Тёмный

The US Debt Crisis (explained) 

EPB Research
Подписаться 101 тыс.
Просмотров 52 тыс.
50% 1

Join our Free Business Cycle Training - www.epbresearc...
In this video, we'll not only break apart the debt situation in the public sector (US Government), but also analyze the private sector's debt burden. And if you happen to make it to the end, I'll share my unfiltered thoughts on the future trajectory of the U.S. debt crisis from the perspective of an economist.
EPB Research Services: www.epbresearc...
Video edited by: www.tranches.com
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.

Опубликовано:

 

6 сен 2024

Поделиться:

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист
Посмотреть позже
Комментарии : 307   
@Peterl4290
@Peterl4290 21 день назад
The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
@Mrshuster
@Mrshuster 21 день назад
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
@sabastinenoah
@sabastinenoah 21 день назад
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@bobwright-90
@bobwright-90 21 день назад
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@jerrycampbell-ut9yf
@jerrycampbell-ut9yf 21 день назад
Please tell me how I can get her help because I'm new to this.
@bobwright-90
@bobwright-90 21 день назад
Her name is Annette Christine Conte can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
@kortyEdna825
@kortyEdna825 Месяц назад
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
@KaurKhangura
@KaurKhangura Месяц назад
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
@carssimplified2195
@carssimplified2195 Месяц назад
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@Justinmeyer1000
@Justinmeyer1000 Месяц назад
How can I reach this person?
@carssimplified2195
@carssimplified2195 Месяц назад
’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
@Justinmeyer1000
@Justinmeyer1000 Месяц назад
I checked Aileen up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
@raymond-i2v
@raymond-i2v 2 дня назад
Since the debt crisis could unleash carnage on the stock market leading to economic downturns. We need to be prepared for potential market volatility. how can I secure my $80K stock portfolio against declining?
@MaryWilliamson-h2o
@MaryWilliamson-h2o 2 дня назад
It's a good idea to seek advice at the moment, unless you're an expert yourself. As someone who runs a service business and sells products on eBay, I can tell you that the economy is struggling and many people are struggling financially.
@JacobPaula
@JacobPaula 2 дня назад
you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited $560k in 2023 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
@WillFred-g7g
@WillFred-g7g 2 дня назад
pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
@JacobPaula
@JacobPaula 2 дня назад
'Jessica Lee Horst' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
@MaryWilliamson-h2o
@MaryWilliamson-h2o 2 дня назад
Thanks, i did a quick web search and i found Jessica, i hope she responds to my mail.
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
We already crossed the threshold. Inflation is a tax
@Bookworm214-y3d
@Bookworm214-y3d Месяц назад
EXACTLY thats why theres no reason for inflation to ever come down...it will never come down . our debt relies on inflation getting worse and worse, if you didnt buy a house in 2021 you will never buy one
@e1000sn
@e1000sn Месяц назад
It's funny is that you've stepped on one of the key suppositions of modern monetary theory. I really dislike how this framework has been politicized because the framework itself is descriptive, rather than prescriptive. I think it's understandable that some politicians would prefer their voters to not know about MMT because if more people knew about MMT we might be quicker to understand tax cuts (un-paired with spending cuts) as a de-facto inflationary tax transferring money from the public to the recipinets of the tax cut. Similarly, too few people understand that new taxes are an important inflation fighting tool which could be used to stabilize rates without having to rely exclusively on rate-adjustments, mass unemployment, and artificial rescessions. There's no free lunch in economics, and having good tools to understand tax and government spending policy terrifies those who woud rather their policies skate by with as little examination as possible.
@khanch.6807
@khanch.6807 Месяц назад
​@@e1000sn There is free launch in economics. It's called using the sun and growing crops.
@e1000sn
@e1000sn Месяц назад
@@khanch.6807 - The words of someone who has never tried to grow food.
@khanch.6807
@khanch.6807 Месяц назад
@@e1000sn Says the guy who has no garden.
@piercesrail944
@piercesrail944 Месяц назад
I always enjoy tuning in to these data- driven videos. Quite clear and concise, they make my day when I see a new one is posted!
@EPBResearch
@EPBResearch Месяц назад
Great to hear!
@matthewjames1172
@matthewjames1172 Месяц назад
the US debt isn't itself the problem--the problem is the economic distortions this debt fuels.
@nyquil762
@nyquil762 Месяц назад
Nailed it. House prices, wars etc.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
@@nyquil762 the main distortion when it comes to house prices is artificial lack of supply due to strict zoning laws not the debt
@energyfitness5116
@energyfitness5116 16 дней назад
@@grimaffiliations3671 And Demographics.
@GuyIncognito764
@GuyIncognito764 Месяц назад
It's very immoral how debt got kicked up to federal level, making people who didn't take it on responsible for it. This country makes me sick sometimes.
@BicycleFunk
@BicycleFunk Месяц назад
We are obligated to pay attention and make the system work for us. Join any effort to make the country MORE democratic, not less like the neofascists would like to do.
@marcosalvarez9902
@marcosalvarez9902 Месяц назад
@@BicycleFunk Who are the neofascists? The democrats that elect their presidential nominee without a vote?
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
what do you mena kicked up to federal level?
@julioalmeida4645
@julioalmeida4645 Месяц назад
Congratz for the 100k. Well deserved
@hersdera
@hersdera Месяц назад
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
@HectorWhitney
@HectorWhitney Месяц назад
Hearing from an experienced investor who has survived adversity and prevailed is always motivating. It may be frightening when your portfolio goes from green to red, but if you have invested in strong firms, you should maintain growing them and stick to your goal.
@bernadofelix
@bernadofelix Месяц назад
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
@ScottKindle-bk3hx
@ScottKindle-bk3hx Месяц назад
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
@bernadofelix
@bernadofelix Месяц назад
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@KarenLavia
@KarenLavia Месяц назад
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
@penguins0003
@penguins0003 Месяц назад
Thank you for making these videos. I can't thank you enough. I don't participate in any markets, I just like watching and learning. Your videos help me feel comfortable enough to pursue business classes. Thank you.
@EPBResearch
@EPBResearch Месяц назад
Glad you like them!
@MorganBrown
@MorganBrown Месяц назад
Fascinating. Total debt up to 1980 had a steady floor 150% of gdp. Total debt from 2007 to present has a steady 350% floor. You didn’t really discuss the steady transition from 150% to 350% and its implications for how we got to where we are. 1982 to 2007 would appear to be the most benign period of “growth”, ignoring the tech bubble bursting. But total debt nearly tripled during that time! Thoughts?
@dimitris-stavrosandreadaki7437
@dimitris-stavrosandreadaki7437 Месяц назад
Greek here, this is the same thing that happened in Greece. Every EU and US government since the early 90 followed the same aversion to financial crisis and decided to keep inflating the economy and keeping kicking the can further down the line. That is mostly evident with the 2008 and 2020 financials crises where governments did not let allow actual defaults and decided to put a patch. Financial crises are devastating but a natural process that lets the economy hit a 'reset' button and start fresh.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
Because austerity leads to recession, and that leads to a collapse in tax revenue. When taxes fall, deficits grow. Budget surpluses don't get rid of the deficit, they just push the deficit from the government onto the private sector. The private sector can't sustain deficits so it eventually collapses, forcing up the deficit thanks to a combination of low tax revenues and unemployment benefits
@sebastiancioek5970
@sebastiancioek5970 Месяц назад
Public debt is also private debt - who pays it back, the people by paying taxes and inflation:-)
@maxpower5452
@maxpower5452 Месяц назад
Great video but idk that its ideal to be measuring things like Consumer Debt relative to GDP. It should instead be measured by net income of those consumers. Reasoning being just because GDP went up doesn't mean that peoples debt burden went down.
@austenmoore7326
@austenmoore7326 Месяц назад
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Multi family housing debt to gdp is up, but that doesn’t matter if multi family housing to multi family housing down or even neutral.
@O-Nsquared
@O-Nsquared Месяц назад
Question: If there was such an overbuilding in multi-family apartment, why does it feel like housing is now so expensive and hard to obtain? Just curious because other sources seem to say we didn't build enough housing.
@adamkral8110
@adamkral8110 Месяц назад
He only looked at debt and noted an increase. It was a relatively minor increase, so I’m not sure why he made it sound bad. We built more MF housing, and while inflation has increased rents for consumers, it also causes investors to hold those older low-interest loans rather than repay them. Those investors instead roll their new income into the next project to limit the amount of new high-interest loans needed.
@sinforoso2000
@sinforoso2000 Месяц назад
The government has made risk a myth the last 10 years via subsidizing the financial and housing sectors while they both engage in risky and shady practices. Yet the average american has seen their standard of living deteriorate via an increased expenditure to income ratio. The collective increase in shelter/groceries/utilities/vehicles dwarfing increases in pay. The dollar's devaluation while salaries fail to keep up is troubling.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Месяц назад
Exactly, profits stay private and ever consolidated into fewer hands, while all the unpayable debts and bad bets get silently whisked away onto the public balance sheet for "us" to absorb. The Romans would blush at this level of corr...
@BangMaster96
@BangMaster96 Месяц назад
Once you turn on the Money Printer, it is very addicting to keep it going and hard to turn it off. No body wants to go through hard financial times, no body wants to go broke, no body wants to work hard to actually make real income, the Government wants to print and spend Money, Businesses & People want to borrow and spend Money. It's all just borrowing from the future to spend in the present like drunken sailors. Someday, the chickens will come home to roost.
@mantanaman1944
@mantanaman1944 Месяц назад
Roost me bangmaster
@forsupernovae2401
@forsupernovae2401 Месяц назад
maybe u guys dont understand debt is money
@TruckerBod95
@TruckerBod95 Месяц назад
​@forsupernovae2401 yes debt is an asset for banks and the money they have on deposit is the there liability.
@colbyharrington6166
@colbyharrington6166 Месяц назад
Ever heard of unrealized losses? If banks sold their bills today, the system would go bust. The losses dwarf the GFC. Risk is higher than ever hence low end t bills rolled over 4x instead of you getting a home loan.
@jeffmorin5867
@jeffmorin5867 Месяц назад
@@forsupernovae2401 If somebody pissed on your head you'd think it was raining...
@Dederickgeorge
@Dederickgeorge Месяц назад
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer .
@Brucelanham845
@Brucelanham845 Месяц назад
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
@Nguyenvictory83
@Nguyenvictory83 Месяц назад
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
@DaveCulbertson
@DaveCulbertson Месяц назад
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
@Rodriguezpaul-9
@Rodriguezpaul-9 Месяц назад
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
@Scottweeier846
@Scottweeier846 Месяц назад
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery Glory to God shalom.
@jayworley1583
@jayworley1583 Месяц назад
As usual, great content, but I've never cared for any sort of comparison to GDP. GDP, over time, tends to rise without falling much or for very long before turning north again. This is especially true over the years since 2008. The bottom line is that overall HH debt is rising which is not something your presentation would suggest. Instead, it's a bait & switch. Since the end of 2020, HH debt has risen dramatically per the NY Fed. The upward slope is easily as high as it was in the 4-5 years leading up to 2008.
@aliiisalama
@aliiisalama Месяц назад
I think these are actually positive moves. A few key points: - overall debt has moved from riskier counterparties to significantly lower credit risk counterparties. That is a very good thing. In fact, the main increase is to the Federal Government who will never default. Household debt is way down, local government debt is down, these are counterparties that do regularly default. - "debt crisis" - Debt is only problematic if you cannot make the repayments. The current debt is issued at much lower rates than 1980 (so 150% Debt-to-GDP vs 351% now) the repayment now is still lower as %age of GDP. It would be interesting to see these same trends against the repayments. More broadly, debt is moving to lower interest rate products, a good thing in terms of defaults. However, the counter argument to that is that the overall long trend in debt is up because the opposite is true of interest rates. I imagine interest rates will go back to zero, then the debt repayment issue at least goes away for a while.
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
I don't think interest rates are going back to zero, nowhere close, as even Powell admits. 2008-2021 was literally the anomaly, not the norm.
@aliiisalama
@aliiisalama Месяц назад
@@MBarberfan4life the downtrend since 70s is the norm. 90% of last 15 years is zero. So it is at least going back to low numbers. Fed debt repayments are too high not too. Perhaps it will get to zero, perhaps they won’t. I think better chance it gets there, especially if Trump gets in, but we’ll have to wait and see. Powell always speaks to the current situation, as he should, his ‘forecasts’ are always proven wrong in time. He cannot come out now and say we are going to zero.
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
@@aliiisalama it isn't just Powell. If anything the fact that there has been a downtrend for the past 40 years is a red flag. The same red flag that led people to mistakenly believe we would never get high inflation again. Those trends are slow-moving, including the decades-long increase in rates before the time period you picked.
@WildDisease72
@WildDisease72 28 дней назад
Climbing debt will result in what? More climbing debt!!! Winning strategy 👐
@kolinboorom6868
@kolinboorom6868 Месяц назад
I don't understand how multifamily housing can be overbuilt, and deemed not good investments, yet many of our cities have housing shortfalls. How are both those things true?
@GuyIncognito764
@GuyIncognito764 Месяц назад
They built the wrong stuff. People can't afford it.
@alexlowe2054
@alexlowe2054 Месяц назад
They both contribute to each other. The housing shortfall from low inventory during the pandemic caused both home and rent prices (those multifamily apartments) to skyrocket. Apartments could charge insane prices for rent because there was no other option. Various investment companies bought up housing because they saw the low demand and knew prices would rise. But prices rose far too fast, and way too high. The current prices are unsustainable. Even if there's a housing shortfall, the of housing affordability is at its worst situation its been in during our modern records. That's a 100 year record in unaffordability. Consumers aren't buying houses at the current prices, because they can't afford to pay today's prices. It's no longer optional. Housing prices MUST come down relative to income. People simply can't pay for today's prices. That means someone is going to be left holding the giant bag of debt everyone used to build and buy housing. Everything is linked. Corporate debt didn't *just* go into multifamily apartments. Corporations also invested heavily in real estate in many cities, by using debt. When housing prices drop just a small bit, ~10-30% of investors will end up underwater in their mortgages, without enough assets to pay for their debt. Many of those smaller investors (local AirBnB) and a few medium sized investment companies (lots of them in Atlanta) and maybe one super large company will go bankrupt. Plus, many people who lose their jobs will be forced to sell their homes. That will instantly liquidate a large amount of inventory, temporarily driving prices down very quickly. That's the housing bubble popping. Which forces rental companies to drop prices to compete. No one wants to pay more for rent than it costs to buy a home. That's what will force many companies that own multifamily homes to declare bankruptcy. They'll be unable to charge enough rent to repay the loans they used to build the apartment in the first place. Eventually, long term trends will win out, and the cost of housing will start rising again. But just like the Pandemic drove prices up insanely quickly for a short period of time, the incoming recession and wave of corporate bankruptcies will drive prices down for a short period of time. The only other possible way to solve the housing unaffordability problem is for us to have to face 70s era inflation to bring wages in line with what people can pay for homes. But that's essentially stagflation, and it's not really better than a recession. We can sustain high levels of debt for a short time, until something happens to cause prices to drop slightly, which then causes the overleveraged sectors to collapse. Silicone Valley Bank's collapse early last year is an early taste of how quickly bad debt can cause bankruptcies. This isn't going to be a decade long change in housing trends. It's going to be a very messy and brutal year or two when prices suddenly crater, before slowly creeping up again.
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
Cantillon effects.
@T1000mileman
@T1000mileman Месяц назад
Excellent presentation Eric. I began following you on SA years ago and am delighted to see you on RU-vid.
@cyclingphilosopher8798
@cyclingphilosopher8798 Месяц назад
Excellent overview! Also makes me feel much more comfortable as my debt is only about 27% of my assets.
@HisCoconutGun
@HisCoconutGun Месяц назад
Debt doesn't matter because the government is going to inflate away our debt. What's more important is having hard, inflation-proof assets.
@GuyIncognito764
@GuyIncognito764 Месяц назад
Don't forget your share of federal debt that your fellow citizens dumped on you!
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
@@GuyIncognito764 not how it works. People don't have a "share" of the federal debt
@sahhaf1234
@sahhaf1234 26 дней назад
Yes, but the important questions are --how much interest is paid on this debt? --who are the creditors, ie, who receive the interest?
@user-ys5qp4bq4s
@user-ys5qp4bq4s Месяц назад
Hope you do one on interest payment/maturity profile. Makes a big difference per Minsky's definition of Speculative/Ponzi finance.
@mariusfacktor3597
@mariusfacktor3597 Месяц назад
8:41 "There was a huge overbuilding of multifamily apartments in the last 10-15 years" I don't think this is true. There was a massive UNDER building since the 1970s when cities made stringent land-use regulations that banned apartments. Today there is still a housing shortage in America's most important cities and apartments are badly needed as seen by record high rent prices. There is more debt because they are building more (still not even close to enough), but that will pay off over time as homes are badly needed.
@danielmrtns
@danielmrtns Месяц назад
So, the burning question: what’s the real-life implication of absurd federal government debt? I’d argue that we’ll never see tax revenue rise substantially to pay down that debt, while it is equally unlikely that the US federal government will cut back on social programs and military spending. Will the federal government issue debt for as long as there are investors willing to buy it? And what happens when that’s no longer the case - or, what might cause it to no longer be the case?
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
When investors don't buy the bonds, the Federal Reserve will buy the bonds. Which means inflation---default through inflation.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
@@MBarberfan4life the fed bought tonnes of debt after 2008, why was there no inflation or default? Japan is the king of buying back its own bonds, yet its dealing with deflation not inflaiton. You're making stuff up
@twistedbydsign99
@twistedbydsign99 Месяц назад
Wealth Tax, Cut social programs, forgo Treasury auctions and have fed directly buy at low rates from fedgov. What are they going to pick? are there other options?
@nyquil762
@nyquil762 Месяц назад
Cut social programs? The DOD is the largest single expense category.
@BicycleFunk
@BicycleFunk Месяц назад
If the US as a whole recognizes the problem, then we should accept that a combination of higher taxes and more effective spending is require to fix the issue. That said, what would the US and world look like if we traded debts?
@dirk.no-whisky.4u
@dirk.no-whisky.4u Месяц назад
Incredible level of research and presentation, guys! Subscribed from the very first video i came across, and have not been disappointed
@Astroman89
@Astroman89 Месяц назад
National debt can be paid off if we simply pay back treasury securities with US Notes and destroy an equivalent amount of federal reserve notes. US Notes are still legal tender and are issued free of debt.
@lberhold
@lberhold Месяц назад
We need to cut social programs/entitlements. Entitlements are 4x the outlays of the defense budget. Entitlements of that size are unsustainable.
@kchal0
@kchal0 Месяц назад
This is an interesting video. I think another interesting video topic would be the flip side of this, debt is a 2 way street. It’s a liability for one party but an asset for another. Since 2/3 of the US debt is owed to Americans, id like to know how paying it back would effect people’s retirement accounts and pension funds. Part of me wonders if there were less demand for US debt if they would stop offering it but that’s another discussion. Right now it’s still seen as a safe haven, with all asset prices being benchmarked against it.
@JC-kb2qg
@JC-kb2qg Месяц назад
Make the same video with the shadow debt combined problem in china, it’s mind boggling!
@richardracine9055
@richardracine9055 22 дня назад
Outstanding presentation. Thank you.
@edwardjoseph8007
@edwardjoseph8007 Месяц назад
One question to ask is how did the private sector deleverage? Was the debt actually paid off, or was it passed off to the federal government thru things like bailouts?
@staspastukov5944
@staspastukov5944 11 дней назад
I was watching a video about the Middle East, and below was a video with your screensaver. I thought that maybe this is the attitude of business, government, and students in the US towards Israel.
@jerryrichardson2799
@jerryrichardson2799 Месяц назад
Thanks for another in depth video and acknowledging a lot of private debt became federal debt. I don't have much debt. I pay rent and have a new car that I got a fairly good deal on, I paid a little over $19, 000 for it. I owe less than $12,000 on it now.
@GuyIncognito764
@GuyIncognito764 Месяц назад
You have lots of federal debt. That's how they tricked you.
@jerryrichardson2799
@jerryrichardson2799 Месяц назад
​​@@GuyIncognito764As per my original comment, I know, but I'm in my early 60s and due to become a debt in a few more years.
@xiaoranmo7308
@xiaoranmo7308 25 дней назад
Consider institution like mutual fund who manage people 401K is the biggest holder of US treasury and municipal bond, in the sense the money US government borrow directly from is US private sector, does it really matter how high the public debt rise? Since all the obligation, interest payment is directly receive by US private sector, like shift money from left hand to right hand. Great US debt intro by the way, keep the good work. :)
@perusingposts2557
@perusingposts2557 Месяц назад
On Corporate and Non-Corporate Business Classifications: "Non-Corporate" is a misnomer. Millions upon millions of Limited Liability Companies (and Partnerships) are OWNED by corporations. This is particularly true in housing, both single family and multi-family housnig (which includes mobile home parks, where the consumer owns the structure). The debt held by those corporations operating LLCs IS corporate debt, not "non-corporate" debt.
@Valaens
@Valaens Месяц назад
Great video. I would love to see the same for Italy and Europe in general
@rodhonco5681
@rodhonco5681 Месяц назад
Isn’t that something? Government can print money to sustain itself while the Private Sector chokes on those increased Taxes and Regulations. Everyone has to wonder how much longer the Public can take this beating/burden!
@TheEraLad
@TheEraLad Месяц назад
Love how you broke this down for us
@ZoomedOut2020
@ZoomedOut2020 Месяц назад
How far can anyone trust any of the data placed in front of the public…?? That goes for either the numerators or denominators in this discussion as well….
@nyquil762
@nyquil762 Месяц назад
Nailed it
@gustavrodewald3654
@gustavrodewald3654 Месяц назад
It seems paradoxical that we have hit records in the ratio of median home price to median income (7.7 now vs 6.8 prior to the "great recession"), yet we have somehow deleveraged on mortgage debt.
@leifefrancisco7316
@leifefrancisco7316 Месяц назад
I don't know a lot about this subject but I don't understand how there can be too much multi family debt and a shortage of affordable housing/apartments. I guess they overbuilt luxury apartments?
@iBeo01
@iBeo01 Месяц назад
The debt situation is important but I like to look at the USs credit score and I think we’re doing pretty good even with all this leverage.
@BakoSooner
@BakoSooner Месяц назад
We can't even service the interest on the national debt. But people want more social services and our government is still spending like drunken sailors. This just seems to be train wreck coming.
@HisCoconutGun
@HisCoconutGun Месяц назад
Austerity is wildly unpopular so government will inevitably print money to pay this debt and we will return to inflation and maybe even get hyperinflation.
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
Not hyperinflation, but it will be high inflation for a long time. That's what happened during WW1 and WW2. And why wouldn't the Fed print money, when most of the population is incorrectly blaming everything and everyone else (e.g. corporate greed, Putin, etc.)?
@Dan16673
@Dan16673 Месяц назад
​@MBarberfan4life the fed has to buy the bonds if no one else will. They cannot say no
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
@@Dan16673 they will, and that's my point---I agree. They are supposed to have a mandate to promote stable prices. There's no point in having a supposed independent central bank if they are just going to be a credit card for Congress. That's 3rd world country crap.
@Dan16673
@Dan16673 Месяц назад
@@MBarberfan4life agree. Logic doesn't follow. Like most empires, the American one will be short lived
@Romogi
@Romogi Месяц назад
The main thing I learned from these graphs is that I really wish I had been born earlier so I could have been becoming an adult in the 1950s.
@stefnirk
@stefnirk Месяц назад
Great video; I'm definitely becoming a subscriber. But what is just as important is debt payment to GDP. If debt is the same level as GDP but interest rates are 50% higher, it's not the same situation. Yes, it's more complex since much of the debt has fixed low interest rates, but many businesses and public debt constantly need to refinance at newer interest rates.
@aaronpeters6209
@aaronpeters6209 Месяц назад
Request ... Analysis of federal interest payments and rates relative to federal revenues. I think nothing will substantial will happen with trying to reduce federal debt until interest paid on the debt is out of control. Wondering when that will be when considering other factors - even that is a tall order - like healthcare/medicare spending, future interest rates, expected federal revenues, etc. Essentially, where could the blowup points be? As interest paid on debt is projected to be about 18-19% in 2024. Maybe even try to gauge how detrimental a longer term large scale war with the BRICS would be?
@orsonbradford3457
@orsonbradford3457 Месяц назад
i don’t understand how to think about debt. it seems to be cast as a negative most of the time. But isn’t debt a zero sum phenomenon ? There is a creditor and a debtor, and the money flows between them, remaining neutral overall. It could be bad for either party if the terms and outcome of that debt are not good for them, but then the other party should do well, right? or could the relationship be bad for both somehow? Say the overall wealth consists of a bunch of beans and money tokens representing those beans. The tokens and the beans move through the economy and balances of private and government entities ebb and flow. But what impacts the total number of beans? it doesn’t seem like debt would matter at all. Maybe where it does matter is how it affects the behavior of the players causing them to increase or decrease the real wealth by being creative or destructive with those real beans (not the tokens which only have a virtual existence).
@edwardmitchell6581
@edwardmitchell6581 Месяц назад
It makes sense that we have an housing affordability problem when muilti-family is not affordable. Is there a way UBI could be implemented without increase Federal debt? If low wage earners had a stable base income, multi-family wouldn't have to deal with as many late payments.
@JoselitoBurrito
@JoselitoBurrito Месяц назад
So basically, same as 2007 but cutting out the company saving process because it was already done printing money instead of taxing more. So the taxpayer will always lose purchasing power because of companies over leveraging. Awesome.
@JoselitoBurrito
@JoselitoBurrito Месяц назад
But hey, at least we're not China... Over there they let the companies go bankrupt if they have terrible debt practices
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Месяц назад
That's right, that's why there hasn't been a recession in 15 years and counting. The bad debts now all magically end up on "our" tab without any consequences at all to the debtor. But the profits stay private of course.
@adeebihabibi
@adeebihabibi Месяц назад
I don't doubt the debt is a huge problem. I thought we were crashing a long time ago. That said, these kinds of videos don't show the entire picture. Debt is higher, but your money is worth at least half of what it was in 2007, so this isn't adjusted for inflation especially if you're comparing to GDP. Also, a lot of this debt may be at lower rates.
@pristinedetailing5171
@pristinedetailing5171 Месяц назад
Wow!!! My hat off to the student debt borrowers who kicked it into gear and paid off all that debt in just 4 years, remarkable!!!
@ytqclys
@ytqclys Месяц назад
Why is there high rent inflation if apartments are overbuilt?
@geigertec5921
@geigertec5921 Месяц назад
This explains why gold is 2500 now, people getting ready.
@michaelayeni177
@michaelayeni177 Месяц назад
Along as those calls keep printing its all good!
@davehugunin770
@davehugunin770 Месяц назад
Solid work - Congratulations on 100K Subscribers !!
@crickett6519
@crickett6519 Месяц назад
Three things you’re missing number one the federal reserve owns about on 1/3 of all mortgages so mortgage that really hasn’t gone down. Number two were running $2 trillion deficits so what is the real GDP if you go to non-government spending/. gdp is smaller percentage than in 2007
@crickett6519
@crickett6519 Месяц назад
we’re heading to a great depression not recession
@whatwherethere
@whatwherethere Месяц назад
Who owns the debt? Debt is always someone else's asset.
@yopyop3241
@yopyop3241 Месяц назад
According to the video, 17% is owned by foreign people and institutions. That leaves 83% held by American people and institutions. Also according to the video, the biggest debtor is the federal government. The biggest holders of US federal government debt are the Social Security Trust Fund and the Federal Reserve. The biggest foreign holders are close US allies like Japan and Ireland. It has been in the news lately that China has been selling off its holdings. The next biggest debtor is US businesses. The holders of that debt are wherever US businesses get business loans from. The next biggest debtor is US households, mostly via home mortgages. The holders of that debt are wherever US homeowners get home loans from. The last really big debtor is the US financial sector. The holders of that debt are wherever US investment banks get loans from. If anyone can provide additional insight into the “wherever XXXXX get loans from” details, it would be much appreciated.
@garrettw5143
@garrettw5143 Месяц назад
Really nice video, I certainly learned some things. I think you can improve in plot readability and taking more time to define things like multi-family or 1-4 family debt to increase accessibility of the video. Also explaining why some things are good or bad would be helpful, since most of the video is just numbers. This was my first video of yours I've seen and i plan to continue watching.
@SimonAndersen21
@SimonAndersen21 Месяц назад
Thanks for the great data! Although I’m not sure multi family housing is being over built now, I’d argue it was being under built for a long time. The US is short about 4.5 million housing units, and building more multi family housing is a good way to bring housing costs down by increasing the housing supply.
@lainiwakura44
@lainiwakura44 Месяц назад
An excellent overview. The only observation is that public debt will likely be kicked down the road for quite a long time, through inflation and easing, delaying a recession for years.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
it will be kicked down the road forever, its not supposed to be paid off. Its supposed to exist as peoples savings
@lainiwakura44
@lainiwakura44 22 дня назад
@@grimaffiliations3671 No debt can be kicked down the road forever. Decades is a generational duration, but is not forever.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 22 дня назад
@@lainiwakura44 That claim relies on the idea that taxes will have to go up in the future to pay for the national debt, but that's completely wrong for two main reasons. The first one being, the debt isn't paid for by taxes, it's paid for by simply rolling over any bonds that come due. The government rolled over 120 TRILLION dollars worth of bonds in 2021 alone. That's trillion with a T. The idea that taxes could ever cover that amount in silly. They can do this forever because they control the currency our debt is denominated in.
@Millerj2450
@Millerj2450 8 дней назад
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
@Alex_will12
@Alex_will12 8 дней назад
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
@Pat_laura22
@Pat_laura22 8 дней назад
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over a million dollars.
@DorothyWalker-l2y
@DorothyWalker-l2y 8 дней назад
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
@Pat_laura22
@Pat_laura22 8 дней назад
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like “Jessica Lee Horst” who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@williamsscott3303
@williamsscott3303 8 дней назад
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
@huntertomlin3909
@huntertomlin3909 Месяц назад
Crossed 35 trillion on Friday July 26th 2024
@junkbucket50
@junkbucket50 Месяц назад
8:04 what happened in 2015 to cause the student debt to spike so heavily?
@CalebStalder-qp4fb
@CalebStalder-qp4fb Месяц назад
Hold up Debt increased by 23% in last 4 years. Inflation up +20% in last 4 years. Almost like those 2 are tied together
@Ayo22210
@Ayo22210 Месяц назад
For student debt instead of four-year universities, students should look to community colleges and get a trade or a tech skill. Tech Ed should be the focus going forward.
@nicolas393
@nicolas393 Месяц назад
really enjoy these videos, ty
@EPBResearch
@EPBResearch Месяц назад
Thanks for watching!
@We_Must_Resist
@We_Must_Resist Месяц назад
We are back to 2007, just before the crisis. We are just before a crisis. Get ready.
@quietus13
@quietus13 Месяц назад
What do you think will be the catalyst?
@We_Must_Resist
@We_Must_Resist Месяц назад
@@quietus13 Between Election day November and Inauguration day January. All the pent up hostility and negativity will be released in a flood of nastiness. The new President will have to deal with the failures of the past. The Old Guard will stop trying to hold back the flood, or they will say they do not have authority to do so. Apres moi le deluge. (After me the flood).
@kalobrogers235
@kalobrogers235 Месяц назад
I wish social security & Medicare would have been secluded and highlighted, great video.
@donchaput8278
@donchaput8278 Месяц назад
Looks like we need less tax cutting and more federal debt reduction. Have to stop using Uncle Sam's credit card. Costs way more to pay for it later than fund it now.
@amsd1231
@amsd1231 Месяц назад
Seeing as how the average Americans spend money that they don't have and struggles to pay interest on their credit cards, I wouldn't count on the US government changing its way any time soon unless the change is forced upon it. In a way the government perfectly represents its citizens.
@Dan16673
@Dan16673 Месяц назад
We should tax like we spend Maybe then people.might vote differently
@davideyres955
@davideyres955 Месяц назад
Fantastic video. Wish you could do the same analysis on the UK economy.
@ArchieJohnson5h
@ArchieJohnson5h Месяц назад
The level of inefficiency and corruption in this administration is becoming absurd. Those who are disabled and do not receive the support to which they are legally entitled make me sad. I sincerely thank you, Leah Foster Alderman. Imagine making $6k in four days with an investment of $1.5k.
@RhysHuntoffice
@RhysHuntoffice Месяц назад
That woman transformed my entire life for the better. Among the folks I've met, Leah appears to be the most trustworthy. I'm surprised you know her as well.
@FreemanJameZ
@FreemanJameZ Месяц назад
I've noticed a lot of people talking about Leah, she must be amazing for everyone to be saying so many wonderful things about her.
@FreemanJameZ
@FreemanJameZ Месяц назад
Please tell me how I can get her help because I'm new to this.
@ArchieJohnson5h
@ArchieJohnson5h Месяц назад
"Leah Foster Alderman"
@FreemanJameZ
@FreemanJameZ Месяц назад
Got it. Thank you so much for this useful information.
@yopyop3241
@yopyop3241 Месяц назад
This is only part of the story. It is also critical to know the value of what was purchased with this debt. Borrowing money can be a good thing if the money is used well. I believe the general consensus is that the federal government has been riding a streak of very effective use of debt. The 2008 bailout money saved entire sectors of the US economy. Obamacare has more than paid for itself. The Biden infrastructure spending is expected to go a long way towards preventing extremely expensive catastrophes like collapsed bridges and tunnels. In contrast, the private sector was the source of the bad debt that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, tax cuts (which run up public debt to put more money in private hands) have had nothing but disappointing results since the 1990s.
@sudo2998
@sudo2998 Месяц назад
Thanks for the great research! It looks a lot better than I imagined. So basically, if the government gets its act together, we can maybe survive this. Given that the monetary basis has been increasing, can we sustain the ability to make our payments going forward?
@joshchild
@joshchild Месяц назад
Love this content! You are almost at 100k subscribers! Way to go!
@joshchild
@joshchild Месяц назад
I've been around since you started the channel!
@EddieChamo
@EddieChamo Месяц назад
It's incorrect to say there's "Overbuilding" in multi-family homes because the US has had a severe lack of that type of housing. The reason why it's gone up is because there has been a huge push to build more of that type of housing. That's why the debt has increased.
@AntoinePirard
@AntoinePirard Месяц назад
So well explained!
@freesk8
@freesk8 Месяц назад
Wow! Great analysis! Great data! Thanks! :)
@seeranos
@seeranos Месяц назад
Your conclusion that multi-family mortgage debt is overheating comes with very little context, and i don’t believe it. Increased building of apartments is occurring where housing is in low supply. Leveraging now to meet a demand that will pay dividends long term is 101 good financial advice.
@skygge1006
@skygge1006 Месяц назад
There is also a shift in favorability of people liking multi-family homes. Not to the point that a majority of the country would choose it but a larger portion of the country would be willing to live in an urban area and thus it makes sense that more multi-family homes are built and that would create the increase in multi-family debt that he showed.
@asknwclips7672
@asknwclips7672 Месяц назад
query whether state and local debt relatively lower because of federal funds substitution?
@td000
@td000 Месяц назад
when does it break
@Mike-rp6lb
@Mike-rp6lb Месяц назад
Great presentation. That said there is a problem with your denominator, which makes things look incorrectly rosy. The portion of the GDP that produces real goods and services that build wealth and can be exported to earn a surplus and pay off debt has shrank considerably over the yeras. For example, government borrowing significantly inflates GDP, this portion of GDP obviously is not available to service debt. likewise for much of the FIRE sectors, health care, education, etc. When you look at the BLS GDP breakdown you find our GDP is divided into rough thirds. one third is productive activities, one third is overhead activities, and one third is parasitic activities. only productive activities can produce a surplus that builds wealth and can be used to service debt. So like every other time in history in the end they will print and destroy the currency value. it will either be orderly or disorderly.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
all of the gdp is good and builds wealth, whether or not it comes about through borrowing. Government deficits = private sector surpluses
@Mike-rp6lb
@Mike-rp6lb 29 дней назад
@@grimaffiliations3671 100% wrong. What would happen if every country's government believed this, they paid great wages and employ half the people to dig holes and the other half to fill them in. GDP soars around the world. Is this good and building wealth? obviously not, with no real production everyone would be impoverished and die. whether 100%, 90%, or today's approx. 30% of GDP, The degree of relative impoverishment only varies with the percent of "GDP" that isn't involved in producing an actual useful good or service that people need to live.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 29 дней назад
@@Mike-rp6lb Deficit spending is captured by the private sector, this raises aggregate demand and fuels further growth. Without deficit spending the private sector is forced to net borrow (go into deficit) And as history will tell you, the economy doesn't survive long when the private sector goes into deficit
@Mike-rp6lb
@Mike-rp6lb 29 дней назад
@@grimaffiliations3671 This is a way of looking at the economy through accounting identities while missing the big picture. Money is not wealth, it is simply a tool to determine allocation of resources. Focusing on demand is misguided. There is always demand for needed goods and services, the problem, which creates trade deficits and a hollowed out US economy is lack of production. On paper the egg heads see nothing wrong with a hollowed out economy, but completely ruin has only be staved off by the artificial demand for US dollars globally. This is ending. Government (deficit) spending exacerbates these problem.
@AbbeyRoad69147
@AbbeyRoad69147 Месяц назад
Please do a video on repayments.
@KC-ub1mt
@KC-ub1mt Месяц назад
Awesome breakdown!
@nirvaanmeharchand5896
@nirvaanmeharchand5896 Месяц назад
Excellent work - thank you.
@EPBResearch
@EPBResearch Месяц назад
Our pleasure!
@MichaelChengSanJose
@MichaelChengSanJose Месяц назад
So what are your unvarnished thoughts?
@templemark1010
@templemark1010 Месяц назад
Which party in Nov has a better path to fixing this?
@MBarberfan4life
@MBarberfan4life Месяц назад
Hard to say. Nobody has done anything about since Clinton and Gingrich tackled it
@saltywings41
@saltywings41 Месяц назад
You say the economy hasn't deleveraged but we have had massive inflation, which is literally the economy deleveraging. We literally had to spend after COVID so we didn't get in another recession... Deficit spending literally has no correlation to hurting consumers at this point and you don't use any metrics to support that assumption, you even admit private sector debt is in a good spot.
@AustinIsTheGreatests
@AustinIsTheGreatests Месяц назад
How about corporations shouldn't be allowed to own homes!!!
@gabrielmartinez2455
@gabrielmartinez2455 Месяц назад
The private sector debt got bailed out by the government. Privatized profits socialized debt.
@Dan16673
@Dan16673 Месяц назад
Pretty much. Welcome to central banking
@TheTmac51
@TheTmac51 Месяц назад
The people “running” the country are criminals and should be held accountable
@jimsummers487
@jimsummers487 Месяц назад
DJT will leapfrog 50trillion …. Now that’s paying it off !
@nicolasgirard2808
@nicolasgirard2808 Месяц назад
Republicans gloat that DJT was so great for the economy but in reality he just deficit spent. Same with Biden. Easy to grow the GDP when you fake it with debt
@n4870s
@n4870s Месяц назад
why is multi family debt not good? It is apartment buildings and rents. Why is it bad if ppl are poor they will rent apartments.
@ILovePancakes24
@ILovePancakes24 Месяц назад
I think we'll be OK
@DrLusEnglish
@DrLusEnglish Месяц назад
100T is what you will see!
Далее
These 3 Indicators Predict Every Recession
9:22
Просмотров 44 тыс.
National Debt Crisis Will Destroy The USA
8:42
Просмотров 428 тыс.
A Minecraft Movie | Teaser
01:20
Просмотров 26 млн
If Germany Is Rich,  Why Are Germans Poor and Angry?
18:01
Reviewing My Entire $700,000 Stock Portfolio
37:35
Просмотров 41 тыс.
What a Deglobalized Economy Will Look Like
22:20
Просмотров 393 тыс.
This Signal Flashed "Recession" For 22 Months Straight
12:32
How To Avoid Paying Tax On Your Savings Interest
15:35
Просмотров 156 тыс.
Why Everyone Is Quitting The 40 Hour Work Week
17:18
Просмотров 1,1 млн
Do This EVERY Time You Get Paid (Paycheck Routine)
17:20
A Minecraft Movie | Teaser
01:20
Просмотров 26 млн