Trading Psychology Podcast Ep7: Overconfidence

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Whether it's overexcitement on a new trading system, sick returns on demo trading, or you're just a really confident person in general, overconfidence can and will wreck you at some point. Recognize it or get humbled.
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Опубликовано:

1 янв 2023

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Комментарии : 67

@thealternativecontrarian9936 Год назад

There is nobody out there who is a "natural" in trading. There are lessons to be learned and things to be realized. Everyone who is successful spent several years getting there and overcoming all the human elements that limit us. I still have some overconfidence but not as much as I used to. Wisdom is knowing when you DON'T know something. Trading will humble anyone and bring them to their knees. An open mind asks questions and listens. Overconfidence has been my ruin but I am still pushing through.

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

That first sentence is very interesting, and actually a future episode of this podcast. Kind of.

@Juhno Год назад

What a legendary choice for thumbnail.

@KyleBaran90 Год назад

You joke, but I was absolutely garbage at fundamental analysis, Shkreli actually has some FA videos. Now I kinda know how to read a balance sheet and income statement and use it to forecast future cash flows and revenue. Makes the medium/long term buy-and-hold investments a lot more sensible and structured.

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

I'm a closet Shkreli fan too. I think he got jobbed in the trial. Just thought the thumbnail was apropos.

@ferrod15 Год назад

One of the best!

@joshmorrison4977 9 месяцев назад

These podcasts are so accurate.

@olanrewajuobajolu518 Год назад

For me this confidence level got to its peak in two phases. Discovered one trading methodology on RU-vid and confidence got to its peak after trying it demo for few weeks but got smashed after trying on real account. It was at this point my confidence got to its lowest ebb. Losing real hard-earned money got me thinking that there must a hidden right way to approach this market. My search online got me NNFX. So much actually changed about my trading as a result ; so much that I thought I've arrived after successfully building an algorithm. Again, this confidence plummeted when demo- trading with the algorithm did not yield the desired result. Nonetheless, the goal is to keep at it. Soon I will good news to tell VP. Soul-lifting video! Thanks so much

@abdalrahmanayman7069 Год назад

awsome.. um here bro.

@n8t4short Год назад

thanks vp❤

@petermusinsky4524 Год назад

I got overconfident in my 1st year of live trading as I've made over 300% Then, I crashed and burned 🔥 I'll never forget that! It was THE hardest lesson in my trading career. But, I'm glad. It thought me that I DON'T KNOW SHIT!

@rozbickad Год назад

Thank you

@donhec4063 Год назад

Wow, what a great talk! Forever thanks to you VP and Rob💥👍🥳

@godlovesusall8115 Год назад

Thank you for showing B-roll of what's supposed to be a female trader, although I'm black, I still felt included.

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

Judging by the pictures I had seen, the majority of my female traders on my channel are black. And Caribbean believe it or not. You're in good company.

@XEBAZ16 Год назад

Definitely overconfidence is the worst feeling you can get when trading, when I discovered this channel and created a basic algorithm I felt like the next Warren Buffett lol, only a losing streak got me out of that algo and then I took it slow and steady, started to find and backtest indicators on TV, and just after I found and backtested a laggy one with a fast one + a momentum indicator this week, it worked perfectly fine, I got into 10 trades (commodities, fx and metals) just to try to forward test it on different scenarios, right now in 8 of them I just hitted my 1ATR TP, 1 hitted SL and the last one still in green numbers, I went from the peak to the bottom that Rob always talks in a matter of two months, even tho this new algo seems to work, I'm eyes open and always watching flaws more than winnings. Thank God I found this channel, and thank you, VP and Rob.

@sandeepgaonkar9970 Год назад

Just out of the world & so deep !!

@Mthobisii_Ngcobo Год назад

The content in this channel not just this podcast is evergreen... Respect

@luckynkosi255 Год назад

I was doing dropshipping back in 2020 and wanted another source of income to help me make an extra 300-500 bucks a month. A friend of mine introduced me to Forex and I went on a journey of my own. I took a course, watched a few RU-vid videos and funded my account and traded support and resistance and slowly destroyed that account over 2 weeks. Even though I sucked, I loved it and I never even thought of giving up. I never actually said to myself that this is what I want to do but I acted like it and now over 2 years later. I agree with you, we all get to a point where we tell ourselves that "I'm gonna be that 0.1%" I personally understood and accepted before I started that I'm probably gonna suck at first and I'll just see where I end up, but once I started I never stopped.

@AnthonysTradingChannel Год назад

Trading psychology definitely overlooked by too many. Thanks for your insights.

@Dgreatson Год назад

Welldone Vp n Rob Thanks guys for alot of this info

@raysitunyama3001 Год назад

You are very consistent men wow!

@samuelvirgo8468 Год назад

Thank vp this great lesson ❤❤❤

@DerianCambridgewest-lt6ze 8 месяцев назад

This podcast is house fire

@kennedyngige5007 Год назад

Definitely, i am just like VP never giving up is never an option for me it gotta work whatever it takes.

@CoexistenceSteven Год назад

My first big loss was 1 week into trading, with the overconfidence (mostly unwarranted!) I carried my entire life. I lost 50% of my savings in that 1 trade. Another thing about certainty I've noticed in myself is that having that certainty, when it doesn't come true, with my character trait leads to very negative emotions. That was a great take away for me "the odds are"

@pitchblack5558 Год назад

first to comment ...over confidence huhu..so excited ...been blow account 3 times ..but still keep going ..learn from my mistakes 😅 quiting is not an option 💪💪

@NN4X_PRIEST Год назад

I don't know how to thank you VP... I guess I've already been through my overconfidence phase already 😂😂😂. Overconfidence really trashed me, I found out about these new indicators on some RU-vid channel I was so overconfident with these indicators I didn't even test them out, I just eyeballed them I thought to myself I'm going to kill this market now after one year of trying price action trading and it didn't work out for me, I found out about indicators trading from you and I was so freaking happy that I thought to myself "bro, you are going to kill the market". The market humbled me real good, kicked my a** real bad. Because of my overconfidence I don't even the more trade I went straight onto real money trading and prop firm auditions. After about eight different evaluations with no success, I had to step back and think again. So a year after that now I'm trading 2 prop firm account with really good sucess. Now I'm waiting for a 10-month results so I can move to Maverick prop firm. 🔥🔥🔥

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

That's incredible bro. Looks like the worst is well behind you.

@NN4X_PRIEST Год назад

@@NoNonsenseForex All thanks to you sir. I'm really glad my hunger for success led me to you. I was having the lowest score in my class in my high school years, most teachers, classmates, friends & relatives thought I'm just a waste of time. After graduation, i set out to prove everyone wrong, I'm glad because i met you and my psychology really improved too, i even realized that i was doing myself more harm than good trying to prove my worth and now it's all about me, i don't care what anyone thinks anymore 🥰🥰🥰. I could say you had the most positive effect on my life more than anyone else 💗💗💗

@pitchblack5558 Год назад

congrat's bruhh to youre journey ..keep going 🥰 im proud of you ..

@Sendzik23 Год назад

Really Great episode indeed! It's amazing to know I'm on the right track. You guys are phenomenal teachers!

@mavericktrading Год назад

Thanks! Keep improving and stay humble!

@gregpetersen9790 Год назад

Thanks Rob / Patrick, Your comments are very helpful, they allow me to put all the pieces of trading together. & Yeah “I don’t know sh1t” , and I still don’t like the F.U. candles.

@friction5001 Год назад

Another banger 🎊

@NN4X_PRIEST Год назад

Are you from Nigeria?

@aaronkorn Год назад

Wow amazing lesson thank you so much

@sybentley6675 Год назад

Happy new year Guys! All the best for 2023 ..... Oh, I will never quit this. The 99.6 % fail rate we have can be cut in half every time you do some simple things. A journal . Risk management. Never risk more than 2% of your capital. Talk to the average person about economics! It is amazing how brand new most people are. The odds fall away quick with these simple things. I think with the above disciplines you are at 33%. Am I wrong?

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

Impossible to say

@samuelvirgo8468 Год назад

Happy new year 🎆 vp thank you for all the lessons over years I hope have a successful year

@2321brendan Год назад

Yep Im at the I know I dont know shit level. The only thing I have done well in the last 4 years trying to trade is not blowing money I could not afford to lose. The Grind is Real...............

@Jjsaint007 Год назад

This happen to me too when I started making some gain in this market, my overconfidence was over the roof and although I make some progress and make some good amount of money I also loss that money really quick . now I have to do things the right way and am surprise how many things could change with a little tweaks and using different combination could bring different result . well thanks VP and Robb for this

@godswillokafor8030 Год назад

The probability that new traders will make this mistake is close to 1. It takes time to build the mindset

@KyleBaran90 Год назад

On the topic of getting started with forex: I started trading stocks in 2020, making stupid and risky all-in trades when the markets were going up all year. Made some money, and experienced a $2,000 loss for buying the top and lost it in 15 minutes, I felt awful all day. I'm glad I experienced that early with low stakes and no leverage. Traded crypto during the highs too, and flipped shitcoins that lasted for like 4 hours before getting rugpulled. It was crazy, dump $30 into it, get a 20x return and repeat. I went from $850 to $9000. But once I had that money, I didn't move it to stablecoins or take profit and it just dwindled over time down to less than $300. Got into options trading this year and lost about $3,000 by making bad trades; was mostly successful by doing covered calls. I understand the greeks but I'm probably going to avoid them in the future, unless I'm hedging or writing CCs, no more gambling on ERs. And eventually I got tired of losing money, found this channel, and started building a system. I still need to move from backtesting to forward testing for 6 months, but the risk management and psychology is invaluable. I've applied some of it to my stock trading and feel much more confident on taking trades.

@eddiejimenez9299 Год назад

Overconfidence is bad but having confidence and believing in yourself can carry you over the finish line in managing your trades. This race is a lifetime marathon and not just 26 miles but - the market will humble you and when you will finally get to the stage of knowing that something important is missing - you will find its "Trading Psychology"

@SatuAyatQuran_ Год назад

@ImranSyed-ym6zo Год назад

Strongly wondering if there is an episode coming on losses and going on slumps. Not a trader but 2022, owning risk assets, whether they be stock or in my case recently, crude oil have been a real set back and I'm really questioning how I go about financial decisions and risk.

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

There just might be!

@limoeco Год назад

Ma boii martnn skreli on rise🙂

@rishz7857 Год назад

When I was a kid,.. What's a video game?? Let fools be foolish. Results speak.

@michaelpius-jd9mi Год назад

Great talk as always VP and Rob. Please I would like to ask a question based on a comment you made(VP). You said " the returns on demo trade will be far lower than your ROI when you start trading live", why is this so?

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

Psychology

@natenut1694 5 месяцев назад

Can anyone hit me up with a link on how to use mt5 to automatically backtest custom indicator. Doing it manually isn't cutting it anymore for me

@chrisborlase2944 Год назад

Do you have a Spotify link for these podcasts?

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

Yessir - open.spotify.com/show/61WqfbNmk05rLMgj2p3V1V

@ahmadhassan8382 Год назад

CC ( subtitle ) is not active for this video

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

It takes some time to populate

@geoffcohen6062 Год назад

my overconfidence story was the first time i got enough parts of my system to actually make $ in forward testing. after 3 months, i figured i had better get an eval going while i was on a role. succeeded in the eval and was riding high... then i started on the real account and everything crashed. trying to keep the account alive and wondering how in the world do you know if your system ever really works given you can have months of doing great and months of doing poorly. do i stay with it, or do i keep working on it? i feel like i am in the trough. any thoughts to an under-confident episode? lol. based on what you two have been saying, the best thing i have done was create an umbrella indicator that reads my other indicators and tells me to get into a trade or out of a trade so i don't even have to look at the charts if i don't want to.

@NoNonsenseForex Год назад

Under confidence episode is a great idea, but was also insinuated a lot in the undertrading episode. Tough call, will have to think about it.

@DerianCambridgewest-lt6ze 8 месяцев назад

Sometimes people don't write there names on their IQ test, if you know what I mean