The North Korean Disaster 

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If NK were to collapse, the Chinese will try their best to occupy NK in the name of securing its border from refugees, securing the nuclear weapons and providing aid. But once Chinese get into NK, they would not leave anytime soon. So it would be important for SK to have a plan in place to be the prime stabilizing force. The Korean peninsula secretly might be more important to China than Taiwan - for many reasons. Just look at a map to get an idea why China is so interested in absorbing the Korean peninsula the way they took over Tibet.

IMO, North Korea’s best hope of transforming its economy in the event of the collapse of the Kim regime is to employ a limited release of a series of free economic zones, like what Deng XiaoPing did for China. This would allow one city at a time transition to capitalism while also allowing the central government to keep a hand on the wheel. This would also prevent the economy from tanking and give time for sustainable growth to take root.

The technological marvel of South Korea compared to North will truly make the reunification for a lot of North Koreans like time travel. It's interesting to hear about the proposed cost of reunification for South Korea, and I hope they figure out a feasible plan to avoid bringing both countries back several steps economically. Most of all, let us all hope we get to see the day this happens.

If Korea were to unify. It would make sense to maintain strict immigration limits to avoid a complete disaster in terms of excess immigration and the problem of dying towns and villages in the North. It would be preferable to raise the living standards of those in the North and provide jobs encouraging them not to move en masse. Integration should be a gradual process. Just being able to see South Korea on TV would be a big enough shock. Family and cultural ties are very important and should not be incentivized to be discarded.

The German reunification is an interesting model. It has been done, at great cost, and certainly not without problems, some that still remain now 30+ years later. The previous border is still clearly visible in statistical, economic and cultural maps. The issues are similar for Korea, only worse. The cross border differences are much larger, and have been for a longer time. And you have the added complication of nukes and China, where East Germany didn't have the same level of threats within or east of it at the time. So no surprise that the general view in South Korea (as far as I've read) is that reunification should happen, only not now. Preferably at an unspecified point in the future. It's too costly and difficult for it to be desirable right now, whenever "now" is. But that is of course moot if North Korea collapses, then the issue is forced.

The closest example of what a reunification would look like is east and west Germany, and considering east Germany is still behind in various equality metrics to the west, it's not going to be easy. Matter of fact I feel like it's going to be impossible to ever unify them. Their cultures have shifted so dramatically, and north korea is significantly behind south korea (theres a far greater gap than there ever was for germany).

1:04 At the time of that speech, there weren’t cracks showing in the Berlin Wall. The East German government still remained on its track and also was the only communist country which didn’t implement political reforms. That Reagan speech is a bit overused among English speaking RU-vidrs. (Overused because of the fact that he didn’t seem to understand that the leader of East Germany planned and built the Berlin Wall and also knocked it down in 1989)

Set up a transition government in the North. One that is planned to re-integrate with South Korea after stabilizing the region. North Koreans will slowly get used to democracy, South Korea can decide the speed of integration depending on how successful or unsuccessful programs pan out to be. OBF would probably agree with me and say the lack of infrastructure has to be part of initial efforts alongside humanitarian aid.

Insane that they spend a billion dollars annually on a department that is essentially just an idea at this point

I think with the population growing smaller and smaller in South Korea will make the reunification of North Korea more and more necessary for the South to stabilize the population and stay at the top of worlds economies

Re-uniting Germany was already bad and has left huge scars that are felt to this day. And Germany was only split for 30 years. A Unified korea will have massive problems if they don´t plan everything to the detail. But it´s good to see that they do so.

One thing to point out here. A unified Korea is something China and Russia doesn't want to happened. Be it from the South or the North. If it from the North, Japan also doesn't want it to happen.

Focusing on the economic cost of the reunification is a red herring. The cost of not reunifying is far greater, not just economic but the spiritual psychological cost of dividing up a family into an eternal state of hostility wasting tremendous amount of human and material resources getting ready for a war that never ended. Being divided also make both NK and SK puppets to greater powers which they need to get out of. NK men serving 10 years in the army and NK women serving 6 years is a tremendous economic waste that never gets calculated into the cost equation. Think about how many young SK men have to put their prime years of skill/talent development on hold to go to the military. Korea's greatest resource is it's human talent. Th state of being divided cause a lot of human resources to be squandered.

At least they get to see the stars at night.

0:00 if only north koreans know and understand this image

Despite the massive upfront costs, once reunification was complete and North Korea is being modernized, the massive jump in available workers, resources, and available land would be a huge economic boon for the now unified country. Over the coming decades, it would likely pay for itself. That's assuming a major war doesn't break out because of it.

It’s not like South Korea would be funding this alone.

South Korea is one of the most beautiful countries that I’ve been to. The whole time that I was there, I thought how oppressive it has to be for the North.

Thanks for the News OBF!

beautiful editing

04:18 is the Filipino Army 2nd infantry division

While I appreciate your POV, economically speaking I think this piece completely missed the mark for a few key reasons. 1) the cost of military would dramatically lessen in the event of a NK collapse. The low skilled labour of refugees uplifts gdp drastically more than higher wages based on productivity. For construction, language teachers, social workers, police, fire departments, all those great middle class jobs will see a surge of demand boosting s Korean incomes as an effect of the debt incurred absorbing the NK refugees. That's good debt to have: construction, infrastructure, education, and basic needs consumption are huge boons to established economies because the system is already built and refined to train and expand these positions. It's nothing like starting a new country from scratch where everyone stands still waiting for a constitution and utilities. It would be a shock to the south Korean system for sure, and there would be debt, but for anyone who knows anything about chasing value that's the best debt to own - sovreign with guaranteed growth if consumer base and labourers who would feel rich working like livestock for minimum wage because freedom would be a new statutory benefit they would've sold a child for prior to reunification. I would love to invest in South Korean bonds in the event of a unified Korea, that'd be the easiest 12% 20-yr yield I'd ever find in my lifetime.

The absolute proof that the world's governing bodies care literally nothing about basic human rights.

Risk of Conflict is very high in the Region, two conflicting Superpowers.........

Plot twist. North Korea never managed to make nukes. They just acquired every nuke that's ever been lost by another nation.

On the issue of migration: Something that might mitigate that issue (and thus make reunification genuinely sustainable) is South Korea's population flocking to Seoul? I've seen that be brought up a few times and hyper urbanization, so reunification could potentially save rural South Korea.

I pray for the future of North Korea, that the reunification would happen, and that all will be freed from the Kim regime.

At least they don't have light pollution, all the world now craves for this type of sky

Good video man thank you

Love the videos, man. Keep it up!!!

Great video but the title made me thought it would involve current plans of foreign governments trying to topple NK. A better title would be The Plan For After North Korea’s Collapse.

Aside from geopolitical deliberations - I feel like if it were to come to a reunification scenario with North Korea, there wouldn’t just be dangers and problems, but also opportunities and the chance to learn from the mistakes Germany did during their reunification. Yes, the difference between the two Germanys wasn’t as vast as it is between the two Koreas now. Still, there will be similarities. Our reunification wasn’t uncontroversial either. But we still did it peacefully. There were and continue to be some problems though. Many people from Eastern Germany became unemployed because most of their factories where either closed, sold or even disassembled (even though that wasn’t necessary). This continues to perpetuate economic differences between west and east, and still leads to many young people from East Germany to move to the West to find better paid work. Also, most of the land, buildings etc. where bought up by West Germans. East Germans own very little, and still have lower pensions and wages compared to the rest of us. Inequality such as this leads to them being more critical of the government, turning to the right wing and being one of the oldest places in the world. There where huge infrastructural challenges as well, many streets where in desperate need of repair, lots of coal ovens, which the west didn’t use and even lots of rivers needed to be cleaned up. Not to mention the internal mood of distrust, as many East Germans were surveilled by neighbours, close friends, partners etc. (we still talk of Stasi-methods to describe surveillance and oppression). But: our infrastructural challenges were addressed with a solidarity tax that richer people had to pay (it worked really well) and West Germany profited from an influx of young workers. We would have aged much faster, if we didn’t reunify. South Korea is famously one of the oldest countries in the world and could profit the same way (with less exploitation). Increasing the work force is beneficial to the economy.

Very well done, Thank you.

The alternative is that they follow the Chinese model whereby they maintain control but allow free enterprise.

We need more intros like this at 0:55

It's funny how people think this will be a burden for the SK economy, when it would add millions of new workers and thousands of square km of new land to south korea.

South Korea doesn't have to house or integrate any of them. It can defend its border just as much as now.

I would argue that unification would not be burden but a boon as the cheap labour and resources that is needed will be available and more markets will open up and more land and population collapase can be mitigated. Other thing is that south korea would like to keep nucleur weapons and that could be a problem. China could fund a militia to fight americans. Hearing all the problems it is a wonder that ussr went out so quietly with nuclear weapons. And why is citations list is said to be coming soon.

For these pepole the expierience must be overwhelming, it's like time travel into the future 50 years or more...

Travelling through South Korea, living with local people, I was shocked by the unexpected and widely spread poverty. South Koreans are certainly not as poor and dominated as North Koreans are. Nevertheless, for the vast majority, their lifestyle is appalling. The miracle in Seoul is just for a few Gangnam yuppies, you should not look at GDP if you want to understand the country. Stuck between slums, mega-suburbs, and terrible American casino chic, people are taking the West as a reference point when they are assessing themselves. They live culturally uprooted, and of course they can't be on par. You easily understand why they don't have kids anymore. This country is still bleeding from the Korean War wounds, it is simply a terrible place to live in.

The background music in the last part is far too loud. I can barely keep listening.

North Korea is that one friend who spends all his money with weapons, leaving nothing for hp potions and other stuff.

Thank you.

Personally I think there needs to be an official partition of Korea. If they end the competing claims of sovereignty then it would end any risk of invasion from either side. Just let them develop separately and not cause political and economic instability.

Background music or rhythmic noise should be in the BACKGROUND: much softer than the narration. Around 11:00, it seems you forgot that.

Russia is also another factor left out. They have huge oil claims over Asian territories of Siberia and Sakhalin. Western Russia has always been West of the Volga River never East. It wasn’t until the power and decline of the Mongolian Empire did these Slavic invaders decide to seize lands in vastly underpopulated regions within Siberia. But the Russians found that populating these regions with White Europeans wasn’t as easy as populations in Nordic areas. They obviously came after the Ket, Mongolians, Koreans, and some Ainu tribes of Japan’s Hokkaido. Chinese like Western Europeans of the Mediterranean do not enjoy freezing winter temperatures with gray cloudy skies year round like the Inuits, Déni, Mansi, Sakhalin, Finland’s Sami, Laplander, or Norwegian Asiatic Mongolians. They cannot deal with cold wet weather, they prefer mild temperatures like Southern Koreans, Turkish Tartars, Persians, Indians, Caucus regions people, or mainland Japanese, or Okinawans. They hate cold weather unless they have Mongolian or Ket (Alaskan Eskimo) genetics. The Chinese never divulge secrets either. Most of Manchuria is inhabited by nonHan Chinese. They are mostly Manchurian with Chinese, Russian Jewish, Russian Tartar, Turkish, other Central Asians, and Korean mixed blood. The Asians know and understand but most white Europeans besides Russians, could careless because of the genetic features much as in the Middle East or Africa. To light skinned, light eyed people, dark haired brown eyed people all look dark and from warm regions but they are not. They like other ethnicities are different and have many differing cultures. Somehow the idea that it’s because of China the two Koreas are divided forget, Kim IL Sung of North Korea received guarantees of weapons and ammunition from Stalin to proceed with the invasion, not Mao’s China. It was Chou En Lai of Communist China that raised the red flag over the UN’s interdiction within the Korean Peninsula. The Ccp were upset that North Korea went ahead with the invasion without properly asking Communist China first. Decidedly, the US under General MacArthur was willing to instigate a nuclear confrontation within the Asian continent without clearly realizing this would also involve the Soviet Union. The Russians realize that by having a two front war would cripple its hold on Siberian territory they seized from Ching Dynasty China back in the days of Peter the Great, and then the 1800’s Romanovs Dynasty China had the numbers of military soldiers not the skills. The Russians fear that if North Korea or China were to fall, the West would encroach on Siberian territories and handicap Russia’s standing in Europe. The last time that occurred with the Russo Japanese War, the balance shifted and caused Germany to become involved in WWI. Your video covers but a small part of the dimension of reunification problems. Discounting Russia, Japan, the Iranians, and Central Asia is why instability causes larger conflicts. Big players have relationships with small players and North Korea’s leadership is immune to Western sanctions but the West also never realized its own faults adding to the problem. China’s proper role is as the pimp allowing drug, weapons, and human trafficking to happen freely on the Korean Peninsula without remorse or worries about any sanctions placed on them because in the Ccp’s view, it’s America’s problem and will always be because South Korea is view as a satellite province propped up by Native American genocide killers, and African Slave traders, hell bent on inflicting another century of humiliation on China after the Opium wars of the 19th century.

The video sounds like it's some of the very first videos ever published by you...

China's reaction to a collapsible of NK is the big question. China would definitely want security and a non threatening unified Korea.

Fun fact, if you’re worried about South Korea, receiving 3 million refugees, America has received 6.7 million refugees over the past three years ….

i thenk the mental aspect would change if the north collapsed as low paying people wont be competeing against defectors as there would be a nationwide movement going on to quickly unify the entire country and start bringing the north upto speed and making quick haste to absord its industry,resources and military. The job market floodgates would open as massive modernization projects would be everywhere, including building new housing etc there wont be a lack of work for many decades plus the inpour of money from un aid would help. Almost overnight whatever animosity others held for defectors would be gone because everyone will see that this regime no longer exist we are no longer a divided nation we are one and you are our citizens once again.

Why not setup two economic zones? One in the North and another in the South. People can freely travel between each zone, but cannot work in the other. North Korean's could only access the South's job market if they have a certain set of skills or a certain level of income (entrepreneurs). The North would be propped up with a series of state sponsored schools that would help educate the North. Everyone in the North would have a certain level of income support to avoid mass starvation. This would be a temporary measure until the North reaches a certain threshold where the majority of the population are able to support themselves. In-between all this the South would be able to access a relatively cheaper work force and the North's natural resources.

At the start above nk is also dark

How are you going to do a reunification episode on North and South Korea and not talk about the reunification of Germany in 1990?? I know the difference are not as stark, but not mentioning this important time in global history and German history is doing this subject a serious disservice.

getting close c’mon!

always glad to find out there's a plan 😎

It is important to note that no state, no matter how successful, has ever existed forever. This is especially true for authoritarian states and dynasties. I equate the collapse of a state to the collapse of submarine's pressure hull: Perhaps some creaking, but ultimately a lot of nothing. And then, all at once.

Can anyone provide info on who created intro music?

robert o’neill is ready for his next deployment

China being China would probably ask for a written agreement from Korea and US on not intervening during a future Taiwan unification should they sign off on the Korean one.

Me plying Warthunder while watching this xD The Snail will get you too!

no nukes? you get invaded

I’m surprised you didn’t mention German unification as an example

Just me, myself, and thousands of international relations experts 😌

Why are we assuming they all would just mirgate after it's over? If it's over and people that actually some what care are in power now. They no longer would need to fear living in North Korea because North Korea's rules would be changed to the new rules of China or South Korea's rules. Also, South Korean or Chinese businesses and the other commodities that would want to move their because it now a friendly and untapped market that benefits the natives as well. So, I don't understand why they would need to migrate, when they are already living off food and other stuff now. They would just get more access to food and resources from their new country and from the international markets as well.

This famous satellite image is not untrue, but still a bit edited.

I pray that the North Korean people will be free from the Kim Regime. I pray that they one day know freedom.

The night map of North Korea showed that they probably had a small carbon footprint compared to the South.

China will try it's best not totally loose N.Korea to SK & US. Sharing land border with an western ally is not China's interest. Russia will also be having share in NK affairs in that situation. Overall it would be very difficult for West and SK to take on N. Korea politically. In this situation a Transition Government might be the only solution, with both food and economic aid, making N.Korea gradually ready for the eventual reunification.

4:37 ⚠️⚠️ Typo here : OPLAN 5015 not 5029

Is the reunification monument destroyed now?

How will the people migrate south... across one of the most fortified borders with lots of landmines? How?

One thing not mentioned is Samsung's position on reunification. Samsung is BY FAR the largest corporation in South Korea and is beyond integral to their economy and politics. By itself, Samsung would make or break any reunification effort. As to China, who knows how they would react. One would hope they would see the long term benefit to a rich trading partner next door. But probably, given the paranoia that all single party dictatorships seem to suffer from, they will likely see a unified Korea as a threat.

escapes fron nk to south, gets depression. there are no good guys or good sides

Interesting, all things considered, continued hostile militarism between all parties is in no ones best interests, it’s tragic that a peaceful solution where everyone worked together to solve the many issues…

Ideal: after the initial inevitable mass migration crisis, SK absorbs NK. China allows that with the promise of less or no American presence in SK. Nuclear weapons are disposed off (even thou some are unaccounted for during the scramble) as a part of the negotiation. I think SK could handle the integration better than Germany even with decades of indoctrination and cultural drift. Although some of the negatives are worse than East Germany, the Korean situation is better than the situation Germany had in other aspects. They could create incentive zones centered around Pyongyang and maybe a couple of port cities turning them into new industrial zones which would change the focus of migration to these cities instead to Seoul. Some of the migrants would be directed to the depopulated SK rural towns. SK is the breadbasket of the peninsula traditionally, so they could work there with proper incentives. NK could focus on being the industrial heartland and resource extraction zone which could absorb most of the NK workforce. It does have industrial capacity even thou it is pretty outdated. Infrastructure investment would need to be quite large, but SK construction corporations are second to none. It could open up investment opportunities for everyone. As long SK economy can cope with such shock, maybe a second economic miracle can happen in Korea. Cursed: SK only recovers up to Pyongyang district. China holds the districts near the northwest zone and put a puppet there and a small independent state in the northeast is controlled by a warlord who holds most of the nukes and he's crazier than the Kim family, blasting a small town near the new border as a threat. SK takes a huge hit economically handling their new NK territory which set back Korean economy for decades. Resentment among NKs and SKs may cause further divisions in politics. The new status quo is less predictable which makes USA, China, and Japan more wary of their geopolitical goals in the region.

Garunteed the average North Korean doesn’t make 1800 a year it’s probably Closer to 180 a year most said she earn 50 cents a day

Integration will be a fifty to seventy five year process. At least. Subsidies for some of the obsolete factories might be a good temporary solution. Indeed, some of those products might find niche markets.

The South should tell the North that when the North Korean Regime falls, they will send food, medical and other assistance. This will cause the people of the North to remove the Regime.

A north European model of welfare would help immensely on integration and mental health but unfortunately, just like Japan, Korea has as their only model the American wild frontier

"Chic Ken" 😆

In today's world, N. Korea would be more likely to get into a nuclear war with S. Korea and the US than collapse. N. Korea's economy is improving now that they and Russia have significant trade relations. Russia has lots of oil, gas, grain/food to trade for N. Korea's 152mm ammo and missiles. With massive imports of oil/gas many of those now dark cities will be lite up at night. Massive food imports from Russia will also end hunger when N. Korean crops fail from bad weather. And China will invest and build infrastructure, pipelines for the gas from Russia, power plants to burn the gas. Oil refineries to use the oil to make all sorts of products.

Im more concerned with our own government than rocket boy.

Reunification of Germany didn't lead to a recession. All that investment would lead to a boom, I would guess. But, expensive, it would be

This scenario poses several interesting questions. Is there a non-military Chinese gov't agency responsible for this transition? What is its current status and funding? If West Germany were 1 on the scale of social disruption and recovery expenditure, how would that compare to S. Koreans'' projected expenditure and stress? Everyone could learn many lessons from W. German efforts and mistakes at reunification. What would be Japan's role? The Japanese could redeem many past sins against Korea by providing generous funding and on-the-ground support for this effort, and advertising as much. Modern, peaceful Japan to the rescue; versus Korea's monstrous memory of Imperial Japan. Reunification funding will be extravagant. However, after the first few years, regional military expenditures should drop considerably, assuming China remains strategically passive in this theater. There will have to be a broad, de-militarized zone along the China's Korean border, subject to Chinese withdrawal with guarantees. The Chinese are allergic to strategic commitment in Korea, based on past disasters in this sphere. What will the long term effects of this transition be on international military adventurism currently rabid and money-grubbing on both sides? Have the Chinese and American militaries already agreed to a combined force to seize and neutralize Korean nuke assets expeditiously with 100% success (i.e. not at lethal cross-purpose)? I do not understand why this agreed force has not surgically decapitated Korean leadership and gotten on with the tasks ahead. I doubt if most N. Koreans would resist, any more than Vichy French forces resisted Allied invasion of N. Africa. A few shots, then "Where do I sign up with you guys"? I don't see Seoul being shelled flat for weeks, unless this intervention is seriously bungled. That would not surprise me, given Iraq War mismanagement by ignorant Repugnant ideologues, and Chinese taste for junkyard dogs (unstable failed states) on their borders.

There would be no mass migration south as the NK's minefields are so extensive few would get through them.

crazy

This video can be summed up with "duh"

Reunification = Reunification tax for S Koreans

So this is what it like being early... (I dont know what to comment)

So North-North korea?

I LOVE LIGHT POLUTION!!!

Good video but you could tone down extending the last letter like: countryyyy, capacityyy, neccessityyyy

나는 모든 한국을 지지한다. 하나의 한국. 단일. 사랑. 존중.

The proposed system One country two systems by Kim Jong-Ill could work well in theory, slowly integrating both Koreas together. As long as opertunism doesn't ruin it.

Its not sun shine and rainbows my friends theres a high chance china might take it to be close to japan and south korea

Please reduce the music while talking. It's quite hard to understand you at some points

Benefits for both sides. Same thing that remains the same through history.

What does Yeonmi Park think of this analysis?

At this rate one has to ask if North Korea will ever be free and be able to have their own nation not controlled by China or Russia, if the regime ever collapses.