The Past, Present, and Future of EV's 

I knew youll be here ;)

Waiting to see your video on it! This is so informative and ICE is so dead

@@maximilianodominguez6191 he is watching and learning everything about tesla

Steve!

This. Matters.

This one was deep. Upvote.

Tesla's cars are not slow! :)

As Elon Musk elegantly put it "It's the speed of innovation that matters".

Fail forward fast. 😎

I wouldn't dismiss show so easily. Most reliable, cheapest to own vehicles are the ones that have been slowest to change. Search youtube for the maintenance on an out of warranty Tesla. It looks like a nightmare. If you can afford to drop $50K every 3 to 4 years on a disposable car (especially with new batteries as a part of structure), I have to agree, Tesla is hard to beat.

I see this more as Elon doesn't suffer from "not invented here". So he will grab and run with good ideas that come from anywhere.

Yeah - incl. all the ones from Tesla owners !!

I'd say that everybody respects Munro. From the aerospace industry to Auto OEM, not only Elon Musk.

If you look at the scale of investment, and development involved, it's more likely that Tesla were doing those things anyway, but his experience meant Sandy saw the signs. "You don't get them from Burger King..." (Casting machines?) That was years in planning.

@@rogerstarkey5390 casting machines, yes certainly that was years in development, but there are several much smaller things that Sandy pointed out with 3 and even Y that Tesla have changed. Which indicates that Tesla are watching his videos. And why shouldn't they be? It's literally free manufacturing advice. Just like all brands are generally aware of professional criticism... but Tesla is unique in deploying changes based on that criticism in almost real time and transforming their products immediately instead of waiting for a big model-year revision.

Thanks Alshafi! We appreciate the compliment.

That slide should become a Meme 🤣

Thanks! Tell your friends.

@@MunroLive Already did. Three of them actually. This was of of the best insight summary of the EV industry i´ve seen so far. It showed what I always tell. Tesla is not just a company, just as Ford was not just a company. As Ford was at the forefront of the industrial revolution in the early 20th century, the same´s happening with Tesla. Seems like vertical integration of the value chain and posponing profits in exchange of greater innovation and long term profits, as well of technological and enviromental impact acountability is the way to go for the years to come.

@@matiasval1895 Totally agree. Tesla's business sales model is also making a real impact on how other OEM's do business. I been noticing the increasing number of vehicle TV adverts for different companies that imitate the order online approach here n the UK.

True. Plus he is a true gentleman.

This, is the best comment.

Josh, thanks for the props!

Cannot say it better

Iz mark they used horses in mines till they dropped dead...

Peter Harris they used men in mines until they dropped dead. Same in both WW1 and WW2 and horses there as well.

Along with a photo of Gordon Johnson. Arguably a big horse's derrière Lol!

Donkey*

👌👌👌

Electric is not gonna pay the salesmans salary, hence their willful ignorance.

Veikko Immonen The job of those salesmen will go away with ICE cars, as people will just rent cars to try them and then shop online, so of course he’s not keen on the subject

Adam Ritter Very true. However, a professional who knowingly ignores the realities of his field is a fraudster and one who does it out of ignorance is not a professional to begin with. We took the business elsewhere. It’s time for every part of the ICE industry to re-evaluate their position and take corrective action today. This includes the dealers and every single salesman. Time to think about re-training yourself to doing something else.

"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink!"

@@richardpark3054 - Horse to Water, wow, I couldn't even get the Horse to follow me! But, my Neighbor just Banged a Grain Can, and they came Running to him, for some Oats! So, to make the Horse Drink, you put Salt in his Oats! Not Too much, but Just Enough! BEV Fans, "Over SALT" their "Oats", when talking to ICE Car Sales People! They already Know More than the ICE Guys do, about EV's, and it Intimidates those folks! So, they push back! Best thing is, get them into a fun subject they love, then show them a hint, then pull away! Hasn't anyone gone "Fishing" before? You don't try and "Reel The Fish In, in One Step!" I think, have them try 3 BEV's out, in Order: A Simple EV Conversion, then a 2011 LEAF or iMiEV, then a Current Model 3 Performance! Summing it up for them: "The Model 3 is Outselling ALL Other BEV's, AND Many ICE Vehicles! Now you know Why!" Maybe arrange an Event, where only ICE Car & Truck Salespeople are Invited, and Allowed in to take this 3 Car Test Drive Experience, on a Challenge: "If you can Explain how your ICE Vehicle Competes, and will Survive the Coming Onslaught of BEV's, then, test Drive a Model S Performance, and see if it changes your mind!" Maybe, if 500 such Events were Arranged, across the USA, Canada, Europe, China, Australia, etc, Each Month, for a Year, the Tide would Turn, Rapidly?

😆

ICE motors and transmissions have a life cycle and designers attempt to reuse tooling for the next product iteration, if that's possible. They'll attempt to keep older tooling in production a little longer, but it doesn't last forever anyway. An ICE design isn't a generality, its a specific spec and the most costly tooling is not universally useful for other ICE designs. If a manufacturer gets a dozen years from a certain architecture, that's great for costs for that engine family, but it could mean very little for the next design.

@@timothykeith1367 Agree. The ICE manufacturers face a dilemma. Built into their financial system are assumptions about how many vehicles will be built using their investments in equipment, which are reflected in their prices. If they have to scrap those investments before they have made the number of vehicles they planned, they have a smaller number of vehicles across which to spread their investments. Consequently, they are not just being stubborn when they are reluctant to make changes faster than originally anticipated. They recognize there are real problems making changes to their equipment, including making past models retroactively less profitable or even money losers. That can initiate a cascade that leads nowhere good.

So true, and cleverly said. Bravo.

@@MTerrance Automakers must scrap their tooling regardless of whether EVs threaten them. The tooling to manufacture a certain engine design is specific for that product. The GM 3800 was a popular V6 that many people still admire, but when it was discontinued the tooling was scrapped. Tesla tooling isn't also generally reusable, but there would be less of it to scrap when a product becomes obsolete. There will always be demand for a vehicle with a 500 mile range at a Camry price - something that EVs can't manage for many years, if ever. EVs will be popular city cars a decade from now, but more range at a lower price is needed, incremental improvements to chemical batteries might not be possible at a reasonable cost. I'd like to see a video of the theoretical limits of the battery tech by a physicist. All technology has limits by laws of nature. The battery tech will be great for cordless power tools, but automobiles have captive passengers who have range anxiety and the U.S. is a vast territory - and the average age of a vehicle is 12 years, so Americans aren't spending as much on new cars as they used to. EVs are claimed to last longer, so many Americans will be buying used EVs. Aftermarket batteries will be sold for Teslas, Rock Auto will sell parts for them and beater EVs will be numerous in the 15 year old American vehicle fleet of the future.

The question is by how much. 10x more valuable than number 2? 69x? 420x?

If they continue on their current path, they will dwarf Apple and Amazon combined within 10 years.

Tesla rules the battery roost.

Which was predicted at least five to six years ago.

Yes

Thanks!

@@MunroLive Yes, that could be very interesting. Someone who has thought a lot about the future along with someone who has a good understanding of how to make the future happen. I'd love to hear how Sandy might deal with Tony's prediction of a roughly 7x drop in new car demand once we have an adequate number of robotaxis. That's a move from ~70 million new cars per year to ~14 million. Then have Sandy take it a step further by talking about how a Cyber-robo could mean a vehicle which lasts decades rather than only a few year in heavy use. If Tesla is building their current EVs for 1 million mile use those cars would each replace four 'normal' cars that are pretty much worn out at 250k miles. 14 million drops to under 5 million. A stainless steel body that was easy to maintain might easily last 20 years. At a million miles per decade the number of new cars needed per year would drop to about 2 million.

@@bobwallace9753 Are you the Bob Wallace that used to be a mainstay on CleanTechnica? I wondered where you went. Are you the same one?

@@bigdaddy1279 An older and grayer version of the same. I attracted some rather nasty stalkers as a function of troll whacking while doing the mod work for CT so I set up a new Disqus account with an email address I basically don't check. I couldn't find a way to change the email account associated with my full name. I still comment on CT but not as often. The community there has gained a lot of very knowledgeable members who bring the facts. I'm spending more time on places where knowledge levels are not very advanced. Trying to help out the climate problem by helping more people understand the technologies we have that can get us off fossil fuels.

Yes that would be great to see, however Tony Seba has been saying fuel prices will drop when EV's reach critical mass as there will be plenty of supply but little demand. Yet Sandy claims fuel prices will increase......I would like to see them discuss that.

I'm trying to diversify but it's dam hard.

I did buy more TESLA today!

jake Hawtin your problem is my problem :) I bought it at $40 ($200 old price) and 5% of my account, now to keep TSLA under 20% without selling a share takes WORK!! as in keep putting more money in other investments weekly

@@simoc24 I started off diversified, but decided to just let it run without trying to re-balance...Now TSLA is 75% of my portfolio. With confidence in their future, it no longer bothers me to be undiversified. Feels like the safest use of my money.

@@turningpoint4238 ARKK-Crazy good ETF so far, but also holds TSLA

Thanks!

Thanks Shabba! We try.

Thanks! The team appreciates the shout out.

I wonder will those old boys in Autoline will see this? How to send this to them?

I emailed the video to them :)

@@simoc24 Cruel.... But I suspect they won't watch.

Roger Starkey they may :) they respect Sandy

It was obvious in 2007 with the roadster. 200-300 range with 0-60 in 3 seconds

Thanks! Glad you enjoy our channel.

Humility, while being right.

It's very Asian.

Which quote?

I just posted something similar before I saw your comment. I'm 99% certain M&A are master class trolls.

@@Kay12ization thanks buddy but calm down haha

PhiliChez I would have politely kept my mouth shut if you mentioned you had anything to do with fit and finish. I at least haven’t had any pack issues with either of my cars!

@@Kay12ization I'm the last eyes on the assembly line for that component before it's added to the pack. If I miss issues then things can go wrong, but I think I do a good job.

Thanks! Get the word out, tell a friend!

"Jajajaja"?

Great insight David. Thanks for tuning in.

@@MunroLive thanks so much for the compliment it means a lot coming from you.

BEV will make ICEV seem like a Horse & Buggy in 2020.

"The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones."

@@rcjbvermilion the oil age will not end because we ran out of oil. A few years ago in Australia a storm damaged a certain amount of the banana crop. Demand exceeded supply. The price per kilo went from $1.50 to $15. Most folk refrained from buying them. If the price of fuel went to $10 a litre most folk would refrain from buying.

@@grahammewburn That was the same point he was making?

@@rogerstarkey5390 good

DentArthurDent - So you you drive a Tesla? I do, a MS.

Thanks Diego!

I agree.

Thanks Lee!

Thanks!

Thanks for sharing!

Jeffrey Hudson - With Tesla it’s also the small eating the big.

Yes he is a entertaining person to watch I agree %100 percent👏👏👏👏👏

I think he is very entertaining to watch.

Software yes, but at the core they are an ENGINEERING company, innovating on EVERY field of engendering, computer, chemical, mechanical, civil, industrial, even biological recently...

Tesla uses software in everything it does, but Elon Musk was clear on Battery Day that manufacturing is its biggest challenge and potentially biggest differentiator. That sounds more like engineering, with first principle from physics determining what the limits are - how fast can you form the anode-separator-cathode sandwich, how fast can you roll it and stuff it in a can, etc.

Thanks Zeljko!

Thanks Ro!

Thanks Bruce!

Perhaps the OEM's still think that their competition is each other. Time is the deciding factor now.

@@carlstockmal It's like they're on a sinking ship and are fighting over how to divide the shrinking floor space...

Thanks Claudio

yes, spot on... Munro has been very consistent in using lean design principles for his analysis. That's why his comments are so compelling.

- If I recall correctly, Sandy said boss Kettering invented leaded gasoline. If the EPA had existed back then, that wouldn’t have been approved. Leaded gas killed, sickened or cut short the lives of millions around the world. Countless children to this day absorb lead from contaminated souls. The 20 years after WW II were the peak years for lead pollution in the US, during which a generation of boomers came of age contaminated w/ lead in their systems, plus the next-gen kids to ~1973 when lead was banned.This caused the crime rate to stay elevated until these poisoned kids matured past their high-crime years, and then the last crime rate dropped back down to the norm for the first 2/3s of the century. Black kids were affected more than whites cuz they lived in denser areas w/ extra lead (& mercury) poisoning from coal power plants, water pipes, and lead paint (plus a little extra asbestos, too).

Not until you can fill EV's as fast as ICE, the majority won't put up with the wait time.

@A N Other It won't be anytime soon, the energy requirements are too demanding on the network. To be able to fill a EV in ten minutes you would need a charger to pump out 1000kw...that is a hell of a cable to manage that.

@@Robert-cu9bm charge time matters to people who don't have access to a plug at home or work. EVs will primarily be bought by all the people who do, and the infrastructure will improve to grow their number. Eventually the harder sell to people who have to fit charging into their weekly routine will start, but by then those people will be surrounded by BEVs and chargers.

@@skierpage That's a fantasy world. Every parking spot would need a charger, how much co2 would that add Changing a entire electricity network. There are much better ways to slow down co2 emissions.. Ie: focus on big ships. Changing just 15 of them would make a much bigger that all the cars.

@Neel Javia Actually you don't newatlas.com/shipping-pollution/11526/

Spot on... Has everyone forgot what happened 6 months ago. Demand sank, prices free fell down. Cheapest fuel in years, to the point they were paying for it to be taken from them.

I said this in another comment, sorry for saying it again. The Oil industry has its own economies of scale. Drilling, refineries and pipelines all become more expensive per barrel as demand drops. The initial response may be lower prices, but eventually the other costs will filter in. The oil industry is used to a boom or bust, but an extended drop in demand will eventually make costs go up. Agree with "Tesala" :)

@@normcfu The producer of a commodity cannot raise its price above competitors because the products are not differentiated. The "oil industry" is not monolithic. First ones to raise prices will go out of business.

Ref Audi... They, like all the others reacted late then relied on 3rd party cell manufacturers who were also caught napping. We're about to see a step change in batteries over the next 12 months, but.... Just as they move close to the Tesla 2170, Tesla makes its own move.... These companies (Audi, etc) won't have exclusivity in battery tech for some time, if ever. That in itself makes it difficult for them to break from the pack and catch Tesla. Their cell, and probably motor performance will be similar to those around their level, if one does make a step, it will affect those companies before Tesla. Possible exceptions? VW.... Maybe Hyundai/ Kia, if only due to the industrial might of the Hyundai Group.

I'm curious, are there people who would buy a GM, for example, made with Tesla parts, rather than a Tesla? If GM made an exact duplicate model 3 with 100% Tesla parts and charged $4,000 less for it, I would still buy a Tesla for the Supercharger network alone.

@@rogerstarkey5390 VAG recently announced plans to start a battery research group early next year. Tesla brought in Jeff Dahn like four years ago already, and just showed us the amazing results of their work so far. Safe to say Tesla knew more about batteries when they started their efforts than VAG knows now, so VAG is five Tesla years behind the much faster moving Tesla, which is seven or eight VAG years. The dark horse here is Toyota, who have had a battery research group all along even while stupidly burning money on hydrogen. If they can perfect the solid state batteries they are working on, maybe they can catch up with Tesla.

In the 1990's I use to occasionally drive one when working for our local Co-op milkman. Not much speed but loads of torque, great fun and with hindsight - amazingly revolutionary.

Thanks!