The Keynesian Beauty Contest 

Anyone from Alice in borderland? Been simping for chishiya ever since the 6 of diamonds game. Especially with how he single handedly defeated jack of diamonds and king of diamonds himself

came here after reading alice in the borderlands. i see this logic being used so much in anime and manga where two intellegent characters keep second guessing themselfs thinking if the other has predicted that they predicted the others moves.

King of diamonds' game was really interesting

This is for future Netflix show Alice in Borderlands season 2 or season 3 finale.

This channel needs 1000x the amount of subs it currently has

Played this game in a courtroom before :( it was very scary.

I agree with everyone here, that this a SUPER well made video. Great job, ID. However, something that doesn't seem to be discussed is what I would call "the statistical solution" from someone who could be described as the Bayesian thinker. This would be the person who takes the time to consider how many people are in each stage of thinking then uses Bayesian statistics to determine the most appropriate number. This approach takes into consideration that the average skill of the guessers will be static in almost any given game, so with a distribution of where you think each person will guess you can multiply the probability of each guess to the probability mass function of the distribution to get an expected value. It appears highly modal guesses occur at 0/1, 22, and 33. With this in mind, a mild heuristic could be deduced that third level to "∞-1 level" thinkers essentially don't exist, and that infinite level thinkers represent ~10%, second level thinkers represent ~8%, first level thinkers represent ~6% and the remaining 76% are zero level thinkers. There's also a downward trend from 2 to 85 with the bulk of zero level thinking guesses below 50, but I don't know that based on this data alone a good heuristic could be developed to capture that phenomenon. At the very least, by multiplying (0+1)/2 * 0.10 + 22 * 0.08 + 33 * 0.06 + 25 * .76 (The median between 0 and 50) = 15.2 It's not a perfect guess, but it's quite a bit better than any of the other highly modal guesses in the set and not particularly complex.

The way you laid out the beauty contest got me thinking about that scene from the Princess Bride.... and then you cut to that clip from the Princess Bride! I was floored. Well done.

I’ve been studying behavioral economic theory and Richard Thaler. Thank you so much for this video! It really helped me understand what I’ve been reading. I’d love to see more content on behavioral finance and decision- making!

Great explanation!

Wow! Thanks it was super clear and well explained. The animations and the graphics are next level also.

Amazing content, amazing visual. Good luck for the future!

great explanation!

I've been using Nagel's Beauty Contest for nearly a year as models of online social sharing, and I'm recommending that video to anybody who's asking me about the theory. Online social sharing is closer to the original version though (with multiple Nash Equilbria) and I wish your video had spent some time on that. Nevertheless, it's a great primer, and I hope I'll contribute to get it more views :D

Hahah. That Princess Bride scene was the first thing that popped in my mind

This video is so well made, oh my god

Only 370 views??? No wonder people don’t think enough.... they’re missing out on the best content!! Thank you!

Once again, awesome content man! I'm curious, are you using After effects for the entire video? These videos must take hours upon hours

who ever created the video done an great job .....i am here for understanding the concept for my academic it was super ........really thanks to the creater

I feel the recent events with the stock market (namely GameStop) only further reinforces the Keynesian beauty contest game theory for the stock market. Back in the days, the joke was "the stock market reflects rich people's feelings", but what GameStop has shown us is that retail investors can be a force to affect markets so the saying is moving towards "the stock market reflects people's feelings".

Brilliant Video!! Well done

I love RU-vid! Thank you! Great Video!

Brilliant explanation. Never get tired of seing again. Congratulations. I'll contact you via your website

Awesome video

Awesome explanation sir

Really well made 🙂

Chishiya

Okay so i am a bit late, but i kinda disagree with the presentation of the 2/3 out of 100 game. Since the number will always be multiplied with 2/3, you can never get a number above 67. Therefore the average rational guess will be the median of 0 and 67, thus being 33. So 22 is the first level guess.

I come here after the 0.8 game in Alice in Borderland.

5:32 well, I certainly did lose.

here before 2nd Season of Alice in Borderland that will be released on 22nd December, 2022. [Spoiler Tag] Chishiya won the game of searching the worth of life against K Diamonds Kuzuryuu that decided he won't decide (mind blowing booom)

Friends they know we know they know that we know …

N A S H E Q U I L I B R I U M

All this tells me is that if smart people assume other people are smart they get surprised that many people are stupid.

Hi, Nijiro 👩🏻‍🦳

This is some VOX quality vid lol

This is how Canadians decide to vote in federal elections in Canada 🍁