually, plenty *has* really changed, namely that Trump is no longer the change candidate that many swing voters went for in 2016. Now, at least some of those voters have reviewed his record and have decided they don't like what they see. Therefore, Trump is going to have a harder row to hoe this go-round. Not impossible mind you, but harder.

@@guydreamr We went from Trump to Biden and suddenly realized how far of a drop in quality we got in our leadership. There is a very high cost to voting Democrat. Biden was their best and brightest. That says a lot.

Agreed. Everything he says makes me think he’s involved with the intelligence community.

He's at his best when he has actual data to back him up. This is not one of those times.

@@pathkeepers Peter is in the Strategy community, which is intelligence-adjacent. And especially now that he's got influence, they're clearly feeding him information they want to get out there. It's still fascinating to listen to him on these subjects, for insight into the ruling classes' assumptions and preferences.

Lol please can't you tell all this guy does is repeat CNN talking point he is con artists lol so obvious

@@jimluebke3869 good point - he is a window into the soul of the deep state.

He’s a tool. The only way Trump loses is if they ban him off the ballot (rioting and possible civil war), and if they rig the election (rioting and civil war).

Being AGAINST the Republican party helped him in 2016 and it will only help him now. He had the likes of the Bush and Cheney clans (clans Peter is a fan of because they make war and war makes money) but the fact Bushes and Cheneys despised him only makes him a hero to Republican voters.

It’s not a hedge, it’s a hypothetical.

Not to mention that he has been predicting the collapse of China in the next decade since 2010.

Peter will slowly fade away as Trump becomes president for a 2nd term and China dos Not collapse. What will he tell us then?

You need to look into the vote-counting shenanigans in the 2020 election. Not the bulls**t about shootouts in Frankfurt, but the fact that mail-in votes came in from empty lots, and other such instances. "Well, 'A' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election." " Well, 'B' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election." "Well, 'C' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election." But some of us can add A + B + C...

Maybe you were actually right the 2nd time. With 47 million mail-in ballots, pretty easy to win from your basement.

My logic states that Trump has alienated more of his supporters than in 2016. If the Dems continue to run Biden, who is less threatening then some young radical progressive, more of us from the GOP will vote for Biden, who is safe.

If Trump couldn't win, Dems would not be trying to keep him off the ballot soviet-style.

ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-MIdUSqsz0Io.html He was wrong, he predicted stability if you put any monkey in power. He got the war on Ukraine right.

Donald J. Trump just won the 2024 Election.==> ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-v2SGEY5dm-E.html

Well, he’s a huge supporter of the global system as it was back then. He certainly wouldn’t have voted for a populist no matter what side of the aisle they were on.

Predicted, not voted for.

a Hilary win.

You must not be in California. Here we have 'open' elections for all but the Presidential candidates. The primary list for each office is usually long and can include multiple Dems and Repubs. The top two, regardless of party affiliation, go on to the general election and the one with the most votes wins. Especially with 'open' seats it usually ends up being a Dem vs a Dem or a Repub vs a Repub in the general election.

Well, waddaya knxw

You don’t even have to get to that point with all the money in politics the top one percent get to pick eight or nine candidates for both parties before the people ever get to vote. This means by definition they have already chosen everyone that is acceptable to them as a leader And if you want to vote for someone outside of this group, you can’t because every law in place makes it so it is hard to enter an election unless you do it two or three years ahead of time in other words even when we have fair elections unlike in 2020 the system is rigged and it is rigged by the wealthy for their own advantage . Fortunately, for that most people are too stupid to figure this out.

Watching George Bush and McCain in the early primary elections. Bush locked in the big donors as McCain was gaining. Bush had worked on his father campaign specifically on fund raising and had those people on speed dial. So I would say whoever raises the most money becomes the candidate. Hey, Trump has been raising money since November 4, 2020.

@@artistforfreedom At the Presidential level, yes. And senators, given that they run state-wide. But individual legislative districts can nominate and endorse candidates that the central committees really don't care for.

It will make a difference for Young voters. How many Young voters upset over Gaza (and not just middle class educated Arab & Muslim Americans) will hold thier nose and vote Biden, or just stay home? Meanwhile, a new generation of young, "red pilled" socially conservative (both White and Minorities) cohorts plan to vote against him.

So do the candidates.... If they want party money and backing, they must ally themselves. Now it's even more divided in that there are factions on a spectrum, instead of left and right, further dividing people and politics. If only we had options of people and multiple platforms. Those in real control of the country are the RNC AND DNC.

There are hundreds of parties in America.

Like Janus, the two headed god, our political system will never be overcome from within. Power corrupts. Most who seek power ought rightly be barred therefrom. Voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil. It’s past time we adopt a system in which evil is not an option on the ballot. This system has been hijacked by vested interests. "The end of democracy and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations." ~ Thomas Jefferson

​@@warfarenotwarfair5655Please, there's only 2 serious ones.

Disabuse yourself of the notion there is no political salvation, try Jesus. The wealthy elites have already read the system. You only get to vote on the people they already voted on. By the time you get to vote, they already picked 20 or so people that will become the next president. They never approved of Trump but he had money to over, throw them and win the election, he even did it without spending much of that money. And they were talking about impeaching him before he was even inaugurated.

thing is we're not getting a savior with either. one aims to destroy the constitution and strip away the freedoms of every American. the other will simply stave off the threat and buy a little more time for us to figure our shit out. we can survive bad policy, we cant survive the destruction of democracy.

I've been seeing RFK Jr. signs on some people's lawns around where I live. People considering voting for that Russian shill and drug addict shows just how desperate so many are for a third alternative. Sadly, I dont think we'll have a good third alternative this election cycle.

quadrupling the price of food?? It's always been expensive here but it's not even been 1.5x. where you getting 4x??

tRumps supporting clown. Food has NOT gone up 4 fold. But hey LYING and BREATHING are the same thing for you people.

@@kneesnap1041I live in a Philly suburb. We shop at Wegmans and Traders Joe, both are considered “expensive” compared to other chains. Price on food is barely up milk, cereal, eggs, sugar, etc. We can talk about rising rent, but to say “food price is quadrupled” is complete bonkers. What? A gallon of milk is $20????? $10? No, it’s still around $5-6. Sugar? Coffee? Meat? All my quality steaks cuts are still around $15-20 just like 5 years ago.

​@@kneesnap1041 Large cities, Atlanta and NYC, have reported some weird spikes over last year. Fresh produce a prime example

@@kneesnap1041 oh he's lying because he has Trump Derangement Syndrome Syndrome. Whenever anyone says anything bad about the cult leader he'll just chant the mantra "TDS, TDS" or "whatabout Hillary" (or probably Biden now) Anyone who says they support Trump after he tried to steal the election is truly deranged. Sadly thats about 50% of voters

He'll give the reason why 😅

He's just outside his house. But I get what you say about avalanches. I do backcountry skiing, and I'm pretty fearful of those conditions.

So blatant fascism and idiot racism is less dangerous to the union? Good to know.

The overwhelming majority of American voters are Democrat and progressive Independent who have the same disdain for Republicans and their fascist ideas and policies, and the serial criminal they support.

So happy to see this and other similar comments. Dems have gone over a cliff since 2008. I hope they come back, otherwise things could get ugly.

You need to get out more. You clearly have never, ever listened to any conservative. Maybe you should shut up and listen.

Conservatives simply don't see the issues this way.

That’s why I’ve said Obama and Trump ran extremely similar elections. Used sexy phrases that meant nothing and everyone got to define for themselves what those terms meant.

Yes We Can what

Again the superficial. The Iraq war was very unpopular, and the Republicans ran a war monger in the person of John McCain, and and Romney, who is with men capital a quintessential American chop shop that buys in debt and extract money from companies, leaving them in horrible positions and making it so they’re employees will never make any money as a company is indebted in order to pay gigantic profits to the chop shop owner, which sells off all the companies, good assets and ruins the company. Americans understood exactly what Ron they was. They understood exactly what John McCain was. Obama had no competition at all, and Bush was hated. See how that’s a little less superficial than what he said. Obama also ran on getting us out of Afghanistan, but never did.

@@karlkobler218 Except Trump actually brought Americans being held hostage home, got the open border under control, masterminded the peace accords in the Middle East, stood up to China, didn't get us in any wars, held the European "allies" accountable, and put dictators from Turkey, to N. Korea, to Russia on notice. The dictators knew this man was not to be trifled with. Obama? Got us into multiple wars and let China walk in America and didn't give a rip that our borders were being overrun. Obama also spent 8 years blaming White Americans for everything while his "problematic" mother raised him as his communist black African father abandoned the family.

@@Muzakman37 Vegetables.

Most of my young friends have moved to Florida or Texas

Yet Republicans are running _against_ Social Security, go figure.

Nope, older voters have never become more conservative. The young voters are just always more progressive than the old generation, because the world keeps moving forward. People in the 19th century didn't start becoming racists overnight as they got older, they were that way their whole life and then got old and died.

@@naitruan true enough, but they are more conservative relative to society as whole, even if in fact they are staying the same, which comes to the same thing.

@@glenrotchin5523 No, there's a significant difference. The person who grows old as a conservative has been voting conservative all their life. When they grow old, this does not increase the number of conservative votes. And then they die, and their generation ends, and the people who thought like them are no longer around. While on the flipside, the young generation is always more progressive as they old generation, and they only seem to be more conservative as they grow older because the next young generation is even more progressive. That's why things have been shifting more and more progressive over time. End to slavery, woman's rights, rights for minorities, acceptance of gay and trans people. Every generation is more progressive than the one preceeding it.

What economic situation?? GDP growth was 4.9% in the third quarter. Inflation was 3.1 percent through the end of November but for the month of November itself it was 0 1%. Unemployment for the third quarter was 3.9%

@@vanindallas I'm sure reciting statistics from the BLS will appease those voters. The inflation stat shell game is legendary. GDP is similarly meaningless. You can pay workers to dig and fill ditches to increase GDP.

@@vanindallas government "data" is about as factual as our "news." (1) GDP includes government spending, as a metric of economic health it is of not much use. (2) The government's official inflation rate is (and has long been) about 1/2 the actual rate. They do this to minimize fixed outlays such as social security and veterans benefits, etc. (3) Employment data is outrageously misleading ... just as anyone in finance.

Yeah Peter Zeihan is looking at the macro too much here from a liberal perspective. Hating the libs is bigger on the right than dislike of disagreement, or dislike of a criminal. Trump is going to win this fairly easily. 28% Biden approval being ignored. Israel fallout being ignored, fair likely to be a regional war with Iran at the time of the election or at least the results of his policy in Palestine will be evident for a decade. The cost of living still being ignored, or at least the perception of it. Biden's age or competence in debate being ignored. Populism on the right is ascendent and welcomed, populism on the left is vilified and hated deflating the vote - The dems have shaved a lot of their voters away, and the hollow sounds this time around of vote blue no matter who sound absurd when America is almost a fascist dictatorship - Go see the themes of fascism on wikipedia and see how many it ticks. - Then know that the dems are trying to fix the primaries by removing all other candidates and mainstream media is desperate to pretend they don't exist. America is a complete farce. Sure Trump is a criminal and that will turn off some independent voters, but the dems are doing the most they possibly can to deflate their own vote and remove independent support as well. Its a boomer race to the bottom, from a narcissistic generation that never could give up an inch of control to their children.

You should literally be questioning the legitimacy of the government that dared to throw you into camps during Covid and those citizens who allowed it.

Problem is Trump is gaining voters who were known to be dem controlled.

The spitevote is underrated. It also explains why so many politicans are such goofy people without any bite or bark, because they are not hated as much.

That's because people They were emotional now with Biden economic and social catastrophic people start using logic They want someone is strong bad boy type

Exactly. The problem is most of them aren't even sure why they hate him. In this country we have too many uneducated voters & too many people who vote with their emotions rather than common sense!

It's sad but true. I was not a Trump fan at all. Never liked him for 40 years. But there was no way I was going to vote for Hillary.

Dems have created far more lightning rods - covid restrictions, 1st amendment, 2nd amendment, DEI, taxes, open border policy, support to Ukraine, weak foreign policy, and no enforcement of laws.

Women have more reason to vote than men. When R v. W was overturned, the R’s painted themselves into a corner. A majority of Americans believe in access to safe abortions, and Tuberville is just another example of old white men playing their base, and out of touch with the majority of voters.

Yep. Trump and the Republicans are doing everything they can to help Democrats. He is still rising in the polls. Why is that?

Do remember when Bernie had the Democrat nomination sewed up in 2016 until the Party cast 600 "reserved" delegate votes for Crooked Hillary? There ain't no such thing as an honest Democrat election. The Globalists own you people.

Probably more, but you are correct. Biden will easily win popular vote. It's irrelevant. Swing states; Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia will decide the election. Most states are guaranteed to go one way or the other.

The best system they ever invented. All one has to do is look how the big cities in California and New York, determine what all the rural must do, with out of touch policies. We understand it, as a hedge against too much power concentrated. No tyranny of the majority.

@@aBRUSHforCONFUCIUS So you're saying you prefer a tyranny of the minority? (Because that's the general effect of giving the votes of some people 3 to 5 times as much weight as the votes of others.)

@@RD-jc2eu Who wants to enforce things on other people? Oh it's city folk. But please tell me more about how rural folk are tyrants for pushing back on city people running everything.

@@aBRUSHforCONFUCIUShmm, the problem is…out of touch for who? As Peter just pointed out, Americans are not a monolith. If urbanites make policy, it’s out of touch for rural voters. If rural people make policy, guess what it’s out of touch for urban voters. Pretending like one faction has ‘the answer’ is silly, no matter which side you support.

Oz just so happens to be one of the few countries that Trump actually admires hahahaha

Agreed. I think Peter is letting his biases dictate his reasoning. I say this as a Democrat who once voted for Biden.

Yeah he sounds 10 years out of date with his perspective on voting blocks. There have been massive shifts since Obama.

The problem is that his votes among minorities are hardly decisive. They're not going to tip the balance in his favor.

Yeah NGL Peter sounds like he's a DeSantis voter in here. LOL. I don't even like Trump, but he's clearly carved the largest voting block of white blue collar workers away from democrats, yes, they'll still get the money from the union heads donating in blocks to Democrats, but their votes clearly went to Trump since 2016. Trump won more votes than Obama in 2020, as well as a higher % of the black and latino vote than any republican in history, and that's while being sandbagged by Covid and being bogged down by scandals during his presidency. Now he's going to come in with people remembering the good 'ol days of cheaper gas and a functional economy, whether he contributed to it or not, the memory is still there. And for all of the scandals and chaos in his first run, he still would've won 2020 were it not for a global pandemic in Covid and some strange voting patterns created by mail in votes.

I agree, it's interesting to see dems partially laying claim to the foreign policy & business legs of the traditional republican "three-legged stool", while Trump lays claim to some of labor & Latinos. Whether this realignment sticks around depends, imo, on how strong the isolationist/protectionist vein in the republican party remains after Trump leaves the scene due to (probably) old age.

... and he didn't win last time either.

Trump lost the last time.

Except that now we know exactly who we're dealing with, having lived with him for four years.

that has nothing to do with 2024. and he lost in 2020. it would be hard for him to win this time. could be done, but not likely.

@@Michael-le5ph How many people regret voting for Biden in 2020? About 1 in 6 of his supporters said they regretted it, as soon as the Hunter Biden laptop came out. Serious inflation, based to a great extent on our s**cidal energy policies, the war on automobiles (which wrecks workers' productivity and even labor market participation), the fact that Democrats are pursuing strategies 100% opposed to young people owning houses and starting families -- all of these are anchors around Biden's neck.

True if everyone was anti immigration but we are split between anti immigration people and those that want immigrants treated better and a systemic change. Those people would never vote for Trump.

BS I dont know any one even remotely concerned with illegal immigrants. Most of my neighbors here in Dallas happily pay these so-called "illegals" to watch their kids , sell them their fruits & veggies, and do their landscaping. Have you visited any housing building sites lately? Please do so and tell me th language and nationality of 80% of those workers building those new homes ?

Literally could not be further from the truth, nobody fucking cares about illegal immigration unless they watched Fox News.

Trump will win again by protest vote. It will not be a vote for Trump. It will be a vote against the Democrats. I think Peter, among many other “thought leaders“ drastically underestimate the utter disdain people have for the Biden administration. They will either vote for Trump, vote for one of the many third-party candidates if they are truly disgusted with both major parties, or completely sit out. The coalition that carried Biden’s half dead corpse over the finish line in 2020 has fractured. You can blame Biden’s actions on Gaza for the straw that broke the camels back

It's not a big concern for the majority of Americans, though.

Exactly! Same here

anyone actually do it

He worked at the NYT which is always wrong and on the wrong side of history.

He must be mad, I wont be tuning in to his nonsense again.

He didn't say they were good candidates, he said they ran on specific policy issues, which is why they didn't do as well as someone like Obama, who gave rousing speeches but left his policy positions more vague.

Qualified. Competent... e forgot corrupt and evil.

That’s not what he said though. He said they were candidates that were “a little bit brainy” and addressed specific policy issues which that led to an intra-party split. I swear, as soon as a topic turns to domestic politics there is an entire subset of people ready to be upset or offended. And if there isn’t something there to be upset about, folks like you will just make it up.

It's the propaganda and brainwashing. I've heard from several people who don't believe those things ever happened.

You may want to watch that full clip were he said that, he wasn't saying what you have been lead to believe.

@@kyledrake9208 sheep programmed by selectively clipped soundbites... there are a lot of them.

​@@kyledrake9208what about when he had dinner with a known white supremacists

Total agreement. As I see it, for the last few decades, the Dems have been leaning into centrist policies, picking up new support there. The Republicans, OTOH, went in the opposite direction, to the extreme right - the paranoids and xenophobes, the Religious Reich, etc.. The Mango Mussolini didn't start the crazy, it was already there and he basically just lit the fuse.

@@7thsealord888 Do you actually think the Democrats moved to the center?

Yeah, the Democrats are a center-right party to begin with. There is a leftist minority within it, they get almost all the media attention. Just like the far-out MAGAs in their Uncle Sam costumes get lots of media attention. The media loves to pit extreme characters against each other, it's dramatic. In reality, the GOP is still the big-business, low-taxes- for-millionaires party and the Democrats are still the elite/ union/ minorities coalition, as well as being pro-big-business.

@@ryankuypers1819I do

@@ryankuypers1819 strange how they started demonizing the USA, white people, straight people, people who are successful, and Christians as they went center. LOL. Dems have been embracing marxism and the hard left more and more since 2008. They should have went the opposite way, but the first black president was mostly hype and little performance so doubled down on the "America is racist" trope AFTER being elected. Dems are a mixed bag, but there are far more fanatics within the dems than there are within the republicans.

Peter? Where did he go? What’s that pile of snow?

Peter's huffing and puffing is contributing to Global Warming.

Peter is a smart feller but when he stirs the Trump shit pile... Well then he's a fart smeller

Let's see Brad let's see crossing my fingers and hope he's right nonetheless 🤞🏼❤️🇺🇸

another example of Peter twisting the truth

@@OFF-GRIDPhenohunt He's falling firmly under "team narrative" on that one, much in the same way that he ignores the Electoral College being a feature as opposed to a bug. Most of the smaller colonies would never have ratified the Constitution without it.

I enjoy and like his views points, even if I disagree with him. This one I disagree with him. As Army Officer myself, this is not really angering anybody at least I know, in fact the opinion I hear from most officers is either amusement or support. Even among the O5 and O6's. I think he does not understand that there is deep resentment of ground leaders against the General Officers. There has been breakdown of enforcement of standards, that the General Officers help fosters, the loss in Afghanistan, discouragement any Esprit De Corps. So any accountability on the Generals in any form is generally welcomed. Also in talking with another Officer, who is Pro Choice, made a good point that if the DOD is using money to support Abortion, which is against the law, why is it being allowed by the General Officers. We as Officers are supposed to enforce the standards, and the General Officers are not enforcing the standard. So Congress has full right to do this if the DOD is not following the law. You can it flip back on him saying the DOD is putting US security at risk for refusing follow law given to them by Congress, and Congress is using their power to force the DOD to follow the Law.

@@nosacchfry8458 Much of the General Officers capable of winning were purged under Obama. Those were also the General Officers more likely to oppose much of what you indicated. The political desire to impose diversity over merit flies in the face of everything the US military has tried to accomplish since integration.

2016 is not a good example because Trump ran against a woman. A woman has never became an American president. And the Dems won’t be throwing up a woman to run anytime soon.

That's only if you believe the numbers generated by Dominion voting machines in 2020. By my estimate, Trump got 125 million votes. Before the votes were "adjusted" of course.

The EC conversation is implied. This division in the GOP electorate is what will make it difficult for Trump to win the swing states and hence the EC. Swing states like MI, PA, GA, AZ, WI are exactly the ones where these different GOP constituencies have fallen apart. Take for example, Wisconsin. It has a majority in Republican registered voters, yet, the GOP lost the legislature and the Governorship. This is the same outcome the GOP would face if Trump is the nominee. As long as the GOP base is insisting on purity tests on specific policies, they will not be able to win a national election. It has been proven in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

You don't understand how electoral college works. This is why you've made this comment.

Well said. I have also tried to highlight the issues with these assumptions made. As above, complacency and contraction bias is an issue (even for Peter it seems). Do not underestimate the rapidly accelerating anti-democratic movement within MAGA Republican party. e.g. its obvious that MAGA Mike will refuse to certify the 2024 vote... what next? Just because something is right, doesnt mean its whats is going to play out.

I think that is implied from the business voter/ religious zealot split caused by the fall of Roe.

@@keystonekabes As an atheist, dems should've simply followed the science, When Europe is more restrictive than the U.S. was....

@@gups4963 what does that have to do with the split in the GOP?

Rural areas have always been more conservative. Christian Nationalism stems from rural evangelicals. Trump is their savior and the GOP is their sword. Traditional republicans (RINOLS) are now powerless.

that is not a thing.

In my union, a lot of what I thought are democrats say they are voting for trump. They can't stand "the new democrat party"

Literally not the arguement he is making fact he has pointed out business is abandoning republican party. Which to be fair is a simplification. Its more accurate to say Maga support from the business lobby has dropped. He also pointed out the clashes between coastal wlites and labor unions inside dem party. But we have not observed a large abandonment of the dems by unions. Likely because of a large chunk of republicans still despise them.

In a prior video he talked about the political realignment currently underway in the US. That is the very opposite of a fixed coalition.

@@theyux1 Peter seems oblivious to the possibility that the MAGA agenda can expand the GOP's base. For example, he didn't mention the fact that a significantly larger chunk of the Latino population voted Republican in 2020 than did so just six years prior, and that figure is likely to increase in November. Also, pg. 189 of a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll from last month showed Biden only had a five point lead among union households in Michigan (I can't post a link but it's not hard to find).

@@keystonekabes And yet he acts as if Trump is incapable of expanding the GOP.

TDS alive and well