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This Won't End Well... 

Bravos Research
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29 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 972   
@ninjacats1647
@ninjacats1647 Год назад
To be fair, the price of sugar rising is probably a good thing for human health and wellbeing. Getting people off sugar is a top priority for nutritionists and some doctors.
@amnobody117
@amnobody117 Год назад
🙄 i still want cheap sugar 😂😂
@tkzii6207
@tkzii6207 Год назад
people need to be responsible for their health
@cicatrace
@cicatrace Год назад
True, but too much of anything is bad. Nutrition is about diversifying
@nopeunlimited
@nopeunlimited Год назад
Cocaine will be cheaper soon. same same but different 🤷‍♂️
@gabrielw7773
@gabrielw7773 Год назад
Anything that spikes insilin.
@relajad0
@relajad0 Год назад
the reason for the second wave was because the fed let loose on interest rates too early. the fed in present day said they would not make the same mistake and that's why they're keeping interest rates higher for longer.
@tatebowman2700
@tatebowman2700 Год назад
And you trust the fed?
@unknownz1238
@unknownz1238 Год назад
@@tatebowman2700 and you don't trust the people with the entire balanced records of the U.S.A. at their hands and a team of international P.hD economist? By all means it's okay if you don't trust the government but all I believe is that they're the most capable team.
@slow-moe3518
@slow-moe3518 Год назад
@@unknownz1238 Randos on RU-vid have way more knowledge and skills. If we gave the reins of the US economy to all those RU-vidrs blaming the Fed they would turn it around and make America great again. /s
@tsunglasses7
@tsunglasses7 Год назад
@@unknownz1238you’ve got to be delusional to trust the US Federal Reserve after the major policy mistakes they’ve been making ever since their “transitory” statements.
@lijiang5600
@lijiang5600 Год назад
@@unknownz1238 I believe they are some of the smartest alive, but smart people are smart in maximizing gains for themselves and don't always choose to do what's best for everyone.
@dsfgkasguyrebfv
@dsfgkasguyrebfv Год назад
The reason it has been difficult to call a recession is because of the helicopter money printed. This distorts the economy and can delay a recession that was supposed to take place.
@steve_m2473
@steve_m2473 Год назад
Right, and the proxy metric for when it runs out is not really consumer savings accounts as much any more, since less of it was in consumers' hands to begin with. It still means something, but it may not mean exactly the same thing it did for previous decades.
@jcschwarb
@jcschwarb Год назад
The issue is GDP shold strip out government spending as it shows up as a double booking.
@Iwo26
@Iwo26 Год назад
It is coming... 2025/2026 will not be pretty.......
@Dialectic42
@Dialectic42 Год назад
The problem is that politicians have picked up on the fact that the economy is the single most important issue to voters, so whoever is in power will do whatever it takes to delay a recession, regardless of whatever disastrous effects will happen down the line.
@doomdrake123
@doomdrake123 Год назад
Well no. Recession is function of GDP. GDP can be measured in volumes, not money, and usually is measured inflation adjusted.
@1101-f6z
@1101-f6z Год назад
You have to take in consideration that these spikes are just a rebound from 2020. Nothing can be compared to 2020 statistically because we've never completely close the economy down before.
@nommchompsky
@nommchompsky Год назад
Exactly my thoughts. We need to be suspicious of anyone who says "this number has done blah blah since 2020" while doomsdaying about the economy
@BigHotSauceBoss69
@BigHotSauceBoss69 Год назад
how does this argument explain 100 years of the dollar losing purchasing power, which is now clearly being magnified by this "spike" ?
@davidscbirdsall
@davidscbirdsall 16 дней назад
The economy wasn’t completely close down in 2020. Only part of the US economy was closed. Democrat Governors Walz, Pritzker, Cuomo/Hochul, and Newsome forced the closure of Minnesota, Illinois, New York, and California, the 4th largest economy in the world for 2 years. This instantly forced the permanent closure of thousands of businesses and millions of jobs in those Blue States. Some Blue Cities in red states also forced similar closures. Red States stayed open to continue to create all the necessities and taxes the Blue States and Blue Cities lived on for 2 years.
@kaitlyncranwick
@kaitlyncranwick Год назад
MSFT down 40k, AAPL down 35k, Draft Kings down 6k, NIO down 15K, AMZN down 8k, and my wife doesn’t know. I'm just hanging on to Jim Cramer's words about opportunities in volatile times so perhaps, I either wait for a recovery or pick profitable investments to substitute for my loss
@maggysterling33254
@maggysterling33254 Год назад
Same boat man, lost $230k in trading this pass year, regret a lot and have not told my wife.
@kocn53
@kocn53 7 месяцев назад
Here's what I was doing almost 5 months ago, given that the mkt often makes a low point in the Fall. (1) From 7/31/23 to 10/27/23, S&P 500 dropped 10%. (2) Found all times since 1946 when a drop of 7% or more occurred in this interval. There were 8. (3) In every case, within a year (sometimes a lot less) a bull mkt had started. Now read Ecclesiastes 1::9 (KJV). I hope you held on.
@kocn53
@kocn53 7 месяцев назад
Don't watch talking heads, do your own research. And forget individual stocks. The long term trends of an index are a lot easier to understand and follow than the volatility of individual stocks.
@ondaterraquea9192
@ondaterraquea9192 11 месяцев назад
You're never right, man. It gets exhausting. Market is not going to tank. Leave it, please.
@Gary65437
@Gary65437 Год назад
Powell looks at that 1970's chart of inflation a lot. He will be slow to cut rates this time. That was a great housing price chart. I built a new 1,600 sq ft brick house in 1983 for a mortgage cost of 68,000. that was cheap even with rates at 10 and 11%. I feel bad for anyone wanting to buy a house nowadays, just insane inflation damage. Great Depression already here.
@getinthespace7715
@getinthespace7715 Год назад
We are moving this next month. Rather than buy a massively overpriced home, I'm renting for a year, buying property and building my own house. I can save $250k or about 50% by building. The housing market is completely broken where I'm moving.
@Beerdwolf
@Beerdwolf Год назад
I built one in 2020, 3400 sq ft 640k - 2% interest. Today the mortgage would be more than double. Bank texts me every day asking me to refinance, value is 1mil, I have so much cash available now! Trying to convince people to refinance into a 400% interest rate increase should be illegal.
@Gary65437
@Gary65437 Год назад
@@Beerdwolf Good job, banks jacking up credit card rates to 20%+ should also be illegal. JPM had record earnings every quarter with jacked up rates paying nothing on your savings acc. Banks also hate having low 3% mortgage loans of their books. They want the new 7.6% loans...lol
@sas1352
@sas1352 Год назад
@@Gary65437lucky you. In Russia we have 22,3% bank interests on any credits, except mortgage and 7-15% on mortgage, depending on bank and conditions. So the flat that costs 200k$ in the end will cost us around 500k$, if buy with mortgage.
@nicolascardenas6441
@nicolascardenas6441 Год назад
Thanks a lot for the video!! Can you do one about that 70's decade in terms of what asset classes were favored and which ones underperformed given the high inflation period?
@ramses1393
@ramses1393 Год назад
Oil did well
@larschi90
@larschi90 Год назад
There is one thing you can learn from history, one cannot use the past to predict the future. The world is totally different from the 70's.
@loweshaw
@loweshaw Год назад
I get where you are coming from but with enough time I think you will see that things are not as different as they seem in this area
@PureAwesomeMess
@PureAwesomeMess 5 месяцев назад
Your statement contradicts the sciences. "Scientific Law" summarizes past observations and predicts future ones. 😊
@budfox
@budfox Год назад
Do you stats of what did wages do for the same time period when home prices went from $22k in 1970- 66k in 1982? Would be interesting to know if wages lagged , but by how much and what asset class kept pace with inflation or even better beat it. That way we could predict which asset class to hold on to or buy more .
@resresres1
@resresres1 Год назад
With just a little research. Yearly average income in 1970 was ~$10k. An average costing home from 1970 is $22k, which is only 2.2 times the yearly income. Current US average yearly income is $60k. Current US average house cost is ~$420k. This is 7 times! the yearly income. 1970; 2.2x the yearly income vs 2023; 7x the yearly income. YIKES! obviously wages have not kept with the inflation of housing. Luckily, I had the wherewithal to buy my house in 2015, before housing prices completely recovered from the recession of 2008 and was able to buy my house for 3.5x my yearly income at the time.
@HepCatJack
@HepCatJack Год назад
@@resresres1there were a number of abandoned houses in Detroit and other cities of the rust belt that were demolished. It may be more efficient if future houses could be easily dismantled and moved to where they are needed instead of destroying the old ones (or leaving them to decay) and building the new ones. When mining and sawmill towns close, they just sit empty and unused. Maybe a REIT would be interested in managing such assets, dismantling the houses in the towns that are emptying moving them to a boom towns where they are needed.
@resresres1
@resresres1 Год назад
@@HepCatJack those houses are demolished because they are in such a bad state of disrepair that it would cost more to fix it up than just building a new one. You can't move a house that is in a bad state of disrepair. There is probably merit in dismantling the house to get the usable items from it so that the next house can spend less on materials (which they may already be doing that), but that's about all that can be done. On a side note, to truly reduce housing prices, you have to: 1). Open up the land for developers, instead of state/local governments limiting land usage in the name of achieving artificial population density goals. 2) reduce permit fees and regulations 3) lower taxes related to building the house 4) create incentives for developers and/or programs for manufacturers of the materials for houses (such as lumber) to be able to reduce prices on the raw material. No state/local governments will do this though, mostly because of woke reasons. They don't want to lose their income from fees nor reduce their grip on regulations of the industry. All they do is try to create subsidized "affordable housing", which has shown time and time again to not actually work.
@zachmeadows9206
@zachmeadows9206 Год назад
​@@HepCatJackI mean, you basically described what mobile homes are. They come with flaws, issues, and stigmas as well.
@HepCatJack
@HepCatJack Год назад
@@zachmeadows9206 do not confuse them with mobile homes. It used to be that you could order a prefab house from Sears and you would assemble it once delivered. Mining companies use pre-fab homes that are shipped to the middle of nowhere all o the time. Real houses not Aluminum boxes on wheels.
@smellybox309
@smellybox309 Год назад
The effects of artificially controlling the economy are going to be devastating.
@JWelsh07
@JWelsh07 Год назад
The economy is a set of markets that have to be established by human beings with rules made up by and enforced by governments. There no such thing a natural economy. It's all always "artificially controlled."
@trippe2k
@trippe2k Год назад
Thats their plan.
@jimmahr.4665
@jimmahr.4665 Год назад
We are in recession, and for a while now. The only way it's not one officially is if they are manipulating books, and they nEveR do ThAt. Dry vans died over a year ago, a lot of trucking companies already went out of business. Reefers are way down run for chump change, and few weeks ago open decks completely crapped out. It's parking lot time. Thinking about "winterizing" mine now, no point of being out there.
@maxwellOk
@maxwellOk Год назад
Since Biden took office, there seem to have been more unfavorable results in America. These results include effects on the markets, such as price declines and sharp increases in inflation, as well as bank failures. I wonder if the sudden increase in interest rates will help value investors or if it would be wiser to stay away from the stock and financial markets for the time being.
@andrewlogan7737
@andrewlogan7737 Год назад
Take a risk. It will ultimately be beneficial. However, investors should move cautiously given the current bull market. To achieve your growth goals and prevent errors, it is advised that you seek the assistance of a trained counselor. Stock prices frequently decrease as interest rates increase.
@danieljackson87
@danieljackson87 Год назад
I truly enjoy having a portfolio coach to help me make market judgments on a daily basis. They possess a special combination of abilities that enable them to take both long and short positions, benefiting from the possibility of significant gains while also safeguarding against downward turns. Additionally, they have access to exclusive knowledge and research that virtually guarantees they will outperform. I've had a portfolio coach for more than two years, and throughout that time I've actually earned over $300k. It was a wonderful experience!
@danieljackson87
@danieljackson87 Год назад
I've avoided all of the problems that the volatile market brings. Nowadays, the best way to enter the market is to read, research, be patient, and seek advice when necessary. Because I am unable to manage my portfolio due to my line of work, I simply imitate the moves of Julie Anne Hoover, a CFA, whom I watched on Bloomberg Business News. Everything has been simple since then.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 Год назад
You have no idea how any of this work. Which is why if you are in the market you are going to lose all your money. NO admisnration has any effect on oil prices PERIOD. That is done on a market... futures market to be exact. The American public has been getting screwed by our government for over 50 years. FDR, Nixon, Greenspan, Bernakie... these are the 4 people you need to blame for our inflation issue. Trump and Biden were just dropping cherries on top. If you don't understand why I say these things. I implore you to read books on economics, financial markets, investing, and trading. To make a blanket statement like you did is easy... but it is not correct.. this is not how this stuff works. But really it doesn't matter anymore.... once the 10 year hits 5% EVERYONE will wonder what happen and most likely blame Biden which is going not correct. It took us 50 years to get here. The can has been kicked down the road for too long. We are out of road. For what I see and the 8th grade math I have done we are going to get a five times worse event than the GFC. So we will be in a Depression and we deserve every bit of what is coming to us.
@ThePhukst1k
@ThePhukst1k Год назад
If you think Biden has had a dramatic affect on anything you’d really be better off dumping all your cash you’re holding into index’s and go play golf. Forget all this, you’re wasting your time. This translates to your decision paralysis on interest rates as well. Have a good day.
@nrik7
@nrik7 Год назад
recessions are part of economic cycles, we can't avoid them forever at the risk of creating even bigger ones
@anthonycekic4509
@anthonycekic4509 Год назад
Yes, that's what the safety nets of the New Deal were meant to help with workers during the downturns.
@Crossfirev
@Crossfirev Год назад
Why have a recession when you can print money to delay one happening until the dollar is worth zero and then the economy has no basis of trade! 🎉😊
@anthonycekic4509
@anthonycekic4509 Год назад
@Crossfirev that's not how downturns work nor do they just print money. Read Wealth of Nations and learn how economics actually works.
@joshuaamoroso4809
@joshuaamoroso4809 Год назад
Crossfirev is right though.
@theLowestPointInMyLife
@theLowestPointInMyLife Год назад
theyre part of the economic cycles we choose to create, absolutely no reason to have them in a non greed and enslavement based society
@xiahualiu
@xiahualiu 9 месяцев назад
I promise you I have seen this right before 2023 lol, someone used to saying 2023 is going to crash the stock market with the same curve matching technique.
@giovannito858
@giovannito858 Год назад
Love how you make the case that we need to reduce our dependency to oil, part one, but part two, we are giving way way way too much money to the already rich. Decades and decades of tax cuts for the rich drives inflation for real estate, for health care, for higher education--all the things that have allowed folks to "bring themselves up by their bootstraps".
@jbarker2160
@jbarker2160 Год назад
Every time the government gives money directly to anyone it's simply a redistribution to the rich. People need jobs, not welfare(which is scientifically proven to be psychologically damaging anyway.) Free trade agreements are simply a way to keep wages low because, now, every American is competing with everyone else in the world. Any time someone is willing and able to do a job for less, it will be done for less. Every regulation is inflationary and a regressive tax.
@SkyBums
@SkyBums Год назад
What are you talking about? Taxing the rich will only make us pay more. Tax is taken from the rich who own the companies so they rise their prices to compensate, then the government spends those taxes on more things we dont need and demands more taxes for everyone and everything gets more expensive. You lefties keep making the world worse with you counterproductive ideas of equity and taxation. Most large companies are publicly listed, meaning a lot of their capital is raised through the stock market. Most of use are invested in the stock market whether we know it or not, either through our retirement funds or our financial advisors. Companies pay a large amount of those profits back to shareholders. If government taxes the rich to cover egregious government spending then that means less equity to give back to us, the shareholder. Its a trickle down effect that has repercussions for the entire economy of a nation. An open market is a better market. Even if your not invested, the price of the end product always goes up if taxation goes up.
@sebastianlucas704
@sebastianlucas704 Год назад
Not even close
@cjerp
@cjerp Год назад
Maybe take a look at what bush Jr Biden and Obama have been doing with money that they didn't have. 'tax cuts' are the least of your problems
@ancellery6430
@ancellery6430 Год назад
the rich are rich because they own stuff, not because they have money. Increasing taxes on them increases taxes on the products they make, increasing prices for consumers. You cant just tax the rich and solve all the problems. Capitalism keeps the rich in check through competition
@denisehassoun6498
@denisehassoun6498 Год назад
Great explanation of the relationship between oil prices and inflation! I really appreciate all your hard work. Your videos are based on fact, not emotion! Please keep them coming!!
@aglot8352
@aglot8352 Год назад
I just ask myself that oil price increase at the same rate for every country but why doesn't the inflation increase at the same rate. They consume oil too. Also, their currency and economic state don't look better than US. In addition they aren't oil producers. Oil price were as higher as today for many years. 2010 to 2015.
@hellofarandula5539
@hellofarandula5539 Год назад
Great video as always. I notice that you display the ACF300X ! I just got some too!
@kelvinl.3816
@kelvinl.3816 Год назад
Price is relative to demand, purchasing power, and technological improvements (ex: cars are more efficient than 20 years ago). You cannot just look at the absolute value changes. A more accurate picture would be the average $ spent on gas vs average income. In 2010 (US Census Bureau), average gas expenditures is roughly 3.5% of average income. In 2021, the number is only 2.3% . In other words, even though gas price increased but we are actually spending less on gas than 12 years ago.
@baconlife2593
@baconlife2593 Год назад
Oil -4,6% today
@caleb7799
@caleb7799 Год назад
Hey Leonardo DiCaprio, when did you start making financial videos??
@themagachad
@themagachad Год назад
We have 2 major political ideologies competing in the US: One that wants to restore individual wealth, pro-consumerism, reduce energy costs, and support middle-low class. The other wants to restrict and limit the consumer, drive existing markets into social causes such as DEI and Climate change, is throwing money into foreign wars, drive inflation by spending trillions in what is likely foreign money laundering schemes... Economic growth was it's highest in 40-70 years (per demographic) under the Trump administration. The new administration is a massive money laundering scheme, COVID was the largest transfer of wealth in human history from poor to rich. We are seeing the country being drained and destroyed from Washington
@fie1329
@fie1329 Год назад
On the other hand, we are also heading into an era where the market more and more decouples from the oil prices. A lot of industries are going from fossils to renewables and this trend is growing. Logistics in 2040 will no longer rely on oil prices.
@andrewfreeman88
@andrewfreeman88 Год назад
Renewable but also disposable and 10 year end of life batteries. Doesn’t seem like a good long term approach.
@tophercIaus
@tophercIaus Год назад
Oil will not be out of logistics in 6ish years.
@fie1329
@fie1329 Год назад
@@andrewfreeman88 And yet we will use it, because it turned out that burning coal and oil is an even worse appoach (and also limited to the resources, it can physically not go for long)
@fie1329
@fie1329 Год назад
@@tophercIaus 2040 is 16 years. Not 6. A lot of countrys claim to be 100% renewable by then. That is only possible if they fade out of oil in logistics. And thats what we see happening. Our Amazon guy is driving electric for years. He, in a sense, is no longer relying on oil.
@gbear34
@gbear34 Год назад
​@@fie1329in order for us to be free of fossil fuels on your timeline the human race will have to mine more copper in the next 16 yrs than we have mined in all of human history.
@blinglover11
@blinglover11 Год назад
More can be done than inject stimulus into the economy to stop recession. A huge factor for inflation that this video doesn’t cover at all is price gouging and corporate greed. Price control is a very valid solution to our economy. Unfortunately governments cares more about the profits of corporations over the well-being of their citizens.
@ct6852
@ct6852 Год назад
A number of corporations have admitted they took advantage of the pandemic when they didn't need to. They followed suit because....why not?
@derianverdecia7119
@derianverdecia7119 Год назад
EASILY my favorite finance channel.
@Leankin
@Leankin Год назад
In the following months anything can happen, but in the long term, expect higher prices due to the peak oil
@MrSpaha-kx7ie
@MrSpaha-kx7ie Год назад
there is no such thing as peak oil
@tonyv1796
@tonyv1796 Год назад
@@MrSpaha-kx7ie So oil is very bullish then, correct?
@RobertGillontheinterweb
@RobertGillontheinterweb Год назад
In the UK we’ve just seen energy demand drop off a cliff with electricity consumption at Covid-low levels. I would be interested to see you look at very recent oil demand as if it’s not there (which my guess is it won’t be) then high oil prices in the absence of demand will actually be deflationary
@Cassp0nk
@Cassp0nk Год назад
Expensive energy is a massive brake on the economy. Uk gov have let us down for last 30 years with terrible short term energy policy.
@NikunjBhagat
@NikunjBhagat 8 месяцев назад
This video didn't age well.
@rogeliobarraza1772
@rogeliobarraza1772 7 месяцев назад
What? How?
@AnkurYo
@AnkurYo Год назад
As we witness the current economic landscape, it's becoming increasingly clear that we're entering a recession. These times can pose significant financial challenges.
@Muller_Andr
@Muller_Andr Год назад
Indeed, Recessions have a way of affecting people's financial stability and investment portfolios in profound ways.
@Jennapeters144
@Jennapeters144 Год назад
You want to work with a money coach or financial planner, although a financial planner will concentrate on long term, a money coach will help you with paying off all of your debts, maximize your cash flow and help you create systems and processes to direct your money proactively.
@xavier_lucas
@xavier_lucas Год назад
I have thought about this, but what is the major difference between a money coach & financial advsior?
@Jennapeters144
@Jennapeters144 Год назад
A financial adviser could help too to create a more holistic plan for your money. They can assist you in the creation of both short and long-term goals and then help you by giving guidance on the financial decisions and opportunities you are presented with.
@xavier_lucas
@xavier_lucas Год назад
Who is this person you work with? I have tried getting around me and it is practically impossible to get one that doesn’t charge exorbitantly. Can you also share what the fee structure is like?
@iguanagoat799
@iguanagoat799 10 месяцев назад
This right here is a perfect example of why nobody should listen to internet "experts" that are actually clueless and just make shit up.
@frankmarsh1159
@frankmarsh1159 Год назад
Interest on savings went from about 5% in 1967 to about 15% fifteen years later. So you would have more than $10,000 by the early 1980s.
@apple1231230
@apple1231230 Год назад
no.1 effect on CPI is housing. if that were to fall 25% than this would balance most other things. what do you know, housing is well overt 25% overvalued in almost all areas.
@tommytracey
@tommytracey Год назад
Wow. The production quality of these GoT videos just keeps getting better. Thank you for presenting this analysis in such a clear, concise, and manner. You do an amazing job showing the relationships between different macro factors that affect the economy and stock market. Super valuable information. Happy to be a paid subscriber.
@tommytracey
@tommytracey Год назад
** “… clear, concise, and objective manner.”
@kennethgray2711
@kennethgray2711 Год назад
An oil melt up? 1. Government has drawn down the oil reserves to lowest levels in decades 2. Oil drilling is at low levels 3. US government is closing public lands for drilling as in Alaska 4. Keystone pipeline cancelled 5. Increases in drilling regulations
@samgerber1371
@samgerber1371 Год назад
Each video gets better, absolutely brilliant, most of all your scripting, very understandable from a non economic educated viewer. Great job dude!
@everglades_n_co.
@everglades_n_co. Год назад
looking back at `03-`07 rally, the rally actually should've stopped in `05-`06 when burry first spotted a real problem on mortgage. burry had a strong reason to believe the boom was done because dxy went down to the level of `95. yet, the rally kept on as dxy went down even more for 1- 1and half yr. no one still can figure out what caused that cycle to persist, but it did anyway. coming back to present, this cycle of economy should've been done as svb, cs went under, yet the fed let liquidity loose on the brink of domino effect and prolong the cycle. i guess we're somewhere in `05-`06. i don't think the rally stops sooner or later. it will keep going until every each one of market participants gets so happy and humming. history repeats, but in different form. one more thing, btw! ltcm was sent off forever of russia moratorium in 1998. mortgage crisis broke out in 2008. and taper tantrum broke out in 2018. beware of 8.
@josephkelly4893
@josephkelly4893 Год назад
Love getting my financial advice from Lars Urlich!! Great video
@tangocharlie9291
@tangocharlie9291 Год назад
6:50 is terrifying. The handouts have run out. Savings have run out. We’re back to out previous economy…. But EVERYTHING, is more expensive.
@RD-zq7bp
@RD-zq7bp Год назад
We need an absolute devastating crash and recession right now to reset prices. Nobody can afford to live at these prices. Let this thing finally fall and let’s reset the board.
@justwait9822
@justwait9822 Год назад
I think that would just hurt the average person more. The people who don't have much disposable income to begin with and don't have savings/assets will more easily lose their homes and be forced to rent. As home prices come down, it'll be the wealthy that buy up more property to either rent out or turn a future profit. The average person might reach into their 401k to make ends meet while the well off will weather the storm by using savings or sell off assets or downgrade their lifestyle expense. When the economy bounces back, they'll be in a stronger position by buying stocks at a lower price while the average joe struggles to rebuild their savings/retirement plans etc.
@ippothedestroyer
@ippothedestroyer Год назад
You think the banks will actually let that happen?
@streetpharmacist
@streetpharmacist Год назад
Not happening
@lukedowneslukedownes5900
@lukedowneslukedownes5900 Год назад
I agree
@preciadoalex123
@preciadoalex123 Год назад
The rich will just buy everything up
@terrancedactielle5460
@terrancedactielle5460 Год назад
Yes but no. House prices are going one way for a few years and that ain't up. I've seen 10% cut from houses in the last 6 months and many houses relisted as the sale has collapsed. The cost of food and oil may continue to rise but houses are a bad investment atvthe moment.
@piglegluckson9156
@piglegluckson9156 Год назад
You can't predict the next earthquake by counting backwards since the last one.
@jlacko
@jlacko Год назад
How about giving us the comparison data for gas prices against inflation from ‘07 to ‘15? Maybe explain how that “shock” did not create the inflation you are suggesting it is directly tied to.
@remowilliams7569
@remowilliams7569 Год назад
The quality of information in this video is outstanding. Just subscribed.
@makethingshappen8427
@makethingshappen8427 Год назад
Ressessions are part of the course of economic activity. We are in need of one to reset prices and deflate bubbles. Like everything else, plan for one so you are ready and ride the wave!
@kakaenda3578
@kakaenda3578 Год назад
Finally thanks for the update! Im trying to hold a million dollars worth of ACF300X . Oddly enough its a sleeper for some weird reason that not many RU-vidrs talk about in regards to lnvesting. It has had steady growth since its release.
@mihaih3344
@mihaih3344 Год назад
Good presentation.
@iam_henriknilsson
@iam_henriknilsson Год назад
As a person working in finance, this is great quality
@Dunk1970
@Dunk1970 Год назад
Yes and no. Slick yes, but some of the cherrypicking of timeframes used for the graphs hide where the conclusions drawn stop fitting with history. eg the section on oil price rises mirroring inflation rises. He shows a graph at 3:24 that starts just before 2017 where the rise and fall matches for a 6 year period, but sneakily removes the inflation line when he expands the graph at 3:41 to show preceeding decades. He does this because there is zero correlation for most of those many decades. Here in the UK, inflation had been relatively low throughout the period from the mid 1990s right through until the last couple of years. This despite the prolonged rise in oil price from 1999 through to 2014. Inflation was between 2% and 3% across the years of 2012 to 2014 when oil was the same price as it is now. In fact the highest it got to was 4% during the entire 1999 to 2014 oil price spike.
@slayer2580
@slayer2580 Год назад
Kinda like climate change scientists hiding the decline.
@JayneCobb88
@JayneCobb88 Год назад
Prophetic. You talked about an oil shock precipitating inflation. 3 days later war erupts in the Middle East
@paranormalmisticindigo8970
@paranormalmisticindigo8970 Год назад
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and ACF300X only, maybe a little BNB.
@medyzz94
@medyzz94 Год назад
ACF300X that looks like a great bluechip coin
@kurushimee
@kurushimee 11 месяцев назад
Okay but why do I get recommended stuff like this when I live on the other side of the world
@Larryake
@Larryake Год назад
hats off to Peter and his team - great research and presentations
@zolkamunka7159
@zolkamunka7159 Год назад
Just stop buying things then.
@tadas8808
@tadas8808 Год назад
History doesn’t repeat, history rhymes.
@Mikanoshi
@Mikanoshi Год назад
History rhymes with mystery, what's your point?
@tadas8808
@tadas8808 Год назад
@@Mikanoshi nice statement. What’s your point?
@Dr.Dumpnpump
@Dr.Dumpnpump Год назад
HPK looking even more juicy to me now. Thanks for the info, great video and explanation.
@Natasha-b8v
@Natasha-b8v Год назад
Thanks to this channel, I've been holding onto my 120k in cash. Looking at the market today, I'm so glad I did. It's going to get worse but for us who's been following the channel, we will have the full ammos to buy big stocks at incredibly great values. Win for us 🙌
@JordanCatchC
@JordanCatchC 10 месяцев назад
That's stupid, you won't be able to do anything with paper currency in the future. As inflation rises your 120k will mean less and less.
@Hamzahyn4
@Hamzahyn4 Год назад
SO uh.... which OTM option should i buy so i can make the most money out of this?
@ياسرالبحري-ز6ب
@ياسرالبحري-ز6ب Год назад
I hope you are right about ACF300X ? Thanks for the highly educational video. Keep up the good work -
@ryan_roga
@ryan_roga Год назад
3:18 The claim that avocados come to the US from Mexico by boat is a great inaccuracy. While there are instances where avocados are transported by sea, the prevalent methods of transporting avocados to the US include refrigerated trucks and reefer containers, with air transport also being an option. The bulk of avocados in the US market indeed come from Mexico due to its higher production levels, but the US also produces a significant amount of avocados domestically, mainly in California, supplemented by smaller contributions from Florida and Hawaii. Therefore, a large portion of avocados found in the US, especially those grown domestically or imported from nearby regions, likely reach the market via road transportation rather than by boat. All of the above transport methods require fuel, but what's interesting is that sea travel is often used in this specific circumstance because it actually has the lowest carbon footprint in terms of Mexico imports, which, as I mentioned, is not the whole story because the US has its own avocado production as well. I don't know why I spent so much time and energy on this. It just seems like if you want to get people to listen to your information it's best to present facts that are accurate. I think most people intuitively know avocado doesn't come to US form Mexico by boat... 🤷‍♂
@justinchambers-cx5op
@justinchambers-cx5op Год назад
Often times the best way to outperform the market amidst fall is usually to earn more and wait it out, but considering how down bad we are and soaring inflation, I'm on the clock and I can't help but panic considering I should be retiring soon, how do I grow my stagnant reserve of $300k, i'm running out of options.
@benalistair4443
@benalistair4443 Год назад
things are actually way worse than the government admits it is, y'all stay safe out there, hope we don't end up in hyper-inflation just like Venezuela
@theoking1712
@theoking1712 Год назад
Well agreed, you know it was way easier to navigate the mrkts up until 2020, ever since it's been dip over dip, I had to source for a portfolio manager Camille Anne Hector to revamp my entire-portfolio in order to hedge against inflation, it's been over 3years following the strategies and I've grown a 250K account to almost 2m thus far.
@lacyseiler6712
@lacyseiler6712 Год назад
Theoking hey mind if I look into the manager that guides you? I dont know what to do in this market i'm losing like 600 dollars per day essentially in my mutual fund portfolio.
@aashishjain3506
@aashishjain3506 Год назад
300k dollar is alot of money if you shift to let's say Thailand or Indonesia.
@AliPlatin
@AliPlatin Год назад
Very well explained Thank you for your Work
@nisaliyeva6745
@nisaliyeva6745 Год назад
This is the most comprehensive and up to date analysis on ACF300X . Well done!
@billbill1235
@billbill1235 Год назад
In 1973 and 1979 it had to do with oil, it is not the same
@aniyosh_
@aniyosh_ Год назад
All of them are really nice picks. But the potential of project that elegantly combine blockchain and AI is Amazons ACF300X and should not be overlooked, I guess. Among them, this truly tackle real-world problems and have vibrant ecosystems, like Aiwork.
@surecom12
@surecom12 Год назад
In my country, we have a saying : "stupid is not the one who asks, but stupid is the one who gives". Isn't it cheaper to build a house instead of buying one?
@nickoutram6939
@nickoutram6939 Год назад
Hi, great video, love the slide chart animations -may I ask what tool you use to animate these graphs? One other thing to consider regarding US Oil production is the decline rate on 'fracked oil' (which is where I believe the majority of the increase in US production has originated) is very large/quick, so its really an investment numbers game which while money is cheap (/free) enables, now money itself is becoming more expensive it will be harder to expand rig count to counter the decline... Keep a close eye on gross US Oil output.
@ThatWeirdCat
@ThatWeirdCat Год назад
probably after effects
@XboxUnitD77
@XboxUnitD77 Год назад
they don't just turn off the pumps and tear down the rigs when demand dries up. They leave those stations operating or at least able to be used. minus deposits drying up, we should easily be able to gain back almost all of the production that was turned down.
@nickoutram6939
@nickoutram6939 Год назад
The first year decline rate on some of the operating fracking units is upto 40%, that was my point.@@XboxUnitD77
@zhanyadosichev6136
@zhanyadosichev6136 7 месяцев назад
You have super content, Like!! Which program do you use to make so amazing charts ??
@T30-z5w
@T30-z5w Год назад
There comes a time when the government cannot provide fiscal stimulus because it’s so debt heavy already that the debt service on additional borrowing would gobble up annual budgetary discretionary spending. This is not the 1970s l. We are in a much worse position with less options.
@zachmeadows9206
@zachmeadows9206 Год назад
While no one will agree with this, if we cut our military budget by a third, we could tackle a huge amount of our debt and still be on par with the amount of spending that every other country globally spends. We really should lower our military budget in times of peace as long as we maintain a strong defense. How much of our military budget goes to protecting other countries??? Maybe it is time those countries picked up the slack for once.
@fbgmroadrunner456
@fbgmroadrunner456 Год назад
Nice transition at the end
@SnakePlantCollector
@SnakePlantCollector Год назад
Nice video, but I don't think it will end. As long as it can still continue, there is no need to think about the end. Because I don't think there is anything that can stop this.
@gammond82
@gammond82 Год назад
Wow, great video. Made me sub.
@ryanheatherly3631
@ryanheatherly3631 Год назад
One way to benefit from the situation is by selling an instructional course to people that are panicking. 🙃
@junkobash2365
@junkobash2365 Год назад
This is the only truth. Buying a course will NEVER make you rich or be able to predict the future lol
@ryanheatherly3631
@ryanheatherly3631 Год назад
@@junkobash2365 If what is taught in paid online courses is truly lucrative, the instructor would either: A) Be busy using these methods to become even more wealthy OR B) Give away the information for free because their intention truly is to help people My guess is that teaching a course is actually a justification for a private owned business that an individual is using as a tax hack so they only have to report a small "salary" on their taxes, while also making a much money as possible from people that are willing to pay for the course. 🤔🙂
@BadMax02_VR
@BadMax02_VR Год назад
the first half of this video actually shows really well how dependent we still are to oil and gas which are non renewable energy sources, in oter words fossil fuels, this just shows once again how important it is for human kind to stop using fossil fuels and rather start making alot of solar wind and water power, maybe even nuclear just as a inbetween solution until the whole renewable energy situation is sorted out. i hope that humanity will soon start realizing that renewable energy is essential for a stable ecosystem and live on earth, just as it has always been. us burning oil in these large quantities upsets the balance of nature and it WILL destroy life as a whle in the long term if we dont do anything. earth is such a perfect balance of gasses atmosphere molecules and other shit, that life managed to grow only here and as far as we know rn no where else in the whole universe, we should respect that and try to follow the system nature gave us, meaning using the suns energy and not some broken down old dinesaurs.
@gmanova
@gmanova Год назад
The quality of your videos is mine boggling.
@subhamsahu2930
@subhamsahu2930 Год назад
Vennabit Token presale starting...I am expecting brutal gains..200x.
@VanPelt54u7fcyde57
@VanPelt54u7fcyde57 Год назад
My p0rtfolio is plummeting significantly, I’ve lost about $320k within a few months and I'm not confident about picking st0cks anymore. Are there really no other options for me to gain from the stock market?
@roberttaylor662
@roberttaylor662 Год назад
Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.
@franzvanpoppin9418
@franzvanpoppin9418 10 месяцев назад
RE: "just produce more oil"... Recent increase in production is largely due to shale oil, which is reaching its limits and many fields have already peaked and are not producing as much as two years ago. Shale oil will be harder to reach and net energy output will decline a lot pretty soon. You already see that financing new oil riggs has become very difficult due to investors not expecting them to be profitable. This financial issue will only change if prices go up, but then we still have the geological limits that we are rapidly approaching. The age of oil is coming to an end, prepare.
@Mrluvshack
@Mrluvshack Год назад
great analysis! keep up the good work!
@Daniel-cj2rz
@Daniel-cj2rz Год назад
ok, so what would you do? sell some ETFs and Stocks and go straight into Bitcoin or save ur money on the bank account where u get up to 4% interests rate?
@lukustreloar7243
@lukustreloar7243 Год назад
Great show,great data 👍
@joseantoniodaly4875
@joseantoniodaly4875 Год назад
The question is. What to do know?
@bolognaandeggs3004
@bolognaandeggs3004 Год назад
Your investing videos are some of the best on RU-vid. Look forward to every one! Thanks.
@opossumboyo
@opossumboyo Год назад
Combine the economic crisis with the climate crisis, the demographic crisis, the political polarization crisis, the health crisis, the…
@bassdojo
@bassdojo Год назад
Appreciate the professional presentation. I know exactly the research and time that went in to making this! Keep em' coming!!!
@Yinyang1277
@Yinyang1277 Год назад
What do you think he used to create these videos? I love the presentation!
@LiquidToast12
@LiquidToast12 Год назад
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
@bestcarschannel6898
@bestcarschannel6898 7 месяцев назад
😂😂😂 Failed predictions !
@xJetbrains
@xJetbrains 11 месяцев назад
Wow, what a prediction. Just 3 days before the Middle East escalation.
@shinkurajpaswan6621
@shinkurajpaswan6621 Год назад
Ive been a fan of Amazon for a long time, so when I saw that they were doing a presale for ACF300X, I knew it was going to be something special. And it is!
@HateTheIRS
@HateTheIRS Год назад
Scammer
@vulcan4d
@vulcan4d Год назад
Didn't this all happen in 1970s because they unpegged the dollar from gold in the US? This is not the case now, we are still using imaginary fiat and we just printed a lot of it so the market is correcting itself. They printed more money than ever in history, what do you think your money is worth now?
@FlexibleGames
@FlexibleGames Год назад
We need a recession, prices are far too high.
@entropicdoom8018
@entropicdoom8018 Год назад
100%, we need a punishing recession with unemployment in double digits. We need taxes cut by 25% and government spending cut by 75%. All of this needs to be sustained till 2029
@MMLauritsen
@MMLauritsen Год назад
Everything is so different now compared to then. You can't do this kind of historical comparison, it doesn't work. You are always going to be able to find some time period in the past that looks like now, but it will never be able to tell us anything about the future.
@orangehatmusic225
@orangehatmusic225 Год назад
We are all losing energy with Biden as president.
@amrofahmawi7819
@amrofahmawi7819 Год назад
hello can u suggest for me a courses where i can learn day trading
@DCFOG
@DCFOG Год назад
You talk so much and yet say so little. Sad.
@somedooby
@somedooby Год назад
Injecting fiscal stimulus is a bandaid. Afterwards, business executives will think, "Hey, the federal government just handed out a trillion dollars, so that means inflation will increase. We'll go ahead and raise our prices because we won't be making enough money." A big problem with capitalism is that there a many executives who think they aren't making enough money, even though they are making several orders of magnitude more than their company's average employee. Let's look at Raising Cane's for instance. Their prices have steadily increased over the years, and the founder bought $100,000 worth of lottery tickets. If they weren't making enough money from sales, then why would they literally throw away 1-3 salaries' worth of money at the lottery, of all places? It is proof that this company, along with many others, make more money than they even know what to do with besides line their own pockets. And it doesn't even matter what the reasoning behind that was because the chance at winning the lottery with that much is... about 0.017%. Would be in favor of a salary cap, where any excess revenue would be required to be reinvested or taxed at 100%, rather than blown on useless things or just keeping it in a bank where it does no good. And speaking of the lottery... I don't think lottery winners would be in a position to complain about an extra 5% taken from the winnings to go towards paying off the national debt... so long as it actually went towards it. And for the portion that is already going towards education, the state governments shouldn't be allowed to redirect funds that *were* going to go towards education but instead sent them elsewhere because of a local lottery win.
@NeighborhoodOrca
@NeighborhoodOrca Год назад
So what are we going to do about it?
@rallysportmotorclubrmc5290
@rallysportmotorclubrmc5290 Год назад
Please explain to me how oil translates directly to inflation? The entire commodity sector accounts for 17% of CPI. Why oil is this expensive and continues to rise is supply dynamics, not more demand. It looks more like a reflation oil hit 140 in 2009.
@thefacts4670
@thefacts4670 Год назад
I purchased $5000 ACF300X I am on the train too
@bruce4139
@bruce4139 Год назад
Everyone seems to be throwing around the word recession but just wanted to let people know A contraction is when you have a downturn in the economy, this is part of the economic cycle, you only have a reccession when there has been 6+ consecutive months of economic downturn
@Nambark
@Nambark 11 месяцев назад
The main reason for inflation (which most dismiss), is the government policy of taking massive loans, printing constantly more money and other government actions. And at the end, the regular person suffers from inflation while the government profits from it.
@tonilux9091
@tonilux9091 Год назад
This time it will just keep plunging, as the era of cheap and abounded energy is over! Good luck to all of us
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