Ukraine Conflict (20240510): Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update 

Thanks for the full frontal update JP, and we got a bonus “hits and loss” section too. Thanks to you JR for the mapping.🍻

Always good, no fluff, no b.s. thanks❤

Thanks for the update Jonathan! 💙💛

Thank you, Jonathan for the frontline update 👍👍👍

Keep it up JP you're doing great

Thank you for all that you do to help me understand what is going on in Ukraine brilliant with all the video's

Thanks for your update. Tahir

🌾💙💛 Thanks for the info,ty JR...much-needed update. I will remain hopeful and optimistic also 🇺🇦🌻

Nice! Was waiting for this one. Take care team!

Great update JP, you never let us down 👍🇺🇦, I think this latest attack looks almost like desperation from ruzzian military geniuses

Good on ya Jonathan

Thank goddess Jono you are on our side!🙏👍👏

Russia is learning from Ukraine, great work today ATP. Comment for the algorithm

Great work JP ! Keep it up !!

🥇

JR nice map work buddy ! keep safe dude

Thanks

If you're not confused, you're not paying attention. 😄

I have a feeling that the russians attacked towards kharkiv to push the ukrainians back a bit to stop them from hitting bolgoarad as it's just in range of the artillary.

There seems to be a fundamental difference that's unique to Russia regarding nuclear threats. There's absolutely no good reason, nuclear or otherwise, for restricting Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons against legitimate military targets inside Russia, especially in this case with the Russians amassing just across the border to the north of Kharkiv. It would be purely shameful, nonsensical and, to be blunt, evil on the part of Western backers of Ukraine should Russia be allowed to just keep its artillery and long-range weaponry on the Russian side of the border, pelting Ukrainian civilian & military sites alike with reckless abandon, across the Ukrainian side of the border in and around Kharkiv without any worry of counter-battery fire or strikes against any of their military assets simply because Western backers of Ukraine are afraid of some theoretical non-existent response. North Korea has been making nuclear threats, as a nuclear power, for years, and has been firing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles directly over other nations. Some of those missiles, we now know, do indeed have the range & capability to reach the continental United States and Europe. Yet, demands associated with such threats are never met or even entertained, and aside from air raid sirens in South Korea & Japan when missile launches are tracking close enough to or through their airspace, threats from North Korea never raise any pulses, if they're ever even really acknowledged at all. Iran only needs to finish fully refining its nuclear fissile material, which we know it has in tremendous amounts & which it needs less than 2 weeks to finish refining, before loading it into warheads atop their ballistic missiles. Several such ballistic missiles, we all seem to have forgotten or have chosen to ignore, did in fact manage to land in Israel, meaning Iran is indeed capable of striking Israel with nuclear weapons inside of 2 weeks from such time as they might decide to do so. So, why are so many Western allies & backers of Ukraine fearful of Russia, and apparently only Russia, and bend to their demands, and apparently only their demands, to such a degree as to give them such tremendous leeway, and why is it that we allow Ukraine, but not South Korea, Japan, Israel or anybody else to suffer the consequences of that cowardly choice?

Thank you Jonathan ❤ Love to all ❤ 🫂🙏 Slava Ukraini ✊️ Heroyam Slava ✊️ 🇬🇧 ❤ 🇺🇦 I trust the AFU 🔱

Maybe the Russians hope specifically that most batches of shells will be sent to the north so they can proceed in the east.

The T55s clad with a garden shed are the modern equivalents of the proverbial kitchen sinks, that Russia now is able to 'throw into the fray'. They are bigger but just as ineffective. What will they think of next?

I’d say Krinky is strategic… it controls that main road and the desert isolated it so they only have too worry about attack from the two road directions I expect this area heats up over the summer

My major concern is that Russia does have the troops assuming 1000 recruits are still being had. Ukraine does not have the manpower.

Algo

The Russians figured out that when they have to send people to the north to defend against intrusians, they might as well use them to turn the table in that sector.

You're obviously right to doubt the wisdom of the Russian 'offensive' North of Charkiv. But Russian commanders will do things by the book. Or else they might fall out of a window. So I think we should see this as standard procedure: assuming having overwhelming numbers and much greater strength, pushing back the enemy over an as wide as possible front. Creative and innovative tactics I do not expect.

Honestly not worried about it at all, why? The Russians may have 50k troops there, but not enough tanks/apc/ifv/trucks to even move that many people for a real offensive (wouldn’t be wise to move them on foot cluster/artillery in general would make short work of them) and not to talk about the amount of artillery, glide bombs and mlrs you would need to strike things like defensive positions that have been there after there offensive in the early days and probably got a big buff since Russia started talking about it. IF Russia had enough Vic’s and would just move all of its troops with enough artillery and bombs they surely could reach the city within hours since there will not be enough troops to defend from this. But looking at there places where they store those, attack in other places I highly doubt they have the means for it in terms of Vic’s, I feel like Ukraine has a good amount of artillery ammo there for exactly this case, I am no expert but using the few brain cells I have and looking at the bigger picture I don’t believe there really should be a worry about this, anyways Ty for your update keep up the good work ❤

50k plus clusters = 5k

Are the free Russian still in Bulgaria

some analysts believe that the Russians may try to cut Kharkiv off, and shell and bomb the city, but not enter, either way Ukraine has to send troops and armor there immediately. they have already lost 3 villages in less than 24 hours. Military strategists also thinks that if massive resources will have to transport to new lines which make them vulnerable to attack in transit, since the sky is buzzing with drone surveillance. Either way not good news.

I don't think the orcs will get near to Kharkiv.......but if they do orcs took Osgiliath as well........how did that work out for them.

Great job👍 I recently watched the Joe Rogan interview with tucker carlson. Very odd behaviour from carlson, i dont usually get far into carlsons interviews before it annoys me and i have to turn it off, but hes a very odd person, definitely not right . How are so many people in love with this very odd, deluded hypocrite?

This has been on the cards for a long time. Hopefully it will fail and Russia will regret this move

I really appreciate your thoughtful responses! I love talking with you and especially about important topics. I think you’re incredibly intelligent and generally well meaning which is why your stance on this one particular person and everything associated with him is so confusing because it doesn’t seem to align with the rest of your life from my perspective. I’m gonna go through both of your replies and try to give a # with my thoughts in case you would like to respond again or address particular subjects without addressing others. 1- If you’re going to claim Project 2025 is “an assault on the constitution” then you’re the one that’s going to need to substantiate such a claim. If you go through the Project 2025 website and pick out each topic and list which Article, clause, amendment, or Supreme Court ruling you believe that particular topic/ subject violates id be more than happy to have that discussion with you. If it’s a Supreme Court decision you think is violated by one of the Project’s articles then please describe how you think the current Supreme Court would rule if said Project 2025 topic were brought to The SCOTUS on appeal. If the SCOTUS would overturn precedent / reinterpret a specific legal principle so as to render the appealed subject legal / constitutional please list that as well. This is an especially interesting point to me because it’s not like Project 2025 wasn’t written and designed by some of the best legal minds in America so as to withstand legal appeal. 2- What do you define as the MAGA movement? Is it anyone who votes for him? Anyone who supports his policies? Do you not see a problem with writing off / labeling as other tens of millions of people just because you don’t like an individual person in a particular political party? 3- Who says it’s a problem when “not nice” people are in charge of a country? I’m trying to be really generous here but this just seems like outright opinion that flies in the face of fact. FDR wasn’t a nice person (a literal racist) and he seemed to do ok by the world. Andrew Jackson committed genocide against the native peoples of Georgia & Florida which might not have been “nice” but was no doubt a great strategic benefit to The United States and her citizens. 4- You’re right that we saw Helsinki and all of the rest of Trump’s first term. It’s what makes suggestions of fascism around him and his supporters seem so disingenuous. I’ve read Fascism by M.A. It is why the contemporary left in America & Europe so terrifying. The racial / sexist / religious discrimination that were the hallmarks of the socialists of pre WW2 Germany are the exact same ideas and playbook we are seeing today. This isn’t just my opinion either regarding Trump’s first term. The CNN poll released in late April showed: “in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to work in Trump’s favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure. Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%. Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success. There is some overlap in views of the two most recent presidents’ achievements, with 14% of Americans saying they consider both are failures, while 8% say both are successes. About half of registered voters, 47%, consider Biden’s presidency thus far to be a failure while saying Trump’s was a success, while only 30% say Biden’s has been successful and that Trump’s was not.” Even the Labour’s shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy acknowledges that Trump is “misunderstood” with regards to NATO / Europe (see BBC). 5- There are more than 44 people in a presidential Administrations so this stat in general is pretty cherry picked but you’re missing important context with that point anyways. Many in his former administration refused to endorse him but almost all of them have said they would still vote for him (and especially against Biden). With that context all that stat means is that many thought there would be a better republican for the job which isn’t a ridiculous opinion but one the American people rejected during the primaries. 6- Think whatever you want about his comments to the media while appearing in court. Apparently his comments resonate more with the wider public than with either of us personally. 7- The Hill’s polling averages might have said that for a day / individual poll but Trump is winning the Wisconsin state polling averages by over 4pts which is in line with the other swing state margins (actually lower than his margins in the rest of the states). More to the point you do realize that individual swing states & their polls are the best measure for where the election is trending right? Trump’s margin is about 6% in the swing states which correlates pretty nicely to the CNN poll referenced above (Trump 49% v. Biden 43%). That top line national number needs to be around Biden +4% nationally for Biden to even have a shot and that’s not factoring in the trend in polling we’ve seen across the years where polls dramatically underestimate Trump’s numbers. All this is to say that even in spite of Biden’s solid SOTU the reputable/ reliable polling shows things moving in the wrong direction for Biden on top of him being about 10%pts behind where he would need to be right now for the election to be close. I get really confused when I hear you say things like things are improving for Biden when they’re getting worse: “Negative views of Biden’s work in office have held for much of his presidency. In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his handling of the job and 40% approve, about the same as it’s been in CNN polling for more than a year. Even Biden’s strongest issue approval ratings in the poll are also in negative territory, with 45% approving of his handling of health care policy and 44% approving his handling of student loan debt. And his worst issue approval rating - for his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza - yields 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including an 81% disapproval mark among those younger than 35 and majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).” “Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%.” Sure this is just one poll as a quote but like you said if you go through the swing states and look at the polls on The Hill’s portal it’s clear Trump’s position is improving which again leaves people feeling like you’re just gaslighting them to peddle left wing copium. 8- Your framing of Trump’s court cases / indictments is exactly the sort of thing that send chills down American spines and leaves many worried about the rise of left wing authoritarianism. It’s not just that you want to see the legal system used as a political tool to try to achieve your desired outcome but the fact that you ignore basic Constitutional principles like innocence until proven guilty. Trump’s indictments, by definition, are allegations and not proven facts like you’re projecting them as. Even more astonishingly is the fact that these accusations of fascism on Trump’s part ignore the fact that he didn’t have his political enemies prosecuted when there was plenty of indictable situations available to him / the DOJ to pursue. You do the same thing with the Jean Carroll stuff. You use wording that implies that Trump was convicted in a criminal court for a sexual crime when in reality he was merely found liable for financial damages in a civil court. Criminal convictions require proof “beyond a reasonable doubt” while civil rulings do not. Therefore, a minimum, there is at least reasonable doubt that anything alleged in that court case is true but you treat it as if he is a convicted rapist (which again creates doubts for people in your ability to analyze him professionally). 9- Fox is a bunch of clowns but are you really suggesting that a show that only gets 2M views a night is by itself shaping the whole public discussion surrounding Trump? This is the sort of conspiratorial thinking that reinforces my view of you essentially being a left wing version of Q anon. Just like them I think you intended to do good (like they thought they were saving children) but you’ve gotten lost in your own circle of cognitive dissonance/ Chinese communist propaganda / half truths. Put another way I become very concerned when I see you spreading this sort rhetoric or statements like “the MAGA movement is morally compromised” because that’s just 1 step away from the stuff Putin says about all Ukrainians being compromised by The West. People that say stuff like that are the same people on college campuses across America right now chanting “death to America”. Most importantly, none of the above is to say my opinions on Trump have changed. He is still a moral monster and American politics will likely improve once he is dead because he won’t be able to used a boogie man anymore so actual policy debate will be more likely.

Ukraine will not go through this may.

G’day all 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦☕️🫖