The Ukraine Conflict (Almost) Guaranteed Macron Wins the Election - TLDR News 

At the time he said NATO was braindead, it was almost true. But Putin came to its aid and revived it.

Personally, I don't think there's anything wrong with discussing how a foreign conflict affects a country's political scene. It's the nature of politics. Everything affects everything else in one way or another.

Being a leader in a war (especially a defensive one) usually helps with the popularity front (as long as you are not loosing or unable to break a very long stalemate).

I don't understand how talking about the effect of the war in Ukraine on elections is grotesque. It's just geopolitics affecting geopolitics. Nothing particularly shocking or new.

Well, Macron met with Putin in person and failed to prevent the war, but he tried until the very end. Putin made his mind long ago, nothing could have been done to stop him. At least Macron tried to reason him until the end, that was the only right thing to do. That is why the french don't blame him, on the contrary he's being praised for doing his best to do the right thing. Macron called for an european defense for years, this crisis proved he was right since the begining.

At this point, the possibility of the European Union slowly Federalizing itself isn't really such a crazy idea anymore.

Again, Germany has not tripled their military budget. Germany did spend around 50 billion dollars on defense in the past (about 1.4% of GDP), has now commited to to increase it to >2% of GDP which would increase it to about 80 billion dollars, and plans on a one time spending of a 100 billion dollars. These 100 billion are not part of the yearly budget, they are just a fund where the army can draw from to fix current issues and once the money is gone it's gone. Also none of that is fixed yet as it has to be voted on first.

I am kind of content that Putin has basically butchered the European far right that have such high regard toward Putin. And give a chance the more centralist leaders like Macron and Scholz to show that you don't have to be a far right to act tough and firm.

6:20 Didn't know that Sicily was out of NATO :D

About Pécresse, she had a catastrophic first meeting that was widely talked about in France, she pretty much lost the election because of that

Most right wingers who aligned themselves with Putin are finding it hard to distance themselves from him but like someone said "voters have a very short memory" things could change within a month or a year

It saved Boris aswell. He was poised to be ousted,he lost support from some of the torries and there was a major backlash from the people but he did not resign.

Using the 2002 presidential election to prove Chirac's popularity is a bad idea. Chirac performed terribly in the first round with less than 20% of the votes, worse than any sitting President before him.

It's also important to point out that Macron was lucky in that it was France's turn to hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU when the war broke out. A tenure that lasts six months and is probably part of why he's had such a prominent role in the diplomatic relations between Russia and the EU. If it wasn't France's turn, those calls to Macron would likely have gone to another EU leader, the one who was in that position. Also it's also worth noting Macron also said that Russia's security concerns are maybe legitimate, which is why Putin might be more likely to talk to him over other leaders who haven't given him the same respect for his point of view. Even if they vehemently disagree on a lot of things, namely, the war in Ukraine.

The Hungarian election is in 3 weeks, it's also important and it's also being affected by the Ukraine war. On top of that, this is probably the first time in 12 years that Viktor Orbán could realistically lose power (although it seems more likely he'll win). So could you talk about it?

I may not like Macron, but I am happy the Far-Right isn't getting a good deal out of this.

It’s ok to talk about other things than the war. Just because there’s a war going on doesn’t mean everything else stops.

As French, I congratulate you for having summarized much better than local media , the French political situation for the past 1 year. You can specify that if Macron is so popular in France, despite some mistakes, he is a huge worker on all the topics he addresses. This is what French demand. good work!

France's engagement in Ukraine has long been overlooked. France was until last year the biggest weapons provider to Ukraine. France was the leading party in the last Normandy format negotiations as well as pushing Germany to stop NS2 long before it was cool. Merci a vous, mes amis francais.

I'm french and I agree with what you said, even my dad said he might vote for Macron despite being a long time Melenchon supporter, if he does that, he won't be the only one ^^

I'm so glad TLDR are here to keep me updated

As some of the comments below, there appears to be a clear weakening of extremist (Far-Right mostly) political views in Western Europe/US etc. as a result of political figures now having a need to distance oneself from Putin. That said, I'm wondering if this is truly just a result of wanting to distance oneself, or is it because the money flow from Russia to the West has essentially stopped and as a result the funding for various extremist groups has dried up?

Frankly as a French, I think he's the luckiest president

The first thing a psychoanalyst does is get to know his patient. So no, his early talks were not a failure, nor were those with Trump when he got in. I'm no great fan of Macron but on the international stage he's excelled, much to the annoyance of a some UK politicians. Personally I'd much rather Macron speak to Putin than Liz Truss or Boris!

Thanks for another great video 😊 (Just a heads up, "largest" has been misspelt at 1:06)

The other thing that you didn’t mention, but I think is very real in the French psyche, is that they sense that the leadership of Europe is theirs on a plate unless they do something really stupid. In an uncertain world, suddenly power, food and military security become important - France is 70% domestic nuclear self sufficient, the only EU country that is self sufficient in food production and it’s only nuclear and serious conventional power. The U.K. has excluded itself but, helpfully, is a very close military ally - much closer than most realise. Germany is on the back foot in a big way, over dependent on Russian fuels and the Chinese market, unproven leadership, 80 years of pacifism and a huge military gap to catch up on - all of its assumptions of drawing the east and west together with Germany at the centre are gone. Up till now the French have mocked Macron for his imperiousness (nickname “Jupiter”) but if he can make it real and give them (back) their national pride and put them where (in their eyes) they should be, leading Europe, they’ll love him for it.

Great video!

Working so fast that LAREST just slips through.

so putin thought this war would weaken his european foes, but what it basically did was strengthen Macron’s position as the de facto leader of Europe

Outside France : "Macron is such a great leader!" In France : "He must leave!" 😂🤣

You mean the French don't want one of Putin's little minions in charge? I'm shocked.

Lepen and Zemmour are both jokes, no way they gonna achieve anything anytime soon.

Please, be more careful with Sicily in your maps: this is the second video in which you don't show it as part of Italy-EU-Nato. Thank you!

The war in Ukraine also helped a presidential candidate in my country because of similar circumstances (and elections is taking place soon) - Having a larger, more powerful neighbor that tries to take over territories - Seeing the state of Ukraine instilled fear that we shouldn't face the same fate - We felt that Western Powers didn't do quite enough to end the conflict as soon as possible. This particular candidate is more diplomatic (peace) while others wanted military alliances (war) Unlike Ukraine, we don't have neighbors to run to. So a war will really cause a bloodbath. We already faced too much civil conflict due to foreign interference. We are not about to lose more lives

Talking about russian influence in foreign elections, the irony.

3:54 There's a typo in there. "Strategic" has two t's

I honestly think he's come off a little bit "Neville Chamberlain-ish". "Don't worry everyone, I'll talk him out of it" Sure thing buddy.

As an American, hearing that some French politicians have called the invasion of Crimea legitimate, and blaming the invasion of Ukraine on NATO expansion is shocking. I had always thought that these beliefs were extremist, and no serious politician in a stable Democracy would ever publicly endorse them. It is relieving to see that the French public does not generally support these views. If these are Macron’s opponents, then I have enormous respect for Macron as it pertains to the Russian Invasion.

2:53 this picture of jean marie le pen is priceless...

So everyone in this world is a damn Opportunistic person. One man's pain is another mans pleasure

I'm not that intune with the overall French opinion but when just about all your opponents have been seen publicly legitimizing Putins actions for the past decade or being an apologist for him, that makes you look pretty good by comparison.

Russia: France is a threat to us! They have EU's largest military force! France: Hon hon hon! No my friend, we have the Larest military force. We pose no threat to you.

My question is why the table is so big? It’s hilarious 😂

Great summery by the way dispite TLDR's normal oddities.

the NATO map is wrong again you missed Montenegro and N Macedonia 😂

You're reacting quickly to events. Don't worry too much about spelling errors, TLDR. Be kind to yourself. Vincent from Canada

Why are the title and description in past tense?

A video like that should never be made

Macron best option. France knows.

I love it when authoritarians' actual attitudes come back to bite them.

Please make a piece about the expected future of the italian right in this situation. People liks Salvini now seem to also have to reposition themself (cough T-shirt gate ;-) ) thx

4:29 Is there any reason why Sicily isn't in Nato ? 🤣

It really helped boris too. He would have had to resign due to party gate.

I always thought it stange that nationalists would tow the line of a foreign leader, and now it bites them. I wonder if and how they would reposition themselfs long term.

You misspelled largest and it says larest

Anyone else realize that whenever it was supposed to say “largest” on the screen, it said “larest” instead?

Once again TLDR uploads a video with multiple spelling mistakes. It can't be that difficult to check the minimal written words in each video.

Let me just take a moment to appreciate your opening disclaimer. Honesty is something we all should value more, and you're setting a very good example. Thank you.

Nice video, my opinion on the polls stays the same, the only one that matters is the one on voting day

"you get the point!"

Thank you for telling me Macron has emerged as the defacto leader of Europe. Saves me needing to buy Nebula just to watch your "who's the new leader of Europe" video 😬

How funny would it be for Melenchon to overtake Lepen and go to the second round honestly. Everyone was freaking out about two and a half far right candidates (it's debatable for Pecresse) having a chance to make it to the second round, and everyone was making fun of the left for not being able to unite itself around one person and therefore losing any chance to go to the second round. It would just be funny that the opposite happens, all the far right candidates share the diminished far right vote and the left voters manage to gather around Melenchon. Disclaimer: I am not saying that because I especially love Melenchon, I know he has no chance to win, but as a Belgian, since this election is pretty much already decided in advance, I love to see it more like entertainment lol

The war gives him a very good reason not to campaign and debate his opponents, which gives less to criticise.

And here I thought "Macron" was a chewy cookie made with shredded coconut

To be fair Macron was way ahead in the poles before the war. Brexit has probably helped more as Zammour, Le Pen and Melenchon have all stopped their Frexit discours since the disaster to the UK's economy and society. I think also, we see how inhumain the rightwing Johnson government is and it is a big turn off for rightwing politics.

Rich, European countries expect a security guarantee from the US while continuing to underfund their own militaries, failing to strongly ally with the US/JP/SK/AUS/PHL/etc. in Indo-Pacific, and funding China's cold war against the US.

Good video

The production quality gets worse the more the videomakers try to make themselves a partial centre of attention. The sound is now worse and echoey. The professionalism has dropped. The presenter is distracting to the absorption of information.

Most European leaders will probably keep their posts during this time with a common enemy. Populist right wing politicians and populist left wing politician will have a hard time.

No offense, but Macron victory was a done deal long before the war un Ukraine, even those that vote for other party say so without hesitation in France. Basically : His first term was kind of good, compared to usual French standard, the complaint against it is very very low (That's how you determine what people think or anything in France, how much they complain about it), second, the other party are incredibly scattered, like never before, the traditionnal left even has two candidate, both of which are incredibly unpopular, third, the only party with some semblance of chance to make a second turn against macro are very far left or very far right, and since the French people are overall very center left or center right, it's auto loose for them and fourth, even though they are tones of candidates, and even 6-7 that are "serious", all of them are incredibly unpopular : Far left, the dude is a crazy popuplist which insult everyone and has regular altercation with the police, traditionnal left : two women, both incredibly unpopular and unlikable, traditionnal right, had a chance with a new face, a woman, but she basically bombed every debate and intervention, she has negative charism, finally far right : We have 5-6 candidate, two which are more likely, one it usual far right and is very unpopular, other is a new guy that had a short moment of glory before people actually get to listen to him talking on different subject and it was so bad his popularity plummeted

I accidentaly read ,,makaron" instead of ,,Macron", wich means pasta in my native language. Now I'm dissapointed

I am French. France (Macron) said for years european defense is needed, strategic autonomy is needed, low-carbon energy (nuclear) has to be considered... And I could continue. Germany did not see the point of a good army hence the state of the Bundeswehr. Germany constantly opposes us on nuclear, yet finds practical to get cheap electricity from us (whose probability to come from nuclear is 70% approximately). Germany has demonstrated for more than 15 years an obvious lack of depth when it comes to strategic thinking and should stop trying to consider itself a model IMO. By the way France is dependent on russian gas for 17% of its needs. Germany is above 50%. Nuf said!

I have a Facebook Friend in the States (I'm British myself) of the Trumpian persuasion for whom, I have noted, Marine Le Pen is something of a political heroine so I've been wondering what her position was in the context of the French Presidential Election over the war in Ukraine, so thanks for this very informative video. That certainly was a bit of a virtual hand-brake turn regarding that literature that had to be scrapped! "Nothing to see here.", indeed!

I am a Romanian married to a French woman and I can tell that French men like to talk politics at family dinnings. What I notices is that Melanchon voters are more likely than the others to make geography errors "my neighbour went to see her mom in Belarus (5 minutes later) when she came back from Russia". I feel that something changed for the Melanchon voters when they saw the real face of Putin. However, I didn't see any change for far-right voters, I cross fingers for your analysis on Le Pen and Zemmour but I am afraid is false.

Good video although I don't think I'll be visiting Fukishima any time soon ;-) On the subject matter Macaroni is an astute politician, never let any crisis go to waste now! Same in Britain with Brexit, UK's relative trading actually improved!

Anyone else the misspelling of "european strategic economy"at 3:35?

Looking at BoJo, and Macron, in both policy and substance. Though neither my own choice, as a leftie. French influence and prestige, has an upward trajectory, across Europe. BoJo is somewhere in the North Atlantic, not waving, but drowning.

It would be hard for Macron to not win with how the other candidates dealt with Putin...

Is there some aggregator for opinion polls internationally? I'd like to see such polls without the inevitable interpretation of news papers.

You guys need to do more quality control on your stuff, in recent videos I have noticed a lot of spelling errors and editing mistakes. Good video otherwise though

Attack both sides! Let's eat Vladivostok!

More sloppiness than normal in this piece, Europe is not the same thing as European Union, so video barely starts before there are two factually incorrect statements concerning military & economy. Numbers for Germany are also not correct, I'm trying to think of a way to interpret the numbers that would make your claim true but there isn't one, whilst general point is true that Germany is (finally) saying it is going to take defence seriously, the numbers he gives are just wrong. As to Macron winning reelection, there was never much of a chance he wouldn't according to analysts. He's pulling off the normal French tradition of ministers grandstanding, which unfortunately hasn't helped Ukraine situation at all, but does seem to have helped him domestically - so hopefully French do actually want this guy leading them.

Lol you excluded Sicily from your map of Europe 😂😂😂

Love the videos, always great to have your perspective! But please, please please please, spellcheck guys! This is your larest flaw

TLDR is the best international news

Macron isn't the only one still in contact with Putin. Finnish president is also still in contact with Putin

Forgot the G. Graphic says “Europe’s Larest Military”

3:40 --- Scholz 🇩🇪 and Niinistö 🇫🇮 still have regular communication with Putin too, Macron is not the only one

Please, it's grotesque that a disclaimer was given at the start. Elections are affected by all sorts of things and many involve people suffering - always has been and always will. Disclaimers are a sign of the intolerant times in which we live.

Ah, yes, "larest"

there is a typo at 03:53, just letting you know :)

Taking active role in the security of yourself, seems like obvious thing to do.

This guy is a legend. Simply the best president in all of EU combined. Love from Slovenia.

It also helped Boris… luckiest PM in history.

Why did Pecresse flop though? I am really curious about it yet nobody mentions it. When she was picked over Bertrand, the polls for her skyrocketed, then since early February she just ended up falling.

Lovely synopsis.

Macron has been the de facto leader of the EU since Merkel left. He's a competent politician. Europe is lucky to have him.

A similar video about the Hungarian elections (3rd of April), would be also very interesting.

I'm not French, but the way he says "Melenchon" is hurting my ears

So... hail Caesar? I guess?