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The Real Housing Crisis is Not What You Think

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In this episode we talk about how the real housing crisis is not what everyone expects. Almost everybody is looking for a repeat of the great financial crisis. The only problem is that if that's what most people expect, it isn't going to happen. In fact, the real problem is much worse.
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Опубликовано:

11 июл 2021

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Комментарии : 765

@joe7665 3 года назад

This is just like monopoly right at the end of the game where every move you make you have to give a lot of money to the person who has all the money...

@justinwebb2214 3 года назад

What a excellent & depressing analogy lol

@akcustom7838 3 года назад

And unfortunately the American people are not the big players, we are the ones always paying or glad when you go to jail so you don't have to pay every move hahaha

@joe7665 3 года назад

@@justinwebb2214 It is sad but seems very true unfortunately.

@joe7665 3 года назад

@@akcustom7838 lol so funny! people would rather go to jail because thats the better option

@1fast72nova 3 года назад

Wow. What an analogy

@edwardmclaughlin7935 3 года назад

"...by 2030, you will live wherever we choose to allocate you, and you would be best advised to be seen to be happy"

@moninchow 3 года назад

@infoslinger nobody is going to do anything about it

@the_expidition427 3 года назад

@@moninchow are you?

@DemonAbyss10 3 года назад

I imagine the federal fucks acting just like the combine from half-life.

@deegee2920 3 года назад

Now shut up and get in your drawer!

@pureblood_gg57 3 года назад

@@moninchow found the nobody ☝🏻

@jesperhallgren1411 3 года назад

I think the fact withing the bitcoin universe algorithm replaces the functions of (the government)is actually pretty cool.

@arvidcarlstedt2252 3 года назад

Cryptographical solution's might with great propriety be introduced into academies as the means of giving tone to the most important of the powers of the mind

@casperwisell3872 3 года назад

Investing in crypto currency now should be in every wise individuals list, in 2 to 3 years time, you will be estactic with the decision you made today

@marwanearnaud3781 3 года назад

I got 80% of my total portfolio in Bitcoin and it has been great Returns

@paoloconti8972 3 года назад

I wanted to trade crypto but got confused by the fluctuation in price.

@user-gf6ct9cg9s 3 года назад

@@paoloconti8972 That won't bother you if you trade with a professional like Jake Matthew

@beebee4334 3 года назад

Minute 9:00 Is one of the most important points of this video, or any video on this topic. Ask around and you’ll find that unknowing homeowners are often selling to institutions and corporate investors without TRULY understating the long term implications of doing so.

@StudioDesSages 3 года назад

Is it weird that I love the way he angrily explains economics? Great channel, man. Subbed 👍

@StudioDesSages 3 года назад

@@erachampions For a second I read “engaged” as “enraged” and was confused 😂

@chrishall8636 3 года назад

Economics is not well understood by many and it's frustrating. Then you have the ivory tower elites who do understand economics or should understand economics and act as if they don't. It's totally frustrating ending up wondering "are they evil or stupid?"

@StudioDesSages 3 года назад

@@chrishall8636 My money’s on evil, personally.

@1m2a3t4t5 3 года назад

Its incredibly frustrating, whats not to be upset about

@shanagries6457 3 года назад

Well its angering! Lol

@BatmanBoss 3 года назад

The Fed is buying mortgage backed securities helping run up prices of homes which is making houses cheaper lol

@HeresyFinancial 3 года назад

Lunacy

@aaz1992 3 года назад

Logicc too thicc

@ArkOmen1 3 года назад

Hey! You're learning Orwellian double speak!

@CD-vb9fi 3 года назад

Might as well just say they are screwing you for your pleasure.

@concernedcitizen780 3 года назад

Lowering interest rates actually raises house prices. What were they thinking? You want to lower house prices up the interest rates.

@quixomega 3 года назад

The situation described in this video is exactly what happened in the housing market in Toronto, ON, Canada. We didn't see a drop in housing prices in 2008 and the prices have just gone up and up since then. As a result, I can see this happening in America too. You're just 10 years behind the trend I'm seeing here.

@akcustom7838 3 года назад

We are watching the Overton Window unfold right in front of us. And everyone is falling for it. Its sad to see our Country go down the tubes.

@btchhopperou812 3 года назад

I do like your optimism by saying 'going'... But It's likely a safe bet that went down those tubes a good while back. A shame either way. BIG changes occurred, occurring and about to occur!

@robertmatthews2009 3 года назад

No one promised the United States would last forever.

@btchhopperou812 3 года назад

@@robertmatthews2009 Fair point made. Although it made it through puberty, I'd have to say on this 'scale', DC has been an abusive spouse thats bet was just called by the brother-in-law that just finished serving a 20yr. sentence for assault

@joncarbone 3 года назад

Federal Government pulled the levers.

@jerrypeukert5732 3 года назад

The world unfortunately, imagine what it will be like in 1000 years

@selfovercome4161 3 года назад

The federal reserve owns the investment companies.

@Faces189 3 года назад

You definitely nailed it, They definitely switching hands in buying and selling bonds. The two hands, in the same body. I just don't know why the masses, can't get it. By, the way thank's for getting me fired up.

@jmitterii2 3 года назад

The investment companies own the Fed. Fed is just a cartel of bankers with some sprinkling of governmental appointed positions... to give it the flair as a quasi governmental entity.

@freddyrosenberg9288 3 года назад

@@jmitterii2 I wish more people in the USA knew this basic truth. It is the bedrock of our economy.

@mccartneystuart 3 года назад

They print the money, loan it to themselves at 0% and will never default on these loans regardless of what happens and all the while have the tax payers pay for it all. Funny they don't let you know the major stock holders of the fed or these major investment/equity firms, I'm sure you'll find the same names if one could.

@iamjustsaying4787 3 года назад

The Federal Reserve owns everything and everyone.

@DayTripperLennon 3 года назад

“Buy land, they aren't making it anymore.” - Mark Twain.

@kareemmance5845 3 года назад

Bill Gates, "hold my beer."

@emilebichelberger7590 3 года назад

This made me laugh

@beautifulblessings3418 2 года назад

That’s funny I like that 😅

@PaigeNugent 3 года назад

Here's what we did We sold our house and purchased a travel trailer. We live in the trailer in the woods. No rent. No house.

@h2w25 3 года назад

Nice, You sold your appreciating cash machine for a depreciating money pit

@duncano74 3 года назад

@@h2w25 so judgey. Also what she did is reduce a liability ahead of a likely period of housing deflation for a low cost asset that puts a roof over her head and will probably appreciate in value during a housing crisis

@tyjameson7404 3 года назад

At least it’s paid off!!😡

@duckblast 3 года назад

Do you have to pay property taxes on that sort of thing? Or no? If not that's kind of awesome.

@brianpereira7483 3 года назад

@@duckblast no property tax

@-Nab- 3 года назад

It’s really sad what’s happening to society. Brilliant explanation Joe, as usual!

@fudogwhisperer3590 3 года назад

You’re forgetting about the foreclosure moratorium ending and those houses flooding the market.

@matthewsimon9503 3 года назад

Not to mention the eviction moratorium

@doctoruttley 3 года назад

Yep

@jon3615 3 года назад

They will only be foreclosed on if they are upside down. I’m guessing the vast majority of those in forbearance still have equity in there home and will sell at a high price instead of being foreclosed on. They still lose their home but walk away with some cash.

@unitedwestand5602 3 года назад

@@jon3615 even if the supply spikes all at once?????

@jonantle4443 3 года назад

If It’s lifted…would not surprise me if it was kept in place permanently

@genericusernaization 3 года назад

Interesting argument but highly speculative. Buyer demand is weak despite lower mortgage rates is bearish but high rental demand will drive institutional buying. The whole argument is based on the fact that you think institutions will be able to purchase and own millions of homes "forever". Inventory would easily spike by 1 million to get back to pre covid levels. 1 million*250,000 = $250B. Then they have to maintain that level of buying as more and more individual buyers get priced out. You're talking about Trillions of dollars just to maintain home prices. If we want them to go up they have to spend more than that. You're predicting the institutional investors to invest more than 5% of their total total assets (world wide) on a rolling yearly basis to hold up the entire housing market. If we're already flattening out with current prices, buyer demand will only get lower as prices go up and institutional investors will be sitting on a pyramid scheme that requires them to continuously increase their own position to hold up the asset price. If they could do this, why would the stock market EVER crash? I think they'd rather watch the housing market crash and buy it up much lower and leaving the little guys who're speculating at all time highs holding the bag just like they do in the stock market.

@WildThingss 3 года назад

We've got a live one, folks 🧠📈

@KungFuMuster 3 года назад

Right. Additionally the cost of maintaining real-estate properties (taxes, insurance, maintenance) will constantly eat away the profits

@Nowhere-from 3 года назад

Impressive level of thought of yours, yet the fed has clearly shown to be capable of unlimited money printing, the graphic shown here is very popular in these kind of channels. Yes, trillions of dollars...and beyond. Many people ( especially economists and doomsayers) have expected the fed to stop it and the end of the world. The 2008 crisis is not even the best example! The best example just happened last year! The fed claims to do what it does to support job opportunities and prosperity in general. But the ones who really benefit are the rich and their corporations or small businesses by getting cheap loans -actually free loans by now....for freeloaders- and predictable stock market. All of this is possible by keeping the population distracted with junk news and cheap-stupid-vulgar entertainment in the homeland, and by the patience of the rest of the world abroad to keep taking USA dollars. China is fighting to stop this scam, but the USA is very busy counterattacking, to the point of slandering, spreading lies and plotting to crash its industry by blocking sales of chips to them. This is a long story that nobody knows how it will end.

@richardpowell1389 3 года назад

First the general public has to be aware that institutions are buying homes. Then they have to learn about the bond market, interest rates, QE, bailouts, monetary policy, who benefits. Then, enough people have to figure out the game and attempt to vote for better policy makers. When that doesn't help they have to try and fix democracy, so government stops enriching the aristocracy. This is impossible now. Housing will only go up, because in the future you will own nothing and be happy.

@genericusernaization 3 года назад

The Fed lowering interest further or printing more does not create any more productivity. People have to start working and making things otherwise supply chains will continue to dry up and drive up inflation. Inflation and depreciating USD is a threat to our national security and standing as a reserve currency holder. They will have to pause printing to control inflation. That the current plan.

@niknak523 3 года назад

This video was outstanding by the way, Facts per minute A+, Relevancy A+, Accuracy A+

@VisionClearly 3 года назад

Absolutely!!

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

First youtuber I have heard that truly understand the complete picture in the housing market. Judging by a lot of the comments I think many people don't get what he is saying.

@niknak523 3 года назад

@@chrisnelson9957 changing hearts and minds one you tube video at a time…lol

@sevencostanza3931 3 года назад

@@chrisnelson9957 At the end the guy mentions buying shares in Roofstock & 2 other companies. Look these companies up, these are companies that buy up houses & rents them. He is on both sides then ?!?!?

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

@@sevencostanza3931 No he's only on 1 side still. The housing market is not falling any time soon. He's long housing

@finance5186 3 года назад

Dude you CRUSH it. Such an important perspective thanks for sharing.

@ibrahimn22 3 года назад

Very well explained. Slavery wast abolished the rich just made everyone slaves

@yoniziv 3 года назад

This is the best channel since "The fed observer" which unfortunately mysteriously disappeared. Happy to finally find someone who really bring valuable information. Thank you!

@joelacross6977 3 года назад

Mr Brown, you continue to impress me

@lukemckee9772 3 года назад

In Australia we have started running the same play book and beating the fed at buying our own dept. Sydney's house prices have been going up by over 8kaud per week this year and over 5kaud per week in Melbourne.... you gotta wonder who can save and keep up with a deposit at that rate... yet the rba sees no effect from its policies

@jdf018 3 года назад

Canada Too. I have to look but I bet I we look at the G7 it is the same story.

@dranzacspartan8002 3 года назад

So you're best living in Adelaide, Perth or Hobart.

@renstein8210 3 года назад

How are the eviction moratoriums affecting all this? The theory I've heard is that it is designed to punish small-time landlords, while the large property owning corporations can withstand the issues caused by it.

@kyshac81 3 года назад

You are the ONLY person who has been able to articulate what the hell is going on. Other people have hinted at it, but they don’t know how to explain it.

@xokelis0015 3 года назад

I think you're missing something Heresy. Those investors with their deep pockets are still subject to supply and demand - the supply of renters to be more precise. They still have to make rents affordable or families will start moving in 2-3 per house in order to be able to split the rent since they can't afford to rent a home on their own, which will put downward pressure on rent prices due to overwhelming housing supply. On top of that these institutions will have to maintain and pay taxes on those properties which means they can't afford to let them just sit empty, so sooner or later they'll have to lower prices to get people to rent them. The problem you're describing is self correcting, so long as we don't go down the road to serfdom and become socialists that is. Anyway, great videos. Cheers!

@Supatrader 3 года назад

This is the path to nationalizing everything. Phase 1: push out the individual and replace with big corporations who have enough money to take over. Phase 2: keep sucking the money out of the big corps by ratcheting up taxes. Phase 3: After continuously increasing the taxes on the corps, forcing the corps to pass the buck down to the renter in order to simply stay in business, the govt declares that these corps are charging too much, profiteer, and oppress the renters, which is good enough basis for the government to step in take over to stop the oppression. Neo-Feudalism

@williethewombat6753 3 года назад

@@Supatrader "Neo-Feudalism" Exactly.Over 20 years ago when I was naive and ignorant but intent to find the driver of market I relatively quickly realized where the monetary system would lead us...to a place I called Neo-Feudalism. Very quickly it became apparent that this was an INTENTIONAL objective of those that control the monetary system. Of course when I presented this to my friends and family I was laughed at or at best ignored. 20+ years later, here we are on the cusp of Neo-Feudalism.

@iwiffitthitotonacc4673 3 года назад

We could accelerate this self-correction process by enacting bopælspligt, which is a law where a home you own cannot be unoccupied for more than a few months of the year. If you can't meet that simple requirement, the government forces you to put it up for sale. However, in the case of the U.S., forced reselling might be too much, so upping the taxes a few percent for said home for failing to meet the simple duty is probably enough of an incentive. This ensures that homes are affordable in general.

@route66paul 3 года назад

That may be true, but now the corporate buyers are buying single family homes, and can keep the renters from overfilling the home. I think there will be many people than are single and own a home, will rent rooms out(under the table). We have seen people enclose front and rear porches and turn them into bedrooms to rent to a couple or single mom and child. The garages are already being lived in by families, many homes already have 3 families living in them.

@danamcwhite 3 года назад

@@Supatrader all your doing is speculation. Economists and internet economists are just like weatherman. And there track record proves it.

@therynothedyno 3 года назад

Interesting take, Joe. I like the perspective about looking at what the smart money is doing. Have you thought about doing a video (or perhaps you have already done one) talking about your current portfolio allocation percentages?

@CaseyBurnsInvesting 3 года назад

If lowering housing costs means increasing the ability to service debt they’re doing a great job. In every other way they’re doing a horrible job.

@FrankRizzo401 3 года назад

Great point. Most second tier U.S cities have the cheapest price to income ratios in the world. The commonwealth countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand have much higher price to income ratios.

@schumanhuman 3 года назад

It's like a see-saw. Lower interest rates raise capitalised land prices but lower debt service costs and vice versa. All you can really do is tweak the bubble with monetary policy.

@schumanhuman 3 года назад

The worst thing they can say is, we need to help the poor buy housing and extend credit or housing subsidies, it helps a few in the short term but ultimately it just increases prices and increases default risks ala sub primes.

@schumanhuman 3 года назад

@SAND BLAST The Democrats and Republicans are only superficially different on economic policy, I follow the 18 year land price cycle to gauge what happens next, who is nominally elected is in most cases secondary. That said as the cycle hints at a strong boom to follow, especially if the infrastructure package is passed the Dems should do well in 2024, but as the next GFC should be underway by around 2026/7 the Republicans have a good chance for 2028.

@raul298 3 года назад

Despite the great logic and facts, i also appreciate the great audio - making it that much easier. Why do so many economic experts have such terrible audio quality?

@HeresyFinancial 3 года назад

I’m using a $50 mic so it’s not because they can’t afford it

@kokoleka808 3 года назад

Thanks for bringing rational thinking to this crazy housing market.

@Twystedwhizard 3 года назад

This is, without a doubt, the best financial channel I've seen. You deserve a million+ subscribers. I wish more people listened to you.

@kimba527 3 года назад

I have been preaching this for months,....THANK YOU!!!

@kyshac81 3 года назад

I have also.

@gabrielmartinez2455 3 года назад

The American dream is dead. We r turning into a banana republic

@asianbodyart 3 года назад

waht does banana republic mean? rome?

@gabrielmartinez2455 3 года назад

@@asianbodyart third world country

@seanm3226 3 года назад

The American Dream is dead for YOU. Speak only for yourself.

@rickesselment1540 3 года назад

This is my favourite channel for straight goods, well explained on financial topics that matter. I told my wife you are my fav RU-vid prof.

@mntwst 3 года назад

Your forgetting the Millions of REO (bank foreclosures) not on the market

@garyblack8717 3 года назад

You mean the millions of new permanent renters who will never again be able to own a home (or at least not for a decade)? Wonder how many of them just recently got back into the buyer market after losing their homes in 2008?

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

Your forgetting that he said People have to live somewhere and there are not enough homes so it is "Net Neutral". If they get foreclosed on (which they won't because they have equity and can add the balance to the back of their loan) the have to rent further driving up the rental prices and number of homes that flip from owner to investor. It is not 2008 when there was a glut of homes and foreclosures had nowhere to go.

@jopalolive 3 года назад

The banksters warehoused the foreclosures after 08' and it took many years for them to sell that accumulated inventory.

@EastCoastReefer 3 года назад

People in my neighborhood are putting their houses up for sale like never before as if they’re trying to beat the crash.

@ReidRed1 3 года назад

Exactly what ive been thinking over the last couple weeks

@ronbridges3933 3 года назад

Remember those guys delivering boxes of “ballots” at 4am on Nov 4th ?

@notmyrealname1437 3 года назад

Lincoln Institute for Land Policy used to publish a spreadsheet workbook of house prices in 46 metro areas. The price was broken down by land value and depreciated structure value. The problem is that land value on coastal markets exceeds structure value. What has happened historically is that when land prices get to high new cities in low land cost areas start growing.

@jeffmbateman 3 года назад

Good breakdown. Even my with my limited knowledge on the subject, I understood.

@adamtedder1012 3 года назад

I wouldn't sell. Then you can't find a new one. The investment firms are buying up the houses you might become a permanent renter. If you got a house keep the house. If you want another buy another and rent the first one out.

@BMR3 2 года назад

Great video, you hit the nail on the head & perfectly described my situation trying to buy my first home.

@brandonklosterman9880 3 года назад

Joe thank you for being one of the few channels that actually look at the data and not just screaming "2008 again!". I love how you mentioned we haven't built for 10 years. Been drooling looking at the FRED housing starts chart. That's the only chart you need to look at to determine we are nowhere near a bubble. Underbuilt and largest demographic ever (millennials) in prime home buying years will keep this market chugging along for awhile. Average home prices in gold is historically cheap right now. The country of renters is an aspect I haven't thought about. Great channel. Thank you.

@McDadden 3 года назад

This is the scenario that scares me the most as a current renter. Im having to wait out the current prices in hopes I can try again later. Everyday people are just completely priced out of the market.

@hurrikanegaming4410 3 года назад

These companies need to be outlawed from buying existing homes. Let them provide new homes.

@Newlinjim 3 года назад

That would defeat the business model of driving margins higher.

@schanzwa 3 года назад

In Amsterdam they are now busy with a law that you must live in the house that you buy. Should have done that decades ago!

@johngifford7725 3 года назад

The American dream is dead. They killed it. They own the law makers, and the idiots that swore an oath to defend the constitution but don't know to distinguish it from laws that are unconditional.

@gregdecker4741 3 года назад

i love how he spends a good portion of the video explaining how bad real estate investors are for the average american home-buyer, then ends the video with an ad telling people to go become a real estate investor

@r987p 3 года назад

People act like we have been having forclosures the last year and a half, plus 10 million people on moratorium. Fixing to be a lot of rentals and forclosures on the market

@joe7665 3 года назад

Right! he didn't seem to touch on that hot button at all!

@johnl.7754 3 года назад

also a lot of boomers getting very old

@Newlinjim 3 года назад

@@johnl.7754 yes the supply will have to be in the form of assisted living centers.

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

The key thing he said that addresses all the people clamoring about forbearance cliff and moratorium is that you have to live somewhere, It is net neutral. There are not enough rentals and there are not enough owner ocuppied homes. The forebearance cliff is a fallacy anyway because people can add the balance to the back of their mortgage with no penalty, and their homes have gone up in value. Why would you walk from equity when you can just not have paid the bill for a year and then start making payments now? And if they really haven't saved a dime and can't pay then they have to rent and that drives up rental prices even more (net neutral). And as for the moratorium, those people still have to rent somewhere. They don't just exit the housing market. So there is fixing to be higher rents and housing prices.

@joe7665 3 года назад

@@chrisnelson9957 But we didn't have a housing crisis before covid? But now people can work remote they are leaving their apartments in the big cites for cheaper living in other states but getting paid that big city money! I think that's the biggest cause of this problem.

@samjohnson5044 3 года назад

I've read in the past that another cause for high housing prices is draconian zoning ordinances. Any truth to that, and to what extent?

@nonenone5387 3 года назад

It's true to a certain extent but a good way to tell if that is true look at the size of the region being high. If it's one city, zoning if it's the entire planet, central banks.

@fwefhwe4232 3 года назад

google for mumbai fsi slums video As an Indian, I am surprised that san francisco has similar restrictions on building tall buildings, leading to slums in skid row as well.

@saddle8bag 3 года назад

Man, you are good. No BS and to the point. I wish I could think as fluently.

@moneyminder01 3 года назад

Most accurate housing market analysis I've seen.

@anthonysiebenthaler682 3 года назад

People could always burnthemdown, if a megacorp starts buying homes in your neighbourhood

@IC-lz3of 3 года назад

That would push house prices even higher. No, governments need to implement legislation that prevents the use of residential properties as Investments.

@user-fm4db6cq7g 3 года назад

@@IC-lz3of prevent larger investment companies from owning residential. Not smaller owners/investors

@samjohnson5044 3 года назад

Should we be concerned about the dystopia Janet Yellin created? Nah, let's dive in.

@janetpelletier1238 3 года назад

I doubt this started with Yellen. Willing participant - yes but not creator.

@freddyrosenberg9288 3 года назад

@@janetpelletier1238 Yellen is just a government appointed spokesperson. The real policy decisions are made at the FOMC

@vvolfflovv 3 года назад

I don't know the dif state laws but here in Canada rents can be pretty much locked in on older buildings. That said, rent has already doubled in the last 5 years.

@joebuttas26 3 года назад

These people said they don't want to do battle with O'Keefe. It's just easier to delete the piece. They know O'Keefe won't back down now. This guy is a boss! Keep doing what your doing.

@henrylocker9558 3 года назад

Second (nvm first, I’m new to the channel and I love it, keep up the hard work! ◡̈)

@gecko2000405 3 года назад

Excellent video. There is just one problem. Interest rates can't go down much more. The cure for high prices is generally high prices.

@steveholmes161 2 года назад

Landlords are receiving a 6% return on their housing investment. Add to that, a 4% appreciation on the property and you have a 10% return! Compare that to Treasuries, 30 year or Municipal Bonds and you have your answer as to why investors are buying up houses. You sir are spot on! Good video.

@sixfigurefinance8329 3 года назад

Great channel! Thanks man!

@paulthebuilder86 3 года назад

Blown away with your insightful well spoken observations!!!!!!

@ThatGuyFromThatThing360 3 года назад

The ivory tower elites lol gets me everytime

@2DanTube 3 года назад

What we need the mortgage banks to offer are 30 - 40 - 50 - and - 60 year fixed rates. Thus the banks make up on the lower rates - builders more likely to risk build inventory. In the Atlanta market - about 16,000 new families flock to the recession-proof state - but no inventory for them - since 2008 most builders are scared to build inventory.

@thecastlerealtychannel4357 3 года назад

In California they passed SB 1079, if you're not familiar. Look it up, it'll help your thesis.

@backflipsaresweet 3 года назад

This makes me feel way better about buying a house at the high end of what we planned for 10% more. It's a house we could live in forever and we can afford it, so no matter what happens to the price we're locked in with our payments and good with them

@natron8314 3 года назад

My family built homes my entire childhood. You can build 80% of your own home for half the price. If you live in an area loaded with ordinances to prevent you then move.

@Lcab-bh3wx 2 года назад

Yes sir. You can in good State like Pennsylvania, just do it don't be afraid 😟. ...

@relaxjaxx4167 3 года назад

Thank you!

@BangMaster96 3 года назад

So let me get this straight, Builders are waiting for construction material prices to go down. Home Buyers are waiting for Housing prices to go down. Institutions are buying up whatever Homes are currently available in the market, thus reducing its supply. Fed wants to keep interest rates low to avoid a market correction and a lot of people going bankrupt, thus allowing institutional buyers to buy even more Homes and reducing the supply even more. A lot of Home owners are selling their Homes because they see the value of their Home going up, and are either renting or buying another Home. Great to know that the future of our kids and grandkids is completely f*cked.

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

It's a 5 year problem not a 20 year problem. Housing stocks will ramp up. 3D printed homes will lower costs and they'll over build and we'll rinse and repeat.

@gabem6362 3 года назад

Love your channel man ,always sharing ty for your work

@benth162 3 года назад

Here in San Diego investors are buying up property, clearing it and then building apartment complexes on the land. There are more than a thousand such rentals going up in the city and around the county. Renters or Condo buyers will pay far more for those accommodations per month than would a home buyer because corporations building those units need a higher income from those units because they must pay their Stake and Stock holders, their quarterly dividends. There is another problem though; Instead of just putting your home on the market, they are actually selling homes at auction which will always cost the purchaser more because of the emotions involved which are being manipulated during the process by Real Estate agents because they can make more money on that 6%. Real Estate has turned into a racket and they all shrug their shoulders while saying, "what us", "we're just selling a home" when they are actually instrumental in moving home prices into the stratosphere !!!

@Jayjs20 3 года назад

Are you predicting the downfall of civilization through the current state of the housing market pushed to new extremes through investor interference, then turn around and promote an app that benefits would-be housing investors?

@randallmontes1736 3 года назад

you did it again. your channel is phenomenal

@SaMiFarr 3 года назад

Wow! Quite a video and very timely. Thank you for your high-quality analysis.

@HeresyFinancial 3 года назад

Glad you enjoyed it Samifarr

@thetruthalwaysscary 3 года назад

4:39 cash buyers also called investors....except of those that are relocating now due to covid, high taxes or early retirement (covid triggered a lot of these) that are also cash buyers and they are huge amount of them in places like Florida and Texas. Florida has 1,000 people moving daily just from California now and about 400-500 from New York...not to mention other states. The majority of people bidding are people that buy to live in, not for speculation and they are NOT called investors. Crisis in CA and NY has a great possibilities, less likely in FL and TX. . When companies close in CA/NY and they move to FL because of way lower taxes it is a natural stimulus in the economy that raising prices by itself. Its all about location and one shoe does not fits all. I got a friend (FL) who was going to buy a house last September...he got an advice to wait ...well the 330,000 house went to 420,000 ...such a house in CA cost over a million. Guess what he is going from house to townhouse and then he will go to condo since he will be able to afford less and less. Price drop? Let me see...lumber went up 380% so in the near future home prices will drop....NOT! The USA is huge and states by states the issue can be extremely different. -- one more thing about real estate prices, the borders are closed for 1.5 years. There are 6.5 million homes sells in the USA yearly 10% for foreigners. When borders re open there will be a rush of foreign cash buyers a super conservative estimates of 500,000 buyers can be all the way to 1 million....yep that will push prices down also...NOT! / of course I am only 23 years in real estate so my ideas based on air/ .

@youngseanconnery8577 3 года назад

Absolutely love your channel…keep up the good work!

@18Bees 3 года назад

The grind of Property taxes.

@nillynush4899 3 года назад

property taxes = eternal renting. Don't know why previous generations screwed us with this.

@18Bees 3 года назад

@@nillynush4899 The saddest story I heard was from a friend who's grandfather had lived in a cabin near a lake for 60+ years. Over time the property taxes became so crushing he was forced to sell in his final years. To me this is sickening.

@mikeraz594 3 года назад

and condo fees

@dgreene2701 3 года назад

Great analysis

@dominusnostrum 3 года назад

Good argument, but I have to say I disagree. 1 rents cannot rise above what people can afford. 2 when faced with high and fast growing inflation the fed will be forced to raise interest rates regardless of the fact it will drive highly indebted households into bankruptcy. 3 houses cost a lot more than they cost to make even allowing for higher material and labour costs. 4 public sentiment is for house prices to fall

@junkfoodisgood69 3 года назад

I got my house at the end of May and I can't believe I got so lucky. People don't understand that prices aren't going back down.

@trixy8669 3 года назад

I would have thought housing was more insulated from supply disruptions since most of the supplies are domestic. Weird

@lestermagee4288 3 года назад

Love the content Joe.

@Dan-sc7us 3 года назад

Excellent insights, Joe! This is one of your most helpful presentations (for me)!

@rider9187 3 года назад

Here in Canada we have a rent raise limit. It’s below inflation. So I’m just better no move I guess.

@willlin3017 3 года назад

Yes, but the limit is for the people who have been living in that same apartment for years. The rent would be super high for the new people that just move in!

@sandermez3856 3 года назад

@@willlin3017 exactly what he said. He better no move. Which seriously hurts your job prospects and locks you in life... Also, many landlords find creative ways to GET you to move. Legally or illegally...

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

Rent controls never work. Great Freakanomics podcast on that.

@robertscharfe9879 3 года назад

Well explain

@Greasyspleen 3 года назад

I still say it's a bubble because the people who say it's a bad time to buy can't afford to anyway. They simply aren't part of the market. The market is almost entirely investors buying and selling to and from each other.

@ClutchMaster14 3 года назад

And any slight dip there will be a selloff. Investors will always be investors.

@1m2a3t4t5 3 года назад

How? hows it investors when theres no money to be made? Investors buy underpriced not over. I believe its moronic citizens that have no concept of the value of property or money lured in by low interest rates.

@j3ffn4v4rr0 3 года назад

@@1m2a3t4t5 My thinking exactly. Yes, it's a bubble...but to smart folks that means it's a bad time to buy, by definition. I'm just gonna be a little more generous and replace the word "investors" with "speculators" instead of "moronic citizens"

@1m2a3t4t5 3 года назад

@@j3ffn4v4rr0 Theyre not speculating anything. Theyre just clueless and see low rates. Everyone in person who I mention it being a bad time to buy just says its a great time because rates are so low. Moronic, people who could care less about debt or much regard for their financial future.

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

Your comment and all the comments below are basically the chart he showed with the 64% of people saying it is a bad time to buy and waiting. You might be right about it being investors selling to investors but you missed a very crucial point. THERE ARE NOTE ENOUGH HOMES (Period full stop). A bubble is when demand can evaporate in thin air. People have to live somewhere. 2007 people had 2 and 3 vacant homes. You couldn't rent them for the mortgage payment. Fast forward and they didn't build homes for 10 years, millennials are the biggest generation yet, and we turned a small (but important) part of the housing market in to hotels (Air Bnb). If there was a glut of rentals then the demand could shift from owner to rental, but there isn't. If you want to see a bubble look to Crypto. Most all the people that think housing is a bubble love crypto. But Crypto has all the makings. It could evaporate instantly. Everyone is exuberant about it and the only reason people are in it is because they think they can sell it for more (no dividend, no rental income, no intrinsic value)

@crafty_ostrich-minecraft8427 3 года назад

Also one of the main reasons houses are sold is that the owner pass away or move into assisted living/nursing home and then the houses are sold. So there are situations that do not fit this video's description. Due to birth control and abortion we live in a very elderly society and if it were not for immigration we would have a unsustainable birth rate. Having an elderly society is deflationary and creates downward price pressures due to large numbers of houses coming on the market. With protections to prevent foreclosures ending much more supply will come onto the market. Some people see these changes coming and are not buying into the current bubble because in a year or two prices will likely be much lower.

@richardpowell1389 3 года назад

Great video. One of the best in sea of great videos. Excellent work Joe.

@johncorson6599 3 года назад

Great content! Very informative ... thx

@mitchellphillips2800 3 года назад

Question, since inflation is going up, it is directly correlating to home prices. Since you said prices will continue to go up, basically forever or high enough to where people can’t afford to purchase, Do you expect inflation to keep going up during those times as well?

@sayitaintso5267 3 года назад

Rents have already gone through the roof!!!

@chrism9017 3 года назад

Chilling. And I’m not easily chilled.

@shammuk02 3 года назад

Yah but a investor that owns 100 homes can sell 99 of those homes and not buy one single home

@Newlinjim 3 года назад

Nobody is having that conversation though….

@TikeMyson69 3 года назад

Yeah, why is he ignoring that?

@chrisnelson9957 3 года назад

There aren't enough rentals. So if an investor sells 99 homes and they are all bought owner occupied (that's a massive If) then there is an even bigger shortage in rental units that will drive rents up. When rents get driven up it causes money to flow to housing for rentals which will take away from owner occupied Or building homes/apt. Until there is a large enough supply of homes (housing stock) this problem will remain.

@joni1405 3 года назад

Since December we've had the three highest housing start months since 2006. I don't know why you would assume that supply isn't coming and it will take "decades" for housing to stabilize when the first half of 2020 has had the highest housing start numbers in 15 years. That seems to indicate a ton of supply will hit the market in a few months. The article you listed is extremely misleading. The "decline" in starts it references was a decline from 1.7 million units (the most in 15 years) to 1.517 million (the seventh highest monthly start number in 15 years). So the "decline" in starts is a decline to a number that is still in the top ten highest months in a decade and a half. There have been like 10 million housing starts since December, not counting whatever June's numbers are. That's a large number and absolutely will start to impact prices in a few months when all that supply starts hitting market

@28gbb 3 года назад

this guy is exactly correct and it is what I have been saying. Small minded people look to 2008 because that is all they know. Students of history know better. Stagflation is coming. Prices are permanently higher now.

@rockinbobokkin7831 3 года назад

Well, frankly, there's only a crisis to buy homes if you intend to live in or near a city. If you'd like rural property, there is fat amounts. So, idk .....get into gardening I guess.

@IIDASHII 3 года назад

Everything you said here is why I have been telling all of my friends to buy NOW if they can afford it, and I put my money where my mouth is and bought another home so I can move out of my duplex and rent the whole thing out. People just don't get it. Affordability is NOT going to get better over time. There is nothing in sight that can sate the demand that we currently have, and interest rates are only going to go up. NOW IS THE TIME!

@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario 3 года назад

Amazing video :) I really liked your explanation of what is, and what is not, a bubble.

@TheWisdom3 3 года назад

Same happening here in the Netherlands.

@tyjameson7404 3 года назад

Damn!! Amazing video Joe!!! Thank you!!!👍🏼🙌🏽🙏🏼✅💪🏽

@HeresyFinancial 3 года назад

Thanks Ty

@donkalzone6671 3 года назад

Soo, what is your solution? It looks to me that without an artifical empowerment of normal citizens to become homeowners this won't change. But wouldn't giving normal citizens an advantage in this housing market, which would be a disadvantage to institutional investors, considered socialism, Communism or what ever? And even if we had a free-market (and not those manipulations through the fed etc), the basic strategy of big investors wouldnt really change.

@curtissharris8914 3 года назад

Lots of things can do. Change Tax policy for investor's and flippers in primary markets, easier entitlement process, less restrictive zoning laws > higher density and so forth.

@k0zzu21 3 года назад

The solution is to let the interest rates float. When we have the market decide the interest rates, it would make speculation unprofitable, which would leave the houses for the people who actually need them. With less demand, the prices would fall, while also giving a better return on savings. Eventually people could either save for an own house or service the much lower debt.

@curtissharris8914 3 года назад

Rates and home prices not conclusive even if so zero evidence it would ameliorate the impact of flippers and investors or empty houses. Here is a search for article re rates and prices> investfourmore interest-rates-housing-prices - Do high interest rates cause housing prices to drop?

@k0zzu21 3 года назад

@@curtissharris8914 It's just the basic supply and demand. To buy a house, you need currency. You can either pay with cash or borrow. When the price of money goes up (interest rate), the demand for borrowing money at the higher price is lower, which results in less borrowing. The people with the most leverage are the speculators and institutional investors, since regular home buyers cannot lever up in the same manner. This means they must deleverage or get margin called and that will bring more housing supply back to the market. Thus, higher interest rates will benefit the average home buyers and hinder speculators.

@marcsyrene3781 3 года назад

@@Mekkablood it's not as easy as it sounds. Most housing providers (landlords) are mom and pops like me who have worked hard to make that investment and put allot of sweat equity in to that investment and keep up the property, manage the tenants, pay the taxes and insurance ect.. It takes years and years for this type of investing to come to fruition and it is not for the faint of heart or the careless.

@Donkeyearsa 3 года назад

Right now is the best time ever to sell rental properties. Pit the money into the stock market for a few years. Then when house prices go down with higher mortgages then buy with a smaller mortgage. What really shocks me is that the big time players are not selling some of their rental properties and using the tassels right off on other properties to take the tax hit.

@devonstjohn 3 года назад

Oh my God I have been saying the same thing for the past year. You are spot on with this video sir. I started noticing large numbers of homes being bought up in my area by Berkshire Hathaway and others over the last few years. I sold my home at the beginning of the year and I’m in this exact same place you describe. All of the rental homes in my area( ATL)are owned by institutional investors. Hardly any homes are rented by private homeowners anymore.(which does provide a small amount of supply year-by-year as they sell off their investments) The supply has dried up completely. If you sell your home today you will be at the mercy of renting a home from an institutional investor or you will have to go the apartment route. I would add to your video that I feel that the manipulation of price has also been contributed greatly by Zillow. The absolute fabrication of the Zestimate has fueled buyers to pay more and more for homes. Although I realize it holds no legal bearing to mortgage underwriting, it does play a psychological part however, when people are waiving appraisals or making insane offers. If your typical home appreciates at an average of 3 to 5% a year in a normal market, when you buy a home that is appreciated in value upwards of 20 or 30% you have just prepaid several years worth of appreciation. If the market were to turn south you would not be able to sell your home or even break even for several years assuming all other factors in the market are equal. This is one of the best channels I have come across. Keep up the great work Heresy Financial. I too am looking for that small window to take advantage of for a new home.