The punt on 4th down one is funny because in years since this first aired. NFL coaches have no doubt started going for it on 4th down waaaaay more than they used to and have found success
#9 is not a myth anymore. 6 of the 8 repeat SB Champs were before the salary cap. 6 times in 28 seasons before the salary cap, and only twice in 25 seasons since.
It IS hard to repeat. What's even harder is winning the Super Bowl the year after you lost it. When the Super Bowl loser says "We're real motivated and we'll be back!", they're usually full of shit. The Pats just did it in 52-53, but before that it had only been done twice, and not since 1972 (Miami in 6-7, Dallas in 5-6).
On one hand, yea, on the other, look at the teams that came close. Seahawks in 2014, Pats in the 5 years, basically got a repeat chance each year. It is incredibly hard, but definetly possible if you look at the teams that won.
@Harry Engel I don't think you can argue that the Seahawks SB team followed your definition of smash mouth. You can just look at the amount of play action they ran.
The issue, which I figured out in the late 70's, is good teams who can run the ball can do so because they have so loosened up the defense..never did know how anyone figured it the other way..
They don't say the team with the leagues best defense wins championships the Orange Crush was the 3rd best defense in '77 [10.6 ppg]...The DOOMSDAY DEFENSE DOMINATED DENVER IN SBXII, they were #8 in scoring defense [15.1] they were #1 in yards allowed. however, the Doomsday gave up 7.6 ppg [playoffs] The #1 Def in the playoffs won the Super Bowl, So the cliche kind of played out accurately...In the end
Warren sapp a defensive guy practically said it defense does not win championships but will give you a chance. Ask him about 99 team. They had defense that was playing lights out and their offense couldn't score enough in tight games. It cost them 99 NFC champ. The 2002 team the defense was playing at a high level but the offense during the season could not do enough. Once the offense clicked the defense could be itself. Ask the 2000 ravens their offense couldn't score enough points cost the some games they could have had homefield in the playoffs if they didnt lose 4 games that year.
@@BTLAGS 2002 was a joke because Chucky Gruden just came from Oakland that same year and knew their plays. Some say their head coach who worked under Chucky helped him even more than the fact that the playbook never changed. The 2000 Ravens beat one of the worst teams ever to get into the Superbowl. The Ravens would have trouble with Minnesota and Slay Lewis. Minesota chocked because of the thug behaviour off the Giants fans much like they did against the eagles thugs in the last championship the vikings were in.
What about the browns lions or jacksonville in some of their worse years? Still unlikely but it couldve been possible. Theres been a few pretty decrepid teams over the years
@@spenck7740 I'd pay to see it, but I'll put my money on the NFL team. Gotta understand, at least half of the best College teams will be guys who will never ever ever ever ever play a down in the NFL. Now if you took the All-Americans of the entire NCAA, made that one team, THEN I can believe they can beat the Browns or the 08 Lions after Kitna got injured etc MAYBE. But not one single college team. They'd be overwhelmed on special teams, at certain OL positions, certain receivers couldn't be effective, certain defensive players would be easy to exploit.
The reason that rookie head coaches don't win (for the most part) is that first year they're usually taking over a team that sucks to begin with. Case in point, I'll give you two of the greatest head coaches of all time, Tom Landry & Chuck Noll. As a rookie head coach in 1960 Landry led the Dallas Cowboys to an 0-11-1 record. The Cowboys were also a first year expansion team. He wasn't going to win with that team no matter what he did, no one would have. As a rookie head coach in 1969 Noll led the Steelers to a 1-13 record. Well guess what? The Steelers had five straight losing seasons before Noll got there, Including a 2-11-1 mark in 1968. The Steelers just plain sucked, no one was going to with with that team either.
I like this one, forgot how good this top 10 was....Can we get a top 10 WRs soon? RIP Don Shula, you were a true great and you will not be forgotten for what you have done on and off the field
@@UncleMikeNJRandy Moss and everybody else. When the Patties were 18-0 when they played the NYGiants Brady kept throwing the ball to little short receivers Edelman&Welker instead of getting Randy Moss involved in the offense often and early, RM should've been thrown to at least a dozen times in the first half catching at least 8 of them for 100+yds and probably 2tds, he had 20+td catches that year, when NE realized they were about to lose with a minute left, here NE go throwing to RM deep down the field. RM wasin the running for league mvp, that's where that NE/Billicek plantation mentality kicked in. B NE had beat the Giants in the last regular season game. The biggest meltdown in Pattie's history.
I honestly lost respect for him and every other player and coach part of that undefeated dolphins team. Having a party every year for when no teams go undefeated and acting like they are beat team ever. They only played 2 teams over .500 first of all. Not like they had a hardcore schedule. They could never beat the best version of 70s steelers, 85 bears, best 80s niners team, early 90s bills, 90s cowboys. Late 90s rams and broncos, early 2000 pats colts ravens. And many more teams. They could be beat none of those great teams. They are the bottom of any great team list. So fuck them. I was hopi g a team cut down Shula before he went the great game in the sky.
When i played highschool ball, we had 2 quarter backs. 1 with a decent, accurate arm. Other had a rocket arm. 1st guy got the starting job. Mr Rocket tried to knock down the receivers when he threw. Half the time, the ball was nearly un-catchable on short passes. We tried to tell him so many times. "Dude stop throwing so fucking hard, on short passes"
@@mrtnt3462 Don't get me wrong, he could have been a good QB. Just needed to calm down, and focus on getting the ball to his receiver. Rather than throwing a rocket, that few mortal men could have intercepted anyway.
Reminds me of me and my dad having an argument of Jeff George vs Rich Gannon, when they first signed Gannon. My dad loved George and was upset that they released him and I told him they'll be better with Gannon cuz they run the west coast offense. My dad argued that they should be able to run the west coast offense WITH George and I said Jeff is never going to settle for dink and dunks and he's too in love with his cannon arm. Several years later, after Gannon's success my dad said "you were right". I didn't think Gannon was going to be Pro Bowl level, TBH.
2:11 Accurate Tackle Statistics. 5:56 Dynasties attempts back-to-back Super Bowl championships. 9:17 Always punt the ball on 4th Down. 13:29 Domed Teams are soft than a pillow. 16:42 Call timeouts on placekickers. 21:40 Quarterbacks with rocket arms. 25:05 Run -> then set up the pass. 29:36 Can't lose your roles while getting injured. 34:40 Defenses wins Super Bowls and championships. 40:05 The prevent defenses stops opposing team chances of winning.
One of the things that I miss about the Rams being in St. Louis is those games against Seattle. Checking the schedule to see who the home team was to see how excited to get for the game. Because the odds of winning drastic go up for the home team in that particular rivalry. Even if the Rams sucked, there was still a good chance at seeing an exciting game. The best thing about the Rams moving the way they did is that I can now cheer for the 'Hawks without any shame. They are a fun team to watch. Also, almost forgot, Fuck Stan Kroenke.
@@AmirKhan-yv8jmKurt Warner was an elite passer that brought the "Greatest Show on Earth" if Billicek wasn't stealing the Rams plays with the "Spygate" scandal, Kurt was league and SB mvp. Rams broke Minnesota's season scoring record.
After being a bears fan for 20+ years, I'd say a rocket arm is completely unnecessary, common sense is actually pretty important. I'd kill for a QB with common sense, but the bears are a perfect example that common sense is far from common... unless I'm unaware that the bears are EOE and being colorblind will not stop you from being able to become a QB for Chicago
Three men have led the Bears to an NFL Championship: Sid Luckman, Bill Wade, Jim McMahon. None of them had a "rocket arm." Once McMahon went down, it was over. Mike Tomczak and Jim Harbaugh were good quarterbacks, but not great ones, even briefly. Those 1986-92 Bears, after Super Bowl XX, also disproved "Defense Wins Championships."
As a Bears fan I concur. But the dome team myth or more specifically home field advantage coming from weather is not a myth. I'm posting this now because the Bears are looking for a new stadium but it's a huge mistake for this team to go into a dome. Huge mistake.
The pass setting up the run makes much more sense than the run setting up the pass. I think there’s a much larger chance of getting a (relatively) big run when the defense is stopping the pass than getting a big pass play when the defense is packing to stop the run
"It's hard to repeat as AFC West Champion." Look at the list of AFC West winners and you'll see that it is usually dominated for several years in a row by one team or another. In the last 9 years, it's been Broncos 5 in a row and the Chiefs the last 4 in a row.
punting.... way back, Tennessee's coach fulmer had his team punt to an unstoppable Alabama offense. UT wasn't bad, could've kept the game competitive, but Phil did that "net 20 yards" thing, and Bama would make up that 20 years in maybe 2-3 plays. It was really the point where you could tell Phil had gotten too conservative to "play to win"...couple of years later he was fire.
Prevent offense is actually a thing. Run the ball, don't turn it over, control the clock, prevent the other team from being on offense as much as possible.
When Bill Cowher led by more than 11 points in a game, he would play prevent offense He had a record of 108-1-1 in those games He learned from Marty Schottenheimer, he played Marty Ball. It just worked for Cowher
34:48 That is a fact If you just look at every playoff team that had either top 10 defense or a top 10 offense You’ll see a lot more top 10 defenses were able to carry worse offenses to success than the other way around. It comes down to the fact that the playoffs are in Winter Things are a bit slower offensively Even if it’s not snowy or cold You’re still more likely to be injured
It's probably more the case that a well-executed prevent defense is good and a badly done prevent is bad. Just like good defense in general works and bad defense in general doesn't. Galaxy brain.
Aaron Schatz's 4 examples (at 35:50) of teams to win Super Bowls with offense were also very good, if not elite, defensive teams. 1999 Rams -- 4th in points against, 6th in yards allowed 1998 Broncos -- 8th/11th 1997 Broncos -- 6th/5th 1980 Raiders -- 10th/11th (fun fact, the Raiders were 16th in total offense that year so you could argue their defense was better than their offense) I think the thing with "defense wins championships" is that you are very unlikely to win unless you have a good defense. But then again, it's very unlikely that you'll win it without a good offense so I'm not sure why it's become such a cliche other than coaches trying to hype up their defensive players and make good speeches. (Edit: said 3 examples in original post but there were actually 4 he listed)
@Harry Engel Not really Harry. Take Dak Prescott's Green Bay game in 2019. By passer rating and even basic stats, he had a "good game" but truth? He was down I believe 28-7 and the Packers let him throw the ball in garbage time. Garbage stats inflate the QB rating significantly. Just don't throw interceptions and it'll stay relatively high.
@Harry Engel I agree with pretty much everything you said, but the sad thing is statistics are routinely presented without context so those like QB rating need to be scrapped imho.
@Harry Engel Everson is a corner who probably belongs in the Hall and gave up a kidney to a teammate who needed it. He and Danny were part of that Cowboys squad that came up short in very close plays or else they win another Super Bowl or if Landry had had more foresight like Don Shula had. Tony is my absolute favorite player and Jerry Jones flat out failed him. They got rid of him just when they finally built a team capable of winning a championship around him. From 2010-13 they slowly rebuilt and wasted his youth.
Idk when this was made but yeah, one of the best things about the modern NFL is that 4th down decision making is much more aggressive, and it more often than not works. (And when it doesn't, games get much more exciting!)
Does a QB need a rocket arm? Personally no. I think a QB needs vision and football IQ. I look at the last three years of Tom Brady and we can see the check downs and small throws but he’s very dangerous because he see’s the defense so well and knows what to do.
Harry Engel because combined with qb smarts it can be dangerous! Look at the second biggest flop/bust of all time demarause Russell (sorry for the bad grammar) and he had a real good arm but no field management. But look at Patrick Mahomes recently who can throw 75 yard bombs but has pretty good field management and there you go, one of the best qb’s in the league, one of the best offenses in the league and one won the super bowl (no I’m not biased towards him I’d like to mention as I’m a pats fan but I’m giving credit where credit is due)
@Harry Engel because its another factor for the defense to consider. A rocket arm is another plus. In my opinion what matters more is a high football IQ.
@Harry Engel Look up Dan Marino, Patrick Mahomes, John Elway, etc. and you'll see why lol. When you got a guy with that supreme arm, it's so much easier to build around him.
I agree that rookie head coaches can't win is a myth, look at Matt Nagy, he got us Bears to 12-4 and back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
They count down and say five-five- fivee: five. All sexy like then they re-count down like we just didnt watch the first 9 things... Five, fivee, fiveee sexyy
@@ClosestToTheSun Definitely. I don't blame the uploader. I blame lazy/greedy NFL for padding out a half hour program into a full hour. (not to mention a 60 minute football game into 3-4 hours.)
When I hear, “Run to set up the pass.” I think of Bo Jackson’s big day at Seattle. He was 3 yards and a cloud of dust until Marc Wilson (yeah, I said Marc Wilson) managed to stretch the field with a couple long bomb completions.
RE: Run to set up the pass. It always befuddles me as to why coaches come out in the 1st series and run the ball at a fired up defense. Instead, get them on their heels by spreading them out. After forcing them to expend energy covering the whole field, then run the football.
So why would we quit asking for requests if he will get to them? I love how you feel like you speak for this channel and are like "stop interacting with his videos and giving him more potential video ideas that will lead to more views and subscribers....because I say so." I'd boot you off my comments so quick.
It is much harder to repeat as super bowl champs due to the schedule. The teams not in your division will be playoff teams from the year prior. So if you had a poor season the year prior to winning the super bowl then your path there wasn't as tough as it will be the year after. Why do we see teams go from playing in super bowl to 5-11 the next year? One reason is the schedule became more difficult.
Not really an excuse as these amount to just 2 games on your schedule otherwise everyone in your division has the same schedule. The formula is each team plays teams in your own division twice, you play one entire division within your conference and one out of conference. The remaining 2 games are against teams in the other 2 divisions in your conference who finished the same as you the previous season. For example, I'm a Cardinals fan. This season, aside from the NFC West teams, they play the entire NFC East, AFC East, and since they finished in 4th their remaining 2 games are against Detroit and Carolina.
Another example is the 08 Steelers. They had one of the toughest schedules that year. They played at least 10 teams that were above .500 the previous year. They went on to win the SB.
Coaches questioning going for it on fourth down: Lovie Smith (career winning percentage .506); Steve Mariucci (career winning percentage .514). Going for it a bit more might have helped them.
Coaches still get killed in the media (and by a lot of fans) when it doesn't work and that plays into the decision making, because most owners can read...
During the Vikings outdoor era, they won something like 15 more games at home than on the road, which was probably just about average home-road differential.
I still feel like the back to back super bowls are harder now, because of the salary cap there has only been what two maybe three teams since the salary cap that has repeated!!!
What gets lost in the prevent defense argument is that while it does work a high percentage of the time, it's also a team playing with a lead, so ANYTHING you call is going to have a bias toward winning just because of the lead. The question is does that prevent defense give you a better chance of winning than running a standard defense? I don't think anyone's saying to go all Gregg Williams and bring the house, but maybe run something where receivers don't have room to get YAC. Anymore though, teams have gotten so good and so fast at hurry up offenses that even an average or below average QB can lead the team quickly down the field. Teams only need about 8-10 seconds to spike the ball anymore, when it used to take about 15 seconds.
It’s not a myth. Ask the pats who get teamed like the chargers in 2018 in there house and they get steam rolled. The patriots have succeeded based on hotter teams playing them in the playoffs
I love how the fourth down one gets caviated down from the original premise from you should always go for it on fourth down (which is what the guy that made the study said) down to on fourth and short you should definitely almost always sometimes go for it. "He's on to something" NO his point was that you should go for it on EVERY fourth down.
For myth number 9 they fail to mention that of all the teams that have won back to back super bowls only two of those teams, Patriots and Broncos, did so after free agency(actually they did mention it, my bad). Me personally would add the Cowboys to that list for 93-94. Anyway I think with free agency it is a bit harder to win back to back in the free agency era, specially when the league circles your free agents like vultures will to pay far more that what their talent would otherwise dictate.
The people in this video would have liked to have seen KC's/Andy Reid's Alex Smith lob to Tyreek Hill Vs. Dallas' Prevent Defense from a few years ago.
Jieux Armeni look at super bowl 42( patriots vs giants 2007) we needed a touchdown and they did prevent defence which screwed us over because putting moss 1 on 1 would have been a mistake. 2011( patriots giants second time) Super Bowl, we needed a touchdown once again and prevent defence screwed us. (Patriots vs Eagles 2017 super bowl also, we needed a touchdown and prevent defence just destroyed us in 3 superbowls
Funny how all these NFL coaches and experts gave the college prof crap for saying teams should go for it on 4th down more. 10 years later he's been proven right as teams are much more aggressive on 4th down.
Mooch had a point how do you go for it with your job and mortgage payments on the line plus the media and fans will rip you apart if you fail going for it.
a handful of coaches accept it, a fair amount of fans accept it, and a lot of players accept it. But I don’t think the front offices and old-ass team execs quite accept it. And if there’s pressure put on the coaches by the fans because a team went for it and failed several times in important moments of games, I think there’d be a much higher chance that the coaches lose their jobs than if they “played it safe” and punted
So for me on 4th down. If it's 4th and 5 or less go for it and anything more you punt. Now saying that you go for it on 4th down if you need a touchdown to win or tie the game.
You know the cant lose a job due to injury myth addition I just realized? Seattle Seahawks give Matt Flynn this big contract, and he's nursing a elbow injury iirc during preseason and it gave them time to find out Wilson was a potential rookie worth starting. Matt Flynn's been retired for years. Wilson looks like a future Hall of Famer. I still have a old Seattle paper during that preseason stating the competition being over, Flynns the man, stop the madness. The day after a home game. How times have changed.
I can’t imagine the 2010s without Russell Wilson. Just can’t. Seahawks almost certainly pick at the top of the draft every year in that case. Maybe they’d end up with Jared Goff in 2016? California (state) connection with him and Coach Carroll?
"Everytime I look at the score board it's always the team that scored more points that wins the game." Yeah it's way easier to score more points when your opponent has zero.
Indeed it is - last I checked, zero points will get you a tie at best, or very likely means your team were losers in a blown out. The catch is, the last scoreless tie in pro football was way back in 1943, between Detroit and the New York Giants: both teams played replacement-level squads (due to the exodus of players to WWII) in a torrential downpour that turned the field at Briggs Stadium into a slush pit.
Myth- run the ball to set up pass It depends on ur skill players. If u have a great run offense then the defense would b more inclined to have more men in the box to stop it, and leave the receivers man covered. But if ur receivers and QB are insnyc and the defense knows they can be burned quickly then they would b more zone covered and leave the running game open more.
The run to set up the pass bit It much more about the Line than anything else If your O line can show dominance through the running game There will be far fewer sacks when you go to pass
That being said The west coast offense of Bill Walsh is all about establishing the passing game through quick passes If there’s not enough time for a sack you don’t need to have the running game established
Going to the prevent d EARLY can lose the game. But if the clock is running out and the other team has a long way to go, what other defense would you run?
31:35 He didn't tell the Wally Pip story very well there, lol. "He was a guy that got hurt, got replaced, no one ever heard of him again." Players like, "uh-huh. What's your point coach?" Missing the key detail that he was replaced by Gehrig who went on to play in a record number of straight games and went to the HoF.
Rookie HCs can win, but I think its rookie NFL HCs from college who can’t win...which is the case for the 3 examples they used (Holtz, Spurrier, and Petrino). Add Nick Saban to the list. Jimmy Johnson took a few years, but to be fair his team sucked anyway. Barry Switzer shouldn’t count bc he inherited a team that probably wouldve won a SB with no HC. I wouldve won a ring with that team
Repeating is tougher now with the salary cap, and planned super bowl windows. Teams just lose so much depth from year to year, and keeping your top players means making sacrifices elsewhere.
I think that's true: if a team can keep their core together and stay hungry & healthy, that gives them a shot to repeat. Too many variables are in place nowadays in making the road back more difficult. Look at the 2014 Seahawks: they were a yard away from winning back to back, and then they went ahead and outsmarted themselves.
@@TommyC503 For sure, an upper-tier QB gives a team a fighting chance nowadays; this is no longer an era where having a Dan Marino and not much else will only get a team so far. Boy, I bet Marino wishes he could've played in an era where flawed teams (such as the '07 & '11 Giants) win Super Bowls.
The thing about the Met was the Vikes were used to the cold, but most teams are freaked out, with the exception 0f the Packers, Broncos, Bills, Bears, Redskins, Chiefs, Giants...0k all warm weather and dome teams are at a disadvantage.
I can think of the entire Purple People Eaters line, Keith Millard, Jared Allen, Danielle Hunter, and John Randle. For the Chiefs, Derrick Thomas was a BEAST, but he's the only great KC pass rusher that comes to mind besides the aforementioned Jared Allen.
