When using rolette simulator or cointoss simulator I noticed that I almost never get a series of 10/10 Heads or even numbers. So if I see 10 times H I will bet tails because the probability is on my side
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I understand. But suppose there's 1,000,000 coin tosses, and all land heads. Is there a factor or variable that determines the number of tosses for the pattern to change? Why is it incorrect to say that a coin can land on heads for infinity, if it's possible that heads can occur as many times as it does? Isn't the gambler's fallacy based on the _law of large numbers_, that says _eventually_ the pattern will change in their favour (that is if they bet on the opposite of what's been historically occurring)? What phenomenon is acting on the system that in a way that 'keeps it in check' to ensure that it is fair and maintains a 50/50 probability?
No, not for each individual toss. You can determine the probability before-hand as unique, but only in groups. For instance, if you look at a group of 10(50%) coins, the natural assumption is that you will get an average 1:1 ratio, ending up with 5H and 5T. However, we can mathematically reason that there is only a 0.09765625% chance that you will end up with 10H and 0T. In fact it is the same 0.09765625% chance that you will get 5H and 5T. This concept is fairly simple to understand. Suppose you have two coins. The chance that you will end up with 1H and 1T is just one possibility. The chance you will end up with 2H and 0T is another. All together there are four possibilities before you start flipping. This means that out of the four possibilities, each one has a 25% chance of happening. No matter what you get, you have landed on a 25%; does this make you lucky? No. How about when you get one of the 0.09765625% chances? Nope, you just landed on a unique set of coin flips out of ten; 1 combination out of 1024 to be exact. The law of large numbers works over time, i.e., after a certain number of tosses that increase progressively. It is completely different from looking at the probability as a group before the event has started, and different from the individual coin toss.
+Jade Minear this is probably the best explanation of the gamblers fallacy I've ever read. So basically, in 1 million flips, the chance of getting exactly 50/50 heads and tails is equal to the chance of getting 100% heads or tails?
i believe the law of large numbers states that the more sample points you take, ie ., coin tosses the closer you get to the established probablities in this case 50/50.... you will not get parity in the actual number of heads and tails but you will get closer and closed to 50/50
Aaron TV No not exactly. You just didn't understand him. Take any UNIQUE set and order of heads and tails and the probability of hitting it is the same as any other unique set and order of heads and tails. For example out of 10 flips I can say HHHHHHHHHH has the same probability to be hit as HHHHHTTTTT. I can't say HHHHHHHHHH has the same probability to hit as any set with equal heads and tail values out of 10. That is what you are asserting and you are right because 50% heads and 50% tails can also be represented as HTHTHTHTHT or HHTTHHTTHH and so on.
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Great hib Kevin! Really! Just keep going. About coins: what is the probability to get 6 H in the row inside the 100 trials? :)) I never saw 100 trials without 5 or 6 H in the row.
2:02 - Could be like a snowball effect and could be heads another 1,000 times, because it's 50/50 every time. It's not natural to assume everything balances out. It depends on the situation.
There is one exception. For an exaple the sequence is red red black red black black and you double it ten times from an exaple 1 dollar to 51,2. Or in dice with better odds 49,5%, low low high low high high. Then you simulate 2-4 first attempts and if they miss you start on 1 dollar. Then it works.
yes, its always 50 - 50.... I cannot understand why someone would think there is higher probability of heads or tails... and they call this Gambler's fallacy????
Ves yes good job. Now imply the same logic in Vegas while you are intoxicated using a slot machine where only god knows the probability of you winning. Becomes a little bit easier to let your brain to slip up emotionally
You should go live to assure yoursel you not scammed. Even live may be pre-recorded. The sequence of simulating two miss on red red black red black black must have a stopbet and you stop at 25600 A bankroll of 500 000 is good. Itsnot proved at 10 000 spin but you have a good shot. Though if you want to win you have to combine 3 loosing systems to get profit as Parrodontos paradox. Tried this out on dice but to be sure fo online at roulette
have to step in and question the premise: IF I saw someone flip a quarter and it comes up heads 6 times in a row my first inclination will be its a 2 headed coin, or the flipper has been practicing flipping a coin, like you can practice tossing a knife so it always lands on its point, or the flipper is a sleight of hand magician with a two headed quarter in one hand, and a normal quarter in the other.... because the odds of a coin coming up the same 6 times in a row is 1.56% if you bet $100 on the coin flip coming up heads, and doubled down each time, you would win $6400 - 64 times your original bet yes the odds of the next flip are still 50:50... unless the flipper is scamming you. There is an investment scam based on this: you mail out 1000 letters to random people telling 500 of them a stock will go up this week, and the other 500 it will go down based on the price of the stock next week you mail out 500, telling half it will go up next week, and half it will go down. next week you mail out 250 letters the next week you mail out 125 letters and next week you mail out 62 letters to people who will believe you have predicted the price of the stock correctly for the last 5 weeks in a row, and many of them will promptly hand you their life savings to invest....
Have you ever heard of the regressive equilibrium? What kind of mathematical education you have and the knowledge of statistical analysis why don't you tell us that so we know what kind of credibility you have Prof.Dr.Fazal
It still doesnt work. Yes after large amount of spins there will be 50% black 50% red numbers. However sometimes it takes thousands of spins to reach that equilibrium. 15 reds(or blacks) in a row are not too uncommon to see when gambling and that streak will destroy every gambler searching for the equilibrium by betting the opposite color
Interesting tip: In real life, if you see 6 heads in a row, you should absolutely bet money on heads next time. If you don't, you're falling for what I'm calling "the pure mathematics fallacy" Totally fair coins don't exist in real life, there's tons of variables, it's probably not exactly 50/50. 6 heads in a row tells you the coin's bias is more likely heads than tails
can we gamble in real life then? I'll even give you a 6 head head start. So one on flip of the coin you bet money on heads right? Let's gamble. As much as you want. Idiot.
