The Dark Forest, Aliens, and a Hostile Galaxy 

I think I've heard him talk about this before Edit: I really need to wait for the 5min mark before writing comments because at 1:38 lol

The forest isn’t dark because as Isaac Arthur explained in the episode where he talks about game theory, there is no benefit to hiding, because only by expansion and cooperation can you have a chance against the predator (not unlike the overarching mass effect story)

looking at our own civilizations, sure yeah not an unreasonable assumption.

@@mimszanadunstedt441 bud we are a globalized race with overwhelming cooperation. Wars killed less than 5% of the human race in any century

better safe than sorry. we humans better start destroying things asap.

He's not that smart don't expect much

And I believe that in space, no-one can hear you scream ( unless they have ears like a Ferengi )

@@davidnobular9220 the monsters also mostly come at night. Mostly.

It's because no object is stoping the light

@@aurelienyonrac yes there is

This doesn’t address why they’re not visible. It takes only 10,000 years to go from two aliens to a full Dyson, and 1 million years to convert a whole galaxy

Reminds me of an episode of Babylon 5. Short out take scene in which the civil court on the station is hearing the case brought by a human who is suing a Gray Alien because the human's ancestor was butt probed by the Gray's ancestor.

"As you are probably aware, plans for the development of the outlying regions of the galaxy invoke the building of a hyperspace express route through your star system. And your planet is one of those scheduled for demolition. There's no point acting all surprised about it; the plans and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for fifty of your earth years. If you can't be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that's your own lookout."

​@@hatman4818Arthur Dent was really surprised that day that's for sure.

But are the litigants fighting because they both want custody, or because neither wants custody of us?

Sadly, this happens a lot. Heard that story applied to different problems several times in my circle of acquaintances. Only thing one can do, apparently, is try to get specialized expert's opinions on such things, which is easier said than done. Though, I don't really fault the doctors who "fail" to recognize this. What we call "Doctor" should really be multiple jobs, and there's *_a lot_* of different things that they would a have to be aware of to such an extent.... Well, it's difficult.

Thank you, for all of the above, and yes it is a bit maddening, but in the end whatever gets the roblem fixed works :)

I have to say, as a German speaker myself, I never needed to use subtitles, not even on the first episodes. Well before knowing Isaac is American I thought he's somewhere from Scotland, thus the slightly of pronunciation. But if never had issues understanding him.

@@SirSquallusI’m American and have never had issues understanding him either. Some people just like complaining for no reason 🤷🏻‍♀️

I just thought he sounded like he was from Louisiana.

On the last point: Not all species always would try to hide, but in this context, those who did not would fairly quickly likely be wiped out.

Well, maybe mr genocide is exponentially stronger then other species, and all the others are hiding from it first guess for something like that would be a military agi with a stellaser

Well going back to the analogy of the dark forest, in real life not everyone is just attacking everyone else, most are hiding from predators. So there would likely be a few very advanced "predator" civilizations who have perfected stealth strikes over millions of years, and most of the more primitive "prey" civilizations are just trying to hide from them rather than attack.

@@Aconspiracyofravens1 Sure but firstly, it's not about being the strongest, it's about *knowing* you are the strongest species, and it seems that will always be a difficult thing to ever know for sure. But, let's say there is such a species. So, why are things quiet? Send fleets of probes to every star system, have noisy beacons broadcasting "Is anybody out there?" etc etc. _They_ certainly don't need to hide.

@@MijinLaw yes, but some species might like to be hidden for many reasons, even irrational ones. A rational reason could be that they hope that species that believe they are truly alone will prepare less.

If there is a forest at all (if there are others out there), then survival is all there is, really. Entropy dictates that one's own is all that really matters again the nature of the cosmos, imo. But I hope you're right! IA is always so optimistic... I'm usually the polar opposite!

Lol Liu is probably right! Reality is a bit more grim than we really believe.

My condolences that you know about TBP, that stuff was so bad I had to drop it. Characters so wooden you could build IKEA shelves out of them.

The dark forest is a conclusion based on many assumptions such as technological leaps and the limited nature of resources. If for example, civilization in-universe is so spread out that the energy required for interstellar travel is always higher than the energy gained of colonization or immigration, then there is no reason for such conflict to occur.

Well at least the dimensional strikes , under know observations of the univers impossible expecially as the light coming to us from the early formation of galaxies over 13 billion years ago is infanct 3 dimensional and has no properties showing any type of dimensionsal anomalies.so you can sleep easy on that part😅

congrats

Wade...I want a "what if"

@@sneakyking Wade, the second he receives the Sword: now this is where the fun begins

Same

Yes, when I started listening, I didn't realize there was even a real speech issue. Just a cool way of talking. I have always enjoyed the style of language (a bit of careful pronunciation with off inflection I couldn't quite place). I struggle to understand mumbly people and Isaac has never been a mumbler. Clearly working hard to enunciate words. I have a processing flaw that does not exist with your speech as is. Cannot say so for others. Congrats on the expanded family and thank you for your generous heart... and great content. Don't go affecting your speech too much. It is just fine for us.

Can I join? Im a physics major (about sophomore year). Last time I joined a science FB group, I left because it was full of conspiracy nuts and people spamming those bottom of the barrel instagram "fact" posts (most of which so watered down as to be straight up wrong).

Nice

@@hatman4818 search for Pandora's Box of Salacious Science and tell them Nola sent you. It's only a small group of about 500 people. You are definitely welcome, just don't be more intelligent than me 😁

Yeah, there aren't many I like this much. Perun is as good as IA, but it's a different topic. HypoHystericalHistory is decent, too, if you really like learning how missiles happen.

I’ve been coming back to this channel for the last few years and it’s always fascinating to watch! I love the content and the topics! Best sci-fi channel indeed!

my favorite sci fi channel

This and the PBS channel are my favorites.....

It's more lucrative to treat a condition than to cure it. I'm not saying that's the case with his specific situation, but that's been true in my life.

Yeah its not uncommon, and I suppose its the same to feel a range of emotions in reaction to the diagnosis. I hope you get that luck too, and thanks!

I obviously am not familiar with the particulars, but I would caution not to assume malice where incompetence is sufficient explanation. Doctors are not perfect in their ability to identify, or even recognise conditions.

Exactly we could use that to retcon why the Vulcans were out looking for other civilizations to foster. There is safety in numbers.

@@dystopiaahoy I mean yeah, literally. Though they wouldn’t canonically have known about the borg, the existence of that and several other expansionist races in the galaxy justifies “fanatic xenophile” ethics, uplifting other civs technologically to improve their position against potential future onslaughts. The prime directive doesn’t make sense. They tried hard to justify it in that one voyager episode where a long lost probe had been discovered by a civ and reverse engineered into antimatter weapons, though. But the solution isn’t to avoid sharing tech, is to share your tech AND your culture/philosophy so that younger races learn how to use tech appropriately. The prime directive is basically prejudicial superstition borne of laziness. But I’ll grant that it lines up perfectly with the (not an insult but a description) fascist socialism of the federation, because the idea that sharing resources would pay dividends rather than simply cost you is a capitalistic idea. It’s very anti trade, and consequently anti generosity, which is just onesided trade

@@cosmictreason2242 I think the PD is just a reaction to colonialism. "When Europeans started doing the 'exploration' thing, that didn't work out so well for the people they found. So when we go out into space, we'd better leave the less-advanced civilizations alone, because we're nicer people now."

@@kevincrady2831 while I think that May be the “honest” mentality of the writers and in-universe characters, the truth irl is colonialism was an overwhelming positive. British colonialism ended the African slave trade, Indian widow burning, etc. yeah there are cases like that Dutch madman in South Africa but that’s an outlier and convenient boogieman. The dahomeys (“the woman king”) were cannibal reypist enslavers and their brutal defeat at the hands of the Europeans dramatically improved life for their victims, a repeat of the Spanish liberation of the Aztecs’ victim tribes. The story repeats everywhere. If more people knew history better, they’d realize this justification you cited doesn’t work, because that’s not how it went down. Japan and South Korea were occupied by the USA and they’re economic powerhouses and relatively extremely free, versus North Korea and China which are comparatively isolationist and authoritarian and that’s why they’ve suffered, the lack of European influence. Yeah some cultures are better than others. I’ll stop before I ramble

You're assuming that the prey will choose to act in the greater benefit of the species rather than the greater benefit of the individual. The individual will live longer by hiding even if the species will live longer by expanding. So what do you honestly think is more likely? That sapient beings would choose to expand knowing full well that it will mean their deaths or that they will hide for as long as they can and live full lives?

Im Trooning Out

@@Pause4pot trooning?

@@Pause4pot stop being a werido online like this lol

@@veemie8148 Said The Troon

We're more like a mould growing on the side of a car

Avatar is a terrible movie.

@@Chris-es3wf I wasn’t a fan of it either, but it’s quality as a story isn’t what’s in question here. The science fiction elements are fairly coherent, and were evaluated by experts in engineering and biology. Calling it bad as a way of disavowing a reference to a single scene concerning its showcase of accurate space travel is agonizingly childish.

@@humbleherald2163 The science behind the movie is also quite bad. Unless you're telling me genetically modified avatars is "coherent science". I would argue there's few, if any, redeeming qualities. It's essentially an overpriced tech demo for people with rather poor taste in cinema.

@@Chris-es3wf Avatar is not bad and I will die on that hill.

@@Chris-es3wf IKR could you imagine doing something magical like modifying genetics!!!!!11!!!1 lololol what fantasy bullshit hahahahahahaha oh wait we can currently edit genetics right now in real life. Shit.

He made a few episodes about that. But the short version is we either become machines or get replaced by machines. Unless of course we manage to keep the AI dumb so we do not end up under skynets thumb.

@@Turnil321 I kinda meant more along the lines of companions and love interest, somewhat like how in the story the man falls in love with something he made but we can say ‘it’s fake’ but also love isn’t exactly a real thing either. This did mess me up quite a lot- summary one person faked a cousin online, had me and her meet by her fake cousin. Basically had a crush and so on- I was 14. And then she tries to have her cousin date someone and then have her commit suicide twice to try and guilt the person into a relationship with her. Summary- it wasn’t a good time for me and my parents locked away every way to contact her or any friends because ‘it could effect your grades’ I spent 3 days without sleep just to hack into the internet using my PS3. ‘Oh and she died 3 hours ago’ I made a promise to keep her cousin happy (the actual person, not ‘cousin’ like before) a month before that so it wasn’t great. Summary: ‘that person is more valuable because I knew them longed and before you’ was all I was told. She guilt tripped me, brought up her cousin, suicide baited and basically used that as leverage. For 3 years this was the daily. Then the person she was no longer friends with and talked and the reveal of the suicide being fake… I couldn’t process this information until 6 months later when she brought up her cousin and I pointed out that Ollie revealed the truth and I was so mad I broke the promise and made her cry- I promised to keep her happy. After that I couldn’t find a way to make her happy or anything so I just was forced into studying philosophy and so on. ‘It’s not real so why do I feel like this’ and so on. I basically couldn’t cope and to put it in summary: my brain said “I can’t survive with this information” And i just split, DID. I didn’t have memories of anyone related to the event for 6 years- I wasn’t the one talking and walking. I wasn’t the one who was around for the most part and I didn’t know my friends. Then in 2021- ‘oh hey a character with a purple hat that reminds me of this one character and… who else? I can’t remember’ then the cliffhanger being the character committed suicide and there I was. I basically didn’t know anyone of my friends, I didn’t know the accounts I was using or the people I was talking to for a while and I realized how long it had been since I last saw any of my old friends- 6 years. Summary I had therapy which first was thought to be repressed memories. Exposure therapy… 2 weeks later and no memory of anything I’m back and I can’t read any of the notes of understand when the therapist was reading them. So a misdiagnosis basically split me by what happened. Also the girl deleted the last stuff and all the stuff her cousin made so… yeah. Now I basically am stacked close to another me closer than the others and they claim she wore a blue hat, I say purple but she changed to blue. They claim Ollie never revealed that and I claim she did- so… yeah. Recently a book I was reading had the persons name in a character and had her crying- summary I wasn’t there reading it and I came by hours later knowing what the story was without ever myself reading it. I really can’t complain too much though. Also read the quotes I used in the original comment with this context.

@@silent_stalker3687 the sad truth is that you’re gullible and lack a strong belief system. That’s why what you cited “messed you up.” Honestly you should start at investigating the difference between nominalism and realism

@@silent_stalker3687 first line in the second paragraph in your second comment. Your retorts are ridiculous. You’re “poor-me”-ing yourself and this victim mentality is stunting your growth. You’re not 14 now are you? And no, your statements about what you believe about human nature are not Christian. You are messed up NOW due to false beliefs. And I do expect you at this age to be able to use Google to find out what those words mean so you can get out of your self-imposed confusion. Refuse, and you show that you enjoy being a victim and don’t actually want to improve your life

Right, a super advanced civilization would probably look a lot like a primitive civilization living in harmony with nature. That is one of my favorite answers to the paradox; that we live alongside aliens that we don't recognize as aliens. Like mushrooms.

@@dhayes907 This idea could also merge with the Dark Forest hypothesis. These super advanced civs hide by having "simple" (not necessarily) and harmonious lives, and they would use high techs only if these techs can be "silent", or for the Dark Forest warfare. Just nuke any threat before they can be advanced enough to detect your civilization.

I suspect my general tone will remain the same, the voice has changed since season 1 but definietly the same person talking. :)

such a good trilogy

Do you feel the dread too ? I had to reach second half of book 3 to understand what Luo Ji felt when he learned about the Dark Forest. Pure unadulterated existential dread. Something very raw I had not felt for a long time.

In the Remembrance's of Earth Past, they went from 10 dimensional to the current tridimensionnal universe, and are moving towards 0d. So it's not working too well for them.

Well the thing is that if there's even a chance that we live in a dark forest universe, we would have no other option than to subscribe to dark forest behavior because the risk is too great. While Dark Forest relies on the simple assumption that most life will choose the paranoid option of self preservation, you're assuming that most life forms would be willing to take the risk because of a potential long term gain.

@@pinfu7179 Indeed. The inability to trust each other ultimately got everybody killed.

@@saucevc8353 That is true. And rather unfortunate as in the long run it'll doom everyone to extinction as sooner or later someone will spot those hiding or killing everyone else and have the ability to kill them back before they discover their own existence. Ad infinitum.

Unless each civilization passes up 1000 theoretically habitable planets for every one they colonize, and there's hundreds of other civilizations out there that would settle on those. Which could give every settled planet a basically random selection of neighbors from all the species that intermingle in a certain region of space. But again, that would be another (quite random) assumption you have to make.

Perhaps. But it is also true that familiarity breed contempt. Just look at the French and the British. And the hundred years war. They became friends after the fact. But they were fighting with swords and longbows. Who's to say that the Space French won't throw asteroids at us instead. Maybe the space french all ready had some beef with the dinosaurs. And they send out a "Dumb Probe" to send in another asteroid strike. As they detected signs of tech from long range. Instantly assuming "Blast it, those uppity lizards have discovered the radio. Don't try to hail them. Just throw another rock at them to wipe those bastards out once and for all"

It is a supreme dick move however to test and judge someone without that person knowing. Knowing there is a benefit to be had by passing a test tends to be a prime motivator for improved behavior.

Or... there is no one there. Occam's Razor. You might as well invoke yahweh.

That's we spend so much energy on hiding from insects and mollusks: they aren't smart enough to join us. Imagine what would happen if we let the Clams find out about us... 😳

Maybe we are too peaceful and not militarized enough to join. Just as likely. 🤷🏼‍♂️

No one. Correct. To know one is to know nothing.

I love that idea, but it'd be hard to write a realistic reason why this region of space is impassable or fatally dangerous without the reason also precluding life on earth. For example, theres a lot of natural hazards, like active blackholes, high presence of neutron stars, etc, but these things would also likely pump out enough radiation to kill life on earth if it were really that dangerous to space ships. Also, I think such a threat would eventually move away from Earth during the galactic orbit. Perhaps you could say that earth alone is off limits, as a planet from which no species ever touches down and leaves. Perhaps the reason could be that humans prevent liftoff by stealing for study, or outright destroying ships back in our caveman days. Perhaps we're left alone for the same reason Sentinel Island is left alone.

Maybe the reason is that our Bermuda Triangle contains no dark matter (or dark energy). After all, that's the one thing we have observed all over the universe (or only on universe-sized length and time scales), but fail to find at home. But to know WHY aliens would assume that those are a requirement for life and be unaware that life like ours can exist, we'd first need to find out what it actually is. That's why I'd favor the "we are missing something that outsiders assume is required to come here" variation of this over the "we have something that outsiders assume is dangerous, or undesirable, or exclusive with required things". To make this last example clear: this "material X" that is different here could just be an indicator for the thing that actually keeps the aliens out. For example, if the aliens only ever find dark matter/energy on planets, then the lack of dark energy/matter in our vicinity might make them believe that we must have no planets here. And this includes the assumption that all aliens think the same way. Maybe due to someone starting to call themselves "children of the dark energy" and trying to preach that to everyone until it starts becoming an unquestioned fact. The one factor speaking against some missing "material X" seeming *required for emergence* of life would be that all life observed by those outside aliens would have to have evolved using that "material X", with us (or maybe also other life near us) being the only life doing so without it. Which implies that life outside of our "material X"-less bubble would be even more common than us humans assume.

@@hatman4818 we do live in the remnants of a supernova and some believe it is what altered our the DNA to create intelligent life from the gamma rays. The time frames of when it went supernovae to when intelligent life came match up. Neil and makio talked about.

I don’t know. It’s going to be hard to beat Aliens vs Predators. Oh wait, wrong Aliens series.

@@davidroddini1512 I understand your confusion 😂

I suspect every will see the transition in the sponsor and outro sections since those aren't recorded till a week or two out, though I'm curious to hear the transition myself, assuming there is one, counting chickens before hatched and all :)

You cannot see anything that is made by a civilization given the distances involved, unless they are so far up the scale that knowing about them does not provide an advantage. My bet is on the ‘not in this epoch of the milky way’ meaning the time frames involved separate civs by an abyss of time.

Simpler explanations than "space monsters" definitely fit the evidence we have.

That's true. Liu Cixin wrote Dark Forest hypothesis as a hypothetical solution to the Fermi paradox if alien life DID turn out to be very common. As such, I'd consider it the second most likely solution to the Fermi paradox behind Great Filters/Rare Earth.

@@jhwheuer - the thing with "seeing"" is for Dark Forest to work, then, a civilization would need to be "seen" by a predator, or space monster, or, visible in some way to validate caution against a predator/monster, and as we can draw from our experience in nature here on Earth, once a predator has killed its prey, they tend to be very casual about eating it out in the open, and, where predator/prey relationships exist, scavenger and parasitic relationships also tend to exist. Further, for a predator prey relationship to even get triggered, the rest of the galaxy or universe would get the same signal that riggers the predator. If there's going to be an ecosystem shaped by BILLIONS of years of activity and evolution, then, I suspect such an ecosystem would be any and everything but a very simple predator/prey only relationship, and the activity surrounding such relationships would be so "visible" and "loud" that it would cancel "dark forest" the moment the first predator jumps on the first mouse to squeak. One a thing is done in the universe, it's kinda lisible ... forever, just like we can "see" all the way back to almost the beginning of the Big Bang.

@@jhwheuer The Fermi Paradox holds just within our galaxy. Whether or not there are dudes too far away to see, the question is why aren't there _any_ dudes that we _can_ see.

I want to see that story. Oblivious loud aliens at the center of a war.

That is awesome! Nice to from hear someone who did three at once too, how many total do you have?

@@isaacarthurSFIA five still at home. One already grown. Only one homegrown. I got injured in Iraq and couldn't have anymore of our own.

@@jaredfox2533 I'm sorry to hear that, thank you for your service, though it seems to have ultimately worked out well. Life sends us down some interesting an unexpected roads :)

Shhhhh! Don't let the Clams find out about us.

Amen

Then where are the massive death-fleets cruising the void? The stellar deaths that fit no model for star life spans? The dozens of signs that interstellar wars of extermination are happening out there?

Well put Sir!

Sure, though absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Current observations are also in line with no aliens, noisy aliens that don't care about us/our part of the universe, inter-stellar voids (particularly in our neighborhood) that are not worth the effort to cross, 'zoo's, distal noisy aliens, inevitability of technological self-destruction, really noisy inter-stellar space that requires focused comms, etc. If inter-stellar annihilation wars between countless civilizations were the norm, seems like we'd see a lot more things (planets, stars) blowing up before the expiration dates our physics usually predict. And it seems like broadband broadcast of enemy locations in a final retalitory (and reasonably effective) attack would be fairly noisy. Collab/expansion also seems like the winning strategy in a galaxy-wide (if not universal) mexican-standoff. You potentially double your observation capabilities and threaten your opponents with second potential origin point for retaliation.

You assume you have the power to do that. It's like maintaining a balance with Superman.

Or alien pranks.

​@@O1OO1O1 In the "Dark Forest" context, yes. But in general, assuming multiple interstellar civilizations exist and become aware of each other, it would be very reasonable to try to establish borders and form a treaty that everyone will mostly stay in their own space and not interfere militarily outside their own space. How effective such a treaty would be in practice is difficult to predict.

@@atk05003 Dark Forest as Liu Cixin envisioned it relies on the idea that technology has some kind of upper limit (or very very tough constraints that make advancing further increasingly difficult), and that offensive techs outmatch defensive techs. This means that there would be no war at all, no frontline. A newcomer could quickly find ways to destroy an older civ's world(s) (before being wiped out if he gets detected himself). And because of the incompressible time lag caused by light speed communication, you could not make any kind of durable diplomacy because the civilization you made a peace treaty two centuries ago could very well have changed its mind since then, and launched light-speed projectiles on your way. You would know of the treason the moment these projectiles hit your world, and the best you could do would be to destroy theirs in a classic Nuclear Warfare scenario. Hence the reason why it is better in the long term to just kill any civ before it knows you exist, and before it developed the tech to harm you (which can happen very fast in cosmic scales).

I probably should recommend Baxter more.

That is until our own future stellar colonies change so much they might as well be aliens.

I for one welcome our future 1.5G home planet muscle mommy overlords.

But I realize now you’ve probably already talked about it in other vids…

Yes though it might be a good episode topic on its own

@@isaacarthurSFIA Perhaps with an emphasis on how advanced a civilization would have to be to read said signals. Maybe with a parallel for reading atmospheric life signals.

If you do, pirate the books, don't buy them. Lu Cixin is an evil dude.

@@Lusa_Iceheart what makes you say that? haha

@@Lusa_Iceheart I only got 1/3 of the way through one book. Painfully crap imo.

@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 I feel that. I've read 1 and 2 so far, still got 3 ahead of me. The interesting parts usually come somewhere after the halfway point of the book. In both books so far I've felt that the first half could have pretty much been removed. Or at least shortened significantly.

Any competing civilization is a potential existential threat, but the better way to deal with this threat is to be cooperative rather than xenophobic. If you go around genociding you're eventually going to run into a civilization proud enough to crack all your planets, even if it kills them. On the other hand, if you go around saying "hey, we're the happy time hugs empire, prepare for orbital bombardment with stuffed animals and candy! ☺️" probably no one's going to want to kill you.

Yep. The forest isn’t dark because as Isaac Arthur explained in the episode where he talks about game theory, there is no benefit to hiding, because only by expansion and cooperation can you have a chance against the predator (not unlike the overarching mass effect story)

The game has presumably been ongoing for some time and we can see the current game state which is deathly silence. No aliens discovered, no galatic community, the ideal cooperative strategy to play the game has not manifested itself. A strategy of hiding/genocide may be less than ideal but if it is the only strategy that matches our observations and explains the lack of noisy aliens then we have to consider it is the actual strategy in play.

@@oLevLovesLove The point is that you can't hide. It's too late. If there is any spacefaring civilization out there, they saw us millennia before we even turned on our first telescope.

@@oLevLovesLove It doesn't match our observations, because we are here observing it. The Fermi Paradox applies just as well to the paranoid murder-hobo civilizations and the Berzerkers as it does to the benign Galactic Federations.

I might

@@isaacarthurSFIA I think you might like the red mars series

I second this

I used to repeat "Mouz" over and over after listening to some of his episodes. I'm going to miss it 🥺

@@anthonymorris9061 Me too. I also love it when he refers to animals as "cwittews." His "accent" is distinctive, and I like it. We should at least colonize Maws before we have to re-name it back to "Mars" again. 😄

My condolences to you, TBP is an actual literary garbage.

@@jirinaforever my condolences to you for feeling the need to announce to everyone that are emotionally immature enough to think that your opinions are literal facts.

hea done the dark forrest before..

@@jasonGamesMaster 🤓

It’s also illegitimate as a Fermi paradox solution