The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy | DW Business Special 

Rob did need to help direct him. It's a challenge, especially with the huge time lag of modern day comms.

This prof is a liar.

@@ltm9729 Putin is the liar.

@@ltm9729 If the prof is a liar, then you are a troll. Also, if the prof is not a liar, then you are a troll. ;-)

@Fletcher If you actually watched the video, you heard the prof emphasize "we don't know".

Yale School of Management ... You find his team on line

@@fabiocossa2420 thank you sir

🤣🤣

They're not the news anymore. More like reality TV. People will believe anything.

I think the American model is more focused on clicks = rating = making money, rather than taking the time to go in-depth for real understanding.

@@02markcal It's the difference between the news existing to inform viewers, and existing to get viewers to watch.

I was irritated by the host interrupting the professor continuously.

@@AirLancer I agree.

IMF is just the IMF, and he is a professor.

​@@jbbeiser983 the IMF is famous for wrong predictions

Most of the world leaders predicted that Russia should have collapsed last year well TAHDAH they are still up and going. Everything in Russia is cheap compared to other nations.

@@maritaschweizer1117 Honestly, it might not even be their fault necessarily! If they’re given false information, there is no way they can make accurate predictions, it’s impossible other than simply by accident! Edit: forgot to mention, while I will not outright condemn the IMF as I don’t know whether they did it by accident (provided false info and didn’t know) or on purpose (they did know it was false), I WILL say they are guilty of not making it clear to others that Russia hasn’t been filing new data. That is a very important caveat to any analysis and it is reckless and frankly at least incompetent (and perhaps outright malicious if they did know) that they didn’t make this clear to those relying on IMF analyses for making policy decisions!

@@maritaschweizer1117 the IMF has been proven to have better and less biased predictions that then others

💯

"Virtually"

It is shocking how frequently people take Russian and Chinese national statistics at face value. Then you look under the hood at energy prices or diesel consumption and see drastic differences that are incompatible with the official figures.

Buffoon

Yes. You basically only have to think about it when they themselves are saying that they are lying.

The praises in the top comments seem somunrealistic, yours looks like a first real comment. But about russia losing kn each barree, that just makes nk sense at all. 50 dollars is where USA fracking oil starts ewrning money, russia has oil like saudi arbia, it just flows out and they earn money on it way before US fracking. Why would ruasia sell oil at a loss? The discounts also were always just speculated on. No public contracts. And recent reports say its much less than the speculated 20-30 % tomparketprice.

@@jfjjdmsndnfdjsjmsnrnf6946 BECAUSE THEY MUST ??? Thinking things thru in NOT your forte...

@@jfjjdmsndnfdjsjmsnrnf6946 One of the most basic rules of business: you make the most money when you sell something you don't need to a buyer who needs it desperately - and conversely: if you desperately need to sell, you'll always get less than market value. Russia has been cut off from so many sources of income for the last year, while at the same time bearing huge costs of waging war - of course they need every penny they can get and have no choice other than accept any price they're offered.

You make a fair point, I wondered if it was due to the time limit? It was such an engaging and interesting conversation I wish we could’ve heard much more!

I’d agree but to cover everything this professor clearly could they’d need a podcast series. He’s doing the hard job of keeping things concise

@@MichaelJones-wj4mo Who wants it concise? I was hanging on every word too. Was irritated at every cutting off too. Why not give him all the time he needs and then release it in bits on the internet, so no one is intimidated by how long it takes and everyone can get the full scale of this important information. For prices have gone up a lot in most parts of Europe because of this war and we'd like to see and hear, that it's not in vain. That our passing on things is of true help to the Ukraine to hold out and push through eventually.

I second that request. It might be a bit of an echo chamber to exactly hear what I want to hear, but tell me more

yes Id like that too

I agree 😊

Russia is net producer of Food and Energy... Anything else Russia can get it cheap from China and India. This Prof is pathetic!

Agreed

I second that!

Third that

I'll eleventy twelve that.

They will not invite hin again.

Yes to this!

Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from Yale School of Management is also employed in Langley DC. We Lied, We Cheated, We Stole Germany independence!

You think that the western greedy capitalist are not buying Russian gas and oil-they are, indeed they are using other non-western state intermediaries, and cleaning the same oil and reselling it on to Europe for a tidy profit.... Russian gas and oil is been sold through other non western nations at market value... This professor is wholesale anti-Russian, not pro-economic analysis. By this time, everyone knows how Iran has always defeated western sanctions...

And yet, he gives discusses other numbers, also from Russia, that are also unconfirmed, yet likes to draw conclusions.... go figure.

Amazing that the endless sanctions have worked miracles for strengthening the Russian economy. Plus their debt to GDP is lower than all major economies.

​@@matteskew6768АГА , ОН ЭКС ПЕРДУН ЕЩЕ ТОТ

They not, its more based of projections and reports of west finance institutions.More interesting for me is, how people in EU belive they live in 10% inflation, like official statistic say. :)

​@suport bghelp it's the same here in North American inflation is 10- 15 %, but we're told it's 7-8 % well we the consumers know better 😉

@@suportbghelp4938 10% was last year, it's around 7% now.

"Russia can't handle the truth" A lie maybe....

​@@suportbghelp4938 europe's Inflation is not 10% but 8.7%.russia's inflation is higher.its now 18%.

or at least just more air, jesus the guy can talk.

@@robpearce Or maybe cos he is saying what you want to hear, that does not mean he is right. He seem to be taking the issue too personal, hence I suspect he is saying what he want to be true not necessarily what is already true.

​@@JBEMultimediamadrid i dont agree with him, and even if i did it's hard to listen to someone that spews words endlessly. There's probably some truth that russia is feeling the pinch, and probably some in that they're lying about their numbers, but its being presented like it's some sensation. Russia lies about everything, same as china. No surprises here. I agree he's taking this way too personal, feels like he's on a crusade against russia.

@@JBEMultimediamadrid Funny that works the other direction he must be wrong because he isn't saying what i want him to say. This guy isn't lying he even mention sources and any country that had that much exiting it would crush them. Even the Russia news said Russia is screwed because they dont make anything and that all their tech is western!

At least 1 person knows what is happening

'the retail industry is down 65%'))))) Where did he find such an absurd?? Anyone who lives in Russia has seen practically no difference in our shops since the beginning of 2022. There are multiple videos in youtube on this topic. Why does DW invite this cheater?

It feels great that Russia can many times over, nuke NATO to obliteration.

@@nikiphoross Sure......

Several videos on RU-vid about mall that are half empty...

@@mb1150 please show this link. I live in Russia, and I've never seen 'half-empty' malls. Probably you could see such scenes during coronavirus restrictions back in 2020

If he doesn't know that the real Russian growth or loss figures are how does he know that the IMF is wrong? Fact is if you look at the IMF estimates they varied throughout last year, first predicting a big loss then gradually revising that loss downward (in absolute terms). That seems to coincide with what we can all see happening in Russia via various bloggers, even anti-Putin ones. There are no longer panicked lines at the ATMs. Food is on the shelves in big and middle sized cities and even in the country side. Apple may have closed but the newest iPhone is apparently available in Russia, etc etc.

Only one fact I'd question, is Russia's production cost of oil being so much higher than other producers. I doubt that, and my guess is they are still making good money selling oil. I think the deaths of a lot of energy sector executives is likely to do with the Kremlin taking control of the revenue streams.

Germans should be very happy and thankful of USA. USA freedom is cheaper than Russians gas. Bravo Germany

Loved hearing this curmudgeon and all his honesty. Interesting and entertaining!!!

I liked the "I can't make up a number" bit

I'd rather see DW interviews regular Russians living in Russia to talk about their economy.

@@FrogHeat You don't even know what "sham" means, cool.

@@dragilxcom4176 I'd rather see both... but the people are not always so reliable to understand the actual health of the economy. Things can feel good (or bad), and the actual condition may be different. So what matters is, what do you want to use the data for? Do you want to know how people are doing now? Do you want to understand the near/distant future? Do you want to know a country's purchasing power? etc.

DW IS COMING RIGHT NOW...

@@dragilxcom4176citizens don’t have a clue about their economy.

If you buy just one share in a publicly traded company then you are a shareholder and can ask a question at its AGM and the company must respond publicly. This is the way to influence a company. The first rule of winning is to know the rules of the game. All the best. 👍

Awful interviewer, kept interupting. Great guest.

@@mostlyindica ...and you seem to know why that is, do you?

@@mostlyindica Have to disagree. Interviewer was good and gave plenty of time to speak. Secondly he was merely trying to adjust the direction of the conversation so that certain topics would be covered.

@@Electronite1978 Yep, insulting your guest is the mark of a truly skilled interviewer.

They had him on ages ago, where people complained they cut him off and didn't let him talk long enough. To DWs credit, they scheduled him a longer interview in response of the RU-vid comments

The professor is not biased , that I can tell .

Is ruzzia lying is like asking if pooptin is a genocidal goon? YES

@@sharon_shaw it's a fact that the sanctions were not a big impact

Delusional

​​​no the sanctions work even beter than we thouth i checkt the data from imf and ether russia is seling 250$ oil per barell to china and india or ther createt a Industrial miracel that is they createt as many Jobs in 1 yeah as the chines in 5 yeahrs

Because he is making it all up.

​@@An1Kum Yes, literally.

@@An1Kum Exactly, he is one of the intellectuals who are able to lie just to support their convictions.

Always good to hear the Goldman Sachs take on things. They stand to make a killing (figuratively?) in the unlikely event of a Ukraine victory.

How much do Russian internet trolls get paid these days?

Sure Prof Sonnenfeld is outstanding and extremely talented dude. He knows something very special about the Russian economy that is beyond the knowledge of the World bank and the IMF, and even the Russians themselves do not know and do not suspect about it. Sure "his team of researchers work endlessly and tirelessly to determine the state of the Russian economy", but it need to significantly raise funding, and give him the same amount of money as is given to Zelensky. Sure then everyone and everywhere on the Earth will be happy.

​@@Alx_T. To what end are you attached?

It beats looking at a hot female anchor, I can never concentrate

He does have his own show in the form of a class, in Yale lol

And honest. And direct.

Sure Prof Sonnenfeld is outstanding and extremely talented dude. He knows something very special about the Russian economy that is beyond the knowledge of the World bank and the IMF, and even the Russians themselves do not know and do not suspect about it. Sure "his team of researchers work endlessly and tirelessly to determine the state of the Russian economy", but it need to significantly raise funding, and give him the same amount of money as is given to Zelensky, Sure then everyone and everywhere on the Earth will be happy.

The General Assembly stresses the need to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace as soon as possible in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter" following the example of Kosovo

too bad he's always wrong. his yale team said Russia were crushed by EU sanctions then Russia sold a record amount of fossil fuels to them in 2022, he is not credible in this subject. sure he has done some good work in his career but on this one he is nothing but biased. his mother was from Ukraine and fled Russia in the 1920's, he was raised with biases.

Damn, this guy went all in wtf xD

@@Alx_T. • Professor Sonnenfeld's knowledge is not "beyond that of the World Bank and the IMF," nor is that what he said. The World Bank and the IMF are merely following the same protocols they've used in the past, which appears to be accepting the numbers reported by a country with no further verification. In contrast, Professor Sonnenfeld and his team use third party verification. As Sonnenfeld stated, Russia stopped doing its quarterly reports last spring. However, as long as OTHER countries continue their reporting, Sonnenfeld just looks at what countries are reporting sending to Russia and what they are receiving from Russia. The World Bank and IMF certainly have the knowledge to do this but they probably lack the staff if they've be able to rely on reported numbers for a century.

WB and IMF are US owned tools for debt traps.

Mike drop

If only he know what he is talking about. There is no Russia experts left after fall of USSR, and they still don't have Professonal Experts on Russia, well suck to be them lol

@@onerxowns2202 What now? Sound's like you tripped over an "adult" gummy on your way to making a comment.

Thats why this professor makes ststements with 0 facts backing em up...

“Trust me”??? 😅

What the entire western world forgets that India and China are nearly 50% of the worlds population and only if these two countries do business with Russia ... all of EU / NATO / USA / G7 sanctions are meaningless ... now add the other countries still doing business with Russia and these are South Africa, Brazil, Middle East, Egypt, Turkey, etc and you realize the height of stupidity that the western world thinks that there trade sanctions will defeat Russia

yes!

The General Assembly stresses the need to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace as soon as possible in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter" following the example of Kosovo

@@eliotness4029 Peace can be quickly achieved by Russia removing all their forces from Ukraine

He should spend more time on EU economy. Anybody care about Ukraine economy affected?

@@tasreasfatemsa8266 all EU data is published. If you want to know something, just look it up.

To be a liar?

He's very straightforward. Some want a number, because the database column format does not allow "unknown", it must be a numerical value. The software and newspapers would like to have 1 simple number. Hopefully at some point there will be a quantum leap, after having quickly realized that Russia's special military operation is actually a war, also realizing that rather than publishing and spreading invented numbers, being accurate is best: the real numbers are not known. And for obvious reasons. The Kremlin has absolutely no political or military interest to reveal the true state of the Russian economy. It could reveal vulnerabilities, prove the success of sanctions, increase discontent or undermine the war effort in other ways.

As long as we don’t see Gilligan in the mix

British economist Joe Blogs here on RU-vid has lots of daily, detailed content that goes in line with what we got from Yale Team. and Inside Russia, a guy who left recently russia, also reports similar BIG domestic trouble, although less economist in his presentation

Best economist * Period.

@@tamasgyorffy1 Joe Blogs doesn't make sense though because he uses the same data the IMF does but says their economy is destroyed or in a disaster. that's not what the IMF is saying, it's not what any economists are saying. the consensus on Russias economy is they have survived the sanctions and will start to grow steadily from this year or next year onwards. so it makes no sense for Joe Blogs to use data from these economic bodies but then not use the same conclusions.

And we can clearly tell a bot comment when you see one because there’s 300 likes and not one single reply.

@@staceycolangelo8940 lmao as if anyone would pay for me to make a milquetoast comment like "have this guest more" or comment anything in reply. sounds like you are just chronically online

@@staceycolangelo8940 Stacey, my little Russian trollop, it is clearly you who is the bot.

@@staceycolangelo8940 z for ruskie zombie?

Music to your itching ears right?😆

I have more confidence in " independent Jurnalists " that have no dog in the fight.

Yep. Their McDonald's restaurants that closed, use all the same food and exact same menus. They just changed the name of the menu items.

And if you can survive with Burger King or KFC no problem at all. The prof gives interesting infos but he should have explained his work is not contradicted by the fact foreigners can buy roubles (at a less competitive rate than before the war) or most of western brands are available, at least through internet if shops are officially closed.

This is inaccurate. There are more counterfeit products than there are real ones, and I've bought many of them over the years, incl in eastern Europe. Not that Nike is great quality but the fakes I've bought were simply atrocious quality. Same with Mcd's, sure it's a hamburger but the money equipment isn't serviced anymore, the meat comes from elsewhere, and the profits (and new capital!) go and come from elsewhere

They‘re knockoffs.

@Fletcher standard reply to truthfull answers now days, no proof no explanation no reason

@Fletcher Maybe he should work for Putin.

Sure Prof Sonnenfeld is outstanding and extremely talented dude. He knows something very special about the Russian economy that is beyond the knowledge of the World bank and the IMF, and even the Russians themselves do not know and do not suspect about it. Sure "his team of researchers work endlessly and tirelessly to determine the state of the Russian economy", but it need to significantly raise funding, and give him the same amount of money as is given to Zelensky. Sure then everyone and everywhere on the Earth will be happy.

I follow a few russian RU-vidrs and Bloggers to get an inside perspective. All of them fled, they left Russia, and they decided that they will probarbly never come back.... So they can speak freely. Obviously they have many contacts still in Russia. What they tell about how the economy is actually doing is harrowing. Some companies just shut down and vanished. Inflation is crazy. The rubel exchange rate is completely artificial. Imagine a software engineering company: All their male workers are being drafted or fled, in software development that is around 80%, no access to new computers, software licences cancelled due to sanctions, customers abroad cannot pay them due to sanctions. So there is basically noone left and who remains cannot work and the company cannot make money.

@@Alx_T. You sad little nonsensical troll. Did you have to upvote your own post?

@@kurtilein3 I'm guessing Putin's economy admin started artificially inflating the value of the ruble around march 2022 when it hit its nadir. So I cannot trust any of the charts I pull up on it. Months ago, Frontline had a good documentary on all the young people who've had to leave Russia. My take is that Putin is sending all the non-ethnic-russians to his war to die, so all that will be left are the brain-washed Russian non-educated worker class and the Moscow elites ... oh, and the St. Petersburg troll farms. Ethnic cleansing.

@@urkiddingme6254 Oh, i forgot to mention, my favorite source is Inside Russia on RU-vid. About the ruble: After the start of the war, it was banned for russians to do a number of things with rubles. You cannot buy foreign currencies, gold, crypto, or anything like that with rubles if you are russian. Foreign ruble reserves got depleted as you needed to pay for russian oil, gas or raw materials using some percentage of rubles. The rest got sold off because its so obvious that the price is currently inflated. To find a fair price for anything, it has to be freely bought and sold. A big trade volume, freely traded, means the price is highly likely to be correct, a fair market value. If the trade volume is very low, it is easy and inexpensive to manipulate the price. If almost noone is selling rubles, because foreign reserves have dried up and russians are banned from selling rubles, you need to do almost no buying to prop up the price. Which is exactly what is happening. Almost no sellers and Putin is buying at a very low volume, which is affordable and more than enough to keep the price high. Allow russians to buy stuff like USD, Euro, gold, crypto and so on, and you get a rapid and painful adjustment.

I mean, they did let him talk. Half an hour of content and it's mostly just him speaking

No kidding that host is the king of interruptions.

He’s a figurehead, he has a team of students doing all the fact checking and research.

It was way worse the first time. Invited him on for a total of 4 minutes and kept interrupting. This wasn't so bad.

@@LivingWithGout Still has to put his name and accreditations to the release. So yeah...

I was there, so I agreed with the Prof, he is an experience person base on his replies. Not a focaster. Russia is dead economic wise.

U know nothing...

Many kompanny gone from Rusia, Many people lost they job,verarry Diller gone, Mercedes gone, McDonald gone, Toyota gone, sturbuck gone,customer energy gone, no Atm internasional,only gas oil they have now,but not Many customer, have to might big diskon to sale they energy, slowly will collape if not stop invader Ukraine.

It's speculation

​@@khalidhamid7448 no speculation Oil production is way down and they are getting £55/barrel.... It will get worse and worse by the month. Oil will be frozen in the tundra as the flow stops

Agreed! Fantastic. I watched it twice.

Including russian 🐑🐑. Slava 💛💙

The interview was full of conspiracy theory stuff, but I could see it being useful for someone that wants to fuel their confirmation bias to support their pro-Ukraine point of view.

@@GolfNut867 There is only a pro-Ukraine point of view. Putin is a murderer!!!!

@Brian Hoy No. ZELENSKY is. Forcing 65 year old seniors and 14 year old boys at gunpoint to fight in the comedian's war at the orders of his American neoconservative puppet masters - the same folks that brought you the Iraq War.

No you wouldn’t, you’re not even a real person. You’re a bot

Yes YT is banned in Russia. :D But u can watch RT free every day! :)

The Russians people know for sure they live there and feel the inflation.

Care for yourself, rather than for Russians))

Yes what a shame that we can't watch RU-vid in Russia and don't even understand how bad our life has become, this proffessor is democrat's shithead, how could he know Russia's unemployment statistics when he admits at the begining that no one have current statistics on Russia's economy.

Obviously Russian people who can’t access outer media or live further away from the buzzing cities don’t need ‘truth’, they feel or do not feel it on their skin.

He's clearly a Ukrainian puppet.

Right? Just give him the mic and say ok sir...go... and just upload it as is...I would watch it all.

Precisely the opposite of what comes out of russia

he has a research team made of people who do their job very decently

Yes a passionate propagandist for NATO!

Agreed 💯

Very good IMF & World Bank Are Pro US & You Call Their Economic Review As False Any Fact Check On IMF & World Bank Data On Russian Economy

Why ? He said nothing good about the " western "economy where I live.

​@@jbbeiser983 I daubt that you live in the West otherwise you would know that we live much better than the average Russian and our economy does not collapse.

@@maritaschweizer1117 right? Lol

@@maritaschweizer1117 Indeed. Also note they’ve stopped gloating that we’re all supposedly going to freeze, lmao. That plan of theirs totally failed and they just pretend they were never relying on it, and they were soooo happy about the idea too 😂

@@jbbeiser983 he wasn't asked about western economies.

"Is Russia lying...?" Yes. About literally everything.

😂

"Putler is lying - I have no source to back anything I said but trust me,okay?" You are braindead if believe anything he said

@@apsoypike1956 Not to mention, Russia can probably return to a quasi-communistic state to maintain its war economy if things get bad enough. Or full communism, like North Korea.

@@VVayVVard How does returning to full communism help Russia?

Well he was doing his part due to time limit. If he doesn't you might not get the chance to know that the professor was good. I like your vision.

​@@wilsonleeroy9821 I disagree. True wisdom is this: Less is more. Fewer questions with such a high-quality guest would have resulted in a much higher quality interview, and a much, much more enjoyable interview to boot. The interviewer unfortunately doesn't understand this fundamental truth. But he's not alone. He's just a run-of-the-mill, replaceable, talking-head journalist. They're a dime a dozen. Not so people like Dr. Sonnenfeld. DW should be ashamed of themselves that they have virtually NO vision.

Absolutely, the interview is stopping us getting information.I wish he would stop interrupting.

I disagree. The interviewer only structured the topics into statistics -. foreign companies - Russian raw material, labour, gas and oil market. - This was very helpful because Prof S. would have jumped between subjects. Next time, give him the Agenda upfront, or publish a full lecture.

Don't blame the interviewer for that. Its blamed to their limited time for that interview.

Oh Professor, unlike dictators, you need to lodge your application then you'll get a license..............................to lie.