4th house I've found that Blackstone is selling. What's consistent among the locations? Skyrocketing inventory. Below are the ZIP codes and associated inventory growth YoY of the Blackstone selling locations. 33545 Wesley Chapel: +87.9% inventory growth YoY 34221 Palmetto: +67.6% 33709 St. Petersburg: +70.9% 34205 Bradenton: +61.7% Seems like they're targeting high inventory growth markets with slowest rental activity. Access the data on inventory for your area to see if there's a selloff occurring on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
The video seems interesting. It appears they're just going to create Project-based Section 8 housing and receive market-rate rent from the government, regardless of the situation. I'll only believe it's a market crash when property taxes decrease, home prices drop nationwide, major insurance companies return to Florida, and the same trend is observed in other states.
The formula isn't that complicated. Prices will come down to the point that the average home price and associated carrying cost equals 1/3rd the average income. The median Florida income is $67,917 /3= $22,639 or $1,886/month PITI and HOA. With current interest rates 6.9% and 20% down would require the average home price should be $285K before HOA and CDD dues. This is also assuming you have the $57K 20% down payment. This formula suggests home prices will drop another 28%.
Wait a minute. What’s driving down the Florida market isn’t just drying up buyer demand but two other factors contributing: Escalating insurance premiums Rising property taxes Rising HOA fees leading to the collapse of the condo market This isn’t a normal market downturn. Buying now in a market like Florida is crazy especially with climate and weather related issues increasing
There never was a shortage of homes - at all. Just scumag speculators hoarding homes and trying to get rich extorting others. People should find them and deliver some justice
I live in a very rural area and our neighbors listed their 2019 purchased price 210k home for $360k this month! That’s crazy! Nobody in our area can afford that junk ranch home that’s $150k too high, especially when we don’t have big paying employers in this county. I had no idea because we bought our homes in 2010 and a couple others in 2015 and 2016. We bought three homes because we wanted to refurbish and do vacation rentals. Now I’m thanking god we didn’t sell them, and I don’t see buying anything else until this market crashes.
30-35% larger roughly. And that doesn't account for the simultaneous 40%-60% increases in homeowner's insurance, water and electric bills and grocery bills as well, which is something that didn't even happen to compound the problem in 2007-2008. There was no inflation issue caused by out-of-control spending in 2007, just a bubble of 4.9X the median income for the median priced home caused by subprime loans and ARMs. Today, it's a bubble of 6.8X the median income for the median priced home caused by the government STARTING to hand out $6 trillion in "free" newly printed money at the TOP of 2019's 10-year economic peak and already-new all-time highs. People really don't understand how much worse this is. We have TWO 2008 bubbles stacked on top of each other. The only reason subprime loans and ARMs in 2005-2007 even mattered is because they CAUSED the bubble, and that unaffordability caused the crash. People get that wrong SO often. This bubble is worse, even without the ARMs. We have more subprime loans this time around, but they're disguised as good loans because people had 800 credit scores. An 800 credit score doesn't matter when 10 million people got loans for $350k on a home that cost $180k 2 years beforehand while earning $70k, and then they all lose their incomes entirely.
Exactly. But why is he telling us to make an offer on a falling knife? These houses need to go down about 70% in relation to wages, taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs.
In Florida or the US/?I doubt that what's happening now in Floriday is anything close to the subprime mortgage disaster where armies of families were losing their homes or stuck with properties wildly under water for years.
Absolutely right. To fix this problem immediately, the government needs to pass a law that single family homes must be inhabited by the buyer, like they do with FHA loans. Corporations buying single family homes is becoming a dangerous national security threat.
Well that's Harris's plan to flood the country with 10:15 20 million illegals then those illegals will all get minimum wage jobs piling their resources together to buy a house from the corporations turning our nation into a third world country
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
I just copied and pasted Jennafer’s whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
The investors made a tremendous impact on homes back in 2021, 2022 here in Florida glad to see that Wall Street investment firms are lossing their shirts!
Yep, but too bad large pensions (mostly) and banks have been taking on enormous commercial real estate losses brokered by B.S.tone like the recent case in NYC where a ~$400 million loss was absorbed.
Selling for a small loss means you have tax write-offs which is a positive. But nothing was mentioned about income they earned while holding. Might have broke even who knows
Then they'll soon "buy them all back" (at 20 cents on the 'fiat' dollar) as par. Wall Street "pump n' dump..." 101 ! (Aka: Buy low, sell high...) Only now the Hedge Funds (of the Big Bank/ ers) are also jacking the INSURANCE costs... to the moon, and the property taxation is also going to "implode" local to state budgets!
That's great. I would not want to see anything else but Blackstone lose their asses on all these houses they bought. If there is anything that contributes to the terrible rise in house prices, it is a company like Blackstone that go into many neighborhoods and buy up all available houses only to rent them out. I'm still waiting for legislation that prohibits companies from buying residential properties.
Only way to do that is to figure out a way to get people to voluntarily NOT buy their houses. But, as usual, they'll get out whole while leaving the carnage for regular people.
Low Rates were not a reason for these investors to buy where were they expecting buyers or renters to come from some or another these investors developers were banking on aliens from out of space to rent or buy - we have run out of selling to foreign owners now and it’s shame that for profit we depended on foreigners 😮
@@stephenshuman1I agree. I worked in mortgage banking in early eighties when interest rates for homes were about 16% and car loans were 14%. Inflation under President Carter was high so it took several years to flog inflation.
Holy Moly! Those houses are packed in there tight. Who wants to live that close to anyone?! Nothing like smelling your neighbors, their pets, and their funky cooking. Good luck finding a descent neighbor you actually like.
That's funny. We are so used to living close together that it feels weird to have more land. Plus more land requires more of your time and money for up keep
Hmmm. Really? So, $212,000? I suspect that these homes are pretty shoddy, but show me any place where even the shoddiest of homes, except for up some "holler" in West Virgina, can be had for that amount?
I bought a 1979 build, concrete block Florida house five years ago. Sure, it needed updates, but the thing is built like a fortress and survived a dozen direct hit hurricanes just fine. I see new construction going up in my area, and I shake my head in disbelief. Wood frames with particle board. Those homes are doomed.
Nope, they're just not up for rental. People are moving into the Tampa Bay area at an insane pace. You can't believe everything you see. If the next president fixes the rates the buying boom will start again and prices will increase again.
Those basic cookie cutter style cheaply built houses in Wesley Chapel are way over priced and they look horrible. No classic building styles. Ridiculous.
My dad lives in Ft. Myers. People had their houses washed away in the hurricane. If they had insurance for a hurricane, a lot of companies went broke. So the people lost everything they owned, with no insurance. It is kind of a brutal way to live. My dad lives far inland, so he was barely affected by the hurricane.
My Florida house was appraised at $80,000 in 2012, now $300,000. Rents for $2,100. I just keep collecting the rents. Happy for me. Blackstone can afford to lose money, not a big deal. Commercial companies should not own single family houses. Wrong market.
Guess what ,builders were reducing rent for a 300000 house ,brand new for 900... One year lease in 2008...fha mtg for same house was 2100 with escrow.. so many turned in their keys....old story in Florida but real ...
Sure you are collecting 2100 in rent per month, but after expenses, maybe you make 1000 a month, while your home price will decline 100K over the coming 2 years. So you will end up given back some of that money. Landlords need to do the calculations of how much they will lose by hanging onto properties. It is possible if we have a bad crash that the home sells for 150 in the future. When there are no buyers, there are no buyers.
Excellent video with enough proof 👏👏👏, Florida is a huge proof of how the USA market is going. My wife and I make over 100k and we bought a home in Utah for 430k paying 3100 per month it’s super not affordable
I'm getting notices on my zillow, for Ocala Florida. Price cuts from 5,000 to 20,000 every other day. Home values are still ridiculously high. Nobody's going to turn a big profit. They would be better off hunkering down, and riding out the storm. No way is it going to get better in the next 3 years it's going to get worse.
I stepped out of the market in 2022, and now, interest rates remain significantly higher, along with skyrocketing home prices, property taxes, and insurance costs, HOA... But what about my salary? It hasn't increased at all. The housing market is still unaffordable, it's simple. In our area, house prices have more than doubled! So how am I supposed to re-enter the market and buy now? For it to be affordable for me, both prices and interest rates would need to drop below 2022 levels. People who already own homes can refinance, but that doesn’t help new buyers like me get in.
If Nick is correct on his housing crash thesis, you will have an opportunity to buy at much lower prices in the next 12 to 24 months. I believe prices will decrease in certain submarkets by 10 to 20%, but I don't believe Nick's nationwide thesis is correct
Don't feel like you are missing out. Find Nick's video on buying a house vs. renting. There is NO benefit to buying. Other than your life is more stable. No financial advantage. Especially the way we are taxed on real estate.
Florida, once the land of cheap living, is kaput. Unless you buy a trailer, don't carry any insurance, and pray to your god(s) that no hurricanes send your home airborne.
I bought in 2011 in Florida. Blackstone isn't the only bad guy. I was given broker priced opinions that were not an accurate description of the property. I would read the bpo then go to the place. It wasn't even close. So the realtors were to blame too. They would keep me out of the property until the 30 day owner occupancy contingency expired and then sell it to their friends. One realtor stole people's credit cards in Kentucky and then was given a license in Florida. Once Florida knew they pulled her license but how did she get one? You should warn your viewers about realtors and the recent lawsuit.
I’m in Florida and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2019, and I return at least $121k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
As a new investor, I find it valuable to hear from someone who has navigated challenging times and emerged successful. What strategies can I use to achieve success?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Jessica Lee Horst for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Thank you for sharing, I must say she appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled
Check out the history. In just the two years since it was built it was sold twice. March 2022 originally sold for $324K, then sold again June 2023 for $372K. Next, listed July 30, 2024 for $410K then raised to $412K the next day on July 31st. Like a hot potato. lol (and not sustainable)
If I ran Blackstone I would sell a bunch of houses for a huge loss leading into rate cut time. Then I would create an artificial bottom and moms and pops would then sell low due to the comps having the Blackstone dumping mixed in. Then I'd buy up everything again at the bottom and end up holding even more SFHs. The $80k loss on a dozen homes is negating huge rent income.
You know if the property market collapses like in 2008 the Blacktones and Blackrocks of the world will go running to the Federal Government and asking for a bailout because they are "too big to fail" , I hope they don't get bailed out because this is what enables them to do this. No one is too big to fail while the rest of us are too small to save!
They are owned by the government, and will buy up all the foreclosures like they did in 2008, especially in Vegas (40,000 foreclosures never hit the market as the banks sold to these investors).
There going to dump homes that are not making money and have high maintenance costs. Expect McMansions to be sold first. The good 3/1 starter homes they will hold on to that have good ROI as rentals.
Florida home prices are volatile. We are familiar with a town 45 minutes N of Wesley Chapel. Our first exposure to this area was 2005. A nice home was $350 k to $400 K. We rented for (4) months for about (5) years. The home prices dropped to $150 k in 2011 and we bought. The previous owner build that home for $200 k to $250 k. Zillow lists that (our) home now for $350 k. Those are big changes and current prices seem high to me.
Wesley Chapel where no one wants to live. The house is worth no more than the median price. If not less because this is far from a large metro. $75,000 drop is only because it was listed $100k over.
I was in that area in 2022 people were standing in line at the sales office . I kept telling myself I saw the same thing in Las Vegas 2004 and how did that turn out. So Im still renting and waiting in the high weeds to pounce on the up coming deals.
Blackstone is a hedge fund. They aren't selling anything at a loss. Their investors, however, might be losing something. But ultimately, these are paper losses. Elsewhere, they are making obscene returns. Blackstone will be fine, don't worry.
The problem for Investors in Florida is owning a Home there has gotten extremely expensive , especially Insurance . And more troubling for Investors is that you can only squeeze people for so much money for Rent till no one can afford it .
Since Blackrock owns almost every company in the US, it would be fun to know how many builders are under the Blackrock umbrella. Builders are going crazy here in Florida, but they could be headed for sell offs.
Not true. Fidelity has $13 trillion in assets under management, BlackRock has $10 trillion, and Vanguard has $9 trillion. Then there are several more with assets of, say, under $3 to $1 trillion apiece (Merrill Lynch, TIAA, Franklin Templeton, et alia). It's also my understanding that whatever BlackRock and the other large entities have invested in housing properties, it pales in comparison to the assets owned by individual private investors. For instance, we all likely know multiple people who have investment properties. Multiply all of those across the country and they dwarf the large investors.
You don't really know what Blackstone is doing. They don't care about 1 house in particular because they deal in hundreds and thousands of houses. If the aggregate ROI on the homes in their portfolio over their average hold period is up 200%, they're not going to be very concerned if they have to sell 1 house down 15%, when it represents .001% of the entire portfolio.
Blackstone can just slowly sell a certain percentage of their inventory and continue to force prices down, then when prices have crashed low enough, buy up all the houses on the market again and push prices back up and own even more than before.
after the housing crisis years ago, why the hell are we still allowing greedy investment firms to play with the housing market? wont even go into how unfair if it is for a family trying to buy ONE home, to ya know, actually reside in.
Well said. These investment firms are doing it because the US housing market is the largest asset class in the United States, and these firms have already plundered the rest of the different markets. They are just sucking the lifeblood out of all of America now by doing this, like a Salem's Lot movie.
Free? Hardly, the Congress really blew this one. They didn't understand 2008 so it happened again. Never was the banks, it was the big retirement companies.
I just saw that exact house for sale on Zillow yesterday. I cannot believe he chose that house to use as an example today. in my opinion, Its worth 275K
I bought my 1954 home 3 bedroom 1 bathroom 1200sqf for $59,500. 4 miles west of downtown Tampa. Kennedy Blvd and Dale Mabry hwy. Now the empty lots are selling for way over 500k. I don't understand. My neighborhood is being replaced with new houses and I am feeling the pressure from contractors wanting to get rid off us to build a new house here. Why would I want to move when our taxes are $875. a year. Our home insurance have gone up to $3000.a year. Old house prices over $5000,000. It's crazy. Over price every where in South Tampa
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Honestly, I'm surprised that this mrs Stacey Macken is mentioned here, came across a testimony about her from one of the beneficiaries on the CNBC news, she seems to be doing extremely well .
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What the video doesn’t disclose is that the second ghost neighborhood is empty because they’re not finished building yet. I live around the corner and those townhomes get filled as soon as they’re ready. I do think his first point is valid and the market overall is somewhat overpriced.
It's like a field of gophers, so many new homes. Two reasons, it's outside the city sewer and all the houses are up on septic pads, that extra 8' really stops flooding.
Thank you! I live in Tampa area and I’ve been saying this sellers are delusional thinking where all they’ve done is put up a ceiling fan and it should sell higher then a new construction. It’s like their fingers are crossed hoping for that out state lotto ticket to hit and someone to pay over asking with a cash offer. Those days are over are with! Hopefully, good sign of the prices getting back to normal.
Holy crap, I’m looking to move to wesley chapel in about a month, renting a single family house. I thought rent prices were starting to go down, looks like it wasn’t just in my head
Aww most Floridians are vaping and high believing,they are immune to reality...not knowing that contractor will squeeze out a profit as they build 900;1000, sg ft. For 120000 ?or less ...lumber is falling ...we ain't seen nothing yet , good video 👍
I built my house as the USA went into a double dip, 1981 thru 84 downturn. Houses, on land, prices plunged 60% . Ya. 2008 was a another washout... Good luck...because investment funds have really screwed up the market, and additionally COVID19.....very overvalued.
That one house is meaningless, plus Blackstone doesn't loose anything, they're financers loose so they don't care. The financers don't care either, they can get all the printed money they want. Sucks for people who have to work for money to invest and buy stuff with.
as a property manager for over 10 years all i can say is single family homes is not what i would invest in they typically sell for less because of wear and tear and lack of upkeep the profits just arent there it is just an asset that needs a lot of attention like any business it can be passive but there is a big expense every year when tenants move out and the higher the rent the less likely it is tenants stay i have never seen so many people moving every year whole house paint new carpet landscapers tree trimmers i mean, unless the house is by a university or some wonderful thing, just invest in something else
Yeah, I believe the interest rates getting pushed down will put more buyers back in the market. Blackstone selling at a loss isn’t a huge deal… they take losses like this all the time to offset their capital gains. They have better means for their money. We may have a 15% decline any more than that though, I don’t think so. How many properties do you own if I may ask?
30 year fixed rate on the day of the Fed Rate cut: 6.11%. Today, 5 days later: 6.20% (+0.09%). Rates were pricing a much more aggressive interest rate cut forecast than The Fed outlined in their press conference. A 6% sustained rate for 30 year fixed was probably at least a year and a half ahead of reality. 30 year fixed will probably not get all the way to 6% until end of 2025.
How do you know what they actually paid for the house any house? That price you showed was the appraisal value not the price they paid. In fact they purchased lots of homes 10, 20, 50, 100 homes at a time... for a bid price.... they paid pennies on the dollar... for that and all properties they purchased.
9:02 so that’s what a “catching falling knives” looks like. Sure you’ll get the home 30% blow asking price, but what if the homes completely crash? Houses end up being 50-80k? Then you’re fully boned.
In the first segment where the smaller house was priced, the same as the bigger house and only had 5 saves. Trust me, those 5 saves are holding on to low ball offers cumming their way
The thing about corporate selling is they can sell 1, 10, 100 or even 10,000 homes, but buy zero. This is radically different than your average homeowner selling his primary residence.. because most people immediately buy a different home to avoid being homeless... A home owner adds supply but corresponding demand to go with it.. Investors could absolutely flood the market with supply if they start to panic.
Um, the market in Florida is likely comprised of individual sellers trying to reap an unwarranted profit, people who bought long ago in Florida when it was cheap to live and are now financially challenged by living on a budget, and some larger corporations trying to abandon those investments (not renting, running costs skyrocketing). No housing "panic" can happen, because those trying to take a huge profit, buying years ago, cheaply and at rock bottom interest rates, would still have to buy an even more expensive house at insane rates. Ain't gonna happen. Though there are those who have become to "poor" to maintain living in Florida, who are selling and leaving the state. Then there are also all those condos....
I lived in Orlando in 2019, and chose to leave the state because of housing prices. I was renting but could not find any decent home under $400k. I am a high earner and moved to GA for a better paying job and better housing.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Maurine Lanting” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Wish that would happen in Humboldt County, CA. Prices are out of control for what the median income is. Locals can't afford rent, much less a crazy big mortgage.
Is Blackstone posting a fire in price. sale on one home just to force other homes to drop dramatically in price. Could it be that they are posting one home for sale through one of their holdings and picking up the others by way of another holding? Could they be diminishing the market for their own purpose?
Another way to think of it is that corporations funded the building of these homes. And when they crash you will get a good deal on the home and the lose will be absorbed by the corporation not you the homeowner if you tried to build. So there is good and bad with cooperates in real estate.
Nearly 2 years, never rented, just sat there empty. No wonder there is a housing crisis / homelessness mess there. Hope things get corrected, but feel for the private owners that will get into a negative equity situation. That is not a good position to be in.
just sold a property at a bit of a loss that i flipped but now im waiting.. and waiting.. til this bottoms out more and ill buy in flip and resell. all about timing.
The name of the (80/20)^2 rule is referred to as the "Pareto Principle squared" or the "4/64 rule". Because of how slow sales and comping works it doesn't take many homes selling at a reduced rate to effect the homes in an entire neighborhood. Compound that with iBuyers and institutional investors with builders needing to maintain their core construction workers at reduced margins and the 4/64 rule drives neighborhood prices quickly. Arbitrage opportunities may appear.
