The DOWNFALL OF NIK AIRBALL 

Airball is not on a downsing. Hes actually 8 million over EV.

This is simple. He may have the money (for now) but he’s playing above his capability for the stakes. He likes to be a goof and call off / raise in bizarre spots, he should play 5/10 or 25/50 and be happy. The financial variance would be less. All of this is logical, of course - so he won’t do any of this. Expect him to disappear from the scene in the next 12-18 months when he goes broke

He deserves it. His narcissism is terrible. He's also a terrible poker player. Not just in overall strategy but he has such painfully obvious physiological tells it's painful to watch. But either way, he deserves it based off the narcissism alone. PS: Dan Cates put the hex on him big time with the chip push... it all started after that.

Love him (somehow) or hate him, you can't deny that he's great for high stakes because he's not afraid to punt off a house with ace high! You won't see many others make the same plays (maybe rampage or Dwan but that's it), he's the spark high stakes needs, because otherwise its 9 people shuffling chips for four hours while playing six hands that entire time.

He has a VERY high chance of making it 10 million down since he’s still playing.

Just like NASCAR we tell people at church it's all about the racing but really we like the wicked 20 car pileups. Seeing a rich kid go broke or lose everything gives many people glee and a sense of justice.

There's no such thing as an 8 million dollar down swing (if you are playing against a roughly even field). Strait up the guy just doesn't know how to play poker at the same level as some of the other people at that table. xD

Rob, love the videos, but i think the volume is on the quieter side and im at max volume. I don't know how to fix it, but i could do with a little more volume

Nik isn't a bad player he just isn't good. He and I are prolly comparable which means God help him at the levels he is playing. He is in over his head.

Thought you had to have a rise to downfall!

I hate it when I go on those pesky 8,000,000 downswings. I almost lose sleep.

The funny thing is he actually does think he's a good player and he probably would consider himself in the top 10 when you watch him talk about himself. Makes Jamie gold look respectable

He is very quiet when he isn't bluffing.

I don't care how good you are its very difficult to sustain positive bankroll at these levels unless you have enough from other sources to replenish your loosing sessions.

Great commentary Rob (Liked and Subscribed) BUT The problem i have is that i just don't understand WHY this downswing is the rage talk in poker today. I normally have $9MM laying around in my 3rd floor walk up apartment to blow on Poker.

Nik is such a narcissist he can't admit he's the worst person in the game.

Airball raises worst hand and folds the best hand

Can hairball make it to the magic eight figures? I'm quite certain he CAN. But will he?

Easy explanation for the downswing ...Nik can not play Poker period

Wouldnt expect anything less from a guy named Airball.

How does this dude have so few subscriptions?!

To be honest AA is perhaps somewhat marginal calling hand? Mariano is not repping top pair or overpair. He says he has two pair or better and not sure if it's non premium two pair either. So point is any Jx is better call hand as that at least block value. But yeah sure range is capped and we probably don't get away folding AA to this sizing at least.

Why if we Check Aces on he flop do we want to raise the turn to a 33% lead? Aren't we still worried about everything leading to the flop Check?

Good to see Rob back in the content game

I could do so much more on a table of players like this

Not sure how intentional that eyebrow scratching was by M but it's a pretty sick reverse tell.

Geez, Mariano rubbing the salt in the wound by showing the bluff, no wonder Airball is on mega tilt right now.

airball has probably no idea the % Mariano check-raises the river and has it/doesn t have it. I would bet he doesn t study his opponents and therefore he losses. I wonder how much longer are we gonna see him on HCL at these stakes till he goes bankrupt

If I play my aces fast I know my opponent is less inclined to bluff me as I'm showing a lot of strength. If I do the opposite by slowplaying it, then I expect more agression and bluffs... the reason why you check back with Aces in a flop like that is because you think your opponent doesn't have a strong hand so you want to give them a chance of value betting the turn with worse or bluff (also to protect your check back range), then to follow that line you will just call the turn with the intention of getting value on the river either by betting if your opponent checks or raising if he bets, as you think you have the best hand the whole time and the river didn't change anything and you want to make up for the value you didn't extract on the flop... so when you get re-raised in a safe card river you still think your hand is the best, you will lose for a very few hands and you know by taking a passive line on flop and turn you might have induced a lot of bluffs... pure bluffs or weaker hands turned into a bluff... so considering the pot odds and the fact you're on top of your range, folding is out of question! If you thought you had the best hand on the flop and turn enough to justify slowplaying it, you still think you're ahead on the river. And the fact you got reraised means 2 things: you thought you're trapping your opponent, but he was the one who was trapping you the whole time and has an unexpected (unlikely) strong hand such as a set or he is bluffing, as after you raised him, he knows he can't win by just calling. That means he is totally polarized: he is either bluffing or has a monster. The chances of this being a bluff increased immensely. So you can make the math, given he raised less than half pot, you got the right price for calling it. You can't fold after slowplaying your aces, cause that's precisely what you wanted: to induce looser calls, value betting weaker hands or provoke your opponent to bluff you... that's part of your plan: inducing a bluff and call it down... otherwise why did you take this line in the first place? Why not just c-bet flop and turn? Or even just call the river? Why check back flop, call turn and raise river if you're gonna fold for a re-raise? If you have a strong hand such as Aces that has showdown value the last thing you want is to fold!!! and you only slowplayed it because you thought you were so much ahead... so that makes no sense!! and even if you call and your opponent has the unlikely monster, you did your best... if he got it, he got it... there's nothing else you can do you played in the most optimal way, but you can't see monsters under the bed and play so weakly to allow players to make you fold strong hands that have a pretty good chance to be the best hand... folding the best hand is worse than calling and lose. But what makes this hand even worse is that the raise he faced was less than half pot... for that price (pot odds) it was actually a snap call... and I can see players from high stakes down to micro stakes doing it happily. A fish...

By definition, only winning players have downswings. Losing players have winning streaks.

Nik Airball should take a 2 month break from this game if he is going to dump hands like that AA. Nik checks the turn to trap Mario, and then Mario bets. Nik, you should obviously raise the bet and induce Mario to call because you are first to act on the river and should bet out on the river, and it does not matter what the river card is. Bloody, he'll man, you bet crazy when you have shit, and you don't bet when you have good playing cards. You need to get your money in good when you have the starting cards and dump the shit 90% of the time you have the crap, chur KIWI Bloke

I’m on a 50$ downswing and I’m probably more upset about that 50 than Airball is about 8m the way he punts 😂

Nikfatball needs to play MUCH lower stakes.

I honestly tuned out from hcl, when this guy, and his cackling Beavis sidekick, became staples. Just a viewer’s’ perspective.✌️

It would be interesting to see a compilation of the people who have won most of that 8 million.

He’s blowing all his inheritance 😮

Have seen players playing stakes way above their skill level and losing tons for decades. A lot of them were running scams or ponzi schemes and eventually go busto and their scheme is discovered. Not saying that is what is happening here, but it would not surprise me.

I think Berkey Broke Airballs Poker Spirit more than he would ever admit and now he is a mess.

Ego in poker, Ego broke.

❤❤❤

Please turn up the volume. I am on max volume and can barely hear this entire video.

Airball is just learning how to come to the correct decision using only three choices.

The commentary is results focused, and I find it hard to believe that it wouldn't be vastly different if Mariano had a set of 9s. If you are 80% sure that the guy isn't bluffing, and you only beat bluffs, you think you should call because you have a nice one pair hand? I think that is crazy and calling 2x pot river raises with one pair you will be homeless fast. Donkeys and fish think that it is an easy call. If there was a good read to be made, I would say it would be due to Mariano stroking his eyebrow repeatedly while he waited. This is self soothing behavior and indicates a lack of confidence, or possibly a headache, or possibly a reverse tell. I wouldn't bet 40k on it, but if I wasn't sure, I would go with that.

8M is prob nothin to this dude. Clearly a trust fund baby. Mariano will get humbled vs tougher comp making plays like this. Both are donks just in different ways.

MARIANO IS ANOTHER NOTORIOUS BLUFFER. SO BLUFFER VS BLUFFER NO PROBLEMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!

Something I've noticed with Airball over the past few times I've seen him.... He is breathing WAY heavier in spots than he was when we first saw him on the stream games. Not saying their is anything in that but it's way more noticeable recently. Maybe starting to realise these pots are starting to mean way way more?

You gotta figure a lot of these guys are really just there to launder money.

Are you a pro or something?? You seem very knowledgeable

"personally i just snap it off" do you really though? can't blame him for his river play with aa in my opinion.

Made it almost through the first hand and can’t do carnage. Ehhh

the name says it all..

what bluffs does mariano have ✌️

We continuously see these unnecessary river bets and it's like the player does not even consider what the next move is if he's pushed all-in or in this case a large raise. How do you play at these stakes and not think 1, repeat ONE, step ahead?? What is my move if he reraises me? I don't get it. It's like a total surprise, but there's only ONE action that continues the hand (Raise/reraise)... This is not chess. 🤦‍♂When Nic raises Mariano's river bet, in Nic's mind, he should have already have had a plan of action if Mariano reraises. If anyone is capable of reraising in weird spots, it's Mariano. When you think one step ahead and you commit to that decision, it makes everything so much easier and eliminates the break in play. BUT, this is entertainment, so it's very excusable. But when YOU put that unnecessary/value river bet out there, just be prepared for the hand to continue. Nobody like going through the blender. 🕵‍♀

I used to love watching Airball get felted but now every time I see it it's just kind of sad

Look how hard Airball is breathing

if i was mariano i would have said " shyt !, i knew i bet too much "!

Nik is loud, but people around him seem to like him overall, I don't know him personally at all but I hope he ends up turning this around just a little bit, It's getting hard to watch.

that is an interesting one! Maranio has no right, too be 3 betting the river with that hand, my guess is he was slightly worried that airball had caught the jack and he knew that airball was good enough too fold it! (but more likely he thinks he is good) would a Jack raise the river even only too get a little extra value! is there any chance that given the way the flop and turn played that he thought that airball had AA before he was told! I don't think so! Airball had disguised his hand! should airball have called? well it depends, Marino is playing it, like he is bluffing with the best hand! which is a donk move! but he isn't a donkey! I be inclinded too call - but only cause he disguised his hand and only too keep Maranio honest!

Sure the AA unblocks all bluffs but also all value. Then why would you believe it to matter how high in range his AA is. Whether he has KJ or AA it's simply a matter of beating all bluffs with value and losing to all marianos value.

EVEN IF YOU HAVE 100 MIL AND DOWN 8 MIL, YOU WONT TAKE IT LIGHTLY. IT IS PAINFUL. NORMALLY YOU PLAY THE INTEREST MONEY WHICH IS NOT EVEN 5 MIL IN USA. THESE ARE SOME BALSY DUDES I MUST SAY.

Why is it a downfall? Whats his networth? 8mil might be nothing to the guy.

If Airball just called the bet on the river, he would have lost only 10k instead of 32k.

A fool and his money are soon parted.

How much is he down on the stream? They keep track of all that.

Playing with a big stack is Niks worst enemy. He thinks he can intimidate other players with his money but unfortunately, hes playing against some good players. Also, he bluffs way too much and hes got obvious tells. The dude needs to switch it up a little. Basically needs to learn to play better poker. Hes practically giving away his money with his ridiculous plays.

Range analysis is a sci fi for nick.his knowledge of poker is for 1/2 table

8 million and he pawned his watch to buy in the 20/40 awhile back

Airball is a crap player, he'll never amount to anything. Add to his lack of skill the fact that he is objectionable , has a big mouth, constantly fidgets as if he is unstable and ...... yep I don't like him one little bit.

I hate that spot. You think it's too good to be true when you have Aces leading you to fold to make yourself think you're a good enough player to fold Aces. Been there done that.

His face expressions looks like life is over sometimes ,I wouldn't doubt he's almost broke

Will be 10 mil in the next few months

That's the easiest call I've ever seen.

His “downswing” is like the Dallas Cowgirls by mid-season… talks a big game, then CHOKES it away in the end bahahahahahahahahhaahahahahaahahahahaahahahaahahahahhahahaahaahaaahhahaahahahahaahhahahaa

😈 😈 😈

I don't think I've ever played in a game where Mariano's line is a bluff.

I want to see Airball’s tax returns. No way he legitimately has that kind of money, he’s not smart enough. It’s either straight debt or he scammed the PPP loan program.

Not a big Airball fan, but $8,000,000 sucks for anyone.

Great play by Mariano. I get why Nick folded and not terrible. Played it terrible hefore that point.

NIK exposed....

EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS!

Is Mariano really in his 40’s?? Can anyone confirm???

Nik WhaleBall 🐳

Downfall? He was never up.. 😆

Is furball a billionaire? To comfortably loose 8 mil in 2 months you gotta be worth at least half a billion minimum...anyone know?

Maybe he's got so much money it doesn't matter

Question.....if you can wager $8million.... mmmm ... why are you wagering 8mil? Asking for a friend

Salt the wound

That’s only like 12-20 buy ins in a year. Isn’t that normal poker variance considering he’s playing against some of the best players in the world?

Cha'alt!

If i was on the outside who didnt follow poker and checked this out id think Rob is being mean and just making fun of a losing player. This is no different of posting a sharkscope of someone on twitter who has a graph going straight down. In fact other sites and big poker companies are trashing on him too. Its all crazy lol but its fine imo cuz of the type of person Airball is and its justifide and also Rob wants this to reach Nik and somehow get a free 1milly hu match out of Nik and get free money like Berkey got

Nik plays w his own money...hes a champ. Downswing is ova!!! Upswing coming! $10M + tear comin!

How is that even possible? 8 million downswing… how is he not broke yet

He’s not a good player he bluffs a lot but he is super entertaining

Airball was routinely wearing a Cartier Santos watch, which is far more elegant than he is… Wonder why he’s not wearing it 🤔

Gn8 Nik Fishball

Can you find any hands he played well? 😂

Airball is a 1 trick pony and that one trick has been exposed because he plays on stream too much..

Am I the only one who watches Nik Airball to calm myself down for my bad runs lol

He didn't lose 8 million. He spent 8 million to have fun in a way where he enjoys it. How I see it. Winning is not the point if I had to guess.

this guy is just a bad player... that's all. They way he plays hands I am always wondering how he got that far. He might not even know what GTO means