The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in this recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor.
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Agree, but Tesla seems to be more general and exploratory than other autonomous driving, and directed toward "AGI". . Imo actually no Turing machine could be as intelligent as even a hammer - (not to imply FSD and other amazing things aren't achievable).
I'm aligned with your view, well articulated. My point is that using AGI as a metaphor to describe FSD muddies the waters. It risks totally deluding the meaning of what an actual AGI would be. if the domain was well understood by most people, the metaphorical use wouldn't be so bad. However, people don't understand the domain at all, and so the metaphor does way more harm than good imo. In the end, pretty funny how much time i can spend thinking about this even though only 10 people will ever see my comment 😂@@red-baitingswine8816
The bond market is sending a very strong message that we're heading into a recession and that the economy will continue to slow. Also Ukraine war and uncertainly in the middle east not great of course, Elon is right that this isn't the time to step on the gas. Don't expect upcoming quarters to be as rosy and don't expect huge growth, only good thing is I think legacy automakers will be hurting 10x more than Tesla. So Tesla might still continue to grow market share overall.
We all should admit that someone close to Elon should apple some slight criticism into him. Let's be honest, most of us love Elon, but he is way obsessed with X, and this is bringing him down. Problem is he is surrounded by simps who don't open their mouth.
Declining margins and further price cuts on top of that might lead to even worse earnings next quarter. Current PE is very high considering the earnings declines. Most of the stock price is due to FSD and AI. We might see 100 dollar TSLA in coming months.
yeah it has a gap to fill at 145 and a double bottom at 100, I don't know why people keep wanting to ignore this, I keep telling them but tesla bulls are a different breed of degenerate gamblers.
@@sethaldrich6902 Buying & selling based on technical analysis is not investing. That's trading. If that's what you do, that's fine. But I'm just holding the stock until literally 2030+ lol. It's a different thing to invest vs. trade.
It is a CAR company deriving 85% of its revenue from car business. Way too risky to invest or even hold on until 2024. It is a car business where consumers will have to rely on auto mortgage, and with int rate remaining super high for 2024 I don't think Tesla can grow much. The margin will be down. And if ev credits stop flowing in, then stock will suffer massively. Way too much uncertainty for future.
As much as I’m hopeful for FSD to come to fruition, I can’t help but observe Elon’s comment regarding logarithmic plateaus with respect to FSD progression. I was left with a distinct impression that even with end-to-end NN they are still experiencing logarithmic peaks that they still have to progress through. I think his initial impressions and exuberance with e2e NNs has been tempered some by the drag that progress still entails.
Good i want tesla stop to stay low i want to keep buying if they have level 5 tomorrow forget about it the stock would go to the moon and the insane buying opportunity would be over. I actually hope it takes another 5 years before FSD is complete so long as tesla is first to the party
I think you need to see this in context of Elons mind, as he really thought FSD would be solved this year, and now he has relized its not that easy. Wished we could hear from the FSD developers themself
What I criticize with Elon's handling of FSD progress is him always talking about anecdotal evidence (I drives me around in Austin all the time) instead of looking and presenting numbers, specifically number of miles driven between (critical) interventions. This is a metric that is widely used in the autonomous driving space but Tesla never discusses it. It should be easy to show progress by plotting that number vs time. Moreover it would give us all an idea how far they still are from level 4 or 5.
hahaha mixed earnings? Well that's optimistic. Price cuts were never a good sign, rising interests rates as well. Self driving won't be a thing, at least for another 30 years or so. Boy this guy is super optimistic, lol. Would expect nothing less than a tesla bull.
What I loved about earnings were; energy growt and margins, explosion in AI compute, 40% improvements in 4680, cost reductions and cybertruck event . I am very bullish looking out 1-1,5 years.😊
@@LuKiSCraft agree, I was rhinking about when all the signs were positive, batteries, cybertruck, mexico and the next gen model. I think in 7 years the stock will be 5-9 times todays price.
@@MrAlanfalk73 yeah and even if margins compress to single-digits, it is worse for legacy auto than for Tesla. There will be a faster Tesla & BYD takeover the longer it takes rates to cool... right now Tesla is just getting its hardware install base to build its ecosystem. Similar to Apple in 2010
affordability is NOT an issue, when will Elon learn? premium ICE vehicles sell like crazy. limited range of an EV is the issue even if Elon and most fanboys don't understand but this is what survey results show. the majority cannot charge at home and no one wants to spend hours at a charging station every week so instead of cutting prices, they should put in a larger battery pack
Recent US restrictions on NVDA chip exports to China should be good for Tesla since Elon a while back said he’ll buy ALL the chips NVDA can produce for him.
Thanks Dave, was traveling yesterday with my family so missed the earnings call, but appreciate the update/summary!! Been thinking about your wife and your family, continuing to send positive thoughts your way!!
Wasn't the Model 3, "sitting in your driveway" supposed to be producing money while you sleep because FSD and roboteslas will be on the road in 2020? When does the hype stop?
I think Elon conveyed the development of the “Model 2” is not coming as fast as fans hoped. He didn’t lay out any timeline. Things appear to have slowed down. Years not months.
Over $8.5 trillion in existing government debt is being refinanced next year. The Fed still has to dump around $2 trillion back on to the market. The government is gonna run another $2 trillion in debt next year. There is absolutely no way interest rates will go down by much. Not enough buyers.
@@jordanslingluff287 just to get your feedback on this. So is the FED still pumping money into the economy? Just trying to understand this. Heard from a friend, as interest rates drop the FED will stop injecting money into the economy, and also the huge amount of debt from both the government and many, large, middle and small caps companies will sort of drive us into recession. Thus the indicator of the uninverted yield curve indicator coming into play. Just a bit confused when I hear that dropping interest rate will save the economy. In my opinion, it will, but there is a lag effect.
Very helpful commentary, I just found it a little too mild to be saying earnings were mixed, I feel its more disaster for Tesla given its current valuation above 60 PE, when investors expect high growths but are getting a flattening out slope for earnings, it doesn't sound like it deserves such a valuation and transiting more to a mature company structure with slowed growth and a focus more on bottom line than top line. That looks even worse when China has cut Tesla out of the picture with its own BYD fleet. I hope I am wrong as I am also invested but may look to take profit in the near term
Here is my read on the points you're higlighting. 1) FSD Capitulation: Elon basically capitulated on his "It's going to happen this year" goal and explain why he's been wrong on it in the past, giving no concrete date this time. 2) Energy revenue: Agreed was good to see some part of Tesla actually improving earnings. 3) Big bad news for CyTruck - it's going to be a loss leader for the next year. Elon made similar comments about shooting themselves in the foot with the model X, which is over-engineered. Didn't sound confident about making the car and was throwing cold water on it citing challenges. The three challenges: 1) Growth - Elon blames everything on macro and does not outline a way out of this. (Can't believe they have no plan?) Production not ramping or ramping way under potential. Not even going to start building the Mexico plant for now. 2) Margins - Elon is surrounded by yes men and therefore they are not even making plans to stimulate demand. Why would they? They just reduce the prices right? Well no, since they're halting the production ramp we can clearly see even lowering prices does not work. 3) Macro forecast - it is something to be *dealt with*, not cry about. Back to point #1. They need to do something revolutionary, like they did with providing insurance and not cry macro. Elon being the absolutist baby leading a huge company is not good for anyone. He needs to start making plans with the smart people he's surrounded with. Maybe that's why Zack left.
No they have the money to build a 5 star factory from the ground up. No need to remodel an old ice factory. The most an old ice factory is worth is the land value minus the cost of demolition
Agreed. If it drops back to $150 or lower I will just buy more lol. Bulls just need to hang on until rates cool. Who knows when that will happen, but when it does, TSLA ain't gonna trade sideways anymore
Let's assume that by 2030 Tesla will produce 20 million cars per year. It may not achieve that goal, but let's give Tesla the benefit of doubt. Let's also assume that the average price of Tesla's cars will be $50,000/car. Therefore, in 2030, Tesla's revenue will be $1 trillion. If we look at Tesla as a car company, its gross margin will be under 20%, probably it will be around 17 or 18%. At that gross margin, the price/sale ratio may not be over 0.7. Therefore, in 2030, Tesla's market cap will be $700 billion. Tesla's current market cap is $673 billion. Therefore, the gain in Tesla's share price during the next 7 years will be about only 4% or 0.56%/year. In other words, Tesla's share price in 2030 will be about $220. But, if Tesla can come up with Robo Taxis in large numbers, then that's different game. But, it's highly unlikely that we will see Tesla's Robo Taxis by 2030 given the fact that as of today, Tesla doesn't have a Level-4 vehicle yet. Also, regulators may take a much longer time to allow Robo Taxis to be on all the roads of the US.
The roadblocks to driverless vehicles on the regulatory and political front is being way underestimated. There are so many power spheres domestically and abroad that will challenge every inch of the "road". The delays will be years most likely and for reasons that will surprise even the experts.
'24 will be the year of the 4680 batteries. Go back and listen to Drew Bagolina's (SP) comments. 20 million cells off 1 assembly line with three more being started currently and the building at GTexas for another 4 lines under construction, to be completed and ramping by late '24. And then there are the lines at Nevada and Fremont to be considered. Pay attention.
Would like to see more side by side chart and fact compitition comperasants. Pricing, production, problomes, and PR in currant market would add more value.
Tesla stock obviously 7% down in premarket is going to get punished and WELL DESERVED, if Elon musk delivers a depressing speech on earning call, this is a reaction he’s going to get from all kinds of investors, short, medium and long-term. I like Elon musk as a person I think he’s a genius, but he has this other side which is kind of fucked up, he kind of play with peoples money like that. There is a lot of people that have invested savings in his company.
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Why nobody is talking about the semi? A product that is ready and that is recession proved. 2024 i would try too sell as many as possible meanign focus on hight production numbers. Looks like the cybertruck is recession proved too. So tesla has two winners to susain high overall production.
Tesla is hyper risk, I would rather short than invest. Cybertruck will not even be legal in many markets. Model 3 is boring and the Chinese are flooding the market with good cars. Robo taxi is a dream only
I think Elon could've poured more doom and gloom on that call. He could've spent even more time on bank collapses and interest rate hikes. God that call was awful.
Stop dreaming about FSD which will take another 10 years at least. Tesla needs to work on a normal looking truck using model Y platform without the heavy stainless steel exterior. Tesla also needs to introduce its own App Store already.
There remain to be sensory problems. For example FSD is impossible to function in the dark. If you own a Tesla you know this. Also rain is a massive issue. For this reason I believe that aslong there is no radar or lidar to assist, this is just all and only to train the model. I dare not to use my autopilot in low light situations.
Hey Dave, Excellent summary. In spite of developing the model Tau, $25,000 vehicle, in Austin... will Tesla wait for GigaMex to be production ready ? Maybe rou want to maximize output after Release.
