Thanks! Yeah, sub saharan Africa generally is going to be crazy important over the next couple of decades. A massive population boom across the entire continent, plus rapid development, plus climate change, plus immigration from climate change - Good or bad, it's going to be significant
Basically it's going to be India, Myanmar, Nigeria or Indonesia on a large scale... On an African scale. There's no way this is going to work. Multi-ethnic countries have a hard time working together. The PRC might be multi-ethnic, but they're mostly all claiming to be Han Qin. So with the majority of the population almost being homogeneous are they really multi-ethnic?
It's not exactly that simple. India is a pretty good alibi, but Indonesia is really, really biased in favor of specifically Java, and Nigeria was three particularly conflicting ethnic groups brought together unwillingly. Nigeria was just created by the British, and has three giant ethnic groups that all compete - this would be a bunch of nations willingly joining together with no single ethnic group above 10%.
The india case worked because there was a common underlying civilisational identity. I’m not very aware of these countries - do they share a common history and culture?
To some degree, yes! While Europe and Japan are well known colonial powers, there was also another small, relatively unknown one. During the 1800s, the Omani Empire sailed down to East Africa and took over the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania, European Colonialism-style. They converted a ton of people to Islam and founded Zanzibar. This is actually how the Swahili language came to be - It's 85% native East African languages, with 15% of it made up of loan words from Omani Arabic. And on top of that, due to the ancient Bantu expansion, a huge portion of Sub Saharan Africa shares a very similar base culture. Plus, the nations around the Lake Victoria region share a couple of old civilizations. They're pretty murky, since before the Europeans and Arabs came there was nothing the people there could write with, but there's at least decent evidence for things like the Empire of Kitara, the kingdom of Buganda, the kingdoms of Rwanda and Burundi, which came from the same clan, Unyanyembe, which acted as a bridge between the Swahili coast and Rwanda, etc.
EAF is a pipedream, merging countries is already pretty hard, merging multiple dictatorships has historically never worked since dictators are afraid of anybody being able contest their power, merging multiple dictatorships with multiple democracies is just plain stupid. have you ever heard of anyone proposing a korean reunification plan that would involve north korea staying a dictatorship and south korea staying a democracy? no, because it's just plain stupid.
Estimates have decreased slightly, but East Africa has some of the highest fertility rates in the world, even higher than most of the rest of Africa. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the largest member, also has the third highest fertility rate in the world.
I was hoping Bric's was going to get together. Maybe later. This don't go with nothing I've seen. First I've heard about a federation. The dollar is almost done. The world don't want it. And we out of oil. Fill your tank. Good day. Not trying to be mean.
Lol, Brics barely works as a trading bloc, it would implode as a country. Imagine taking any five countries from completely different parts of the world and trying to create a nation out of them, it would be completely impossible. Not to mention five enormous ones, two of which are undemocratic. And while we should absolutely be switching off of oil, we still have quite a fair bit of it left, 57 years worth. And while it will eventually run out And the US still has quite a bit of steam left. With an inflow of immigrants, it has a stable population, and its only current competitor, China, is widely unpopular with much of the world and facing a demographic collapse due to disliking immigration and authoritarian policies. None of what you said makes any sense whatsoever.
The biggest reason for American power is that it's geopolitical interest align so well with so many other economically powerful countries. Of course they have disagreements, but it's not enough to break them apart. I doubt Pax-Americana will come to an end. Especially with the only real threat to American domination being in severe economic trouble. China. All empires eventually crumble, and the vast majority of the time it's from within. However, I don't foresee that time being soon.
Yeah, exactly. America isn't invincible, but there just isn't really a reason it would drop from #1 in terms of power right now. Maybe India in two or three decades if it can get some reforms through, but that's really it. The EU is powerful but not really growing much in relevancy, and China is digging its roots in but the cracks are starting to show.
