Anthropogenic alterations to the Earth system have disrupted the climate on an unprecedented scale. As climate intervention methods may cause further disruptions to the Earth system, it is critical to understand their potential environmental and ecological consequences. One of these methods is marine cloud brightening (MCB) in which sea spray aerosol particles are injected over the ocean to increase the albedo of marine stratocumulus clouds. Even with the promise of using MCB to cool the planet and reduce some impacts of anthropogenic global warming, there are major caveats as the ecosystem response to MCB is unknown. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of MCB on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics in the Eastern Pacific by using the ARISE-MCB model and future climate change SSP scenarios to assess potential impacts on economically significant fisheries in the region from 2035-2069. First, to analyze the response of changes in ENSO magnitude and evolution, we identify changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and biological variables in response to MCB and SPP2-4.5 (intermediate) scenarios. We then use the Bioeconomic Marine Trophic Size-Spectrum (BOATS) model, a process-based ocean ecosystem model with dynamic fishing that has been used in a number of future climate applications This is the first interdisciplinary study of the MCB effects on fishery responses to ENSO, combining state-of-the-art climate and fisheries modeling techniques. This work is motivated by the lack of research on MCB’s impact on climate, along with the well-documented impacts ENSO has on Eastern Pacific fisheries productivity.
9 апр 2024
