The End of China’s Economic Miracle 

If we're talking only in the context of an industry that needs a lot of cheap labor, then it's true. But if the talk is focused on the technological aspect, then the Chinese economic miracle is only at the beginning stage.

Hahaha. There you go again? China has been collapsing for 3 decades.

This guy gets off the same train station as Gordon Chan.

Another Chinese expert! Speechless!

been hearing about this end for the last 20 years.

Lol another China "expert". Asia Society's content is really going downhill ever since Kevin Ruud left.

Thank you both.

Only Time will tell.

I have never seen the Asia Society invited anyone from China to talk about China, and that reduces its credibility

Mesmerizing.

only time will tell if he’s right

Wonder if he can speak Chinese

We need a successful business person doing business in China to be part of this conversation to have a better understanding of what’s going on with its economy

Great video

You misread China.

Congratulations 👌

Yes, China had already collapsed decades ago. No need to worry.

China's recent 3rd quarter GDP is 5.2%. Keep talking all the gloom and doom makes very little sense. If China economy is getting bad, the rest of the wor,d including the USA will for sure getting much much worse

Here we go again. We have been hearing this for decades and these jokers are proven wrong again and again.

How does one become a China expert without being able to read Chinese/ Mandarin?

Posen is brilliant as usual! ❤🎉😃

A 12 years old boy trying his best to analyze his grandfather. He even wrote several books about him. He is truly a good boy. Jiayou!

Brilliantly explained. Having spent my working life outside USA, I have studied lots of similar societies and nations. Incidentally, I was an economist and portfolio manager, and subscribe wholeheartedly to what is being propounded here.

This is October of 2023. What would you say now ? China economy is going to end when.

I would see no country could hold their economy growth rate at high level, 5%GDP growth at this time, that will still shock many countries.

can you talk about the topic?

The Chinese Miracle ended much earlier at around 2010. The growth of economy from 2010 2020 was a mirage powered by large debt expansion. What is happening now is because debt levels are so high that it drags the economy down. But let's see what happens in another 10 years.

That's very strange because what the speaker said is contradictory to what we see on the ground. Tier 3 and 4 cities had more tourist than they can handle. Slowing real estate sector is counted-balanced by the booming of automobiles, semiconductor, new energy, fashion and movie scene. FDI from western world is quickly replaced by West Asia sovereign fund. Record number of scholars is returning from United states. The speaker painted picture of china that doesn't reflect reality.

No miracle. Just hard work.

LOL All the China trolls in the comment section. Que the “It’s afraid” Starship Troopers meme😂

, Thank you for eyes openning

Swing left bias means “dreams about impossible goals”

Why you are not telling the audience about biological laboratory the United States have all over the world I think you’re over 400 some and they have 800 m bases all around the world to. I don’t see any of you speak publicly.

Oh dear!

Miracle or not, the world has created an aggressive nation with no gratitude.

Better to organise a forum : The End of the Economic Miracle in China or the U.S. ?

What a magnificent back-and-forth and analysis by you both! And, at the end, the questioners. Thank you so much.

One idea for China to get out of their “Evergrand builder” situation, in my opinion, is to do fire sales to the common people but not institutional investors. In order for the people to invest in their living with credit/ maybe some subsidized loans to general public.

THEY ARE UNSTOPPABLE GET READY

anyone buying huawei?? they have 7nm chip technology

All these hopeful haters wishing fall on China is laughable. Haters will always hate, China will always rise😂

Thanks for telling me our country is going to end😂

the guest offered an opinion 😐

I suggest this gentleman go read the Brundtland Commission report Our Common Future as a backgrounder for understanding the paradigm shift in the way China design it's development model.

If you want to know how well heeled and wealthy looking intellectuals look like, what they say and how they behave in their leisure, you are looking at it. Carl Jung would be envious. 😜😜😜

I see, thank you for telling me that it’s the end of the US economic miracle.

She just destryed the talk of this man!

In my college days there are students that come on a motorcycle, well dressed and all the rest. They fail the exams. China reminds of them.

A few bucked the trend and saw it coming!! From 2016 - Peter Zeihan speaking at an energy conference. You could date back much of his ideas several years earlier. Of perticualr imterst to China's fall checkout the Q&A @49mins. Linl below....

The end of the miracle? As i understand it, china is expected to grow by 5% this year ??. While uk is 0•1 % at best .

Vredi vredi poslušati. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 😊 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

Great interview. Bravo! Interesting!

Yeah, sounds familiar, heard that before? In the 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 2023 and everyday. Guess what? Chinese EV cars are all over the world.

It’s good to see a really great economist talk, unlike the 800 apparatchiks at Federal Reserve.

3:29 and that started me thinking 📱Ringing XD .... ... shooting people with Phone 🤣🤣🤣 T____T Then ambulance ring at 2 minutes later. Better Call James, the Who.

China have the best meritocratic and experienced leaders and government for the past 5 decades. China a massive country and have tens of key pillars in their economies. There will surely be revolving ups and downs in different sectors of the economy. China main growths is in their growth in foreign trades, infrastructure projects and it’s growing trades with 170+ countries now. For the past two decades China middle income population were growing fast and adding on the China’s GDP expansions. Every countries have wealthy peoples investing some of their money overseas is normal and that will not seriously affect China government finances. Lee Kuan Yew was always paranoid about the conditions how he governed Singapore even after he successfully took Singapore to became the world most successful and wealthy nation in the world. Deng Xiaopeng and all his following leader China Central Committee were paranoid too and worried that nothing were perfect and constantly changing of their policies without the worry and needs with winning votes in the next election but through a team of meritocratic and experienced central government committees to implement changes from time to time. President Xi Jinping can be eliminated from his position by the few hundred Central Committee if he doesn’t perform well for their peoples and their country.

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber to this channel

What about the US? We're living on debt too. And the fact that other countries, like China, are worse than us, which draws in foreign capital. But how long is what we do sustainable?

The topic should be the end of good trading relationship between China and the West

There is no END of China's Economic Miracle ! Since China-economic growth does not happen because of MIRACLE but HARD-WORK of all China citizens.

the inanity of the comments here given the erudtion of the discussion is quite striking

This is trade cycle every country is subject to, not just peculiar to China. US and Europee no exception. So what's the deal in this streaming?

Saving not spending IS A GOOD THING😂😂 it make the economy more resilient

Restricting China from getting technology that enables from building the most advanced weapons is doable and being done. This is being done in collaboration with many like minded countries. The US is building and nurturing relationships~ with Vietnam, Philippines, Mexico and dozens of others. The problems are China, Russia maybe Iran and certainly North Korea. Most of the world’s population is Asian. That would still be at least close to half without including China. I agree that even the headline MAGA is cringy but that is not the message from the current administration.

It is not only an end, it is rolling back.

Sydney to write on China info

Dream on

Patton Oswalt will play this man in a film one day. Mark my words.

It needs such experts to keep telling Americans they still have the best government and the strongest economy.

good discussion

China's 40 year turnaround story is being discussed by the West as a miracle. Would China flounder because of a property problem which in many ways is intentional to keep property prices down? China has seen the flaws of high property prices in Hong Kong and Singapore and would not let this to happen in China, leading to fake economic growth but real hardship to the average citizens. Economic growth led by inflating property prices and stock prices is an economy on steroid. Not real growth. America's 1% economic growth was hailed as rock solid by western analysts. And this is coupled with a 5% inflation which would make the American economy super rock solid. How about calling this an American miracle? And the same group of analysts dismissed China's 5% growth as a collapsing economy, even when inflation is nearly zero in China. What would the same analysts describe India's 6% growth? Collapsing faster than China or super solid like America's 1% growth?

Too many commentators are not reading the headline or the presentation properly. No one in their right mind thinks China is “finished”. It is not. What is “finished” is the veery high compound growth rates. The days of double digit growth are over. China will gradually revert to the mean of about 3% growth for recently modern countries. Whether they can manage that respectable level of growth is another matter. But in no event is China going to disappear or become irrelevant.

China does not need anyone outside to worry . 😂

Would the US used Chinese vaccine ?

Isn't it a great thing everybody here always wanted?

Now I understand what "bullshit" really means!

China is growing 4.9% in the third quarter and this guy said the coming collapse, I wonder where he is getting his degree

indeed, now they've reached development saturation, and now they're on to the next challenge, breaking western/us monopoly in the tech industry, a new miracle we're seeing happening now.

Chinese saying: this guy 不是蠢就是坏😂

Adam posen took it up side-down, based on his limit ability to access to policy and facts in chinese or association with chinese policy makers, by a series of shallow analyses of western views which are inaccurate in Asain , particularly China, context. That is probably the intention as his remarks are salable in the mainstrean medias in the US! Giving millions of deaths in the US, it is non-sense to avoid the facts and human's natural resistance to virus after pandemic, and making assumption of the superiority of mNRNA vax. Finally there is no china economic miracle as the west would like to criticize the chinese as they came from a very low base at the begining, isn't it.

No worry let Chinese worry about it. Look for another dilusion .Indian military veterans

you can also invite Gordon Chang to enforce your views.

⚠️🇺🇸⚠️ The end of the USA economic miracle started in 1970! Kept in a coma state with debt for last 23 yrs.

I have heard this claim for more than 20 years and it is a miracle indeed that these people still can gather the audience. Ok, time for me to leave now.

The idea that a country with an average weighted tariff of 2.5% is deliberately deglobalizing just bcuz trade as a share of GDP didn’t go up, seems like a really lazy & unprofessional take. American tariff rates are lower than almost anywhere else, & we absorb historically gigantic trade deficits with a contented a-plum that I think would be difficult to find any corresponding examples of. As for the economics matters not stopping China…..Adam supposes that our trade relationship with China is to our benefit. It is not. Every state in the American union would be better off if the bulk of our international supply chains were with countries we can actually sell to in return, that don’t get free access to our R&D w/o any investment contribution themselves.

FF 2 months and the decline is even more true

Great show.

I wonder how these people feel on the last days of their live, knowing they have lied half their life about a country?..

All I need is a miracle...

Jaka będzie polityka USA gdy ChRL uzna niepodległość Tajwanu ?

good work

He says everything that all Americans wish to be true about China !!!

China are transforming their economy from low cost high manufacture to high capital high tech economy, as always they are 20 years ahead of us.

I think the wage/employment problem may be due more to crummy and non work-germane schools, and destruction of the nuclear family.

His essay is so good that you can roll it up and smoke it 😂

There might be some truth here but the boy has cried wolf way too many times. This stuff is now a bad joke.

Mickey Mouse experts!

1914?

Why is this called Asia Society at all😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Nowadays layman like me uneducated, also can become an expert because I know how to talk nonsense.