the unfortunate bit is that Bitcoin was championed as an inflation hedge, buy that depends on people choosing to not sell it when under financial pressure or liquidation, but in the end crypto isnt treated as a store of wealth, it's treated as a speculative asset and becomes virtually identical to speculative tech stocks etc
I think bitcoin will be a good hedge against inflation, once it gets adopted.. Or if not bitcoin, some other decentralised asset that is easier to scale. The issue now is that bitcoin is, like u say, speculative.
@@LucaWolfeMurray it's been about 12 years since bitcoin entered the public consciousness. if it hasn't been able to demonstrate a real world use case or achieve widespread adoption in that time what make you think it will in the future?
.... it was also not supposed to be correlated to the stockmarket... it is... ... it was also not supposed to be taxable.... it is... .... it was also supposed to leave untraceable transactions ... it does...
I greatly appreciate your honesty, candor, and non-confrontation style. This is stuff I can share with my friends who may not be as informed without feeling attacked.
Yeah, it's too bad that your typical crypto bro views any critique of the crypto space as being equivalent to calling their mother a streetwalker. They take it WAY too personally.
Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement
pro cryptocurrency person here - no counterargument. even the most rigorous "designed economies"/utility tokens in crypto have glaring oversights. People love modeling things after flywheels and feedback loops that look good in a high demand market but fail horrifically in ways that screw over retail investors first when the environment around them slips outside what they are modelled for. Honestly I'm so frustrated sometimes, when people in the ecosystem argue that these economic models are neccesary for growth and marketing, where that seems to be a euphemism for unsustainable user acquisition - I wonder how many bright and well meaning people have been scared away from using this technology to empower their communities because of the prevalence of blatant MLM and affiliate marketing style business practices, and "degen" overleveraged economic models in the space.
I remember one of your earlier videos talking about Bitcoin when it was a rising star. You mentioned about comments you received some people made fun of you for not investing in Bitcoin and you will lose money if you don't. Your response to that was you never lose money from not investing in it. Very true
i really enjoy your calm down to earth videos , they are a breath of fresh air in the "investment" youtube landscape, no clickbait and very well presented, thanks for doing them
Every generation has it's investment hype! My grandfather was all about industrial, cigarettes and airplanes, my father used to talk all the time about computers, internet and mobile phone (at the time it was expensive and useless and everybody was making fun of Bill Gate) and now it's all about electrics cars, bitcoin and stuff... In 30 years who knows? I can't blame anyone for trying
The difference is bitcoin is an environmentally destructive negative-sum hyper-manipulated ponzi like scheme with a value that hinges entirely on speculation and any use case is completely replicable
Same thing, and I find it utterly irresponsible to tell others to take out loans for such spdculative investment. Stay safe people, and for any type of investment/gamble/lottery ticket, DYOR and Only invest what you can afford to lose.
I'm a fellow crypto adherent but this current culling of all of these scam coins (ESPECIALLY these algorithmic "stable coins") is absolutely necessary to get crypto back on track. I've felt it's value is overinflated for the current utility it provides because it still has significant weaknesses. To build confidence in it as a true alternative to paper currency, it needs a baseline level of trust and having so many scam artists in this space weakens that trust. If the only thing backing a coin is "confidence in it's value" or some vague "utility" that just boils down to the basic ability to transfer value from one person to another, we have USD for that, thanks, and that's what bitcoin could ALREADY do.
@@josephpeeler5434 And before gold, it was salt; hence where the term "worth their weight in salt" comes from. What gets traded in the world as the "unopposed commodity" comes down to what people value. Many might argue today oil is the new gold and has been for a few decades. But we know oil will falter at some point so at what point do you turn away from that? Maybe in reality now it's real-estate, with the high prices and fewer large property, single family homes that get built (or are affordable). Anything could become a commodity reality, just based on scarcity. Gold holds up because it's a physical asset that you can't manipulate it's quantity. And given it's rareness of procurement (and limited resource availability on the planet) it's considered a consistent, high valued commodity. Most precious minerals are and that's why they have survived the test of time in being recognized as such an asset class. Bitcoin aims to replicate this type of scarcity through digitization and decentralization. Whether it accomplishes it, time will tell. That said, I think it's fair to say that at some point in the future, Bitcoin becomes the next commodity that everyone values to hold. I'm just not sure if that's in the next 5-10 years like everyone wants to predict today. The reality is it could very well take much longer to accomplish that (maybe past 2050). At the end of the day, things are only valuable so long as people choose to hold and value them. If no one saw value in gold, as in holding it didn't make them feel or actually make them wealthier, they may choose to part with it. Then it becomes just another scarce commodity of the world, that people don't value enough to turn into an asset class. Guess time will tell what ends up being valued in the future.
@@whoopass2rb Bitcoin isn't a commodity. It is not an input to produce anything. It can't be eaten, used for energy or used to make anything. A commodity has to have utility as a good. A real market money must be a good first, or it can never arise as a money. The commodity price based on utility is its value (price) as a medium of exchange. Gold and silver became monies in all advanced societies in the history of the world. Even today every paper currency has a link to gold, however tenuous and distant, in its past. How else could prices have been arrived at? Bitcoin is bullshit. Blockchain has utility, but it is a technology, not currency. Anyone can copy blockchain technology. So there is no scarcity.
I agree. I remember asking people in the early days of crypto what their expected rate or return was and how they calculated their expected return. I never got a straight answer.
Bitcoin, or any used generally used crypto, gets its value from transactions. When i send crypto, be it for speculative purposes or just to buy a thing. I pay a small transaction fee, about 1-2$, that money then gets distributed to miners, who either hold on to it or cash out to pay for electricity. If we add it all up, about 1 BTC of fees are produced pr block (10 minutes), this brings the annual revenue of bitcoin alone up to 525.000 BTC, the value of that hugely dependant on what is speculative or utilitarian price is today. if we use 20.000$ as our starting point that puts the annual revenue of the bitcoin network to about 10billion annually, about 1/9th of Apples 92 Billion. That being said an individual crypto HODLer doesn't earn that revenue. The ones that do are the miners, those who keep the network secure.
I've asked countless crypto lemmings (sorry - "investors") what crypto is and how it works, and never got a consistent or coherent answer. Ergo - if you don't understand it, don't invest in it.
Well, I tend to think about them as buying stakes in a technology and the company(ies) behind that technology. It's high risk, speculative and can backfire badly. I never recommend anyone to invest more than 10% of their portfolio on it and only put what they are fully aware is "high risk allocated capital". Also, only do it if you already have an emergency fund AND already has other more solid investments (bonds and stocks) to make up the bulk of your portfolio. I chose Nexo as the custodian of my cryptoassets because they willingly submit to regulation, have publicly-accessible independent audits and only do fully collateralized loans. And even so, I risk them going bust if all my fake money goes to zero.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and an important list of facts surrounding the crypto universe. It is not easy to find grounded and impartial videos like this, inviting to rationalize what goes on in the crypto world, both when it was sky rocketting and when it has been sinking. That is one of the reasons why I am subscribed. This channel is part of a hanldful all the time useful sources of information regarding finances and the markets. Again, Thanks!
@@ShadowebEB not in that sense i believe. Im still good financially, its just that this perspective was new to me and i believe itll make me decide better on what to weigh on my portfolio in the future.
@@Apos19 Just sell your coins while you still can, once brokers go bust, then only thing they seem to do is to prevent their customers withdrawing money! So do that before it happens to you. Once the coins go below their production cost, then farms will shut down and the transaction costs will rise making it even less useful than it is today, there is that tipping point which can happen at any moment. It will go down as a lot of firms will go bust and will be forced to sell their coins creating even more chaos, hitting below $20k was one big "GET OUT" signal.
@@Apos19 Crypto is fine imo, but indeed it's important to stay connected to reality and think about its role in the broader markets and ignore the ghost ponzinomics to try to find real value/utility.
Can’t argue with a lot of the comments you made! One thing I like to remember is that while Bitcoin was born at the start of one of the longest bull runs in market history, it was also born out of unprecedented bailouts and extreme distrust in larger institutions/big banks following the devastation of the 07/08 recession. It’ll definitely be interesting to see how it responds while in a recession, mistrust could lead more people in its direction but it could also completely kill it, who knows.
Bitcoin was made in the best environment for it, massive distrust in banks(earned distrust) long bull run, and the internet brought the age of massive information and stock investment information. It’s really neat imo
As long as FED keep rising the interest rates Crypto, Stocks and "risky" assets will go down. Tbh I think (personal opinion) this bear market will last till next year if lucky. War and supply chain issues can make it even worse. Maybe this will be a good thing in the long run there's a lot of scams, shitcoins and fraudulent companies that need to be erased from the crypto ecosystem. Remember guys there's no easy money that will make easy millionaires unless u r a politician
Just realize that crypto is dead, and never had any use other than as a speculative asset. It is not the future. Hope you figure that out for your own good.
@@WinterReflections I never understood the popularity or even legality of crypto if all it's really ever used for are all kinds of scams or straight up crime... Really, making money from investing into something that just promotes crime and suffering is just disgusting.
Everything you said was totally right. I hold some BTC on the off chance it becomes widely adopted. Something to note as well is that a lot of fraudulant/incompetent crypto companies liquidated BTC recently
2:43 so sorry for the people that fell for this or similar (not an) advice. If you are stupid you still don't deserve to be mislead and ripped off like that 🙁
Well his advice was for people who really understand Bitcoin. A mortgage is different from leverage . If you refinanced your house at 2-3% for 30 years , a temporary crash in Bitcoin wouldn’t force you to liquidate. Problem is people tend to blindly follow what they hear on media instead of spending time to understand what they invest in .
I never understood crypto. It's supposed to be a currency but people are using it as a "investment" that'll will forever appreciate! I know there's foreign currency exchange but pretty sure they're not the same thing tho
It's nice to have some Bitcoin on a hardware wallet that can be sent anywhere in the world. Anyone that puts all of their money into a single asset class is a moron, but having no Bitcoin is as silly to me as being 100% in bonds.
I wrote a report for one of my finance classes that the market was going to pop and the fed was going to jack the rates in 2021, spoke to my student managed investment fund about it, and they did not hire me. Granted, they lost all the money and it is possible that our university will not have a SMIF anymore.
I'm just glad all of my crypto bug friends have shut up about crypto; it was getting to be insufferable to a buy and hold value investor like myself. I warned them it was a scam starting in mid 2021, but my pitch of sticking with index funds and/or holding blue chips in tax-advantaged accounts fell on deaf ears. And here we are.
"Yea, it sucked to watch my portfolio tank in real time. But I also knew that while stocks lose 36% on average in bear markets, they gain 114% in bull markets. So I ignored the news, kept buying more index funds, and waited." - Millionaire in 2028 talking about investing in 2022
@@Alejandracamacho357 Would it be better to consistently contribute larger amounts to 3-4 different index funds? Or contribute smaller amounts across many index funds?
@@marianparker7502 You might have heard this before but its imperative that I mention it. Starting out with a with a professional that knows the ropes of the choppy but profitable market is the best way to achieve getting a well structured portfolio. That’s why I have been working with ‘ Susan Agnes Hancock ’ and that doesn’t make me daft because in financial dealings one have to be prudent. Most traders enter exit with a quick 10% profit which is not bad in a general opinion but why not aim higher, it doesn’t necessarily mean to be greedy.
As a millennial I only got a small percentage in crypto. I don't actually believe in any of it, but I'm also down 60 percent on Netflix and my ETFs are also starting to head into the red. Apparently interest rate rises will also crash my homes value, so I'm left wandering where the fuck are we meant to put our money ? Everywhere safe and not safe is being destroyed. Should have just spent all that money that I invested and lived life. I don't blame the crazy crypto people, working 9-5 in jobs we hate and being told to invest into manipulated markets, manipulated housing markets, they took a gamble to try and get out of this God forsaken slave trap we live in. What difference does it make if the end result is the same ? Slaves in the western monetary system, spinning our wheels until we die.
I absolutely feel your pain and relate to you. And that's just one of many reasons it's difficult to be optimistic right now. But I hope you take care of yourself and find a way through.
Invest in physical assets that have intrinsic value, like guns. Guns will always have value, and they're relatively easy to store and sell too. Much easier than barrels of diesel fuel or literal tons of copper metal.
I rarely comment on youtube anymore, and almost never publicly, but I feel like in this spot, my statement would seem more legitimized as opposed to coming from a "random person on the internet"... first of all, I can't say that I've made the same decisions as you in life, but I'd like to believe that I'm able to somewhat understand where you're coming from. In high school, I was not sure what field to study in, and one of my top picks would have been economics... if it wasn't for the housing crash. Since then, I've had many ups and downs in life, have invested here and there, but found thqt there are some areas where your investments will basically never go to waste. 1. Skills and knowledge. I've lectured at several universities by now, and have always put effort into expanding my skillsets - skills in languages, software, psychology, acoustics, teaching, and many others will constantly prove to be useful and provide incremental value in ways you rarely would expect, and being diversified allows you to adapt to all sorts of situations. 2. "Gear". I wouldn't necessarily recommend guns, but the fact of of the matter is, that many possibilites in life open up, once you've gotten past a certain barrier of entry, plus when viewing them as assets, most things retain and generate some inherent value, and while not always rising in price, they at least won't vanish completely. You can figure out, which technologies have reached a certain "peak", and which will become obsolete through technological advancements. E.g. cameras loose value over time, while lenses retain most of it. 3. Health and quality of life. Have a good matress, go to the dentist regularly etc. It's usually negative events that come from long term negligence which put a financial burden on us. It should be a priority to not fall into too many subscribtion type models, but your health is after all, the most important thing in your life, affecting your mood, efficiency, relationships etc. Sorry if this comment comes across the wrong way, or seems useless for other reasons, I had to distill a lot information into this tiny format. At the end of the day, nobody can fully predict markets (covid, ukraine, just to name a few recent factors), and survivorship bias in the financial world is a massive problem. There are always more losers than winners, but since nobody will tell you how they lost thousands in Enron, Beanie Babies, Lemon Brothers, etc. but everyone will brag about that one time where they bought bitcion for 100$, most people have an extremely warped perception on how markets and money flows actually operate. Even if you're the best at it, it remains a gamble. You can keep playing the game, and hope to come out as one of the few winners, or you can try to find your own way in life. We still have it easier than most people that have ever lived on this planet, it's just that our greed and expectations have risen so much recently, that most people don't seem to be aware of that.
2:44 Michael Saylor is starting to sound like a madman! Investing in cryptocurrencies using your existing cash holding is one thing, but taking up substantial debt to invest in a high-risk assets is just irresponsible. Take MicroStrategy for example, the company will be in trouble if Bitcoin price stays low for the next few years (even if Bitcoin turns out to be a good long-term investment). If investors want exposure to cryptocurrencies, it would be better to just buy them directly.
People miss the fact that bitcoin is actually a transactional currency it’s not meant to be as a store of value even if people treated as such. It’s meant to be used for transferring funds but only to be held while the transfer is happening.
When i bought Bitcoin and some other Cryptocurrency in 2017, one advice that stuck was "Only invest as much as you are prepared to lose". Since then i did not become rich, but i was able to buy some stuff for my apartment and pay for education. There are some Projects i strongly believe are a good investment and thats why I still hold Crypto and i intend to do so for years. But if i lose, i will not go bankrupt. Crypto is the Wild West and i think the best thing someone can do is, to stay away from Crypto Hype Channels and any kind of Crypto Echochamber. FOMO is the last thing you need when investing in Crypto. Instead following Channels like The Plain Bagel will keep you in reality where Crypto is not the be-all and end-all. It helps a lot.
I've heard that you should actually sell and/or borrow against all your stuff and put it all into Bitcoin. So who's to really say what the right thing to do is? Notafinancialadvisornotfinancialadvice.
Definitely, if you truly follow "invest what you are willing to lose", not only for crypto, but for all risky investments, you will not only reduce your risk of bankruptcy, but also have a less stress. I don't really care about the ups and downs of the market.
One thing that keeps me out of the entire crypto market is everyone who says they have projects they believe in seems to hold the product primarily or even solely for the investment opportunity. My issue with that is even if there is an underlying utility for some products, something that mostly doesn't really seem to be the case at all whenever I've looked more deeply except for stable coins who's utility is primarily trading other crypto, the ratio of actual users vs investors is completely out of whack. Meaning the price is too high based on any underlying value, largely because of the easy monetary environment we've been in. I do think Bitcoin likely does have some limited utility for highly careful users, but that's way too small a market to justify even the $20k valuations we're seeing as of writing this comment. Until I see more attempts to push the actual use value of a crypto project rather than it's investment value (as well as some harder evidence that use is actually being used) putting money into this really just seems like betting on being the winner of a zero sum (or negative sum given fees) game. And that's not something I'm interested in even if with good timing money can be made.
Only invest what you're willing to lose is very standard advice. It applies to any investment, not just speculation. Rather than the wild west, you can assume crypto is every historical financial modelling. It's possible to abuse them, but get out quick
I'm salvadoran, and this is exactly why we were so opposed to have Bitcoin as legal tender in the country, seems like the president has the country's crypto wallet on his phone and at this point he's just gambling with the people's money. A country cannot tolerate this volatility, let alone a poor country like El Salvador. Love your party pooper videos
Nah fam, you must exit the Fed and the IMF. This is another market cycle, the US is going through a monetary reset. They can either default on the debt or continue to spend beyond their means. Just announced today the Federal Reserve is buying more of the US Governments Debt to add money into the system.
Not related to crypto, but would you consider talking about the Canadian real estate market in the future? Anyways, you are as informative and well-researched as always, keep up the good work!
I love your videos and listen to them with great attention, but I just want to mention that I have the feeling that the volume is a bit low when I compared with other videos, and on my laptop its a bit difficult to follow... Am I the only one?
The Crypto and related bubbles were always going to fail; they have literally nothing, no product, no utility; at some point someone was going to just refuse to spend the money on something that was literally worthless.
Few months late but had to reply. Crypto is still new and has its limitations. There are many scams but there are also companies and institutions that are scams aswell. But to say it has no product or utility is just silly. What utility do banks have? How can Microsoft charge for a product that doesn't physically exist e.g Microsoft Office? For example bitcoin has the utility of permissionless payment now assuming you're in a "democratic" country you probably don't appreciate the value of it. I'm not the biggest fan of bitcoin as its only one crypto and there are many out there that provide different use cases. I'm here to have another perspective on crypto as its easy to fall victim to confirmation bias but I think you (and many others) should do the same and research crypto
The only thing crypto ever had utility for is “untraceable” black market transactions, illegal wealth transfers, and money laundering, which is proven to no longer be true.
Thank you for articulating these points. I more or less had similar misgivings about it as an investment vehicle, since it's mostly treated like a speculative asset instead of as the currency its proponents sell it as, but this went into much more clear detail about other important aspects.
I completely agree with you that not enough people point out that Bitcoin has only lived inside of an easy money environment-- and that it is a huge risk to its 'number-go-up technology' narrative. But my counter to you would be... what makes you think the easy money environment is over? Obviously it is over in the near term, but the Fed is far from out of this pickle. Many people hold bitcoin as insurance on the existing system that may be in trouble.
If the video hasnt pointed it out already, the easy money period is pretty much stalling rn with high rstes and the supply of money actually going down as he said
I guess the point also being that this infinite rate of money supply is unsustainable for an economy. It is impossible to continuously increase demand and have supply keep up as well. You have seen the bad monetary and fiscal policies that have been implemented by Sri Lanka which has lead to their economic downfall. They ran an unsustainable model for years and the current US model is unsustainable as well. So when fundamental and the true economic reality hits the US economy, it would most probably and hopefully change the ideologies of the ones running the Fed, which would therefore, affect cryptos.
I have friends that "invested" in Crypto. When I tried to tell them that it is a very dangerous idea, it was just like talking to a wall. The emotions just stopped logical thinking.
I have friends putting like 80% of savings in crypto for the long term ahah. They don't get that in the long term every crypto will be at zero. In the short term some gains can be made
@@tacosyk even Bitcoin or Eth we don't really know what's going to happen. Maybe they keep this price for 5 years, everyone loses interest over them and they might go to zero. There is not enough track record to reliably invest in them. I find fascinating that people can "invest" 10k, 100k on crypto and still manage to sleep at night. I have 1% crypto in my portfolio (by now less probably ahah) and I'm sleeping fine taking into account that the entire crypto space can go to zero since it's useless
I have "invested" in crypto, but only speculative money. Meaning it's a super-low percentage of my net worth and if every coin I have crashes to near-zero, it really won't affect my financial future. It'll sting, sure, but it won't starve my family. There's an entire generation out now that believes stocks are too slow, real estate is too expensive, and that crypto is the only way they can ever retire. When faced with that kind of short-sighted pessimism, I suppose your experience is almost to be expected.
I rarely check . The bleeding is only temporary if you have the mindset of investing 5 years ahead and just keep DCA every time you get paid. My mindset advice to everyone if your positions are so beat down and beat down really bad next week make sure you go for a walk get some fresh air do some exercise/meditation drink plenty of water because all of these can lead to a better mind frame when going through with this and do not panic sell and repeat.
As a new investor it's always great to hear from a person who has gone through all the difficult times and come ahead of it. It's unnerving to see your portfolio go from green to red but as mentioned if you have invested in quality names just have to keep adding to them and stay the course.
@@mialangley2388 I don't pay attention to the day to day movements & Returns have been good , so far I've made over $305k in raw profits from so far in 2022 under the guidance of my Financial-Advisor "Katherine Duffy Burke". Am I selling? Absolutely not. I have purchased growth stocks too a little at a time over the past few weeks. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
You know, it's crazy. I've been waiting for this market since gaining my financial education in 2016. While financial assets are tumbling now, I think we still have much further to fall. But it's incredible to see the masses act exactly as described in the recession models we've all put together over the years. I'm a believer in bitcoin and etherium, specifically. I've spoken to so many people who said "Yeah man, I'm gonna buy that dip! Crypto 4 lyfe!" But as soon as shit hits the fan, people panic and sell. It's an eye-opening thing to watch. I made my bed though, and by god I'm gonna lie in it.
I guess you would know about the tulip bubble then? It's the same thing. Crypto will never gain its value back, just as tulips never did, because it was all illusionary.
Well said Seth, I'm the same way. I put 2% of my monthly income into crypto(that I believe in):bitcoin, tezos, algorand, digibyte, oasis, ethereum, nano, cardano. The rest I could care less about. It is amusing to me to watch ppl who swear by whatever market sector they're investing in quickly panic sell. Even though the name of the game is, "Buy Low, Sell High"🤣
Wow. It's like you didn't actually LISTEN. Because this ENTIRE video is just highlighting RISKS. Which might be a standing reason for the reason that at the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen 12,000 dollars in value. In a MONTH. Pointing out risk isn't bad, and you'd do well to actually listen to what's being said.
For me the issue was always the Fraud/safety angle. It is far too easy to get taken advantage of in the space, and you have no recourse when it happens. Doesn't matter how much crypto goes to the moon if the proceeds get drained before I can cash out. No point if you can't spend it.
As a huge crypto enthusiast, I can’t get enough of your channel. You’re never too cynical or overly optimistic about investments. You’re the voice of reason that I love to hear. Thank you for this video and I hope you (and everyone else) stay safe during this economic downturn!
@@aenorist2431 if you look up the definition of investment you will find that it absolutely allows to include gambling. "Investment" refers to the intention, framing sth as "gambling" is an assessment of risk. I don't see why putting $$ into a crypto currency shouldn't been considered as investment.
@@michaelkato8999 I run an Ethereum Validator Node which secures the network and generates 5-7% profit in ETH. So...maybe you just don't know about all things crypto?
3. Money misappropriated, used incorrectly, promises not met - those are not the results of lack of regulation or oversight. Traditional finance with all its regulations is not a safe space, free of broken promises or incorrect usage of investor money. Prudent regulation is certainly needed, but some guarantees are already there: no trust is needed to transact in btc, no reversal of transactions is possible, no one can censor your on-chain activity or devalue your btc by printing a bunch. Fraud risks are indeed there, but having entire classes of (increasingly relevant) issues eliminated entirely is a big edge in terms of safety.
I'm a big crypto enthusiast I follow crypto a lot more than I do the regular stock market But this definitely gave me a bit of a different perspective that I think I needed to see. Not to say it discouraged me from crypto. All in all good video
I just can’t get it out of my head that crypto currency currently doesn’t serve an actual purpose: it’s not actually used as currency, it doesn’t have any assets, it’s no longer untraceable, it’s no longer a new technology with infinite possibilities. Tulip bulbs have more purpose than crypto
I look for differing points of view about a lot of topics and appreciate your no-nonsense views to balance out the Pros/Cons ledger that I do when looking into things.
My advice based on my experience : - there is Bitcoin and there is other cryptos - increase your investment in Bitcoin the more your increase your knowledge on Bitcoin - don’t get greedy ! - don’t leverage . Leverage is different from a long term loan - be patient and set your time horizon at least at 4 years - and finally risk management : don’t put more than you can afford to lose !
I'm a crypto fan but the "get rich" types really ruin it. The tech itself is amazing and is working as intended, but what it's become is just an unfortunate side effect of greed. Looking forward to the future of Eth and similar projects without the unnecessary hype.
@@glassmuxxic It educates people on the importance of financial regulations, and why the laws which cryptobros hate so much came into existence in the first place.
@@glassmuxxic decentralized and trustless software/database with a financial incentive to maintain it. for me personally it’s a bit silly but there are several web services that I used but are no longer online as the company that ran them went under. Games, web apps, digital money, etc. that I wish were still supported. if they were built on decentralized tech like a blockchain they could in theory still be available. As far as coins go, I also don’t really love that my online money is locked up in PayPal or Square cash who make money just by holding it, could be hacked, or just go out of business and take it all down. I like Dai as a trustless version of these services.
@@ohjeohje3462 The fees for sending money, worldwide are already nominal, right now, with current systems. The cost of processing the transaction of money is simply externalized to someone else: normally suckers, who spent way too much on graphics cards for supporting the blockchains that record the transfers.
It's only been a few weeks since the QT was implemented and prices went sliding down. Imagine the damage if Tether will soon be exposed. For now BTC is barely holding on to 20k-21k level and I'm curious what straw will finally break the camel's back and send BTC to 4-digit price level.
I think these points are very valid and you show a good understanding of bitcoin. I've been saying for a long time that bitcoin was completely overvalued which is also why I started selling. It could probably go to 4-5k before it's more inline with it's real utility, that said we've also seen massive growth in the utility of bitcoin over the years. You said that you see the potential but it hasn't panned out, however as you said just a moment later to prove another point 10 years is not a long time especially when talking about adoption of a new world currency (end goal for bitcoin), which I have no doubt will eventually happen but it wont be before the technology is ready and other currencies start to fail, which we're only seeing the beginning of.
I have a friend in Venezuela who basically told me they take the money they made, buy grocery and whatnot, and convert the rest to BTC just due to the high inflation rate which is what I see as one of the uses for it. I don't believe BTC will go away and will continue growing personally, but the question here is how low could it go. I believe it'll again start to trend upwards when stocks do as well whenever the US hopefully eventually deals with inflation 1-3 years from now. Personally think 'DCA' right now is stupid just given the economic situation, as I just don't see how we won't go down even further from here.
One of the key arguments for people defending crypto prior to this year is it's seeming separation from the stock market, which has been proven blatantly not true; crypto is indeed tied to general stock and economic performance. Why bother at this point? There are far better, less volatile, growth avenues to put your money into, especially long term.
But that is just because BTC is tied to global markets meaning the USD. They would achive the same thing if they would exchange local currencies into EURO, YEN or DOLLAR.
Venezuela has the unfortunate issue of being an oil/gas country that is the world whipping boy essentially. If they try to fix anything, the US or Russia will interfere with their affairs.
4. Ofc gold has some utility: you can make earrings and what not, but people value it because they expect to find a buyer if needed. Indeed, it’s all in our heads, but it is real enough for nations to hodl it in reserves. Not being a productive asset, or even having no utility other than that of money, in itself is not an argument against the “realness”.
Thank you for the information! That piece of information about stimulus boosting bitcoin's value is important. Now that the stimulus is gone and crypto regulation is coming, let's see what's going to happen further with cryptocurrency.
we are here, two days after your comment. This is the future you have asked about. BTC is under 20k for the second time in 2 days. This is going down. And sadly, all the people whom taken debts for BTC are going down along.
WTF that dude telling people to mortgage their house and their family business to buy Bitcoin should be in jail. And anything offering 18% return is a Ponzi scheme.
First question everyone must ask themselves before investing is always "How much can I afford my investment to go down and for how long" then build investment strategy. The rule of thumb is, the riskier the investment the higher the return can be, unfortunately everything eventually crashes and when risky investment crashes it loses far more than 20% in 6 months.
This has been the biggest windfall of my life. I bought mstr puts about 5 months ago as a proxy to short btc. To say they are PRINTING CASH would be the understatement of the century. On Friday I was up about 500%. On Monday if btc is still down below 20k that will double as the capitulation phase of the selling of mstr will happen. The trade is big enough for me to buy 4 kilos of gold. Probably 8 by the time I sell. A real asset.
Let's remind y'all that stocks are down roughly 50% since 2022. Altough I'm not a big fan of crypto, I can understand the cycles and the truth is that bitcoin will likely not go anywhere in the years to come. in the 2020 crash I invested 2000$ into crypto and stocks, my index fund investment was up only around 20% in 2021, and the crypto investment.. well, 2400%. do the math yourselves. (again, i'm not a big fan of crypto, I think its extremely risky, but if you invest in crypto in the right time, you could make in a year what you would've made off of 10 years investing in stocks.)
Not sustainable way to make consistent long term gains especially with how volatile they are" - this statement makes no sense. They are volatile in the short term, so why is that "especially" hurting long term gains? Long term, so far, Bitcoin has been gaining value like nothing else.
"if you invest in crypto in the right time, you could make in a year what you would've made off of 10 years investing in stocks." Well, if you invest in the wrong time, you could also lose big time.
I also want to mention that many ERC-20 tokens are essentially securities. It’s essentially equity in a protocol, most of the time the fees accumulated by the protocol is distributed to “token holders” or… essentially stockholders. It also has a similar governance system.
I remember having this same conversation in 2014(?) when bitcoin went from $1k to $250. And then again in 2018 when BTC went from 20k to 3k. I'm expecting this same conversation again when bitcoin crashes from $500k to $50k. And rinse and repeat...
There's no crypto project that doesn't highlight how much you stand to gain by buying their token Their entire marketing scheme hinges on how well their token will perform and for Defi, it hinges on how much APR they can provide for you (Not a bad marketing scheme for Defi tho) However, what about the supposed "use case" that these projects are offering? Why aren't you simplifying that for us so we know if it's useful or not? Why are you only telling us about the 1000× opportunity?
…Except for the layer 0, 1, 2 blockchains these scam projects are built on. Those are the coins that’ll survive. Whether or not they ever see their peaks again is another question but foundations like Algorand and Avalanche were founded by some of the most distinguished computer scientists in the world and are not focused on a crazy return or anything. Price-agnostic projects led by component teams will be sticky but ultimately good tech doesn’t matter when there’s far more severe macro issues at play. Imo crypto/blockchain will likely find its first major use-case application in globalization but we’re 3 years away from that at minimum
it is. it seems to me that they do well when there's high fear around fiat but also cheap debt. right now there's a lot of uncertainty and doubt around fiat but debt isnt cheap so they are more coupled. people are meeting their needs with other assets types, i guess, maybe treasurydirect i bonds
I don't understand the all in mentality though. Why can't it be like 5% of someones portfolio. Its quite freeing to know if any part of portfolio drops its not life altering because you are diversified. Not just assets but by types of accounts as well. Maybe have a brokerage, Roth and traditional 401k.
because the majority are like 15 years old with at most 500 dollars to their name. So a 5% is nothing and they are so stupid to blow everything in these crypto coins
Diversification - yes! Investing so much as one penny into the most speculative, volatile, opaque "asset" (?) since tulip bulbs - you'd be safer placing that penny on #21 on roulette.
Hearing peoples crypto withdrawals frozen is kinda ironic. Wasn’t crypto supposed to be “not controlled by anyone”. So glad I sold out of all my crypto last November when it was at its peak.
Not your Keys not your crypto has always been the motto - if you are in the game you never leave your crypto on an exchange - many have blown up over the years. Anytime crypto falls these echanges all have technical difficulties and shut it off - hell coinbase has in their TOS that if they go under they get to keep all assets in their wallets - ie they lock out users but no one ever reads these things.
I agree with most of the points you mentioned and it's obvious that crypto is extremely-overhyped and very risky. On the point of utility, I don't think you are correct in saying that the utility is very easy to replicate. You mention all the coins popping up and now collapsing, and you are correct to say those coins don't have utility that justifies a high valuation. Which is why I think investing in these random coins and tokens is akin to gambling. However, certain blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are very difficult to replicate, since P2P decentralized networks require and rely on the amount of users and developers. It's unlikely that a new blockchain is made that will get rid of BTC or ETH, because there are giant communities behind these two blockchains. And then there are other coins that are built on Ethereum that are reputable and transparent, and it's not easy to replicate these in my opinion. Still, you are right that it is difficult to quantify this utility, just wanted to add my thoughts though.
@@bogdanb32 The whole idea behind cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is that they are maintained by hundreds of thousands of people with their own computers, instead of being maintained by a central power like a government. So, the larger the community, the more secure and useful these coins are. Also, you can only use bitcoin with someone who has a bitcoin wallet, so the more people who have a bitcoin wallet the more useful bitcoin becomes.
1. No, it’s utility is not easily replicated: not only bitcoin ledger is secured by enormous distributed network, with ~15year track record of ppl actively trying to break it and failing, but, perhaps even more importantly, it’s value is recognised by enough actors already, so you can reasonably expect to find a buyer even when it’s down ~80% (again). None of those qualities are easy to replicate.
Regardless of all the risks, do you not think that the crypto market serves the US dollar, and the existence of a new market for the consumption of the dollar is in the interest of the US Federal Reserve
You where talking about inflation, in how that as a factor affected cryptocurrency. Inflation has never been as high as now, do you have an opinion on which inflation will affect the stock market?
1. I think that comparing Stocks with pretty much anything is not really fair. It is just such a good investment asset over all. Saying Stocks are better, ignores the fact that you should have a diverse portfolio and mixing 5% Crypto into your portfolio with different assets is often a good choice imo. Taking calculated risks is good, but as said in the video, dumping your life savings into almost any Investment is not. 2. Also Bitcoin and the Alt-Coin-Market should be treated differently. Bitcoin could be seen as digital gold as all the value it has is that it is a household name. Everyone knows Bitcoin. My Mom and my Grandparents in Germany know what Bitcoin is. They dont know what Ethereum or Tether is. Having a high price tag with no real life value means that it is inflated.The Gold price is inflated too as most of the value does not come from it's technical use cases but rather from the believe that Gold is seen as prestigous. I acknowledge that Bitcoin is not digital gold. It is just a comparison that many things are inflated and have been overvalued for a very long time. 3. Great video, I liked the new thoughts you had. Gave me a new perspective on Crypto.
Bitcoin was the first and the most well known of a practically useless / limited in usefulness thing. That doesn’t mean it won’t lose all its value. The bitcoin network already burned a lot of money (literally) on electricity to provide like 10 transactions per second at the price of 10 usd / transaction, without providing much value.
I am a huge fan of Bitcoin and crypto, I use the networks, invest in mining setups, and work (paid in stables) for a DAO in crypto. Big advocate with a personal stake in cryptos success. I absolutely love this video and will share it with newer people in the space. The amount of crazy expectations and ponzis I've seen over the years, and the morphing of crypto networks entirely has been a fascinating but terrifying experience. Well done Bagel. Good luck with the fanboys.
Let me preface this. STOCKS ARE SPECULATIVE ASSETS. Yes owning a stock might give you some voting power in a company that generates revenue. But if say bad news about the company comes out and investors dump all their stock in that company. Guess what. The stock price will plummet. It will not matter if the company made 10 billion dollars in profit the last year. If say the company was found to have been doing unethical things to acquire those profits and people abandon the stock many people will lose a lot of wealth in that stock. So saying stocks are safer just because they're tied to a company is complete BS.
